Sensitivity of tropical climate to low-level clouds in the NCEP climate forecast system

In this work, we examine the sensitivity of tropical mean climate and seasonal cycle to low clouds and cloud liquid water path (CLWP) by prescribing them in the NCEP climate forecast system (CFS). It is found that the change of low cloud cover alone has a minor influence on the amount of net shortwave radiation reaching the surface and on the warm biases in the southeastern Atlantic. In experiments where CLWP is prescribed using observations, the mean climate in the tropics is improved significantly, implying that shortwave radiation absorption by CLWP is mainly responsible for reducing the excessive surface net shortwave radiation over the southern oceans in the CFS. Corresponding to large CLWP values in the southeastern oceans, the model generates large low cloud amounts. That results in a reduction of net shortwave radiation at the ocean surface and the warm biases in the sea surface temperature in the southeastern oceans. Meanwhile, the cold tongue and associated surface wind stress in the eastern oceans become stronger and more realistic. As a consequence of the overall improvement of the tropical mean climate, the seasonal cycle in the tropical Atlantic is also improved. Based on the results from these sensitivity experiments, we propose a model bias correction approach, in which CLWP is prescribed only in the southeastern Atlantic by using observed annual mean climatology of CLWP. It is shown that the warm biases in the southeastern Atlantic are largely eliminated, and the seasonal cycle in the tropical Atlantic Ocean is significantly improved. Prescribing CLWP in the CFS is then an effective interim technique to reduce model biases and to improve the simulation of seasonal cycle in the tropics.     

Coupling between subtropical cloud feedback and the local hydrological cycle in a climate model

In HadGEM2-A, AMIP experiments forced with observed sea surface temperatures respond to uniform and patterned +4 K SST perturbations with strong positive cloud feedbacks in the subtropical stratocumulus/trade cumulus transition regions. Over the subtropical Northeast Pacific at 137°W/26°N, the boundary layer cloud fraction reduces considerably in the AMIP +4 K patterned SST experiment. The near-surface wind speed and the air-sea temperature difference reduces, while the near-surface relative humidity increases. These changes limit the local increase in surface evaporation to just 3 W/m² or 0.6 %/K. Previous studies have suggested that increases in surface evaporation may be required to maintain maritime boundary layer cloud in a warmer climate. This suggests that the supply of water vapour from surface evaporation may not be increasing enough to maintain the low level cloud fraction in the warmer climate in HadGEM2-A. Sensitivity tests which force the surface evaporation to increase substantially in the +4 K patterned SST experiment result in smaller changes in boundary layer cloud and a weaker cloud feedback in HadGEM2-A, supporting this idea. Although global mean surface evaporation in climate models increases robustly with global temperature (and the resulting increase in atmospheric radiative cooling), local values may increase much less, having a significant impact on cloud feedback. These results suggest a coupling between cloud feedback and the hydrological cycle via changes in the patterns of surface evaporation. A better understanding of both the factors controlling local changes in surface evaporation and the sensitivity of clouds to such changes may be required to understand the reasons for inter-model differences in subtropical cloud feedback.     

Perturbed physics ensemble using the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM without flux corrections: experimental design and results

In this study, we constructed a perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) for the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (CGCM) to investigate the parametric uncertainty of climate sensitivity (CS). Previous studies of PPEs have mainly used the atmosphere-slab ocean models. A few PPE studies using a CGCM applied flux corrections, because perturbations in parameters can lead to large radiation imbalances at the top of the atmosphere and climate drifts. We developed a method to prevent climate drifts in PPE experiments using the MIROC5 CGCM without flux corrections. We simultaneously swept 10 parameters in atmosphere and surface schemes. The range of CS (estimated from our 35 ensemble members) was not wide (2.2–3.2?°C). The shortwave cloud feedback related to changes in middle-level cloud albedo dominated the variations in the total feedback. We found three performance metrics for the present climate simulations of middle-level cloud albedo, precipitation, and ENSO amplitude that systematically relate to the variations in shortwave cloud feedback in this PPE.     

The disposition of radiative energy in the global climate system: GCM-calculated versus observational estimates

 A comprehensive dataset of direct observations is used to assess the representation of surface and atmospheric radiation budgets in general circulation models (GCMs). Based on combined measurements of surface and collocated top-of-the-atmosphere fluxes at more than 700 sites, a lack of absorption of solar radiation within the atmosphere is identified in the ECHAM3 GCM, indicating that the shortwave atmospheric absorption calculated in the current generation of GCMs, typically between 60 and 70 Wm^-2, is too low by 10–20 Wm^-2. The surface and atmospheric radiation budgets of a new version of the Max-Planck Institute GCM, the ECHAM4, differ considerably from other GCMs in both short- and longwave ranges. The amount of solar radiation absorbed in the atmosphere (90 Wm^-2) is substantially larger than typically found in current GCMs, resulting in a lower absorption at the surface (147 Wm^-2). It is shown that this revised disposition of solar energy within the climate system generally reduces the biases compared to the observational estimates of surface and atmospheric absorption. The enhanced shortwave absorption in the ECHAM4 atmosphere is due to an increase in both simulated clear-sky and cloud absorption compared to ECHAM3. The increased absorption in the cloud-free atmosphere is related to an enhanced absorption of water vapor, and is supported in stand-alone comparisons of the radiation scheme with synchronous observations. The increased cloud absorption, on the other hand, is shown to be predominantly spurious due to the coarse spectral resolution of the ECHAM4 radiation code, thus providing no physical explanation for the “anomalous cloud absorption” phenomenon. Quantitatively, however, an additional increase of atmospheric absorption due to clouds as in ECHAM4 is, at least at low latitudes, not in conflict with the observational estimates, though this does not rule out the possibility that other effects, such as highly absorbing aerosols, could equally contribute to close the gap between models and observations. At higher latitudes, however, the increased cloud absorption is not supported by the observational dataset. Overall, this study points out that not only the clouds, but also the cloud-free atmosphere might be responsible for the discrepancies between observational and simulated estimates of shortwave atmospheric absorption. The smaller absorption of solar radiation at the surface in ECHAM4 is compensated by an increased downward longwave flux (344 Wm^-2), which is larger than in other GCMs. The enhanced downward longwave flux is supported by surface measurements and by a stand-alone validation of the radiation scheme for clear-sky conditions. The enhanced flux also ensures that a sufficient amount of energy is available at the surface to maintain a realistic intensity of the global hydrological cycle. In contrast, a one-handed revision of only the shortwave radiation budget to account for the increased shortwave absorption in GCM atmospheres may induce a global hydrological cycle that is too weak. Received: 26 February 1998 / Accepted: 18 May 1998     

The respective roles of surface temperature driven feedbacks and tropospheric adjustment to CO2 in CMIP5 transient climate simulations

An overview of radiative climate feedbacks and ocean heat uptake efficiency diagnosed from idealized transient climate change experiments of 14 CMIP5 models is presented. Feedbacks explain about two times more variance in transient climate response across the models than ocean heat uptake efficiency. Cloud feedbacks can clearly be identified as the main source of inter-model spread. Models with strong longwave feedbacks in the tropics feature substantial increases in cloud ice around the tropopause suggestive of changes in cloud-top heights. The lifting of the tropical tropopause goes together with a general weakening of the tropical circulation. Distinctive inter-model differences in cloud shortwave feedbacks occur in the subtropics including the equatorward flanks of the storm-tracks. Related cloud fraction changes are not confined to low clouds but comprise middle level clouds as well. A reduction in relative humidity through the lower and mid troposphere can be identified as being the main associated large-scale feature. Experiments with prescribed sea surface temperatures are analyzed in order to investigate whether the diagnosed feedbacks from the transient climate simulations contain a tropospheric adjustment component that is not conveyed through the surface temperature response. The strengths of the climate feedbacks computed from atmosphere-only experiments with prescribed increases in sea surface temperatures, but fixed CO₂ concentrations, are close to the ones derived from the transient experiment. Only the cloud shortwave feedback exhibits discernible differences which, however, can not unequivocally be attributed to tropospheric adjustment to CO₂. Although for some models a tropospheric adjustment component is present in the global mean shortwave cloud feedback, an analysis of spatial patterns does not lend support to the view that cloud feedbacks are dominated by their tropospheric adjustment part. Nevertheless, there is positive correlation between the strength of tropospheric adjustment processes and cloud feedbacks across different climate models.     

Climate sensitivity and climate change under strong forcing

A version of the National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) coupled climate model is integrated under current climate conditions and in a series of experiments with climate forcings ranging from modest to very strong. The purpose of the experiments is to investigate the nature and behaviour of the climate feedback/sensitivity of the model, its evolution with time and climate state, the robustness of model parameterizations as forcing levels increase, and the possibility of a “runaway” warming under strong forcing. The model is integrated for 50 years, or to failure, after increasing the solar constant by 2.5, 10, 15, 25, 35, and 45% of its control value. The model successfully completes 50 years of integration for the 2.5, 10, 15, and 25% solar constant increases but fails for increases of 35% and 45%. The effective global climate sensitivity evolves with time and analysis indicates that a new equilibrium will be obtained for the 2.5, 10, and 15% cases but that runaway warming is underway for the 25% increase in solar constant. Feedback processes are analysed both locally and globally in terms of longwave and shortwave, clear-sky/surface, and cloud forcing components. Feedbacks in the system must be negative overall and of sufficient strength to balance the positive forcing if the system is to attain a new equilibrium. Longwave negative feedback processes strengthen in a reasonably linear fashion as temperature increases but shortwave feedback processes do not. In particular, solar cloud feedback becomes less negative and, for the 25% forcing case, eventually becomes positive, resulting in temperatures that “run away”. The conditions under which a runaway climate warming might occur have previously been investigated using simpler models. For sufficiently strong forcing, the greenhouse effect of increasing water vapour in a warmer atmosphere is expected to overwhelm the negative feedback of the longwave cooling to space as temperature increases. This is not, however, the reason for the climate instability experienced in the GCM. Instead, the model experiences a “cloud feedback” warming whereby the decrease in cloudiness that occurs when temperature increases beyond a critical value results in an increased absorption of solar radiation by the system, leading to the runaway warming.     

Climate feedbacks determined using radiative kernels in a multi-thousand member ensemble of AOGCMs

The use of radiative kernels to diagnose climate feedbacks is a recent development that may be applied to existing climate change simulations. We apply the radiative kernel technique to transient simulations from a multi-thousand member perturbed physics ensemble of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, comparing distributions of model feedbacks with those taken from the CMIP-3 multi GCM ensemble. Although the range of clear sky longwave feedbacks in the perturbed physics ensemble is similar to that seen in the multi-GCM ensemble, the kernel technique underestimates the net clear-sky feedbacks (or the radiative forcing) in some perturbed models with significantly altered humidity distributions. In addition, the compensating relationship between global mean atmospheric lapse rate feedback and water vapor feedback is found to hold in the perturbed physics ensemble, but large differences in relative humidity distributions in the ensemble prevent the compensation from holding at a regional scale. Both ensembles show a similar range of response of global mean net cloud feedback, but the mean of the perturbed physics ensemble is shifted towards more positive values such that none of the perturbed models exhibit a net negative cloud feedback. The perturbed physics ensemble contains fewer models with strong negative shortwave cloud feedbacks and has stronger compensating positive longwave feedbacks. A principal component analysis used to identify dominant modes of feedback variation reveals that the perturbed physics ensemble produces very different modes of climate response to the multi-model ensemble, suggesting that one may not be used as an analog for the other in estimates of uncertainty in future response. Whereas in the multi-model ensemble, the first order variation in cloud feedbacks shows compensation between longwave and shortwave components, in the perturbed physics ensemble the shortwave feedbacks are uncompensated, possibly explaining the larger range of climate sensitivities observed in the perturbed simulations. Regression analysis suggests that the parameters governing cloud formation, convection strength and ice fall speed are the most significant in altering climate feedbacks. Perturbations of oceanic and sulfur cycle parameters have relatively little effect on the atmospheric feedbacks diagnosed by the kernel technique.     

Influence of non-feedback variations of radiation on the determination of climate feedback

Recent studies have estimated the magnitude of climate feedback based on the correlation between time variations in outgoing radiation flux and sea surface temperature (SST). This study investigates the influence of the natural non-feedback variation (noise) of the flux occurring independently of SST on the determination of climate feedback. The observed global monthly radiation flux is used from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) for the period 2000–2008. In the observations, the time lag correlation of radiation and SST shows a distorted curve with low statistical significance for shortwave radiation while a significant maximum at zero lag for longwave radiation over the tropics. This observational feature is explained by simulations with an idealized energy balance model where we see that the non-feedback variation plays the most significant role in distorting the curve in the lagged correlation graph, thus obscuring the exact value of climate feedback. We also demonstrate that the climate feedback from the tropical longwave radiation in the CERES data is not significantly affected by the noise. We further estimate the standard deviation of radiative forcings (mainly from the noise) relative to that of the non-radiative forcings, i.e., the noise level from the observations and atmosphere–ocean coupled climate model simulations in the framework of the simple model. The estimated noise levels in both CERES (>13 %) and climate models (11–28 %) are found to be far above the critical level (~5 %) that begins to misrepresent climate feedback.     

层状云微物理参数反演及其辐射效应的个例研究

利用毫米波云雷达、微波辐射计联合反演方法,对2015年11月11日安徽寿县的一次层状云过程的云参数进行了反演,将所得云参数加入到SBDART辐射传输模式中,进行辐射通量计算,并将计算的地面辐射通量与观测的地面辐射通量进行了对比分析。研究表明:1)利用毫米波雷达和微波辐射计数据联合反演的云参数比较可靠;2)利用SBDART模式并结合反演的云参数,可以准确实时地计算地面及其他高度层的长短波辐射通量;3)在反演的云参数中,光学厚度对地面各种辐射通量的影响是最大的,云层的光学厚度越大,到达地面的太阳短波辐射越小,地面反射短波辐射也越小。另外云底温度越高,云体向下发射的红外长波辐射越大。地面向上的长波辐射是地面温度的普朗克函数,随地面温度而变;4)云对地面的短波辐射强迫为负值,对地面有降温的作用。云对地面的长波辐射强迫是一个正值,对地面有一个增温的作用;5)云对地面的净辐射强迫随时间变化很大,它的正负与太阳高度角和云参数有关。     

Planktonic dimethylsulfide and cloud albedo: An estimate of the feedback response

Partial control of climate by the biosphere may be possible through a chain of processes that ultimately links marine plankton production of dimethylsulfide (DMS) with changes in cloud albedo (Charlson et al., 1987). Changes in cloud optical properties can have profound impacts on atmospheric radiation transfer and, hence, the surface environment. In this study, we have developed a simple model that incorporates empirically based parameterizations to account for the biological control of cloud droplet concentration in a first attempt to estimate the strength of the DMS-cloud albedo feedback mechanism. We find that the feedback reduces the global climatic response to imposed perturbations in solar insolation by less than 7%. Likewise, it modifies the strength of other feedbacks affecting surface insolation over oceans by roughly the same amount. This suggests that the DMS-cloud albedo mechanism will be unable to substantially reduce climate sensitivity, although these results should be confirmed with less idealized models when more is known about the net production of DMS by the marine biosphere and its relation to aerosol/cloud microphysics and climate.     

An investigation of the sensitivity of a land surface model to climate change using a reduced form model

 In an illustration of a model evaluation methodology, a multivariate reduced form model is developed to evaluate the sensitivity of a land surface model to changes in atmospheric forcing. The reduced form model is constructed in terms of a set of ten integrative response metrics, including the timing of spring snow melt, sensible and latent heat fluxes in summer, and soil temperature. The responses are evaluated as a function of a selected set of six atmospheric forcing perturbations which are varied simultaneously, and hence each may be thought of as a six-dimensional response surface. The sensitivities of the land surface model are interdependent and in some cases illustrate a physically plausible feedback process. The important predictors of land surface response in a changing climate are the atmospheric temperature and downwelling longwave radiation. Scenarios characterized by warming and drying produce a large relative response compared to warm, moist scenarios. The insensitivity of the model to increases in precipitation and atmospheric humidity is expected to change in applications to coupled models, since these parameters are also strongly implicated, through the representation of clouds, in the simulation of both longwave and shortwave radiation. Received: 27 March 2000 / Accepted: 11 September 2000     

Current problems in the stratocumulus-topped atmospheric boundary layer

Extended sheets of stratocumulus (Sc) in the upper part of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) often occur under appropriate meteorological conditions. These cloud decks are important both in climate studies and in weather forecasting. We review the current knowledge of the turbulent structure of the ABL capped by a cloud deck, in the light of recent observations and model studies. The most important physical processes determining this structure are longwave radiative cooling at cloud top, shortwave radiative wanning by absorption in the cloud, surface buoyancy flux, and wind shear in the ABL. As a result, turbulence can cause entrainment against the buoyancy jump at cloud top. In cases where only longwave radiative fluxes and surface buoyancy fluxes are important, the turbulent structure is relatively well understood. When shortwave radiative fluxes and/or wind shear are also important, the resulting turbulent structure may change considerably. A decoupling of the cloud from the sub-cloud layer or of the top of the cloud from the rest of the ABL is then regularly observed. In no cases are the details of the entrainment at cloud top understood well enough to derive a relatively simple formulation that is consistent with observations. Cloud-top entrainment instability may lead to the break-up of a cloud deck (but also to cloud deepening). The role of mesoscale circulations in determining fractional cloudiness is not yet well understood.     

Role of Climate in the Modern Condition of Lake Victoria

Summary Comparison of historical and recent climatic data for Lake Victoria, a great lake in the high elevation tropics of East Africa, demonstrates changes in surface temperature, air moisture, atmospheric transparency, and wind shear from conditions 35 years ago. The changes appear to be part of a global change in climate conditions of the high elevation tropics. The physical and ecological conditions of Lake Victoria appear responsive to lake-atmosphere interactions through mechanisms of wind stress and surface heat fluxes. Lake temperatures, mixing regimes, oxygen levels, and primary production have changed in parallel to air temperature, humidity, atmospheric transparency, and wind speeds between about 1960 and the present. Data indicate strong coupling between meteorological components of lake heat balance and both biological and chemical conditions. Many features of the apparent modern eutrophication of Lake Victoria may have been accelerated or exaggerated by the climate effects. The analysis suggests a mechanism for feedback of climate on lake condition which, if general, might provide a modern analog for periodic changes reported in the fossil diatom community of the lake over the past 10 millenia. Received April 20, 1997 Revised January 1, 1998     

RegCM4对中国东部区域气候模拟的辐射收支分析

利用卫星和再分析数据,评估了区域气候模式Reg CM4对中国东部地区辐射收支的基本模拟能力,重点关注地表净短波(SNS)、地表净长波(SNL)、大气顶净短波(TNS)、大气顶净长波(TNL)4个辐射分量。结果表明:1)短波辐射的误差值在夏季较大,而长波辐射的误差值在冬季较大。但各辐射分量模拟误差的空间分布在冬、夏季都有较好的一致性。2)对于地表辐射通量,SNS表现为正偏差(向下净短波偏多),在各分量中误差最大,区域平均误差值近50 W/m2;SNL表现为负偏差(向上净长波偏多);对于大气顶辐射通量,TNS和TNL分别表现为"北负南正"的误差分布和整体正偏差。3)利用空间相关和散点线性回归方法对4个辐射分量的模拟误差进行归因分析,发现在云量、地表反照率、地表温度三个直接影响因子中,云量模拟误差的贡献最大,中国东部地区云量模拟显著偏少。     

Atmospheric radiative feedbacks associated with transient climate change and climate variability

This study examines in detail the ‘atmospheric’ radiative feedbacks operating in a coupled General Circulation Model (GCM). These feedbacks (defined as the change in top of atmosphere radiation per degree of global surface temperature change) are due to responses in water vapour, lapse rate, clouds and surface albedo. Two types of radiative feedback in particular are considered: those arising from century scale ‘transient’ warming (from a 1% per annum compounded CO₂ increase), and those operating under the model’s own unforced ‘natural’ variability. The time evolution of the transient (or ‘secular’) feedbacks is first examined. It is found that both the global strength and the latitudinal distributions of these feedbacks are established within the first two or three decades of warming, and thereafter change relatively little out to 100 years. They also closely approximate those found under equilibrium warming from a ‘mixed layer’ ocean version of the same model forced by a doubling of CO₂. These secular feedbacks are then compared with those operating under unforced (interannual) variability. For water vapour, the interannual feedback is only around two-thirds the strength of the secular feedback. The pattern reveals widespread regions of negative feedback in the interannual case, in turn resulting from patterns of circulation change and regions of decreasing as well as increasing surface temperature. Considering the vertical structure of the two, it is found that although positive net mid to upper tropospheric contributions dominate both, they are weaker (and occur lower) under interannual variability than under secular change and are more narrowly confined to the tropics. Lapse rate feedback from variability shows weak negative feedback over low latitudes combined with strong positive feedback in mid-to-high latitudes resulting in no net global feedback—in contrast to the dominant negative low to mid-latitude response seen under secular climate change. Surface albedo feedback is, however, slightly stronger under interannual variability—partly due to regions of extremely weak, or even negative, feedback over Antarctic sea ice in the transient experiment. Both long and shortwave global cloud feedbacks are essentially zero on interannual timescales, with the shortwave term also being very weak under climate change, although cloud fraction and optical property components show correlation with global temperature both under interannual variability and transient climate change. The results of this modelling study, although for a single model only, suggest that the analogues provided by interannual variability may provide some useful pointers to some aspects of climate change feedback strength, particularly for water vapour and surface albedo, but that structural differences will need to be heeded in such an analysis.     

Climate feedback efficiency and synergy

Earth’s climate sensitivity to radiative forcing induced by a doubling of the atmospheric CO₂ is determined by feedback mechanisms, including changes in atmospheric water vapor, clouds and surface albedo, that act to either amplify or dampen the response. The climate system is frequently interpreted in terms of a simple energy balance model, in which it is assumed that individual feedback mechanisms are additive and act independently. Here we test these assumptions by systematically controlling, or locking, the radiative feedbacks in a state-of-the-art climate model. The method is shown to yield a near-perfect decomposition of change into partial temperature contributions pertaining to forcing and each of the feedbacks. In the studied model water vapor feedback stands for about half the temperature change, CO₂-forcing about one third, while cloud and surface albedo feedback contributions are relatively small. We find a close correspondence between forcing, feedback and partial surface temperature response for the water vapor and surface albedo feedbacks, while the cloud feedback is inefficient in inducing surface temperature change. Analysis suggests that cloud-induced warming in the upper tropical troposphere, consistent with rising convective cloud anvils in a warming climate enhances the negative lapse-rate feedback, thereby offsetting some of the warming that would otherwise be attributable to this positive cloud feedback. By subsequently combining feedback mechanisms we find a positive synergy acting between the water vapor feedback and the cloud feedback; that is, the combined cloud and water vapor feedback is greater than the sum of its parts. Negative synergies surround the surface albedo feedback, as associated cloud and water vapor changes dampen the anticipated climate change induced by retreating snow and ice. Our results highlight the importance of treating the coupling between clouds, water vapor and temperature in a deepening troposphere.     

上海秋冬季地表能量平衡及CO2通量特征分析

利用2012年11月11日至2013年1月20日上海秋冬季涡动相关通量观测资料,对比分析地表能量平衡和CO₂通量在不同天气条件下的日变化特征。结果表明：2012-2013年上海晴天和多云天气条件下,最大能量通量为储热项,其次为感热项;用于蒸发的潜热通量项最小,低于50 w·m^-2。储热项日峰值出现在11时,出现时间早于净辐射通量,而在日落前转为负值。感热项日变化曲线并不以12时为中心呈对称分布,日落后感热项仍为明显正值。中午至日落时波文比值为3以上。感热通量受风向影响最大,在主导风向为西北风时,感热通量日峰值从其他风向的175 w·m^-2左右减小至120 w·m^-2左右。霾和云对短波辐射均表现为衰减作用,云的衰减作用明显大于霾。云使地表向上长波辐射和净长波辐射明显减少,而使大气逆辐射增加。晴天条件下,全天表现为CO₂排放源,且日变化呈双峰型,两个峰值出现时间正好对应上下班高峰时段,傍晚峰值大于早上峰值。     

气候模式中云的次网格结构对全球辐射影响的研究

利用一种用于大尺度天气、气候模式的随机云产生器(SCG)和独立气柱近似(ICA)辐射算法,研究了次网格云的水平结构以及垂直重叠结构对全球辐射场的影响.比较了水平非均匀云(IHCLD)和水平均匀云(HCLD)的辐射场差异以及云的最大.随机重叠(MRO)和一般重叠(GenO)的辐射场差异.结果显示,与HCLD相比,IHCLD一方面可增加地面净短波辐射通量,纬向平均最大值(约1W/m~2)和次大值(约0.6 W/m~2)分别位于高纬度低云密集地区和对流旺盛的热带地区;另一方面可增加大气顶的净长波辐射通量,纬向平均最大值(0.3 W/m~2)出现在热带地区.不同的重叠结构对短波和长波辐射收支也有很大的影响.MRO和GenO的短波辐射通量差异在热带辐合带最大.达到30-40W/m~2,在高纬度低云带的纬向平均也可达到5W/m~2左右;长波辐射通量差异具有相似的地区分布,但量值相对较小.不同重叠结构可以造成大气上下层的辐射加热率差异,影响大气热力层结.云的水平和垂直结构对有云区域辐射收支的影响将改变大气热力、动力状况以及水汽条件,从而影响模拟的气候系统的演变.文中采用单向云-辐射计算,排除了与气候系统其他过程复杂的相互作用,从而使其结果具有一定的普适性,可为不同大尺度模式进行次网格云辐射参数化提供参考.     

A new framework for isolating individual feedback processes in coupled general circulation climate models. Part I: formulation

This paper proposes a coupled atmosphere–surface climate feedback–response analysis method (CFRAM) as a new framework for estimating climate feedbacks in coupled general circulation models with a full set of physical parameterization packages. The formulation of the CFRAM is based on the energy balance in an atmosphere–surface column. In the CFRAM, the isolation of partial temperature changes due to an external forcing or an individual feedback is achieved by solving the linearized infrared radiation transfer model subject to individual energy flux perturbations (external or due to feedbacks). The partial temperature changes are addable and their sum is equal to the (total) temperature change (in the linear sense). The decomposition of feedbacks is based on the thermodynamic and dynamical processes that directly affect individual energy flux terms. Therefore, not only those feedbacks that directly affect the TOA radiative fluxes, such as water vapor, clouds, and ice-albedo feedbacks, but also those feedbacks that do not directly affect the TOA radiation, such as evaporation, convections, and convergence of horizontal sensible and latent heat fluxes, are explicitly included in the CFRAM. In the CFRAM, the feedback gain matrices measure the strength of individual feedbacks. The feedback gain matrices can be estimated from the energy flux perturbations inferred from individual parameterization packages and dynamical modules. The inter-model spread of a feedback gain matrix would help us to detect the origins of the uncertainty of future climate projections in climate model simulations.     

Solar absorption at the surface and in the atmosphere as determined by different observational methods

Summary The concept of effective cloud cover, elaborated on the basis of an assumption that changes in the net radiation at the top of the atmosphere are mainly caused by changing cloudiness, has been used to deduce solar surface radiation from satellite data. It has been shown that the method permits a calculation of solar surface absorption distributions that agree well with the results obtained by other authors and that the existing disagreement can be to a great extent ascribed to the differences in the data sets and analysis periods. The method allows use of early satellite measurements to get longer time series of the surface radiation budget. In this study, it has been applied to the Nimbus-7 ERB WFOV data for 1979–1986.The net solar flux at the TOA (top of the atmosphere) can be partitioned into absorption at the surface and within the atmosphere. The geographical distributions of all the three quantities as well as the zonal averages of the surface absorption for January and July have been described. Special objectives of the present study are to estimate the interannual standard deviation for the 8-year period and to analyse the shortwave cloud-radiative forcing distributions at the surface and especially within the atmosphere.The standard deviation of the TOA and the surface solar absorption shows a temporal asymmetry, being much larger in January than in July. Noticeable is the disappearance of the wintertime strong variability over the central Pacific in July. As can be expected, the strong variability areas coincide with the strong variability areas of the cloud amount, showing the values up to 27 Wm^–2 at the surface.According to our estimate, the shortwave cloud forcing at the surface is everywhere stronger than that at the TOA, so that the cloud forcing of the atmosphere is negative. This means that in the belt of 58.5° N–58.5° S a cloudy atmosphere absorbs more solar energy than a cloud-free atmosphere. Our mean annual value of the atmospheric cloud forcing for this belt is –11 Wm^–2 which is somewhat stronger than that obtained by other investigators. It must be stressed that this value is within the uncertainty limits.Shortwave cloud forcing of the atmosphere is the strongest in the lower latitude areas of heavy cloudiness above the continents and negligible in the midlatitudes in winter. This gives evidence that the value of the shortwave cloud forcing of the atmosphere is modified by a combination of cloud absorption and cloud albedo.With 4 Figures