南北极海冰变化及其影响因素的对比分析

海冰是海洋-大气交互系统的重要组成部分,与全球气候系统间存在灵敏的响应和反馈机制。本文选用欧洲空间局发布的1992—2008年海冰密集度数据分析了南北极海冰在时间和空间上的变化规律与趋势,并结合由美国环境预报中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP)和美国大气研究中心(National Center for Atmospheric Research, NCAR)联合制作的NCEP/NCAR气温数据和ENSO指数探讨了南北极海冰变化的影响因素。结果表明,北极海冰面积呈明显的减少趋势,其中夏季海冰最小月的减少更快。北冰洋中央海盆区、巴伦支海、喀拉海、巴芬湾和拉布拉多海的减少最明显。南极海冰面积呈微弱增加趋势,罗斯海、太平洋扇区和大西洋扇区的海冰增加。北极海冰面积与气温有显著的滞后1个月的负相关关系(P0.01)。北极升温显著,北冰洋中央海盆区、喀拉海、巴伦支海、巴芬湾和楚科奇海升温趋势最大,海冰减少很明显。南极在南大西洋、南太平洋呈降温趋势,海冰增加。北极海冰减少与39个月之后ONI的下降、40个月之后SOI的上升密切相关;南极海冰增加与7个月之后ONI的下降、6个月之后SOI的上升存在很好的响应关系。南北极海冰变化与三次ENSO的强暖与强冷事件有很好的对应关系。     

Modeling Arctic Ocean heat transport and warming episodes in the 20th century caused by the intruding Atlantic Water

This study investigates the Arctic Ocean warming episodes in the 20th century using both a high-resolution coupled global climate model and historical observations .The model,with no flux adjustment,reproduces well the Atlantic Water core temperature(AWCT) in the Arctic Ocean and shows that four largest decadal-scale warming episodes occurred in the 1930s,70s,80s,and 90s,in agreement with the hydrographic observational data.The difference is that there was no pre-warming prior to the 1930s episode,while there were two pre-warming episodes in the 1970s and 80s prior to the 1990s,leading the 1990s into the largest and prolonged warming in the 20th century.Over the last century,the simulated heat transport via Fram Strait and the Barents Sea was estimated to be,on average,31.32 TW and 14.82 TW,respectively,while the Bering Strait also provides 15.94 TW heat into the western Arctic Ocean.Heat transport into the Arctic Ocean by the Atlantic Water via Fram Strait and the Barents Sea correlates significantly with AWCT(C=0.75 ) at 0- lag.The modeled North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) index has a significant correlation with the heat transport(C=0.37).The observed AWCT has a significant correlation with both the modeled AWCT(C=0.49) and the heat transport(C=0.41). However,the modeled NAO index does not significantly correlate with either the observed AWCT(C=0.03) or modeled AWCT(C=0.16) at a zero-lag,indicating that the Arctic climate system is far more complex than expected.     

Recent status of bowhead whales, Balaena mysticetus, in the wintering grounds off West Greenland

Bowhead whales, Balaena mysticetus, belonging to the Davis Strait/Baffin Bay stock, have historically in Baffin Bay and Davis Strait, including waters along the west coast of Greenland in and near the entrance of Disko Bay. Aerial surveys of the Disko Bay region during late winter (1981, 1982, 1990,1991, 1993 and 1994) showed that it was still visited regularly by a few tens of whales. Commercial whaling on bowheads in Baffin Bay and Davis Strait ended in about 1915, but occasional killing continued until as recently as the 1970s. The low numbers of bowheads observed off West Greenland in recent years are consistent with the results of surveys of the summering grounds in the eastern Canadian Arctic, indicating that any recovery has been exceedingly slow. The only conclusion supported by the data is that the current stock size is a small fraction of what it was prior to commercial whaling.     

Analysis of satellite and model datasets for variability and trends in Arctic snow extent and depth, 1948–2006

This study aims to investigate the spatiotemporal trends in snow depth (SD) and snow cover extent (SCE) for Arctic lands, excluding Greenland, for the period 1948–2006. The investigation not only delineates how the Arctic regions are manifesting significant annual trends in both SD and SCE, but also provides a comprehensive understanding of their historical context. To achieve these objectives, the combined resources of the hydrological and biogeochemical model (CHANGE), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) weekly SCE data, and in situ observations of SD were used. Most regions in the Arctic exhibited a significant negative trend in SD over the 59 years of study. The magnitude of the negative trend was stronger in North America than in Eurasia, where the decrease became more significant, starting from the late 1980s, coinciding well with the temperature rise during that time. During the same period, the warming temperature caused a prominent decrease in deeper SDs (i.e., >35 cm), so that the corresponding SCEs exhibited negative anomalies, with the greatest declines being observed at SDs > 55 cm. In contrast, the SCEs for SD ≤ 35 cm showed increased anomalies during the most recent two decades. The increased anomalies signify a sequential result induced by the decrease in the SCEs with deeper SDs, rather than the expansion of snow to snow-free regions. These changes resulted in a northward shift of the shallow SD line, which took place to a highly significant degree in North America. These results suggest that the Arctic SCE and SD will undergo more intense changes in response to the future climate warming.     

白令海夏季水文结构年际变化特征研究

基于2008、2010、2012和2014年我国北极科学考察期间在白令海获取的水文观测数据,结合历史共享资料,通过对白令海水团、上层海洋热含量、净热通量变化、风场及海平面气压分布情况等的分析,探讨了白令海水文结构的年际变化特征及其原因。研究发现,白令海夏季的水团包括白令海上层水团(BUW)、中层水团(BIW)、深层水团(BDW)和白令海陆架水团(BSW)。白令海温盐分布差异最大、年际变化最剧烈的情况主要集中在上层水团。对比4年水团分布情况,最明显的变化是2012年7月调查区上层海水温度偏低,2014年7月上层海水温度偏高。这种异常变化在热含量方面表现为:2012年7月调查区各个测站上的热含量异常低,而2014年7月测站上的热含量都高于平均水平。着重研究了2014年7月海温偏高的原因,认为是由于陆架和海盆区分别有两种不同的形成机制造成:陆架区累积净热通量偏高,海水吸收热量升温;海盆区在异常强大而持久的海面气压(SLP)高压系统下,海面负的风应力旋度得到加强,从而引起持续的暖平流输送及强烈的Ekman抽吸作用,最终导致了上层海水偏暖。     

中国北方农牧交错带春季风速的年际变化与冬季海温的关系

利用中国北方农牧交错带1979—2016年64个气象台站的逐日风速资料、ERSST海温数据以及ERA-Interim再分析资料,探讨了前期冬季海温与北方农牧交错带春季风速年际变化的关系。研究表明,北方农牧交错带春季的风速存在强烈的逐年波动,年际方差占总方差的比例为36%。影响农牧交错带春季风速年际变化的前期冬季海温在北大西洋20°N~65°N区域呈现“负、正、负”的异常分布,在北太平洋10°N~55°N、130°W~180°区域呈现“负、正”的异常分布。冬季的海温异常与研究区春季风速年际变化联系的桥梁是北半球大尺度大气环流的异常。当北大西洋海温从高纬至低纬呈现“负、正、负”的异常分布时,从北大西洋至东亚位势高度呈明显的“正、负、正、负”的波列特征;当北太平洋海温从高纬至低纬呈现“负、正”的异常分布时,从北太平洋至东亚位势高度呈“负、正、负、正、负、正”的三波型分布。二者均能影响东亚地区春季大气环流的变化,导致东亚地区上空产生一个异常的气旋性环流,该气旋性环流在对流层中层与低层均存在,是造成研究区风速变化的直接原因。冬季海温与研究区春季风速的显著相关,说明冬季海温对农牧交错带春季风速的年际变化具有超前指示意义。利用北大西洋和北太平洋海温异常中心区的冬季海温作为预报因子,建立春季风速预报模型,可以解释风速年际变化的32%,回报交叉验证结果表明,海温与风速的时间滞后关系是显著和稳健的。     

Interannual variability in water masses in the Greenland Sea and adjacent areas

Oceanographic data covering the period 1950–1998 are used to determine interannual variations in the convection intensity and water mass structure in the Greenland Sea and adjacent areas. Extremely cold winters throughout 1965–1970 assisted intensification of the water vertical exchange in the Greenland and Norwegian seas. As a result, cold and fresh Greenland Sea Deep Water (GSDW) production was extremely high in the central Greenland Sea while in the southern Norwegian Sea warm and salty water spread downwards. The recent rapid warming in the Greenland Sea Gyre interior from 1980 originates, we argue, from an increase in the Atlantic Water (AW) temperature due to the advection of warm waters into the region with the Return Atlantic Current. The negative water temperature and salinity trends in the upper 300 m layer of the Atlantic Water in the Norwegian Sea prevailed during 1950–1990, whereas during 1980–1990 the water temperature trends are indicative of warming of that layer. Observation series obtained onboard the Ocean Weather Ship Mike confirmed the existence of layers with advectiondriven high oxygen concentrations in intermediate and deep layers. The depth of oxygen maxima and the values of oceanographic parameters at this horizon can be regarded as indicators of the convection intensity in the Arctic domain. A simultaneous rise in NAO index and GSDW temperature points to a link between atmospheric and thermohaline circulation. Weakening in water exchange with the North Atlantic could be the reason for the Polar Water recirculation increase within the Nordic seas.     

Relationships between variations of the land–ocean–atmosphere system of northeastern Asia and northwestern North America

This study is a broad-scale synthesis of information on climate changes in two Arctic terrestrial regions, eastern Siberia and the Alaska–Yukon area of North America. Over the past 60 years (1951–2010), the trends of temperature and precipitation in the two regions are broadly similar in their seasonality. However, atmospheric advection influences the two regions differently during winter. The differential advective effects are much weaker in the other seasons. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is the strongest correlator with interannual variability in the two regions, followed by the Arctic Oscillation and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation.Projected changes by the late 21st Century are qualitatively similar to the changes that have been ongoing over the past 60 years, although the rate of change increases modestly under mid-range forcing scenarios (e.g., the A1B scenario). The greatest warming is projected to occur farther north over the Arctic Ocean in response to sea ice loss. Precipitation is projected to increase by all models, although increases in evapotranspiration preclude conclusions about trends toward wetter or drier land surface conditions. A notable feature of the future climate simulations is a strong maximum of pressure decreases in the Bering Sea region, implying further advective changes.     

Trends and variability of sea ice in Baffin Bay and Davis Strait, 1953–2001

The extent and duration of sea ice in Baffin Bay and Davis Strait has a major impact on the timing and strength of the marine production along West Greenland. The advance and retreat of the sea ice follows a predictable pattern, with maximum extent typically in March. We examine the area of sea ice in March in three overlapping study regions centred on Disko Bay on the west coast of Greenland. Sea ice concentration estimates derived from satellite passive microwave data are available for the years 1979-2001. We extend the record back in time by digitizing ice charts from the Danish Meteorological Institute, 1953-1981. There is reasonable agreement between the chart data and the satellite data during the three years of overlap: 1979-1981. We find a significant increasing trend in sea ice for the 49-year period (1953-2001) for the study regions that extend into Davis Strait and Baffin Bay. The cyclical nature of the wintertime ice area is also evident, with a period of about 8 to 9 years. Correlation of the winter sea ice concentration with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index shows moderately high values in Baffin Bay. The correlation of ice concentration with the previous winter's NAO is high in Davis Strait and suggests that next winter's ice conditions can be predicted to some extent by this winter's NAO index.     

NEW HIGH-RESOLUTION ALKENONE RECORD OF LAST GLACIAL TO HOLOCENE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN THE EAST-EQUATORIAL SOUTH ATLANTIC OCEAN

ABSTRACT. A new high-resolution, alkenone-de-rived record of sea-surface temperature (SST) change covering the last 26000 years was obtained from the east-equatorial Atlantic off the Congo River. Temperature fluctuations correspond to climate change recorded in other marine and terrestrial archives of the region. The maximum temperature difference between 26000 years BP ago and the Holocene climate optimum around 6000 years BP was 4.3°C, corroborating other SST estimates from the same area. The coldest conditions were followed by a warming that began at 24000 calendar years BP, a time when Northern Hemisphere ice sheets were still at their maximal position. This comparatively early warming is in agreement with previous findings from the east-equatorial South Atlantic. After a relatively stable period between 21500 and 14500 calendar years BP, a second warming began at 14500 calendar years BP which coincides with the onset of the African Humid Period. A cool period at 11500 calendar years BP halted this warming but the trend of increasing temperatures began again at 10000 calendar years BP, this time through large-scale oscillations. The warmest time, around 6000 calendar years BP, was followed by a modest cooling that coincides with the end of the African Humid Period and the onset of Neoglaciation on the African continent. Following this the record shows two distinct warming-cooling cycles during the late Holocene.     

北极海冰与大气环流耦合主模态的时空特征分析

对1979—2009年月平均的CFSR（The Climate Forecast System Reanalysis）海冰密集度（SIC）和海平面气压（SLP）资料进行多变量经验正交函数分解（MV—EOF）,得出耦合主模态,并通过对温度、位势高度和风场的回归分析,进一步探寻海冰与大气环流的关系,第一模态SLP的特征为北极涛动（AO）,SIC呈离散的正负中心分布但大体为东西反位相,AO正位相时,喀拉海、拉普捷夫海、东西伯利亚海和鄂霍次克海海冰减少,巴芬湾、波弗特海、楚科奇海和白令海海冰增加。耦合第二模态的SLP呈偶极子分布,负、正异常中心在巴伦支海和波弗特海,SIC在巴伦支海,弗拉姆海峡,格陵兰海,拉布拉多海和白令海,鄂霍次克海地区有正异常,在喀拉海、拉普捷夫海、东西伯利亚海、楚科齐海和波弗特海为负异常。耦合第三模态SLP在冰岛地区存在负异常中心,在拉普捷夫海地区有正异常中心,SIC在巴伦支海北部、弗拉姆海峡、格陵兰海为负异常,其余地区全为正异常。 对SLP和SIC分别进行EOF分解,并与耦合模态进行比较,SLP的EOF主模态的时空分布与耦合模态中SLP的时空分布十分相似,SIC的EOF模态的时空分布则与耦合模态中SIC的时空分布有较大差别,说明耦合模态对SIC的分布影响较大,即大气环流对海冰分布的影响为主要的过程,海冰对大尺度的大气环流的模态的影响不明显。     

三沙市美济礁滨珊瑚记录的近百年海面温度变化

利用南沙群岛美济礁滨珊瑚Sr/Ca建立与海面温度（SST）的关系式,后报近百年南沙群岛海区高分辨率的SST序列。结果显示：美济礁近百年SST的年平均值为28.4℃,最高值为29.2℃（1998 AD）,最低值为27.6℃（1917 AD）,相差1.6℃。近百年SST呈增暖趋势,升温速率为0.025℃/10 a,但存在年代际的温度波动,其中1906―1927 AD呈降温态势,1928―1938 AD呈增温态势,1939―1957 AD呈降温态势,1958年后SST呈波动上升趋势。近百年SST呈现3.5 a、33 a周期,显示受ENSO和太平洋年代际涛动（PDO）影响。     

1960―2013 年华南沿海海洋站SST 变化及其影响因子

根据 1960―2013 年华南沿海 7 个海洋站的实测海表温度（SST）及全球平均表面温度、太平洋年代际涛动（PDO）、ENSO、南海高压、华南沿海近海面风速等资料,采用线性回归、Yamamoto 突变检验、小波分析、相关分析等方法,研究了近 54 a 华南沿海 SST 时空变化及其影响因子,结果表明：1）近 54 a 华南沿海的年平均 SST呈准同步变化和显著增暖趋势,其气候倾向率为 0.08~0.17℃/10 a,平均为 0.12℃/10 a,以冬季增暖最为显著;2）SST 变化在 1997/1998 年出现突变现象;3）SST 变化有多时空尺度的变化特征,其中最显著的变化周期是 2~4 a的年际变化;4）SST 变化深受 ENSO 事件的影响,约滞后于 MEI 指数 2~4 个月;5）影响 SST 变化趋势的主要因子有全球气候变暖、PDO、南海高压、华南沿海近海面层风速等。     

The role of pre‐existing structures during rifting,continental breakup and transform system development,offshore West Greenland

Continental breakup between Greenland and North America produced the small oceanic basins of the Labrador Sea and Baffin Bay, which are connected via the Davis Strait, a region mostly comprised of continental crust. This study contributes to the debate regarding the role of pre‐existing structures on rift development in this region using seismic reflection data from the Davis Strait data to produce a series of seismic surfaces, isochrons and a new offshore fault map from which three normal fault sets were identified as (i) NE‐SW, (ii) NNW‐SSE and (iii) NW‐SE. These results were then integrated with plate reconstructions and onshore structural data allowing us to build a two‐stage conceptual model for the offshore fault evolution in which basin formation was primarily controlled by rejuvenation of various types of pre‐existing structures. During the first phase of rifting between at least Chron 27 (ca. 62 Ma; Palaeocene), but potentially earlier, and Chron 24 (ca. 54 Ma; Eocene) faulting was primarily controlled by pre‐existing structures with oblique normal reactivation of both the NE‐SW and NW‐SE structural sets in addition to possible normal reactivation of the NNW‐SSE structural set. In the second rifting stage between Chron 24 (ca. 54 Ma; Eocene) and Chron 13 (ca. 35 Ma; Oligocene), the sinistral Ungava transform fault system developed due to the lateral offset between the Labrador Sea and Baffin Bay. This lateral offset was established in the first rift stage possibly due to the presence of the Nagssugtoqidian and Torngat terranes being less susceptible to rift propagation. Without the influence of pre‐existing structures the manifestation of deformation cannot be easily explained during either of the rifting phases. Although basement control diminished into the post‐rift, the syn‐rift basins from both rift stages continued to influence the location of sedimentation possibly due to differential compaction effects. Variable lithospheric strength through the rifting cycle may provide an explanation for the observed diminishing role of basement structures through time.     

Numerical simulation on seasonal transport variations and mechanisms of suspended sediment discharged from the Yellow River to the Bohai Sea

Based on sediment and discharge flux data for the Yellow River, realistic forcing fields and bathymetry of the Bohai Sea, a suspended sediment transport module is driven by a wave-current coupled model to research seasonal variations and mechanisms of suspended load transport to the Bohai Sea. It could be concluded that surface sediment concentration indicates a distinct spatial distribution characteristic that varies seasonally in the Bohai Sea. Sediment concentration is rather high near the Yellow River estuary, seasonal variations of which are controlled by quantity of sediment from the Yellow River, suspended sediment concentration reaches its maximum during summer and fall. Furthermore, sediment concentration decreases rapidly in other seas far from the Yellow River estuary and maintains a very low level in the center of the Bohai Sea, and is dominated by seasonal variations of climatology wind field in the Bohai Sea. Only a small amount of sediments imported from the Yellow River are delivered northwestward to the southern coast of the Bohai Bay. Majority of sediments are transported southeastward to the Laizhou Bay, where sediments are continuously delivered into the center of the Bohai Sea in a northeastward direction, and part of them are transported eastward alongshore through the Bohai Strait. 69% of sediments from the Yellow River are deposited near the river delta, 31% conveyed seaward, within which, 4% exported to the northern Yellow Sea through the Bohai Strait. Wind wave is the most essential contributor to seasonal variations of sediment concentration in the Bohai Sea, and the contribution of tidal currents is also significant in shallow waters when wind speed is low.     

Hydrographic conditions in the Fram Strait, summer 1982

Hydrographic (CTD) observations obtained with R/V'Lance'in July-August 1982 across the Fram Strait are presented. The extent and the presence of traditional water masses such as Atlantic Water, Polar Water and Greenland Sea Deep Water are discussed. The complicated hydrographical structure in the upper water masses due to eddies and fronts near the ice edge is noted. An intermediate water mass characterized by a salinity minimum is found all across the Strait, and is suggested to originate in the Greenland Sea. The deep water in the south-west part of the Strait shows strong horizontal salinity and temperature gradients, and the structure of the corresponding station profiles indicates large hydrographical activity. This is in contrast to the east-north-east part, where the horizontal gradients are much weaker and the profiles much smoother. Thus most of the deep-and bottom-water communication between the Greenland/ Norwegian Seas and the Arctic Ocean seems to take place west of the 0° meridian.     

黄河入海悬沙季节输送变化与输送机制的数值研究(英文)

Based on sediment and discharge flux data for the Yellow River, realistic forcing fields and bathymetry of the Bohai Sea, a suspended sediment transport module is driven by a wave-current coupled model to research seasonal variations and mechanisms of suspended load transport to the Bohai Sea. It could be concluded that surface sediment concentration indicates a distinct spatial distribution characteristic that varies seasonally in the Bohai Sea. Sediment concentration is rather high near the Yellow River estuary, seasonal variations of which are controlled by quantity of sediment from the Yellow River, suspended sediment concentration reaches its maximum during summer and fall. Furthermore, sediment concentration decreases rapidly in other seas far from the Yellow River estuary and maintains a very low level in the center of the Bohai Sea, and is dominated by seasonal variations of climatology wind field in the Bohai Sea. Only a small amount of sediments imported from the Yellow River are delivered northwestward to the southern coast of the Bohai Bay. Majority of sediments are transported southeastward to the Laizhou Bay, where sediments are continuously delivered into the center of the Bohai Sea in a northeastward direction, and part of them are transported eastward alongshore through the Bohai Strait. 69% of sediments from the Yellow River are deposited near the river delta, 31% conveyed seaward, within which, 4% exported to the northern Yellow Sea through the Bohai Strait. Wind wave is the most essential contributor to seasonal variations of sediment concentration in the Bohai Sea, and the contribution of tidal currents is also significant in shallow waters when wind speed is low.     

Recent air temperature changes in the permafrost landscapes of northeastern Eurasia

In the last two decades, climatic change has resulted in increased cryogenic activity in northeastern Eurasia, with adverse consequences for landscapes and socio-economic systems in the permafrost zone.The main purpose of this study was to assess the recent phases of warming, starting with Arctic warming. We performed a spatiotemporal analysis of climatic conditions during phases of maximum warming (i.e., 1935–1945, 1988–1995, and 2005–2009) in northeastern Eurasia and compared the magnitude of warming and its effect on permafrost among these critical periods. Our observations of permafrost landscape dynamics confirmed that the last two warming phases have played major roles in changing the environment.Data analysis has revealed regional patterns in the intensity of warming. Areas south of 60–62° latitude experienced no rise in air temperature during the Arctic warming period (1935–1945), whereas during 1988–1995, the center of warming shifted to the south of northeastern Eurasia. The last phase of warming (2005–2009) was characterized by maximum values of mean annual air temperature and the thawing index, and a decrease in the freezing index throughout northeastern Eurasia.     

Contrasting climate change in the two polar regions

The two polar regions have experienced remarkably different climatic changes in recent decades. The Arctic has seen a marked reduction in sea-ice extent throughout the year, with a peak during the autumn. A new record minimum extent occurred in 2007, which was 40% below the long-term climatological mean. In contrast, the extent of Antarctic sea ice has increased, with the greatest growth being in the autumn. There has been a large-scale warming across much of the Arctic, with a resultant loss of permafrost and a reduction in snow cover. The bulk of the Antarctic has experienced little change in surface temperature over the last 50 years, although a slight cooling has been evident around the coast of East Antarctica since about 1980, and recent research has pointed to a warming across West Antarctica. The exception is the Antarctic Peninsula, where there has been a winter (summer) season warming on the western (eastern) side. Many of the different changes observed between the two polar regions can be attributed to topographic factors and land/sea distribution. The location of the Arctic Ocean at high latitude, with the consequently high level of solar radiation received in summer, allows the ice-albedo feedback mechanism to operate effectively. The Antarctic ozone hole has had a profound effect on the circulations of the high latitude ocean and atmosphere, isolating the continent and increasing the westerly winds over the Southern Ocean, especially during the summer and winter.     

A climatic variation observed in permafrost temperature at Kangiqsualujjuaq in northern Quebec

Permafrost temperatures from the surface down to about 9 m from 3 boreholes distributed around Kangiqsualujjuaq village on the coast of Hudson Strait were recorded and analyzed for the period 1989 1998. The results indicate that the permafrost is getting warm along the southern shore of Hudson Strait from 1993 to 1998 though it became cooling for the past 40 a or more. The observed trend in the order of 0.098℃/a at the 9 m depth is consistent with the long term regional warming observed in air temperatures. It also coincides with that all the global circulation models predict an enhanced warming in polar regions associated with the increase in concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.