影响广西的热带气旋年频数的BP神经网络预测模型

对影响广西的热带气旋(TC)年频数与大气环流的关系进行分析表明,TC年频数与全球范围大气环流异常有密切关系,特别是春季南半球中高纬度环流异常和低纬越赤道气流异常.利用相关分析从春季全球大气环流场中选择初选预报因子,然后对初选预报因子作EOF展开构造综合预报因子,运用BP神经网络方法建立TC年频数预报模型,并对所建立的模型进行独立样本试验.结果表明,该预报模型对历史样本拟合精度高,试报效果优于传统的逐步回归模型,可在汛期预测业务中应用.     

亚洲夏季风系统成员与西太平洋副高的相关特征分析

利用500hPa月平均高度距平场派生出涡度变化、经向风切变、纬向风切变等变量场。从1958～2001年6月500hPa月平均高度距平场及其派生变量场中选取预报因子,并将各个场中的因子分别作EOF分解,得到浓缩了初选因子变量大部分信息的综合预报因子,用以建立同月的广西月降水量的BP神经网络预报模型。进而利用2002～2005年月动力延伸集合预报产品及其派生变量,对广西6月降水量作BP神经网络降尺度释用预报。作为对比试验,以相同的预报量,从1957～2000年5～12月及1958～2001年1～4月500hPa月平均高度距平场中选取预报因子,并作相同处理,建立前期综合因子的广西6月降水量BP神经网络预报模型。独立样本试验结果表明,利用同期综合因子建立的BP神经网络降尺度预报模型的拟合精度优于利用前期综合因子建立的预报模型,但预报效果依赖于月动力延伸集合预报产品。     

云南盛夏大雨物理量因子的选取及效果检验

从物理量因子场与云南盛夏（７－８月）大雨作为预报量之间的相关系数计算入手，通过相关场分析来提取因子信息，经过不同组合试验，选出新的预报因子，检验表明，新的组合因子与预报量之间的相关性有明显提高。由此而建立的预报方程有较好的历史拟合率和较稳定的实际预报能力。     

动力延伸预报产品在广西月尺度降水滚动预测中的释用

对广西88个站全年各旬月尺度降水距平百分率作自然正交展开(EOF分解),选取累积方差贡献接近75%的前几个主成分为预报量.利用1982年至今的国家气候中心月动力延伸集合预报资料或回算实验资料,从月尺度平均500hPa位势高度、700hPaU、V向水平风速延伸预报场中选取初选预报因子,并运用EOF分解构建成综合预报因子,分别选取其中与各个预报分量相关程度高的主成分建立预报方程,滚动制作广西月尺度降水量预报.91个独立样本试验和实际应用证明,预报效果较好.     

用距离预报方法建立分县客观预报模型

根据ECMWF的变温资料建立了气温预报的拟合率较高的多元回归方程。以14时地面要素资料和高空要素场为基础，用欧氏距离选取最相似的前10个历史样本，用ECMWF数值预报产品，选取90％以上拟合率的数值预报因子建立了晴雨判别模型，试报效果较好。     

用距离预报方法建立分县客观预报模型

根据ECMWF的变温资料建立了气温预报的拟合率较高的多元回归方程.以14时地面要素资料和高空要素场为基础,用欧氏距离选取最相似的前10个历史样本,用ECM-WF数值预报产品,选取90%以上拟合率的数值预报因子建立了晴雨判别模型,试报效果较好.     

逐步引进因子场作相似预报

首先通过数学模型计算出不同样本之间的气象因子场的相似系数和表征气象因子场与天气现象之间关系的相关特征量 ,然后用相似系数和相关特征量作参数 ,以预报拟合率为判据 ,逐个引进因子场 ,组建出最优相似预报方程 ,最终作出准确率较高的客观要素预报。     

复共线性关系对逐步回归预报方程的影响研究

针对气象预报中常用的逐步回归预报建模方法,由于没有直接考虑筛选出的预报因子之间可能存在复共线性关系会影响气象预报方程的预报性能问题,提出了在初选的大量气象预报因子(自变量)中,采用条件数计算分析方法,选择复共线性关系小的预报因子组合建立预报模型的方法.以重要气象灾害的预报难点--台风预报为例,用大样本分别建立了12个台风移动经度、纬度的条件数预报方程和逐步回归预报方程.对比分析结果表明,由于条件数计算分析有效控制了预报因子间的复共线性关系,因此,在相同的预报因子(自变量)和预报对象(因变量)条件下,分月建立的条件数台风移动路径预报方程,虽然历史建模样本的拟合精度略低于逐步回归预报方程,但是对独立样本的预报精度明显提高,其中7、8和9月条件数预报方程的预报误差平均为153.9 km,而相应的逐步回归预报误差平均为229.2 km,两者相差75.3 km.进一步研究发现,在F值分别取1.0、2.0和3.0的情况下,建立的台风移动路径的逐步回归预报方程,其预报误差也明显大于条件数预报方程.另外,由于预报因子组合的复共线性的影响,逐步回归方程还出现了在个别点预报误差极大的不合理情况.     

T106产品在威海市汛期暴雨预报中的释用

以１９９５－１９９６年６－９月份０８时的实时资料为初始场,进行客观分析,计算各格点的物理量,找出显著相关区及相关因子,用最优子集回归建立ＰＰＭ方程,将国家气象中心Ｔ１０６数值预报产品代入方程,做威海市分县暴雨预报。经１９９７年汛期的试验检验表明,该方法具有一定的参考价值。     

利用非线性回归技术建立洛阳机场大风预报方法

利用2005-2008年洛阳机场200个大风天气个例,从经验和物理意义出发选取地面风速预报因子,然后对初选因子进行多种组合并同预报量作相关分析,确定了东、西风型各10个因子。根据各个因子在引入的线性和5种非线性函数形式下同预报量的相关程度,确定每个因子同预报量的最优函数关系,进而分别建立了东、西风型风速预报的多元非线性回归方程,再应用双重检验的逐步回归方案对方程进行优化,并将优化后的方程进行了检验,最后分析了影响风速主要因子的作用。结果表明:利用非线性回归方程对风速进行客观定量化预报,预报效果达到了民航气象对大风预报的质量要求,能够为实际工作提供参考;预报东、西风型风速的首要因子分别是气压梯度和变压梯度。     

CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959–2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

LOW-FREQUENCY CIRCULATION AND EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST IN CONNECTION WITH AUTUMN EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL PROCESS IN HAINAN

Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.     

AN ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE BEIJING–TIANJIN–HEBEI REGION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region.     

Revisiting the Concentration Observations and Source Apportionment of Atmospheric Ammonia

正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Retrieval of outgoing longwave radiation from COMS narrowband infrared imagery

Hourly outgoing longwave radiation(OLR) from the geostationary satellite Communication Oceanography Meteorological Satellite(COMS) has been retrieved since June 2010. The COMS OLR retrieval algorithms are based on regression analyses of radiative transfer simulations for spectral functions of COMS infrared channels. This study documents the accuracies of OLRs for future climate applications by making an intercomparison of four OLRs from one single-channel algorithm(OLR12.0using the 12.0 μm channel) and three multiple-channel algorithms(OLR10.8+12.0using the 10.8 and 12.0 μm channels; OLR6.7+10.8using the 6.7 and 10.8 μm channels; and OLR All using the 6.7, 10.8, and 12.0 μm channels). The COMS OLRs from these algorithms were validated with direct measurements of OLR from a broadband radiometer of the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System(CERES) over the full COMS field of view [roughly(50°S–50°N, 70°–170°E)] during April 2011.Validation results show that the root-mean-square errors of COMS OLRs are 5–7 W m-2, which indicates good agreement with CERES OLR over the vast domain. OLR6.7+10.8and OLR All have much smaller errors(～ 6 W m-2) than OLR12.0and OLR10.8+12.0(～ 8 W m-2). Moreover, the small errors of OLR6.7+10.8and OLR All are systematic and can be readily reduced through additional mean bias correction and/or radiance calibration. These results indicate a noteworthy role of the6.7 μm water vapor absorption channel in improving the accuracy of the OLRs. The dependence of the accuracy of COMS OLRs on various surface, atmospheric, and observational conditions is also discussed.