利用GNSS历元间差分测速方法反演地震三要素

利用高频全球卫星导航系统（global navigation satellite system, GNSS）记录监测地震可有效弥补传统地震仪近场观测量程饱和、基线偏移等问题。相比于GNSS精密单点定位（precise point positioning, PPP）,历元间差分测速方法可避免PPP收敛时间较长、需要外部改正数的问题,且测速方法获取的地震波形具有更高的信噪比。以2021年5月21日青海玛多MS 7.4地震为研究对象,提出利用载波相位历元间差分方法对该地区1 Hz高频GNSS数据进行处理,得到测站速度波形,并确定出玛多地震的震中位置、震级和发震时刻等参数。与中国地震局公布的结果比较,震中位置平均值相差约2.07 km;震级平均值相差约0.06个震级单位;发震时刻平均值相差4 s。结果表明,高频GNSS历元间差分测速方法反演地震三要素具有非常好的准确性与实用性。     

云南地区形变观测资料短临异常指标提取

提出了面应变综合预测指标法,目的是将全球卫星定位系统（global position system,GPS）观测结果应用于地震短临预测。基于云南省GPS连续观测资料,利用GPS高精度数据处理软件（GAMIT/GLOBK）处理后获得位移场。对位移场进行网格化插值获得均匀分布于56个网格的位移场,基于每个网格位移场时间序列求取其面应变时间序列,并对每个网格面应变时间序列的映震能力进行评价、综合,提取出适合于云南地区的地震短临异常识别指标。实践表明,综合预测指标对云南地区2011年以来发生的20次5级以上地震进行3个月短临预测,其中准确预测次数为19次,漏报数为1次,虚报5次,认为该指标对地震发震时间、震中均具有较好的指示意义,可用于云南地区未来的地震短临预测实践。     

东日本Mw9.0大地震前、同震及震后地壳水平运动

利用“中国地壳运动观测网络(二期)”245个GPS连续观测站及其他站的大量观测结果,采用离震中很远的7个GPS站作为位错参考框架,得到2011年3月11日东日本Mw9.0大地震的同震水平位移和应变。此种参考框架的位移场解,符合弹性位错模型离震中很远且水平位移接近于0的要求,不仅有利于位错模型反演,也有利于合理分析此次大地震同震水平位移的影响范围。地震前后区域参考框架下远场GPS连续观测位移时间序列和同震位移弹性位错模型反演结果表明,东日本大地震同震水平位移既是地震断层破裂的结果,也是远场震前数月或数年水平位移的弹性回跳,据此可以进一步确认这些站震前水平位移前兆异常。由于这些震前异常位移中亦包含了同震位移量(方向相反),因此,弹性位错模型为定量研究大地震前远场地壳运动异常提供了一种理论模型。位错参考框架中的同震位移及其位错模型和区域参考框架的位移时间系列的综合研究有助于对此次大地震地壳运动异常的认识。这种持续时间为数月至数年的弹性形变异常,可以为大地震的中短期预测提供依据。     

GNSS观测的2021年青海玛多地震（Mw 7.4）同震形变及其滑动分布

北京时间2020年5月22日2时,中国青海省果洛州玛多县发生Mw 7.4地震。收集震中附近9个连续运行卫星定位基准站(continuously operating reference stations,CORS)观测数据,基于模糊度解算的精密单点定位(precise point positioning with ambiguity resolution,PPP-AR)技术处理了2 h时段的高频(1 Hz采样)全球导航卫星系统(global navigation satellite system,GNSS)数据,快速确定本次地震的近场同震位移,其中水平方向最大约为0.6 m。结合远场12个CORS震前、震后各3 d低频(30 s采样)数据的非差PPP解算同震形变场,基于弹性位错模型反演了玛多地震断层几何参数和滑动分布。结果显示:玛多地震属于典型走滑事件,发震断层走向278.49°,倾角为64.38°,滑动角为-10.90°,破裂长度约为138.72 km,宽度为4.82 km;滑动量超过3 m的滑移主要集中在东部小于18 km深度的区域,最大破裂可达4.2 m。反演的地震矩为1.85×1020Nm,相当于矩震级7.45,比美国地质调查局利用地震波的反演结果略大。     

利用平滑先验信息方法分离高频GPS数据静态永久变形与地震波

震后高频GPS观测资料详细记录了地震引起的静态永久变形和地震波信息,如何实现二者的有效分离是准确反演地震参数的关键因素。本文引入平滑先验信息方法（SPM）对近几年3次地震的高频GPS数据进行处理和分析,尝试实现二者的有效分离。结果表明,SPM方法可以简单、快速、有效地分离高频GPS动态位移中的静态永久变形和地震波信息,数据处理结果完整、清晰地记录了由主震引起的静态永久变形、余震引起的静态永久变形和震后余滑位移以及地震波信息,可为准确反演震源参数、断层破裂过程提供重要的约束条件。     

基于多台站高频GPS的地震预警优化算法研究CSCD

随着精密定位技术的发展,高频GPS已能够精确记录地表位移数据,研究高频GPS能为地震预警工作做出一定补充.针对目前地震预警中单站预警误报率高的问题引入深度学习技术,利用长短期记忆网络(LSTM)联合周边区域台站对单台站进行预警以达到减少误报的目的.首先通过对新西兰南部地区1 Hz高频GPS数据进行解算得到多个台站无震时间序列,再利用该数据训练网络得到融合区域特征的高精度模型.该模型可以对无震时间序列进行预测并动态制定阈值区间,当实际观测值超出置信区间则判定异常.通过与传统短时窗平均/长时窗平均算法(STA/LTA)及未融合区域特征的单站模型进行对比,结果表明:融合区域特征的单站模型可有效减少误报,在多个台站的无震长序列上较传统方法表现优异,具有一定的应用价值.     

基于地壳分层的地震断层同震变形反演分析

顾及地球结构的非均匀性、分层和球体特性,发展了顾及地壳分层结构的地震断层同震位错模型的反演模式,建立了非线性反演方程,对主要的两类地震断层分别进行了模拟反演分析.反演结果显示,该反演模式可很好地将断层位错参数反演出来,利用该模式可较好地解决实际地震断层同震变形的反演问题.     

汶川地震震后形变的GPS反演

通过对汶川地震后震区附近的GPS连续站资料的高精度数据处理,获得各测站的时间序列.利用时间序列分析,求得震后松弛时间约为38 d,并获得各测站的震后位移.基于粘弹性松弛模型,对震后位移进行了模拟,反演出龙门山地区地壳的弹性层厚度的最佳估值为45 km,粘弹性层的粘滞系数的最佳估值为1.8×1019 Pa·s,该结果与地震学以及地球物理学等给出的结果基本一致.     

运用GPS高频时间序列对地震前兆的探索研究

通过对在日本福岛地震发生前后短时间内的两个GPS测站的时间序列进行拟合以获取在短时间内的地震同震位移数据,通过动态时间序列图的形式对地震同震位移数据进行研究,结果发现,在地震发生时很短的时间内地震同震位移数据会发生大幅度的变化,在地震结束后又恢复正常。这种变化规律可以为地震前兆预测做参考。     

东日本大地震前后陆态网络基准站形变研究

计算了东日本大地震前后各1a的"陆态网络"基准站GPS观测数据,得到了基准站的时间序列及其运动速度,讨论了较长时间尺度上东日本地震对"陆态网络"基准站造成的影响。结果表明,与震前相比,我国东北地区距震中较近的基准站的运动速度有加速倾向,运动方向偏向震中位置,华东地区、华南地区基准站的运动速度和方向在震前震后基本一致。     

基于GPS观测的Baja California地震地壳变形分析

2010-04-04墨西哥Baja California(32.259°N,115.287°W)Ms 7.2级地震发生在GPS连续观测站及钻孔应变仪相当密集的区域,利用GPS监测数据计算出了若干站点地震前后的位移量。地壳变形分析结果表明,离震中近的观测站变形量普遍较大,最大可达0.2m,大部分观测站明显向东南方向运动。通过选择较稳定的观测站作为参考站,计算了4观测站的动态变形序列,同时得到地震波的传播速度为3.2km/s,与应变观测计算结果比较吻合。     

Improved detection of earthquake-induced ground motion with spatial filter: case study of the 2012 M = 7.6 Costa Rica earthquake

High-rate GPS measurements of earthquake-induced strong crustal movements reveal important information on large amplitude displacements, which cannot be obtained by other seismic monitoring equipment. However, obtaining accurate measurements of these strong movements can be challenging, because large magnitude earthquakes (M > 7) affect a wide area surrounding the epicenter. As a result, the GPS recorded movements are calculated with respect to distant sites (relative positioning), or with satellite parameters estimated from distant sites (precise point positioning). In order to improve the accuracy of the strong motion GPS measurements, we developed a new method, based on a spatial filtering technique. The method calculates the displacement of a high-rate monitoring network with respect to a moving near field site and uses a stacking technique to remove the movements of the reference site from all the time series. We applied the new method to the analysis of 5 Hz data acquired by the Nicoya Peninsula network, which recorded strong crustal movements induced by the 2012, M = 7.6 Costa Rica earthquake. The results were successfully tested with respect to 1 Hz time series calculated with a far field reference site. The spatial filtering method also removes other systematic common noise from the time series, possibly due to atmospheric delay or orbital errors and, hence, produces more accurate solutions that those based on far fields sites, or on near field site experiencing earthquake-induced action.     

High-rate precise point positioning (PPP) to measure seismic wave motions: an experimental comparison of GPS PPP with inertial measurement units

High-rate GPS has been widely used to construct displacement waveforms and to invert for source parameters of earthquakes. Almost all works on internal and external evaluation of high-rate GPS accuracy are based on GPS relative positioning. We build an experimental platform to externally evaluate the accuracy of 50-Hz PPP displacement waveforms. Since the shake table allows motion in any of six degrees of freedom, we install an inertial measurement unit (IMU) to measure the attitude of the platform and transform the IMU displacements into the GPS coordinate system. The experimental results have shown that high-rate PPP can produce absolute horizontal displacement waveforms at the accuracy of 2–4 mm and absolute vertical displacement waveforms at the sub-centimeter level of accuracy within a short period of time. The significance of the experiments indicates that high-rate PPP is capable of detecting absolute seismic displacement waveforms at the same high accuracy as GPS relative positioning techniques, but requires no fixed datum station. We have also found a small scaling error of IMU and a small time offset of misalignment between high-rate PPP and IMU displacement waveforms by comparing the amplitudes of and cross-correlating both the displacement waveforms.     

Very high-rate GPS for measuring dynamic seismic displacements without aliasing: performance evaluation of the variometric approach

Very high-rate global positioning system (GPS) data has the capacity to quickly resolve seismically related ground displacements, thereby providing great potential for rapidly determining the magnitude and the nature of an earthquake’s rupture process and for providing timely warnings for earthquakes and tsunamis. The GPS variometric approach can measure ground displacements with comparable precision to relative positioning and precise point positioning (PPP) within a short period of time. The variometric approach is based on single-differencing over time of carrier phase observations using only the broadcast ephemeris and a single receiver to estimate velocities, which are then integrated to derive displacements. We evaluate the performance of the variometric approach to measure displacements using 50 Hz GPS data, which were recorded during the 2013 M_W 6.6 Lushan earthquake and the 2011 M_W 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The comparison between 50 and 1 Hz seismic displacements demonstrates that 1 Hz solutions often fail to faithfully manifest the seismic waves containing high-frequency seismic signals due to aliasing, which is common for near-field stations of a moderate-magnitude earthquake. Results indicate that 10–50 Hz sampling GPS sites deployed close to the source or the ruptured fault are needed for measuring dynamic seismic displacements of moderate-magnitude events. Comparisons with post-processed PPP results reveal that the variometric approach can determine seismic displacements with accuracies of 0.3–4.1, 0.5–2.3 and 0.8–6.8 cm in the east, north and up components, respectively. Moreover, the power spectral density analysis demonstrates that high-frequency noises of seismic displacements, derived using the variometric approach, are smaller than those of PPP-derived displacements in these three components.     

GPS地震仪:PANDA软件测试结果与验证

介绍了基于PANDA软件的高采样率GPS数据非差精密定位方法,为了验证高采样GPS技术与地震仪观测结果的一致性,进行了震动平台模拟数据试验。试验结果表明,高采样GPS和地震仪均能有效地恢复平台震动位移和震动主频率。对2010年Baja地震实际观测的GPS和强震仪进行分析,结果表明,利用高采样GPS技术不仅能成功获取地震波信号;而且能同时获得地表永久形变信息;而地震仪只能获取地震波信息,而不能直接获得地表永久形变信息。     

汶川地震后龙门山断层中段愈合过程的GPS时间序列反演

利用汶川地震后、芦山地震前3年时间(2010.30—2013.30)的GPS连续站时间序列结果,采用TDEFNODE负位错反演程序,对龙门山断层中南段闭锁程度和滑动亏损速率动态演化进行了反演计算与分析,并讨论了汶川地震后断层中段的愈合过程和西南段的大震背景。结果表明:①汶川地震震中周边破裂区域的闭锁程度逐渐增强,由2010年基本处于蠕滑状态,至2013年处于较强闭锁状态;闭锁范围也逐渐增大,由汶川震中西南方向逐渐趋近震中位置,表明该部分断层正在快速愈合。汶川震中北东方向的大部分破裂区域依然处于蠕滑状态,表明该部分断层还未开始愈合。②芦山地震震中附近及其西南方向断层一直处于强闭锁状态,且完全闭锁区域的滑动亏损速率逐年减小,可能表明愈合区域分担了部分巴颜喀拉块体对四川盆地的挤压作用。以上结果表明,龙门山破裂断层不同段震后愈合过程和活动特征都有显著差异;处于强闭锁状态的龙门山断层西南段,在挤压弹性应变快速积累的情况下,发生大震的背景有所增强。     

融合GPS与强震仪数据实时监测瞬时地壳形变

针对强震仪与GPS各自的优点与缺陷，以2016年意大利Mw 6.0级地震为例，探讨了利用Kalman滤波融合GPS与强震仪数据实时监测中等强度地震引起的瞬时地壳形变的可行性与优势。Kalman滤波获取的位移波形以GPS数据作为整体趋势，细节部分用强震仪数据进行描述，融合后的位移波形精度较高，能够准确和细致地描述地震引起的地表动态形变；与此同时，Kalman滤波位移波形也能够准确地探测中等强度地震引起的同震永久阶跃；Kalman滤波位移波形的功率谱在低频部分与GPS位移波形的功率谱密度相似，在高频部分与强震仪位移波形的功率谱密度相似，表明Kalman滤波结合了GPS与强震仪各自的优点；交叉小波分析表明，Kalman滤波获取的位移波形与GPS、强震仪数据呈现较强的正相关性，小波相似值均在0.8以上。以上结果表明，融合GPS与强震仪数据可以结合二者各自的优点，弥补各自的缺陷；融合GPS与强震仪数据可以有效探测中等强度地震引起的瞬时地壳形变。     

A method developed for predicting potential precursors of earthquakes

This paper describes the methodology used to eliminate environmental effects to a time series of short distance (24m) leveling across a geological fault in order to detect potential precursors of earthquakes from the residual time series. First, linear trends and periodic signals are removed from the observations with the help of a recursive least squares method. Then, a controlled autoregression model is used to predict the environmental contribution due to precipitation and evaporation. The difference between the leveling data and these predictions are considered to be due to endogenic crustal processes. Applying this methodology to leveling data of approximately 13 years at Niukouyu crustal deformation station near Beijing reveals an anomalous deformation before the Tangshan earthquake (M7.8), which has its epicenter about 180 km from the survey site. However, in the time period considered, another anomaly occurred which cannot be related directly to a seismic event.