北极放大的时空变化特征及其与北极涛动的联系

The Arctic near-surface air temperatures are increasing more than twice as fast as the global average–a feature known as Arctic amplification(AA).A modified AA index is constructed in this paper to emphasize the contrast of warming rate between polar and mid-latitude regions,as well as the spatial and temporal characteristics of AA and their influence on atmospheric circulation over the Northern Hemisphere.Results show that AA has a pronounced annual cycle.The positive or negative phase activities are the strongest in autumn and winter,the weakest in summer.After experiencing a remarkable decadal shift from negative to positive phase in the early global warming hiatus period,the AA has entered into a state of being enlarged continuously,and the decadal regime shift of AA in about 2002 is affected mainly by decadal shift in autumn.In terms of spatial distribution,AA has maximum warming near the surface in almost all seasons except in summer.Poleward of 20°N,AA in autumn has a significant influence on the atmospheric circulation in the following winter.The reason may be that the autumn AA increases the amplitude of planetary waves,slows the wave speeds and weakens upper-level zonal winds through the thermal wind relation,thus influencing surface air temperature in the following winter.The AA correlates to negative phase of the Arctic oscillation(AO) and leads AO by 0–3 months within the period 1979–2002.However,weaker relationship between them is indistinctive after the decadal shift of AA.     

北欧海大气低空辐合辐散的东西振荡模态及其相应的大气遥相关异常环流

北欧海作为连接北冰洋和北大西洋的重要海域,其由热效应产生的辐合场值得关注。本文利用NECP/NCAR的速度势函数(Velocity Potential,VP)数据表征北欧海辐合辐散场,发现在秋冬季北欧海上空大气低层存在一个独立的辐合区域。经验正交函数分解结果表明,北欧海上空的VP显示出除了表征北极涛动的全区一致型模态外,还表现出一个东西向辐合辐散反位相的东西振荡型模态。该模态与一支连接北大西洋涛动(NAO)和欧亚遥相关(EU)的复合型大气遥相关波列有关,北欧海表层潜热和感热异常加热通过影响低空大气的异常辐合辐散,与北大西洋偶极子型海温异常加热共同作用,加强了NAO异常环流;同时高空急流波导作用加强了从北欧海到东亚的EU波列,使得位于NAO和EU之间的北欧海成为连接NAO和EU大气遥相关波列的“中继站”,进而通过这种复合型大气遥相关波列将北大西洋与东亚大气环流联系起来,形成对东亚地区天气气候的远程影响。     

Interdecadal oscillations in the Japan Sea proper water related to the arctic oscillation

The time series of dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration in the Japan Sea Proper Water (JSPW) shows clear interdecadal oscillation with about 20-year periodicity since the 1970s. This interdecadal variation in the DO concentration is positively correlated with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index; the DO concentration tends to be high during a positive AO phase when the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is relatively weak, which is considered to be an unfavorable condition for the JSPW formation. To clarify the discrepancy, the cause of the interdecadal oscillation was investigated using the wind at Wajima and sea surface temperature (SST) in the JSPW formation area. The cold-air outbreaks determined from the wind at Wajima are synchronized with the interdecadal oscillation of the AO; during a positive AO phase the cold-air outbreaks over the Japan Sea are more active, as reported by Isobe and Beardsley (2007). Since the SST in the JSPW formation area is negatively correlated with cold-air outbreaks, the activity of cold-air outbreaks is more important to the JSPW formation than the EAWM, at least on an interdecadal timescale. Significant correlations of the indicator of low pressure migration with the AO and cold-air outbreaks confirm that atmospheric disturbances move frequently into the Japan Sea from the East China Sea in a positive AO phase. A detailed examination of cold-air outbreaks revealed that the passing of atmospheric low pressures temporarily enhances the east-west pressure gradient over the Japan Sea and effectively brings cold air into the JSPW formation area.     

大气环流优势模态对北极海冰变化的响应Ⅰ.北极涛动

利用美国冰雪中心海冰密集度数据,分析了1979-2012年北极海冰面积的时间变化特征,发现北极海冰具有显著的年代际变化特征,分别在1997和2007年前后存在两次年代际转型突变点,相应的大气环流优势模态——北极涛动(AO)也存在显著的时空变化。1979-1996年阶段海冰下降趋势较弱并以较强的年际振荡为主,AO模态较强且显示出低频振荡特征;1997-2006年阶段北极海冰快速减退趋势占优,同时伴随着较弱的年际振荡,AO模态减弱且振荡周期缩短;2007-2012年阶段海冰范围较快下降同时具有极强的年际振荡,方差变化是前两个阶段的2~3倍,AO不仅强度加强,空间结构也发生了变化,极涡中心分别向格陵兰岛和白令海峡一侧延伸,这种结构有利于极地冷空气入侵欧洲和北美。利用ECHAM5大气模式进行的数值试验结果也证实了较强振荡的海冰强迫对AO模态的改变具有决定作用。     

The relationship between the canonical ENSO and the phase transition of the Antarctic oscillation at the quasi-quadrennial timescale

A correlation analysis is performed to investigate the relationship between El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Antarctic oscillation (AAO) at the quasi-quadrennial (QQ) timescale.It is found that the cold tongue index (CTI) and the AAO index (AAOI) are negatively correlated with about a 7-month lead-time,while they are positively correlated with about a 15-month lag-time.To further explore this relationship,complex empirical orthogonal function analysis is employed in the QQ sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies from 1951 to 2002.The results indicate that,during the ENSO cycle,there exists one kind of global tropical wave of wavenumber 1 (GTW1) propagating eastward.With the traveling of GTW1,the tropical SLP anomaly tends to intrude into the southern mid-latitudes.Accordingly,three strong signals travel synchronously along the circumSouth-Pacific path,and a relatively weak signal extends eastward and poleward over the South Ocean in the Atlantic-Indian Ocean sector.Following the propagation of these signals,the AAO phase tends to be reversed progressively.As a result,there exists an evident lead-lag correlation between CTI and AAOI.It can be concluded that ENSO plays a key role in the phase transition of AAO at the QQ timescale.It is also noticed that this regular relationship is only evident in the canonical ENSO events,for which sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies extend westward from the tropical eastern Pacific.On the other hand,the similar relationships are not found among those atypical ENSO events for which SST anomalies spread eastward from the central Pacific,such as the 1982-1983 ENSO event.     

热带海气相互作用对大气BSISO年际振荡的影响

利用卫星观测OLR资料以及海气耦合数值模拟试验结果,从每年波-频分析结果提取了各种传播模态的强度指数序列,分析了热带北半球夏季季节内振荡(BSISO)各种传播模态的年际变化谱特征,探讨了热带各海区海气相互作用对其影响。主要结果如下:赤道外西传波和印度洋北传波以准2 a为显著振荡周期,赤道东传波、南海北传波和西太平洋北传波则都包含准2 a和准5 a两种周期,南海北传波是5种指数中惟一以准5 a为最主要周期振荡的模态。热带印度洋、西太平洋、东太平洋各海区海气相互作用对各指数准2 a振荡、准5 a振荡既有加强作用,也有削弱作用。各海区比较而言,对赤道东传波准2 a和准5 a振荡、南海北传波准2 a和准5 a振荡起最大加强作用的是西太平洋海区海气相互作用;对赤道外西传波准2 a振荡、西太平洋北传波准2 a和准5 a振荡起最大加强作用的是印度洋海区海气相互作用。     

Variations in the temperature and circulation of the atmosphere during the 11-year cycle of solar activity derived from the ERA-Interim reanalysis data

Using the data of the ERA-Interim reanalysis, we have obtained estimates of changes in temperature, the geopotential and its large-scale zonal harmonics, wind velocity, and potential vorticity in the troposphere and stratosphere of the Northern and Southern hemispheres during the 11-year solar cycle. The estimates have been obtained using the method of multiple linear regression. Specific features of response of the indicated atmospheric parameters to the solar cycle have been revealed in particular regions of the atmosphere for a whole year and depending on the season. The results of the analysis indicate the existence of a reliable statistical relationship of large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic processes in the troposphere and stratosphere with the 11-year solar cycle.     

热带海气相互作用对大气BSISO年际振荡的影响

利用卫星观测OLR资料以及海气耦合数值模拟试验结果,从每年波-频分析结果提取了各种传播模态的强度指数序列,分析了热带北半球夏季季节内振荡(BSISO)各种传播模态的年际变化谱特征,探讨了热带各海区海气相互作用对其影响。主要结果如下:赤道外西传波和印度洋北传波以准2 a为显著振荡周期,赤道东传波、南海北传波和西太平洋北传波则都包含准2 a和准5 a两种周期,南海北传波是5种指数中惟一以准5 a为最主要周期振荡的模态。热带印度洋、西太平洋、东太平洋各海区海气相互作用对各指数准2 a振荡、准5 a振荡既有加强作用,也有削弱作用。各海区比较而言,对赤道东传波准2 a和准5 a振荡、南海北传波准2 a和准5 a振荡起最大加强作用的是西太平洋海区海气相互作用;对赤道外西传波准2 a振荡、西太平洋北传波准2 a和准5 a振荡起最大加强作用的是印度洋海区海气相互作用。     

The Southern Annular Mode and opposite-phased Basin Mode of the Southern Ocean circulation

Over the Southern Ocean the dominant modes of the atmospheric field are known as the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) or Antarctic Oscillation, and the Pacific South American (PSA) pattern. Statistical analysis of sea surface wind (SSW) from satellite observation revealed two leading modes of SAM-like and PSA patterns. In the high latitudes, the SAM-like pattern of the SSW had a large amplitude over the Bellingshausen Basin and Australian-Antarctic Basin, with opposite phase between the two basins. On the intraseasonal time scale, large-scale sea surface height (SSH) also had notable variability, showing a basin-scale anti-phase mode over the two basins. To explain the response of oceanic variations to these atmospheric modes, we analyzed the relationship between the dominant modes of wind stress and large-scale SSH on the intraseasonal time scale. The SAM-like pattern of wind stress was correlated with the SSH variation over the two basins. The SSH basin mode was most simply explained by a simple barotropic response to the SAM-like mode of wind stress, with the curl of opposite phase between the two basins. We conclude that the zonal asymmetry of the wind field of the SAM plays an important role in driving the antiphase SSH basin modes.     

中国近海海温年际年代际振荡关键海区分析研究

用HADLEY中心的HadISST的海温资料、NCEP的大气资料、国家气象局发布的74个月平均环流指数和美国华盛顿大学的PDO指数,讨论研究了中国近海海温的年际年代际振荡。通过对我国近海海温的EOF分析,可以发现我国近海30 N附近是海温年际年代际振荡信号最强的关键区,它占了总量的58.2%,与澳大利亚东北沿海海温年代际振荡有相同的周期,最明显周期是44—45年,滞后PDO信号近15年左右。该关键区海温与澳大利亚东北沿海海温都还存在1年、5年和15年的振荡,它们的相关系数达到0.604,属于同一个模态。另外,1年的海温振荡信号除了澳大利亚东北沿岸以外,还沿着西太平洋海岸线分布,因此中国近海海温年际年代际振荡不是一种局地现象,而与太平洋海温变化有关。另外,它是海气相互作用的结果,与中高纬度的东亚大槽和低纬度太平洋印度洋的风场、西太平洋副高和南海副高、大气温度场甚至南半球环流有明显的关系。     

影响东海气候的太阳活动信息分析

采用逐次滤波法逐次提取东海气温资料序列中蕴涵的太阳活动影响信息并加以分析,发现东海气候年代际变化特征十分清楚,主要表现为:(1)突变性,东海夏季7月海平面层及对流层大气温度场在过去半个多世纪中发生过一次急剧变化,突变点是1978年7月.从1978年7月由历时30多年的温度偏低时期跃变为持续高温时期,高温期持续至20世纪末,升温幅度超过0.4℃.资料分析表明,整个对流层东海夏季大气温度都具有这种年代际变化特征;(2)高空气候持续增温型,东海夏季7月平流层中部10 hPa大气温度表现为一种波动式的持续升温过程,50多年来温度升高4℃,年升温率超过0.075℃/a.东海平流层底部100 hPa温度也具有持续升温的特点,从1948年至今呈缓慢升高的趋势,53 a升高了1.9℃,升温率为0.036℃/a;(3)周期性,东海不同高度大气温度都具有显著程度不同的22 a周期性年代际变化特征,22 a周期分量的振幅由高空到低空迅速减小,表明22 a周期高空清楚,低空不太明显.东海对流层中部和平流层底部还具有显著的11 a周期性年代际变化.据分析认为22 a周期是太阳黑子磁场磁性变化周期所激发,11 a周期与太阳黑子相对数11 a周期相吻合,二者均为太阳活动在大气气候中的反映.     

Seasonal variations of wind and waves over Taiwan waters

We here investigate the frequency and intensity of oscillations in oceanographic data within intraseasonal time scales using spectral analysis of surface wind and wave time-series data collected at off-island weather stations or moored buoys around Taiwan. Data from marine weather stations were used to trace atmospheric conditions, while we used buoy data to examine sea states. The spectra and wavelet scalogram of the wind fields revealed oscillations with a period of around 20–33 days, and the energy density of the wind field at the off-island stations was stronger than that at the data buoy stations. However, the wavelet scalogram of the wave height measured at the buoy stations was stronger than its associated wind field. This long-period oscillation is consistent with the wavelet scalogram of the wind field calculated from the off-island weather stations. About 20–33 day oscillations exist within intraseasonal variations, which are closely linked to the atmospheric environment and to wind and ocean wave fields. Oscillations with a period of 5–10 days are a pronounced feature over northeastern Taiwan waters during the winter season and can be interpreted as the wave pattern following synoptic weather systems.     

北太平洋年代际涛动与太阳活动的联系

采用逐次滤波法分析了北太平洋海洋大气系统年代际振荡特征及其主要影响因子，探索太阳活动对于北太平洋海洋大气系统年代际变化的影响。结果表明，太阳活动是北太平洋海洋大气系统周期性年代际振荡的重要影响因子，具体反映在：1）北太平洋年代际涛动（PDO，Pacific Decadal Oscillation）存在与太阳活动密切相关的22年周期和11年周期，是PDO仅次于趋势项最重要的周期成分，其方差贡献率分别为20．9％和6．7％。研究发现北太平洋年代际涛动变化对于太阳活动的响应方式与太阳活动强弱程度有联系，太阳活动水平强时PDO与太阳磁场变化符号相同并且振荡幅度大；太阳活动水平弱时PDO与太阳磁场变化符号相反并且振荡幅度小。2）滤除持续下降趋势之后，北太平洋冬季阿留申低压活动区海平面气压（SLP，Sea Level Pressure）表现出与太阳磁场磁性指数（MI，Magnetic index）基本反相的周期性振荡，滤除22年周期之后11年周期也比较清楚，其方差贡献率分别为13．4％和1．1％。3）滤除持续升温趋势以后北太平洋100hPa冬季大气温度距平场表现出与太阳磁场磁性指数基本一致的周期性振荡，滤除22年周期之后11年周期也比较清楚，其方差贡献率分别为15．1％和1．1％。研究结果说明，在太阳活动对于大气温度场的影响过程中，黑子磁场磁性变化是决定性的，即决定了温度变化符号，MI绝对值的变化即太阳磁场强度变化影响其量变。     

Four Decadal Ocean-Atmosphere Modes in the North Pacific Revealed by Various Analysis Methods

Various statistical methods (empirical orthogonal function (EOF), rotated EOF, singular value decomposition (SVD), principal oscillation pattern (POP), complex EOF (CEOF) and joint CEOF) were applied to low-pass filtered (>7 years) sea surface temperature (SST), subsurface temperature and 500 hPa geopotential height in order to reveal standing and propagating features of decadal variations in the North Pacific. Four decadal ocean-atmosphere covariant modes were found in this study. The first mode is the well-known ENSO-like mode associated with the “Pacific-North American” atmospheric pattern, showing SST variations reversed between the tropics and the extratropics. In the western tropical Pacific, subsurface temperature variations were found to be out of phase with the SST variations. The other three modes are related to the oceanic general circulation composed of the subtropical gyre, the Alaskan gyre and the subpolar gyre, respectively. The 1988/89 event in the northern North Pacific was found to be closely associated with the subtropical gyre mode, and the atmospheric pattern associated with this mode is the Arctic Oscillation. An upper ocean heat budget analysis suggests that the surface net heat flux and mean gyre advection are important to the Alaskan gyre mode. For the subpolar gyre mode, the mean gyre advection, local Ekman pumping and surface net heat flux play important roles. Possible air-sea interactions in the North Pacific are also discussed. The oceanic signals for these decadal modes occupy a thick layer in the North Pacific, so that accumulated heat content may in turn support long-term climate variations. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

苏北浅滩及长江口海域春季海表面温度长期升温机制分析

在1982—2016年,苏北浅滩及长江口海域春季海表面温度主要呈现出从南至北、从近岸至离岸升温趋势逐渐减小的特征,其中长江口附近海域升温速率最大。研究显示,苏北浅滩及长江口附近海域春季海表面温度的长期升温趋势主要与该海域经向热输送及长江平流热输送的增强有关。进一步的研究发现,春季经向风速的增强导致该海域经向热输送的增加,而春季经向风速的年际及年代际变率又受到太平洋年代际振荡、北极涛动的调控,其中,太平洋年代际振荡指数与经向风速呈负相关,北极涛动指数与经向风速呈正相关,北极涛动指数的年际增加以及太平洋年代际振荡指数的年际降低使得春季南风增强,进而南向的冷平流减弱,北向的热平流增强,使该海域春季海表面温度长期升温。在此过程中,净热通量对其升温过程起到抑制作用,而前冬海温主要是对春季海表面温度的年代际振荡产生重要影响,其主要体现为1982—1999年的升温及2000—2016年的降温过程。     

中国近海海面风场的时空特征分析

本文利用1987年9月—2013年9月连续26 a的多源卫星融合数据,用经验正交函数方法(EOF)分析中国近海海面风场变化特征。分析结果指出中国近海海面风场的第一模态占总方差贡献的63.94%,呈现为冬-夏季风振荡类型,揭示了中国近海风场的季节变化特征;第二模态占总方差贡献的12.35%,呈现为春-秋振荡类型,反映了冬季风和夏季风过渡时期的变化特征;第三模态占总方差贡献的3.49%,呈现出近似半年周期的波动,体现了中国近海风场季节内变化的特征。     

Heat oscillation in the upper ocean of the southern South China Sea

Data used in this study are temperature/depth profiles taken over the upper 400 m of the ocean in the southern South China Sea (4°-14° N, 106°-120° E) for the period 1961-1973. The data are analyzed on the grid 2 (latitude) by 2 (longitude) in space and bimonthly in time. The vertically averaged temperature (TAV) over the upper 100 m of the ocean is calculated as the estimate of the heat content in the upper ocean.The TAV is cooler in the northwest region of the study area and warmer in the southeast in the annual and seasonal mean figures. The first EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function) of anomalous TAV accounts for 41 % of the total variance for the period 1961-1973. The time function associated with it displays a significant interannual changes in the heat content, with 2-4 a oscillation period and associated with the ENSO events. During ENSO event TAV increases with the tendency of increasing towards equator along the basin. This anomalous states also exist in the water layers below 100 m depth. T     

Analysis of the influence that climatic variability has on the formation of the total-ozone-content field at extratropical latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere

Having applied the method of discriminant analysis to the TOMS data of satellite sounding of the total ozone content (TOC) in the March months of 1979–2008, the authors could make a new estimate of the TOC field variability in the Northern Hemisphere and interlongitudinal regularities of its changes under the action of climatic variability. The effects of temperature variations in the polar stratosphere, El Niño, and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) have proven comparable and reach 80 DU in some regions. The influence of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) reaches 40 DU. The regions of TOC variations and their location and dimensions change depending on the phases of QBO, AO, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Three regions of increased TOC—over Europe, Eastern Siberia, and the Pacific Ocean—are formed in years with a warm stratosphere. A compensating TOC decrease takes place in the tropics and over Greenland. In the years of El Niño and the easterly QBO phase, the TOC increases over Europe and drops over the central Pacific, as well as to the south from 45° N. The AO controls the ozone growth over most of Eurasia at temperate latitudes and its weak drop over the Atlantic. It was impossible to obtain such quantitative estimates with the use of methods based on an independent analysis of the TOC series at individual points of the coordinate grid. Testing with the Monte Carlo method confirmed that the results obtained are significant with a probability of 95–99.9%.     

Teleconnection of IOD signal in the upper troposphere over southern high latitudes

Evidence has been found for the teleconnection of Indian Ocean Dipole mode (IOD) events in the southern high latitude sea surface pressure field, although the mechanisms that might lead to such far-reaching links remain unresolved. Based on the teleconnection pattern between IOD and the climate anomaly in the upper troposphere, we propose one such mechanism here: the energy propagation theory of the atmospheric planetary wave. Ray traces of the atmospheric planetary waves suggest that the energy propagation of the waves could be responsible for the teleconnection between IOD and tropospheric climate anomalies in southern high latitudes.     

Pacific decadal oscillation and European climatic anomalies

By using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets for 1951–2001, we study the characteristics of Pacific cyclones. It is shown that the northeast-southwest direction is predominant in the displacements of cyclones in the North Pacific. We study the variability of the field of surface atmospheric pressure in different phases of the Pacific decadal oscillation characterizing the temperature anomalies on the surface of the ocean in the region bounded by 20 and 60°N. It is shown that the decadal variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation supported by the large-scale anomalies of the Pacific decadal oscillation is the most important cause of natural decadal oscillations in the European region. We study and evaluate the regional response to the Pacific decadal oscillation by using, as an example, the analysis of variations of the discharge of European rivers. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 4, pp. 13–23, July–August, 2007.