Geostatistical analysis and conditional simulation for estimating the spatial variability of hydraulic conductivity in the Choushui River alluvial fan,Taiwan

This work evaluated the spatial variability and distribution of heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity (K) in the Choushui River alluvial fan in Taiwan, using ordinary kriging (OK) and mean and individual sequential Gaussian simulations (SGS). A baseline flow model constructed by upscaling parameters was inversely calibrated to determine the pumping and recharge rates. Simulated heads using different K realizations were then compared with historically measured heads. A global/local simulated error between simulated and measured heads was analysed to assess the different spatial variabilities of various estimated K distributions. The results of a MODFLOW simulation indicate that the OK realization had the smallest sum of absolute mean simulation errors (SAMSE) and the SGS realizations preserved the spatial variability of the measured K fields. Moreover, the SAMSE increases as the spatial variability of the K field increases. The OK realization yields small local simulation errors in the measured K field of moderate magnitude, whereas the SGS realizations have small local simulation errors in the measured K fields, with high and low values. The OK realization of K can be applied to perform a deterministic inverse calibration. The mean SGS method is suggested for constructing a K field when the application focuses on extreme values of estimated parameters and small calibration errors, such as in a simulation of contaminant transport in heterogeneous aquifers. The individual SGS realization is useful in stochastically assessing the spatial uncertainty of highly heterogeneous aquifers. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于背向散射脉冲传播时间统计特性的随机界面参数反演研究

研究了利用背向散射脉冲传播时间统计特性反演随机界面参数的问题.首先扩展了Fuks & Godin关于随机界面背向散射脉冲传播时间统计特性理论,给出了当随机界面高度-斜率统计相关情形下,最早返回的两个脉冲传播时间及其时延的概率密度函数（PDF）表达式.进而提出了一种基于背向散射脉冲传播时间统计特性的随机界面参数反演算法：采用遗传算法匹配前两个背向散射脉冲传播时间及其时延的PDF实现随机界面高度—斜率相关系数的绝对值|ρ|和无量纲参数T的反演.最后利用参数的后验概率分析反演结果的不确定性.数值模拟结果表明：该算法可有效反演随机界面的参数,参数|ρ|相对于T反演精度较高;|ρ|和T之间存在较强的参数耦合.与前人认为可忽略高度—斜率相关性（|ρ|）的观点不同：此类反演问题中应同时考虑|ρ|和T.     

Simulation of Near-Fault Strong Ground Motion in the Beijing Region

On the basis of previous study of the 1679 Sanhe-Pinggu(M8.0) earthquake,the biggest event in history ever recorded in Beijing and its adjacent area,we made a 3-D strong ground motion simulation utilizing the staggered-grid finite differences method to study the distributions of peak ground velocity with different earthquake source models in the Beijing region.In the paper,earthquake source models and a transmission medium velocity model are established and the corresponding parameters are given in accordance to the results from a related previous study.Then,using a three-dimensional finite difference computing program of near-fault strong ground motion developed by Graves,the peak ground velocity caused by a destructive earthquake in the Beijing area is simulated.In our computation model,the earthquake source is 3km in depth,and a total number of 21,679 observation points on the ground surface are figured out.The transmission medium velocity model is composed of four stratums which are the Quaternary deposit,the upper crust,the upper part of the middle crust and the lower part of the middle crust.With the minimum grid spacing of 0.15km,a total of 2.28×106 grids are generated.Using a time step of 0.02 seconds we calculated the peak ground velocity for a duration of 8 seconds.After the analysis of the simulation results,we observed some basic characteristics of near-fault strong ground motion such as the concentration effect of near-fault peak ground velocity,rupture directivity effect,hanging wall effect,and basin effect.The results from our simulation and analysis suggest that the source and transmitting medium parameters in our model are suitable and the finite difference method is applicable to estimate the distribution of strong ground motion in the study region.     

龙岗金龙顶子火山空降碎屑物数值模拟及概率性灾害评估

空降碎屑物为爆炸式火山喷发产生的一种重要的灾害类型,数值模拟已成为一个快速有效地确定火山灰扩散和沉积范围的方法。本文根据改进的Suzuki(1983)二维扩散模型,编写了基于Windows环境下的火山灰扩散程序。通过对前人资料的分析,模拟了龙岗火山群中最新火山喷发——金龙顶子火山喷发产生的空降碎屑物扩散范围,与实测结果具有很好的一致性,证实了模型的可靠性和参数的合理性。根据该区10年的风参数,模拟了7021次不同风参数时金龙顶子火山灰的扩散范围,以此制作了火山灰沉积厚度超过1cm和0.5cm时的概率性空降碎屑灾害区划图。本文的研究可为龙岗火山区火山危险性分析和灾害预警与对策提供重要的科学依据。     

地震动模拟过程中断层参数的敏感性分析

地震发生后通常无法快速获取较准确的断层参数,这可能会对采用地震动模拟方法进行地震动强度快速评估产生影响。选取美国西部两次地震,采用两种地震动模拟方法,通过改变断层走向、滑移角、倾角和震源深度等主要断层参数进行模拟计算,分析不同参数对地震动参数和反应谱值的影响以及不同方法计算结果的准确性。结果表明:GP方法模拟的结果比EXSIM方法更接近观测值;在参数误差范围内,相比于模拟方法本身的误差,各参数对模拟结果的影响较小,地震动强度快速评估时可以利用较合理的快速反演断层参数进行地震动模拟。     

INVESTIGATION OF SOME NON-LINEAR PHENOMENA OF INDUCED POLARIZATION USING A PHYSICAL-AND-MATHEMATICAL MODEL*

The electrical behaviour of a polarizable sample formerly studied (Time-Domain) through both the classical and the condenser methods is simulated using the theoretical responses given by a three dimensional physical-and-mathematical model, which has been proposed in a previous paper by one of us on the basis of certain hypotheses. The apparent capacitance responses of the sample are qualitatively simulated in order to tackle the problem under this point of view; moreover, an attempt to obtain a quantitative simulation of experimental data within the limits of the present reliability of the model, using theoretically obtained Model Master Curves characterized by dimensionless parameters, is done. This research is carried out in the frame of a broader study referring to a possible scheme of simulation of the so-called induced ionic polarization, concerning a number of idealized pseudo-reversible, potentially irreversible, non-linear phenomena.     

Modelling forest regeneration strategies through the development of a spatio-temporal growth interaction model

Forest regeneration methods are an important factor in the generation of future forest spatial patterns. However, the difficulty of obtaining experimental data to study such interfering operations, mainly due the long life-span of tree species, has limited the analysis of these key silvicultural tools. Stochastic simulation of such real forest scenarios (i.e. simulated forest) is, therefore, a practical alternative to analyse such prescribed treatments. Here we adapt the Renshaw and Särkkä model to study forest regeneration strategies following the previous work of Renshaw et al. (Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess, 2008). We show that the highly flexible Renshaw and Särkkä algorithm to generate marked point configurations evolving through continuous time is easily adapted to enable the simulation and the comparative study of different forest regeneration methods. In particular, we consider two important regeneration strategies, namely, the shelterwood and the single-tree selection methods due to their forest importance. The results obtained strongly suggested that combining the birth-growth–spatial interaction model with a spatially explicit regeneration algorithm results in a flexible and realistic mechanism to mimic real forest dynamics.     

YSU边界层参数化方案中不同地形订正方法对地面风速及温度模拟的影响

为了修正中尺度气象模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting model)对低层风速模拟的系统性误差,有学者在新版本WRF模式的YSU(Yonsei University)边界层参数化方案中加入了两个地形订正方法:Jiménez方法和UW(University of Washington method)方法.本文利用这两个地形订正方法,选取了两个时间段,对北京地区的地面气象要素以及气象要素垂直廓线进行了个例模拟研究,模拟结果和观测数据的比对表明在北京地区:是否采用地形订正,对地面温度的模拟几乎没有影响;采用地形订正后,模式对地面风速的模拟有明显的改进,两种方法对风速模拟的差别主要体现在山/丘陵地区;Jiménez方法在山/丘陵地区的模拟风速明显偏大,而采用UW方法进行订正后,模拟的风速减小,更接近观测值;两种方法在山谷地区对风速均有一定的过度订正.通过分析气象要素的垂直廓线发现,不同地形订正方法主要影响的是2000m以下的低层风速.总体而言,UW地形订正方法在北京地区更为适用,采用UW方法后,模拟得到的地面气象要素的各项统计参数基本达到了统计基准值.     

2008年汶川8.0级大地震近场强地面运动的模拟

运用经验格林函数法模拟了2008年5月12日汶川8.0级大地震的近场强地面运动.拟合过程中,首先参考其他学者反演结果给出的滑动量分布的特征,确定强震动生成区的大致范围;然后利用Somerville等(1999)提出的地震矩与凹凸体面积间的经验关系式确定强震动生成区(SMGA)细小划分的初值,继而利用遗传优化算法确定以上两者的最优值及其他震源参数.数值模拟波形同实际地震观测记录在时间域和频率域分别进行了比较,结果显示,在所选取的18个观测台中,多数台站的数值模拟结果同实际观测结果符合得很好,特别是大于1 Hz的高频部分.我们发现断层面上有5个强震动生成区,其中两个的位置与其他学者反演的滑动量集中分布区相一致,但强震动生成区规模和上升时间比Somerville等(1999)获得的定标率外延的估计值要小.     

利用小震分布和区域应力场确定大震断层面参数方法及其在唐山地震序列中的应用

根据成丛小震发生在大震断层面及其附近的原则,将模拟退火算法和高斯-牛顿算法结合,给出了利用小震密集程度求解主震断层面走向、倾角、位置及其误差的稳健估计方法,在此基础上考虑区域构造应力参数,给出了估计在已求得的断层面上的滑动角的方法.该方法还可用于小震活跃地区活断层走向、倾角和滑动角的确定.将这种方法用于唐山地震序列,采用2002年4月1日至2006年5月31日发生在地震破裂区的精定位地震目录,求得了唐山地震、滦县地震、宁河及卢龙断裂带的断层面走向、倾角、位置及滑动角参数.与前人给出的断层面解进行比较,发现利用小震精定位资料和区域构造应力场得到的结果与前人采用其他资料和方法得到的结果近似,验证了这种方法的有效性.另外,本研究首次发现滦县地震区东部的小震呈北东-南西向条带状成丛发生,可精确刻画为一条断裂带,较为精确地确定了此断层的走向、倾角和滑动角.该断裂及宁河断裂在唐山地震序列发生时是否破裂需要运用其他资料进行验证.     

龙门山地区的kappa（κ0）模型及汶川MS8.0地震的强地震动模拟

在地震动模拟中,高频衰减参数（κ₀）是一个重要的参数,它控制了傅里叶谱高频部分的衰减特性.本文利用汶川M_S8.0地震和芦山M_S7.0地震主余震的1671组强震动观测记录,计算了龙门山地区50个断层距小于150 km的强震动台站的κ₀,基于随机有限断层法模拟了汶川地震中这些台站的加速度时程、傅里叶振幅谱和反应谱,并与前人的研究进行比较.结果表明,合理计算的κ₀可以有效地改善加速度时程振幅和高频谱（>1 Hz）的模拟结果.另一方面,本文基于κ₀与地形高程的相关性,建立了龙门山地区的κ₀经验模型.分别采用该经验模型和κ₀= 0.04 s模拟了汶川地震的峰值加速度分布,并与观测记录进行比较.结果表明,采用本文提出的κ₀模型可以更好地重现汶川地震的峰值加速度分布,特别是在断层破裂方向的反方向区域和山区.综上,汶川地震中山区的峰值加速度明显大于盆地地区的现象,不仅与断层破裂产状有关,还与山区和盆地地区的κ₀之间显著的差异有关.     

Development of regional simulation of seismic ground‐motion and induced liquefaction enhanced by GPU computing

Much research has been conducted for physics‐based ground‐motion simulation to reproduce seismic response of soil and structures precisely and to mitigate damages caused by earthquakes. We aimed at enabling physics‐based ground‐motion simulations of complex three‐dimensional (3D) models with multiple materials, such as a digital twin (high‐fidelity 3D model of the physical world that is constructed in cyberspace). To perform one case of such simulation requires high computational cost and it is necessary to perform a number of simulations for the estimation of parameters or consideration of the uncertainty of underground soil structure data. To overcome this problem, we proposed a fast simulation method using graphics processing unit computing that enables a simulation with small computational resources. We developed a finite‐element‐based method for large‐scale 3D seismic response analysis with small programming effort and high maintainability by using OpenACC, a directive‐based parallel programming model. A lower precision variable format was introduced to achieve further speeding up of the simulation. For an example usage of the developed method, we applied the developed method to soil liquefaction analysis and conducted two sets of simulations that compared the effect of countermeasures against soil liquefaction: grid‐form ground improvement to strengthen the earthquake resistance of existing houses and replacement of liquefiable backfill soil of river wharves for seismic reinforcement of the wharf structure. The developed method accelerates the simulation and enables us to quantitatively estimate the effect of countermeasures using the high‐fidelity 3D soil‐structure models on a small cluster of computers.     

Properties and limitations of sequential indicator simulation

The sequential indicator algorithm is a widespread geostatistical simulation technique that relies on indicator (co)kriging and is applicable to a wide range of datasets. However, such algorithm comes up against several limitations that are often misunderstood. This work aims at highlighting these limitations, by examining what are the conditions for the realizations to reproduce the input parameters (indicator means and correlograms) and what happens with the other parameters (other two-point or multiple-point statistics). Several types of random functions are contemplated, namely: the mosaic model, random sets, models defined by multiple indicators and isofactorial models. In each case, the conditions for the sequential algorithm to honor the model parameters are sought after. Concurrently, the properties of the multivariate distributions are identified and some conceptual impediments are emphasized. In particular, the prior multiple-point statistics are shown to depend on external factors such as the total number of simulated nodes and the number and locations of the samples. As a consequence, common applications such as a flow simulation or a change of support on the realizations may lead to hazardous interpretations.     

Soil-structure interaction analysis of the Hualien containment model

This paper presents results from forced vibration tests, microtremor observations and earthquake response analysis of a nuclear reactor containment model constructed on stiff soil in Hualien, Taiwan. The dynamic behavior of the soil-structure system is simulated successfully with two numerical models: a sway-rocking model, whose soil parameters are evaluated on the basis of the continuum formulation method, and a finite element model, using the program SASSI with the flexible volume substructuring approach. The dependences of the soil parameters of both models on the amplitudes of the different dynamic excitations are investigated in detail. An original numerical simulation of microtremor is performed. Comparison with results of a previous study involving a rigid tower on a soft soil site in Chiba, Japan is offered.     

Glacier mass balance simulation using SWAT distributed snow algorithm

Application of a temperature-index melt model incorporated into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is presented to simulate mass balance (MB) and equilibrium line altitude (ELA) of three glaciers. The snow accumulation/melt parameters were adjusted to glacierized and free glacier areas, respectively. The SWAT snow algorithm enabled us to consider spatial variation of snow parameters by elevation bands across the sub-basins, while in the previous studies using SWAT, the related parameters were constant for an entire basin. The results show slight improvement in runoff simulation and significant improvement in simulated MB when considering ELA in model calibration. The results showed that SWAT can be applied to simulate MB, vertical MB distribution and annual ELA, with light calibration efforts for data-scarce catchments. The accuracy of the results depends on the modelled area of ablation zone from which most of the meltwater is released.     

大尺度断层活动性数值模拟及地震学类比

本文建立了大尺度断层（100～1000 km）的二维模型,利用ANSYS有限元软件平台,采用接触模式,模拟了百年时间尺度走滑断层的位错运动.结果表明,不同的断层力学参数,特别在断层强度非均匀分布的状态下,断层位错运动存在明显的非均匀时、空分布的特征.然而,不同模型的断层位错运动还显示出一些共同的特征,即断层位错运动表现为闭锁期、准静态预滑期和瞬间滑动,以及与之相应的应力（应变）的积累、调整和释放等等.这些结果也与实验室内小尺度的岩石物理实验相类似.与此同时,模拟结果与实际地震活动表现出的重复性和准周期特征较为相似.模拟发现,对于参数分布较为复杂的断层模型,其数值模拟提示的地震过程相对复杂得多.对于一个近尺度近1000 km,在接触面上设置了两个剪切强度相对较大区域的断层模型而言,模拟对应地震活动显示,其模拟地震断层位错分段发生,其高强度的区域基本控制了断层的地震位错运动.整个断层的模拟地震位错呈现出了地震触发、震中迁移、大震重复等与实际地震活动性相似的特征.     

裂缝诱导双相HTI介质地震波场错格伪谱法模拟与波场特征分析

裂缝诱导的双相具有水平对称轴的横向各向同性(HTI)介质模型是由一组平行排列的垂直裂缝嵌入到统计各向同性的流体饱和多孔隙岩石中而组成的,它综合考虑了裂缝型储层岩石的各向异性和孔隙性.高精度的地震波场数值模拟技术是研究该介质中地震波传播规律的主要方法.本文结合错格伪谱法和时间分裂法,求解描述该介质中地震波传播的一阶速度-应力方程.模拟了单层和双层模型中的地震波场,并对其进行了特征分析.研究结果表明:错格伪谱法能有效消除标准网格伪谱法波场模拟结果中出现的数值伪影现象,与时间分裂法结合能够获得稳定的、高精度的模拟结果;裂缝诱导双相HTI介质中的地震波场兼具裂缝各向异性介质和双相介质中传播的地震波的波场特征.     

Bayesian uncertainty analysis in hydrological modeling associated with watershed subdivision level: a case study of SLURP model applied to the Xiangxi River watershed,China

Uncertainty analysis in hydrological modeling would help to better implement decision-making related to water resources management, which relies heavily on hydrologic simulations. However, an important concern will be raised over the uncertainty associated with watershed subdivision broadly applied in distributed/semi-distributed hydrological models since scale issues would significantly affect model performance, and thus, lead to dramatic variations in simulations. To fully understand the uncertainty associated with watershed subdivision level, however, is still a tough work confronting researchers because of complex modeling processes and high computation requirements. In this study, we analyzed this uncertainty within a formal Bayesian framework using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method based on Metropolis–Hastings algorithm. In a case study using the semi-distributed land use-based runoff processes hydrologic model in the Xiangxi River watershed, results showed that the variation in the simulated discharges due to parameter uncertainty was much smaller than that due to parameter and model uncertainty under different watershed subdivision levels defined using aggregated simulation areas (ASAs). However, the posterior probability distribution of model parameters varied in response to subdivision levels, and four parameters (i.e. maximum infiltration rate, retention constant for slow store, maximum capacity for slow store, and retention constant for fast store) were identified with smaller uncertainty. Although the uncertainty in the simulated discharge due to parameter and model uncertainty varied little across subdivisions, the simulation uncertainty only due to parameter uncertainty was found to be reduced through increasing the subdivisions. In addition, the coarsest subdivision level (7 ASAs) was not sufficient for obtaining satisfying simulations in the Xiangxi River watershed, but inappreciable improvement was achieved through increasing the level among finer subdivisions. Moreover, it was demonstrated that increasing subdivision level would have no advantage of improving the reliability of hydrological simulations beyond the threshold (45 ASAs). The findings of this research may shed light on the design of operational hydrological forecasting in the Three Gorges Reservoir region with profound socio-economic implications.     

昆仑山MS81地震震源参数的多破裂段模拟研究

昆仑山MS81地震的已有研究结果在破裂带长度、破裂面方向、破裂面大小等震源破裂特征参数方面存在较大差异.本文采用D-InSAR技术首次获得昆仑山MS81地震干涉同震形变场，结合野外科学考察的实测值，进行了主破裂带InSAR视线向变化量的分解，通过对InSAR分解结果、野外科学考察、遥感解译等多源数据综合分析，重新划分了昆仑山地震的次级破裂段.进而通过对地震南北盘同震应变的分析，发现了昆仑山地震的南北两盘分别受挤压和拉张两种应力作用，研究表明多种岩石在拉张和压力作用下其最小主应力下的杨氏模量表现出非线性弹性特征，从而提出对昆仑山地震地表位移及震源特征参数分析时应考虑非线弹性介质导致的非线性弹性位移分布特征.基于上述原因，本文对Okada线弹性位错模型的算法进行了改进，提出了“多震源、非均一位错分量、多破裂段叠加”的线弹性模型，该模型模拟出的形变场干涉纹图较好地体现了地震形变场的分布特征，并由此获得了一套较为完整的地震发震断层的几何学特征参数，为破裂带长度、破裂面方向、破裂面大小等震源破裂特征参数研究提供了较好的解释.