修正的镜质体反射率剥蚀厚度恢复方法

针对目前用的地层剥蚀厚度恢复镜质体反射率差值法所存在问题,在考察地层沉降、抬升、再沉降埋藏史过程的基础上,根据有机质演化累积性和不可逆性原则,利用经典的有机质成熟度时温关系模型（ＴＴＩ）,建立了修正的镜质体反射率剥蚀厚度恢复方法。该方法不仅考虑了剥蚀界面上下镜质体反射率的相对值,还考虑了各自绝对量,与以往仅考虑镜质体反射率差值相比,有较大改进。     

The Uncertainty in the True End Point of a Fossil's Stratigraphic Range When Stratigraphic Sections Are Sampled Discretely

Stratigraphic sections are often sampled at well-defined discrete points. Because of the incompleteness of the fossil record, a particular species may not be observed even when it is extant at a sampling point. We introduce a model and Bayesian analysis for estimating the true time of disappearance of a lineage from a section in the face of the possibility that failure to find the species beyond its observed stratigraphic range may represent false negatives. We incorporate proper prior information, including an estimated longevity of the species and the probability that it will be observed if extant. Our analysis produces a posterior density for the true extinction time of the species. Summaries of this probability distribution provide a point estimate of the extinction time, a standard deviation for the uncertainty in the estimate, and confidence intervals for the time of extinction. We apply our model to stratigraphic ranges of benthic foraminifera collected from the early Late Cretaceous (Cenomanian and Turonian) from Eastbourne, England.     

The Uncertainty in the True End Point of a Fossil's Stratigraphic Range When Stratigraphic Sections Are Sampled Discretely

Stratigraphic sections are often sampled at well-defined discrete points. Because of the incompleteness of the fossil record, a particular species may not be observed even when it is extant at a sampling point. We introduce a model and Bayesian analysis for estimating the true time of disappearance of a lineage from a section in the face of the possibility that failure to find the species beyond its observed stratigraphic range may represent false negatives. We incorporate proper prior information, including an estimated longevity of the species and the probability that it will be observed if extant. Our analysis produces a posterior density for the true extinction time of the species. Summaries of this probability distribution provide a point estimate of the extinction time, a standard deviation for the uncertainty in the estimate, and confidence intervals for the time of extinction. We apply our model to stratigraphic ranges of benthic foraminifera collected from the early Late Cretaceous (Cenomanian and Turonian) from Eastbourne, England.     

唐山沿海地区地面沉降渗流固结耦合模拟研究

唐山沿海地区经济在迅速发展,沿海地区城市化规模在扩大,地下水开采量增大,地面沉降加剧.文中分析了唐山沿海地区的水文地质条件,概化为3个含水层、3个弱透水层,共6个压缩层.建立了三维地下水流和垂向一维压缩完全耦合模型.采用25a的观测资料校正模型,计算值与实测值拟合较好,模型具有较高的仿真性和适用性.预测了10a末的地面沉降;当地下水以现有开采量开采时,沉降中心累计达1192.3mm, 10a沉降352.3mm,沉降速率为35.23mma-1;当地下水的开采量在现有开采量的基础上增加10%时,沉降中心累计达1260.8mm, 10a沉降420.8mm,沉降速率为42.08mma-1; 当地下水的开采量在现有开采量的基础上减小10%时,沉降中心累计达1088.7mm, 10a沉降247.9mm,沉降速率为24.79mma-1.增大10%的地下水开采量, 10a地面沉降量增加68.5mm;减少10%的地下水开采量, 10a地面沉降量减少104.4mm.因此,控制地下水开采量是控制地面沉降的有效方法.     

基于价值的管理——经济增加值EVA

传统的业绩衡量指标没有扣除股本资本的成本，因此无法判断公司为股东创造的价值的准确数量。EVA作为企业新的绩效管理工具，能够更准确地衡量企业为股东创造的实际价值，在企业管理体系、激励制度、评价指标、企业文化等方面将起到十分重要的作用。     

The updated kriging variance and optimal sample design

A number of criteria based on kriging variance calculations may be used for infill sampling design in geologic site characterization. Searching for the best new sample locations from a set of candidate locations can result in excessive computation time if these criteria and the naive rekriging are used. The relative updated kriging estimate and variance for universal kriging estimation are demonstrated as a simple kriging estimate and variance, respectively. The updated kriging variance is demonstrated as the multiplication of two kriging variances. Using these updated kriging variance equations can increase the computational speed for selecting the best new sample locations. The application results for oil rock thickness in an oilfield indicate that minimizing the average relative updated kriging variance is a useful alternative to the other criteria based on kriging variance in optimal infill sampling design for geologic site characterization.     

塔里木地区寒武纪早期海陆格局

寒武纪早期(基本相当于纽芬兰世和第二世)是塔里木地区海相烃源岩层的重要沉积期。对这一时期塔里木地区海陆格局的研究将有助于其海相油气资源潜力的评价。本文在前人研究的基础上,野外调查和收集分析地质露头剖面13条、钻井柱状剖面10条,并参考部分地震剖面资料,构建了塔里木地区寒武纪早期海陆环境格局,编制了海陆格局与构造-沉积环境图。在研究结果中,明确了铁门关一带的微陆块性质,并认为它与北库鲁克塔格台地同属塔里木北部被动陆缘;在塔里木陆表海盆地内,依据新的资料,划分了不同沉积环境区。     

东营凹陷沙河街组生物扰动构造半定量分析试验

根据东营凹陷沙河街组若干层段保存遗迹化石的形态、分异度、潜穴大小、密度、潜穴生成次序与相互叠复程度及原生沉积构造清晰度等指标,半定量地估算了它们的生物扰动指数,绘制了指数曲线图和直方图;在详尽分析生物遗迹组构基础上编制了组构分解图。     

Interpretation of single-well tracer tests using fractional-flow dimensions. Part 1: Theory and mathematical models

Generalized equations using fractional-flow dimensions were derived to estimate the Darcy and seepage velocities obtained from the point-dilution and the single-well injection-withdrawal field tests conducted in fractured-rock aquifers. Seepage velocities can only be estimated from single-well tests if the hydraulic conductivity and the hydraulic gradient are known a priori. However, if a radial-convergent test is also performed between two boreholes, the kinematic porosity can be estimated and be used to estimate the seepage velocity from the single-well test results. To apply the generalized equations, the flow dimension and the extent of the flow region must be known. Therefore, the generalized radial flow (GRF) model of Barker (1988; a generalized radial flow model for hydraulic tests in fractured rock. Water Resour Res 24(10):1796–1804) is used to estimate the flow dimension because of its wide range of applications. A pumping test performed on the boreholes will yield an estimate of the fractional-flow dimension by applying the GRF model. Electronic Publication     

中国西北干旱区降雪和极端降雪变化特征及未来趋势

降雪是中国西北干旱区水文系统中关键的组成要素, 同时也是对气候变化极为敏感的因子。利用中国西北干旱区的89个气象站点逐日气象资料结合IPCC-CMIP5气候情景数据, 研究了该区域降雪和极端降雪的时空变化特征, 并分析了其对气候变化的响应机理及未来变化趋势。结果表明： 1971—2010年, 我国西北干旱区年降雪量显著增加, 但降雪次数却明显减少; 年极端降雪发生次数占总降雪次数的比例不足3%, 但其对年降雪量的平均贡献可达1/4, 且极端降雪量和发生次数的增加是近40年西北干旱区降雪总量增加的主要原因。极端降雪发生时的气温要比非极端降雪发生时的气温平均高3.3 ℃; 当气温在1 ℃以下, 降雪强度随气温升高而增大, 该变化特征基本符合克劳修斯-克拉伯龙方程理论, 气候变暖是导致极端降雪显著增加的主要原因。在RCP4.5气候情景下, 我国西北干旱区未来年降雪次数将大幅减少, 年降雪量将在（2040±5）年前后达到峰值随后下降, 年极端降雪量和发生次数预计（2060±5）年左右达到峰值; 相比基准期, 2050s西北干旱区所有站点的年降雪发生次数都将明显减少, 区域平均年降雪量将减少5%, 而年极端降雪量和发生次数有微弱的增加, 分别增加约2%和4%。     

The youngest marine deposits preserved in southern Tibet and disappearance of the Tethyan Ocean

Fossil ages as young as Priabonian (38–34 Ma) are reported for the last marine sedimentary rocks in southern Tibet. Correlation is based on examination of foraminifers and nannofossil biostratigraphy of youngest preserved sediments in sections at Gamba (Zongpu), Tingri (Qumiba) as well as a previously unreported section at Yadong. Our results demonstrate that a marine seaway remained in existence south of the Yarlung Tsangpo suture zone until at least Priabonian time. Notably this remains a maximum age estimate in this area as all sections are truncated by erosion or faulting. We compare our results with sections throughout the Himalaya region to demonstrate that shallow marine conditions existed widely during the Eocene period. In fact, it seems likely that the marine conditions in the Tethyan Himalaya did not entirely disappear by the end of Priabonian, especially in the eastern Himalaya. The data presented in this study place direct constraints on the elimination of the Tethyan Ocean and thus have important implications for timing of the India–Eurasia collision.     

熔体的形态与分布特征对岩石流变的影响

熔体的形态与分布研究表明,在静态条件下,熔融程度比较低时,熔体主要分布于三个矿物颗粒之间,形成三角形状熔体结构,熔体二面角在0°~60°;熔融程度比较高时,熔体沿多个颗粒边界形成孤立的三角形或四边形结构,熔体三联点的二面角接近60°或大于60°。在动态条件下,在部分或全部矿物颗粒边界出现熔体薄膜,把熔体三角形连通,形成局部熔体网络,熔体三联点的二面角接近0°。如果熔体呈孤立的三角形或四边形结构时,熔体对岩石流变的影响比较小:当熔体含量小于2%~3%,熔体对岩石流变基本没有影响;只有熔体含量接近或超过3%~5%,熔体对流变强度的弱化作用才出现,当熔体含量达到10%时,流变强度弱化增加3倍左右。如果矿物颗粒边界出现熔体薄膜,微量熔体(小于1%)就对岩石流变强度有显著的弱化作用。流变实验表明,在颗粒边界含有小于1%的熔体时,熔体对流变强度的弱化达到4倍,当颗粒边界含有3%的熔体时,这种弱化作用达到10倍。     

Boundaries of air mass trajectory clustering: key points and applications

Calculating air mass trajectories is common in atmospheric analyses. However, if explainable results are to be achieved, several procedures are needed to process the vast amount of information handled. Clustering methods are statistical tools usually considered for such a purpose. Although they are based on rigorous algorithms, certain questions still remain when these methods are applied. The current review is organised in sections according to the sequence followed by such procedures. First, the types of clustering methods are described, with their core being the distance used. One key point is the stopping rule, which determines the final number of clusters. A simple classification based on this number is then suggested. Finally, the graphical presentation of the results is examined and the main drawbacks are commented on. A range of applications and results are considered to illustrate each section, and certain caveats and recommendations are also presented.     

Evaluation of secondary compression of sands and silts from CPTU

The estimate of secondary compression behaviour of sandy and silty deposits is not routinely taken into account in the classical settlement calculation, due to its generally limited contribution to the total amount of strains. However, such soils exhibit a non-negligible time-dependent behaviour and the prediction of their long-term response may sometimes be important.

This paper explores the capability of the piezocone test as an effective tool to estimate the one-dimensional secondary compression characteristics of sands and silts. The approach is mainly based on the observation that frictional response essentially governs both secondary compression of granular soils and cone resistance, hence it seems reasonable to establish a valid correlation among them.

The study uses part of the field data assembled over the last years at the Treporti Test Site (Venice, Italy), within an extensive research project aimed at analysing the stress-strain-time response of the predominantly silty sediments forming the Venetian lagoon subsoil.

Empirical, site-specific correlations for estimating the secondary compression coefficient from cone resistance are proposed. The regression analyses indicate that the estimate is slightly improved if the cone resistance-based correlations include a variable accounting for the different pore pressure response associated to the drainage conditions around the advancing cone.     

Stratigraphic reconstruction of the Strzelecki Group outcrops in west Gippsland: new data on the present-day thickness and amount of erosion

The Lower Cretaceous Strzelecki Group forms the basement to the eastern part of the Gippsland Basin, but is exposed in the west and forms spectacular outcrops, especially along the coastal area between San Remo and Inverloch. The coastal area is highly faulted and lacks stratigraphic markers so matching sections in different fault blocks based only on lithology has not been possible. A combination of mapping, detailed logging, vitrinite reflectance measurements and palynology were used to determine the present-day thickness of the coastal sections and the amount of erosion that occurred during the Late Cretaceous. A total thickness of about 1500 m is inferred between Harmers Haven and Inverloch but because of the amount of faulting and probable repeated sections, the true thickness of Strzelecki Group exposed in the coastal outcrops is only about 300 m. Based on palynology and vitrinite reflectance results, the reconstructed Strzelecki Group stratigraphy has been subdivided into three distinct ‘bio-blocks’, with an eroded section estimated to range from 1.5 km (0.3–2.6 km at ±95% confidence limits) to 2.7 km (2.2–3.1 km at ±95% confidence limits).     

井间分溶示踪估计重非水相污染物残留量的影响因素数值分析

对于重非水相污染场地,传统的钻孔取样方式因经费和取样个数的限制,往往无法准确估计含水层中重非水相污染物的残留量。井间分溶示踪法费用较低,且不会对污染源区造成破坏,可适用于推估重非水相污染物残留量,但目前该方法的准确性尚未得到验证。本文基于数值模拟方法探讨了示踪剂注入速率、示踪剂类型以及污染源区结构等多因素对井间分溶示踪估计重非水相污染物残留量准确性的影响。数值算例结果表明:井间分溶示踪实验估计重非水相污染物残留量的误差小于15%;降低示踪剂的注入速率使得分溶性示踪剂在非水相和水相流体间作用更充分,能够提高井间分溶示踪估计重非水相污染物残留量的精度,实验中示踪剂注入速率由500 m3/d降为250 m3/d后,多种情景的平均精度由91.68%提高至93%;选取低分溶系数的示踪剂有利于提高示踪剂的回收率,从而提高推估精度,实验中示踪剂由2,2-二甲基-3-戊醇改为己醇后,平均精度由87.83%提高至96.85%;复杂的重非水相液体污染源区结构易于出现示踪剂绕流等现象,导致井间分溶示踪估计重非水相污染物残留量的误差增大,实验中含水层由均质变为非均质后,平均精度由93.03%变为91.65%。重非水相污染场地调查时,建议结合数值模拟方法选择适宜的示踪剂和示踪剂注入速率,以提高污染场地的刻画精度。     

某石化污染场地含水层自然降解BTEX能力评估

地下水污染问题是国家关注的重要环境问题之一,监测与评估含水层自然降解污染物能力是防治地下水污染的基本手段,也是国外地下水中修复技术研究热点课题。以华北平原某石油化工类场地为案例,通过调查场地水文地质条件、土壤及地下水污染现状,监测场地地下水中苯系物(BTEX)浓度及相关化学参数变化,运用微生物水文地球化学方法和水文地质方法,估算了该场地含水层自然降解苯系物量。这一研究成果为评估我国石油类场地地下水污染的自然修复能力提供了实证和基础数据。     

137Cs法和210Pb法对比研究鄱阳湖近代沉积速率

本文报道了应用137Cs法和210Pb法对比研究鄱阳湖近代沉积速率。按黄海高程11.1-14.6m湖区的沉积速率在1.0-3.7mm·a-1之间,平均值为2.2mm·a-1。文中还讨论了用γ谱法验证137Cs法和210Pb法给出的沉积速率的结果。137Cs法给出的沉积速率与γ谱法的结果是一致的,而210Pb法给出的沉积速率比γ谱法和137Cs法的结果约偏低16％。     

开平煤田深部9煤厚度预测的数学模型分析

开平煤田深部9煤层是重要的战略后备资源．对煤厚预测的可靠程度,是准确估算资源量的关键。根据该煤田沉积环境、赋煤规律及构造发育特征,选择了3条不同方向的剖面,建立了以煤层厚度及煤层厚度预测点与煤层露头之问距离的线性回归模型、多项式模型及波动模型,并利用Matlab数学建模软件,对各种数学模型进行拟合。根据该煤田沉积特点,对拟合结果进行分析与对比,在此基础上选择最佳数学模型,对开平煤田深部9煤厚度进行预测。拟合结果显示,深部9煤的煤厚变化规律明显,符合多项式拟合公式,其中三次多项式预测模型的置信度较高,能较好反映深部9煤厚度变化。