Implications of climate variability for the detection of multiple equilibria and for rapid transitions in the atmosphere-vegetation system

Paleoclimatic records indicate a decline of vegetation cover in the Western Sahara at the end of the African Humid Period (about 5,500?years before present). Modelling studies have shown that this phenomenon may be interpreted as a critical transition that results from a bifurcation in the atmosphere-vegetation system. However, the stability properties of this system are closely linked to climate variability and depend on the climate model and the methods of analysis. By coupling the Planet Simulator (PlaSim), an atmosphere model of intermediate complexity, with the simple dynamic vegetation model VECODE, we assess previous methods for the detection of multiple equilibria, and demonstrate their limitations. In particular, a stability diagram can yield misleading results because of spatial interactions, and the system’s steady state and its dependency on initial conditions are affected by atmospheric variability and nonlinearities. In addition, we analyse the implications of climate variability for the abruptness of a vegetation decline. We find that a vegetation collapse can happen at different locations at different times. These collapses are possible despite large and uncorrelated climate variability. Because of the nonlinear relation between vegetation dynamics and precipitation the green state is initially stabilised by the high variability. When precipitation falls below a critical threshold, the desert state is stabilised as variability is then also decreased.     

MM5 Simulations of the China Regional Climate During the LGM.II: In uence of Change of Land Area, Vegetation, and Large-scale Circulation Background

Using a regional climate model MM5 nested to an atmospheric global climate model CCM3, a series of simulations and sensitivity experiments have been performed to investigate the relative LGM climate response to changes of land-sea distribution, vegetation, and large-scale circulation background over China.Model results show that compared with the present climate, the fluctuations of sea-land distribution in eastern Asia during the LGM result in the temperature decrease in winter and increase in summer. It has significant impact on the temperature and precipitation in the east coastal region of China. The impact on precipitation in the east coastal region of China is the most significant one, with 25%-50% decrease in the total precipitation change during the LGM. On the other hand, the changes in sea-land distribution have less influence on the climate of inland and western part of China. During the LGM, significant changes in vegetation result in temperature alternating with winter increase and summer decrease, but differences in the annual mean temperature are minor. During the LGM, the global climate, i.e., the large-scale circulation background has changed signi cantly. These changes have signi cant influences on temperature and precipitation over China. They result in considerable temperature decreases in this area, and direct the primary patterns and characteristics of temperature changes. Results display that, northeastern China has the greatest temperature decrease, and the temperature decrease in the Tibetan Plateau is larger than in the eastern part of China located at the same latitude. Moreover, the change of large-scale circulation background also controls the pattern of precipitation change. Results also show that, most of the changes in precipitation over western and northeastern parts of China are the consequences of changing large-scale circulation background, of which 50%-75% of precipitation changes over northern and eastern China are the results of changes in large-scale circulation background. Over China, the LGM climate responses to di erent mechanisms in order of strength from strong to weak are, the large-scale circulation pattern, sealand distribution, vegetation, CO2 concentration, and earth orbital parameters.     

Influence of ENSO and the South Atlantic Ocean on climate predictability over Southeastern South America

We perform a systematic study of the predictability of surface air temperature and precipitation in Southeastern South America (SESA) using ensembles of AGCM simulations, focusing on the role of the South Atlantic and its interaction with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It is found that the interannual predictability of climate over SESA is strongly tied to ENSO showing high predictability during the seasons and periods when there is ENSO influence. The most robust ENSO signal during the whole period of study (1949–2006) is during spring when warm events tend to increase the precipitation over Southeastern South America. Moreover, the predictability shows large inter-decadal changes: for the period 1949–1977, the surface temperature shows high predictability during late fall and early winter. On the other hand, for the period 1978–2006, the temperature shows (low) predictability only during winter, while the precipitation shows not only high predictability in spring but also in fall. Furthermore, it is found that the Atlantic does not directly affect the climate over SESA. However, the experiments where air–sea coupling is allowed in the south Atlantic suggest that this ocean can act as a moderator of the ENSO influence. During warm ENSO events the ocean off Brazil and Uruguay tends to warm up through changes in the atmospheric heat fluxes, altering the atmospheric anomalies and the predictability of climate over SESA. The main effect of the air–sea coupling is to strengthen the surface temperature anomalies over SESA; changes in precipitation are more subtle. We further found that the thermodynamic coupling can increase or decrease the predictability. For example, the air–sea coupling significantly increases the skill of the model in simulating the surface air temperature anomalies for most seasons during period 1949–1977, but tends to decrease the skill in late fall during period 1978–2006. This decrease in skill during late fall in 1978–2006 is found to be due to a wrong simulation of the remote ENSO signal that is further intensified by the local air–sea coupling in the south Atlantic. Thus, our results suggest that climate models used for seasonal prediction should simulate correctly not only the remote ENSO signal, but also the local air–sea thermodynamic coupling.     

Impacts of Irrigation and Vegetation Growth on Summer Rainfall in the Taklimakan Desert

In recent decades, a greening tendency due to increased vegetation has been noted around the Taklimakan Desert(TD), but the impact of such a change on the local hydrological cycle remains uncertain. Here, we investigate the response of the local hydrological cycle and atmospheric circulation to a green TD in summer using a pair of global climate model(Community Earth System Model version 1.2.1) simulations. With enough irrigation to support vegetation growth in the TD, the modeling suggests first, that significant increases in local precipitation are attributed to enhanced local recycling of water, and second, that there is a corresponding decrease of local surface temperatures. On the other hand, irrigation and vegetation growth in this low-lying desert have negligible impacts on the large-scale circulation and thus the moisture convergence for enhanced precipitation. It is also found that the green TD can only be sustained by a large amount of irrigation water supply since only about one-third of the deployed water can be "recycled " locally. Considering this,devising a way to encapsulate the irrigated water within the desert to ensure more efficient water recycling is key for maintaining a sustainable, greening TD.     

MM5 Simulations of the China Regional Climate During the LGM.Ⅱ: Influence of Change of Land Area, Vegetation, and Large-scale Circulation Background

Using a regional climate model MM5 nested to an atmospheric global climate model CCM3, a series of simulations and sensitivity experiments have been performed to investigate the relative LGM climate response to changes of land-sea distribution, vegetation, and large-scale circulation background over China.Model results show that compared with the present climate, the fluctuations of sea-land distribution in eastern Asia during the LGM result in the temperature decrease in winter and increase in summer. It has significant impact on the temperature and precipitation in the east coastal region of China. The impact on precipitation in the east coastal region of China is the most significant one, with 25%-50% decrease in the total precipitation change during the LGM. On the other hand, the changes in sea-land distribution have less influence on the climate of inland and western part of China. During the LGM, significant changes in vegetation result in temperature alternating with winter increase and summer decrease, but differences in the annual mean temperature are minor. During the LGM, the global climate, i.e., the large-scale circulation background has changed significantly. These changes have significant influences on temperature and precipitation over China. They result in considerable temperature decreases in this area, and direct the primary patterns and characteristics of temperature changes. Results display that, northeastern China has the greatest temperature decrease, and the temperature decrease in the Tibetan Plateau is larger than in the eastern part of China located at the same latitude. Moreover, the change of large-scale circulation background also controls the pattern of precipitation change. Results also show that, most of the changes in precipitation over western and northeastern parts of China are the consequences of changing large-scale circulation background, of which 50%-75% of precipitation changes over northern and eastern China are the results of changes in large-scale circulation background. Over China, the LGM climate responses to different mechanisms in order of strength from strong to weak are, the large-scale circulation pattern, sea-land distribution, vegetation, CO2 concentration, and earth orbital parameters.     

MM5对末次盛冰期中国气候的模拟研究Ⅱ:海陆分布、植被和大尺度环流背景变化的影响

利用全球模式CCM3嵌套区域模式MM5的方法研究了末次盛冰期海陆分布、植被和大尺度环流背景场变化对末次盛冰期气候变化的作用。模式结果表明:与现代相比,末次盛冰期东亚地区海陆分布发生的变化造成这一地区冬季减温,夏季增温,这个变化对中国东部近海地区的温度和降水产生明显的影响,尤其是对降水的影响。它使得中国东部地区降水减少,由此造成的降水减少占末次盛冰期降水减少的25%—50%。海陆分布的变化对内陆和中国西部地区影响很小。末次盛冰期中国东部地区植被发生了明显的变化,温带和寒带植物南移,热带植物的覆盖范围减少。中国东部地区植被的巨大变化对温度产生了影响,使该地区冬季增温,夏季减温,年平均温度变化不大。末次盛冰期全球气候发生巨大的变化,即大尺度环流背景场变化。它使得中国地区的温度和降水产生显著变化,这个变化造成中国地区温度降低,并且决定了温度变化的主要分布和变化特征,东北地区是中国末次盛冰期降温最大的地区,青藏高原的降温超过同纬度的东部地区等。同时,大尺度背景场的变化还控制着降水的变化,末次盛冰期中国西部地区和东北地区降水的变化几乎完全是背景场变化引起的,其对华北和华东地区降水的影响大约为50%—75%。综合我们研究的影响末次盛冰期中国地区气候变化的因子,按影响程度由大到小排序为:大尺度环流背景场、海陆分布变化、植被变化、CO2浓度变化和地球轨道参数变化。     

Extreme midlatitude cyclones and their implications for precipitation and wind speed extremes in simulations of the Maunder Minimum versus present day conditions

Extreme midlatitude cyclone characteristics, precipitation, wind speed events, their inter-relationships, and the connection to large-scale atmospheric patterns are investigated in simulations of a prolonged cold period, known as the Maunder Minimum from 1640 to 1715 and compared with today. An ensemble of six simulations for the Maunder Minimum as well as a control simulation for perpetual 1990 conditions are carried out with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, i.e., the Climate Community System Model (CCSM). The comparison of the simulations shows that in a climate state colder than today the occurrence of cyclones, the extreme events of precipitation and wind speed shift southward in all seasons in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific. The extremes of cyclone intensity increases significantly in winter in almost all regions, which is related to a stronger meridional temperature gradient and an increase in lower tropospheric baroclinicity. Extremes of cyclone intensity in subregions of the North Atlantic are related to extremes in precipitation and in wind speed during winter. Moreover, extremes of cyclone intensity are also connected to distinct large-scale atmospheric patterns for the different subregions, but these relationships vanish during summer. Analyzing the mean 1,000 hPa geopotential height change of the Maunder Minimum simulations compared with the control simulation, we find a similar pattern as the correlation pattern with the cyclone intensity index of the southern Europe cyclones. This illustrates that changes in the atmospheric high-frequency, i.e., the simulated southward shift of cyclones in the North Atlantic and the related increase of extreme precipitation and wind speed in particular in the Mediterranean in winter, are associated with large-scale atmospheric circulation changes.     

Quantifying atmosphere and ocean origins of North American precipitation variability

How atmospheric and oceanic processes control North American precipitation variability has been extensively investigated, and yet debates remain. Here we address this question in a 50 km-resolution flux-adjusted global climate model. The high spatial resolution and flux adjustment greatly improve the model’s ability to realistically simulate North American precipitation, the relevant tropical and midlatitude variability and their teleconnections. Comparing two millennium-long simulations with and without an interactive ocean, we find that the leading modes of North American precipitation variability on seasonal and longer timescales exhibit nearly identical spatial and spectral characteristics, explained fraction of total variance and associated atmospheric circulation. This finding suggests that these leading modes arise from internal atmospheric dynamics and atmosphere-land coupling. However, in the fully coupled simulation, North American precipitation variability still correlates significantly with tropical ocean variability, consistent with observations and prior literature. We find that tropical ocean variability does not create its own type of atmospheric variability but excites internal atmospheric modes of variability in midlatitudes. This oceanic impact on North American precipitation is secondary to atmospheric impacts based on correlation. However, relative to the simulation without an interactive ocean, the fully coupled simulation amplifies precipitation variance over southwest North America (SWNA) during late spring to summer by up to 90%. The amplification is caused by a stronger variability in atmospheric moisture content that is attributed to tropical Pacific sea surface temperature variability. Enhanced atmospheric moisture variations over the tropical Pacific are transported by seasonal mean southwesterly winds into SWNA, resulting in larger precipitation variance.

     

Climate Change in Northern Africa: The Past is Not the Future

By using a climate system model of intermediate complexity, we have simulated long-term natural climate changes occurring over the last 9000 years. The paleo-simulations in which the model is driven by orbital forcing only, i.e., by changes in insolation caused by changes in the Earth's orbit, are compared with sensitivity simulations in which various scenarios of increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration are prescribed. Focussing on climate and vegetation change in northern Africa, we recapture the strong greening of the Sahara in the early and mid-Holocene (some 9000–6000 years ago), and we show that some expansion of grasslandinto the Sahara is theoretically possible, if the atmospheric CO₂ concentration increases well above pre-industrial values and if vegetation growth is not disturbed. Depending on the rate of CO₂ increase, vegetation migration into the Sahara can be rapid, up to 1/10th of the Saharan area per decade, but could not exceed a coverage of 45%. In ourmodel, vegetation expansion into today's Sahara is triggered by an increase in summer precipitation which is amplified by a positive feedback between vegetation and precipitation. This is valid for simulations with orbital forcing and greenhouse-gas forcing. However, we argue that the mid-Holocene climate optimum some 9000 to 6000 years ago with its marked reduction of deserts in northern Africa is not a direct analogue for future greenhouse-gas induced climate change, as previously hypothesized. Not only does the global pattern of climate change differ between the mid-Holocene model experiments and the greenhouse-gas sensitivity experiments, but the relative role of mechanisms which lead to a reduction of the Sahara also changes. Moreover, the amplitude of simulated vegetation cover changes in northern Africa is less than is estimated for mid-Holocene climate.     

Regional climate model projections for the State of Washington

Global climate models do not have sufficient spatial resolution to represent the atmospheric and land surface processes that determine the unique regional climate of the State of Washington. Regional climate models explicitly simulate the interactions between the large-scale weather patterns simulated by a global model and the local terrain. We have performed two 100-year regional climate simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). One simulation is forced by the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) and the second is forced by a simulation of the Max Plank Institute, Hamburg, global model (ECHAM5). The mesoscale simulations produce regional changes in snow cover, cloudiness, and circulation patterns associated with interactions between the large-scale climate change and the regional topography and land-water contrasts. These changes substantially alter the temperature and precipitation trends over the region relative to the global model result or statistical downscaling. To illustrate this effect, we analyze the changes from the current climate (1970–1999) to the mid twenty-first century (2030–2059). Changes in seasonal-mean temperature, precipitation, and snowpack are presented. Several climatological indices of extreme daily weather are also presented: precipitation intensity, fraction of precipitation occurring in extreme daily events, heat wave frequency, growing season length, and frequency of warm nights. Despite somewhat different changes in seasonal precipitation and temperature from the two regional simulations, consistent results for changes in snowpack and extreme precipitation are found in both simulations.     

大规模植被恢复对东亚气候的可能影响

利用动态植被模型CLM4-CNDV、区域气候模式RegCM4.6-CLM3.5和全球气候模式CAM4探究了当前气候状态下东亚区域可能的自然植被分布以及自然植被恢复对东亚区域气候产生的可能影响。结果表明,当前气候条件下,农作物区可能分布的自然植被为:蒙古高原以北、东北、华北平原和四川盆地的部分地区为裸土;东亚东南部及蒙古高原以北地区主要为林地;四川盆地及山东半岛主要为灌木;东北地区、东南沿海和长江中下游地区主要为草地。将农作物区恢复为自然植被后将对区域气候产生显著影响。其中,东亚东部大部分地区由于植被叶面积指数增加引起的蒸散发增强,使得夏季降水增加且温度降低显著;华北、四川盆地和广东中部平原地区植被叶面积指数减小,伴随区域内夏季降水显著减少且温度升高。而蒙古高原地区的气候变化不仅受区域内植被覆盖变化影响,还可能与印度地区和我国东南部植被变化引起的大气环流调整有关,使得蒙古高原西部冬季温度降低,而其东部夏季温度升高,同时夏季降水减少显著。研究所采用的试验方案是在相对理想的情况下进行的,但其结果为进一步区分不同地区植被覆盖变化的影响提供一定的参考。     

Why ensemble mean projection of south Asian monsoon rainfall by CMIP5 models is not reliable?

Future projections of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and its large-scale thermodynamic driver are studied by using CMIP5 model outputs. While all models project an increasing precipitation in the future warming scenario, most of them project a weakening large-scale thermodynamic driver arising from a weakening of the upper tropospheric temperature (UTT) gradient over south Asian summer monsoon region. The weakening of the UTT gradient under global warming scenarios is related to the increase in sea surface temperature (SST) over the equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) leading to a stronger increase of UTT over the EIO region relative to the northern Indian region, a hypothesis supported by a series of Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) experiments forced by projected SSTs. To diagnose the inconsistency between the model projections of precipitation and the large-scale thermodynamic driver, we have examined the rate of total precipitation explained by convective and stratiform precipitations in observations and in CMIP5 models. It is found that most models produce too much (little) convective (stratiform) precipitation compared to observations. In addition, we also find stronger precipitable water—precipitation relationship in most CMIP5 models as compared to observations. Hence, the atmospheric moisture content produced by the model immediately gets converted to precipitation even though the large-scale thermodynamics in models weaken. Therefore, under global warming scenarios, due to increased temperature and resultant increased atmospheric moisture supply, these models tend to produce unrealistic local convective precipitation often not in tune with other large-scale variables. Our results questions the reliability of the ISMR projections in CMIP5 models and highlight the need to improve the convective parameterization schemes in coupled models for the reliable projections of the ISMR.     

MM5 Simulations of the China Regional Climate During the Mid-Holocene

Using a regional climate model MM5 nested with an atmospheric global climate model CCM3, a series of simulations and sensitivity experiments have been performed to investigate responses of the mid-Holocene climate to different factors over China. Model simulations of the mid-Holocene climate change, especially the precipitation change, are in good agreement with the geologic records. Model results show that relative to the present day (PD) climate, the temperature over China increased in the mid-Holocene, and the increase in summer is more than that in winter. The summer monsoon strengthened over the eastern China north of 30°N, and the winter monsoon weakened over the whole eastern China; the precipitation increased over the west part of China, North China, and Northeast China, and decreased over the south part of China.The sensitive experiments indicate that changes in the global climate (large-scale circulation background),vegetation, earth orbital parameter, and CO2 concentration led to the mid-Holocene climate change relative to the PD climate, and changes in precipitation, temperature and wind fields were mainly affected by change of the large-scale circulation background, especially with its effect on precipitation exceeding 50%. Changes in vegetation resulted in increasing of temperature in both winter and summer over China, especially over eastern China; furthermore, its effect on precipitation in North China accounts for 25% of the total change.Change in the orbital parameter produced the larger seasonal variation of solar radiation in the mid-Holocene than the PD, which resulted in declining of temperature in winter and increasing in summer; and also had an important effect on precipitation with an effect equivalent to vegetation in Northeast China and North China. During the mid-Holocene, CO2 content was only 280×10-6, which reduced temperature in a very small magnitude. Therefore, factors affecting the mid-Holocene climate change over China from strong to weak are large-scale circulation pattern, vegetation, earth orbital parameter, and CO2 concentration.     

Synergistic feedbacks between ocean and vegetation on mid- and high-latitude climates during the mid-Holocene

Simulations with the IPSL atmosphere–ocean model asynchronously coupled with the BIOME1 vegetation model show the impact of ocean and vegetation feedbacks, and their synergy, on mid- and high-latitude (>40°N) climate in response to orbitally-induced changes in mid-Holocene insolation. The atmospheric response to orbital forcing produces a +1.2 °C warming over the continents in summer and a cooling during the rest of the year. Ocean feedback reinforces the cooling in spring but counteracts the autumn and winter cooling. Vegetation feedback produces warming in all seasons, with largest changes (+1 °C) in spring. Synergy between ocean and vegetation feedbacks leads to further warming, which can be as large as the independent impact of these feedbacks. The combination of these effects causes the high northern latitudes to be warmer throughout the year in the ocean–atmosphere-vegetation simulation. Simulated vegetation changes resulting from this year-round warming are consistent with observed mid-Holocene vegetation patterns. Feedbacks also impact on precipitation. The atmospheric response to orbital-forcing reduces precipitation throughout the year; the most marked changes occur in the mid-latitudes in summer. Ocean feedback reduces aridity during autumn, winter and spring, but does not affect summer precipitation. Vegetation feedback increases spring precipitation but amplifies summer drying. Synergy between the feedbacks increases precipitation in autumn, winter and spring, and reduces precipitation in summer. The combined changes amplify the seasonal contrast in precipitation in the ocean–atmosphere-vegetation simulation. Enhanced summer drought produces an unrealistically large expansion of temperate grasslands, particularly in mid-latitude Eurasia.     

Impact of sub-grid variability of precipitation and canopy water storage on hydrological processes in a coupled land–atmosphere model

The impact of sub-grid variability of precipitation and canopy water storage is investigated by applying a new canopy interception scheme into the Community Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3) coupled with the Community Land Model version 3 (CLM3). Including such sub-grid variability alters the partitioning of net radiation between sensible heat flux and latent heat flux on land surface, which leads to changes in precipitation through various pathways/mechanisms. The areas with most substantial changes are Amazonia and Central Africa where convective rain is dominant and vegetation is very dense. In these areas, precipitation during December–January–February is increased by up to 2 mm/day. This increase is due to the enhanced large-scale circulation and atmospheric instability caused by including the sub-grid variability. Cloud feedback plays an important role in modifying the large-scale circulation and atmospheric instability. Turning off cloud feedback mitigates the changes in surface convergence and boundary layer height caused by inclusion of sub-grid variability of precipitation and water storage canopy, which moderate the effect on precipitation.     

Modeling the eco-hydrologic response of a Mediterranean type ecosystem to the combined impacts of projected climate change and altered fire frequencies

Global Climate Models (GCMs) project moderate warming along with increases in atmospheric CO₂ for California Mediterranean type ecosystems (MTEs). In water-limited ecosystems, vegetation acts as an important control on streamflow and responds to soil moisture availability. Fires are also key disturbances in semi-arid environments, and few studies have explored the potential interactions among changes in climate, vegetation dynamics, hydrology, elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations and fire. We model ecosystem productivity, evapotranspiration, and summer streamflow under a range of temperature and precipitation scenarios using RHESSys, a spatially distributed model of carbon–water interactions. We examine the direct impacts of temperature and precipitation on vegetation productivity and impacts associated with higher water-use efficiency under elevated atmospheric CO2. Results suggest that for most climate scenarios, biomass in chaparral-dominated systems is likely to increase, leading to reductions in summer streamflow. However, within the range of GCM predictions, there are some scenarios in which vegetation may decrease, leading to higher summer streamflows. Changes due to increases in fire frequency will also impact summer streamflow but these will be small relative to changes due to vegetation productivity. Results suggest that monitoring vegetation responses to a changing climate should be a focus of climate change assessment for California MTEs.     

Simulated response to inter-annual SST variations in the Gulf Stream region

Recent studies show that mid-latitude SST variations over the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension influence the atmospheric circulation. However, the impact of variations in SST in the Gulf Stream region on the atmosphere has been less studied. Understanding the atmospheric response to such variability can improve the climate predictability in the North Atlantic Sector. Here we use a relatively high resolution (～1°) Atmospheric General Circulation Model to investigate the mechanisms linking observed 5-year low-pass filtered SST variability in the Gulf Stream region and atmospheric variability, with focus on precipitation. Our results indicate that up to 70 % of local convective precipitation variability on these timescales can be explained by Gulf Stream SST variations. In this region, SST and convective precipitation are strongly correlated in both summer (r = 0.73) and winter (r = 0.55). A sensitivity experiment with a prescribed local warm SST anomaly in the Gulf Stream region confirms that local SST drives most of the precipitation variability over the Gulf Stream. Increased evaporation connected to the anomalous warm SST plays a crucial role in both seasons. In summer there is an enhanced local SLP minimum, a concentrated band of low level convergence, deep upward motion and enhanced precipitation. In winter we also get enhanced precipitation, but a direct connection to deep vertical upward motion is not found. Nearly all of the anomalous precipitation in winter is connected to passing atmospheric fronts. In summer the connection between precipitation and atmospheric fronts is weaker, but still important.     

Surface radar-derived convective rainfall associations with Midwest US land surface conditions in summer seasons 1999 and 2000

Previous research has suggested that spatial heterogeneities in soil moisture and/or vegetation cover promote the development of convective clouds. We examine the intensity of convective precipitation for the Midwest US Corn Belt in the summers of 1999 and 2000, which had contrasting synoptic circulation, atmospheric humidity, and soil moisture conditions. For days when synoptic scale atmospheric forcing is weak, we calculate a convective severity index (CSI) based on radar reflectivity composite values. Our results suggest that boundaries between soil types, and cropland and forest vegetation types in the western portion of the Corn Belt, enhance the development of convective precipitation. In the eastern part of the Corn Belt, less convection occurs, but we find a positive correlation between the intensity of convection and soil moisture conditions. Our results also demonstrate that the CSI is a simple yet effective technique for identifying where deep convection occurs relative to lighter precipitation.     

The impact of ecosystem functional type changes on the La Plata Basin climate

In this paper, the effects of land cover changes on the climate of the La Plata Basin in southern South America are investigated using the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) Model configured on a 30/10km two-way interactive nested grid. To assess the regional climate changes resulting from land surface changes, the standard land cover types are replaced by time-varying Ecosystem Functional Types (EFTs), which is a newly devised land-cover classification that characterizes the spatial and interannual variability of surface vegetation dynamics. These variations indicate that natural and anthropogenic activities have caused changes in the surface physical parameters of the basin, such as albedo and roughness length, that contributed to regional climate changes. EFTs are obtained from functional attributes of vegetation computed from properties of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to represent patches of the land surface with homogeneous energy and gas exchanges with the atmosphere. Four simulations are conducted, each experimental period ranging from September to November in two contrasting years, 1988 and 1998. The influence of an identical EFT change on the surface heat fluxes, 2-m temperature and humidity, 10-m winds, convective instabilities and large-scale moisture fluxes and precipitation are explored for 1988 (a dry year) and 1998 (a wet year). Results show that the surface and atmospheric climate has a larger response to the same EFT changes in a dry year for 2-m temperature and 10-m wind; the response is larger in a wet year for 2-m water vapor mixing ratio, convective available potential energy, vertically integrated moisture fluxes and surface precipitation. For EFTs with high productivity and a weak seasonal cycle, the nearsurface temperature during the spring of 1988 and 1998 increased by as much as 1℃ in the central and western portions of La Plata Basin. Additionally, for higher productivity EFTs, precipitation differences were generally positive in both dry and wet years, although the patterns are not uniform and exhibit certain patchiness with drier conditions.     

Response in atmospheric circulation and sources of Greenland precipitation to glacial boundary conditions

The response in northern hemisphere atmospheric circulation and the resulting changes in moisture sources for Greenland precipitation to glacial boundary conditions are studied in NCAR’s CCM3 atmospheric general circulation model fitted with a moisture tracking functionality. We employ both the CLIMAP SST reconstruction and a modification thereto with reconstructions of glacial ice sheets and land masks. The individual components of the boundary conditions are added first one at a time and, finally, together. These steps show the atmospheric circulation to respond approximately linearly to the boundary condition changes, and the full glacial change may thus be decomposed into contributions from SST and topography changes, respectively. We find that using the CLIMAP SST reconstruction leads to a shift from Atlantic toward Pacific source regions not found with the modified reconstruction having cooler tropics and less sea ice. The occurrence of such a shift depends chiefly on the SST reconstruction and not on the existence of the large northern hemisphere glacial ice sheets. The influence of these circulation changes on important factors for ice core interpretation such as precipitation seasonality, condensation temperatures and source temperatures are assessed.