MIGRAT: A COMPUTER-ASSISTED INSTRUCTIONAL PROGRAM FOR THE SIMULATION OF MIGRATION

Primary individuals and the households that they head now compose a significant proportion of US households. This paper examines the regional and intraurban distribution of primary households. Macro-scale data from the 1960 and 1970 Censuses are used to examine the evolving regional patterns of primary individuals and households. Using intraurban data for the 1970's, the paper also examines the impact of recent rapid growth in the number of primary individuals on the spatial distribution of primary households within urban areas. Inferences are drawn with respect to the macro- and micro-scale distributions of primary individuals and households and the impact of continued growth of this subpopulation on urban form and population distribution.     

Measuring short-term population mobility among indigenous Australians: options and implications

"Despite the fact that indigenous Australians are known to be frequently mobile over the short term, statistical information regarding this population movement is grossly deficient.... This paper examines various means by which short-term population movement can be quantified to yield aggregate indicators of demographic impact. First, census data are used to establish the rate and pattern of inter-regional, short-term displacement. This reveals regional urban centres as net recipients of temporary residents while most rural areas experience temporary absenteeism. Secondly, results from household surveys are reported stressing the importance of including visitors to households in the estimation of service populations. Thirdly, administrative data on occupancy in urban hostels are used to derive indicators of the duration of movement."     

AN EXPLORATORY STUDY OF OFFICE LOCATION BEHAVIOR IN GREATER SEATTLE

lntrametropolitan office location has only received limited attention in U.S. urban studies. This paper examines the particular case of Greater Seattle with reference to the relationship between public policies for office development and empirical evidence of office location change within the metropolitan area. The City of Seattle is anxious to promote the CBD as the focus of the office economy, while adjacent King County wants to promote suburban centers in which office development will be prominent. Data on the intrametropolitan movement of offices, the reasons for location choice, and the evidence of in-migration from outside the Puget Sound region have been collected. These data suggest that office location behavior in Seattle does not mirror events in other US. cities; its office economy remains highly centralized, intraurban migration has been limited, and suburban centers must rely heavily on in-situ growth of indigenous office enterprises.     

中国居民消费水平的地域差异

建国以来我国居民消费水平的地域分布一直呈非均衡状态，地域差异显著。其中省际差异呈U字型变化，东西差异由小变大，南北差异不断缩小，而城乡差异波动性大。在地域差异构成中，东西差异突出，南北差异影响最小。地区经济发展不平衡是造成我国居民消费水平地域差异的主要原因，其次是经济体制、经济布局以及区域政策的影响。为了缩小地区差距、实现共同富裕，一方面要加快建立社会主义市场经济体制，另一方面要充分发挥政府在引导要素合理流动和调控区域发展方面的作用。     

Spatial Fix and Spatial Substitutability Practices Among Canada's Largest Office Development Firms

Among agents that reflect and shape urban space, prominent property developers are powerful players. This paper examines the spatial practices of Canada's largest office development firms. These firms constantly explore new frontiers for investment, but at the same time well-established nodes are rigorously maintained and protected. Larger urban areas are preferred locations for investment; yet among them only a few cities attract the vast majority of investment. Once an investment channel is initiated and a threshold is reached, existing assets act as magnets, attracting more investment and strengthening the allure of particular places. Within a particular place (a city or a metropolitan area) the mix of properties held by a firm is likely to change over time. Core properties are considered strategic assets and therefore are retained as long-standing investments; peripheral assets have to meet corporate requirements and are thus subject to trade and replacement. Findings confirm the key position of Toronto within the Canadian urban system but also indicate that the scale of property investment does not fully correlate with urban hierarchy. On the intraurban scale, the framework of core-periphery properties helps to explain the spatial patterns of office development and the primary role of traditional nodes.     

中国省际高技能人才迁移的时空演化机制

高技能人才迁移是推进新型城镇化建设的重要议题,也是影响地区创新产出和高质量发展的关键要素。针对人才迁移数据中蕴含的零膨胀和网络自相关特性,本文将特征向量空间滤波（ESF）技术和“两阶段”Hurdle模型结合,构建空间Hurdle引力模型,结合2000—2015年中国省际高技能人才迁移面板数据,研究人才迁移的时空演化格局和驱动机制。研究结论显示：① 2000—2015年人才迁移的跨省迁移比例先升后降;人才迁移表征出集聚格局,维系了其空间分布的不均衡性;随时间推移,人才迁移格局呈现分散趋势,人才空间分布集聚性下降;人才迁移和空间分布均呈现出持续显著的网络与空间自相关性特征。② 引力因素（人口规模、空间距离）、地区经济和科技发展水平（工资、科教投入）、自然舒适度（平均温差、空气质量）、城市舒适度（医疗及教育公共服务、城市绿化）以及其他因素（社会网络、生活成本、人口密度）共同驱动了跨世纪以来中国省际人才迁移过程。③ 人才迁移可被看作一个“两阶段”过程,影响其迁移概率和迁移规模的因素呈现一定差异。④ 经济增速、科教投入、自然舒适度和基础公共服务对人才迁移的影响随时间增强,而工资和城市绿化的影响随时间减弱。本文的研究结论为地区人才治理及实现地区均衡发展提供政策参考。     

The pattern and structure of one-person households in England and Wales and France

"This paper examines the increase of one-person households during the 1980s in England and Wales and France set within the broader context of household change in Europe as a whole....One-person households vary geographically by age, with younger one-person households found especially in larger urban areas; older one-person households have a more varied distribution, although rural and traditional retirement areas have particular concentrations. Increases in numbers are a result of both compositional changes in the population (increasing numbers of divorced and never-marrieds as well as increasing numbers of elderly) and also an increasing propensity to live alone, especially among younger age groups."     

Regional population redistribution in the USSR: 1979-84

"The primary purpose of this paper is to assess very broadly the regional growth and redistribution of the total, urban and rural populations of the USSR, as well as aggregate, regional and city size patterns of urbanization for the 1979-84 period. In order to investigate the continuity or reversal of trends, comparisons with preceding intercensal periods will also be undertaken, particularly with the 1970-79 period." It is found that "regional rates of population change between 1979 and 1984 were generally lower than those of 1970-79, primarily due to a general decline in natural increase rates. In addition, regional variations in rates of population change for the 1979-84 period were similar to those of the 1970-79 period.... The USSR has apparently reversed its long-term trend of deconcentration in the sense that the population as a whole is becoming more concentrated again, but this time in a new area of concentration, Central Asia, which is now the most populous economic region."     

Calculating Intraurban Agglomeration of Economic Units with Planar and Network K-Functions: A Comparative Analysis

Abstract

According to recent research, one of the most promising strategies for intraurban job growth lies promoting localized clusters that produce goods and services which are primarily sold within a single city, metropolitan area, or urban region. However, in order to design urban policies to create or reinforce local clusters, the first challenge is to measure in a reliable way the clustering tendencies of different kinds of economic units in intraurban space. The aim is to compare the similarities and differences in results obtained from two methods designed to measure global clustering tendencies (the planar and network K-functions) in terms of characterization, scale, and intensity of intraurban localization patterns for tertiary economic units in a Latin American metropolis. It is concluded that the network K-function is a more appropriate method for measuring agglomeration patterns, scale, and intensity at the intra-urban level.     

中国省域城镇居民碳排放驱动因素分析

从消费角度出发,分别对2003和2012年中国城镇（不含港、澳、台地区）居民碳排放的特征及影响因素进行分析。结果显示,不同地区城镇居民碳排放存在明显差异,人口因素对区域分异有弱化作用。从城镇居民人均碳排放来看,不同地区消费构成、能源结构、产业结构3因素对城镇居民碳排放影响的差异总体表现为：消费结构/能源结构>产业结构。与其他部门相比,大多数地区工业部门的生产能耗、投入产出周转量和产品购买量是影响当地城镇居民碳排放的主要因素,各地区城镇居民碳排放的影响因素具有明显的区域特点。政府应在当前研究的基础上,根据当地能耗模式、产业模式和消费模式因地置宜管理城镇居民碳排放。     

Urban Redevelopment and the Forced Eviction of Lighters from the Singapore River

This paper examines the causes and impact of the "evictionr" of the lighterage industry from the Singapore River in 1983. For more than 160 years, the lighterage industry served the traditional Entrepôt trade interests of Singapore from its base along the Singapore River. In 1983, all cargo–carrying lighters operating from the river were forced to relocate to new facilities at Pasir Panjang as a direct consequence of the Singapore government's broader economic agenda to speedily industrialise and modernise the island state. State policy unequivocally linked slum clearance and city redevelopment with its economic programme. As Singapore's economy grew and diversified through the 1970s it became less reliant on the commerce of the entrepôt trade, and the lighterage industry, already struggling to compete with technological changes in sea transport, found itself left without a bargaining position and standing in the path of economic development and urban renewal. While the economic success that Singapore has enjoyed over the past several decades seems to vindicate the state's relentless drive for urban renewal, it often overshadows the impact of the state's policies on individuals. For those working in the industry, eviction led to social and economic hardship as business declined and individuals struggled to adapt to their new work environment.     

The development process and urbanisation in a newly organised state: a case study of Haryana

"This paper examines the impact of emergence of Haryana [India] as a new state in 1966 on its development and concomitant urbanisation process. The analysis is based on data for individual towns for all the post-Independence censuses of 1951 to 1981. It was found that urban growth in the state was far more rapid during the post-1966 period than that during the pre-1966 phase. The spatial picture of urban growth also changed somewhat."     

1985―2010年中国沿海城市人口密度时空变化

基于1985―2010年沿海城市人口密度数据,利用ArcGIS和空间统计的方法,分析了1985、1990、1995、2000、2005和2010年6个时间节点沿海城市人口密度的时空变化特征,并探讨了沿海城市人口密度变化的驱动因素。结果表明：1985年以来中国沿海城市人口密度整体上呈现不断增长的趋势,2010年沿海城市常住人口总数为2.64亿人,约占全国总人口的19.70%,平均人口密度在640人/km2左右。人口空间分布差异明显,集中表现为区域中心城市人口密度大,南通市以北地区大部分沿海城市的人口密度小于南通市以南的沿海城市。自然因素、经济因素、城市地位与功能、国家政策以及城市发展历史等是沿海城市人口密度差异的主要驱动因素,其中人口迁入已成为影响人口密度时空变化的最重要驱动力。为进一步促进沿海城市人口的合理分布,建议加强引导沿海地区人口有序流动,积极发展中小城镇,注重提高环境的承载力,促进人口、资源与环境的可持续发展。     

福建省城镇体系分形研究

应用分形理论对福建省城镇体系进行了规模和空间结构研究,验证了福建省城镇体系得规模分布和空间布局均符合局部的分形特征,同时得出以下结论:第一,福建省城镇体系规模分布还处于初级的首位型阶段,城镇体系规模等级发育不成熟;第二,福建省城镇体系在空间分布上存在区域、地方两个不协调的现象;第三,福建省地区城镇体系交通网络的通达性较高,城市间联系较为紧密,但也注意到区域城镇网络的均衡性还有待提高。最后,通过自然、社会及历史等原因对成因进行讨论,据此提出福建省城镇体系结构优化的建议。     

中国高学历人才的空间演化特征及驱动因素

人才是推动地区创新发展的核心动力,也是未来城市竞争的关键。基于第六次全国人口普查和2015年全国1%人口抽样调查数据,运用集聚度、基尼系数等空间统计分析以及负二项回归模型方法,对2010—2015年中国城市高学历人才的空间演化特征及驱动因素展开研究。结果发现：① 人才呈现出高度集中且不平衡的空间分布格局,但不平衡的趋势有所缓解,分布方向为“东北—西南”走向。人才分布的空间溢出效应显著,城市群是人才集聚的高地。② 经济机会是影响中国高学历人才集聚的主导力量,其中工资是核心驱动因素,地区的发展水平、产业结构同样产生显著影响。③ 控制经济机会的影响后,以教育和医疗等基础公共服务、交通可达性和城市消费设施为核心的地方品质变量在高学历人才的空间集聚过程中发挥重要作用。④ 城市群与非城市群人才驱动因素存在显著差异：经济机会是城市群和非城市群人才集聚的主要驱动力;教育、消费、交通以及自然环境等地方品质变量对城市群人才集聚的影响更为显著。本研究为城市和区域人才政策和区域发展政策的制定提供借鉴与参考。     

基于贝叶斯时空模型的建设用地扩张格局差异分析——以长三角和中原城市群为例

基于土地利用现状遥感监测数据,采用贝叶斯统计方法对长三角城市群和中原城市群城市建设用地扩张的时空特征及其影响因素进行研究,并探讨两个间差异规律。结果表明:(1)研究期内,两个城市群的建设用地均呈现快速扩张的态势,增长速度均在2000—2005年达到峰值,对应的净增长率分别为36.6%和31.1%。(2)两个城市群城市扩张空间演化过程差异显著,长三角城市群建设用地扩张表现为“点—轴—波式循环”模式,空间异质性较高,出现多个城市扩张热点区域;而中原城市群表现为“点—轴—网”模式,地区间扩张差异较小,温点扩张区域居多。(3)影响两个城市群建设用地扩张的主要因素有经济发展、产业结构、人口规模和居民收入。从影响程度大小的区域对比来看,经济规模、产业结构和居民收入对长三角城市群的影响程度高,人口规模对中原城市群的影响程度高。     

Comparing health status and access to health care in Canada’s largest metropolitan areas

Research has shown persistent inequalities in access to health care between and within sociodemographic groups and geographic areas. Yet much of what we know about geographical disparities in access comes from studies of regional and urban/rural contrasts, or from studies of intra-urban, neighborhood-level variations. We know relatively little about variations in access to primary health care across different urban areas, and whether such variations translate into differences among residents’ health. This study examines how health status and access to primary care vary across five of Canada’s largest cities, paying particular attention to populations that may be particularly vulnerable based on age and income. Across all outcomes, there was a consistently strong relationship with individual socioeconomic status. We show that city of residence is important for access to health care but not for health status. Results are discussed in terms of their relevance for urban health-care policy and delivery, and impacts on health and access to care.     

National and regional population trends in the USSR, 1979-89: preliminary results from the 1989 census

"This article investigates national, macroregional, and economic regional population trends in the USSR during the 1979-89 intercensal period based on preliminary results from the 1989 census. The national total population growth rate during 1979-89 was roughly similar to that of 1970-79. However, the urban growth and urbanization processes slowed, while the rate of rural population change increased due chiefly to reduced rural-urban migration. Regional variations in rates of total, urban, and rural population change generally resembled those of 1970-79. Central Asia continued to exhibit the most rapid overall growth, although Siberia experienced a resurgence."     

基于城乡人口变动视角的中国城镇化地域类型时空演变

城镇化是城镇和乡村人口变动共同作用的结果。本文从城乡人口变动的视角提出了城镇化地域类型的划分方法,基于历次全国人口普查数据,考察了中国城镇化地域类型的时空演变及其影响因素。研究发现中国的城镇化于1990年后进入快速阶段且当前仍在加速,但城镇化的实现路径存在较强的时空动态性：① 随着人口自然增长减缓和乡城迁移扩张,全国城镇化地域类型由城乡扩张型转变为城镇吸引型,乡村人口减少对城镇化的贡献持续增强;② 城镇吸引型是各地最主要的城镇化地域类型,但2010年以来大量地区因乡村人口加速外流而转变为乡村流失型,城乡扩张型地域的空间范围大幅收缩至西藏、上海等地,而城乡收缩型地域在东北地区的非省会城市大范围扩张;③ 经济性因素仍是当前中国城镇化的核心驱动因素,经济增长带动乡村人口外迁,工业化长期有利于城乡协调共进,而公共服务等社会性因素的作用仍然有限;④ 新型城镇化和乡村振兴的政策效应还有待发掘,西部城市群、中小城市的吸引力以及乡村地区的人口发展等问题仍需更多的研究关注。本文最后对中国城镇化的趋势性、动力机制和未来研究重点展开了讨论。     

BUSTBELT TO BOOMTOWN: REGIME SUCCESSION AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF DOWNTOWN INDIANAPOLIS

The reconstruction of the built environment in downtown Indianapolis over the past 25 years demonstrates the impact of powerful individuals constituting a potent urban regime in an archetypal middle-American city. Change began on January 1, 1970, with the establishment of a new unified city-county government that targeted creating a new image for this essentially one-party, one-economy city. The rise and demise of the governing coalition determined the trajectory of development across time, as realized in the changing utilization of central-city land. Macroeconomic national scale elements provided challenges and opportunities, but individuals acting within the contextual rules and resources of their particular locale proved decisive in determining spatial outcomes. The significance of this research lies in its reassertion of the power of agents to anticipate and adapt successfully to changing political-economic circumstances by reconfiguring the built environment. [Key words: urban regime theory, growth coalition, urban built environment.]