Design of environmental decision support system and its application to water quality management

EDSS is a comprehensive software system for water quality management in tidal river networks in general and for the Pearl River Delta in particular. Its purpose is to provide a practical tool that could assist government agencies in decision making for the efficient management of water resources in terms of both quantity and quality. By combining the capabilities of geographical information system (GIS), database management system (DBMS), model base management system (MBMS) and expert system, the aim is to improve the quality of decision making in what is becoming an increasingly complex area. This paper first outlines the basic concepts and philosophy adopted in developing EDSS, the system architecture, design features, implementation techniques and facilities provided. Thereafter, the core part of the system — the hydrodynamic and water quality models are described briefly. The final contribution in this paper describes the application of EDSS to the Pearl River Delta, which has the most complicated tidal river network patterns as well as the fastest economic development in the world. Examples are given of the real-world problems that can be addressed using the system, including cross-boundary water pollution analysis, regional drinking water take-up site selection, screening of important polluters, environmental impact assessment, and water quality zoning and planning. It is illustrated that EDSS can provide efficient and scientific analytical tools for planning and decision-making purposes in the information era.     

环境决策支持系统的设计及其在水质管理中的应用

ＥＤＳＳ（Ｅｎｖｉｒｏｎｍｅｎｔａｌ Ｄｅｃｉｓｉｏｎ Ｓｕｐｐｏｒｔ Ｓｙｓｔｅｍ）是一处适用于潮汐河网地区水环境管理和决策的软件系统,其主要功能是协助政府部门进行有效和科学的水环境管理。该系统采用地理信息系统、数据管理系统、模型库管理系统和专家系统等先进技术,将环境数据库、水动力与水质模型库、经济优化技术、环境专家以及环境法规有机地集成在一起。文中首先介绍了ＥＤＳＳ的组织方法、设计特征、实现技     

An environmental decision‐support system for the management of water pollution in a tidal river network

This paper is about the development of a decision‐support system for water‐pollution management and environmental planning. More specifically, the paper first presents the overall concept and the system architecture of a generic environmental decision‐support system (EDSS) and then develops an EDSS especially for analysing the tidal flow pattern and water quality of China's Pearl River Delta. The EDSS developed here employs the object‐oriented approach to design the environmental database and utilizes the system integration technology to develop the overall user‐friendly system that operates in the Windows environment. Furthermore, the system can be expanded to facilitate automated model selection and analysis. The EDSS should be of value for managing water quality of river networks with complicated flow patterns, such as that found in the Pearl River Delta.     

珠江三角洲地区城镇管理信息系统框架

针对珠江三角洲大部分地区目前城镇管理所采用的常规手工操作方式,其手段落后、信息加工处理速度慢且精度低、缺乏更深层次的空间分析、各城镇的相对独立和非标准性的管理模式、信息资源无法共享、难以及时更新大量的空间和非空间数据等问题进行了深入的调查研究。提出了用生态城市管理模式的全新概念和用现代地理计算机科学手段研究珠江三角洲地区小城镇管理信息这将对２１世纪现代化的城镇管理具有现实意义。     

基于随机森林模型的珠江三角洲30 m格网人口空间化

人口空间化是实现人口统计数据与其他环境资源空间数据融合分析的有效途径。本文选取夜间灯光数据、道路网数据、水域分布数据、建成区数据、数字高程模型和地形坡度数据作为影响珠江三角洲人口分布的变量因子,利用随机森林模型对珠江三角洲2010年人口数据进行了30 m格网空间化,并将模拟结果与三个公开数据集作精度对比,最后基于随机森林模型的变量因子重要性分析珠江三角洲人口空间分布的影响因素。结果表明：本文模拟整体精度达到82.32%,均优于WorldPop数据集以及中国公里网格人口数据集,接近GPW数据集,而且在人口密度中等区域模拟精度最高;通过对变量因子重要性进行度量,发现夜间灯光强度是珠江三角洲人口分布的最重要指示性指标,到水域的距离、到建成区的距离和路网密度对珠江三角洲人口分布均具有重要作用。利用随机森林模型结合多源信息能够实现高空间分辨率的人口空间化,可为精细化城市管理提供重要数据源,也可为相关政策决策制定提供支持。     

珠江三角洲区域一体化研究综合信息系统的设计与应用

在分析地理信息系统技术发展与应用现状的基础上,设计了珠江三角洲区域一体化研究综合信息系统的结构框架。根据珠江三角洲的实际情况,并在经济地理学,城市地理学,区域科学等理论的指导下,开发了针对该区域一体化研究的模型分析系统。基于元数据库的数据集成与模型管理技术,能对不同数据源,不同数据类型与时空特性的多元数据处理与分析。本综合信息系统在区域产业布局,资源窨组合,城市体系空间结构演化等方面得到应用,将为     

珠江河口“门”的地貌动力学初探

珠江河口由河网区与河口湾区构成,连接两部分的是珠江口独特的地貌单元“门”。末次海进盛期古珠江海湾可分为内海湾和外海湾,现代三角洲平原与河网均发育在古内海湾。内、外古海湾通过峡口相连,这些峡口演变为现代的“门”。本文根据实测水文资料、地形图、钻孔资料,应用PRD-LTMM长周期动力-沉积-形态模型对珠江河口的“门”6000年来地貌动力学进行探讨：(1) 现代“门”双向射流动力系统,(2) “门”的演进阶段,(3)“门”对古潮汐能量的集聚作用,(4) 珠江河口各“门”与相应的三角洲平原的同步耦合演进, (5)“门”对珠江河网形成的作用。     

Multi-object approach and its application to adaptive water management under climate change

This paper addresses issues on adaptive water management under the impact of climate change. Based on a set of comprehensive indicators of water system, a decision making approach of multi-objects is developed and applied to quantify water adaptive management for the demands of water sustainable use, water environmental protection and eco-water requirement under the climate change. For this study in China, two key indicators are proposed, namely (1) the water resources vulnerability (V) that was represented by integrated sensitivity (S) and resilience (C) of climate change impact on water resources, and (2) the sustainability of socio-economy and water environment, marked by DD, that is integrated scaler of socio-economic development (EG) based on the amount of GDP and the water environment and relative eco-system quality (LI). To find a reasonable solution for adaptive water management, a multi-objective decision making model of adaptive water management is further developed and the multi-objective model was transformed into an integrated single optimization model through developing an integrated measure function, called as VDD=DD/V. This approach has been applied to adaptive water resources planning and management for case study of China with new policy, called as the strict management of water resources based on three red line controls, i.e., the control of total water use by the total water resources allocation, the control of lower water use efficiency by the water demand management and the control of the total waste water load by water quality management in the Eastern China Monsoon Region that covers major eight big river basins including Yangtze River, Yellow River, Haihe River and Huaihe River. It is shown that the synthetic representation of water resource vulnerability and socio-economic sustainability by the integrated objective function (VDD) and integrated decision making model are workable and practicable. Adaptive management effect of the criterion compliance rate and water use efficiency are more appreciable through new water policy of the three red line controls, which can reduce 21.3% of the water resources vulnerability (V) and increase 18.4% of the sustainability of socioeconomy and water environment (DD) for the unfavorable scenario of climate change in 2030.     

Developing an exploration decision support system (EDSS): A strategy for combining information and analytics

Petroleum exploration companies enter the twenty first century facing an increasingly competitive and risky environment. Under those circumstances, there is a growing need for better systematic decision-making that explicitly embodies the firm's desired goals and resource constraints. Computer-aided decision making, or decision support systems (DSS), provide an aid for those exploration management problems that are large, complex, unstructured, and involve management mudgment. Almost every present day DSS falls into one of two general classes. Vehicle DSSs such as linear/nonlinear programming models and other optimization routines, propose and impose specific methodologies to the decision-maker. On the other hand, toolbox DSSs, such as simulation programs, statistical functions, and graphical packages, are generally flexible in enabling their users to employ a variety of approaches and tools for their decision tasks but provide little guidance on both problem representation and investigation. This paper describes the development of a hybrid DSS model that combines the advantages of both the vehicle and toolbox systems components to provide a comprehensive approach to exploration planning from geological development through the capital allocation process. The Exploration Decision Support System (EDSS) preserves the flexibility of the toolbox system while enriching the problem-solving strategies available to the firm. The central objectives for developing an EDSS framework are: (1) better decisions about resource allocations; (2) more systematic understanding of the factors affecting exploration decisions; (3) improved communication about E&P performance objectives and constraints at all levels of decision-making; and (4) an explicit vehicle for continuous improvement of the petroleum exploration firm's decision-making process. The EDSS model can guide geological and exploration managers toward a more formal evaluation of projects, provide insight into the impact of competing choice alternatives, and significantly improve the quality of exploration decisions.     

气候变化下水资源适应性管理的多目标方法应用（英文）

This paper addresses issues on adaptive water management under the impact of climate change.Based on a set of comprehensive indicators of water system,a decision making approach of multi-objects is developed and applied to quantify water adaptive management for the demands of water sustainable use,water environmental protection and eco-water requirement under the climate change.For this study in China,two key indicators are proposed,namely(1) the water resources vulnerability(V) that was represented by integrated sensitivity(S) and resilience(C) of climate change impact on water resources,and(2) the sustainability of socio-economy and water environment,marked by DD,that is integrated scaler of socio-economic development(EG) based on the amount of GDP and the water environment and relative eco-system quality(LI).To find a reasonable solution for adaptive water management,a multi-objective decision making model of adaptive water management is further developed and the multi-objective model was transformed into an integrated single optimization model through developing an integrated measure function,called as VDD=DD/V.This approach has been applied to adaptive water resources planning and management for case study of China with new policy,called as the strict management of water resources based on three red line controls,i.e.,the control of total water use by the total water resources allocation,the control of lower water use efficiency by the water demand management and the control of the total waste water load by water quality management in the Eastern China Monsoon Region that covers major eight big river basins including Yangtze River,Yellow River,Haihe River and Huaihe River.It is shown that the synthetic representation of water resource vulnerability and socio-economic sustainability by the integrated objective function(VDD) and integrated decision making model are workable and practicable.Adaptive management effect of the criterion compliance rate and water use efficiency are more appreciable through new water policy of the three red line controls,which can reduce 21.3% of the water resources vulnerability(V) and increase 18.4% of the sustainability of socioeconomy and water environment(DD) for the unfavorable scenario of climate change in 2030.     

Environmental Performance of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Companies in the Pearl River Delta Region (PRDR): a case study of Dongguan City

The environmental performance of foreign direct investment (FDI) companies in the Pearl River Delta Region (PRDR) is examined through a case study of Dongguan City. The influence of host governments, regional/international organisations and export markets is highlighted in the analysis of environmental management systems of the FDI companies. The majority of FDI companies in the region lack effective systems and measures for environmental management. The environmental governance of the host country, the environment-related legislation and policies of the main export markets, and the social responsibility of the company owners are major factors that influence the environmental performance of the FDI companies. A combination of the quality of host government decision making in relation to sustainable development and the high degree of social responsibility and environmental awareness of individual FDI companies is crucial not only to achieving better overall environmental performance but also to achieving better environmental quality in the PRDR.     

基于动态空间面板模型的中国港口竞争与合作关系研究

港口之间的竞争与合作关系是港口资源整合所要理顺和优化的关键问题,关系着港口体系的健康可持续发展。本文采用动态空间面板模型,研究了2000年以来中国港口整体及沿海和内河各区域港口群的竞争与合作关系,并探讨其影响因素。研究表明：中国港口货物吞吐量和集装箱吞吐量存在空间正相关性,且呈现逐渐增强的趋势;从货物吞吐量看,全国范围内的港口和内河港口之间不存在显著的竞争效应,沿海港口之间竞争态势显著,而三者在集装箱运输方面均为竞争关系;五大沿海港口群在货物吞吐量方面的竞争激烈程度排序为环渤海港口群>珠江三角洲港口群>长江三角洲港口群>西南沿海港口群>东南沿海港口群,内河港口群中,仅珠江水系港口群呈竞争态势;珠江三角洲港口群、东南沿海港口群、长江三角洲港口群、长江水系和珠江水系港口在集装箱运输中竞争激烈;港口供求关系、港口规模结构、港口职能结构、港口规划与管理等是影响竞争与合作关系及竞争激烈程度的重要因素。本研究有助于丰富港口地理学的理论研究,并为港口资源整合提供思路和方向。     

珠三角基塘系统研究回顾及展望

基塘系统是中国劳动人民独创的低洼地利用方式和生态循环农业模式,珠三角基塘系统在历史上曾起到重要的作用,但目前其面积萎缩、生态功能退化。为了推动珠三角传统农业文化遗产的保护、促进区域人地关系协调发展,论文结合文献计量学方法对珠三角基塘系统研究文献进行梳理和概括,发现在基(田)塘生产力、区域水陆生态农业循环模式规律、社会经济发展与传统农业文化遗产保护的关系等方面已经展开研究;但是珠三角基塘系统演变机理研究比较薄弱,区域特色的农业文化遗产保护途径探索还鲜见。建议未来加强珠三角基塘系统演变机理、系统重构技术、农业文化遗产保护价值与途径的研究,以此深化基塘系统理论及实践研究,为协同区域农业生产格局与农业生态系统耦合关系提供支撑。     

珠江三角洲海岸线旅游价值评估

从海岸线的自然属性、旅游发展要素、区位因素3个维度构建海岸线旅游价值评估模型,以珠江三角洲为案例,定量评估了海岸线旅游价值并分析其空间差异。结果表明：珠三角滨海旅游优势岸线总占比25.50%,旅游价值中等值段岸线占比40.67%,偏低和低值段岸线占比为30.52%和3.31%。整体来看,珠三角岸线旅游价值东部整体高于西部。大陆岸线旅游价值最高的集中在惠州巽寮湾、深圳大亚湾、大鹏湾和深圳湾,旅游价值较低的集中在黄茅海西部,中部珠江入海口沿岸地区岸线旅游价值中等。岛屿岸线旅游价值空间差异较大,价值最高的集中在大亚湾海域的三门岛、喜洲岛、鸡心岛、大辣甲岛和珠江口的内伶仃岛、江门的上下川岛北部;岸线旅游价值较低的集中在珠海的万山群岛和担杆岛等。     

资源环境数据库体系及其在可持续发展中的应用--以珠江三角洲为例

区域的可持续发展需要科学的规划与决策,而资源环境数据库体系,是科学管理的信息基础。以区域可持续发展为目标,综合运用空间数据库体系技术,地理信息系统技术和遥感技术,建立珠江三角洲地区基础信息空间数据库,专题信息空间数据库,图像数据库和统计数据库;以可持续发展评价指标体系反映资源,环境,社会,经济四个系统之间的相互耦合关系,建立库体系的内模式,并以城市可持续发展模型和土地利用管理与规划模型为例,给出了     

珠江三角洲都市经济区地域构成的判别与分析

随着经济全球化和城市化进程的加快, 单个城市的竞争逐渐转变为城市区域的竞争。 都市经济区是在国家战略需求的推动下应势而生的新概念, 已经广泛应用于全国国土规划和 主体功能区划。准确把握都市经济区内部的地域构成有助于进行有效地加强区域管理和空间调控。以往的相关研究主要集中于宏观分析或以区县为单元的空间分析, 从功能空间的角度对都市经济区内部地域构成的研究较少, 更缺少准确科学的划分和判读方法。为了准确把握 区域空间利用中的主要问题和潜在威胁, 规划者和政府官员需要探索判定都市经济区地域构成的新方法。文章在总结当前几种主要的地域类型判读方法优缺点的基础上, 深入探讨了运 用遥感和GIS 手段进行区域地域构成判别的思路, 并成功应用于珠江三角洲内部地域构成的 空间分析。研究发现, 当前珠江三角洲都市经济区正经历着大规模的城镇化, 大都市的发展 无序蔓延, 存在的用地粗放、结构混杂、功能有待优化等问题, 工业区、居住区等用地的空 间分布呈现较明显的向心型分布和交通导向型分布特征, 同种地域类型的集聚性分布明显增强。通过从单要素和整体特征上认识和把握珠江三角洲地域构成与空间组织特征, 可以有的放矢地进行空间管理和调控。还有助于深化区域地域构成的认识和空间结构的监测和分析, 也可作为制定土地利用政策的依据, 为从区域尺度上制定空间政策提供了新的参考依据。     

人工免疫系统与嵌入规划目标的城市模拟及应用

人工免疫系统(AIS) 具有强有力的计算能力, 可以通过免疫识别、克隆选择、免疫学 习、免疫记忆等功能来进行模式识别和自适应学习。AIS 所具有的自学习、自适应和记忆的能力非常适合于复杂地理过程的研究。而元胞自动机(CA) 是研究复杂系统非常方便和有效的工具。将人工免疫系统和元胞自动机相结合, 建立了城市演变的模拟和规划模型。该模型通过改变抗体的进化变异机制, 把规划目标嵌入到AIS 算法中, 抗体将会逐渐朝着规划目标“进化”, 从而模拟出基于不同规划情景的城市发展空间格局, 为城市和土地利用规划提供决 策支持。设计了6 种不同的城市发展方案, 利用该模型模拟了不同规划方案下珠江三角洲城市的发展情景(1988-2002 年)。并比较了不同模拟情景结果城市的紧凑性: “城市中心” 和 “城市中心-高速公路”发展模式的城市形态更为紧凑, 破碎度较低; 而“镇中心” 和“道路”发展模式形成的城市形态则比较凌乱和分散。模拟结果和分析表明: “城市中心-高速 公路”是珠江三角洲最适合的城市发展模式。     

珠江三角洲城市人居环境测评与优化研究

基于人居环境系统理论,运用层次分析法构建了珠三角城市人居环境评价指标体系。选取1997年、2000年和2002年三个时间断面对珠三角城市人居环境进行测算。评估表明,珠三角城市人居环境系统工业化中期阶段特征明显,人居环境建设开始进入软环境主导时代,但发展的协调性和稳定性明显较差,同时人居环境的改善还面临着区域产业整合带来的严峻挑战。最后,对珠三角城市人居环境提出了一些相关的优化建议。     

GIS在河流洪泛区灾害监测中应用研究

以灾前、灾中、灾后为三条主线，应用“3S”技术、卫星通信技术及防洪决策支持系统等多种高新技术建立的一个复杂和难度大的业务运行系统，及时、准确地监测和评估辽河下游地区洪灾及其损失，为决策部门提供现势、客观数据与决策辅助方案。     

珠江河口地区可持续发展评价研究

未来发展对珠江河口区的资源环境承载能力和生态服务功能提出了前所未有的要求,在此认识基础上,构建了基于资源承载力的可持续发展评价指标体系,并进行了河口区发展水平、可持续性水平、可持续发展能力及其可持续发展状态变化的定量分析,得出:① 珠江河口区总体已进入经济资源驱动阶段;② 在自然子系统、经济子系统、社会子系统中,社会子系统滞后;③ 可持续发展能力处于中等可持续发展水平。