北京市摩拜共享单车源汇时空特征分析及空间调度

共享单车是解决城市出行最后一公里的重要工具。然而,共享单车在使用过程中出现了供需时空失衡的现象,导致部分区域无车可用,而另一些区域却车满为患。这一现象不仅给用户带来不便,同时也降低了单车周转效率。解决供需失衡问题,关键在于探究共享单车供需失衡的时空分布特征。本文定义了共享单车的“源”、“汇”点,采用2017年5月10日至2017年5月16日北京市摩拜单车数据以及土地利用分类等多源数据,分析了共享单车工作日与周末,以及早、晚高峰期间强源、强汇点的分布特征,并结合土地类型信息分析了不同用地类型的单车使用模式,从而进一步提出了共享单车的空间调度模型。结果显示,在考虑不同土地利用类型的影响下,摩拜共享单车强源汇点分布模式具有明显的时空异质性：① 工作日单车使用量明显高于周末,且不同土地利用类型的源汇分布显著不同,如居住用地、商业金融用地等地净流入、流出密度更大,绿地等地区则相对较小;② 对比早晚高峰期间,同一地区的单车使用源汇模式极可能相反,如教育科研用地、商业金融用地等带有办公性质的地区会有“早汇晚源”的特征,而居住用地则是“早源晚汇”;③ 同一类土地利用在工作日与周末的早晚高峰期间,单车使用的源汇特征亦存在差异,如办公性质的地区在周末时源汇比例会明显产下降。基于上述结果,本文提出了一种局部优化的调度模型,并通过实际数据进行了检验。该模型在一定程度上可以解决车辆空间分配不均衡的问题,提高城市共享资源使用率,增加人们出行的方便程度。     

古大气CO2 浓度重建方法技术研究现状

温室气候引起的全球气候变暖越来越引起人们的关注,大气中不断上升的CO2 浓度被认为是导致气候变暖的主要因
素。地史时期大气CO2 浓度变化与温室气候可能存在类似的关系,可提供参考,因而古大气CO2 浓度重建是首要任务。总结近
年来古大气CO2 浓度重建的进展,重点介绍GEOCARB模型模拟、植物叶片气孔参数和同位素指针的方法和技术。GEOCARB
模型是反映全球古大气CO2 浓度长期变化的碳相关模型;气孔参数方法是使用气孔比例来估计古大气CO2 浓度;同位素指针包
括成壤碳酸盐、浮游植物有机质生物标记物、钙质浮游有孔虫、古苔藓植物等,其中成壤碳酸盐碳同位素方法使用最为广泛。国内
只是在叶片参数研究方面有一些进展,古大气CO2 浓度重建工作任重而道远。      

世界气象界确认全球气候呈变暖趋势

中国国家气象局新近公布的一项权威研究成果确认,在大气温室效应等因素作用下,全球气候呈现变暖趋势。 这项研究指出,过去100多年中,全球平均地面气温已升高0.3至0.6摄氏度;如果人类不能有效地控制二氧化碳、甲烷、氟里昂和一氧化碳等温室气体的排放,未来40年间,温室效应可能造成地球平均表面气温增加约2.5摄氏度。这一结论说明,未来全球将继续变暖。     

碳排放和减碳的社会经济代价研究进展与方法探究

碳排放和减碳的社会经济影响与代价评估日益受到学术界和决策者的关注,本文综合分析了全球范围内碳排放与减碳社会经济影响的重要科学问题和国内外研究现状,基于卫星最新观测到的全球CO₂非均匀分布的事实,针对温控1.5 ℃和2 ℃阈值情景,探讨了全球二氧化碳非均匀动态分布与地表温度时空关系,全球二氧化碳非均匀动态分布状况下主要国家碳排放空间评价以及温控1.5 ℃和2 ℃阈值情景下中国碳排放和减碳社会经济代价评估等问题可采取的技术模型方案,并提出了构建新气候变化经济学的理论方法与技术体系。本文构建的技术路线和研究方法拟为国家制订各项应对碳排放和减碳战略与对策、减缓气候变化并实现可持续转型、提升中国在应对气候变化领域的国际话语权等方面提供决策支持。     

气候变化的社会响应

本文从气候与社会平衡的角度,综述了气候变化对社会不同级次的影响,以及社会对气候变化的适应和改造等响应过程。     

试论河流地貌学的新进展和趋势

河流地貌学研究河流动力的侵蚀-搬运-堆积过程(源-汇系统)、河流地貌的时空演化,及其与地球内部构造活动和地球表层气候和环境之间的相互关系。介绍了河流地貌学与表层地球系统科学的关系、研究内容和发展趋势、前沿问题和研究机遇。河流侵蚀、搬运和堆积在构造-气候相互作用中起着重要的媒介作用,是地球内部和外部相互作用的重要纽带。随着高精度数字地形模型定量分析、地表侵蚀速率的定量测定、沉积物测年以及地貌演化数值模拟等新技术和新方法的应用,促进了不同时间和空间尺度流域地形、水系发育、河流地貌动力过程、河流地貌空间分布特征及其对构造、气候和人类活动等的响应和反馈的研究。未来除了更深入地理解流域尺度物质和形态的变化规律和机制外,加强河流地貌过程的定量表达,将流域地貌研究与表层地球系统的热点科学问题相联系,进一步开展学科交叉,服务于国家战略,才能提高河流地貌学、乃至地貌学科的竞争力。     

当代气候的变化趋势

本文论述了近百年来全球地面平均温度的变化趋势,分析了全球气候变化的主要原因,尤其是CO_2及其他痕量气体对气候的影响,指出在今后几十年和21世纪,世界气候可能会在不断波动的情况下趋于变暖,并论述了这种增暖可能造成的环境后果。     

泰山地区第四纪冰川探讨

简述了泰山地区的地质背景概况,对比分析了国内外学者的研究成果、理论及分歧原因,实地考察了泰山地区角峰、刃脊等冰川地貌,并取样品进行热释光年龄分析显示其年代为(30.54±2.59)kaB.P.,相当于末次冰期主冰期中的Paudorf-Stillfried间冰阶时段。并从地貌特征与遥感数字2个方面分析研究,发现了一些冰川遗迹的信息,为泰山地区第四纪冰川研究提供了一定的佐证。     

地球信息科学学报“全球卫星气候遥感数据”专辑征稿

<正>全球气候变化已成为当今全球环境外交和谈判的热点问题,也对人类生活的方方面面产生影响。卫星可以对地球系统进行连续观测,并以观测资料提取有关大气、海洋和陆地等气候参数,为气候及其变化预测提供基本观测依据。从卫星数据提取出气候数据集已成为气候学研究的主要数据源。本刊特此围绕"全球卫星气     

气候与建筑

气候学,作为大气科学的一个分支,是研究气候形成及气候特征在空间分布和时间演变的学科,也是气象学与自然地理学间的边缘学科。气候学在工农业生产和国防建设中有广泛的应用,和人们的日常生活也密切相关。随着现代社会的发展,气候因素在各相关学科中越来越受到人们的重视,因而,气候学各分支如农业气候学、林业气候学、工业气候学、航海气候学、航空气候学、建筑气候学、医疗气候学、体育气候学、环境污染气候学等交叉边缘学科也应运而生。从本期起,我们将陆续介绍一些应用气候学的研究成果和学术动态,希望能对广大读者起到开拓视野,提高兴趣,加深认识的作用。     

Influence of climate on soil organic carbon in Chinese paddy soils

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is a major component of the global carbon cycle and has a potentially large impact on the greenhouse effect. Paddy soils are important agricultural soils worldwide, especially in Asia. Thus, a better understanding of the relationship between SOC of paddy soils and climate variables is crucial to a robust understanding of the potential effect of climate change on the global carbon cycle. A soil profile data set (n = 1490) from the Second National Soil Survey of China conducted from 1979 to 1994 was used to explore the relationships of SOC density with mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP) in six soil regions and eight paddy soil subgroups. Results showed that SOC density of paddy soils was negatively correlated with MAT and positively correlated with MAP (P < 0.01). The relationships of SOC density with MAT and MAP were weak and varied among the six soil regions and eight paddy soil subgroups. A preliminary assessment of the response of SOC in Chinese paddy soils to climate indicated that climate could lead to a 13% SOC loss from paddy soils. Compared to other soil regions, paddy soils in Northern China will potentially more sensitive to climate change over the next several decades. Paddy soils in Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basin could be a potential carbon sink. Reducing the climate impact on paddy soil SOC will mitigate the positive feedback loop between SOC release and global climate change.     

中国LULUCF碳核算与决策支持系统设计与开发

为了服务于我国气候公约谈判和陆地生态系统碳循环管理,对我国已建立的观测、数据、模型和方法进行有效集成,实现对全国陆地生态系统碳平衡、LULUCF活动碳汇效应,以及各种履约对策综合影响的动态评估,基于IPCC理念和方法,以.NET和ArcG IS为平台,设计开发了中国LULUCF碳核算与决策支持系统。本文首先介绍了系统原型设计和基本结构,然后,详细叙述中国LULUCF碳核算与决策支持系统的11个主要模块的算法及功能实现,系统数据集成和管理方式,系统决策实现和对比分析。该系统采用C#语言进行开发,采用五层次结构模式,运用关系型数据库存储空间数据,实现了空间数据和属性数据一体化的无缝管理。该系统功能齐备并且具有扩展性,可以接受不同的核定方案,进行多途径、多方案、多情景的比对,能为我国第二次全国温室气体清单编制和LULUCF活动碳汇效应计量提供可靠、高效的方法,为国家参与气候公约谈判和履约提供所需要的基础数据和科学依据。     

岩溶碳循环及碳汇效应研究与展望

碳酸盐岩风化是全球碳循环的重要组成部分, 具有大气与土壤CO₂汇效应, 受生态系统因子驱动与全球变化影响, 岩溶地区碳汇具有地表和地下双碳汇特征。简要介绍岩溶碳循环与全球变化关系, 论述岩溶碳汇的相关科学问题和主要进展, 分析岩溶增汇潜力与土地利用变化, 进一步提出基于岩溶关键带理念的碳酸盐岩风化过程概念模型。碳酸盐岩风化产生的碳汇可能是全球碳循环"遗漏碳汇"的贡献者, 同时具有缓解土壤CO₂向大气释放的作用, 进而成为全球碳循环模型中"土地利用变化项"(E_LUC)的重要调节者(减源效应)。碳酸盐岩风化过程能快速响应短时间尺度变化环境因子, 是岩溶关键带中连接生物、水文与地球化学过程的核心驱动机制。岩溶碳循环可理解为是土壤-生态系统碳循环的延伸或横向组成部分, 共同组成岩溶地区完整的陆地浅表层碳循环系统。碳酸盐岩风化对大气CO₂浓度上升的负反馈效应, 石漠化治理与生态修复工程的持续推进, 蕴藏着巨大的岩溶固碳增汇潜力。应加强土壤CO₂季节及其区域变化监测与研究, 构建基于土壤CO₂与流域水化学指标相关性的反向模型, 为估算区域碳汇本底、评估年际碳汇增量与潜力提供更加清晰且有效的岩溶增汇方案与途径。      

区域碳收支能力估算的面向对象遥感分类方法

全球气候变暖问题是人类面临的最艰巨的挑战之一,通过先进的面向对象分类方法可以提高碳排放与碳汇能力的研究水平,对于控制区域气候变化具有推动作用。本文利用面向对象分类方法,以广西百色市右江区为研究区域,选取Landsat 8 OLI和Google Earth影像数据提取区域地物信息,并针对研究区地势复杂的特点,采用设置多种尺度参数的方法,选取最优尺度进行影像分割。同时,引入隶属度函数法、最邻近分类法和CART决策树分类器3种方法,基于影像光谱差异、几何形状、对象纹理等特征,逐层逐级地实施面向对象分类,随后加以针对性的精度评价分析并检验分类结果。通过总结分析前人的地物碳系数转换关系并结合高精度面向对象分类结果,构建了基于土地覆被类型的碳收支能力估算模型,并根据已有的基于CASA模型的碳收支能力估算方法加以精度校验,最终估算出右江区碳收支能力为-399.64万t。此外,本文结合右江区行政区划、人口分布、DEM等相关数据对区域碳收支能力进行了专题性剖析。结果表明,面向对象分类方法是研究小区域碳收支能力的有效途径,在区域碳循环评估中具有更好的准确性和预见性,有效促进碳收支平衡研究领域的发展。     

Developing China’s National Emission Trading Scheme: Experiences from Existing Global Schemes and China’s Pilot Programs

Market-based emission trading schemes (ETSs) are widely used in the developed world to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions which are perceived as the source of global climate change. China, as the largest GHG emitter in the world, is committed to introducing an ETS to reduce emissions. Here we reviewed existing ETSs and sustainable energy policies worldwide as well as China’s pilot programs. These studies were conducted in order to propose recommendations for national initiatives and strategies to be implemented in China in relation to climate change adaptation and mitigation. It has been shown that setting emission caps in the context of a national emission intensity target is difficult. However, implementing reliable systems for measurement, reporting, and verification of emissions are essential. A two-level management system (by central and provincial governments) for carbon trading is beneficial to ensure uniform standards and compliance while maintaining flexibility. Persistent political support from, and effective coordination of, policies by the government are crucial. In addition, strengthening of institutional innovation, and the establishment of a national GHG emissions information system, are of equal importance. This vital information could provide a great opportunity for China to re-define its economic growth and take global leadership in combatting climate change.     

森林碳蓄积量估算方法及其应用分析

近些年来,森林锐减、土地退化、环境污染、生物多样性丧失,特别是人类活动产生的C0₂浓度急剧上升和由此导致的温室效应等是目前人类面临最严峻的全球环境变化问题,所以全球碳循环问题日益成为全球变化与地球科学研究领域的前沿与热点问题,其中陆地生态系统碳循环又是全球碳循环中最复杂、受人类活动影响最大的部分。而森林生物量占整个陆地生态系统生物量的90%,因此,为了正确评估森林在全球碳平衡中的作用,了解森林生态系统在碳循环中的作用,森林的碳动态研究正日益成为人们关注的重点。本文总结了估算森林固碳量的几种方法--样地清查法、模型模拟法和遥感估算法,分析了它们的特点及应用等有关问题。     

Simulating net carbon budget of forest ecosystems and its response to climate change in northeastern China using improved FORCCHN

As dominant biomes,forests play an important and indispensable role in adjusting the global carbon balance under climate change.Therefore,there are scientific and political implications in investigating the carbon budget of forest ecosystems and its response to climate change.Here we synthesized the most recent research progresses on the carbon cycle in terrestrial ecosystems,and applied an individual-based forest ecosystem carbon budget model for China(FORCCHN) to simulate the dynamics of the carbon fluxes of forest ecosystems in the northeastern China.The FORCCHN model was further improved and applied through adding variables and modules of precipitation(rainfall and snowfall) interception by tree crown,understory plants and litter.The results showed that the optimized FORCCHN model had a good performance in simulating the carbon budget of forest ecosystems in the northeastern China.From 1981 to 2002,the forests played a positive role in absorbing carbon dioxide.However,the capability of forest carbon sequestration had been gradually declining during the the same period.As for the average spatial distri-bution of net carbon budget,a majority of the regions were carbon sinks.Several scattered areas in the Heilongjiang Province and the Liaoning Province were identified as carbon sources.The net carbon budget was apparently more sensitive to an increase of air temperature than change of precipitation.     

Identification and categorization of climate change risks

The scientific evidence that climate is changing due to greenhouse gas emission is now incontestable, which may put many social, biological, and geophysical systems in the world at risk. In this paper, we first identified main risks induced from or aggravated by climate change. Then we categorized them applying a new risk categorization system brought forward by Renn in a framework of International Risk Governance Council. We proposed that ＂uncertainty＂ could be treated as the classification criteria. Based on this, we established a quantitative method with fuzzy set theory, in which ＂confidence＂ and ＂likelihood＂, the main quantitative terms for expressing uncertainties in IPCC, were used as the feature parameters to construct the fuzzy membership functions of four risk types. According to the maximum principle, most climate change risks identified were classified into the appropriate risk types. In the mean time, given that not all the quantitative terms are available, a qualitative approach was also adopted as a complementary classification method. Finally, we get the preliminary results of climate change risk categorization, which might iay the foundation for the future integrated risk management of climate change.     

成都地基的GPS水汽监测系统建设与应用

 水汽尽管在大气中的含量很少, 但是其在大气中的变化却十分剧烈。其空间分布极不均匀,时间变化也极其迅速。它不仅是天气、气候变化的主要驱动力,也是灾害性天气形成和演变中的重要因子。鉴于水汽信息在数值模式、气候监测、人工影响天气、空中水资源开发等一系列业务领域中的重要性,建立局地或者区域的GPS监测系统已成为目前迫切需要解决的问题。GPS水汽监测系统由数据服务器、解算服务器及应用服务器3部分组成。首先,其通过数据服务器接收来自GPS卫星所发射的信号,生成相应解算软件所能识别的RENEX格式文件,以及获取自动气象站所测得的温、压、湿等相关气象数据,并将得到的数据保存并传送出去;然后,编写相关解算程序使得解算服务器能定时解算大气延迟量,进而反演出可降水量PWV;最后,利用应用服务器完成与气象应用相关产品的生成和服务任务,从而实现该系统的一体化功能。该系统能定制半小时 一次的解算任务,能较准确反映该时段该区域水汽快速变化的特性。建设该系统的最终目的是希望它能填补GPS反演水汽技术在四川乃至西南地区应用的空白,增强气象部门对中小尺度灾害性天气的预报监测能力,并促进许多与之相关的气象业务化工作的开展。     

Carbon dynamics in woody biomass of forest ecosystem in China with forest management practices under future climate change and rising CO2 concentration

It is critical to study how different forest management practices affect forest carbon sequestration under global climate change regime. Previous researches focused on the stand-level forest carbon sequestration with rare investigation of forest carbon stocks influ- enced by forest management practices and climate change at regional scale. In this study, a general integrative approach was used to simulate spatial and temporal variations of woody biomass and harvested biomass of forest in China during the 21st century under dif- ferent scenarios of climate and CO2 concentration changes and management tasks by coupling Integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon budget （InTEC） model with Global Forest Model （G4M）. The results showed that forest management practices have more predominant effects on forest stem stocking biomass than climate and CO2 concentration change. Meanwhile, the concurrent future changes in cli- mate and CO2 concentration will enhance the amounts of stem stocking biomass in forests of China by 12%-23% during 2001-2100 relative to that with climate change only. The task for maximizing stem stocking biomass will dramatically enhance the stem stocking biomass from 2001~100, while the task for maximum average increment will result in an increment of stem stocking biomass before 2050 then decline. The difference of woody biomass responding to forest management tasks was owing to the current age structure of forests in China. Meanwhile, the sensitivity of long-term woody biomass to management practices for different forest types （coniferous forest, mixed forest and deciduous forest） under changing climate and CO2 concentration was also analyzed. In addition, longer rotation length under future climate change and rising CO2 concentration scenario will dramatically increase the woody biomass of China during 2001~100. Therefore, our estimation indicated that taking the role of forest management in the carbon cycle into the consideration at regional or national level is very important to project the forest carbon sequestration under future climate change and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration.