热带太平洋第二类El Nio事件及其对中国气候的影响

基于热带太平洋次表层海温资料,分析了热带太平洋第二类El Nio事件海温异常的分布特征及其形成机制,讨论了与经典El Nio事件、El Nio Modoki、WP(西太平洋暖池)及CT(冷舌)El Nio事件之间的关系,揭示了第二类El Nio事件对中国降水的影响,得到以下结论。(1)第二类El Nio事件表征为热带太平洋次表层海温异常第三模态,占总方差贡献的4.7%。在海洋表面层,第二类El Nio事件暖期赤道东太平洋为沿赤道西伸的冷舌,热带中西太平洋为环绕冷舌的马蹄型大范围暖区。该型具11a和30~40a年代际振荡及3~4a年际变率,峰值多出现在春季。第二类El Nio事件是热带太平洋异常海面风应力场和赤道两侧的风应力旋度共同作用的结果,在赤道东印度洋-中西太平洋与赤道东太平洋-南美洲上空出现以反号垂直运动为特征的异常Walker环流。(2)El Nio Modoki与第二类El Nio事件有密切关系,它实质上是第二类El Nio事件次表层海温与近海面大气相互作用的结果,捕捉了第二类El Nio事件的主要信息。(3)第二类El Nio事件对中国春季及夏初降水有一定影响。在事件暖期,东海地区存在一个显著的异常反气旋性环流,其南侧的中国南方地区盛行异常东北气流,水汽来源减少,导致该地区少雨,其西侧的异常偏南气流北上直达华北地区,异常多水汽向北输送,并与北方的偏北流场相遇,导致该地区降水偏多。在第二类El Nio事件冷期相反。本文结果还指出,WP与CT El Nio事件是由经典El Nio事件第一模态与El Nio Modoki事件组合而成,它们不是独立的El Nio类型。此外,还讨论了夏半年El Nio事件对大气环流影响的物理过程。     

The influence of ENSO on sea surface temperature variations in the China seas

Positive SST anomalies usually appear in remote ocean such as the China seas during an ENSO event.By analyzing the monthly data of HadISST from 1950 to 2007,it shows that the interannual component of SST anomalies peak approximately 10 months after SST anomalies peak in the eastern equatorial Pacific.As the ENSO event progresses,the positive SST anomalies spread throughout the China seas and eastward along the Kuroshio extension.Atmospheric reanalysis data demonstrate that changes in the net surface heat flux entering into the China seas are responsible for the SST variability.During El Ni o,the western north Pacific anticyclone is generated,with anomalous southwester lies prevailing along the East Asian coast.This anticyclone reduces the mean surface wind speed which decreases the surface heat flux and then increases the SST.The delays between the developing of this anticyclone and the south Indian Ocean anticyclone with approximately 3–6 months cause the 2–3 months lag of the surface heat flux between the China seas and the Indian Ocean.The northwestern Pacific anticyclone is the key process bridging the warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific and that in the China seas.     

2022年夏季中国高温的环流异常特征

基于美国国家海洋和大气管理局(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,NOAA)全球范围扩展重建海面温度资料第5版本(Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature version 5,ERSSTv5),以及美国国家环境预报中心和国家大气研究中心NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction)/NCAR(National Center for Atmospheric Research)逐月全球再分析资料,采用相关、回归、合成及物理量诊断等方法,对2022年夏季中国大范围高温相关环流异常的可能成因进行了分析。结果表明:(1)2022年夏季南亚高压偏强并分别向东、西方向扩展,西太平洋副热带高压(以下简称“副高”)异常偏强西伸。2022夏季为拉尼娜(La Niña)年,但热带大西洋垂直上升环流相对西太平洋更强,且热带印度洋到西太平洋热带垂直上升环流异常也偏强。(2)2022年热带大西洋、印度洋到西太平洋上空垂直环流异常和La Niña共同作用,使得夏季南亚高压和西太平洋副高极端异常。La Niña和印度洋到西太平洋垂直环流异常有利于南亚高压和西太平洋副高的偏强西伸;热带大西洋环流异常则既有利于南亚高压的加强及东扩,也有利于西太平洋副高偏强西伸。(3)印度洋到西太平洋垂直环流主要通过局地经向哈得来(Hadley)环流影响青藏高原到中国东部的环流异常,表现为青藏高原到中国东部中低层为显著的辐散异常;热带大西洋则通过引起纬向风异常(急流异常),激发遥相关波列并向下游传播,进而影响青藏高原到中国东部地区的环流异常。     

热带太平洋海温异常对北极海冰的可能影响

本文利用1950-2015年间Hadley环流中心海冰和海温资料及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,研究了热带太平洋海温异常对北极海冰的可能影响,并从大气环流和净表面热通量两个角度探讨了可能的物理机制。结果表明,在ENSO事件发展年的夏、秋季节,EP型与CP型El Niño事件与北极海冰异常的联系无明显信号。而La Niña事件期间北极海冰出现显著异常,并且EP型与CP型La Niña之间存在明显差异。EP型La Niña发生时,北极地区巴伦支海、喀拉海关键区海冰异常减少,CP型La Niña事件则对应着东西伯利亚海、楚科奇海地区海冰异常增加。在EP型La Niña发展年的夏、秋季节,热带太平洋海温异常通过遥相关波列,使得巴伦支海、喀拉海海平面气压为负异常并与中纬度气压正异常共同构成类似AO正位相的结构,形成的风场异常有利于北大西洋暖水的输入,同时造成暖平流,偏高的水汽含量进一步加强了净表面热通量收入,使得巴伦支海、喀拉海海冰异常减少。而在CP型La Niña发展年的夏季,东西伯利亚海、楚科奇海关键区受其东侧气旋式环流的影响,以异常北风分量占主导,将海冰从极点附近由北向南输送到关键区,海冰异常增加,而净表面热通量的作用较小。     

Manifestation of the Arctic Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the tropical stratosphere

Characteristics of the Arctic Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation effects manifested on interannual scales in the equatorial stratosphere are determined. Wavelet analysis of local phase shifts, coherence, and correlation is used to obtain correlation portraits of the largest factors of climate variability against the background of coherent variations in the equatorial stratospheric wind speed at the 50- and 15-hPa pressure levels. It is shown that the Arctic Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation signals may reach the tropical stratosphere. The signals are easily identified in a wide range of scales, including quasi-biennial, 3-to 5-year, and 10-to 11-year periods. The results obtained reflect a coherent pattern of the manifestation of these signals at the selected stratospheric levels. It is found that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation effect at periods close to 10–11 years reaches the stratospheric level rather rapidly, in the same or next month, while the effects of the Arctic Oscillation index are delayed by nine months. The estimates obtained show that a phase shift of almost 180° in the Arctic Oscillation index relative to the equatorial stratospheric wind occurred in almost all of the range of interannual periods in 1978 and 1992. For the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, an increase in local correlations on a scale of 3-to 5-year variations was observed in 1980–1990, a 180° phase shift occurred in 1992, and the correlation with stratospheric wind increased in 1992–2004. The estimates obtained are indicative of a change in the atmospheric circulation pattern that took place in the Northern Hemisphere in 1978–1991.     

Quasi-biennial variations in ozone and meteorological parameters over western Europe from ozonesonde data

Quasi-biennial variations in vertical profiles of ozone, temperature, air pressure, and zonal and meridional wind velocities are analyzed from ozonesonde data obtained at the western European stations of Lindenberg, Hohenpeissenberg, and Payerne. The effect of quasi-biennial variations manifests itself variously in different variables and is nonuniform in altitude. The period of quasi-biennial variations is not constant, and the values of the mean period group mainly around 2 and 2.5 years. As in the North American region, the effects of quasi-biennial variations in different parameters of the stratosphere and troposphere over western Europe are due to a combination of the effects of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the equatorial stratosphere, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The observed 2.5-year variations in stratospheric ozone are related to the equatorial QBO to a larger extent in comparison with variations in other variables. It seems likely that a determining influence on variations in stratospheric wind and temperature is exerted by the ENSO. Variations in tropospheric and stratospheric parameters with a mean period of about 2 years are due to the ENSO and NAO effects.     

厄尔尼诺和台风共同影响下的7月份黄、东海海温变化

基于历史海温数据和台风路径数据,研究了厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜（El Niño/La Niña）背景下7月份中国近海海温变化特征。结果表明:7月黄、东海海温异常与El Niño/La Niña有显著相关关系,OISST和GODAS海温数据与Niño3指数同步相关系数分别为-0.32和-0.45。El Niño年7月,黄、东海海表温度异常低于-0.5℃的概率超过60%;La Niña年7月,黄海海温异常高于0.5℃的概率约有60%;正常年7月,海温异常的空间分布与El Niño年相反,但量值偏低。El Niño年7月,中国近海及邻近区域大气异常能够给局地带来更多降水;同时,受El Niño背景场的影响,入侵黄、东海的台风强度更强、影响时间更长。大尺度的降水和台风活动的影响是导致黄、东海海温异常降低的重要原因。因此,分析和预测7月份中国近海海温异常,在充分考虑El Niño/La Niña背景场的基础上,需要结合局地的大尺度降水和台风的影响同时分析,这为特定背景下结合不同时间尺度上的因素共同分析中国近海海温变化提供了一种思路。     

全球海洋环流模式中上层海洋对表面强迫的响应和调整Ⅰ.年际变率

利用一个较高分辨率的全球海洋环流模式在COADS 1945～1993年逐月平均资料的强迫下对海温和环流场进行了模拟试验,研究了全球热带海洋(主要是热带太平洋)海温和环流场的年际变化特征及模式ENSO冷暖事件演变的控制机理.结果表明,模式成功地再现了和观测一致的海温和环流的年际变化以及ENSO演变特征.其中热带印度洋年际SST变率的主要模态表现为与ENSO相联系的海盆尺度的一致性增暖或变冷现象,次级模态为热带印度洋偶极子模态;热带大西洋的SST年际变率表现为类ENSO的年际振荡现象.在热带太平洋,SST年际变化主要表现为ENSO型,环流的年际变率表现为与ENSO相对应的热带海洋质量循环圈的年际异常.对应于暖(冷)事件,前期赤道海洋垂直环流圈显示出减弱(增强)的特征.其中南赤道流异常的位相较Nino3区海温总体要超前5个月左右的时间;赤道上翻流异常的位相在表层要超前4个月,并随时间由上至下扩展;赤道潜流的异常则显示出东传特征,其中最早的较为显著的异常发生ENSO成熟前3个月180°附近.在模式ENSO冷暖事件的演变过程中,次表层海温异常沿赤道的东传起了关键作用,模式的ENSO模态主要表现为"时滞振子"模态.     

The Indian Ocean’s asymmetric effect on the coupling of the Northwest Pacific SST and anticyclone anomalies during its spring–summer transition after El Niño

By comparing different climatologies in El Niño decaying summer with regard to the presence of Indian Ocean Basin (IOB) warming, we studied the effect of IOB warming on the Northwest Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and the coupling process with the surface wind. Zonal asymmetric coupling feedback in the west and east of the Northwest Pacific were caused by the asymmetric spring–summer transition of the background tropical atmospheric circulation. Although the westward wind anomaly caused by the remote effect of IOB warming is found in the whole Northwest Pacific, reversal of the mean background surface winds in the western part leads to negative wind-evaporation SST (WES), whereas sustained trade winds lead to positive WES in the eastern part. The east–west SST gradient resulting from this zonal asymmetric evolution of SST sets off more positive feedback that strengthens the local anticyclone easterly anomalies.     

Response of the atmospheric circulation in non-tropical regions of the Northern Hemisphere to processes taking place in the tropical region

The paper concentrates on the response of the atmospheric circulation non-tropical regions of the Northern Hemisphere to considerable sea surface temperature anomalies regularly occurring in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, related to the El Niño event. It has been established that during El Niño, zonal western circulation and meridional southern circulation tend to decay (being ?2.6% and ?5.4% respectively), while meridional northern circulation intensifies (+8.0%). The paper examines regional peculiarities of the non-tropical atmospheric response to the processes taking in the tropics. It is shown that atmospheric circulation reconstruction is most essential in the Siberian (10.4%) and Pacific (10.2%) sections and is minimal (4.3%) in the Atlantic region. These peculiarities of the regional atmospheric circulation reconstruction may be taken into account to predict short-term climatic variations in the Northern Hemisphere.     

Analysis of the influence that climatic variability has on the formation of the total-ozone-content field at extratropical latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere

Having applied the method of discriminant analysis to the TOMS data of satellite sounding of the total ozone content (TOC) in the March months of 1979–2008, the authors could make a new estimate of the TOC field variability in the Northern Hemisphere and interlongitudinal regularities of its changes under the action of climatic variability. The effects of temperature variations in the polar stratosphere, El Niño, and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) have proven comparable and reach 80 DU in some regions. The influence of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) reaches 40 DU. The regions of TOC variations and their location and dimensions change depending on the phases of QBO, AO, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Three regions of increased TOC—over Europe, Eastern Siberia, and the Pacific Ocean—are formed in years with a warm stratosphere. A compensating TOC decrease takes place in the tropics and over Greenland. In the years of El Niño and the easterly QBO phase, the TOC increases over Europe and drops over the central Pacific, as well as to the south from 45° N. The AO controls the ozone growth over most of Eurasia at temperate latitudes and its weak drop over the Atlantic. It was impossible to obtain such quantitative estimates with the use of methods based on an independent analysis of the TOC series at individual points of the coordinate grid. Testing with the Monte Carlo method confirmed that the results obtained are significant with a probability of 95–99.9%.     

西太平洋副热带高压变化与赤道太平洋海温场的联系

通过对西太平洋副热带高压变化的多年统计分析,发现其具有明显的年际和年代际变化特征,副高面积和强度均存在3~4 a和11~14 a显著周期,副高西伸脊点存在3~5 a和准13 a显著周期。副高面积和强度变化基本一致,与赤道中东太平洋海表温度（SST）存在显著的正相关关系,西伸脊点与中东太平洋海表温度变化则存在负的相关关系。赤道太平洋不同经度的SST与副高变化存在明显的差异,赤道中太平洋SST异常与副高变化的关系最为密切,东太平洋相对偏弱,而西太平洋呈现相反的相关关系。由此可以认为,赤道中太平洋异常SST变化是影响副高变化的关键区域。根据它们之间存在的密切关系,通过回归分析,建立了它们二者之间的回归方程,对2013年春夏季副高的强度和西伸脊点位置变化进行了预测,为2013年我国汛期降水预测提供一定的参考。     

热带太平洋与热带大西洋海表温度主模态的相互作用

根据英国Hadley气候中心的海表温度资料和美国NCEP/NCAR中心的大气资料,研究了热带太平洋与热带大西洋海表温度主模态的相互作用。热带太平洋的ENSO可以导致大西洋Nino模态或经向偶极子模态,这主要是通过热带海洋-大气相互作用,或大气的太平洋-北美遥相关过程实现的。大西洋Nino模态的暖(冷)位相会导致赤道中东太平洋的海表温度降低(升高)。这可能是通过两种途径完成的:一种可能是大西洋Nino使印度洋增暖(变冷),进而引起赤道中太平洋的东(西)风异常,通过海洋-大气相互作用正反馈机制能发展成为La Nina(El Nino),使赤道东太平洋海温降低(升高);另一种可能是大西洋Nino直接可以导致太平洋Walker环流增强(减弱),从而使赤道东太平洋海温降低(升高)。     

西风爆发、次表层暖水东移与厄尔尼诺现象

利用最近20 a的大气海洋资料,分析了厄尔尼诺事件与赤道太平洋西风异常以及赤道太平洋次表层海温之间的关系.结果表明,赤道西太平洋(5°S～5°N,120°～160°E)和赤道中东太平洋(5°S～5°N,160°E～160°W)西风异常都存在着与厄尔尼诺周期一致的年际变化,但前者还包含有显著的2～3个月季节内振荡.赤道西太平洋次表层冷暖水东移也呈现年和年际时间尺度的振荡周期.在厄尔尼诺发生前,赤道西太平洋次表层海水出现持续性增暖,赤道西太平洋西风异常频率加快,强度增强.随后赤道中太平洋(160°E～160°W)出现持续性(3个月以上)强西风异常(即西风爆发),并进一步向东扩展,同时次表层暖水沿着赤道波导东移到赤道东太平洋混合层,导致赤道东太平洋海表大面积异常增暖,形成一次厄尔尼诺现象.最后,模式模拟了1980～1984年赤道太平洋海温的变化,进一步证实了赤道纬向西风异常对暖水东移起着重要的作用.     

Spatial classification of La Niña events

Thirty La Niña events have been selected from monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) data of the Hadley Centre Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST) and Centennial Observation-Based Estimates (COBE SST2) datasets from 1870 to 2013 based on a criterion of –0.5°С for a cold anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region (5° N–5° S, 170°–120° W) and its minimum duration of 5 months. The selected events are classified by hierarchical clustering analysis according to two characteristics: geographic coordinates and SST anomalies during the mature phase of La Niña. The objective classification method identifies two types of La Niña differing by the evolution of negative SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific and by the Southern Oscillation Index.     

ENSO indices from sea surface salinity observed by Aquarius and Argo

Analysis of the first 26 months of data from the Aquarius satellite confirms the existence of a sharp sea surface salinity (SSS) front along the equator in the western equatorial Pacific. Following several earlier studies, we use the longitudinal location of the 34.8-psu isohaline as an index, termed Niño-S34.8, to measure the zonal displacement of the SSS front and consequently the eastern edge of the western Pacific warm pool. The on-going collection of the Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanography (ARGO) program data shows high correlations between Niño-S34.8 and the existing indices of El Niño, suggesting its potential important role in ENSO evolution. Further analysis of the ARGO data reveals that SSS variability in the southeastern tropical Pacific is crucial to identify the type of El Niño. A new SSS index, termed the southeastern Pacific SSS index (SEPSI), is defined based on the SSS variability in the region (0°–10°S, 150°–90°W). The SEPSI is highly correlated with the El Niño Modoki index, as well as the Trans-Niño index, introduced by previous studies. It has large positive anomalies during central Pacific El Niño or El Niño Modoki events, as a result of enhanced zonal sea surface temperature gradients between the central and eastern tropical Pacific, and can be used to characterize the type of El Niño. The processes that possibly control these SSS indices are also discussed.     

Impact of quasi-decadal variability in the tropical Pacific on ENSO modulations

The impact of quasi-decadal (QD: 8 to 18 years) variability in the tropical Pacific on ENSO events is investigated. It is found that there is a significant difference in the behavior of ENSO events between the phases of positive and negative anomalies of the QD Niño-3.4 index. During the period of negative QD-scale Niño-3.4 index, ENSO events, especially La Niña events, occur more frequently, and larger amplitudes of thermal anomalies related to El Niño events appear over the central to eastern equatorial Pacific. Furthermore, propagations of upper ocean heat content anomaly and a phase relationship between upper ocean heat content and Niño-3 index in the equatorial Pacific, which have been pointed out by previous studies, are clearly detected during the period of negative QD Niño-3.4 index.     

A possible role for unstable coupled waves affected by resonance between Kelvin waves and seasonal warming in the development of the strong 1997–1998 El Niño

Time-varying air–sea coupled processes in the central to eastern equatorial Pacific associated with strong El Niño development during the 1997–1998 period are examined using a newly developed reanalysis dataset obtained from four-dimensional variational ocean–atmosphere coupled data assimilation experiments. The time series of this data field exhibits realistic features of El Niño evolution. Our analysis indicates that resonance between eastward-propagating oceanic downwelling Kelvin waves and the seasonal rise of sea-surface temperature (SST) in the central to eastern equatorial Pacific generates relatively persistent high SST conditions accompanied by a deeper thermocline and more relaxed easterly winds than usual. The surface condition resulting from the wave-seasonal SST resonance represents a preconditioned state that leads to an enhancement in incident downwelling Kelvin waves to levels sufficient to induce large-amplitude unstable coupled waves in the central to eastern equatorial region. Heat balance estimates using our reanalysis dataset suggest that the unstable coupled waves are categorized within the intermediate regime of coupled Kelvin and Rossby waves and have the potential to grow rapidly. We argue that the seasonal resonance and the unstable coupled waves should play crucial roles in the development of the largest historical El Niño event, which was recorded between late 1997 and early 1998.     

Changes in Vertical Distribution and Column Content of NO<Subscript>2</Subscript> under the Influence of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

Characteristic features of changes in the vertical distribution and column content of NO₂, total ozone, and stratospheric temperature have been revealed as a result of major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Strong negative anomalies of column NO₂, total ozone and stratospheric temperature are caused by the displacement of the stratospheric circumpolar vortex aside from the pole. Strong positive anomalies of column NO₂ and total ozone are observed more frequently under SSWs accompanied by splitting of the stratospheric circumpolar vortex and are caused by the transport of stratospheric air from the low latitudes. Major SSWs can lead to significant changes in the vertical profile of NO₂. The changes in different stratospheric layers can be opposite to each other when the edge of the polar vortex is over a site of ground-based observations.     

ENSO-induced interannual variability in the southeastern South China Sea

In this study, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-induced interannual variability in the South China Sea (SCS) is documented using outputs from an eddy-resolving data-assimilating model. It is suggested that during an El Niño (La Niña) event, off-equatorial upwelling (downwelling) Rossby waves induced by Pacific equatorial wind anomalies impinge on the Philippine Islands and excite upwelling (downwelling) coastal Kelvin waves that propagate northward along the west coast of the Philippines after entering the SCS through the Mindoro Strait. The coastal Kelvin waves may then induce negative (positive) sea level anomalies in the southeastern SCS and larger (smaller) volume transport through the Mindoro and Luzon Straits during an El Niño (La Niña) event.