Probabilistic demand and fragility assessment of welded column splices in steel moment frames

An assessment of seismic demands and capacities of welded column splice (WCS) connections in steel moment frames is presented. For demand assessment, nonlinear dynamic analyses are conducted for two case‐study buildings, that is, a 4‐story and a 20‐story moment frame. Results from the nonlinear dynamic analyses are assessed through a probabilistic seismic demand analysis (PSDA) framework to characterize recurrence rates of longitudinal flange stress in these connections. The PSDA is applied in two contexts. First, in the context of WCS connections constructed prior to the M 6.7 1994 Northridge earthquake, the PSDA is combined with sophisticated finite element‐based fracture mechanics analysis to compute the mean annual frequencies of fracture in these connections. The pre‐Northridge WCS are especially critical because they feature partial joint penetration and brittle materials that compromise their resistance to fracture. The analysis indicates that the mean annual frequencies of fracture in these connections may be unacceptably high for both the 4‐story and the 20‐story frames. This warrants a serious and urgent consideration of retrofit strategies. These findings are attributed to the brittleness of the pre‐Northridge splices (as indicated by the fracture mechanics simulations), as well as the force‐controlled nature of these components, wherein low‐intensity ground motions contribute disproportionately to fracture risk, as evidenced by fracture risk disaggregation. Second, in the context of new construction, the PSDA provides meaningful stress magnitudes for design. Currently, WCS connections employ complete joint penetration welds with the intent to develop the smaller column flange in yielding. The PSDA conducted in this study suggests that this requirement may be too stringent because stress demands in the splices corresponding even to high return periods (e.g., 2475 years) are significantly lower (~40 ksi), as compared with the stress required to yield the column (~55 ksi). Limitations of the study are outlined. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Experimental study on full-scale steel beam-to-column moment connections

Ten full-scale steel beam-to-column moment connections used in moment-resisting frames （MRFs） were tested to study the failure process, failure mode, strength and plastic rotation capacity. The specimens include one traditional welded flange-bolted web connection, one traditional fully welded connection, four beam flange strengthened connections, three beam flange weakened connections, and one through-diaphragm connection. The test results show that the connections with flange cover plates or with partly cut beam flanges satisfy the beam plastic rotation demand for ductile MRFs. From the measured stress profiles along the beam flange and beam web depth, the mechanics of brittle fracture at the end of the beam is discussed. Design recommendations for steel beam-to-column moment connections are proposed.     

Probabilistic evaluation of seismic performance of 3‐story 3D one‐ and two‐way steel moment‐frame structures

This paper presents the results of a probabilistic evaluation of the seismic performance of 3D steel moment‐frame structures. Two types of framing system are considered: one‐way frames typical of construction in the United States and two‐way frames typical of construction in Japan. For each framing system, four types of beam–column connections are considered: pre‐Northridge welded‐flange bolted‐web, post‐Northridge welded‐flange welded‐web, reduced‐beam‐section, and bolted‐flange‐plate connections. A suite of earthquake ground motions is used to compute the annual probability of exceedence (APE) for a series of drift demand levels and for member plastic‐rotation capacity. Results are compared for the different framing systems and connection details. It is found that the two‐way frames, which have a larger initial stiffness and strength than the one‐way frames for the same beam and column volumes, have a smaller APE for small drift demands for which members exhibit no or minimal yielding, but have a larger APE for large drift demands for which members exhibit large plastic rotations. However, the one‐way frames, which typically comprise a few seismic frames with large‐sized members that have relatively small rotation capacities, may have a larger APE for member failure. The probabilistic approach presented in this study may be used to determine the most appropriate frame configuration to meet an owner's performance objectives. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Deriving fragility functions from bilinearized capacity curves for earthquake scenario modelling using the conditional spectrum

The development of fragility curves to perform seismic scenario-based risk assessment requires a fully probabilistic procedure in order to account for uncertainties at each step of the computation. This is especially true when developing fragility curves conditional on an Intensity Measure that is directly available from a ground-motion prediction equation. In this study, we propose a new derivation method that uses realistic spectra instead of design spectral shapes or uniform hazard spectra and allows one to easily account for the features of the site-specific hazard that influences the fragility, without using non-linear dynamic analysis. The proposed method has been applied to typical school building types in the city of Basel (Switzerland) and the results have been compared to the standard practice in Europe. The results confirm that fragility curves are scenario dependent and are particularly sensitive to the magnitude of the earthquake scenario. The same background theory used for the derivation of the fragility curves has allowed an innovative method to be proposed for the conversion of fragility curves to a common IM (i.e. spectral acceleration or PGA). This conversion is the only way direct comparisons of fragility curves can be made and is useful when inter-period correlation cannot be used in scenario loss assessment. Moreover, such conversion is necessary to compare and verify newly developed curves against those from previous studies. Conversion to macroseismic intensity is also relevant for the comparison between mechanical-based and empirical fragility curves, in order to detect possible biases.     

Comparison of conventional and Monte Carlo simulation-based probabilistic seismic hazard analyses for Shiraz city,southern Iran

Estimation of ground-motion amplitudes of different hazard levels is of paramount importance in planning of urban development of any metropolis. Such estimation can be computed through a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). This paper concentrates on the PSHA of an area located in Shiraz city, southern Iran. The area includes whole of Shiraz city (i.e., one of the largest and most populous cities of Iran) and its outskirts. Conventional and Monte Carlo simulation-based approaches are utilized to perform the PSHA of the studied area. Two areal seismic source models are delineated, and thence seismicity parameters of all zones associated with their corresponding uncertainties are computed. Uncertainties in ground-motion prediction are accounted for via three ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) within the logic tree framework. These GMPEs are applied to estimate bedrock ground shaking (V_s30?=?760 m/s) for several return periods (i.e., 75, 475, 975, and 2475 years). In general, the results of the two abovementioned PSHA approaches show relatively similar results. However, the Monte Carlo simulation-based approach overpredicts bedrock spectral accelerations at periods of 0.4–2.5 s compared to the conventional PSHA approach for return periods of 475, 975, and 2475 years.     

考虑不确定因素的山岭隧道地震易损性研究

基于均匀设计法,考虑围岩和衬砌的不确定性,提出了一种高效计算山岭隧道地震易损性的模型。基于该模型,得到了计算岩石山岭隧道结构的易损性计算曲线。根据计算结果得出:（1）均匀设计法能够考虑多种不确定性并为计算生成好的样本参数;（2）根据计算所得的地震结构易损性曲线与经验易损性曲线相对比,得出所提出的计算模型有较好的适用性。当交通隧道穿越地震带时,所提出的地震易损性曲线分析可为隧道线路规划以及设计参考。     

Critical uncertainty parameters influencing seismic performance of bridges using Lasso regression

Recent efforts of regional risk assessment of structures often pose a challenge in dealing with the potentially variable uncertain input parameters. The source of uncertainties can be either epistemic or aleatoric. This article identifies uncertain variables exhibiting strongest influences on the seismic demand of bridge components through various regression techniques such as linear, stepwise, Ridge, Lasso, and elastic net regressions. The statistical results indicate that Lasso regression is the most effective one in predicting the demand model as it has the lowest mean square error and absolute error. As the sensitivity study identifies more than 1 significant variable, a multiparameter fragility model using Lasso regression is suggested in this paper. The proposed fragility methodology is able to identify the relative impact of each uncertain input variable and level of treatment needed for these variables in the estimation of seismic demand models and fragility curves. Thus, the proposed approach helps bridge owners to spend their resources judiciously (e.g., data collection, field investigations, and censoring) in the generation of a more reliable database for regional risk assessment. This proposed approach can be applicable to other structures.     

低周反复荷载作用下矩形钢管混凝土柱与钢梁连接节点的受力性能

本文进行了2种矩形钢管混凝土柱与钢梁连接节点——翼缘全螺栓(BFP)连接节点与外加强环(WFP-BW)连接节点在柱端低周反复荷载作用下的抗震性能试验,分析比较了这2类节点与焊接翼缘板(WFP)连接节点在不同轴压比下的滞回性能、强度与刚度退化、延性比与耗能比、破坏机理与破坏特征,得出了一些有参考价值的结论。     

Seismic displacement demand prediction in non-linear domain: Optimization of the N2 method

In Europe, computation of displacement demand for seismic assessment of existing buildings is essentially based on a simplified formulation of the N2 method as prescribed by Eurocode 8(EC8). However, a lack of accuracy of the N2 method in certain conditions has been pointed out by several studies. This paper addresses the assessment of effectiveness of the N2 method in seismic displacement demand determination in non-linear domain. The objective of this work is to investigate the accuracy of the N2 method through comparison with displacement demands computed using non-linear timehistory analysis(NLTHA). Results show that the original N2 method may lead to overestimation or underestimation of displacement demand predictions. This may affect results of mechanical model-based assessment of seismic vulnerability at an urban scale. Hence, the second part of this paper addresses an improvement of the N2 method formula by empirical evaluation of NLTHA results based on EC8 ground-classes. This task is formulated as a mathematical programming problem in which coefficients are obtained by minimizing the overall discrepancy between NLTHA and modified formula results. Various settings of the mathematical programming problem have been solved using a global optimization metaheuristic. An extensive comparison between the original N2 method formulation and optimized formulae highlights benefits of the strategy.     

Seismic rehabilitation performance of steel side plate moment connections

Moment connections in an existing steel building located in Kaohsiung, Taiwan were rehabilitated to satisfy seismic requirements based on the 2005 AISC seismic provisions. Construction of the building was ceased in 1996 due to financial difficulties and was recommenced in 2007 with enhanced connection performance. Steel moment connections in the existing building were constructed by groove welding the beam flanges and bolting the beam web to the column. Four moment connections, two from the existing steel building, were cyclically tested. A non‐rehabilitated moment connection with bolted web‐welded flanges was tested as a benchmark. Three moment connections rehabilitated by welding full‐depth side plates between the column face and beam flange inner side were tested to validate the rehabilitation performance. Test results revealed that (1) the non‐rehabilitated existing moment connection made by in situ welding process prior to 1996 had similar deformation capacity as contemporary connection specimens made by laboratory welding process, (2) all rehabilitated moment connections exhibited excellent performance, exceeding a 4% drift without fractures of beam flange groove‐welded joints, and (3) presence of the full‐depth side plates effectively reduced beam flange tensile strain near the column face by almost half compared with the non‐rehabilitated moment connection. The connection specimens were also modeled using the non‐linear finite element computer program ABAQUS to further confirm the effectiveness of the side plate in transferring beam moments to the column and to investigate potential sources of connection failure. A design procedure was made based on experimental and analytical studies. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Post-earthquake estimates of different ground motion intensity measures for the 2012 Emilia earthquake

Estimates of the earthquake ground motion intensity over a geographical area have multiple uses, that is, emergency management, civil protection and seismic fragility assessment. In particular, with reference to fragility assessment, it is of interest to have estimates of the values of different ground-motion intensity measures in order to correlate them with the observed damage. To this purpose, the present paper uses a procedure recently proposed in the literature to estimate the ground-motion intensity for the 2012 Emilia mainshocks, considering different ground motion intensity measures and directionality effects. Ground motion prediction equations based on different site effect models, and spatial correlation models are calibrated for the Emilia earthquakes. The paper discusses the accuracy of the shakemaps obtained using the different soil effect models considered and presents the obtained shakemaps as supplementary material. The procedure presented in the paper is aimed at providing ground motion intensity values for seismic fragility assessment and is not intended as a tool to estimate shakemaps for rapid emergency assessment.     

Vector-intensity measure based seismic vulnerability analysis of bridge structures

This paper presents a method for seismic vulnerability analysis of bridge structures based on vector-valued intensity measure(v IM), which predicts the limit-state capacities efficiently with multi-intensity measures of seismic event. Accounting for the uncertainties of the bridge model, ten single-bent overpass bridge structures are taken as samples statistically using Latin hypercube sampling approach. 200 earthquake records are chosen randomly for the uncertainties of ground motions according to the site condition of the bridges. The uncertainties of structural capacity and seismic demand are evaluated with the ratios of demand to capacity in different damage state. By comparing the relative importance of different intensity measures, Sa(T1) and Sa(T2) are chosen as v IM. Then, the vector-valued fragility functions of different bridge components are developed. Finally, the system-level vulnerability of the bridge based on v IM is studied with DunnettSobel class correlation matrix which can consider the correlation effects of different bridge components. The study indicates that an increment IMs from a scalar IM to v IM results in a significant reduction in the dispersion of fragility functions and in the uncertainties in evaluating earthquake risk. The feasibility and validity of the proposed vulnerability analysis method is validated and the bridge is more vulnerable than any components.     

Probabilistic performance assessment of low‐ductility reinforced concrete frames retrofitted with dissipative braces

The paper illustrates a probabilistic methodology for assessing the vulnerability of existing reinforced concrete (RC) buildings with limited ductility capacity retrofitted by means of dissipative braces. The aim is to highlight the most important parameters controlling the capacity of these coupled systems and specific aspects concerning the response uncertainties. The proposed methodology is based on the use of local engineering demand parameters for monitoring the seismic response and on the development of component and system fragility curves before and after the retrofit. In the first part of the paper, the methodology is illustrated by highlighting its advantages with respect to the existing approaches. Then, its capability and effectiveness are tested by considering a benchmark two‐dimensional RC frame designed for gravity‐loads only. The frame is retrofitted by introducing elasto‐plastic dissipative braces designed for different levels of base shear capacity. The obtained results show the effectiveness of the methodology in describing the changes in the response and in the failure modalities before and after the retrofit, for different retrofit levels. Moreover, the retrofit effectiveness is evaluated by introducing proper synthetic parameters describing the fragility curves and by stressing the importance of employing local engineering demand parameters (EDPs) rather than global EDPs in the seismic risk evaluation of coupled systems consisting in low‐ductility RC frames and dissipative braces. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Loss estimation for non‐ductile reinforced concrete building in Victoria,British Columbia,Canada: effects of mega‐thrust Mw9‐class subduction earthquakes and aftershocks

This paper presents, within the performance‐based earthquake engineering framework, a comprehensive probabilistic seismic loss estimation method that accounts for main sources of uncertainty related to hazard, vulnerability, and loss. The loss assessment rigorously integrates multiple engineering demand parameters (maximum and residual inter‐story drift ratio and peak floor acceleration) with consideration of mainshock–aftershock sequences. A 4‐story non‐ductile reinforced concrete building located in Victoria, British Colombia, Canada, is considered as a case study. For 100 mainshock and mainshock–aftershock earthquake records, incremental dynamic analysis is performed, and the three engineering demand parameters are fitted with a probability distribution and corresponding dependence computed. Finally, with consideration of different demolition limit states, loss assessment is performed. From the results, it can be shown that when seismic vulnerability models are integrated with seismic hazard, the aftershock effects are relatively minor in terms of overall seismic loss (1–4% increase). Moreover, demolition limit state parameters, uncertainties of collapse fragility, and non‐collapse seismic demand prediction models have showed significant contribution to the loss assessment. The seismic loss curves for the reference case and for cases with the varied parameters can differ by as large as about 150%. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing the impact of ground-motion variability and uncertainty on empirical fragility curves

Empirical fragility curves, constructed from databases of thousands of building-damage observations, are commonly used for earthquake risk assessments, particularly in Europe and Japan, where building stocks are often difficult to model analytically (e.g. old masonry structures or timber dwellings). Curves from different studies, however, display considerable differences, which lead to high uncertainty in the assessed seismic risk. One potential reason for this dispersion is the almost universal neglect of the spatial variability in ground motions and the epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion prediction. In this paper, databases of building damage are simulated using ground-motion fields that take account of spatial variability and a known fragility curve. These databases are then inverted, applying a standard approach for the derivation of empirical fragility curves, and the difference with the known curve is studied. A parametric analysis is conducted to investigate the impact of various assumptions on the results. By this approach, it is concluded that ground-motion variability leads to flatter fragility curves and that the epistemic uncertainty in the ground-motion prediction equation used can have a dramatic impact on the derived curves. Without dense ground-motion recording networks in the epicentral area empirical curves will remain highly uncertain. Moreover, the use of aggregated damage observations appears to substantially increase uncertainty in the empirical fragility assessment. In contrast, the use of limited randomly-chosen un-aggregated samples in the affected area can result in good predictions of fragility.     

Vector-valued fragility functions for seismic risk evaluation

This article presents a method for the development of vector-valued fragility functions, which are a function of more than one intensity measure (IM, also known as ground-motion parameters) for use within seismic risk evaluation of buildings. As an example, a simple unreinforced masonry structure is modelled using state-of-the-art software and hundreds of nonlinear time-history analyses are conducted to compute the response of this structure to earthquake loading. Dozens of different IMs (e.g. peak ground acceleration and velocity, response spectral accelerations at various periods, Arias intensity and various duration and number of cycle measures) are considered to characterize the earthquake shaking. It is demonstrated through various statistical techniques (including Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis) that the use of more than one IM leads to a better prediction of the damage state of the building than just a single IM, which is the current practice. In addition, it is shown that the assumption of the lognormal distribution for the derivation of fragility functions leads to more robust functions than logistic, log-logistic or kernel regression. Finally, actual fragility surfaces using two pairs of IMs (one pair are uncorrelated while the other are correlated) are derived and compared to scalar-based fragility curves using only a single IM and a significant reduction in the uncertainty of the predicted damage level is observed. This type of fragility surface would be a key component of future risk evaluations that take account of recent developments in seismic hazard assessment, such as vector-valued probabilistic seismic hazard assessments.     

Fragility estimation and sensitivity analysis of an idealized pile-supported wharf with batter piles

The main objective of the present study is to develop seismic fragility curves of an idealized pile-supported wharf with batter piles through a practical framework. Proposing quantitative limit states, analytical fragility curves are developed considering three engineering demand parameters (EDPs), including displacement ductility factor (µ_d), differential settlement between deck and behind land (DS) and normalized residual horizontal displacement (NRHD). Analytical fragility curves are generated using the results of a numerical model. So, the accuracy and reliability of resulted fragility curves directly depend on how accurate the seismic demand quantities are estimated. In addition, the seismic performance of pile-supported wharves is highly influenced by geotechnical properties of the soil structure system. Hence, a sensitivity analysis using the first-order second-moment (FOSM) method is performed to evaluate the effects of geotechnical parameters uncertainties in the seismic performance of the wharf.Herein, the seismic performance of the wharf structure is simulated using the representative FLAC2D model and performing nonlinear time history analyses under a suit of eight ground motion records. Incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) is used to estimate the seismic demand quantities. As a prevailing tool, adopted fragility curves are useful to seismic risk assessment. They can also be used to optimize wharf-retrofit methods. The results of sensitivity analysis demonstrate that uncertainties associated with the porosity of loose sand contribute most to the variance of both NRHD and µ_d. While in the case of differential settlement, the friction angle of loose sand contributes most to the variance.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the Pyrenean region

A unified probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for the Pyrenean region has been performed by an international team composed of experts from Spain and France during the Interreg IIIA ISARD project. It is motivated by incoherencies between the seismic hazard zonations of the design codes of France and Spain and by the need for input data to be used to define earthquake scenarios. A great effort was invested in the homogenisation of the input data. All existing seismic data are collected in a database and lead to a unified catalogue using a local magnitude scale. PSHA has been performed using logic trees combined with Monte Carlo simulations to account for both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. As an alternative to hazard calculation based on seismic sources zone models, a zoneless method is also used to produce a hazard map less dependant on zone boundaries. Two seismogenic source models were defined to take into account the different interpretations existing among specialists. A new regional ground-motion prediction equation based on regional data has been proposed. It was used in combination with published ground-motion prediction equations derived using European and Mediterranean data. The application of this methodology leads to the definition of seismic hazard maps for 475- and 1,975-year return periods for spectral accelerations at periods of 0 (corresponding to peak ground acceleration), 0.1, 0.3, 0.6, 1 and 2 s. Median and percentiles 15% and 85% acceleration contour lines are represented. Finally, the seismic catalogue is used to produce a map of the maximum acceleration expected for comparison with the probabilistic hazard maps. The hazard maps are produced using a grid of 0.1°. The results obtained may be useful for civil protection and risk prevention purposes in France, Spain and Andorra.     

Seismic resistance capacity of beam–column connections in high‐rise buildings: E‐Defense shaking table test

A series of E‐Defense shaking table tests are conducted on a large‐scale test specimen that represents a high‐rise steel building. Two types of connections featuring the connection details commonly used in 1970s, in the early days of high‐rise construction in Japan, are adopted: the field‐welded connection consisting of welded unreinforced flanges and a bolted web type, and the shop‐welded connection in which the flanges and web are all‐welded to the column flange in the shop. To examine the seismic capacity of a total of 24 beam‐to‐column connections of the specimen, particularly when it is subjected to long‐period ground motion characterized not so much by large amplitude as by very many cycles of repeated loading, the test specimen is shaken repeatedly until the connections fractured. The test results indicate that a few of the field‐welded connections fractured from the bottom flange weld boundary in a relatively small cumulative rotation primarily due to the difficulties in ensuring the welding and inspection performance in the actual field welding. The shop‐welded connections are able to sustain many cycles of plastic rotation, with an averaged cumulative plastic rotation of 0.86 rad. Two shop‐welded connections exhibit ductile fractures but only after experiencing many cycles. The presence of RC floor slabs promotes the strain concentration at the toe of the weld access hole in the bottom flange by at least twice compared with the case without the slab, which had resulted in a decrease in the cumulative plastic rotation by about 50%. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Influence of Ground-Motion Variability in Earthquake Loss Modelling

Earthquake loss models are subject to many large uncertainties associated with the input parameters that define the seismicity, the ground motion, the exposure and the vulnerability characteristics of the building stock. In order to obtain useful results from a loss model, it is necessary to correctly identify and characterise these uncertainties, incorporate them into the calculations, and then interpret the results taking account of the influence of the uncertainties. An important element of the uncertainty will always be the aleatory variability in the ground-motion prediction. Options for handling this variability include following the traditional approach used in site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard assessment or embedding the variability within the vulnerability calculations at each location. The physical interpretation of both of these approaches, when applied to many sites throughout an urban area to assess the overall effects of single or multiple earthquake events, casts doubts on their validity. The only approach that is consistent with the real nature of ground-motion variability is to model the shaking component of the loss model by triggering large numbers of earthquake scenarios that sample the magnitude and spatial distributions of the seismicity, and also the distribution of ground motions for each event as defined by the aleatory variability.