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1.
Zonghu Liao Yang Hong Dalia Kirschbaum Robert F. Adler Jonathan J. Gourley Rick Wooten 《Natural Hazards》2011,58(1):325-339
The key to advancing the predictability of rainfall-triggered landslides is to use physically based slope-stability models
that simulate the transient dynamical response of the subsurface moisture to spatiotemporal variability of rainfall in complex
terrains. TRIGRS (transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope-stability analysis) is a USGS landslide prediction
model, coded in Fortran, that accounts for the influences of hydrology, topography, and soil physics on slope stability. In
this study, we quantitatively evaluate the spatiotemporal predictability of a Matlab version of TRIGRS (MaTRIGRS) in the Blue
Ridge Mountains of Macon County, North Carolina where Hurricanes Ivan triggered widespread landslides in the 2004 hurricane
season. High resolution digital elevation model (DEM) data (6-m LiDAR), USGS STATSGO soil database, and NOAA/NWS combined
radar and gauge precipitation are used as inputs to the model. A local landslide inventory database from North Carolina Geological
Survey is used to evaluate the MaTRIGRS’ predictive skill for the landslide locations and timing, identifying predictions
within a 120-m radius of observed landslides over the 30-h period of Hurricane Ivan’s passage in September 2004. Results show
that within a radius of 24 m from the landslide location about 67% of the landslide, observations could be successfully predicted
but with a high false alarm ratio (90%). If the radius of observation is extended to 120 m, 98% of the landslides are detected
with an 18% false alarm ratio. This study shows that MaTRIGRS demonstrates acceptable spatiotemporal predictive skill for
landslide occurrences within a 120-m radius in space and a hurricane-event-duration (h) in time, offering the potential to
serve as a landslide warning system in areas where accurate rainfall forecasts and detailed field data are available. The
validation can be further improved with additional landslide information including the exact time of failure for each landslide
and the landslide’s extent and run out length. 相似文献
2.
For the assessment of shallow landslides triggered by rainfall, the physically based model coupling the infinite slope stability
analysis with the hydrological modeling in nearly saturated soil has commonly been used due to its simplicity. However, in
that model the rainfall infiltration in unsaturated soil could not be reliably simulated because a linear diffusion-type Richards’
equation rather than the complete Richards’ equation was used. In addition, the effect of matric suction on the shear strength
of soil was not actually considered. Therefore, except the shallow landslide in saturated soil due to groundwater table rise,
the shallow landslide induced by the loss in unsaturated shear strength due to the dissipation of matric suction could not
be reliably assessed. In this study, a physically based model capable of assessing shallow landslides in variably saturated
soils is developed by adopting the complete Richards’ equation with the effect of slope angle in the rainfall infiltration
modeling and using the extended Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion to describe the unsaturated shear strength in the soil failure
modeling. The influence of rainfall intensity and duration on shallow landslide is investigated using the developed model.
The result shows that the rainfall intensity and duration seem to have similar influence on shallow landslides respectively
triggered by the increase of positive pore water pressure in saturated soil and induced by the dissipation of matric suction
in unsaturated soil. The rainfall duration threshold decreases with the increase in rainfall intensity, but remains constant
for large rainfall intensity. 相似文献
3.
Modeling landslide recurrence in Seattle, Washington, USA 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
Diana Salciarini Jonathan W. Godt William Z. Savage Rex L. Baum Pietro Conversini 《Engineering Geology》2008,102(3-4):227
To manage the hazard associated with shallow landslides, decision makers need an understanding of where and when landslides may occur. A variety of approaches have been used to estimate the hazard from shallow, rainfall-triggered landslides, such as empirical rainfall threshold methods or probabilistic methods based on historical records. The wide availability of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and digital topographic data has led to the development of analytic methods for landslide hazard estimation that couple steady-state hydrological models with slope stability calculations. Because these methods typically neglect the transient effects of infiltration on slope stability, results cannot be linked with historical or forecasted rainfall sequences. Estimates of the frequency of conditions likely to cause landslides are critical for quantitative risk and hazard assessments. We present results to demonstrate how a transient infiltration model coupled with an infinite slope stability calculation may be used to assess shallow landslide frequency in the City of Seattle, Washington, USA. A module called CRF (Critical RainFall) for estimating deterministic rainfall thresholds has been integrated in the TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Slope-Stability) model that combines a transient, one-dimensional analytic solution for pore-pressure response to rainfall infiltration with an infinite slope stability calculation. Input data for the extended model include topographic slope, colluvial thickness, initial water-table depth, material properties, and rainfall durations. This approach is combined with a statistical treatment of rainfall using a GEV (General Extreme Value) probabilistic distribution to produce maps showing the shallow landslide recurrence induced, on a spatially distributed basis, as a function of rainfall duration and hillslope characteristics. 相似文献
4.
An integrated model simulating the initiation and motion of earthquake and rain induced rapid landslides and its application to the 2006 Leyte landslide 总被引:10,自引:7,他引:3
A gigantic rapid landslide claiming over 1,000 fatalities was triggered by rainfalls and a small nearby earthquake in the
Leyte Island, Philippines in 2006. The disaster presented the necessity of a new modeling technology for disaster risk preparedness
which simulates initiation and motion. This paper presents a new computer simulation integrating the initiation process triggered
by rainfalls and/or earthquakes and the development process to a rapid motion due to strength reduction and the entrainment
of deposits in the runout path. This simulation model LS-RAPID was developed from the geotechnical model for the motion of landslides (Sassa 1988) and its improved simulation model (Sassa et al. 2004b) and new knowledge obtained from a new dynamic loading ring shear apparatus (Sassa et al. 2004a). The examination of performance of each process in a simple imaginary slope addressed that the simulation model well simulated
the process of progressive failure, and development to a rapid landslide. The initiation process was compared to conventional
limit equilibrium stability analyses by changing pore pressure ratio. The simulation model started to move in a smaller pore
pressure ratio than the limit equilibrium stability analyses because of progressive failure. However, when a larger shear
deformation is set as the threshold for the start of strength reduction, the onset of landslide motion by the simulation agrees
with the cases where the factor of safety estimated by the limit equilibrium stability analyses equals to a unity. The field
investigation and the undrained dynamic loading ring shear tests on the 2006 Leyte landslide suggested that this landslide
was triggered by the combined effect of pore water pressure due to rains and a very small earthquake. The application of this
simulation model could well reproduce the initiation and the rapid long runout motion of the Leyte landslide. 相似文献
5.
This paper addresses the temporal variation of rainfall-triggered landslide hazard within the broader context of natural risk
evolution. Analysis of a sequence of aerial photos covering a period of 60 years allowed the establishment of a record of
landsliding for a site in the Wellington region, New Zealand. The data show one very dominant peak in the magnitude of landslide
occurrence in the late 1970s, followed by a continuous decrease. Landslide hazard can be expressed by the frequency and magnitude
of the landslide events, with the total surface area affected used as a surrogate for magnitude. However, the distinct decline
of landslide magnitude through time from the 1980s onwards indicates that landslide hazard may change with time. This possibility
is further explored by correlating potential landslide triggering storms with the magnitude of the landslide event, using
the ‘Antecedent Soil Water Status’ model in combination with daily rainfall. The relation between magnitudes of rainfall and
magnitudes of landslide events is found to be weak, suggesting that a given ‘Critical Water Content’ (antecedent soil water
status and rainfall on the day) does not produce similar magnitudes of landsliding. Furthermore, the study shows that reactivation
of previous landslides before the peak landslide occurrence of the late 1970s is low, while the situation is reversed after
this peak and reactivation in the subsequent years plays a larger role. It is concluded that the pattern of landsliding cannot
be explained by the pattern of rainfall and other factors are controlling the variation of landslide hazard in time. A possible
explanation is a change of the geomorphological system with time, instigated by a massive period of landsliding (the late
1970s peak). Subsequent sediment exhaustion of source areas resulting from this period appears to alter the system’s subsequent
reaction to an external trigger such as rainfall. The study demonstrates that landslide hazard analysis in general should
not rely on the integral of the frequency–magnitude relationship only, but should include potential non-linear changes of
system settings to increase the understanding of future system behaviour, and therefore hazard and risk.
相似文献
Gabi HufschmidtEmail: |
6.
Scaling and multivariate analysis of medium to large landslide events: Haida Gwaii, British Columbia
Gimbarzevsky (1988) collected an exceptional landsliding inventory for Haida Gwaii, British Columbia that included over 8,000 landsliding vectors
covering an area of approximately 10,000 km2. This database was never published in the referred literature, despite its regional significance. It was collected prior
to widespread application of GIS technologies in landsliding studies, limiting the analyses undertaken at the time. Gimbarzevsky
identified landslides using 1:50,000 aerial photographs, and transferred the information to NTS map sheets. In our study,
we digitized the landslide vectors from these original map sheets and connected each landslide to a digital elevation model.
Lengths of landslide vectors are compared to the landsliding inventory for Haida Gwaii analyzed in Rood (1984), Martin Y et al. BC Can J Earth Sci 39:289–305 (2002); the latter inventory is based on larger-scale aerial photographs (~1:12,000). Rood’s database contains a more complete
record of smaller landslides, while the inventory of Gimbarzevsky provides improved statistical representation of less frequent,
medium to large landslides. It is suggested that combined landslide delineation at different scales could provide a more complete
landslide record. Discriminant analysis was undertaken to assess which of nine predictor variables, chosen on the basis of
mechanical theory, best predict failed versus unfailed locations. Seven of the nine variables were found to be statistically
significant in discriminating amongst failed and unfailed locations. Results show that 81.7% of original grouped cases were
correctly classified. 相似文献
7.
Daniela Blessent Janet Barco André Guy Tranquille Temgoua Oscar Echeverrri-Ramirez 《Hydrogeology Journal》2017,25(2):331-345
Numerical results are presented of surface-subsurface water modeling of a natural hillslope located in the Aburrá Valley, in the city of Medellín (Antioquia, Colombia). The integrated finite-element hydrogeological simulator HydroGeoSphere is used to conduct transient variably saturated simulations. The objective is to analyze pore-water pressure and saturation variation at shallow depths, as well as volumes of water infiltrated in the porous medium. These aspects are important in the region of study, which is highly affected by soil movements, especially during the high-rain seasons that occur twice a year. The modeling exercise considers rainfall events that occurred between October and December 2014 and a hillslope that is currently monitored because of soil instability problems. Simulation results show that rainfall temporal variability, mesh resolution, coupling length, and the conceptual model chosen to represent the heterogeneous soil, have a noticeable influence on results, particularly for high rainfall intensities. Results also indicate that surface-subsurface coupled modeling is required to avoid unrealistic increase in hydraulic heads when high rainfall intensities cause top-down saturation of soil. This work is a first effort towards fostering hydrogeological modeling expertise that may support the development of monitoring systems and early landslide warning in a country where the rainy season is often the cause of hydrogeological tragedies associated with landslides, mud flow or debris flow. 相似文献
8.
FLaIR and SUSHI: two mathematical models for early warning of landslides induced by rainfall 总被引:8,自引:7,他引:1
The development of Early Warning Systems in recent years has assumed an increasingly important role in landslide risk mitigation.
In this context, the main topic is the relationship between rainfall and the incidence of landslides. In this paper, we focus
our attention on the analysis of mathematical models capable of simulating triggering conditions. These fall into two broad
categories: hydrological models and complete models. Generally, hydrological models comprise simple empirical relationships
linking antecedent precipitation to the time that the landslide occurs; the latter consist of more complex expressions that
take several components into account, including specific site conditions, mechanical, hydraulic and physical soil properties,
local seepage conditions, and the contribution of these to soil strength. In a review of the most important models proposed
in the technical and international literature, we have outlined their most meaningful and salient aspects. In particular,
the Forecasting of Landslides Induced by Rainfall (FLaIR) and the Saturated Unsaturated Simulation for Hillslope Instability
(SUSHI) models, developed by the authors, are discussed. FLaIR is a hydrological model based on the identification of a mobility
function dependent on landslide characteristics and antecedent rainfall, correlated to the probability of a slide occurring.
SUSHI is a complete model for describing hydraulic phenomena at slope scale, incorporating Darcian saturated flow, with particular
emphasis on spatial–temporal changes in subsoil pore pressure. It comprises a hydraulic module for analysing the circulation
of water from rainfall infiltration in saturated and nonsaturated layers in non-stationary conditions and a geotechnical slope
stability module based on Limit Equilibrium Methods. The paper also includes some examples of these models’ applications in
the framework of early warning systems in Italy. 相似文献
9.
The empirical rainfall threshold concept and the physical-based model are two commonly used approaches for the assessment
of shallow landslides triggered by rainfall. To investigate in detail the rainfall-triggered shallow landslides, many physical-based
models coupling the infinite slope stability analysis with the rainfall infiltration modeling in variably saturated soil were
developed. However, in those physical-based shallow landslide models, the unit weight and the unsaturated shear strength were
assumed constant rather than depending on the degree of saturation. In this study, the effects of the unit weight and the
unsaturated shear strength as function of degree of saturation on rainfall-triggered shallow landslides are examined. Several
designed scenarios and a real case scenario are used to conduct the examinations. The results show that not only the occurrence
of shallow landslides but also the failure depth and the time to failure could be misassessed if the influences of degree
of saturation on the unit weight and the unsaturated shear strength are neglected. 相似文献
10.
It has been known that ground motion amplitude will be amplified at mountaintops; however, such topographic effects are not
included in conventional landslide hazard models. In this study, a modified procedure that considers the topographic effects
is proposed to analyze the seismic landslide hazard. The topographic effect is estimated by back analysis. First, a 3D dynamic
numerical model with irregular topography is constructed. The theoretical topographic amplification factors are derived from
the dynamic numerical model. The ground motion record is regarded as the reference motion in the plane area. By combining
the topographic amplification factors with the reference motions, the amplified acceleration time history and amplified seismic
intensity parameters are obtained. Newmark’s displacement model is chosen to perform the seismic landslide hazard analysis.
By combining the regression equation and the seismic parameter of peak ground acceleration and Arias intensity, the Newmark’s
displacement distribution is generated. Subsequently, the calculated Newmark’s displacement maps are transformed to the hazard
maps. The landslide hazard maps of the 99 Peaks region, Central Taiwan are evaluated. The actual landslide inventory maps
triggered by the 21 September 1999, Chi-Chi earthquake are compared with the calculated hazard maps. Relative to the conventional
procedure, the results show that the proposed procedures, which include the topographic effect can obtain a better result
for seismic landslide hazard analysis.
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. 相似文献
11.
Assessment of shallow landslides from Hurricane Mitch in central America using a physically based model 总被引:5,自引:2,他引:3
Shallow landslides induced by heavy rainfall events represent one of the most disastrous hazards in mountainous regions because
of their high frequency and rapid mobility. Recent advancements in the availability and accessibility of remote sensing data,
including topography, land cover and precipitation products, allow landslide hazard assessment to be considered at larger
spatial scales. A theoretical framework for a landslide forecasting system was prototyped in this study using several remotely
sensed and surface parameters. The applied physical model SLope-Infiltration-Distributed Equilibrium (SLIDE) takes into account
some simplified hypotheses on water infiltration and defines a direct relation between factor of safety and the rainfall depth
on an infinite slope. This prototype model is applied to a case study in Honduras during Hurricane Mitch in 1998. Two study
areas were selected where a high density of shallow landslides occurred, covering approximately 1,200 km2. The results were quantitatively evaluated using landslide inventory data compiled by the United States Geological Survey
(USGS) following Hurricane Mitch’s landfall. The agreement between the SLIDE modeling results and landslide observations demonstrates
good predictive skill and suggests that this framework could serve as a potential tool for the future early landslide warning
systems. Results show that within the two study areas, the values of rates of successful estimation of slope failure locations
reached as high as 78 and 75%, while the error indices were 35 and 49%. Despite positive model performance, the SLIDE model
is limited by several assumptions including using general parameter calibration rather than in situ tests and neglecting geologic
information. Advantages and limitations of this physically based model are discussed with respect to future applications of
landslide assessment and prediction over large scales. 相似文献
12.
Prototyping an experimental early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides in Indonesia using satellite remote sensing and geospatial datasets 总被引:10,自引:2,他引:8
Zonghu Liao Yang Hong Jun Wang Hiroshi Fukuoka Kyoji Sassa Dwikorita Karnawati Faisal Fathani 《Landslides》2010,7(3):317-324
An early warning system has been developed to predict rainfall-induced shallow landslides over Java Island, Indonesia. The
prototyped early warning system integrates three major components: (1) a susceptibility mapping and hotspot identification
component based on a land surface geospatial database (topographical information, maps of soil properties, and local landslide
inventory, etc.); (2) a satellite-based precipitation monitoring system () and a precipitation forecasting model (i.e., Weather Research Forecast); and (3) a physically based, rainfall-induced landslide
prediction model SLIDE. The system utilizes the modified physical model to calculate a factor of safety that accounts for
the contribution of rainfall infiltration and partial saturation to the shear strength of the soil in topographically complex
terrains. In use, the land-surface “where” information will be integrated with the “when” rainfall triggers by the landslide
prediction model to predict potential slope failures as a function of time and location. In this system, geomorphologic data
are primarily based on 30-m Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) data, digital elevation
model (DEM), and 1-km soil maps. Precipitation forcing comes from both satellite-based, real-time National Aeronautics and
Space Administration (NASA) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), and Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model forecasts.
The system’s prediction performance has been evaluated using a local landslide inventory, and results show that the system
successfully predicted landslides in correspondence to the time of occurrence of the real landslide events. Integration of
spatially distributed remote sensing precipitation products and in-situ datasets in this prototype system enables us to further
develop a regional, early warning tool in the future for predicting rainfall-induced landslides in Indonesia. 相似文献
13.
Ali M. Rajabi Mohammad R. Mahdavifar M. Khamehchiyan V. Del Gaudio 《Natural Hazards》2011,59(2):1189-1203
Earthquake-induced landslides are responsible worldwide for significant socioeconomic losses and historically have a prominent
position in the list of natural hazards affecting the Iran plateau. As a step toward the development of tools for the assessment
and the management of this kind of hazard at regional scale, an empirical estimator of coseismic displacements along potential
sliding surfaces was obtained through a regression analysis for the Zagros region, a mountainous Iranian region subjected
to earthquake-induced landslides. This estimator, based on the Newmark’s model, allows to evaluate the expected permanent
displacement (named “Newmark displacement”) induced by seismic shaking of defined energy on potential sliding surface characterized
by a given critical acceleration. To produce regression models for Newmark
displacement estimators, a data set was constructed for different critical
acceleration values on the basis of 108 accelerometric recordings from 80 Iranian earthquakes with moment magnitudes between 3.6 and 7.
The empirical estimator has a general form, proposed by Jibson (Eng Geol 91:209–218, 2007), relating Newmark
displacement to Arias
intensity (as parameter representing the energy of the seismic forces) and to critical
acceleration (as parameter representing the dynamic shear resistance of the sliding mass). As an example of application, this relation
was employed to provide a basic document for earthquake-induced landslide hazard assessment at regional scale, according to
a method proposed by Del Gaudio et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 93:557–569, 2003), applied to the whole Iranian territory, including Zagros region. This method consists in evaluating the shear resistance
required to slopes to limit the occurrence of seismically induced failures, on the basis of the Newmark’s model. The obtained
results show that the exposure to landslide seismic induction is maximum in the Alborz Mountains region, where critical
accelerations up to ~0.1 g are required to limit the probability of seismic triggering of coherent type landslides within 10% in 50 years. 相似文献
14.
Physically based modeling approach has been widely developed in recent years for simulation of dam failure process resulting
from overtopping flow. Due to the lack of field data, there exist few applications to natural quake dams with complex erosion
mechanisms. This paper presents a physically based simulation of the failure process of the Tangjiashan Quake Dam formed as
a result of the “May 12, 2008” Wenchuan earthquake in China. The one-dimensional model adopted features as cost saving but
enables capturing the main characteristics of the failure process, where selective sediment transport and gravitational slope
collapse are accounted for. The simulated flow hydrograph and breach progression process are generally in good agreement with
the observed data. Unsteadiness and non-uniformity are found to be substantial characteristics of breach progression during
the failure process of natural quake dams. Sensitivity analysis showed that the Manning resistance coefficient and the erodibility
coefficient in Osman and Thorne’s (J Hydraul Eng 114(2):134–150, 1988) model significantly influences the flow peak discharge but has less influence on its occurrence time, while the velocity
lag coefficient associated with bed-load transport may affect the two breaching parameters substantially. 相似文献
15.
Arching is a well known phenomenon, which effects stress developments which were investigated and compared using analytical
and numerical solutions. Marston’s (1930) solution was extended to a generalised 3-dimensional rectangular stope and later modified for square and circular stopes
for comparison with FLAC results. Aubertin et al. (2003) & Li et al. (2003) models were improved significantly by placing the backfill within narrow stopes as lifts or layers in numerical modelling
where the normal stress variation with depth were found to be more realistic. The FLAC results were compared with analytical
solutions which were developed by previous researchers and modified by the authors to evaluate the arching effects in backfilled
placed in narrow and circular stopes. It appeared from the investigation herein that δ = 0.67 ϕ and K = K
o condition gives a very close match with the numerical model solutions obtained from FLAC. Many laboratory tests were conducted
to find out friction angles for four Australian mines, which were between 30 and 49 degrees. 相似文献
16.
Corrado Cencetti Andrea Fredduzzi Ivan Marchesini Mara Naccini Paolo Tacconi 《Computational Geosciences》2006,10(2):201-219
The analysis of the flood hazard related to the areas downstream of landslide dams is one of the most interesting aspects
of studying the formation and the failure of natural dams. The BREACH code [14], simulating the collapse of earthen dams, both man-made and naturally formed by a landslide, was chosen in order to analyse
the case of the Valderchia landslide (central Italy). The bed-load transport formula used in BREACH (Meyer-Peter and Muller,
modified by Smart [27]) is based on flume experiments with well-sorted sediments. Such a methodology probably makes this equation not very suitable
for describing the sediment transport peculiar to a landslide body presenting a very poor material sorting. The Schoklitsch
[26] formula was implemented into the programme as an alternative to the Smart equation. However, because the landslide deposits
may often have a strongly bimodal grain–size frequency curve, the percentile D
50 (the typical granulometric parameter requested by bed-load sediment transport formulas) can sometimes correspond to one of
the grain-size classes which are really present to a lesser degree. To consider this phenomenon, the BREACH programme (version
7/88-1) was implemented with a new procedure that calculates two granulometric curves, one for each mode of the original distribution,
and evaluates transport of the landslide material separately. Results of the analysis show that the model is very sensitive
to the bed-load equation and that the procedure implemented to consider the eventual bimodal distribution of the dam material
simulates the armouring phenomenon (which can stop the erosion of the dam during the overtopping phase). 相似文献
17.
In this study, an alternate approach to establish the e-log p relationships for clayey soils within a vertical pressure range of 10–1,000 kPa is discussed. Skempton’s compression index
equation correlating the liquid limit, w
L, and the compression index, C
c, and the reported equation correlating the void ratio at liquid limit, e
L, and the void ratio at a vertical pressure of 100 kPa, e
100, by Burland (1990), were used to establish the e-log p relationships for several reconstituted normally consolidated clayey soils. Consolidation test results of 13 clayey soils
covering a sufficiently wide range of liquid limit were selected from the literature. Also, consolidation tests were carried
out on two highly expansive soils in this study. A comparison of the experimental consolidation test results with the calculated
e-log p relationships in the current study indicated that in general, the agreements between the calculated relationships and the
experimental results are good. The agreements were found to be slightly better for soils with liquid limits less than about
70%. A comparison of the calculated e-log p relationships in the current study with that determined following methods suggested by Nagaraj and Srinivasa Murthy (1983) and Burland (1990) showed that all the three methods yielded very similar results for soils with liquid limit less than 70%. For soils with
liquid limits greater than 70%, the difference between the e-log p relationships calculated in this study and that following Burland (1990)’s method was insignificant, whereas Nagaraj and Srinivasa Murthy (1983)’s method slightly over-predicted the void ratios at larger vertical stresses. 相似文献
18.
Numerical models of atmosphere–ocean circulation are widely used to understand past climate and to project future climate change. Although the same laws of physics, chemistry, and fluid dynamics govern any general circulation model, each model’s formulations and parameterizations are different, yielding different projections. Notwithstanding, models within an ensemble will have varying degrees of similarity for different outputs of interest. Multi-model ensembles have been used to increase forecast skill by using simple or weighted averages where weights have been obtained by considering factors such as estimated model bias and consensus with other models (Giorgi and Mearns, J. Clim. 15:1141–1158, 2002, Geophys. Res. Lett. 30:1629–1632, 2003; Tebaldi et al., Geophys. Res. Lett. 31:L24213, 2004, J. Clim. 18:1524–1540, 2005). This paper considers an alternative view of multi-model ensembles. For use with the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP), multivariate statistical models are employed to characterize modes of similarity within the members of an ensemble. Specifically, we propose a spatially-correlated latent variable model which facilitates the exploration of when, where, and how regional climate models are similar, and what factors best predict observed locations of model convergence. 相似文献
19.
Modeling of layered infinite slope failure triggered by rainfall 总被引:3,自引:2,他引:1
The infinite slope is typically regarded as composed of a single-layered soil with a uniform property in various physical-based models used for modeling rainfall-induced shallow landslides. This study extends the physical-based model to consider the layered infinite slope to examine the importance of soil layer distribution for rainfall-induced shallow landslides. Hypothetical scenarios of infinite slope composed of soil layers with different thicknesses and parameters are employed to conduct this examination. The results show that pressure heads caused by rainfall infiltration are strongly related to soil layer distribution. This shows the significant influence of soil layer distribution in assessing infinite slope stability. Failure of a layered infinite slope does not necessarily occur at the impervious bottom of the hillslope soil, but may also occur at the interface between two soil layers. This result shows that a neglect of soil layer distribution could misestimate failure depth. Hence, soil layer distribution must be considered to reliably analyze infinite slope failure induced by rainfall. 相似文献
20.
三峡库区黄土坡滑坡降雨入渗模型研究 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
传统的入渗模型未考虑坡角和降雨强度对滑坡入渗过程的影响,为了更好地描述黄土坡滑坡降雨入渗过程,在Green- Ampt入渗模型的基础上推导了考虑坡体倾角和小降雨强度影响的降雨入渗模型。为了获取改进的入渗模型参数,在黄土坡滑坡1#崩滑体上进行了双环渗透试验与降雨、土的含水率和基质吸力现场监测。结果表明,黄土坡滑坡1#崩滑体饱和渗透系数为4.81×10-5 m/s;降雨时体积含水率增加,降雨停止后体积含水率降低,深部表现出一定的滞后特性;基质吸力变化趋势与体积含水率相反,降雨使其减小,降雨停止后逐渐增大。通过双环渗透试验与现场监测,获取了黄土坡滑坡降雨入渗模型参数值。将入渗模型计算值与现场监测数据进行对比,该模型计算值与现场监测数据吻合,说明该降雨入渗模型可用于黄土坡滑坡降雨入渗分析。 相似文献