近断层地震动对大型地下洞室群地震响应的影响研究

针对现行水工抗震规范中对近断层地震缺乏考虑这一实际问题,首先讨论了近断层、远场地震动的差别,对比了近断层、远场地震动对地下洞室地震响应的影响,继而提出一种新的人工合成近断层地震动时程的方法,并采用合成的近断层地震动时程对某水电站地下洞室群进行了近断层地震稳定性专门研究。结果表明：与常规地震分析中考虑的远场地震动相比,近断层脉冲型地震动的主要特征为Vmax/Amax和Dmax/Amax（Vmax、Dmax、Amax分别为速度峰值、位移峰值、加速度峰值）指标更大,且近断层脉冲型地震动的主要能量集中在1 Hz以下的频段;在相同峰值加速度幅值、相同反应谱的前提下,近断层地震动对高边墙、大跨度地下工程的破坏程度远比远场地震动大;较之前人的研究方法,文中提出的近断层脉冲型地震动合成方法考虑了[1/Tp, 1] Hz这一频段内的地震波信息,更具合理性;在设定的计算条件下,地下厂房洞室群有在近断层地震动作用下发生失稳的危险性,需要进一步针对近断层地震动进行专项风险性评价,以讨论是否需要增设针对性的抗震支护措施。     

近断层速度脉冲地震动引起的边坡永久位移预测模型

基于小波分析方法,从NGA数据库的3 551条地震记录中选取189条速度脉冲地震动,地震动均转换成发生最强脉冲的方向。基于Newmark方法,分析了近断层速度脉冲地震动作用引起的边坡永久位移值。结果表明：近断层速度脉冲地震动对边坡产生特殊的破坏作用,表现在滑动位移值大、滑动体破坏力强等方面;边坡永久位移值与速度脉冲地震动的峰值速度具有高度相关性,位移值较大时尤为明显。建立了基于单变量形式的峰值速度及双变量形式的峰值速度、峰值加速度两种边坡永久位移预测模型,模型简单实用,与回归数据具有很好的相关性,前者更适用于预测对实际工程影响较大的永久位移值,且离散性较小。提出的预测模型为考虑近断层地震动速度脉冲特性影响的边坡永久位移值的概率地震灾害分析提供了基础。     

基于间接边界元法的近断层沉积谷地地震动模拟

将间接边界元方法拓展到近断层复杂场地地震动模拟求解,通过建立有限断层二维运动学模型,量化分析了走滑型断层逐次破裂错动下近场沉积谷地地震动放大效应。首先,将断层上、下盘以及沉积谷地分为不同的计算域;其次,在频域内通过利用不同交界面的应力、位移边界条件来建立边界积分方程,离散求解得到虚拟荷载密度,进而得到频域内场地的地震反应,时域结果由傅里叶变换得到;然后,通过与解析解对比验证了该方法的准确性;最后,分析了近断层沉积谷地地震动放大规律;研究了断层上界埋深、断层倾角、沉积谷地断层距以及断层单元的破裂速度等参数变化对场地地震反应的影响。结果表明:沉积谷地对近断层地震动幅值具有明显的放大效应,所分析模型加速度反应谱峰值可放大4.64倍;在沉积谷地内部,地震动持时明显延长,同时会出现幅值更大的长周期速度大脉冲;近断层地震动震害具有典型的集中效应,断层距增大10 km,半空间地表位移衰减大于50%。为近断层复杂场地地震动模拟提供了一种新的有效方法,对近断层复杂场地地震区划和工程结构抗震设计具有重要意义。     

场地条件对地震动和震害影响的研究进展与建议

场地条件对地震动和震害有重要影响。本文简要回顾了场地条件对地震动和震害影响的研究历史,总结和评述了这一领域的研究进展。重点对地形地貌、岩土类型、覆盖层厚度、土层结构、地下水、岩土动力性质及物理地质现象等对地震动和震害的影响进行了总结和评述。提炼和概括了目前场地条件对地震动和震害影响研究中比较一致的几点认识。在此基础上,提出了这一领域当前应进一步研究的问题,主要包括地震现场资料调查、局部地形几何尺度、场地分类、覆盖层安全厚度界限、近断层地震动参数分布规律、活断层避让距离,以及强震资料积累等关键问题。     

利用爆炸震源资料获得三分量旋转地震动

三分量旋转地震动是目前地球物理研究重点之一.利用爆炸震源的平动地震仪观测资料,通过间接计算获得三分量旋转地震动.利用了3炮500 kg炸药的观测资料,3个爆炸点到观测台阵的距离分别是1.8、2.8和8.9 km,计算得到了台阵相对于这3个爆炸点的旋转地震动,其最大峰值旋转角速度分别是41.65、21.98和0.29 μrads/s,与国际同行的旋转地震动结果量级接近.地震动峰值随震中距的衰减是地震工程中关注的问题.提取出三分量的旋转角速度峰值,利用指数函数对三分量的峰值进行拟合,初步得到三分量的旋转地震动角速度峰值随震中距的衰减关系.衰减曲线的主要特征是,1~3 km旋转角速度能量迅速衰减,大于5 km以后衰减逐渐减慢,随着震中距增大曲线的变化越来越趋于平缓.      

沉积盆地构造核心理论和关键技术方法:前沿与发展方向

系统分析前人在沉积盆地构造研究的基础上,论文总结了沉积盆地构造核心理论和关键技术方法的前沿与发展方向。沉积盆地构造核心理论包括盆地分类理论、成盆机制理论、变形定量分析理论和盆地充填过程理论。盆地分类理论是依据不同分类标准建立盆地分类方案,其发展趋势是基于资源与构造背景的原型盆地分类和基于盆地演化的叠合盆地分类;成盆机制理论是定量模拟不同作用机制下(纯热机制、构造作用、负载作用)盆地沉降过程及其控制因素,其发展趋势是三维成盆动力学模拟;变形定量分析理论包括断层相关褶皱理论、临界楔理论和盐构造理论,其发展趋势是三维构造建模与三维定量变形分析;盆地充填过程理论主要开展不同构造成因盆地的充填过程对比与盆山过程的源-汇分析,其发展趋势是多元源-汇分析与定量化盆地分析。沉积盆地构造关键前沿技术包括三维构造建模技术、构造物理模拟与数值模拟技术和基于三维构造恢复的裂缝预测技术。构造物理模拟技术包括了基于工业CT扫描成像物理模拟技术:可以无损动态监测构造带内部变形演化过程,精确构建变形带三维空间展布形态;基于PIV的有限应变分析的物理模拟技术:可以定量分析变形的演化过程,直观展示应变分布特征,探讨构造应变动态分布规律;基于超重力离心机的构造物理模拟技术:可以模拟不同尺度构造流变过程,探讨岩石圈浅层脆性变形与深层韧性流变之间的动力学机制。     

中国极地冰盖数值模拟研究进展北大核心CSCD

冰盖数值模拟是一种基于多源观测数据,通过构建并求解冰流动力学方程组,理解冰流运动物理机制以及诊断和预估其演化过程的方法,目前已被广泛应用于冰盖变化研究。本文简要介绍了极地冰盖数值模拟方法,归纳综述了近十余年我国学者在极地冰盖数值模拟方面的研究进展,厘清我国在冰盖数值模拟领域遇到的瓶颈和关键问题。阐述了如何与我国的极地冰盖科考优势区域深度结合,协同多源强化观测和数值模拟,研发和改进冰盖模式,提高冰盖模拟能力,对定量估算极地冰盖的物质平衡及其对未来海平面上升的影响做出实质贡献。通过逐步发展冰盖模式的研究能力,有望将来在冰盖关键动力过程和机制的科学认识上有所突破。     

基于高频温度与表面更新理论的蒸散发观测新方法研究进展

精准的蒸散发观测是解释和理解水与能量交换过程及其机理的重要途经，亦可为蒸散发遥感产品验证提供数据支持。基于表面更新理论的高频温度法对蒸散发物理过程的描述，不同于经典的涡动相关法，是一种新兴的蒸散发观测手段，其观测精度媲美涡动相关系统，且高频温度观测系统成本较低（低于波文比系统），在欧美等地获得推广应用。通过梳理高频温度法理论基础与国外近30年的研究进展，结合国内初步观测与研究成果，探讨了高频温度法应用中面临的问题与挑战，为推动国内蒸散发观测方法多源化并从多角度理解蒸散发过程及其机理提供方法支撑。     

流域生态水文过程模拟研究进展

生态水文学作为生态学和水文学的交叉学科,得到了相关研究者的广泛关注,并成为水文水资源研究领域中的一个热点,生态水文过程主要包括水文过程、生态过程以及二者之间相互作用的过程。从生态水文学内涵的角度,对山地、湿地、干旱区生态水文过程模拟以及流域集成模拟进展做了阐述,并分析建模的策略和统计了部分生态水文模型,考虑了建模过程中的尺度、数据、精度3个关键问题。并对生态水文模拟发展趋势做了展望,指出在未来的研究中应更多的关注以下几个方面:①生态水文过程模拟建模基础研究;②生态水文过程集成模拟研究;③基于数据库和GIS/RS技术的生态水文过程耦合模拟研究;④与原型观测相结合的生态水文过程模拟研究。建立符合我国实情的生态水文模型,是现阶段我国生态水文学研究的重要任务。     

基于FLAC 3D对桩体置换模型沉降变形的进一步探讨

基于FLAC 3D再一次对桩体置换模型进行数值分析,并与PLAXIS 3D模拟的沉降变形结果、结构封顶时实际沉降观测结果进行比较,进一步验证了桩体置换模型的可靠性。同时,对比FLAC 3D建模过程与PLAXIS 3D建模过程的特点和优势,为以后在实际案例建模分析前,结合工程自身特点选取岩土工程数值软件提供一定依据。     

Strong ground motion estimation in the Sea of Marmara region (Turkey) based on a scenario earthquake

We perform a broadband frequency bedrock strong ground motion simulation in the Marmara Sea region (Turkey), based on several fault rupture scenarios and a source asperity model. The technique combines a deterministic simulation of seismic wave propagation at low frequencies with a semi-stochastic procedure for the high frequencies. To model the high frequencies, we applied a frequency-dependent radiation pattern model, which efficiently removes the effective dependence of the pattern coefficient on the azimuth and take-off angle as the frequency increases. The earthquake scenarios considered consist of the rupture of the closest segments of the North Anatolian Fault System to the city of Istanbul. Our scenario earthquakes involve the rupture of the entire North Anatolian Fault beneath the Sea of Marmara, namely the combined rupture of the Central Marmara Fault and North Boundary Fault segments. We defined three fault rupture scenarios based on the location of the hypocenter, selecting a preferred hypocentral location near a fault bend for each case. We analysed the effect of location of the asperity, within the Central Marmara Fault, on the subsequent ground motion, as well as the influence of anelasticity on the high-frequency attenuation characteristics. The fault and asperity parameters for each scenario were determined from empirical scalings and from results of kinematic and dynamic models of fault rupture. We calculated the resulting time series and spectra for ground motion at Istanbul and evaluated the sensitivity of the predictions to choice of model parameters. The location of the hypocenter is thus shown to be a critical parameter for determining the worst scenario earthquake at Istanbul. We also found that anelasticity has a significant effect on the regional attenuation of peak ground accelerations. Our simulated ground motions result in large values of acceleration response spectra at long periods, which could be critical for building damage at Istanbul during an actual earthquake.     

Generation of stochastic earthquake ground motion in western Saudi Arabia as a first step in development of regional ground motion prediction model

Earthquake ground motion model is an essential part of seismic hazard assessment. The model consists in several empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) that are considered to be applicable to the given region. When the recorded ground motion data are scarce, numerical modeling of ground motion based on available seismological information is widely used. We describe results of stochastic simulation of ground motion acceleration records for western Saudi Arabia. The simulation was performed using the finite fault model and considering peak ground acceleration and amplitudes of spectral acceleration at natural frequencies 0.2 and 1.0 s. Based on the parameters of the input seismological model that were accepted in similar previous studies, we analyze influence of variations in the source factor (stress drop) and in the local attenuation and amplification factors (kappa value, crustal amplification). These characteristics of the model are considered as the major contributors to the ground motion variability. The results of our work show that distribution of simulated ground motion parameters versus magnitude and distance reveals an agreement with the GMPEs recently used in seismic hazard assessment for the region. Collection of credible information about seismic source, propagation path, and site attenuation parameters using the regional ground motion database would allow constraining the seismological model and developing regional GMPEs. The stochastic simulation based on regional seismological model may be applied for generation of ground motion time histories used for development of analytical fragility curves for typical constructions in the region.     

The SISMA prototype system: integrating Geophysical Modeling and Earth Observation for time-dependent seismic hazard assessment

An innovative approach to seismic hazard assessment is illustrated that, based on the available knowledge of the physical properties of the Earth structure and of seismic sources, on geodetic observations, as well as on the geophysical forward modeling, allows for a time-dependent definition of the seismic input. According to the proposed approach, a fully formalized system integrating Earth Observation data and new advanced methods in seismological and geophysical data analysis is currently under development in the framework of the Pilot Project SISMA, funded by the Italian Space Agency. The synergic use of geodetic Earth Observation data (EO) and Geophysical Forward Modeling deformation maps at the national scale complements the space- and time-dependent information provided by real-time monitoring of seismic flow (performed by means of the earthquake prediction algorithms CN and M8S) and permits the identification and routine updating of alerted areas. At the local spatial scale (tens of km) of the seismogenic nodes identified by pattern-recognition analysis, both GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) and SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) techniques, coupled with expressly developed models for interseismic phase, allow us to retrieve the deformation style and stress evolution within the seismogenic areas. The displacement fields obtained from EO data provide the input for the geophysical modeling, which eventually permits to indicate whether a specific fault is in a “critical state.” The scenarios of expected ground motion (shakemaps) associated with the alerted areas are then defined by means of full waveforms modeling, based on the possibility to compute synthetic seismograms by the modal summation technique (neo-deterministic hazard assessment). In this way, a set of deterministic scenarios of ground motion, which refer to the time interval when a strong event is likely to occur within the alerted area, can be defined both at national and at local scale. The considered integrated approach opens new routes in understanding the dynamics of fault zones as well as in modeling the expected ground motion. The SISMA system, in fact, provides tools for establishing warning criteria based on deterministic and rigorous forward geophysical models and hence allows for a well-controlled real-time prospective testing and validation of the proposed methodology over the Italian territory. The proposed approach complements the traditional probabilistic approach for seismic hazard estimates, since it supplies routinely updated information useful in assigning priorities for timely mitigation actions and hence it is particularly relevant to Civil Defense purposes.     

地震超剪切破裂研究现状

地震断层的破裂速度是地球物理学和地震学研究中重要的一个参数,以往的相关研究多是基于或者关注于断层破裂速度小于或接近于剪切波速时的情况,但是随着宽频带地震学的发展,在实际地震中已经观测到了一些超剪切波破裂速度的地震.为了解地震超剪切破裂相关研究的现状和发展趋势,基于大量相关研究文献,从地震超剪切破裂的概念、断层的极限破裂...     

Strong ground motion modelling of causative fault for the 2002 Avaj earthquake, Iran

The suitability of a very fast method for obtaining synthesizing accelerograms has been demonstrated for a hybrid simulation technique of source wavelet and acceleration envelope waveform for the 2002 Avaj earthquake. This method is based on the amplitude modeled white noise and envelope waveform. The estimation of peak acceleration from a preliminary simulated record is based on using modeling parameters of rupture plane instead of empirical relations for peak acceleration. Based on comparison between observed and simulated strong ground motion data, a fair agreement is observed between simulated and observed records up to distances 40 km for peak acceleration and duration. The most important feature of the recorded strong motion is decay up to a distance of 40 km which is due to direct upgoing shear waves. At distance of 50 to 60 km peak acceleration increase, which is due to postcritical reflection from velocity gradient in the lower crust. A flat trend is observed for peak acceleration at distance of 60 to 100 km. The simulation indicates that the rupture is started at depth of 8 km and propagated from northwest to southeast. The causative fault for the 2002 Avaj earthquake shows similar mechanism to the 1962 Buin-Zahra earthquake.     

Near-field and far-field simulation of accelerograms of Sikkim earthquake of September 18, 2011 using modified semi-empirical approach

The semi-empirical approach for modeling of strong ground motion given by Midorikawa (Tectonophysics 218:287?C295, 1993) has been modified in the present paper for component wise simulation of strong ground motion. The modified approach uses seismic moment in place of attenuation relation for scaling of acceleration envelope. Various strong motion properties like directivity effect and dependence of peak ground acceleration with respect to surface projection of source model have been studied in detail in the present work. Recently, Sikkim earthquake of magnitude 6.9 (M _w ) that occurred on September 18, 2011 has been recorded at various near-field and far-field strong motion stations. The modified semi-empirical technique has been used to confirm the location and parameters of rupture responsible for this earthquake. Strong motion record obtained from the iterative modeling of the rupture plane has been compared with available strong motion records from near as well as far-field stations in terms of root mean square error between observed and simulated records. Several possibilities of nucleation point, rupture velocity, and dip of rupture plane have been considered in the present work and records have been simulated at near-field stations. Final selection of model parameters is based on root mean square error of waveform comparison. Final model confirms southward propagating rupture. Simulations at three near-field and twelve far-field stations have been made using final model. Comparison of simulated and observed record has been made in terms of peak ground acceleration and response spectra at 5?% damping. Comparison of simulated and observed record suggests that the method is capable of simulating record which bears realistic appearance in terms of shape and strong motion parameters. Present work shows that this technique gives records which matches in a wide frequency range for Sikkim earthquake and that too from simple and easily accessible parameters of the rupture plane.     

近断层强地震动预测中的有限断层震源模型

提出了近断层强地震动预测中建立活断层上设定地震有限断层震源模型的方法和步骤.首先,根据地震地质和地震活动性调查以及地球物理勘探等资料,确定活断层的空间方位和滑动类型; 然后,根据地震定标律确定活断层的宏观震源参数; 第三,将高强体模型与k平方滑动模型相结合,产生断层破裂面上的混合滑动分布.在此基础上,预测了与1994年Northridge地震断层类型、矩震级(M_w6.7)基本一致的设定地震的有限断层震源模型.最后,将预测的有限断层震源模型与基于地震学的、使用动力学拐角频率的地震动随机合成方法相结合,预测了1994年Northridge地震近断层12个基岩台站的加速度时程,并和实际记录进行了对比.结果表明,用上述方法和步骤建立的有限断层震源模型是可行、实用的.      

油藏数值模拟中地质模型的建模流程与方法

围绕油藏数值模拟过程中三维地质模型的建模技术进行了分析与探讨,详细介绍了基于角点网格模型的建模方法,给出了相应的实现步骤。其主要流程是:首先根据断层数据构造断层模型,在断层模型的基础上构建骨架模型;然后在骨架模型约束下采用地层恢复技术实现含断层的地层模型;最后基于结构模型插值物性参数完成属性模型。以塔河油田缝洞型油藏为例,对建模流程和技术的可行性进行验证,结果表明,其建模结果与专业地质建模软件Petrel相符。     

中国冻胀研究进展

中国的冻胀研究从５０年代末期开始，经科研单位、勘察设计院和大专院校冻土工作者近４０年的努力，通过现场观察、原位测试、室内试验和计算机模拟等多种手段，开展了冻胀量、冻胀力、冻胀机理、冻胀预报和各类工程防冻胀措施研究，取得了丰硕成果。提出了冻土工程分类、冻胀量和冻胀力的设计值和估算方法，以及各类工程防冻胀破坏的行之有效的方法。目前，研究工作正朝着从表象到机理、从宏观到微观的方向深化。进一步研究多孔介质中热质迁移的物理过程，特别是水分迁移的驱动力与温度或温度梯度间的相互关系，提出能反映过程物理本质且简便的冻胀预报模式及研制出对冻胀不敏感的新材料应成为今后工作的重点。     

Near-fault strong motion complexity of the 2000 Tottori earthquake (Japan) from a broadband source asperity model

The October 6/2000 Tottori earthquake that occurred in central Japan was an intermediate size strike-slip event that produced a very large number of near field strong motion recordings. The large amount of recorded data provides a unique opportunity for investigating a source asperity model of the Tottori earthquake that, combined with a hybrid strong motion simulation technique, is able to reproduce the observed broadband frequency near-fault ground motion.

We investigated the optimum source asperity parameters of the Tottori earthquake, by applying a Genetic Algorithm (GA) inversion scheme to optimise the fitting between simulated and observed response spectra and Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) values. We constrained the initial model of our inversion by using the heterogeneous slip distribution obtained from a kinematic inversion of the source of previous studies. We used all the observed near-fault ground motions (−100 m) from the borehole strong motion network of Japan (KiK-Net), which are little affected by surficial geology (site effects).

The calculation of broadband frequency strong ground motion (0.1–10 Hz) is achieved by applying a hybrid technique that combines a deterministic simulation of the wave propagation for the low frequencies and a semi-stochastic modelling approach for the high frequencies. For the simulation of the high frequencies, we introduce a frequency-dependent radiation pattern model that efficiently removes the dependence of the pattern coefficient on the azimuth and take-off angle as the frequency increases. The good agreement between the observed and simulated broadband ground motions shows that our inversion procedure is successful in estimating the optimum asperity parameters of the Tottori earthquake and provides a good test for the strong ground motion simulation technique.

The ratio of background stress drop to average asperity stress drop from our inversion is nearly 50%, in agreement with the theoretical asperity model of Das and Kostrov [Das, S., Kostrov, B.V., 1986. Fracture of a single asperity on a finite fault: a model for weak earthquakes? Earthquake Source Mechanics, AGU, pp. 91–96.], and an empirical ratio of asperities to rupture area [Seismol. Res. Lett. 70 (1999) 59–80.].

The simulated radiation pattern is very complex for epicentral distances within half the fault length, but it approaches the radiation of a double-couple point source for larger distances.

The rupture velocity and rise time have a significant influence on the Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) distribution around the fault. An increase in rupture velocity produces a similar effect on the ground motion as a reduction in rise time.