一种流动性滑坡涌浪动力学模型

滑坡涌浪是入水滑坡引起的一种次生灾害,其致灾范围远大于滑坡的运动区域,准确预测其演化过程是防治这类灾害的关键。现有预测模型多将滑体简化为刚体,而实际滑坡多表现出流态运动的特征。为更合理地描述滑体和涌浪的耦合运动,将滑体视为流态物质,在此基础上推导了滑坡与水体耦合运动的控制方程,利用有限差分法对控制方程求解,建立了一种可模拟流动性滑坡涌浪演化过程的动力学模型。使用该模型对三峡库区的龚家方滑坡涌浪的演化过程进行模拟,将模拟所得河道纵截面处的最大浪高值与实测值进行对比,结果表明最大浪高值出现在滑坡的主滑动方向,且最大浪高沿纵截面两侧快速衰减,模拟结果与实测吻合。     

滑坡堰塞湖溃决风险与过程研究进展

滑坡堰塞湖是山区常见的一种自然灾害, 对其溃决风险与过程的科学认知和合理评估是应急处置的关键。外荷载作用下滑坡堰塞体的力学响应、滑坡堰塞湖渐进破坏机理与溃决洪水预测理论是滑坡堰塞湖风险评估研究领域的关键科学问题。本文围绕滑坡堰塞湖形成后的溃决风险与过程展开综述, 从定性和定量的角度分别对堰塞湖危险性评价方法进行分析总结, 从小尺度、大尺度和超重力场试验技术的角度总结了堰塞湖的溃决机理、溃决过程及其影响因素, 从数学方法的角度对堰塞湖溃决洪水预测中经验公式法、简化和精细化数值模拟方法的进展进行总结评价。然而, 国内外关于滑坡堰塞湖风险评估领域的研究仍处于起步阶段, 空-天-地一体化监测技术、堰塞湖危险性评价中的不确定性问题、堰塞体材料冲蚀特性与溃决机理、堰塞湖溃决洪水精细化模拟等将是未来的重点研究方向。本综述可为堰塞湖防灾减灾和流域水工程风险管理提供有价值的参考。     

A new high-stress undrained ring-shear apparatus and its application to the 1792 Unzen–Mayuyama megaslide in Japan

Sassa and others in the Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI), Kyoto University, developed a series of undrained ring-shear apparatus to physically simulate landslide initiation and motion, from DPRI-3 (Sassa 1992) to DPRI-7 (Sassa et al., Landslides 1(1):7–19, 2004). The maximum undrained capacities in the DPRI series ranged from 300 to 650 kPa. Sassa and others in the International Consortium on Landslides (ICL) have developed a new series of undrained ring-shear apparatus (ICL-1and ICL-2) for two projects of the International Programme on Landslides (IPL-161 and IPL-175). Both projects are supported by the Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development Program (SATREPS) of Japan. ICL-1 was developed to create a compact and transportable apparatus for practical use in Croatia; one set was donated to Croatia in 2012. ICL-2 was developed in 2012–2013 to simulate the initiation and motion of megaslides of more than 100 m in thickness. The successful undrained capacity of ICL-2 is 3 MPa. This apparatus was applied to simulate possible conditions for the initiation and motion of the 1792 Unzen–Mayuyama megaslide (volume, 3.4?×?10⁸ m³; maximum depth, 400 m) triggered by an earthquake. The megaslide and resulting tsunami killed about 15,000 people. The Unzen Restoration Office of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MLIT) of Japan systematically collected various papers and reports and published two summary leaflets: one in English in 2002 and an extended version in Japanese in 2003. Samples were taken from the source area (for initiation) and the moving area (for motion). The hazard area was estimated by the integrated landslide simulation model LS-RAPID, using parameters obtained with the ICL-2 undrained ring-shear apparatus. The estimated hazard area agrees reasonably with the landslide moving area reported in the Ministry leaflets.     

Potential Tsunami Hazard Associated with the Kerepehi Fault,Firth of Thames,New Zealand

Geophysical data have identified four submarine segments of the Kerepehi Fault, roughly bisecting a back-arc rift (Hauraki Rift). These segments have been traced through the shallow waters of the Firth of Thames, which lies at the southern end of the Hauraki Gulf, New Zealand. No historical or paleotsunami data are available to assess the tsunami hazard of these fault segments.Analysis of the fault geometry, combined with paleoseismic data for three further terrestrial segments of the Fault, suggest Most Credible Earthquake (MCE) moment magnitudes of 6.5–7.1. Due to the presence of thick deposits of soft sediment, and thesemi-confined nature of the Firth, the MCE events are considered capable of generating tsunami or tsunami-like waves. Two numerical models (finite element and finite difference), and an empirical method proposed by Abe (1995), were used to predict maximum tsunami wave heights. The numerical models also modelled the tsunami propagation.The MCE events were found not to represent a major threat to the large metropolitan centre of Auckland City (New Zealand's largest population centre). However, the waves were a threat to small coastal communities around the Firth, including the township of Thames, and 35,000 ha of low-lying land along the southern shores of the Firth of Thames.The Abe method was found to provide a quick and useful method of assessing the regional tsunami height. However, for sources in water depths < 25 m the Abe method predicted heights 2–4 times larger than the numerical models. Since the numerical models were not intended for simulating tsunami generation in such shallow water, the Abe results are probably a good guide to the maximum wave heights.     

ISPH numerical simulation of tsunami generation by submarine landslides

The present investigation focused on the numerical simulation of the gravity currents of non-Newtonian fluids by means of the incompressible smoothed particle hydrodynamics (ISPH) approach. Firstly, to solve the rheological properties of the non-Newtonian Bingham model by ISPH method, the multi-viscodensity approach has been introduced. Then, this methodology has been used to simulate the annular viscometer and landslide deformation test cases. Through simulating these test cases, the viscoplastic behavior of the non-Newtonian viscosity and propagation of tsunami waves due to underwater landslide movement have been observed. Numerical results were in good agreement with the theoretical and experimental studies and showed that this methodology can be used to investigate precisely the generation and propagation of tsunami surface waves.     

Hazard assessment of underwater landslide-generated tsunamis: a case study in the Padang region, Indonesia

Submarine landslides can generate local tsunamis with high run-ups, posing a hazard to human lives and coastal facilities. Both ancient (giant Storegga slide off Norwegian coast, 8200 B. P.) and recent (Papua New Guinea, 1998) events show high potential danger of tsunamigenic landslides and the importance of mitigation efforts. This contribution presents newly discovered landslides 70 km off Padang (Western Sumatra, Indonesia) based on recent bathymetry measurements. This highly populated city with over 750,000 inhabitants exhibits high tsunami vulnerability due to its very low elevation. We model tsunamis that might have been induced by the detected landslide events. Estimations of run-up heights extrapolated from offshore tsunami amplitudes for Padang and other locations in the northern Mentawai fore-arc basin yield maximum values of about 3 m. We also provide a systematic parametric study of landslide-induced tsunamis, which allows us to distinguish potentially dangerous scenarios for Padang. Inside the fore-arc basin, scenarios involving volumes of 0.5–25 km³ could endanger Padang. Apart from slide volume, the hazard distribution mainly depends on three landslide parameters: distance to Padang, water depth in the generation region, and slide direction.     

海底滑坡海啸的颗粒流耦合模型

海底滑坡的运动可能引发海啸,破坏离岸设施,威胁海岸带安全。国内外关于海底滑坡引发海啸的研究方兴未艾。采用Mih颗粒流模型控制具弱黏聚力的砂土滑坡运动,利用两相流模型计算岩土体-水体相互作用及RNG湍流模型控制水体运动,构建了基于颗粒流模型的海底滑坡海啸全耦合数值分析方法。通过简单水槽水下滑坡案例进行了海底滑坡海啸全过程研究。数值分析再现了变形滑体的不均一运动、密度分异流动、水滑机制和以波谷为典型特征的涌浪波等典型海底滑坡及海啸现象,这表明数值模型具有有效性。许多海域（包括中国南海北部）都存在弱黏聚力和无黏聚力的水下滑坡,该数值方法值得推广和进一步研究完善。     

Hydraulic and numerical study on the generation of a subaqueous landslide-induced tsunami along the coast

By carrying out the hydraulic experiments in a one-dimensional open channel and two-dimensional basin, we clarified the process of how a landslide on a uniform slope causes the generation of a tsunami. The effect of the interactive force that occurs between the debris flow layer and the tsunami is significant in the generation of a tsunami. The continuous flow of the debris into the water makes the wave period of the tsunami short. The present experiments apply numerical simulation using the two-layer model with shear stress models on the bottom and interface, and the results are compared. The simulated debris flow shows good agreement with the measured results and ensures the rushing process into the water. We propose that the model use a Manning coefficient of 0.01 for the smooth slope and 0.015 for the rough slope, and a horizontal viscosity of 0.01 m²/s for the landslide; an interactive force of 0.2 for each layer is recommended. The dispersion effect should be included in the numerical model for the propagation from the shore.     

Numerical modeling of the June 24, 2015, Hongyanzi landslide generated impulse waves in Three Gorges Reservoir,China

Subaerial landslides falling into confined water bodies often generate impulsive waves. Damaging landslide tsunamis in Three Gorges Reservoir, China, have struck several times in the last 15 years. On June 24, 2015, a 23?×?10⁴ m³ slope failure occurred on the east bank of the Daning River opposite Wushan Town. The sliding mass intruded into the Three Gorges Reservoir and initiated a reservoir tsunami that resulted in two deaths and significant damage to shipping facilities. A post-event survey revealed the landslide geometry and wave run-up distribution, while an eyewitness video captured most of the landslide motion. Employing these firm constraints, we applied the Tsunami Squares method to simulate the 2015 Hongyanzi landslide and tsunami. The simulation revealed that the landslide experienced a progressive failure in the first few seconds and impacted the water with a maximum velocity of ~?16 m/s. The initial wave propagated to the opposite shore in an arch shape, and the water surface reached a maximum amplitude of ~?11 m near the landslide. Wave amplitude-time curves at four points on the river cross section show that the initial wave reached Wushan town in about 50 s with an average wave velocity of ~?30 m/s. The maximum wave run-ups on the shoreline opposite the landslide are around 6 m and attenuate to less than 1 m beyond 2-km distance. The landslide simulation matches the observed geological profile and the eyewitness video, and the numerical results coincide with the observed wave run-up heights. Nearly 80% of landslide energy is lost due to frictional resistances, but the remaining fraction imparted to the tsunami carried catastrophic consequences to a large region. The numerical results emphasize the efficiency and accuracy of Tsunami Squares method for a “Quick Look” simulation of a potential landslide.     

基于物理试验的海底滑坡涌浪研究

灾难性海啸有时由海底滑坡运动造成,海底滑坡的涌浪产生过程研究是海啸研究的关键。海啸形成主要受控于滑体的几何尺寸、滑动速度、水深、滑动角度等因素。基于这些因素,文章设计并实施了水下刚性滑块正交物理实验。试验中滑块的厚长比在0.035~0.180之间,斜坡滑道的倾角在10°~16°之间,Froude数处于0.18~0.70之间。试验分析表明初始涌浪形成早于滑块停止;初始波谷（最大波谷）是在滑动最大速度时产生的,波谷位置也是速度最大时滑块的质心位置。初始涌浪波的典型特征是大的波谷与小的波峰。利用试验的输入输出数据,回归推导形成了最大波谷和最大波峰计算公式。试验分析结果深化了对海底滑坡产生海啸的认识,为海底滑坡海啸预测提供了基础和技术支撑。     

全球海啸地震震源机制解及海啸成因探讨

海啸作为五大海洋自然灾害之一,严重威胁着人类生命财产安全。近些年来,国内外学者对地震海啸进行了大量研究,主要针对海啸的生成、传播、爬高和淹没的数值模拟,以及古海啸沉积物进行研究,但是对于海啸地震震源机制的研究还比较欠缺,尤其是缺乏对震级小于6.5的海啸地震的研究。针对我国的地震海啸研究现状,强调震级小于6.5地震引发海啸的问题不容忽视。本文归纳整理了全球766次地震海啸,利用三角图分类基本法则对海啸地震震源机制解进行分类,并对其中341个发生在1976年后的海啸地震进行震源机制解分析,对其中633次海啸浪高进行统计学方法分析研究。本文认为逆冲型、正断型、走滑型和奇异型机制地震均能引发海啸,逆冲型地震引发的海啸占比最大,震级小于6.5级地震引发的海啸的浪高也有高达10 m的情况,也能产生巨大破坏性。逆冲型、正断型、奇异型地震可直接引起海底地形垂向变化,进而引发海啸,而走滑型地震引发海啸则可能有两种原因,一种是走滑型地震并非纯走滑型而是带有正断或逆冲分量从而引发海啸,另外一种是走滑型地震引发海底滑坡导致海底地形变化进而产生海啸。从海啸地震震源深度分析,能产生海啸的地震震源深度97%以上都是浅源地震,主要集中在30 km深度以内,但是也有中深源地震海啸。本文综合海啸地震的震源特点、我国地理位置以及以往海啸发生的情况,认为未来我国沿海地区威胁性的地震海啸主要集中在马尼拉海沟和台湾海峡区域,在今后海啸预警方面需要格外重视这些区域,通过建立完善海啸预警系统来减少损失。     

水库滑坡涌浪传播有限元数值模拟

库岸滑坡涌浪危害巨大,正确预测库区可能的滑坡涌浪非常重要,是工程可行性论证的重要内容之一。将浅水控制方程应用于滑坡涌浪数值模拟,控制方程采用简便且具有较高精度的两步Taylor-Galerkin方法进行求解。通过算例对数值模型的应用进行验证,结果表明,涌浪产生后将以入水点为源点迅速向四周推进并不断衰减,且随传播距离的增加浪高降幅逐渐减小。计算的涌浪高度及水位变化规律与实测资料吻合得很好,并将滑坡涌浪的沿程传播过程可视化。研究结果表明,文中方法模拟滑坡涌浪传播是有效可行的,可用于滑坡涌浪灾害的预测和防治。     

深圳“12.20”渣土场远程流化滑坡动力过程分析

文章采用DAN3D数值方法对深圳人工堆填体滑坡运动过程进行了模拟研究,探讨了深圳“12.20”滑坡远程动力成灾过程。通过研究得到以下几点结论:（1）滑坡后破坏运动主要分为两个阶段:前一阶段为滑源区内运动,体现了高孔隙水压力下滑剪切;后一阶段为在流通区和堆积区内运动,体现了高饱和度滑体流动（涌动）剪切。（2）饱水渣土滑坡远程流化运动分析中,摩擦模型适合模拟孔隙水压力作用下的滑源区渣土体的失稳下滑运动过程;宾汉姆模型适合模拟非牛顿流体饱和渣土体的流化剪切过程;摩擦-宾汉姆组合模型更适用于该类型滑坡全过程的反演运动分析。（3）深圳滑坡后破坏运动速度变化主要经历了“启动-加速-持速-减速”的运动过程,高含水渣土的固-流转化致使滑坡远程运动,并造成巨大伤亡损失。（4）模拟结果显示:堆积区平均堆积厚度为11 m,堆积范围为0.4 km 2,最大运动速度为30 m/s,最大速度发生于距滑坡后缘620 m处,堆积范围、堆积厚度和运动速度同滑坡实际值基本一致。上述研究思路和方法对城市地质中渣土滑坡灾害的危险区划和渣土场科学选址评估具有一定借鉴意义。     

Landslide and debris-flow hazard analysis and prediction using GIS in Minamata–Hougawachi area, Japan

On July 20, 2003, following a short duration of heavy rainfall, a debris-flow disaster occurred in the Minamata–Hougawachi area, Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan. This disaster was triggered by a landslide. In order to assess the landslide and debris-flow hazard potential of this mountainous region, the study of historic landslides is critical. The objective of the study is to couple 3D slope-stability analysis models and 2D numerical simulation of debris flow within a geographical information systems in order to identity the potential landslide-hazard area. Based on field observations, the failure mechanism of the past landslide is analyzed and the mechanical parameters for 3D slope-stability analysis are calculated from the historic landslide. Then, to locate potential new landslides, the studied area is divided into slope units. Based on 3D slope-stability analysis models and on Monte Carlo simulation, the spots of potential landslides are identified. Finally, we propose a depth-averaged 2D numerical model, in which the debris and water mixture is assumed to be a uniform continuous, incompressible, unsteady Newtonian fluid. The method accurately models the historic debris flow. According to the 2D numerical simulation, the results of the debris-flow model, including the potentially inundated areas, are analyzed, and potentially affected houses, river and road are mapped.     

Numerical modeling of a landslide-generated tsunami following a potential explosion of the Montserrat volcano

The explosion of the Montserrat volcano (Caribbean Sea) could trigger a major landslide and lead to the generation of a tsunami in the Caribbean Sea. In the worst case scenario, the volume of material reaching the sea has been estimated at 80 millions of cubic meters. The sliding of this mass and the generation of the associated tsunami have been simulated numerically, assuming that the debris behave like a heavy fluid flowing into the sea. The numerical model solves the 3D Navier-Stokes equations for a mixture composed of rocks and water. The generated water waves is then propagated around the coast of Montserrat by means of a shallow water model. The numerical results show that the water heights above sea level are higher than 5 meters within a radius of 5 km of the source.     

Implementation and integrated numerical modeling of a landslide early warning system: a pilot study in Colombia

Landslide early warning systems (EWS) are an important tool to reduce landslide risks, especially where the potential for structural protection measures is limited. However, design, implementation, and successful operation of a landslide EWS is complex and has not been achieved in many cases. Critical problems are uncertainties related to landslide triggering conditions, successful implementation of emergency protocols, and the response of the local population. We describe here the recent implementation of a landslide EWS for the Combeima valley in Colombia, a region particularly affected by landslide hazards. As in many other cases, an insufficient basis of data (rainfall, soil measurements, landslide event record) and related uncertainties represent a difficult complication. To be able to better assess the influence of the different EWS components, we developed a numerical model that simulates the EWS in a simplified yet integrated way. The results show that the expected landslide-induced losses depend nearly exponentially on the errors in precipitation measurements. Stochastic optimization furthermore suggests an increasing adjustment of the rainfall landslide-triggering threshold for an increasing observation error. These modeling studies are a first step toward a more generic and integrated approach that bears important potential for substantial improvements in design and operation of a landslide EWS.     

Numerical simulation of erosion and deposition at the Thailand Khao Lak coast during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

A case study was conducted for the Thailand Khao Lak coast using a forward numerical model to understand uncertainties associated with interpreting tsunami deposits and relating them to their tsunami sources. We examined possible effects of the characteristics of tsunami source, multiple waves, sediment supply and local land usages. Numerical results showed that tsunami-deposit extent and thickness could be indicative of the slip value in the source earthquake near the surveyed coastal locations, provided that the sediment supply is unlimited and all the deposits are well preserved. Deposit thickness was found to be largely controlled by the local topography and could be easily modified by backwash flows or subsequent tsunami flows. Between deposit extent and deposit thickness, using deposit extent to interpret the characteristics of a tsunami source is preferable. The changing of land usages between two tsunami events could be another important factor that can significantly alter deposit thickness. There is a need to develop inversion models based on tsunami heights and/or run-up data for studying paleotsunamis.     

Probabilistic Analysis of Tsunami Hazards*

Determining the likelihood of a disaster is a key component of any comprehensive hazard assessment. This is particularly true for tsunamis, even though most tsunami hazard assessments have in the past relied on scenario or deterministic type models. We discuss probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) from the standpoint of integrating computational methods with empirical analysis of past tsunami runup. PTHA is derived from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), with the main difference being that PTHA must account for far-field sources. The computational methods rely on numerical tsunami propagation models rather than empirical attenuation relationships as in PSHA in determining ground motions. Because a number of source parameters affect local tsunami runup height, PTHA can become complex and computationally intensive. Empirical analysis can function in one of two ways, depending on the length and completeness of the tsunami catalog. For site-specific studies where there is sufficient tsunami runup data available, hazard curves can primarily be derived from empirical analysis, with computational methods used to highlight deficiencies in the tsunami catalog. For region-wide analyses and sites where there are little to no tsunami data, a computationally based method such as Monte Carlo simulation is the primary method to establish tsunami hazards. Two case studies that describe how computational and empirical methods can be integrated are presented for Acapulco, Mexico (site-specific) and the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline (region-wide analysis). * The U.S. Government’s right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty-free license in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

砾石土层中注浆扩散参数的研究

采用注浆模拟试验与数值分析等研究方法,探讨了砾石土层中注浆的注浆量、浆液扩散半径及注浆形成的结石体抗压强度等参数预测计算模型,并设计试验对其进行了验证。试验结果表明,砾石土层中注浆的注浆量、浆液扩散半径及结石体的抗压强度等参数预测计算模型计算的注浆量、浆液扩散半径与注浆结石体抗压强度的理论值与试验实测值间虽分别有10%、5%、10%左右的差异,但均相差不大,因此,可用来预测砾石土层实际注浆工程中的注浆量、浆液扩散半径及注浆形成的结石体的抗压强度等参数。研究成果不仅可为砾石土层实际注浆工程实践提供理论支撑,还可为砾石土诱发的滑坡、泥石流等灾害的防灾减灾提供技术参考。