Strategies for addressing climate change on the industrial level: affecting factors to CO2 emissions of energy-intensive industries in China

Urban earthquake disaster prevention is regarded as an integrated systematic engineering. Urban earthquake disaster prevention system is made up of all the earthquake disaster prevention activities. The concept and composition of urban earthquake disaster prevention system periphery were presented based on system periphery theory. A seismic risk-control mechanism model of system periphery was deduced using exchange rate of periphery as a dependent variable, and an observability–controllability model of system periphery was established and crystallized in its application to the quantitative analysis of practice problem. The input sets of urban earthquake disaster prevention system are determined as the maximum earthquake magnitude happened in or around the city, the measurable earthquake frequency, population density and fixed assets density. The inside state sets of urban earthquake disaster prevention system are determined as disaster resistant ability of buildings, disaster resistant ability of lifelines and investment dynamics in disaster prevention per urban built-up area. The system output is urban seismic risk. The calculative results show the model presented in this study can analyze the influence of system periphery intensity and inside state on seismic risk and can control urban seismic risk by adjusting the parameters of system periphery, the system inside state and human influence intensity.     

Tsunami-induced scour at coastal roadways: a laboratory study

Coastal roads are lifelines for bringing emergency personnel and equipment into affected areas after tsunamis, thus careful thought should be given to how to make roadways safer from tsunamis. Scouring at roadways is the primary damage caused by tsunamis; however, tsunami-induced scouring and beach erosion are less understood compared to tsunami runup and tsunami inundation. A set of laboratory experiments are reported in this study on tsunami-induced scour at a road model situated on a sandy beach. Our experiments showed that the distance between the shoreline and a roadway, which varies with tides, was a key factor affecting the scour depth at the road. Having the coastal road at about half of the inundation distance is not the most ideal location. The depth of road embedment did not affect the scour depth in our experiments. It was also found that for typical tsunamis, the scour depth is unlikely to reach its equilibrium stage. The information reported in this study is useful for local authorities to assess potential tsunami damage of roads and to have a better plan for tsunami disaster relief.     

Forecasting the Conditional Probabilities of Natural Disasters in Canada as a Guide for Disaster Preparedness

A variety of natural disasters occur in Canada. Yet apart from simple ``return period' calculations, no apparent research seems to have made systematic use of the OCIPEP database on all natural disasters in Canada over the period of 1900 to 2000. This paper (a) describes the main characteristics of natural disasters in Canada, and (b) presents a methodology that is a first attempt to use the database to forecast conditional probabilities of each type of natural disaster. The forecast probabilities can then be used to work out the expected social costs of each type of natural disaster. The expected costs in turn suggest what kind of policy priorities are indicated for disaster preparedness. The key results of this methodology are that Hydrometeorological Disasters are increasing over time and of these, the ranking in order of priority for preparedness should be droughts, heat waves, floods and ice storms.     

Groundwater overexploitation and soil subsidence monitoring on Recife plain (Brazil)

Facing natural disasters is a priority challenge for cities, exacerbated by increases in urban population and climate change. Improving the resilience of cities is a critical need for the international community and especially for territories exposed to multiple risks, such as Chile. Although disasters are always tragic, the recovery and reconstruction post-disaster may provide a unique opportunity to prevent future suffering, enhancing the resilience of local communities. This paper presents the analysis of two Chilean reconstruction programmes applied in Mehuin and Dichato, after the earthquake and tsunami of 22 May 1960 and 27 February 2010, respectively. In both cases, reconstruction programmes were supported by the Chilean Government, but using different approaches: one focused on providing housing for people injured in the earthquake, while the other also included urban amenities and services. This article proposes an urban morphology analysis framework; in addition, it presents the assessment of the two case studies before and after a disaster, thus evaluating their resilience. By comparing urban morphology resilience pre- and post-disaster, a discussion about the effectiveness of two reconstruction approaches is presented. Finally, conclusions and recommendations to better integrate resilience into urban planning are proposed, with the aim of opening the discussion about how to make cities more resilient to natural disasters.     

论中国北方农牧交错带的生态环境建设与系统功能整合

在简要分析中国北方农牧交错带形成历史和现状的基础上,提出了北方地区生态环境建设必须从产业结构调整出发、进行系统功能整合的思路：①把人工饲草业-舍饲畜牧业摆在农牧交错带经济发展的优先位置,推行新型畜牧业经营管理模式,促进天然草场改良复壮;②发展"绿色"农林牧产品精细加工业,建立多元化产业结构;③发挥能源和矿产资源优势,合理利用水资源,限制以破坏环境为代价的产业的发展;④推广区域综合治理与生态恢复技术,加大退耕还林还草的力度;⑤山、水、路、农、林、牧统一规划,实现生态系统在景观水平上的整合。     

Utilization multi attribute decision making models for spatial prioritization and environmental decision making in new towns

This study was conducted to determine some important factors of site selection for Esfahan 4th new town-Iran, with quantification of importance index for each factor and the effect of selected criteria in determination of the prioritized location for urban development. The study followed an explanatory analytical method based on field studies, analytical hierarchy process and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution model. This means that after defining the criteria and the significant parameters using Delphi technique and filling out the questionnaires by experts in environmental sciences and urban constructions, the rate of effectiveness of each factor and also the significant criteria in site priority and environmental decision making for new towns were determined by analytical hierarchy process model and “Expert choice” software. The results revealed that among the main defined criteria (i.e. physical, biological, economical-social, political and pollution dispersion) and sub-criteria selected by the experts for location of Esfahan 4th new town, the physical criteria with a weight of 0.453 designated nearly 45 % of the importance index to itself, standing at the first priority. Accordingly, the economical-social and pollution dispersion criteria were ranked at the second and the third place with weights of 0.307 and 0.116, respectively. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution model, which is one of the methods for multi-criteria decision making, was then used to determine the best location scenario. Comparing the three proposed locations, alternative 1 was found to be more suitable as it was well-fitted to the defined criteria.     

Small business disaster recovery: a research framework

Exogenous, non-normative shocks to small businesses such as natural disasters have been understudied. Moreover, most disaster research on small businesses has focused on business recovery as a dichotomy at one point in time. However, disaster recovery for small businesses is an iterative process set in the context of individual, family/household, and community recovery over time. A new dynamic research framework for small business recovery is proposed which allows for a shared framework and vocabulary.     

Resilience to natural hazards: a geographic perspective

Resilience is increasingly used as an approach for understanding the dynamics of natural disaster systems. This article presents the origin of resilience and provides an overview of its development to date, which draws on the wide literature on ecological science, social science, social–environmental system and natural hazards. From a geographic perspective, the model of disaster resilience of “Loss–Response” of Location (DRLRL) was created and disaster resilience was defined from three dimensional mode, which focused on the spatial, temporal scale of resilience and attributes of hazard-affected bodies. A geographic approach was put forward to measure the disaster resilience, including two properties of inherent resilience and adaptive resilience and a case study was implemented in order to validate this approach. This perspective would offer greater potential in application of resilience concept, especially in the process of integrated risk management and disaster recovery.     

Using the SyNaRMa system as a disaster management tool

Natural disasters have a considerable effect in human, infrastructure and economy. In the case of a, e.g., catastrophic earthquake that happens and affects the urban environment, immediate and efficient actions are required that ensure the minimization of the damage and loss of human lives. Local and national authorities should respond in order to meet the above objective. Nowadays, one of the most appropriate tools for this purpose is the web-based geographic information systems (GIS). Such a system, named SyNaRMa (Information System for Natural Risk Management in the Mediterranean), has been developed in the frame of an INTERREG IIIB ArchiMED project (2006?C2008). The present paper aims at addressing the role of the SyNaRMa system as a tool for facilitating disaster management. It is argued that the development of a web-based GIS can assist disaster management agencies to improve the quality of their decision making and increase efficiency and effectiveness in all levels of disaster management activities. This research is primarily based on the findings of the abovementioned project that resulted in the development of an information system for natural risk management in the Mediterranean that can facilitate sharing, access and usage of spatial data in disaster management, i.e., preparedness, response and recovery activities.     

Application of remote sensing technology in emergency rescue decision about “6·17” Danba River debris flow disaster chain

On June 17, 2020, a mudslide occurred in Meilongou of Banshanmen Town, Danba County of Sichuan Province, which blocked Xiaojinchuan River and formed a barrier lake, causing heavy property losses and casualties. In order to grasp the first-hand disaster situation and assist emergency rescue and other disposals, combined with the UAV aerial photography data and post-disaster site survey and other data, the authors used the domestic high-score 2 satellite data as the main data source to carry out the emergency investigation and analytical research of emergency rescue decision about “6.17” Danba River debris flow disaster chain. The results show that the affected population is about 65,000 and the nearest emergency rescue teams are from State Grid Danba County Power Supply Company and China Unicom of Xiaojin Country. Five schools, such as Banshanmen middle school, could be used as temporary resettlement shelters. There are six mining enterprises, one important reservoir and one hydropower station affected by the disaster. The debris flow gully is NE—SE distributed, covering about 142,700 m². And the barrier lake is about 1.03 km², covering 498,000 m². The totally destroyed roadbed and road surface were about 2.1 km and there are 9 suspected disaster hidden dangers in the lower reach. Whats more, 25 residential houses and 5 bridges were damaged by the disaster. Two rescue lifelines with good post-disaster accessibility to the severely affected debris flow areas were chosen. With the help of remote sensing technology, the in-depth analysis of the pre-judgment of the affected population by the debris flow disaster chain, emergency investigation of the disaster situation and disaster damage, and the selection of emergency rescue lifelines were successfully conducted, which has great guiding significance in the emergency rescue and disaster prevention and mitigation in the mountainous areas of Southwest China with similar geological conditions.     

九寨沟地震生态敏感区评估与道路重建方案论证

九寨沟7.0级地震诱发大量地质灾害对九寨沟景区景观、生态和基础设施造成了较大破坏,景区公路沿线灾害频繁,公路受损严重,多处中断,其中五花海与熊猫海之间的老虎嘴路段因地形地质条件极其复杂,受损最为严重。在九寨沟生态极其敏感区进行恢复重建等工程活动中,仅靠地灾评估无法满足工程方案评价的需要,同时须考虑工程活动、地灾和生态之间的相互影响。本文首次结合地灾风险评估,建立了生态敏感区的生态风险评估标准,在对九寨沟老虎嘴路段联合进行地灾评估和生态风险评估的基础上,对该路段道路恢复重建方案进行了评价论证,最终确定道路恢复重建方案。     

遥感技术在“6·17”丹巴堵江泥石流灾害链灾区应急救援抢险决策中的应用

2020年6月17日,四川丹巴县半扇门镇梅龙沟发生泥石流,阻断小金川河,形成堰塞湖,造成重大财产损失与人员伤亡。为掌握第一手灾情,辅助开展应急救援,以国产高分二号卫星数据为主要数据源,结合无人机航空摄影数据和灾后现场调查等资料,开展了“6·17”丹巴堵江泥石流灾害链灾区应急调查与分析。研究认为: 灾区影响人口约6.5万人; 国网丹巴县供电公司应急救援队与小金县联通通信应急抢险救援队距离最近,半扇门中学等5所学校可作为临时安置避难场所备选; 受影响矿山企业6家、重要水库1座、水电站1座; 泥石流沟总体呈NW—SE向展布,掩没面积约14.27万m²; 堰塞湖湖面面积约1.03 km²,淹没区约49.8万m²,路基路面全毁路段约2.1 km,下游疑似灾害隐患点9处,因灾受损民居25处、桥梁5处; 优选了2条灾后通达性较好的通往泥石流重灾区的救援生命线。借助遥感技术深入分析泥石流灾害链影响人口等灾情先期研判、灾情灾损应急调查及应急救援生命通道优选,对我国西南山区类似条件地质灾害隐患点的应急抢险救援、防灾减灾工作具有重要的指导意义。     

Coupling sentiment and human mobility in natural disasters: a Twitter-based study of the 2014 South Napa Earthquake

Understanding population dynamics during natural disasters is important to build urban resilience in preparation for extreme events. Social media has emerged as an important source for disaster managers to identify dynamic polarity of sentiments over the course of disasters, to understand human mobility patterns, and to enhance decision making and disaster recovery efforts. Although there is a growing body of literature on sentiment and human mobility in disaster contexts, the spatiotemporal characteristics of sentiment and the relationship between sentiment and mobility over time have not been investigated in detail. This study therefore addresses this research gap and proposes a new lens to evaluate population dynamics during disasters by coupling sentiment and mobility. We collected 3.74 million geotagged tweets over 8 weeks to examine individuals’ sentiment and mobility before, during and after the M6.0 South Napa, California Earthquake in 2014. Our research results reveal that the average sentiment level decreases with the increasing intensity of the earthquake. We found that similar levels of sentiment tended to cluster in geographical space, and this spatial autocorrelation was significant over areas of different earthquake intensities. Moreover, we investigated the relationship between temporal dynamics of sentiment and mobility. We examined the trend and seasonality of the time series and found cointegration between the series. We included effects of the earthquake and built a segmented regression model to describe the time series finding that day-to-day changes in sentiment can either lead or lag daily changed mobility patterns. This study contributes a new lens to assess the dynamic process of disaster resilience unfolding over large spatial scales.     

A GIS model for settlement suitability regarding disaster mitigation, a case study in Bolu Turkey

A GIS (Geographic Information Systems) model was developed for Bolu Province in Turkey primarily for earthquake disaster mitigation purposes. The model served as the basis for investigating earthquake disaster vulnerability of existing settlements and identifying areas for new settlements in the Bolu Provincial Center and its counties. The set of criteria investigated in the GIS model was the following: distance from the main fault, ground acceleration, geologic basement type and terrain slope. Based on these criteria, a settlement suitability map was created, which classified the province into low, medium and high settlement suitable areas. This map was then augmented with other criteria for refinement purposes. These included the land use capability classes map of the province, the contemporary land use map derived from satellite images and the historical and contemporary earthquake occurrences within the region. Finally, the road network of the province derived from satellite images was overlaid on the settlement suitability map so that the provincial administrators could leave an evacuation zone of 200 m around the roads. This settlement suitability map is also intended to assist provincial administrators in making plans for reinforcement of existing settlements in low settlement suitable regions and opening new areas for urbanization and industrialization in high settlement suitable regions.     

Determination of earthquake-risky areas in Yalova City Center (Marmara region,Turkey) using GIS-based multicriteria decision-making techniques (analytical hierarchy process and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution)

Disaster mitigation as a pre-disaster measure within the scope of disaster risk management is significant in the sense of reducing the adverse effects of earthquakes in the context of earthquake-sensitive risk planning. In the urban planning context, the existence of numerous decision makers and alternatives, which are depending on many criteria, makes decision-making process difficult. This difficulty was overcomed through geographical information systems (GIS). In the context of GIS-based multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) analysis, we used analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) to determine earthquake-risky areas in Yalova City Center. First, AHP analysis related to geological and superstructure/infrastructure criteria was conducted and two separate AHP maps were obtained. Then, we conducted TOPSIS analysis to consider both criteria in the sense of earthquake risk-sensitive planning. Then, overall earthquake risk map obtained which could be used as an input for disaster mitigation processes.

     

Beyond Modelling: Linking Models with GIS for Flood Risk Management

Spatially explicit hydrodynamic flood models can play animportant role in natural hazard risk reduction. A key element of these models that make them suitable for riskreduction is the ability to provide time-series inundation information about the onset, duration and passingof a hazard event. Such information can be critical for landuse planning, for mapping evacuation egress routes,and for locating suitable emergency shelters to name only a few risk treatments. This research contends that abarrier to effective risk reduction is providing disaster managers with access to model results in a structured andflexible framework that allows consequences of different hazard scenarios to be assessed and mapped. Toaddress these limitations, a framework has been developed that links a commercial relational databasemanagement system with a GIS-based decision support system. The framework utilises industry standard dataexchange protocols and results in efficient time-series hazard data management. A case study based in Cairns,in far-north coastal Australia is presented to illustrate how the system has been developed. Results show that theframework reduces data volumes significantly, while making pre-run modelled inundation results rapidly accessibleto disaster managers. Of note is the ability of the framework to present results in terms of risk to buildings,roads and other spatial features in urban regions, and to provide answers to relatively complex risk questions.     

An ecosystem-based composite spatial model for floodplain vulnerability assessment: a case study of Artigas,Uruguay

Floods are natural processes that constitute a hazard to society when associated to improper land use. Anthropic activities in floodplains are a factor of vulnerability that converts a natural hazard into a threat factor, eventually leading to disaster. Nowadays, natural and social complex processes demand integrated assessments in order to improve their understanding, helping decision making over sustainable use of territory, as well as integrating society’s activity in ecosystems and potentials, restrictions and benefits that society obtain from them. In this context, the objective of this work was to build a composite vulnerability model for a floodplain under urban influence, using an integrated assessment approach. This model was based on three dimensions; threat, fragility and an ecosystem services provision. These dimensions were calculated using both primary and secondary information, and weights by specialists. Main results show that the area presents high vulnerability with an increasing gradient towards high and urbanized areas, associated with an important number and relevant ecosystem services. Also, a spatial heterogeneity of the three dimensions emerged, making evident this area’s complexity and the need of integrated assessments to approach it. The composite vulnerability model proposed presents an elevated potential for natural and social processes analysis in floodplains, which is crucial for these territory management. Moreover, these integrated dimensions could contribute to decision making in different levels, as well as generating important supplies for environmental management and land planning.

     

The influence of context on lifeline behavior: Local policies under wind storm and earthquake scenarios

Local policies can play an important role in establishing a context that shapes vulnerability and influences subsequent recovery of lifelines under the natural hazards of extreme wind and seismic events. External factors, such as access availability, have long been known to influence the rate of restoration of utility systems following blackouts. Thus, since system performance takes place within a socio-technical-political context, it can be anticipated that selected local policies may also influence either the geographic extent of damage or the rate of restoration or both. This project empirically validates the assumption that selected local non-design policies establish a context that significantly (measurably) influences system functionality in terms of spatial extent and duration of outage.     

Assessment of provincial social vulnerability to natural disasters in China

Assessment of social vulnerability has been recognized as a critical step to understand natural hazard risks and to enhance effective response capabilities. Although significant achievements have been made in social vulnerability researches, little is know about the comprehensive profile of regional social vulnerability in China. In this study, the social vulnerability to natural hazards was firstly divided into socioeconomic and built environmental vulnerability. Then, using factor analysis, we identified the dominant factors that influence the provincial social vulnerability in China to natural hazards based on the socioeconomic and built environmental variables in 2000 and 2010 and explored the spatial patterns of social vulnerability. The results indicated that the provincial social vulnerability in China showed significant regional differences. The social vulnerability in the southeastern and eastern regions of China was greater than its northern and central parts over the past decade. Economic status, rural (proportion of agricultural population and percentage of workers employed in primary industries), urbanization, and age structure (children) were the dominant driving forces of variations in provincial socioeconomic vulnerability in two studied years, while lifelines and housing age could explain most of changes in built environmental vulnerability in 2000 and 2010. There were no statistically significant correlations between social vulnerability and disaster losses (p > 0.05), indicating the impact of disasters was also related to the intensity of hazards and exposure. Disaster relief funds allocated to each province of China depended more on its disaster severity than the regional integrated social vulnerability over the past decade. These findings would provide a scientific base for the policy making and implementation of disaster prevention and mitigation in China.     

Forecasting flood disasters using an accelerated genetic algorithm: Examples of two case studies for China

This article discusses a rescaled range analysis model, titled AGA-R/S, that is based on an accelerated genetic algorithm. The parameter a, Hurst index of rescaled range analysis, and the recurrent time of disaster in the next time-period, were directly computed using an accelerated genetic algorithm developed by the authors. As case studies, using the AGA-R/S model, a forecast was made of the tendency for change in a time series of annual precipitation for the city of Jinhua, China. The model also forecast flooding-disaster in the city of Wuzhou, China. Results indicate that it is a relatively efficient technique to forecast the change-tendency of flood and disaster time series using the AGA-R/S model. When time series is utilized, forecasted error of the AGA-R/S model is less than with a linear least square method. The Hurst indexes of the two cities are from 0.23 to 0.24, which indicates that these time series are fractal and relatively long-term. Their fractional Brownian motion shows anti-persistence. AGA-R/S has application in forecasting the change-tendency of other natural disaster for specific time series.