Determining the source of dust storms with use of coupling WRF and HYSPLIT models: A case study of Yazd province in central desert of Iran

Dust storm, which has a significant impact on regional air quality, is one of the most hazardous meteorological phenomena in the arid areas. Yazd province is one of the arid areas in Iran that is exposed to dust storms. In this study, two cases of dust storms of Yazd province are studied with the use of coupling numerical models and aerosol optical depth (AOD) from MODIS data. We investigated synoptic condition of such dust storms that were formed downstream of upper level through in the area by focusing on two storms, on May 24 and 25, 2014. For this purpose, a dynamic coupling of this case is done using WRF output the HYSPLIT model. This model was implemented to investigate the sources of the dust storms by calculating the back trajectories from the receptor sites. The trajectories indicated that the first and the second case storms occurred in the northeast and the south of Yazd respectively. These results also showed a good agreement with MODIS aerosol optical depth data and HYSPLIT back trajectories paths.     

河西走廊夏季强沙尘暴数值模拟试验

影响我国的沙尘暴灾害性天气多发生在春季,很少在夏季发生。文章利用我国科学家自主研发的GRAPES-DAM沙尘气溶胶模式对2005年7月一次罕见的影响河西走廊地区的群发性强沙尘暴进行了数值模拟,对夏季小概率强沙尘暴灾害天气的可预报性进行了个例研究。试验结果表明:模式对此次过程的地面大风、沙尘暴的范围、移动等均能做出较好的模拟;对于夏季群发性强沙尘暴过程,基于数值预报方法的沙尘气溶胶模式在天气模式预报准确的条件下,可以对这种小概率事件做出有应用意义的预报结果。     

Study and Simulation of Severe Dust Storms in the West and Southwest of Iran

In recent decades, the number of dust events has increased significantly in the west and southwest of Iran. In this research, a survey on the dust events during the period 1990–2013 is carried out using historical dust data collected from seven synoptic stations scattered across the west and southwest of Iran. Using statistical analysis of the observational data, two of the most severe dust storm events that occurred in the region on July 4–7, 2009 and June 17–20, 2012 were selected and analyzed synoptically. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset was used to obtain the required fields including sea level pressure, surface wind field, geopotential height at 500 hPa, and wind and vertical motion at the 850 hPa level. Moreover, weather research and forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) with two aerosol schemes, GOCART and MADE/SORGAM, were used to simulate the amount of particulate matter (PM10) and its transportation over the studied region. The initial and lateral boundary conditions of the model simulations are provided by Global Forecast System (GFS) data with the horizontal resolution of 0.5°. The calculations demonstrated that the MADE/SORGAM scheme predicted the values and trends of PM₁₀ better than GOCART. Dust plums are formed over Iraq and Syria and then transported to the west and southwest of Iran. Comparing the MODIS satellite images for July 4, 2009 and June 18, 2012 with the corresponding model output showed the good performance of WRF-Chem in simulating the spatial distribution of dust.     

The effect of the Zagros Mountains on the formation and maintenance of the Iran Anticyclone using RegCM4

Iran anticyclone is one of the main features of the summer circulation over the Middle East in the middle and upper troposphere. To examine the effect of the Zagros Mountains on the formation and maintenance of the Iran anticyclone, an experiment was conducted by Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) in an area between 22°?C44°N and 35°?C70°E with a 40?km horizontal grid spacing. The NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data set were used to provide the initial and lateral boundary conditions in a control run and in a simulation run by removing the Zagros Mountains. The result reveals that the Zagros Mountains have an important effect on the formation and maintenance of the low-level cyclonic circulation and mid-level anticyclonic circulation in summer. Examining the diabatic heating shows that the elimination of the Zagros Mountains causes a significant change in the heating values and its spatial distributions over the study area. Comparing the diabatic heating terms, the vertical advection term has the main contribution to the total heating. In the absence of the Zagros Mountains, the vertical advection and the mid-troposphere anticyclonic circulation are apparently weak and, therefore, the Iran subtropical anticyclone vanishes over the west of Iran. The study indicates that the Zagros Mountains as an elevated heat source have the main impact in the formation of a thermally driven circulation over the Middle East.     

近五年东亚夏季自然天气季节的划分及夏季特征的初步探讨

本文根据1951—1955年五年高空和地面的资料,对夏季过程进行了分析,得到下面几点结果: 1.在东亚地区的四个主要经度带上以65°,120°和140°经度带的500毫巴强西风中心的位置和强度变化,对东亚自然天气季节的划分是最良好的指标。东经65°经度带上南边低纬度强西风的消失是梅雨期开始前的征兆。东经140°经度带上强西风在北纬40°以南消失时是夏季开始的征兆。和它相关联的过程是东亚高空大槽的消失和太平洋副热带高压带北移至30°—40°纬度带间,这个期间平均是在7月13日左右,也是江南梅雨结束的时候。故梅雨是夏季以前的盛行过程,它和500毫巴强西风区或锋区是有密切的联系的。 2.东经140°经度带上500毫巴强西风在北纬30°—40°重现时,是夏季结束秋季开始的征兆,和它相关连的天气过程是在该经度带上高空大槽重新建立,地面大陆冷高压从新地岛东部向东南下达华北地区。这个时间平均是在9月5日左右。故东亚夏季的长度平均仅55日。 3.从500毫巴强西风在各经度带上出现的情况来看,一般是西部比东部消失得早,出现得迟,不如冬季那样先在上游首先建立,在春夏之交这种相反的演变,似非地形的分支可以解释的。 4.在夏季自然天气季节所出现的盛行天气过程主要是表现在太平洋副热带高压随上游气压场的不同,及其和     

天津春季沙尘天气日数变化规律及小波变换特征

根据沙尘天气标准确定了1961～2003年天津逐年的春季沙尘天气日数且形成序列，分析了春季沙尘天气的演变规律，并应用小波分析方法分析了其多时间尺度的变化特征。结果表明：天津地区春季的沙尘天气以每10年-5.9天的变化速率呈显著的下降趋势；20世纪60-70年代处于沙尘多发期，90年代最少；春季沙尘天气具有40年、4～6年和16年的明显周期。t检验结果显示，气候突变大约发生在1980年前后。     

低涡与晋中夏季暴雨

对晋中 1 974～ 2 0 0 0年 6～ 8月暴雨个例进行了分析 ,指出 70 0hPa上形成于 34～ 37°N、95～ 1 0 3°E附近的西北涡或 2 8～ 34°N、93～ 97°E附近的西南涡是晋中夏季暴雨的最原始触发机制 ,与之相配合的高低空形势不同 ,所产生的暴雨的范围不同 ,水汽输送通道和切变线位置是判断暴雨落区的重要因素。     

Synoptic analysis of sea level pressure patterns and Vertically Integrated Moisture Flux Convergence VIMFC during the occurrence of durable and pervasive rainfall in Iran

To carry out this research, interpolated data of daily rainfall from Iran’s Asfazari data base during 1/1/1979–31/12/2013 is used. The day along with pervasive rainfall considered a day that at least 50% of Iran’s territory has received more than 1 mm for at least two consecutive days. Based on mentioned thresholds, 224 days selected for statistical analysis. The sea level pressure data, zonal and meridional wind components and specific humidity with spatial resolution of 0.25*0.25 Gaussian degree in spatial domain of 10 °N to 60 °N and 15 °E to 75 °E obtained from the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) ERA-Interim for selected days. Then on the data matrix of sea level pressure, the cluster analysis by Ward linkage method done and 4 sea level pressure patterns with different configuration of synoptic systems were identified. The findings showed that in the sea level, the interaction between southern thermal low pressure systems (Arabia low pressure) with Europe and Siberia cold immigrant high pressure both by individual and integration and anticyclone circulation of Arab sea from the low level of 1000–500 hPa of troposphere have the most role on occurrence of durable and pervasive rainfall of Iran. The most Vertically Integrated Moisture Flux Convergence in the first layer of troposphere (1000–850 hPa) observed in low height regions, in the second layer of troposphere (775–700 hPa) on Zagros Mountains and in third layer of troposphere (600–500 hPa) is seen in mountains leeward of Iran. Also the results showed that the maximum rainfall cores has the most coordination with Vertically Integrated Moisture Flux Convergence (VIMFC) in the second layer of troposphere (775–700 hPa) on the Zagros heights in the southwest of Iran.     

2006年3月末河南一次沙尘暴过程的天气成因分析

利用常规观测资料、地面自动站加密观测资料以及NCEP1°×1°格点再分析资料,对2006年3月27日发生在河南省的一次沙尘暴过程的天气成因进行了分析。结果表明,这是一次冷锋南下时产生的沙尘暴天气,高空影响系统是携带冷空气东南移并发展的小槽,此短波槽最终替代了原有的东亚大槽。前期降水少导致地表干燥,河南省北部、东部的黄泛平原沙土土层为沙尘暴的发生提供了丰富的沙源。冷锋影响时,强烈的温度平流作用使得风力加大,垂直运动加强。锋生作用使冷锋导致的天气现象更为剧烈。冷锋不仅是静力不稳定能量的触发系统,锋区内还存在对称不稳定,有利于垂直运动进一步加强,将沙尘输送至高空。地面中尺度滤波表明,中尺度低压的形成和发展不仅使得湍流混合加强,同时也加剧了不稳定能量的释放。沙尘在强风、强湍流混合以及强上升气流作用下最终形成沙尘暴。     

东亚春季沙尘天气的卫星云图特征分析和分型

2001年春季,沙尘天气对我国北方地区产生了较大的影响,作者给出了卫星遥感监测到的沙尘过程的图像特征并对产生沙尘的天气系统进行了云图分型.最后得出沙尘天气主要发生在3种天气系统及相应的云系分布类型下.     

On the relationship between Indian monsoon withdrawal and Iran’s fall precipitation onset

Indian monsoon is the most prominent of the world’s monsoon systems which primarily affects synoptic patterns of India and adjacent countries such as Iran in interaction with large-scale weather systems. In this article, the relationship between the withdrawal date of the Indian monsoon and the onset of fall precipitation in Iran has been studied. Data included annual time series of withdrawal dates of the Indian monsoon prepared by the Indian Institute for Tropical Meteorology, and time series of the first date of 25 mm accumulated precipitation over Iran’s synoptic weather stations in a 10-day period which is the basis for the cultivation date. Both time series were considered in Julian calendar with the starting date on August 1. The studied period is 1960–2014 which covers 55 years of data from 36 meteorological stations in Iran. By classifying the withdrawal dates of the Indian monsoon in three stages of late, normal, and early withdrawals, its relation with the onset of fall precipitation in western, southwestern, southern, eastern, central, and northern regions of Iran was studied. Results demonstrated that in four out of the six mentioned regions, the late withdrawal of the Indian monsoon postpones the onset of fall precipitation over Iran. No significant relation was found between the onset of fall precipitation in central region of Iran and the monsoon’s withdrawal date. In the western, southwestern, southern, and eastern regions of Iran, the late monsoon delays the onset of fall’s precipitation; while in the south Caspian Sea coastal area, it causes the early onset of autumnal precipitation. The lag in onset of fall precipitation in Iran which is coordinated with the late withdrawal of monsoon is accompanied with prolonged subtropical high settling over Iran’s plateau that prevents the southward movement of polar jet frontal systems. Such conditions enhance northerly wind currents over the Caspian Sea which, in turn, increase the precipitation in Caspian coastal provinces, which has a different behavior from the overall response of Iran’s climate to the late withdrawal of monsoon. In the phase of early monsoon withdrawal, the subtropical jet is located at the 200 hPa level in 32.5° north latitude; compared with the late withdrawal date, it shows a 2° southward movement. Additionally, the 500 hPa trough is also located in the Eastern Mediterranean, and the MSL pressure anomaly is between ? 4 to ? 7 hPa. The Mediterranean trough in the late withdrawal phase is located in its central zones. It seems that the lack of significant correlation between late withdrawal date of Indian monsoon and late fall’s precipitation onset in the central region of Iran depends on three reasons:1. Lack of adequate weather stations in central region of Iran.2. Precipitation standard deviations over arid and warm regions are high.3. Central flat region of Iran without any source of humidity is located to the lee side of Zagros mountain range. So intensification or development of frontal systems is almost prohibited over there.     

我国北方区域沙尘天气的时间特征分析

将我国北方沙尘主要影响区划分为3个区（西北区、华北区、东北区）,用网格面积加权计算区域平均的方法,比较了各区沙尘天气的时间演化特征。结果表明：西北部沙尘日数的量级明显多于东北部;沙尘暴的发生有比较明显的日变化特征,各区白天较夜间更易发生沙尘暴,2区（华北区）和3区（东北区）发生沙尘暴初始时刻的峰值出现在14：00,1区（西北区）出现在15：00～16：00;2区和3区出现沙尘天气的极值在4月,而1区在4、5两个月都是极值期;春季是各区沙尘天气的多发期,1区夏季沙尘天气发生的频次也较高;各区的沙尘日数均在20世纪80年代中期前后发生了由多到少的跃变,1区和2区的突变点在1987年,3区在1983年。我国北方3个区沙尘天气的日、月、季节变化有明显的区域特征,其中1区表现得较为独特,2区和3区则比较接近。     

Spatial and Temporal Variations of Tropical Cyclones at Different Intensity Scales over the Western North Pacific from 1945 to 2005

The tropical cyclone （TC） track data provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center （JTWC） of the U.S. Navy over the western North Pacific （including the South China Sea） from 1945 to 2005 are employed to analyze the temporal and spatial variations of TCs of different intensity scales. Most of the TCs occurred between 15° and 25°N, from the northern part of the South China Sea to the eastern part of the Bashi Channel until near 140°E. Most of the severe and super typhoons occurred over waters from the eastern part of the Bashi Channel to about 140°E. The TCs in a weakening or steady state take up a weak majority in the area west of 123°E and north of 20°N; those in an intensifying or steady state are mostly found in the area east of 123°E and south of 20°N. For severe tropical storms, typhoons, severe typhoons, and super typhoons, their average decaying rates are all greater than the respective average growing rates; for tropical storms, however, the average decaying rate is smaller than the average growing rate. Generally speaking, the stronger the TC, the faster the intensification （weakening） is. The percentage of weak TCs is higher in June to August while that of strong TCs is higher in September to November. There are annual, interannual, and interdecadal variations in the observed number （every 6 h） and frequency of TCs at different intensity scales. As far as the long-term trend is concerned, the frequency and observed number of tropical storms have a significant linear increase, but the averaged intensity and number of TCs of other intensity categories do not exhibit such a significant linear trend. In E1 Nifio years, the number and percentage of super typhoons are significantly higher, while the total number of tropical storms, severe tropical storms, typhoons, and severe typhoons is significantly lower, and the mean intensity of TCs is prominently stronger; in La Nifia years, however, the opposite comes true.     

Iran's precipitation analysis using synoptic modeling of major teleconnection forces (MTF)

In this relatively unprecedented study, the effects of thirty-four leading teleconnection Patterns (indices) of atmospheric circulation- on regional-scale for the Middle East- along with precipitation over Iran have been investigated. Different types of data including teleconnection Indices from NOAA (NCEP/NCAR, BOM) and monthly precipitation data from thirty-six synoptic stations of Iran were applied. The data have been investigated with various types of statistical and synoptical methods. The results indicate that El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most effective factor and it could possibly influence the spatiotemporal variation of precipitation on all types of climate regimes in Iran. ENSO (nino3.4), The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and The Arctic oscillation (AO) are known as the first three important indices, determined by Principal component analysis (PCA) method. The research has clarified that a combination of warm phase of ENSO and a predominant Southeastern (SE) wind over the Indian Ocean can result in a significant moisture transport from the Indian Ocean to the Middle East and to Iran; a combination of cold phase of ENSO and a predominant Northwestern (NW) wind over the Indian Ocean can be followed by a widespread drought over the Middle East and Iran. The results also indicate that a combination of the first three important above-mentioned indices and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can provide a much better explanation for spatial and temporal variation of precipitation of Iran. Finally, the results of this study will enable us to present a new approach and new graphical-conceptual modeling, called "Teleconnection-Synoptic Method (TSM)"to clarify the underlying mechanism that can explain the spatial and temporal variations of global atmospheric circulation and precipitation of Iran. According to the correlation of different patterns with precipitation, the strongest relationships are related to the Scandinavia Index (SCN), Pressure Change in East Pacific (dPEPac) and Trade Wind Index at the 850 hPa (TrdWnd850), respectively.     

Variations of 500 hPa flow patterns over Iranand surrounding areas and their relationship with the climate of Iran

Summary In order to explore the spatial and temporal variations of 500 hPa flow patterns and their relationship with the climate of Iran, monthly mean geopotential heights for the region 0° E to 70° E and 20° N to 50° N, at 5 degree resolution, were analysed. The study period covered the winter months October to March during the period 1961–90. The monthly height of the 500 hPa level was averaged along each meridian from 25° N to 45° N. The height of the mean monthly pressure pattern was mapped against the study years. The results showed that the characteristics of the 500 hPa flow pattern varied over monthly and annual time scales. Principal Component Analysis, with S-mode and Varimax rotation, was also used to reduce the gridded data to 5 (6 in October) significant factors. The factor scores for each month were then correlated with monthly Z-scores of precipitation and temperature anomalies over Iran. The results showed that troughs and ridges located close to Iran had more influence on the climate of Iran. Two troughs were identified and named the Caspian and Syrian troughs. Received April 12, 2001 Revised July 24, 2001     

东亚夏季风的变化与中国降水

本文分析了1951—1980年东亚夏季风的强弱变化及其与我国降水分布的关系,发现夏季风强弱不同的时期,我国降水分布有明显差异。同时研究表明,随季风强弱的变化,相应的行星尺度环流亦发生明显改变。最后对夏季风强弱变化的可能原因进行了讨论.      

中国春季沙尘天气频数的时空变化及其与地面风压场的关系

文中利用EOF和SVD方法分析了近半个世纪中国春季沙尘天气频数的时空分布特征及其与近地面风速和海平面气压的关系。中国北方大部分地区春季沙尘天气发生频数近半个世纪呈减少趋势 ,2 0世纪 70年代末以前沙尘天气发生频数较多 ,70年代末开始逐渐减少 ,1997年降到最低值 ,同期中国近地面风速也呈减小趋势 ,两者之间存在显著相关。春季海平面气压场与中国沙尘天气的发生频数有十分密切的联系 ,海平面气压在中高纬度地区降低 ,中低纬度地区升高 ,气压梯度发生改变 ,从而引起地面风速减小 ,进一步影响到沙尘天气发生频数减少     

On large-scale transport of dust storms and anthropogenic dust-falls over east Asia observed in central Korea in 2009

Dust air pollution has been routinely monitored in central Korea for the last two decades. In 2009, there were eight typical episodes of significant dust loadings in the air: four were caused by dust storms from deserts in Mongolia and Northern China, while the remaining were typical cases of anthropogenic air pollution masses arriving from the Yellow Sea and East China. These natural dust loadings occurred with cool northwesterly airflows in the forward side of an intense anticyclone coming from Mongolia and Siberia. The mean concentrations of the four natural dustfall cases for TSP, PM10 and PM2.5 were 632, 480 and 100 μg m^?3, respectively. In contrast, the anthropogenic dust-pollution episodes occurred with the warm westerly and southwesterly airflows in the rear side of an anticyclone. This produced a favorable atmospheric and chemical condition for the build-up of anthropogenic dust air pollution in the Yellow Sea. The mean concentrations of the four anthropogenic dust loadings for TSP, PM10 and PM2.5 were 224, 187 and 137 μg m^?3, respectively. The contents of fine dust loadings of PM2.5 were comparatively high in the cases of anthropogenic air pollution. High atmospheric concentrations of fine particles in the atmosphere cause poor visibility and constitute a health hazard. Satellite observations clearly showed the movement of dust-pollution masses from Mongolia and Northern China and from the Yellow Sea and East China that caused these dust pollution episodes in Korea.     

川西南地区大暴雨气候特征分析

本文用1958～2010年53年的乐山、眉山、雅安三市大暴雨降水资料,从气候趋势、时空分布等方面分析了川西大暴雨的气候变化特征：1）53年内盆地西南的大暴雨主要分布在雅安东北、眉山西南、乐山西北部地区,在该区域形成一暴雨中心圈;2）大暴雨发生次数在洪雅、峨嵋、夹江、天全等地有减少趋势;而在雅安、青神、沐川则有增强趋势;3）雅安和乐山两地大暴雨次数历年分布有一定的同步性,眉山的大暴雨次数分布和雅、乐两地的关联不明显;4）三地大暴雨分布的主要特征形态为以雅安、名山、洪雅、峨嵋为中心区域的一致性分布为主;第二种主要分布形态为雅安和峨嵋两个中心的反相关状态.此外,对历史上两次特大暴雨的天气形势进行分析,揭示特大暴雨发生的背景和条件.