全球清洁能源发展现状与趋势分析

一次能源尤其是化石能源的大规模开发利用,导致环境破坏越来越严重,对人类生活造成了极大的负面影响,因此,清洁能源的开发利用引起全球的广泛重视,美国、日本、欧盟、中国、印度等国家或地区从20世纪开始开展清洁能源的开发利用工作.本文在前人的研究基础上,首先明确了清洁能源的概念和能源种类.其次,从投资、装机容量和消费变化等方面深入分析了全球清洁能源的发展现状,采用趋势预测法预测了未来清洁能源开发利用成本,与2019年相比,2050年聚光太阳能发电成本下降超过七成,陆上风电、海上风电、地热下降超过六成,光伏发电下降接近六成,水电上升超过一成;运用生长曲线预测模型(SGompertz曲线模型)预测了未来清洁能源需求趋势,2030年全球清洁能源需求约为30.5×108 t油当量,约占全球一次能源需求的18％;2050年全球清洁能源需求57×108 t油当量,约占全球一次能源需求的30％.最后,得出了清洁能源的利用程度和碳排放量呈负相关关系、中国处于全球清洁能源发展的领先地位和清洁能源将改变全球一次能源格局等结论.     

浅层地温能资源开发利用发展综述

能源是人类生存、经济可持续发展和社会文明进步的重要物质保证和必要推动力,是关系国家经济命脉的重要战略物资。随着全球变暖、温室效应和能源紧缺等问题的日益严重,作为清洁可再生的浅层地温能资源逐渐得到各国政府高度重视,到2010年已有43个国家开发利用这种资源。近年来我国新能源和可再生能源得到了长足的发展,可再生能源利用的技术水平有了很大提高,产业已初具规模,特别是浅层地温能的开发利用,已从20世纪90年代的起步阶段步入快速发展期,据不完全统计,目前我国浅层地温能的服务面积已近2×108m2,成为建筑节能的主力军。本文对国内外浅层地温能资源的开发利用现状进行了概括,特别是热泵技术,有助于了解和掌握浅层地温能开发利用的发展动态,对开展浅层地温能资源评价和工程建设具有重要意义。     

冰上丝绸之路与北极油气资源

油气是重要的战略资源。其中天然气作为清洁能源,它曾经是,现在是,在可预期的未来——全球碳减排、中国碳达峰情景下,仍然是最重要的能源资源。能源进口渠道的多元化一直是中国缓解能源紧张的有效措施之一。北极地区油气资源丰富且以天然气为主,已发现的油气资源中绝大多数在俄罗斯,尤其是天然气。但是俄罗斯天然气生产的油气田80%以上已经进入北极圈。2012年,中俄合作开发北极亚马尔液化天然气项目正式启动,标志着中国参与北极油气资源开发利用取得重要进展,也事实上开启了中国主导的"丝绸之路经济带建设"和俄罗斯主导的"欧亚经济联盟建设"对接合作的进程。北极地区已发现的油气资源共计3289.4亿桶油当量,其中石油605.4亿桶（84.1亿吨）油当量,仅为全球已发现石油资源的2.5%;天然气41.4万亿立方米（约合2683亿桶,372.6亿吨油当量）,占全球已发现天然气资源的15.5%。北极地区已发现的油气总资源中绝大多数在俄罗斯,俄罗斯已发现的北极油气资源合计2905亿桶油当量（403.5亿吨）,占88.3%;其中天然气约39.47万亿立方米,约合2557.9亿桶（355.3亿吨）油当量,占北极地区已发现天然气总资源的95%以上。北极待发现的油气资源量也非常可观,约占世界待发现常规石油资源的15%;天然气占世界待发现常规天然气资源的30%,其分布也主要在俄罗斯。随着全球气候变暖和能源战略博弈,俄罗斯为确保其天然气出口及财政来源,必然要加大北极油气、特别是天然气的开采和开发,并通过北极航道运到中国和其他消费国。本文在概括分析北极油气资源分布特点、俄罗斯油气资源与北极战略及北方海航道通行能力的基础上,回顾了北极亚马尔液化天然气项目诞生、发展演变及其国际博弈的背景;概括介绍了中国成功介入北极油气资源项目这一标志性事件过程,并进一步提出了中国对北极油气资源利用战略举措的建议。      

非金属矿的开发利用大有可为——参加地矿部第二届非金属地质矿产工作会议的收获和体会

非金属矿产是指金属、能源和水以外的一切工业矿物与岩石。它同金属矿产、能源资源并列成为三大矿物原料之一,是现代化建设不可缺少的重要物资基础。 当今世界,非金属矿产开发利用迅猛发展,对非金属矿产的利用已打破了以能源、金属矿占统治地位的局面,以往工业化中金属材料的“主角”地位,已逐渐让位于现代化建设中具有非凡用途的非金属矿产。与金属矿相比,非金属矿无论在发展速度上,或是产值和产量增长率上均超过金属矿产,这在工业发达国家表现尤为明显,如美国非金属矿产值比金属矿     

序

<正>非洲矿产资源丰富,与中国互补性强,中非地学合作前景必将行稳致远。全球最重要的50种矿产在非洲均有分布,约17种矿产资源储量位居全球第一。非洲54个国家和地区的GDP总量约为2.47万亿美元,约占全球GDP总量的2.89%。其中,矿业产值占其国家GDP比例超过6%的国家有24个,刚果(布)占比最高(50.00%);近10年矿业产值占其GDP的平均比例超过6%的国家有22个,其中利比亚占比最高(44.93%),矿业合作已成为众多非洲国家对外合作的重要领域。     

国家能源结构调整的战略选择——加强可再生能源开发利用

分五个方面就加快我国可再生能源开发利用作为国家能源结构调整战略选择的重要性、紧迫性、可行性进行了阐述。①实现社会的可持续发展,迫切要求调整国家能源构成体系;②可再生能源作为21世纪主导能源已显示出强大生命力。着重对太阳能、风能和海洋能开发利用的进展作了重点概括;③可再生能源开发利用的经济性。就建设费用、电价成本、占地面积、环境效益及贮能技术等方面进行了比较分析;④我国可再生能源资源及其开发利用的简要回顾;⑤加快我国可再生能源开发利用的对策建议。从提高重视程度,加强科技开发研究,大力推进产业化,统一规划,加大投入,制定优惠政策和管理政策,加强信息交流和国际合作,认真开展全民环保意识和可持续发展观的宣传教育等方面采取积极措施,尽快把我国可再生能源开发利用的水平和规模搞上去。     

宁夏银川市浅层地温能赋存条件和开发利用潜力评价

扩大浅层地温能这种可再生绿色能源的开发利用规模，对中国的节能减排和可持续发展具有重要的意义。本次通过银川市浅层地温能资源调查，查明了宁夏银川市浅层地温能蕴藏条件。本研究利用Arcgis软件使用层次分析法对研究区进行地埋管地源热泵适宜性分区，并进行浅层地温能资源潜力评价。研究认为，研究区范围无地埋管地源热泵不适宜区，适宜区面积分布最广为1 767 km²，占比为56.04%；较适宜区面积为1 386 km²，占比为43.96%；研究区地埋管地源热泵开采潜力较大，夏季开发潜力为42.7万m²/km²，冬季开发潜力为36.0万m²/km²。根据研究成果提出研究区浅层地温能资源开采和规划意见，为后续制定开发利用方案提供思路与依据。     

中国非常规水资源开发利用进展

非常规水资源开发利用已成为世界各国缓解水资源危机的重要举措之一。为深化对中国非常规水资源开发利用水平和现状的认知,更好地支撑非常规水资源开发利用管理和实践,在对不同类型非常规水资源开发利用实地调研的基础上,重点阐述非常规水资源的术语和内涵,总结非常规水资源的现状开发利用量和开发利用模式,分析非常规水资源开发利用中存在的主要问题,并针对性地提出对策建议。近年来中国加大了对非常规水资源的开发利用力度,非常规水资源开发利用量逐年上升,截至2018年底已达86.4亿m³,但在全国供水总量中的占比尚不足1.5%,开发利用中还存在体制机制不健全、规划设计不到位、工程技术有短板等问题,制约着非常规水资源开发利用的有序发展。非常规水资源开发利用涉及面广,需要社会各界的共同努力,才能迎来非常规水资源开发利用的新局面。     

中国非常规水资源开发利用进展

非常规水资源开发利用已成为世界各国缓解水资源危机的重要举措之一。为深化对中国非常规水资源开发利用水平和现状的认知,更好地支撑非常规水资源开发利用管理和实践,在对不同类型非常规水资源开发利用实地调研的基础上,重点阐述非常规水资源的术语和内涵,总结非常规水资源的现状开发利用量和开发利用模式,分析非常规水资源开发利用中存在的主要问题,并针对性地提出对策建议。近年来中国加大了对非常规水资源的开发利用力度,非常规水资源开发利用量逐年上升,截至2018年底已达86.4亿m3,但在全国供水总量中的占比尚不足1.5%,开发利用中还存在体制机制不健全、规划设计不到位、工程技术有短板等问题,制约着非常规水资源开发利用的有序发展。非常规水资源开发利用涉及面广,需要社会各界的共同努力,才能迎来非常规水资源开发利用的新局面。     

天然矿物制备太阳能复合储热材料

随着全球能源危机,低碳经济得到世界各国的提倡,可再生能源以及节能减排成为社会关注的热点。太阳能作为最清洁的可再生能源,在所有的可再生能源中,分布最广且易得。为了克服太阳能随着时间和天气的变化呈现的不稳定性和不连续性,就需要储热系统把太阳能储存起来,     

中国锌矿资源开发利用形势分析

锌是一种仅次于铜和铝的重要有色金属原材料,中国是全球第二大锌资源国,第一大消费国、生产国和进口国,锌对国民经济发展有着十分重要的意义.本文分析中国锌矿资源供需格局,目的是为了掌握国内锌矿资源开发利用现状,为未来的开发利用规划提供参考.本文采用最新数据资料,在系统梳理全球锌矿资源储量、产量、生产商以及消费等供需格局的情况下,建立3大开发利用指标,通过数学模型客观分析了中国锌矿资源形势.长期而言,全球锌矿资源将仍处于供不应求的紧缺状态,中国锌矿资源形势存在生产集中度小、锌储采比低以及锌产品进口集中度高等3大特点,从而说明中国锌资源未来形势并不乐观,需加大资源保障力度.     

黑河流域张掖段水资源承载力评价及提升对策研究

水资源是干旱区内陆河流域环境与发展的主导因素, 其承载力是评判水资源与经济社会及生态环境之间协调发展的重要依据。从承载程度和承载能力两方面构建评价指标, 对黑河流域张掖市县区尺度的水资源承载力进行评价, 结果表明： 承载程度方面, 张掖市从2015 - 2017年用水总量承载状况整体好转, 但民乐县用水总量面临超载, 各县区地下水承载状况明显改善, 地下水超采得到有效管控与治理。从2015 - 2017年, 张掖市水资源的承载状况整体上改善, 从2015年甘州区、 临泽县、 高台县、 山丹县4县区的超载转变为2017年临泽县、 高台县、 山丹县、 肃南县4县区的临界超载状况, 反映出张掖市近年来水资源开发利用的管理成效初步显现; 承载能力方面, 全市各县区2020年和2030年水资源可承载人口均小于2017年水平, 可承载的经济规模约是2017年90%; 提出了农业节水效率提升和耕地灌溉面积缩减两种未来水资源承载力提升情景, 并以此提出了张掖市水资源承载力提升的对策建议。     

浅层地热能水源井工程问题与技术研究

浅层地热能具有储量大、分布广、埋深浅、易开发等特点,是可再生新能源。在传统能源资源紧张和环境恶化形势下,大力开发利用浅层地热能对全球低碳经济和节能减排具有重要的意义。水源热泵以能量利用率高、成本低、维修方便的优势占据重要地位,其中水源井是其关键,水源井的工程质量将直接影响着系统运行、回灌和使用寿命。通过大量的调查,分析研究了目前水源井工程存在的突出问题,并在试验和实际经验基础上提出了合理的水源井工程技术。     

Development and Utilization of the World’s and China’s Bulk Mineral Resources and their Supply and Demand Situation in the Next Twenty Years

Bulk mineral resources of iron ores, copper ores, bauxite, lead ores, zinc ores and potassium salt play a pivotal role on the world’s and China’s economic development. This study analyzed and predicted their resources base and potential, development and utilization and their world’s and China’s supply and demand situation in the future 20 years. The supply and demand of these six bulk mineral products are generally balanced, with a slight surplus, which will guarantee the stability of the international mineral commodity market supply. The six mineral resources(especially iron ores and copper ores) are abundant and have a great potential, and their development and utilization scale will gradually increase. Till the end of 2014, the reserveproduction ratio of iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc ores and potassium salt was 95 years, 42 years, 100 years, 17 years, 37 years and 170 years, respectively. Except lead ores, the other five types all have reserve-production ratio exceeding 20 years, indicative of a high resources guarantee degree. If the utilization of recycled metals is counted in, the supply of the world’s six mineral products will exceed the demand in the future twenty years. In 2015–2035, the supply of iron ores, refined copper, primary aluminum, refined lead, zinc and potassium salt will exceed their demand by 0.4–0.7 billion tons(Gt), 5.0–6.0 million tons(Mt), 1.1–8.9 Mt, 1.0–2.0 Mt, 1.2–2.0 Mt and 4.8–5.6 Mt, respectively. It is predicted that there is no problem with the supply side of bulk mineral products such as iron ores, but local or structural shortage may occur because of geopolitics, monopoly control, resources nationalism and trade friction. Affected by China’s compressed industrialized development model, the demand of iron ores(crude steel), potassium salt, refined lead, refined copper, bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc will gradually reach their peak in advance. The demand peak of iron ores(crude steel) will reach around 2015, 2016 for potassium salt, 2020 for refined lead, 2021 for bauxite(primary aluminum), 2022 for refined copper and 2023 for zinc. China’s demand for iron ores(crude steel), bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc in the future 20 years will decline among the world’s demand, while that for refined copper, refined lead and potassium salt will slightly increase. The demand for bulk mineral products still remains high. In 2015–2035, China’s accumulative demand for iron ores(crude steel) will be 20.313 Gt(13.429 Gt), 0.304 Gt for refined copper, 2.466 Gt(0.616 Gt) of bauxite(primary aluminum), 0.102 Gt of refined lead, 0.138 Gt of zinc and 0.157 Gt of potassium salt, and they account for the world’s YOY(YOY) accumulative demand of 35.17%, 51.09%, 48.47%, 46.62%, 43.95% and 21.84%, respectively. This proportion is 49.40%, 102.52%, 87.44%, 105.65%, 93.62% and 106.49% of that in 2014, respectively. From the supply side of China’s bulk mineral resources, it is forecasted that the accumulative supply of primary(mine) mineral products in 2015–2035 is 4.046 Gt of iron ores, 0.591 Gt of copper,1.129 Gt of bauxite, 63.661 Mt of(mine) lead, 0.109 Gt of(mine) zinc and 0.128 Gt of potassium salt, which accounts for 8.82%, 13.92%, 26.67%, 47.09%, 33.04% and 15.56% of the world’s predicted YOY production, respectively. With the rapid increase in the smelting capacity of iron and steel and alumina, the rate of capacity utilization for crude steel, refined copper, alumina, primary aluminum and refined lead in 2014 was 72.13%, 83.63%, 74.45%, 70.76% and 72.22%, respectively. During 2000–2014, the rate of capacity utilization for China’s crude steel and refined copper showed a generally fluctuating decrease, which leads to an insufficient supply of primary mineral products. It is forecasted that the supply insufficiency of iron ores in 2015–2035 is 17.44 Gt, 0.245 Gt of copper in copper concentrates, 1.337 Gt of bauxite, 38.44 Mt of lead in lead concentrates and 29.19 Mt of zinc in zinc concentrates. China has gradually raised the utilization of recycled metals, which has mitigated the insufficient supply of primary metal products to some extent. It is forecasted that in 2015–2035 the accumulative utilization amount of steel scrap(iron ores) is 3.27 Gt(5.08 Gt), 70.312 Mt of recycled copper, 0.2 Gt of recycled aluminum, 48 Mt of recycled lead and 7.7 Mt of recycled zinc. The analysis on the supply and demand situation of China’s bulk mineral resources in 2015–2035 suggests that the supply-demand contradiction for these six types of mineral products will decrease, indicative of a generally declining external dependency. If the use of recycled metal amount is counted in, the external dependency of China’s iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc and potassium salt will be 79%, 65%, 26%, 8%, 16% and 18% in 2014, respectively. It is predicted that this external dependency will decrease to 62%, 64%, 20%,-0.93%, 16% and 14% in 2020, respectively, showing an overall decreasing trend. We propose the following suggestions correspondingly.(1) The demand peak of China’s crude steel and potassium salt will reach during 2015–2023 in succession. Mining transformation should be planned and deployed in advance to deal with the arrival of this demand peak.(2) The supply-demand contradiction of China’s bulk mineral resources will mitigate in the future 20 years, and the external dependency will decrease accordingly. It is suggested to adjust the mineral resources management policies according to different minerals and regions, and regulate the exploration and development activities.(3) China should further establish and improve the forced mechanism of resolving the smelting overcapacity of steel, refined copper, primary aluminum, lead and zinc to really achieve the goal of "reducing excess production capacity".(4) In accordance with the national strategic deployment of "One Belt One Road", China should encourage the excess capacity of steel, copper, alumina and primary aluminum enterprises to transfer to those countries or areas with abundant resources, high energy matching degree and relatively excellent infrastructure. Based on the national conditions, mining condition and geopolitics of the resources countries, we will gradually build steel, copper, aluminum and lead-zinc smelting bases, and potash processing and production bases, which will promote the excess capacity to transfer to the overseas orderly.(5) It is proposed to strengthen the planning and management of renewable resources recycling and to construct industrial base of renewable metal recycling.(6) China should promote the comprehensive development and utilization of paragenetic and associated mineral species to further improve the comprehensive utilization of bulk mineral resources.     

我国能源前景与能源科技前沿

能源资源的开发利用是关系到我国经济社会有序发展的基础。通过国内外能源消费结构分析发现,煤炭在我国一 次能源消费结构中仍占很大比重, 2030年能源消费预测煤炭的降低幅度有限,核能、水电,以及其他新能源上升幅度也有 限。本文从我国能源消费结构出发,分析我国能源资源现状与发展前景,总结能源科技前沿领域,提出能源资源各领域重 大科技问题,以加快我国能源资源开发利用步伐。     

Trends of water resource development and utilization in arid north-west China

 From an analysis of the current water resources and their development and utilization in arid north-west China, the authors conclude the extent of channelled water accounts for only 56.0% of the total, exploitable surface-water resources of arid north-west China. The utilization ratio of canal systems is 42%, and farmland use is 0.8. When the ground and surface waters of river basins in the region are comprehensively developed, the channelled water will reach its climax, accounting for 80% of the total, exploitable surface-water resources, which would constitute a 91% increase over current levels in surface-water resource development. In the future, the utilization ratio of canal system as well as the utilization ratio of farmland water will reach 0.9 with the help of scientific and technological advancements. The channelled water is the same as the comprehensive development and utilization stages, but the total water use will be increased by 247×10⁸ m³, and will reach 756.8×10⁸ m³, accounting for 88.2% of the total, exploitable surface-water resources in arid north-west China. Also, the authors suggest that the scientific and technological measures to increase the water-use ratio include improving management, strengthening protection of water resources and the environment, and increasing studies of water saving techniques. Received: 11 January 1999 · Accepted: 6 July 1999