新疆天山北坡气候变化的生态响应研究

通过近40年天山北坡气候、水文、现代冰川、湖泊观测数据和近10年卫星遥感数据, 利用遥感和GIS技术, 从地表覆被生态系统和景观尺度, 提出了一套基于遥感的干旱区生态自然变化信息提取的研究方法, 分析了近40年天山北坡气候的变化趋势和与之相应的生态响应关系. 结果表明: (1) 近40年天山北坡气候变化的总体趋势是气温和降水增加, 特别是20世纪90年代以来的近10年气温、降水与径流量增加幅度较大; (2) 近10年天山北坡各地理分区植被综合指数显著提高, 提高幅度较大的是人工绿洲区和前山带, 其变化趋势有利于植被生态的改善; (3) 干旱区植被生态对气候变化的响应非常敏感, 由于近10年天山北坡气候的变化, 其植被覆盖度和生物量持续增加, 平原区增幅明显大于山区, 后期增幅明显大于前期.     

青藏高原东北部树木年轮记录揭示的最高最低温的非对称变化

江河源区自然环境严酷, 生态系统脆弱. 近年来由于该区域日趋严重的生态环境问题使之逐渐成为全社会所广泛关注的焦点地区. 根据采自青藏高原东北部黄河源区西顷山和阿尼玛卿山的祁连园柏树轮样芯, 重建了研究区过去近425 a来冬半年的最低温和近700 a来夏半年最高温. 1578~1940年的近400 a间研究区冬半年最低温度的波动较为平缓, 但是自1941年来以来有急剧的升温趋势. 夏半年最高温在20世纪末表现出明显的升温趋势. 近425 a来最高温和最低温的变化存在非对称现象. 最高温和最低温在近425 a来的变化非常相似, 但最低温的变化比最高温的变化超前大约25 a左右. 如果在未来30 a内最高温和最低温的变化保持过去近425 a来的相关趋势, 那么在未来30 a内, 最高温也将继续剧烈升温.     

太湖流域典型中小型湖泊富营养化演变分析(1991-2010年)

通过分析太湖流域的中小型湖泊富营养化指标近20年的变化趋势,探讨流域富营养化特征的总体演变趋势.从全流域看,总氮浓度在近20年里呈稳中略降的趋势;而总磷浓度在近20年里有较明显上升趋势;作为营养物上升的直接响应指标叶绿素a呈快速上升趋势,平均值从1991年的7.0μg/L上升至2010年的27.5μg/L,20年间上升了近3倍,叶绿素a数据离散程度出现大幅上升,标准差从1991年的1.25μg/L上升至2010年的19.06μg/L,说明各湖富营养化程度的空间分异性在加大,藻华风险增加;透明度在近20年中虽有波动,但整体仍呈下降趋势.综合营养状态指数(TLIc)计算结果显示,近20年过水型湖泊淀山湖和昆承湖的TLIc指数明显高于封闭型湖泊水源地尚湖和傀儡湖.典型过水型湖泊(淀山湖)、封闭型湖泊水源地(尚湖和傀儡湖)以及典型的渔业生产型湖泊(长荡湖)的富营养化演变过程有所差异,主要受湖泊本身自然属性、污染控制强度、管理模式、功能定位等影响.     

京津冀城市群地区城镇化与生态环境近远程耦合能值代谢效率及环境压力分析

在解析城市群地区城镇化与生态环境之间近远程耦合关系的基础上,借助城市能值代谢方法,分析了1980~2014年近35年京津冀城市群地区城镇化与生态环境近远程耦合代谢效率及环境压力.结果表明:(1)近35年来京津冀城市群地区总代谢能值呈上升趋势,经历了由近程要素主导向远程要素主导的转变过程,远程要素代谢能值总量占总代谢能值的比重由1980年的30.87%上升到2014年的67.43%,能值外向度不断提高,城市群发展对远程要素的依赖程度越来越大.(2)近35年来京津冀城市群近远程要素能值代谢强度加速下降,由1980年的1.15×10~(21)Sej/亿元下降到2014年9.69×10~(19)Sej/亿元,体现出京津冀城市群经济效率不断提高;相应地人均能值量由1980年的7.8×10~(15)Sej/人增加到2014年5.83×10~(16)Sej/人,反映了京津冀城市群地区社会福利水平逐步提高.(3)近35年来京津冀城市群地区近远程要素能值代谢的环境负荷率不断提升,环境压力不断增大.近程要素能值代谢的环境负荷率由1980年的8.30上升到2014年的43.46,同期远程要素能值代谢的环境负荷率由4.15上升到92.03.本文定量解决了京津冀城市群发展对远程要素依赖程度和远程要素输入对城市群造成的环境负荷压力问题,提出的研究结论为京津冀城市群地区有效控制外来人口增长、逐步疏解北京非首都功能、优化调整经济结构、提高经济运行效率、治理环境污染和推进京津冀协同发展等提供了定量的决策参考依据.     

20世纪90年代鄱阳湖洪水特征的分析

20世纪90年代,鄱阳湖平均水位超过近50年来的任何10年,年最高水位出现近100年来的最大值,灾害性洪水年年都有,大洪水接二连三;洪水位明显偏高,大洪水显著偏多,是有水文资料记载以来典型的丰水时期;本文从水文,统计角度分析这10年里的洪水特征,探讨高水位形成的原因。     

华安汰内水氡井近震映震能力分析

通过对华安汰内观测井1987年以来的氡值资料及近震映震能力的分析,发现震前明显突跳异常的近震震中近北西向展布在福安—南靖断裂两侧,结合区域地质构造背景,探讨了这种现象发生的原因。     

用环境磁学磁化率方法研究历史地震--抚仙湖地区重要历史地震事件的检验与发现

首次将环境磁学磁化率特征方法应用于历史地震研究,阐明了云南抚仙湖沉积物磁化率突变与地震事件的相关性。所建立的时限近１０００年,对应０～１６８ｃｍ沉积物的磁化率－地震剖面与近５００年以来有记载的重大历史地震事件检验相吻合。发现距今５００～１０００年抚仙湖地区的８次未被记载的地震事件,指出发震的年代范围,对抚仙湖地区近千年的历史地震进行回溯。     

四川近震走时曲线与J—B近震走时曲线

J—B表自1904年问世以来已几十年了。它主要依据欧州,日本和北美的地震资料获得。其中近震走时表目前仍用于四川区域台网近震定位。四川地区处于青藏高原边缘地带,地壳速度模型与J—B近震表采用的模型有明显的差别,用J—B表定位有时误差很大。另一方面,J—B表本身也存在误差。     

辽宁地区近震走时与震中距间关系研究

本文通过对辽宁数字地震台网控制区内近11年的地震观测数据进行处理分析,应用最小二乘法求回归方程等一系列相关公式进行计算,最终依据辽宁地区近震走时与震中距之间关系,归纳成表。为编制辽宁地区近震走时表提供可靠的数据依据。     

中国近震震级M_L综述

本文回顾了1959年中国近震震级标度公式建立以来近震震级研究的进展。在调查分析全国三十余个地方台网(包括传输台网)M_L震级测定现状的基础上,围绕着中国近震震级的统一和标准化,较系统地论述了区域量规函数、台站校正、测定值离散度和误差、仪器影响以及测定近震震级的其他方法、中国近震震级和Richter原始M_L震级的关系等主要问题。     

SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences SUBJECT INDEX TO VOLUME 57(2014)

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Distribution of throughfall and stemflow in multi‐strata agroforestry,perennial monoculture,fallow and primary forest in central Amazonia,Brazil

The partitioning of rain water into throughfall, stemflow and interception loss when passing through plant canopies depends on properties of the respective plant species, such as leaf area and branch angles. In heterogeneous vegetation, such as tropical forest or polycultural systems, the presence of different plant species may consequently result in a mosaic of situations with respect to quantity and quality of water inputs into the soil. As these processes influence not only the water availability for the plants, but also water infiltration and nutrient leaching, the understanding of plant effects on the repartitioning of rain water may help in the optimization of land use systems and management practices. We measured throughfall and stemflow in a perennial polyculture (multi‐strata agroforestry), monocultures of peach palm (Bactris gasipaes) for fruit and for palmito, a monoculture of cupuaçu (Theobroma grandiflorum), spontaneous fallow and primary forest during one year in central Amazonia, Brazil. The effect on rain water partitioning was measured separately for four useful tree species in the polyculture and for two tree species in the primary forest. Throughfall at two stem distances, and stemflow, differed significantly between tree species, resulting in pronounced spatial patterns of water input into the soil in the polyculture system. For two tree species, peach palm for fruit (Bactris gasipaes) and Brazil nut trees (Bertholletia excelsa), the water input into the soil near the stem was significantly higher than the open‐area rainfall. This could lead to increased nutrient leaching when fertilizer is applied close to the stem of these trees. In the primary forest, such spatial patterns could also be detected, with significantly higher water input near a palm (Oenocarpus bacaba) than near a dicotyledonous tree species (Eschweilera sp.). Interception losses were 6·4% in the polyculture, 13·9 and 12·3% in the peach palm monocultures for fruit and for palmito, respectively, 0·5% in the cupuaçu monoculture and 3·1% in the fallow. With more than 20% of the open‐area rainfall, the highest stemflow contributions to the water input into the soil were measured in the palm monocultures and in the fallow. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Monte Carlo study of rainfall forecasting with a stochastic model

A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.     

Anthropogenic Eutrophication and Red Tide Outbreak in Lacustrine Systems of the Kashmir Himalaya

Red tide, a recurrent phenomenon has become conspicuous in several Kashmir lake ecosystems since 1991. The responsible organism (Euglena pedunculata), a rare flagellate rediscovered in the Kashmir Himalaya (Khan 1993) caused first and unprecedented red tide outbreak, constituting a maximum of 96% of resident numerical phytoplankton density in Dal Lake. At present, conflicting hypotheses exist on the generation of causal assemblage(s) imparting redness to waters: Jeeji Bai (1991) linked its origin to acid precipitation – a fallout of burning oil‐fields during the Gulf War – whilst Khan (1993) holds local factor(s) responsible. Field/experimental studies support the latter contention that the influx of untreated sewage, in unison with warm temperatures, high levels of PhAR, iron and interruption to hydrological flow‐pattern together with absence/or reduction in grazing activity created conducive environmental milieu for red tide outbreak. Dal Lake “red tide” drifted the bloom‐inoculum to other waters, including Lake Wular, where additional ecological niches were carved out, threatening the aesthetic value and biological diversity of Kashmir lakes. Ecological monitoring indicates frequent seasonal red tide occurrence in Dal Lake (including summer‐autumn event of 1998) which testifies its unabated eutrophication status. Further studies are needed on ecological adaptability and biogeographic distribution of this rare and unique red tide‐causing flagellate.