Solar Cycle Predictions based on Solar Activity at Different Solar Latitudes

Many methods of predictions of sunspot maximum number use data before or at the preceding sunspot minimum to correlate with the following sunspot maximum of the same cycle, which occurs a few years later. Kane and Trivedi (Solar Phys. 68, 135, 1980) found that correlations of R _z(max) (the maximum in the 12-month running means of sunspot number R _z) with R _z(min) (the minimum in the 12-month running means of sunspot number R _z) in the solar latitude belt 20° – 40°, particularly in the southern hemisphere, exceeded 0.6 and was still higher (0.86) for the narrower belt > 30° S. Recently, Javaraiah (Mon. Not. Roy. Astron. Soc. 377, L34, 2007) studied the relationship of sunspot areas at different solar latitudes and reported correlations 0.95 – 0.97 between minima and maxima of sunspot areas at low latitudes and sunspot maxima of the next cycle, and predictions could be made with an antecedence of more than 11 years. For the present study, we selected another parameter, namely, SGN, the sunspot group number (irrespective of their areas) and found that SGN(min) during a sunspot minimum year at latitudes > 30° S had a correlation +0.78±0.11 with the sunspot number R _z(max) of the same cycle. Also, the SGN during a sunspot minimum year in the latitude belt (10° – 30° N) had a correlation +0.87±0.07 with the sunspot number R _z(max) of the next cycle. We obtain an appropriate regression equation, from which our prediction for the coming cycle 24 is R _z(max )=129.7±16.3.     

Correlation of Solar Indices with Solar euv Fluxes

The paper presents a more extensive comparison of Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) irradiances during AE-E (1977–1980), Pioneer Venus (1979–1992) and SEM/SOHO (1996 onwards) with other solar indices than has been discussed previously. For long-term changes (solar cycle), all indices had similar trends and inter-correlations were high, so that any one could serve as a proxy for the other. For intermediate time-scales (monthly means), only L, F10 (2800 MHz) and Mgii had reasonably high correlations with EUV. The 2695 MHz radio emission also had a high correlation. For daily values, data for many indices are intermittant and these cannot serve as proxies. Again, only L, F10 (and 2695 MHz), Mgii stand out as possible proxies for EUV, particularly during intervals of strong 27-day sequences.     

The Solar Irradiance Spectrum at Solar Activity Minimum Between Solar Cycles 23 and 24

On 7 February 2008, the SOLAR payload was placed onboard the International Space Station. It is composed of three instruments, two spectrometers and a radiometer. The two spectrometers allow us to cover the 16?–?2900 nm spectral range. In this article, we first briefly present the instrumentation, its calibration and its performance in orbit. Second, the solar spectrum measured during the transition between Solar Cycles 23 to 24 at the time of the minimum is shown and compared with other data sets. Its accuracy is estimated as a function of wavelength and the solar atmosphere brightness-temperature is calculated and compared with those derived from two theoretical models.     

Solar Rotation Rate during Solar Activity Cycle 23

We studied the solar rotation rate and its temporal change, using the sunspot data obtained during activity cycle 23 (1996 – 2006). The equatorial rotation rate is nearly the same as in the former cycle 22, while the latitudinal gradient of differential rotation considerably increased. Comparison of our results with others indicates the existence of a long-term periodicity of about eight cycles in differential rotation. In addition, no significant asymmetry in differential rotation between the northern and southern hemispheres during cycle 23 was found. The equatorial rotation rate and the latitudinal gradient of the differential rotation in the period of cycle 23 are approximately constant, except for the initial and final phases in the cycle.     

Solar convection

The hydrodynamics of solar convection is reviewed. In particular, a discussion is given of convection on the scale of granulation; i.e., the energy carrying convection patterns in the solar surface layers, and its penetration into the stable layers of the solar photosphere. Convection on global and intermediate scales, and interaction with rotation and magnetic fields is discussed briefly.     

Solar Orbiter

The heliosphere represents a uniquely accessible domain of space, where fundamental physical processes common to solar, astrophysical and laboratory plasmas can be studied under conditions impossible to reproduce on Earth and unfeasible to observe from astronomical distances. Solar Orbiter, the first mission of ESA’s Cosmic Vision 2015?–?2025 programme, will address the central question of heliophysics: How does the Sun create and control the heliosphere? In this paper, we present the scientific goals of the mission and provide an overview of the mission implementation.     

Solar Extreme Ultraviolet Irradiance Measurements During Solar Cycle 22

The solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance, the dominant global energy source for Earth's atmosphere above 100 km, is not known accurately enough for many studies of the upper atmosphere. During the absence of direct solar EUV irradiance measurements from satellites, the solar EUV irradiance is often estimated at the 30–50% uncertainty level using both proxies of the solar irradiance and earlier solar EUV irradiance measurements, primarily from the Air Force Geophysics Laboratory (now Phillips Laboratory) rockets and Atmospheric Explorer (AE) instruments. Our sounding rocket measurements during solar cycle 22 include solar EUV irradiances below 120 nm with 0.2 nm spectral resolution, far ultraviolet (FUV) airglow spectra below 160 nm, and solar soft X-ray (XUV) images at 17.5 nm. Compared to the earlier observations, these rocket experiments provide a more accurate absolute measurement of the solar EUV irradiance, because these instruments are calibrated at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) with a radiometric uncertainty of about 8%. These more accurate sounding-rocket measurements suggest revisions of the previous reference AE–E spectra by as much as a factor of 2 at some wavelengths. Our sounding-rocket flights during the past several years (1988–1994) also provide information about solar EUV variability during solar cycle 22.     

Prediction of Solar Cycle Maximum Using Solar Cycle Lengths

If the rise time RT, fall time FT, and total time TT (i.e., RT+FT) of a solar cycle are compared against the maximum amplitude Rz(max ) for the following cycle, then only the association between TT and Rz(max ) is inferred to be well anticorrelated, inferring that the larger (smaller) the value of Rz(max ) for the following cycle, the shorter (longer) the TT of the preceding cycle. Although the inferred correlation (−0.68) is statistically significant, the inferred standard error of estimate is quite large, so predictions using the inferred correlation are not very precise. Removal of cycle pairs 15/16, 19/20, and 20/21 (statistical outliers) yields a regression that is highly statistically significant (−0.85) and reduces the standard error of estimate by 18%. On the basis of the adjusted regression and presuming TT=140 months for cycle 23, the present ongoing cycle, cycle 24’s 90% prediction interval for Rz(max ) is estimated to be about 94±44, inferring only a 5% probability that its Rz(max ) will be larger than about 140, unless of course cycle pair 23/24 is a statistical outlier.     

Solar Cycle Variation in Solar f-Mode Frequencies and Radius

Using data from the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) covering the period from 1995 to 1998, we study the change with solar activity in solar f-mode frequencies. The results are compared with similar changes detected from the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) data. We find variations in f-mode frequencies which are correlated with solar activity indices. If these changes are due to variation in solar radius then the implications are that the solar radius decreases by about 5 km from minimum to maximum activity.     

Fast Imaging Solar Spectrograph of the 1.6 Meter New Solar Telescope at Big Bear Solar Observatory

For high resolution spectral observations of the Sun – particularly its chromosphere, we have developed a dual-band echelle spectrograph named Fast Imaging Solar Spectrograph (FISS), and installed it in a vertical optical table in the Coudé Lab of the 1.6 meter New Solar Telescope at Big Bear Solar Observatory. This instrument can cover any part of the visible and near-infrared spectrum, but it usually records the Hα band and the Ca ii 8542 Å band simultaneously using two CCD cameras, producing data well suited for the study of the structure and dynamics of the chromosphere and filaments/prominences. The instrument does imaging of high quality using a fast scan of the slit across the field of view with the aid of adaptive optics. We describe its design, specifics, and performance as well as data processing     

Solar Total Irradiance: A Reference Value for Solar Minimum

Simultaneous solar total irradiance observations performed by absolute radiometers on board satellites during the quiet-Sun period between solar cycles 21 and 22 (1985–1987), are analyzed to determine the solar total irradiance at 1 AU for the solar minimum. During the quiet-Sun period the total solar irradiance, UV irradiance, and the various solar activity indices show very little fluctuation. However, the absolute value of the solar total irradiance derived from the observations differ within the accuracy of the radiometers used in the measurements. Therefore, the question often arises about a reference value of the solar total irradiance for use in climate models and for computation of geophysical, and atmospheric parameters. This research is conducted as a part of the Solar Electromagnetic Radiation Study for Solar Cycle 22 (SOLERS22). On the basis of the study we recommended a reference value of 1367.0 ± 0.04 W m^-2 for the solar total irradiance at 1 AU for a truly quiet Sun. We also find that the total solar irradiance data for the quiet-Sun period reveals strong short-term irradiance variations.     

Flattening Index of the Solar Corona and the Solar Cycle

The photometrical flattening index of the solar corona a+b is defined according to Ludendorff. In this paper we have investigated how the flattening index varies with respect to the phase of solar activity and the sunspot number. We have compiled 170 values of the flattening index using the data on 60 total solar eclipses from 1851 to 2010. We have found that the flattening index takes values from 0 to 0.4, and is anticorrelated with solar activity. The value of the flattening index at the beginning of solar cycle 24 was used as a precursor to forecast the amplitude of the cycle. It was found that the amplitude of solar cycle 24 will be about 95 in terms of the smoothed monthly sunspot numbers.     

Temperature of Solar Prominences Obtained with the Fast Imaging Solar Spectrograph on the 1.6 m New Solar Telescope at the Big Bear Solar Observatory

We observed solar prominences with the Fast Imaging Solar Spectrograph (FISS) at the Big Bear Solar Observatory on 30 June 2010 and 15 August 2011. To determine the temperature of the prominence material, we applied a nonlinear least-squares fitting of the radiative transfer model. From the Doppler broadening of the Hα and Ca ii lines, we determined the temperature and nonthermal velocity separately. The ranges of temperature and nonthermal velocity were 4000?–?20?000 K and 4?–?11 km?s^?1. We also found that the temperature varied much from point to point within one prominence.     

Solar magnetic fields

Since the structuring and variability of the Sun and other stars are governed by magnetic fields, much of present-day stellar physics centers around the measurement and understanding of the magnetic fields and their interactions. The Sun, being a prototypical star, plays a unique role in astrophysics, since its proximity allows the fundamental processes to be explored in detail. The PRL anniversary gives us an opportunity to look back at past milestones and try to identify the main unsolved issues that will be addressed in the future.     

Solar Decameter Spikes

We analyze and discuss the properties of decameter spikes observed in July?–?August 2002 by the UTR-2 radio telescope. These bursts have a short duration (about one second) and occur in a narrow frequency bandwidth (50?–?70 kHz). They are chaotically located in the dynamic spectrum. Decameter spikes are weak bursts: their fluxes do not exceed 200?–?300 s.f.u. An interesting feature of these spikes is the observed linear increase of the frequency bandwidth with frequency. This dependence can be explained in the framework of the plasma mechanism that causes the radio emission, taking into account that Langmuir waves are generated by fast electrons within a narrow angle θ≈13^°?–?18^° along the direction of the electron propagation. In the present article we consider the problem of the short lifetime of decameter spikes and discuss why electrons generate plasma waves in limited regions.     

Solar Trans-equatorial Activity

We have found that solar flares in NOAA active region (AR) 10696 were often associated with large-scale trans-equatorial activities. These trans-equatorial activities appeared to be very common and manifest themselves through i) the formation and eruption of trans-equatorial loops (TELs), ii) the formation and eruption of trans-equatorial filaments (TEFs), and iii) the trans-equatorial brightening (TEB) in the chromosphere. It is determined that the TEF was formed following episodic plasma ejecta from flares occurring in the AR. The TEF eruption was associated with a trans-equatorial flare. All flares in the AR that were accompanied by trans-equatorial activities were associated with halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs). It was noticed that one or several major flares in the AR were followed by an increase of brightness and nonpotentiality of a TEL. These coupled events had a lifetime of more than 12 hours. In addition their associated halo CMEs always had a positive acceleration, indicating prolonged magnetic reconnections in the outer corona at high altitudes.     

Solar Cycle Workshop

Conclusion Clearly there is no concensus or agreement at present about the nature and mechanism of the solar cycle or, indeed, about many of its observed features. However, by highlighting these areas of agreement and disagreement through the presentations and discussions during this meeting, it is hoped that the work of the Workshop Groups will be directed to resolving at least some of these questions at or before the next meeting (planned for August, 1987). In particular, it is hoped that Group V (The Sun as a Star) will be able to contribute through studies of the sun in relation to stellar cycles and activity.     

Solar flare discovery

This paper considers the discoveries that have appreciably changed our understanding of the physics of solar flares. I identify a total of 42 discoveries from all disciplines, ranging from Galileo's initial observation of faculae to the recent discovery of strong limb brightening in 10-MeV γ-radiation. The rate of discovery increased dramatically over the past four decades as new observational tools became available. My assessment of significance suggests that recent discoveries - though more numerous - are individually less significant; perhaps this is because the minor early discoveries tend to be taken for granted. In spite of the many facets of flare physics that have been explained or at least well-described, many fundamental questions remain unresolved.