Bedload hysteresis in a glacier‐fed mountain river

Sediment transport during flood events often reveals hysteretic patterns because flow discharge can peak before (counterclockwise hysteresis) or after (clockwise hysteresis) the peak of bedload. Hysteresis in sediment transport has been used in the literature to infer the degree of sediment availability. Counterclockwise and clockwise hysteresis have been in fact interpreted as limited and unlimited sediment supply conditions, respectively. Hysteresis has been mainly explored for the case of suspended sediment transport, but it was rarely reported for bedload transport in mountain streams. This work focuses on the temporal variability of bedload transport in an alpine catchment (Saldur basin, 18.6 km², Italian Alps) where bedload transport was monitored by means of an acoustic pipe sensor which detects the acoustic vibrations induced by particles hitting a 0.5m‐long steel pipe. Runoff dynamics are dominated by snowmelt in late spring/early summer, mostly by glacier melt in late summer/early autumn, and by a combination of the snow and glacier melt in mid‐summer. The results indicate that hysteretic patterns during daily discharge fluctuations are predominantly clockwise during the snowmelt period, likely due to the ready availability of unpacked sediments within the channel or through bank erosion in the lower part of the basin. On the contrary, counterclockwise hysteresis tend to be more frequent during late glacier melting period, possibly due to the time lag needed for sediment provided by the glacial and peri‐glacial area to be transported to the monitoring section. However, intense rainfall events occurring during the glacier melt period generated predominantly clockwise hysteresis, thus indicating the activation of different sediment sources. These results indicate that runoff generation processes play a crucial role on sediment supply and temporal availability in mountain streams. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Use of turbidometry to characterize suspended sediment and phosphorus fluxes in the Lake Tahoe basin,California, USA

The efficacy of in‐stream nephelometric turbidometry as a surrogate for total suspended solids (TSS) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations was evaluated for use in low turbidity (<50 NTU) subalpine watersheds at Lake Tahoe, California–Nevada, USA. Continuous turbidity records for the 1999, 2000 and 2001 snowmelt seasons and data from water quality samples (1982–2000) were examined to determine watershed sediment delivery dynamics. Strong correlations were found between turbidity and both TSS and TP concentration. The strong correlation indicates that turbidity can serve as a good surrogate for direct measurement in these watersheds. The watersheds displayed clockwise hysteresis: sediment flushing and depletion, on daily, seasonal and decadal time‐scales. The hysteresis curves had strong concave shapes, indicating a sensitive response to peak flow. A pronounced seasonal trend was observed for the ratio of suspended sediment concentration (SSC)/discharge over time, indicating early season flushing of available sediment. Significant linear relationships (p < 0·05) were found for 12 of 17 years. Comparison of annual sediment rating curve coefficients indicated smaller coefficients during high sediment loading years and in the years following. The smaller coefficients are evidence of sediment depletion during high flow years. The effect of hysteresis on monitoring methods was illustrated by comparing turbidity estimates of TSS load with sediment rating curve estimates of SSC. After accounting for differences in SSC/TSS methods of analysis, daily loads calculated with turbidity methods were 58–98% of rating curve estimates for the spring snowmelt seasons of 1999–2001. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Variability of particulate (SS,POC) and dissolved (DOC,NO3) matter during storm events in the Alegria agricultural watershed

The temporal variability of suspended sediment, nitrates (NO₃) and dissolved (DOC) and particulate organic carbon concentrations was analysed in the Alegria agricultural watershed over a 2‐year period. Nine storm events were studied, including an exhaustive analysis of hydrometeorological conditions, quantification of fluxes, and concentration‐discharge hysteresis loop characterization. The overall aim was to study the variability in these components during storm events and determine the mechanisms (flow paths) affecting the trajectories, from the source to the stream. The forms, rotational patterns and trends of hysteretic loops were investigated, and relationships between hysteresis features and hydrological parameters were studied. The results revealed clear differences between particulate (suspended sediment, particulate organic carbon) and dissolved (DOC, NO₃) matter transport responses. Movement of the particulate matter was attributed to surface water, as reflected in clockwise hysteresis loops, whereas dissolved matter showed, in general, counterclockwise hysteresis loops, indicating a time delay in the arrival of solutes to the stream. This could be related to subsurface flow paths for DOC and a groundwater source for NO₃. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development of a distributed hydrological model to facilitate watershed management

To facilitate precise and cost-effective watershed management, a simple yet spatially and temporally distributed hydrological model (DHM-WM) was developed. The DHM-WM is based on the Mishra-Singh version of the curve number method, with several modifications: The spatial distribution of soil moisture was considered in moisture updating; the travel time of surface runoff was calculated on a grid cell basis for routing; a simple tile flow module was included as an option. The DHM-WM was tested on a tile-drained agricultural watershed in Indiana, USA. The model with the tile flow module performed well in the study area, providing a balanced water budget and reasonable flow partitioning. The daily coefficient of determination and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient were 0.58 and 0.56, for the calibration period, and 0.63 and 0.62 for the validation period. The DHM-WM also provides detailed information about the source areas of flow components, the travel time and pathways of surface runoff.

EDITOR A. Castellarin; ASSOCIATE EDITOR F.-J. Chang     

Some observations on suspended sediment dynamics in Storbregrova,Jotunheimen

Observations are reported of the dynamics of suspended sediment transport in the meltstream of Storbreen in the Jotunheimen. Fine sediment is transferred from the subglacial to the proglacial environment during low flow (meltdominated) periods, and then removed from the catchment during high flow (rainfall-controlled) events. Both diurnal and storm period sediment load-discharge relationships involve clockwise hysteresis, but separate multivariate rating curves define variations of load with streamflow according to (1) the relative importance of meltwater and rainfall runoff, and (2) changes in the sediment source areas contributing to the stream at different times. Particle size variations in the suspended sediment also reflect varying source area influences.     

Suspended sediment dynamics in a large drainage basin: the River Rhine

The behaviour of suspended sediment in rivers is often a function of energy conditions, i.e. sediment is stored at low flow and transported under high discharge conditions. The timing of maximum sediment transport can, however, also be related to mixing and routing of water and sediment from different sources. In this study suspended sediment transport was studied in the River Rhine between Kaub and the German–Dutch border. As concentrations decrease over a runoff season and as the relationship between water discharge and suspended sediment concentrations during most floods is characterized by clockwise hysteresis, it is concluded that sediment depletion occurs during a hydrological year and during individual floods. However, analyses of the sediment contribution from the River Mosel indicate that clockwise hysteresis may result from sediment depletion as well as from early sediment supply from a tributary. Thus, although the suspended sediment behaviour in the downstream part of the River Rhine is partly a transport phenomenon related to energy conditions, mixing and routing of water from different sources also plays an important role. Suspended sediment transport during floods was modelled using a ‘supply‐based’ model. Addition of a sediment supply term to the sediment rating curve leads to a model that produces better estimates of instantaneous suspended sediment concentrations during high discharge events. A major constriction of the model is that it cannot be used to predict suspended sediment concentrations as long as the amount of sediment in storage and the timing of sediment supply are unknown. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimating suspended sediment concentrations in areas with limited hydrological data using a mixed‐effects model

Sediment rating curves are commonly used to estimate the suspended sediment load in rivers and streams under the assumption of a constant relation between discharge (Q) and suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) over time. However, temporal variation in the sediment supply of a watershed results in shifts in this relation by increasing variability and by introducing nonlinearities in the form of hysteresis or a path‐dependent relation. In this study, we used a mixed‐effects linear model to estimate an average SSC–Q relation for different periods of time within the hydrologic cycle while accounting for seasonality and hysteresis. We tested the performance of the mixed‐effects model against the standard rating curve, represented by a generalized least squares regression, by comparing observed and predicted sediment loads for a test case on the Chilliwack River, British Columbia, Canada. In our analyses, the mixed‐effects model reflected more accurate patterns of interpolated SSC from Q data than the rating curve, especially for the low‐flow summer months when the SSC–Q relation is less clear. Akaike information criterion scores were lower for the mixed‐effects model than for the standard model, and the mixed‐effects model explained nearly twice as much variance as the standard model (52% vs 27%). The improved performance was achieved by accounting for variability in the SSC–Q relation within each month and across years for the same month using fixed and random effects, respectively, a characteristic disregarded in the sediment rating curve. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Predicting suspended sediment concentrations in the Meuse river using a supply‐based rating curve

A rating curve provides a reasonable estimate of the suspended sediment concentration at a given discharge. However, analysis of a detailed 9‐year time‐series of suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and discharge Q of the Meuse River in The Netherlands indicates that SSC is (besides discharge) controlled by exhaustion and replenishment of different sediment sources. Clockwise hysteresis and other effects of sediment exhaustion can be observed during and after flood events, and the effects of stockpiling of sediment in the river bed during low‐discharge periods are obvious in the SSC of the next flood. In a single regression equation we have implemented a parameter that represents the presence or absence of stock for sediment uptake. In comparison with a rating curve of SSC and Q, adding this parameter is shown to be a more reliable and comprehensive method to predict SSCs at all discharge regimes with all preceding discharge conditions, for single‐peaked and multi‐peaked runoff events as well as for low flow conditions. The method is probably applicable to other small‐ to medium‐scaled river basins. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

FLOOD MODELLING WITH GIS-DERIVED DISTRIBUTED UNIT HYDROGRAPHS

The concept of a spatially distributed unit hydrograph is based on the fact that the unit hydrograph can be derived from the time–area curve of a watershed by the S-curve method. The time–area diagram is a graph of cumulative drainage area contributing to discharge at the watershed outlet within a specified time of travel. Accurate determination of the time–area diagram is made possible by using a GIS. The GIS is used to describe the connectivity of the links in the watershed flow network and to calculate distances and travel times to the watershed outlet for various points within the watershed. Overland flow travel times are calculated by the kinematic wave equation for time to equilibrium; channel flow times are based on the Manning and continuity equations. To account for channel storage, travel times for channel reaches are increased by a percentage depending on the channel reach length and geometry. With GIS capability for rainfall mapping, the assumption of a uniform spatial rainfall distribution is no longer necessary; hence the term, spatially distributed unit hydrograph. An example of the application for the Waiparous Creek in the Alberta Foothills is given. IDRISI is used to develop a simple digital elevation model of the 229 km² watershed, using 1 km × 1 km grid cells. A grid of flow directions is developed and used to create an equivalent channel network. Excess rainfall for each 1 km × 1 km cell is individually computed by the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) runoff curve method and routed through the equivalent channel network to obtain the time–area curve. The derived unit hydrograph gave excellent results in simulating an observed flood hydrograph. The distributed unit hydrograph is no longer a lumped model, since it accounts for internal distribution of rainfall and runoff. It is derived for a watershed without the need for observed rainfall and discharge data, because it is essentially a geomorphoclimatic approach. As such, it allows the derivation of watershed responses (hydrographs) to inputs of various magnitudes, thus eliminating the assumption of proportionality of input and output if needed. The superposition of outputs is retained in simulating flood hydrographs by convolution, since it has been shown that some non-linear systems satisfy the principle of superposition. The distributed unit hydrograph appears to be a very promising rainfall runoff model based on GIS technology.     

Sediment dynamics of an allogenic river channel in a very arid environment

Despite a growing interest in the sediment dynamics of dryland rivers, most research has been based on ephemeral streams in endogenic hydrological systems (runoff and sediment transport determined by local precipitation). Less attention, however, has been paid to allogenic and perennial dryland rivers. Here, we report a case study on the suspended sediment dynamics of the Tarim River, an allogenic and perennial river flowing in a very arid environment in China, based on mean daily discharge and mean daily suspended sediment concentration (SSC) over the last 5 decades (1960–2011). Results reveal that discharge and SSCs are predominantly low and have distributions with large positive skewness. The SSC–discharge relationships can be fairly well generalized by power functions, with quite large scatter at extreme (low and high) flow conditions. Marked temporal and spatial variations were observed in the effective discharge for sediment transport. The frequency of the effective discharge ranged from 0.5% to 2% (or an average flow duration of 2–7 days/year), implying that moderate to high flows play an important role in sediment transport. The sediment rating curves show strong hysteresis effects, with 3 types of hysteresis loops observed, clockwise (the most predominant), anticlockwise, and figure of eight. The high potential for bank collapse near the peak and falling limb of the flood hydrograph is the major cause of anticlockwise and figure‐of‐eight hysteresis loops.     

How persistent are hysteresis patterns between suspended sediment concentration and discharge at different timescales?

ABSTRACT

This study was conducted to characterize the hysteresis of suspended sediment concentration (SSC) at different timescales for the Educational and Research Forest Watershed of Tarbiat Modares University, Iran. Hysteresis loops were developed between flow discharge and SSC using data for (i) the whole period, (ii) seasonal, (iii) monthly and (iv) storm-event timescales. The data were collected on an hourly basis at daily and storm-event scales from October 2007 to July 2008. The SSC hysteresis for all the events in the whole study period showed a clockwise pattern, with a flushing behaviour pointing to sudden changes in sediment sources. The results further reveal that the study watershed behaves differently from the viewpoint of hysteresis patterns, with different conditions of dilution and flushing between SSC and flow discharge at different timescales. These result from the complex varying effect of governing conditions on the watershed.     

Assessment of suspended sediment transport in four alpine watersheds (France): influence of the climatic regime

High‐frequency water discharge and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) databases were collected for 3 years on four contrasted watersheds: the Asse and the Bléone (two Mediterranean rainfall regime watersheds) and the Romanche and the Ferrand (two rainfall–snowmelt regime watersheds). SSCs were calculated from turbidity recordings (1‐h time step), converted into SSC values. The rating curve was calculated by means of simultaneous SSC measurement taken by water sampling and turbidity recording. Violent storms during springtime and autumn were responsible for suspended sediment transport on the Asse and the Bléone rivers. On the Ferrand and the Romanche, a large share of suspended sediment transport was also caused by local storms, but 30% of annual fluxes results from snowmelt or icemelt which occurred from April to October. On each watershed, SSC up to 50 g l^?1 were observed. Annual specific fluxes ranged from 450 to 800 t km^?2 year^?1 and 40–80% of annual suspended sediment fluxes occurred within 2% of the time. These general indicators clearly demonstrate the intensity of suspended sediment transport on these types of watersheds. Suspended sediment fluxes proved to be highly variable at the annual scale (inter‐annual variability of specific fluxes) as well as at the event scale (through a hysteresis loop in the SSC/Q relationship) on these watersheds. In both cases, water discharge and precipitations were the main processes involved in suspended sediment production and transport. The temporal and spatial variability of hydro‐meteorological processes on the watershed provides a better understanding of suspended sediment dynamics. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Watershed structural influences on the distributions of stream network water and solute travel times under baseflow conditions

Watershed structure influences the timing, magnitude, and spatial location of water and solute entry to stream networks. In turn, stream reach transport velocities and stream network geometry (travel distances) further influence the timing of export from watersheds. Here, we examine how watershed and stream network organization can affect travel times of water from delivery to the stream network to arrival at the watershed outlet. We analysed watershed structure and network geometry and quantified the relationship between stream discharge and solute velocity across six study watersheds (11.4 to 62.8 km²) located in the Sawtooth Mountains of central Idaho, USA. Based on these analyses, we developed stream network travel time functions for each watershed. We found that watershed structure, stream network geometry, and the variable magnitude of inputs across the network can have a pronounced affect on water travel distances and velocities within a stream network. Accordingly, a sample taken at the watershed outlet is composed of water and solutes sourced from across the watershed that experienced a range of travel times in the stream network. We suggest that understanding and quantifying stream network travel time distributions are valuable for deconvolving signals observed at watershed outlets into their spatial and temporal sources, and separating terrestrial and in‐channel hydrological, biogeochemical, and ecological influences on in‐stream observations. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stormflow concentration–discharge dynamics of suspended sediment and dissolved phosphorus in an agricultural watershed

Concentration–discharge (C-Q) relationships are an effective tool for identifying watershed biogeochemical source and transport dynamics over short and long timescales. We examined stormflow C-Q, hysteresis, and flushing patterns of total suspended sediment (TSS) and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) in two stream reaches of a severely impaired agricultural watershed in northeastern Wisconsin, USA. The upper watershed reach—draining a relatively flat, row crop-dominated contributing area—showed predominantly anti-clockwise TSS hysteresis during storms, suggesting that particulate materials were mobilized more from distal upland sources than near- and in-channel areas. In contrast, the incised lower watershed reach produced strong TSS flushing responses on the rising limb of storm hydrographs and clockwise hysteresis, signalling rapid mobilization of near- and in-channel materials with increasing event flows. C-Q relationships for SRP showed complex patterns in both the upper and lower reaches, demonstrating largely non-linear chemodynamic C-Q behaviour during events. As with TSS, anti-clockwise SRP hysteresis in the upper reach suggested a delay in the hydrologic connectivity between SRP sources and the stream, with highly variable SRP concentrations during some events. A broad range of clockwise, anti-clockwise, and complex SRP hysteresis patterns occurred in the lower watershed, possibly influenced by in-channel legacy P stores and connection to tile drainage networks in the lower watershed area. Total suspended sediment and SRP responses were also strongly related to precipitation event characteristics including antecedent precipitation, recovery period, and precipitation intensity, highlighting the complexity of stormflow sediment and phosphorus responses in this severely impaired agricultural stream.     

Diurnal variations in discharge and suspended sediment concentration,including runoff‐delaying characteristics,of the Gangotri Glacier in the Garhwal Himalayas

Diurnal variations in discharge and suspended sediment concentration (SSC), including runoff delaying characteristics, have been studied for the Gangotri Glacier, the largest glacier in the Garhwal Himalayas (glacierized area 286 km²; drainage area 556 km²). Hourly discharge and SSC data were collected near the snout of the glacier (∼4000 m) at an interval of about 15 days for an entire ablation period (May–October 2001). Diurnal variability in SSC was found to be much higher than the discharge. Hysteresis trends between discharge and SSC were established. Results indicate that, for the study glacier, clockwise hysteresis dominated for the entire melt season, indicating that most of the time the SSC led the discharge. During the peak melt period, anticlockwise hysteresis was also observed for a few hours. Assessment of runoff‐delaying characteristics was made by estimating the time lag between the occurrence of melting and its appearance as runoff along with estimation of time to peak. A comparison of runoff‐delaying parameters with discharge ratio clearly indicated that changes in time lag and time to peak are inversely correlated with variations in discharge. Attempts have also been made to establish the relationship between discharge and SSC using short‐interval data. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Suspended sediment concentration controlling factors: an analysis for the Argentine Pampas region

ABSTRACT

In the Argentine Pampas region, there is little information about sediment concentration in agricultural catchments. The aims of this work are: (1) to analyse fluctuations in sediment concentration and discharge, as a first attempt to characterize hysteresis patterns; and (2) to study sediment concentration controlling factors and to assess the importance of these factors using principal component analysis and a multiple regression model. Twenty-five events registered during 4 years in a 560 ha gauged basin of Argentina were studied. Analysis of data suggested a positive clockwise pattern. The multiple regression model was performed with three factors obtained by principal component analysis: runoff, precipitation and antecedent conditions. The model explained 83% of the variability of sediment concentration. The runoff factor contributed to modelled sediment concentration with the highest magnitude, followed by precipitation and antecedent condition factors. Although the watershed is under conservation tillage, rill erosion seems to be the main source of sediment concentration.

Editor M.C. Acreman; Associate editor X. Fang     

Suspended sediment dynamics associated with snowmelt runoff in a small mountain stream of Lake Tahoe (Nevada)

The Lake Tahoe basin is experiencing an environmental decline that is partly due to sediment intakes from its tributaries. Many studies have estimated suspended sediment loads in these streams with a discrete sampling programme by collecting water samples and using a rating technique. However, the relationship between stream discharge and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) in these tributaries is known to differ during the rising and falling limbs of the snowmelt‐dominated hydrograph. Because of this hysteresis effect, sediment rating curves are poor predictors of suspended sediment dynamics in the stream. In this study, suspended sediment transport was investigated using a turbidity meter to provide a continuous record of sediment concentration during the snowmelt period. Hysteresis in suspended sediment transport was also investigated and is quantified with an H index, which is the ratio of the areas under the curve at different stages of the hydrograph. The temporal lag between the peak of SSC and the peak of stream discharge was quantified using cross‐correlation analysis. For almost all events, SSCs were higher during the rising limb of the hydrograph for a given discharge, with SSC peaks occurring before discharge peaks, resulting in clockwise hysteresis (H > 1). The H indices increased (looser hysteresis loop) as the availability of sediments increased and as the lag between peaks in SSC and discharge was larger. A restriction of the proposed H index was that it could only be computed when stream discharge increased by more than 30% during a melt event. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Concentration–discharge relationships describe solute and sediment mobilization,reaction, and transport at event and longer timescales

Concentration–discharge (C‐Q) relationships reflect material sources, storage, reaction, proximity, and transport in catchments. Differences in hydrologic pathways and connectivity influence observed C‐Q patterns at the catchment outlet. We examined solute and sediment C‐Q relationships at event and interannual timescales in a small mid‐Atlantic (USA) catchment. We found systematic differences in the C‐Q behaviour of geogenic/exogenous solutes (e.g., calcium and nitrate), biologically associated solutes (e.g., dissolved organic carbon), and particulate materials (e.g., total suspended solids). Negative log(C)–log(Q) regression slopes, indicating dilution, were common for geogenic solutes whereas positive slopes, indicating concentration increase, were common for biologically associated solutes. Biologically associated solutes often exhibited counterclockwise hysteresis during events whereas geogenic solutes exhibited clockwise hysteresis. Across event and interannual timescales, solute C‐Q patterns are linked to the spatial distribution of hydrologic sources and the timing and sequence of hydro‐biogeochemical source contributions to the stream. Groundwater is the primary source of stormflow during the earliest and latest stages of events, whereas precipitation and soil water become increasingly connected to the stream near peakflow. This sequence and timing of flowpath connectivity results in dilution and clockwise hysteresis for geogenic/exogenous solutes and concentration increase and counterclockwise hysteresis for biologically associated solutes. Particulate materials demonstrated positive C‐Q slopes over the long‐term and clockwise hysteresis during individual events. Drivers of particulate and solute C‐Q relationships differ, based on longitudinal and lateral expansion of active channels and changing shear stresses with increasing flows. Although important distinctions exist between the drivers of solute and sediment C‐Q relationships, overall solute and sediment C‐Q patterns at event and interannual timescales reflect consistent catchment hydro‐biogeochemical processes.     

Empirical and conceptual modelling of the suspended sediment dynamics in a large tropical African river: the Upper Niger river basin

A 7-year sediment transport monitoring on the Upper Niger rivers was used to study the relationship between suspended sediment concentration and river discharge. During annual floods, these relationships show positive hysteresis. This paper presents the results of two models that estimate the time evolution of suspended sediment concentration using water discharge data only. The first model is based on a statistical approach using two relationships, one for the rising stage period of the flood and one for the recession period of the annual flood; the second model is a lumped conceptual one; it supposes that the sediment flux observed in the river comes from two different sources of sediment and that these two sources may be regarded as two different reservoirs. The erosion of the first reservoir represents hillslope erosion observed during the runoff season. Sediment supply from this ‘reservoir’ is limited in time because depletion occurs during the runoff season. The second reservoir is unlimited in time and quantity and its erosion represents contributions coming from bank erosion and mobilisation of deposits in the channel network.

Both of the models are compared with a simple rating curve based model. The model results show that the conceptual model has the highest efficiency to reproduce from weekly discharge only the time evolution of weekly suspended sediment concentrations, the time evolution of weekly sediment fluxes, and the global annual sediment yields.     

Time‐varying suspended sediment‐discharge rating curves to estimate climate impacts on fluvial sediment transport

This study presents time‐varying suspended sediment‐discharge rating curves to model suspended‐sediment concentrations (SSCs) under alternative climate scenarios. The proposed models account for hysteresis at multiple time scales, with particular attention given to systematic shifts in sediment transport following large floods (long‐term hysteresis). A series of nested formulations are tested to evaluate the elements embedded in the proposed models in a case study watershed that supplies drinking water to New York City. To maximize available data for model development, a dynamic regression model is used to estimate SSC based on denser records of turbidity, where the parameters of this regression are allowed to vary over time to account for potential changes in the turbidity‐SSC relationship. After validating the proposed rating curves, we compare simulations of SSC among a subset of models in a climate change impact assessment using an ensemble of flow simulations generated using a stochastic weather generator and hydrologic model. We also examine SSC estimates under synthetic floods generated using a peaks‐over‐threshold model. Our results indicate that estimates of extreme SSC under new climate and hydrologic scenarios can vary widely depending on the selected model and may be significantly underestimated if long‐term hysteresis is ignored when simulating impacts under sequences of large storm event. Based on the climate change scenarios explored here, average annual maximum SSC could increase by as much as 2.45 times over historical values.