Variations in thunderstorm VLF emissions propagating over epicenters of earthquakes

In this study, the variations of average amplitude of the very-low-frequency (VLF) signal thunderstorm origin propagating over areas of strong (magnitude >5) earthquakes are considered. Despite the non-stationary state of thunderstorms, a decrease in the amplitude of its VLF signals was usually detected 3–6 days before an earthquake, with subsequent recovery on the day of the event. The effect is similar to the attenuation of the signal amplitude of low-frequency radio stations that is observed for several days before the occurrence of an earthquake. These influences of earthquakes on thunderstorm VLF signals are recorded along different paths (different azimuths and different distances to the earthquake epicenter). The probability that an earthquake of strong magnitude will induce changes in the thunderstorm VLF signal is 60–70%.     

强震前后空间电磁场时空演化特征

本文利用DEMETER卫星观测到的电磁场数据, 统计分析了2005—2009年全球M_S≥7.0强震前后空间电磁场的时空演化特征． 在震中上空±10°范围内, 使用震前90天至震后30天的5年同期观测到的电磁场极低频/甚低频(370—897 Hz)功率谱密度数据构建了稳定的背景场观测模型, 提取了震中上空的空间电磁场相对于背景场的扰度幅度, 并统计分析了强震前后空间电磁场的时空演化特征． 统计结果显示: 45次M_S≥7.0强震中, 35次强震在地震发生前后磁场最大扰动幅度超过2.2倍标准差, 39次强震的电场最大扰动幅度超过2倍标准差; 最大的电磁扰动主要出现在震中±4°—±10°范围内． 另外, 震中上空的电磁场扰动幅度时序变化表现为3种不同类型的扰动特征, 且震前出现电磁异常的强震震中位置的分布特征与纬度存在一定关系; 而随机选择的非震区上空空间电磁场的扰动幅度则比较小, 未呈现出明显的特征．      

强震前ELF/VLF磁场的扰动特征统计研究

本文利用DEMETER卫星记录的变化磁场数据统计研究了2005—2009年北半球7级以上强震前后空间磁场的扰动特征.在震中±10°范围内利用震前2个月至震后1个月的5年同期观测的ELF/VLF[370~897 Hz]频段磁场功率谱密度数据构建了背景场,定义了表征空间磁场在地震时段相对于背景场的扰动幅度指标.统计研究发现26个强震中42%的地震主要表现为震前磁场扰度幅度逐渐上升,超过3倍标准差,随后在扰度幅度下降过程中发震.35%强震在地震前10天内最大扰动幅度超过3倍标准差,在扰度幅度处于最高值期间发震,震后磁场扰动幅度逐渐回落.23%的强震在震前震后无明显规律.随机事件测试发现在空间天气平静且无强震条件下随机地点上空的磁场无明显的时空演化规律,且随机地点上空的空间磁场相对于背景场的平均扰度幅度很小,最大扰度幅度从未超过2倍标准差,并且没有明显的随时间变化特征.     

基于LWPC和IRI模型的NWC台站信号传播幅度建模分析

频率为3~30 kHz的甚低频（VLF,Very Low Frequency）电磁波具有波长长、传播距离远的特点,能够沿地面-低电离层波导进行传播,在通信、导航等许多领域都被广泛应用.基于波导模理论的长波传播模型（LWPC,Long-Wavelength Propagation Capability）能够用于计算甚低频波的传播路径及幅度,进而研究耀斑、磁暴、地震等事件对电离层的扰动.本文利用国际电离层参考模型（IRI,International Reference Ionosphere）对LWPC中电子密度和碰撞频率进行改进,并将模拟结果与武汉大学VLF接收机实际观测到的NWC （North West Cape）台站信号幅度进行比较分析,结果表明改进后LWPC模型得到的幅度及变化趋势与实际值更加接近.LWPC模型给出的电子密度与IRI模型得到的电子密度在日间基本一致,但是在夜间存在差异,造成夜间部分区域NWC台站信号幅度的差异性,验证了电离层电子密度对于VLF信号传播具有的重要影响.传播路径上的晨昏变化也可以引起VLF信号幅度分布的突变,在日出和日落时间段内存在明显的过渡区域.基于IRI模型的LWPC,改善了VLF电波传播过程的预测分析效果,提供了一种长波导航通信质量的评估方法.     

Neural network technique for identifying prognostic anomalies from low-frequency electromagnetic signals in the Kuril–Kamchatka region

In this paper, we suggest a technique for forecasting seismic events based on the very low and low frequency (VLF and LF) signals in the 10 to 50 Hz band using the neural network approach, specifically, the error back-propagation method (EBPM). In this method, the solution of the problem has two main stages: training and recognition (forecasting). The training set is constructed from the combined data, including the amplitudes and phases of the VLF/LF signals measured in the monitoring of the Kuril-Kamchatka region and the corresponding parameters of regional seismicity. Training the neural network establishes the internal relationship between the characteristic changes in the VLF/LF signals a few days before a seismic event and the corresponding level of seismicity. The trained neural network is then applied in a prognostic mode for automated detection of the anomalous changes in the signal which are associated with seismic activity exceeding the assumed threshold level. By the example of several time intervals in 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007, we demonstrate the efficiency of the neural network approach in the short-term forecasting of earthquakes with magnitudes starting from M ≥ 5.5 from the nighttime variations in the amplitudes and phases of the LF signals on one radio path. We also discuss the results of the simultaneous analysis of the VLF/LF data measured on two partially overlapping paths aimed at revealing the correlations between the nighttime variations in the amplitude of the signal and seismic activity.     

Variations in the parameters of thunderstorm electromagnetic signals on paths over earthquake regions

The specific features of a method for radiosounding the lower ionosphere over earthquake epicenters using LF electromagnetic signals of thunderstorm sources (atmospherics) have been considered. The effects of shallow-focus earthquakes with magnitudes larger than 4.0 and their precursors manifest themselves in amplitude characteristics of atmospherics. It has been assumed that variations in the signal characteristics are related to disturbances in the lower ionosphere. According to the results of azimuthal scanning, cross-sectional dimensions of disturbed regions, as a rule, correspond to the dimensions of the first two Fresnel zones for signals at a frequency of 10 kHz. Azimuthal scanning also indicated that the positions of disturbed regions during and before earthquakes could have a certain dynamics and differ from the projection onto the earthquake epicenter. The ratio of the amplitudes of electric and magnetic signal components, in the variations of which seismic effects before earthquakes can also be observed, has been considered. An analysis of the ratio makes it possible to increase the probability of predicting earthquakes when using the characteristics of the electromagnetic signals of lightning discharges as an additional method of complex monitoring of disturbances in the lower ionosphere caused by seismic processes.     

ULF electromagnetic precursors before the 1999 Jiji, Taiwan, earthquake and the comparison with results of simulating experiments

There are many reports about the abnormal electromagnetic signals observed before great earthquakes. In particular, the signals of electromagnetic anomalies before the Hyogo-Ken Nanbu, Japan, MS=7.2 earthquake on January 17, 1995 (Hayakawa, et al, 1996) and those before the Loma Prieta, USA, MS=7.1 earthquake on October 19, 1989 (Fraser-Smith, et al, 1990) are especially remarkable. However, what the above authors reported are only the phenomena of one or two observatories. In order to …     

利用DEMETER卫星数据分析强震前后的电离层异常

基于法国DEMETER卫星观测的离子温度(T_i)、 VLF电磁场单频点频谱数据探索了2008年5月12日汶川M_S8.0、 2010年1月12日海地M_S7.3和2010年2月27日智利M_S8.8等3次强震前后与地震有关的电离层异常现象. 结果发现, 汶川地震前3天(5月9日)震中北偏西方向离子温度明显升高, 震前4天(5月8日)VLF磁场低于200 Hz的频段范围频谱在震中2°以内有明显突升; 智利地震前9天(2月18日)震中北东方向离子温度有剧烈扰动, 震前4天(2月23日)VLF磁场100—160 Hz频段范围内出现突升; 海地地震震前没有观测到明显的异常现象, 但地震发生当天(震后约4—5小时)的T_i, 40—160 Hz频段电场频谱, 以及120—480 Hz磁场频谱均有明显突升, 应为地震发生后能量释放所引起. 分析认为, 不同地震由于发震机制等各种情况的不同, 其地震前后的表现也各不相同. 虽然目前没有直接的证据表明本文研究的异常变化是由地震的孕育和发生引起的, 但在数据处理中已尽可能排除了太阳、 地磁等因素的影响, 并且研究结果与前人的研究经验吻合, 因此本文发现的异常可能与地震发生的关系较大.      

Electromagnetic anomalies associated with 1995 Kobe earthquake

Occurrences of anomalous electro-magnetic phenomena at varied frequency ranges, covering ELF to VHF, have been reported in relation to the 17 January 1995 Kobe earthquake (M7.2), by several independent research groups. Prominent pre-seismic peaks, which could have been emitted from the focal area, were observed on 9-10 January in ELF, VLF, LF and HF ranges. Whether these changes were truly related to the earthquake is not certain, because atmospheric (thunderbolt discharge) activities also peaked on 9-10 January. The nomalous changes were markedly enhanced toward the catastrophe in agreement with many reports on unusual radio/TV noise. Anomalous transmission of man-made electromagnetic waves in VLF and VHF ranges was also detected from a few days before the earthquake, indicating the possibility that the ionosphere above the focal zone was disturbed at the final stage of the earthquake preparation process.     

Variations in the parameters of VLF signals on the DEMETER satellite during the periods of seismic activity

Two methods for diagnosing ionospheric disturbances using VLF signals received on the DEMETER satellite are considered in connection with two cases of high seismic activity: the method for analyzing a signal reception zone in order to find large-scale spatial variations and the residual signal method used to reveal time variations. Based on an analysis of the VLF signal reception zone, performed in connection with the catastrophic earthquake near Sumatra, it has been found out that the signal amplitude decreased during a month before the earthquake. As a result, it has been concluded that the zone of ionospheric disturbances extends for several thousand kilometers. It has been indicated that the residual signal method showed good agreement between the ground and satellite data when high seismic activity near Japan was analyzed.     

The LF radio anomaly observed before the Mw = 6.5 earthquake in Crete on October 12, 2013

On October 12, 2013, an earthquake with M_w = 6.5 occurred in the southern Hellenic Arc, approximately 20 km off the west coast of Crete. The main shock, the focal depth of which is on the order of 40 km, was followed by aftershocks felt in the nearby cities and villages, although the aftershock sequence was poor. The epicentre was located at approximately 60 km from a radio receiver in Crete (CRE), which belongs to the European VLF/LF Radio Network. Several days before the earthquake, a clear disturbance occurred in one of the ten radio signals that the CRE receiver sampled. The disturbance, which can be considered an anomaly, appeared in the 216 kHz radio signal radiated by the Radio Monte Carlo (MCO) transmitter. The radio path MCO-CRE crossed directly over the epicentre area of the aforementioned earthquake. In this work, we present a detailed analysis of the MCO signal anomaly using spectral tools. We also investigate the behaviour of other radio signals sampled by the CRE receiver and consider other possible causes of disturbances on the MCO radio signal. We conclude that the disturbance in the MCO radio signal is a convincingly possible precursor of the earthquake in Crete. Emission of electromagnetic waves with a frequency band that includes 216 kHz from the focal zone of the earthquake can provide a satisfactory explanation of the radio anomaly.     

Electric and electromagnetic processes in the near-Earth atmosphere before earthquakes on Kamchatka

Simultaneous records of the diurnal variations in the quasistatic electric field in the near-Earth atmosphere, fluxes of discrete electromagnetic pulses in the VLF band, source azimuths, narrowband filter output emission intensity at frequencies of 4.65 and 5.3 kHz, and time forms and spectra of VLF pulses have been analyzed. The anomalous behavior of these parameters in October 2002 and August 2004 with different time delay was accompanied by earthquakes near the southeastern coast of Kamchatka at distances of 250–400 km from the registration points. Based on the results of a fine frequency-time analysis of the broadband records of VLF signals, it has been indicated for the first time that discrete electromagnetic pulses observed in anomalous fluxes before earthquakes were signals of local thunderstorm processes.     

基于阿尔法导航系统记录分析2010年玉树MS 7.1地震异常

地震灾害是人类面临的重大考验,阿尔法导航系统在地震预报领域有着重要的科研及应用价值。以2010年4月13日23时49分（世界时）玉树M_S 7.1地震为例,基于2010年4月6日—13日阿尔法导航系统超低频（VLF）电波场强和相位数据,使用滑动四分位法,分析该系统9条链路上的信号异常,结合地磁“低点位移”现象,综合分析此次地震前的异常变化。研究结果表明：在地磁活动平静时段,玉树M_S 7.1震前3天及震前23 h,电波场强数据出现明显畸变,表现为持续1—6 h超阈值的异常扰动,最大扰动幅度超过阈值13.6 μV/m,相位数据未出现明显异常。结合震前3天阿尔法导航系统主台—通海台、西副台—雅安台异常链路以及震前47天地磁“低点位移”分界线的重叠位置,可进一步精确临震预报时刻,并提高发震位置的预测精度。     

VLF phase and amplitude: daytime ionospheric parameters

Experimental observations of the daytime variations of VLF phase and amplitude over a variety of long subionospheric paths have been found to be satisfactorily modelled with a D-region ionosphere, described by the two traditional parameters, H′ and β (being measures of the ionospheric height and the rate of increase of electron density with height, respectively). This VLF radio modelling uses the NOSC Earth–ionosphere waveguide programs but with an experimentally deduced dependence of these two ionospheric parameters on solar zenith angle. Phase and amplitude measurements from several VLF Omega and MSK stations were compared with calculations from the programs LWPC and Modefinder using values of H′ and β determined previously from amplitude only data. This led to refined curves for the diurnal variations of H′ and β which, when used in these programs, give not only calculated amplitudes but also, for the first time, calculated phase variations that agree well with a series of observations at Dunedin, New Zealand, of VLF signals from Omega Japan, Omega Hawaii, NPM (Hawaii) and NLK (Seattle) covering a frequency range of 10–25 kHz.     

东北亚地区Ms5.0以上地震前后空间电场时空演化特征研究

本文利用2005年1月—2009年12月DEMETER电磁卫星观测的极低频/甚低频(ELF/VLF)39 Hz~6 kHz频段电场功率谱密度(PSD)观测量, 将研究频段划分为5个子频段对东北亚地区(38°N~58°N; 105°E~145°E)内发生的8个M_S≥5.0地震前后空间电场时空演化特征进行研究。 研究发现同一地震不同频段异常扰动区域并不完全在同一位置, 且同一地震的不同频段地震前后扰动形态也并不一致; 8个地震40次统计中有25% 的统计数据虽然基本在地震前后所有时间段都超过阈值2σ, 但未见明显扰动规律, 其余75%的统计数据中发现其扰动特征可以归纳为3类: 52%的统计数据在震前扰动幅度增大, 达到最大时发震, 震后持续降低; 7.5%的统计数据在震前扰动幅度达到高值, 而后下降过程中发震; 15%的统计数据在震前扰动幅度一直在增加且绝大部分时间低于2σ, 直至震后超过2σ, 且出现这种类型的异常均为震例的第五频段演化特征。 异常扰动区域主要集中在震中±4°以外的区域。     

Aspects regarding the use of the INFREP network for identifying possible seismic precursors

In the last decades, one of the main research directions in identifying seismic precursors involved monitoring VLF (Very Low Frequency) and LF (Low Frequency) radio waves and analysing their propagation characteristics. Essentially this method consists of monitoring different available VLF and LF transmitters from long distance reception points. The received signal has two major components: the ground wave and the sky wave, where the sky wave propagates by reflection on the lower layers of the ionosphere. It is assumed that before and during major earthquakes, unusual changes may occur in the lower layers of the ionosphere, such as the modification of the charged particles number density and the altitude of the reflection zone. Therefore, these unusual changes in the ionosphere may generate unusual variations in the received signal level.The International Network for Frontier Research on Earthquake Precursors (INFREP) was developed starting with 2009 and consists of several dedicated VLF and LF radio receivers used for monitoring various radio transmitters located throughout Europe. The receivers’ locations were chosen so that the propagation path from these VLF/LF stations would pass over high seismicity regions while others were chosen to obtain different control paths.The monitoring receivers are capable of continuously measuring the received signal amplitude from the VLF/LF stations of interest. The recorded data is then stored and sent to an INFREP database, which is available on the Internet for scientific researchers. By processing and analysing VLF and LF data samples, collected at different reception points and at different periods of the year, one may be able to identify some distinct patterns in the envelope of the received signal level over time. Significant deviations from these patterns may have local causes such as the electromagnetic pollution at the monitoring point, regional causes like existing electrical storms over the propagation path or even global causes generated by high-intensity solar flares. As a consequence, classifying these perturbations and minimizing them (when possible) would represent an important step towards identifying significant pattern deviations caused by seismic activities.Taken into consideration some of the issues mentioned above, this paper intends to present some aspects meant to improve the overall performance of the existing INFREP network. The signal-to-noise ratio improvement of the monitoring receiver may be achieved by relocating the antenna (or even the entire monitoring system if possible) in areas with less electromagnetic pollution within the VLF and LF bands. Other solution may involve replacing the existing electric “whip” antennas with magnetic loop antennas.Regarding the measuring method, long-term averaging of the received signal to reduce the electromagnetic noise should be carefully applied. If the averaging time is too long, there is a risk that, during a seismic event, the details of the received signal envelope would be lost. Moreover, this may reduce the possibility of making correlations between the monitored stations and INFREP receivers in case of sudden ERP (Effective Radiated Power) variations of the VLF/LF stations. For the same reason, the time synchronization of the recorded data using (for instance) GPS technology is highly recommended.Other aspects related to the overall performance improvement of the INFREP network consist of monitoring other VLF/LF stations such as the Krasnodar station (south of Russia), part of the ALPHA/RSDN-20 VLF navigation system, or the 77.5 kHz DCF77 time signal transmitter (near Frankfurt am Main, Germany). Moreover, the installation of a new reception point in Romania (near Cluj-Napoca) for monitoring the Vrancea area (within the Carpathians Mountains) and the Adriatic region will provide complementary scientific data within the network.     

滇西区域水化观测台网近源场震兆特征

在本文中，作者用变幅滑动平均、滑动残差、群体突跳率３种方法，对滇西地区水化观测台网建网以来的资料进行了系统的综合处理，并与邻近地区１０多次５级以上地震进行相关分析，结果表明，在台网内发生的地震之前，多数观测点及观测项目都有背景异常显示，异常持续时间长短及幅度大小与地震强度、震中距呈正相关。短期异常表现为群体突跳，当群体突跳率达峰值并发生转折后４０－５０天地震发生。该台网有较强的映震能力，各观测点的     

Observations of intensity variations and harmonics of heater induced VLF waves

Very low-frequency (VLF) radio waves have been generated in the ionosphere by the heating facility near Tromsø. VLF signals have been received at Porojärvi (69.17 ° N, 21.47 ° E, L = 6.1), in Northern Finland, about 100 km from the heating transmitter. Three heating experiments were performed under different geophysical conditions and different results were obtained. Signal intensities have been compared with magnetic variations. Correlations and anti-correlations were observed. Several harmonics of the generated signal have generally been found. In some cases when the intensity of the detected VLF signal was low the first harmonic was as intensive as the fundamental frequency. VLF response from Artificial Periodic Inhomogeneities (API) experiment was also observed.     

Spatiotemporal distributions of the electron density in the ionosphere by records of the total electron content and phase of VLF radio signals

Features of the structure and dynamics of the ionospheric plasma are studied in a comparison the ionospheric total electron content measurements with the phase and amplitude measurements of VLF–LF radio signals on global and regional paths. The ionospheric structure over Europe is reconstructed. The spatiotemporal dynamics of moving ionospheric disturbances under conditions of a powerful geomagnetic storm of March 17, 2015, is examined based on the reconstruction results. Analysis of the phase variation of VLF radio signals, together with the TEC measurement data, is not only an additional tool in the study of the dynamics of ionospheric disturbances; it also makes it possible to estimate electron density disturbances in different ionospheric layers.     

Observations of EM signals prior to earthquake events

Conclusion The results described above were obtained in the frequency band below about 20 Hz within 200 km of the observation station. therefore, they had the characteristies of quasi — static field. The amplitude of these signals was much higher than the environment noise level. The EM signals prior to earthquakes have good correlation with the seismic events. From the records of 16 signal groups received in 5 years, it can be seen that the correlation reached 75%. So the EM signals observed are possibly precursors useful for the prediction of the earthquake events. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 121–124, 1991.