A climate change simulation starting from 1935

Due to restrictions in the available computing resources and a lack of suitable observational data, transient climate change experiments with global coupled ocean-atmosphere models have been started from an initial state at equilibrium with the present day forcing. The historical development of greenhouse gas forcing from the onset of industrialization until the present has therefore been neglected. Studies with simplified models have shown that this cold start error leads to a serious underestimation of the anthropogenic global warming. In the present study, a 150-year integration has been carried out with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model starting from the greenhouse gas concentration observed in 1935, i.e., at an early time of industrialization. The model was forced with observed greenhouse gas concentrations up to 1985, and with the equivalent C0₂ concentrations stipulated in Scenario A (Business as Usual) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change from 1985 to 2085. The early starting date alleviates some of the cold start problems. The global mean near surface temperature change in 2085 is about 0.3 K (ca. 10%) higher in the early industrialization experiment than in an integration with the same model and identical Scenario A greenhouse gas forcing, but with a start date in 1985. Comparisons between the experiments with early and late start dates show considerable differences in the amplitude of the regional climate change patterns, particularly for sea level. The early industrialization experiment can be used to obtain a first estimate of the detection time for a greenhouse-gas-induced near-surface temperature signal. Detection time estimates are obtained using globally and zonally averaged data from the experiment and a long control run, as well as principal component time series describing the evolution of the dominant signal and noise modes. The latter approach yields the earliest detection time (in the decade 1990–2000) for the time-evolving near-surface temperature signal. For global-mean temperatures or for temperatures averaged between 45°N and 45°S, the signal detection times are in the decades 2015–2025 and 2005–2015, respectively. The reduction of the cold start error in the early industrialization experiment makes it possible to separate the near-surface temperature signal from the noise about one decade earlier than in the experiment starting in 1985. We stress that these detection times are only valid in the context of the coupled model's internally-generated natural variability, which possibly underestimates low frequency fluctuations and does not incorporate the variance associated with changes in external forcing factors, such as anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, solar variability or volcanic dust.     

Influence of heterogeneous land surfaces on surface energy and mass fluxes

Summary Land-surface heterogeneity affects surface energy fluxes. The magnitudes of selected land-surface influences are quantified by comparing observations with model simulations of the FIFE (First ISLSCP Field Experiment) domain. Several plausible heterogeneous and homogeneous initial and boundary conditions are examined, although soilmoisture variability is emphasized. It turns out that simple spatial averages of surface variation produced biased flux values. Simulated maximum latent-heat fluxes were approximately 30 to 40 W m^–2 higher, and air temperatures 0.4 °C lower (at noon), when computations were initialized with spatially averaged soil-moisture and leaf-area-index fields. The planetary boundary layer (PBL) height and turbulent exchanges were lower as well. It additionally was observed that (largely due to the nonlinear relationship between initial soil-moisture availability and the evapotranspiration rate), real latent-heat flux can be substantially less than simulated latent-heat flux using models initialized with spatially averaged soil-moisture fields. Differences between real and simulated fluxes also vary with the resolution at which real soil-moisture heterogeneity is discretized.With 8 Figures     

A study of the sensitivity of bare soil evaporation schemes to soil surface wetness,using the coupled soil moisture and surface temperature prediction model,BARESOIL

Summary The performance of evaporation schemes with and approach and their combination within resistance representation of evaporation from bare soil surface is discussed. For this purpose nine schemes, based on different functions of or , on the ratio of the volumetric soil moisture content and its saturated value are used.The quality of the chosen schemes has been evaluated using the results of time integration by the coupled soil moisture and surface temperature prediction model, BARESOIL, using in situ data. A sensitivity analysis was made using two sets of data derived from the volumetric soil moisture content of the top soil layer. One with values below the wilting point (0.17 m³m^–3) and the second with values above 0.20m³m^–3. Data sets were obtained at the experimental site Rimski anevi, Yugoslavia, from the bare surface of a chernozem soil.With 4 Figures     

On some new statistical characteristics of the wind “Koshava”

Summary Koshava is a gusty wind of moderate to strong intensity, blowing from the south-eastern direction, over the area of the Republic of Serbia. It is caused by the interaction between the synoptic circulation and the orography of the Carpathian and the Balkan mountains. The Koshava wind can damage buildings, factories and industrial plants or city infrastructure. Therefore it is important to estimate its gust and the gustiness factor on the basis of the measured data.This paper discusses a statistical analysis of wind data in the maximum influence area of the Koshava wind in the periods of maximum duration of Koshava. The focus of the paper is the examination of urban and suburban effects on Koshava wind and the correlation between the instantaneous maximum wind speed and the hourly mean wind speed. The best fitting with various empirical distributions is proposed.With 10 Figures     

Bioaccumulation of Cobalt in Parmelia sulcata

Six locations across mainland Portugal were selected for exposing Parmelia sulcata, for a one-year period (8 months for one site), with simultaneous measurement of total (dry + wet) deposition (one-month periods). The exposed lichens and the total (dry + wet) deposition were analysed for cobalt contents by INAA (instrumental neutron activation analysis) and ICP-MS (inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy), respectively. The designated wet deposition was evaluated through the collected water volume; the designated dry deposition was assessed after the (dried) residual mass of the wet deposition. An excellent agreement between Co contents in exposed lichens and the cumulative (1) Co contents in the dry deposition, (2) dry deposition, and (3) wet deposition has been found for the locations with alternate drought and precipitation months, high dry deposition, and high Co contents in the latter. Continuous rainfall was found to hinder the Co accumulation in the lichen due to its release from the lichen and/or lower Co contents in the dry deposition. At three locations, P. sulcata Co contents, after subtraction of the background (before exposure), equalled or exceeded the Co contents in the cumulative dry deposition at the end of the exposure time. The optimal exposure period for this species likely depends on the exposure conditions.     

SODAR-based estimation of TKE and momentum flux profiles in the atmospheric boundary layer: Test of a parameterization model

Summary A simple parameterization for the estimation of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and momentum flux profiles under near-neutral stratification based on sodar measurements of the vertical velocity variance has been tested using data from the LINEX-2000 experiment. Measurements included operation of a phased-array Doppler sodar DSDPA.90 and of a sonic anemometer USA-1 mounted at a meteorological tower at a height of 90m. Good agreement has been found between the TKE and momentum flux values derived from the sonic and sodar data (with correlation coefficients r>0.90 and a slope of the regression lines of about 1.01.1) suggesting the possible use of sodar measurements of _w ² to derive turbulence parameter profiles above the tower range.     

A mechanism of Alpine lee cyclogenesis as revealed by a quasigeostrophic variational filter

Summary Mechanisms associated with Alpine lee cyclogenesis during the early phase of their generation are investigated using a variational quasigeostrophic filter technique. It was possible to extract the quasigeostrophic signal from the available analyzed real data set.The results presented here are for the 11–12 March 1982, an example of so-called orographically induced lee cyclogenesis. Non-quasigeostrophic fields, calculated as a difference between observations and the quasigeostrophic fields, show significant magnitudes indicating the possible importance of non-quasigeostrophic processes. A dipole structure in the residual geopotential field was observed, similar to the results of numerical model experiments. Also, a strong upper-level non-quasigeostrophic divergence was found in the Alpine region 24 hours prior to lee cyclogenesis, lasting for 6–12 hours. On the other hand, quasigeostrophic results indicate only a local effect of mountain slopes, suggesting possibly a dominant role of the low-level blocking. A hypothetical scenario of Alpine lee cyclogenesis is proposed, based on results obtained here.With 14 Figures     

Bistability of the thermohaline circulation identified through comprehensive 2-parameter sweeps of an efficient climate model

The effect of changes in zonal and meridional atmospheric moisture transports on Atlantic overturning is investigated. Zonal transports are considered in terms of net moisture export from the Atlantic sector. Meridional transports are related to the vigour of the global hydrological cycle. The equilibrium thermohaline circulation (THC) simulated with an efficient climate model is strongly dependent on two key parameters that control these transports: an anomaly in the specified Atlantic–Pacific moisture flux (F_a) and atmospheric moisture diffusivity (K_q). In a large ensemble of spinup experiments, the values of F_a and K_q are varied by small increments across wide ranges, to identify sharp transitions of equilibrium THC strength in a 2-parameter space (between Conveyor On and Off states). Final states from this ensemble of simulations are then used as the initial states for further such ensembles. Large differences in THC strength between ensembles, for identical combinations of F_a and K_q, reveal the co-existence of two stable THC states (Conveyor On and Off)—i.e. a bistable regime. In further sensitivity experiments, the model is forced with small, temporary freshwater perturbations to the mid-latitude North Atlantic, to establish the minimum perturbation necessary for irreversible THC collapse in this bistable regime. A threshold is identified in terms of the forcing duration required. The model THC, in a Conveyor On state, irreversibly collapses to a Conveyor Off state under additional freshwater forcing of just 0.1 Sv applied for around 100 years. The irreversible collapse is primarily due to a positive feedback associated with suppressed convection and reduced surface heat loss in the sinking region. Increased atmosphere-to-ocean freshwater flux, under a collapsed Conveyor, plays a secondary role.     

Effect of land management on ecosystem carbon fluxes at a subalpine grassland site in the Swiss Alps

Summary The influence of agricultural management on the CO₂ budget of a typical subalpine grassland was investigated at the Swiss CARBOMONT site at Rigi-Seebodenalp (1025m a.s.l.) in Central Switzerland. Eddy covariance flux measurements obtained during the first growing season from the mid of spring until the first snow fall (17 Mai to 25 September 2002) are reported. With respect to the 10-year average 1992–2001, we found that this growing season had started 10 days earlier than normal, but was close to average temperature with above-normal precipitation (100–255% depending on month). Using a footprint model we found that a simple approach using wind direction sectors was adequate to classify our CO₂ fluxes as being controlled by either meadow or pasture. Two significantly different light response curves could be determined: one for periods with external interventions (grass cutting, cattle grazing) and the other for periods without external interventions. Other than this, meadow and pasture were similar, with a net carbon gain of –128±17g Cm^–2 on the undisturbed meadow, and a net carbon loss of 79±17g Cm^–2 on the managed meadow, and 270±24g Cm^–2 on the pasture during 131 days of the growing season, respectively. The grass cut in June reduced the gross CO₂ uptake of the meadow by 50±2% until regrowth of the vegetation. Cattle grazing reduced gross uptake over the whole vegetation period (37±2%), but left respiration at a similar level as observed in the meadow.     

An acceleration scheme for the simulation of long term climate evolution

An acceleration scheme is proposed in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model for the simulation of long term climate evolutions forced by climate forcing of longer than millennia time scales. In this coordinated acceleration scheme, both the surface forcing and the deep ocean are accelerated simultaneously by the same factor. The acceleration scheme is evaluated in a 3-dimensional ocean general circulation model and in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model of intermediate complexity. For millennial climate evolution, our acceleration scheme produces reasonably good simulations with an acceleration factor of about 5. For climate evolution of even longer time scales, the acceleration factor can be increased further.     

Potential refractivity as a similarity variable

The validity of a common radiometeorological application of Monin-Obukhov (M-O) similarity theory to potential refractivity (), which is a nonlinear combination of and q, is determined by whether the properly nondimensionalized gradient is a universal function of z/L. We develop expressions for the flux of (and its scaling parameter, *) in terms of temperature and moisture fluxes, and an M-O similarity expression for the vertical gradient. Results show that even if and q are accepted as exactly following M-O similarity expressions, when the surface layer is stable, does not obey such an expression. That is, when properly nondimensionalized, the vertical gradient of does not collapse to a single universal function of z/L. The assumption that behaves as a similarity variable is approximately correct for well-mixed surface layers under unstable and near-neutral conditions.The gradient of is an important factor in determining microwave propagation conditions. We demonstrate the error induced in a simple algorithm when is assumed to obey M-O similarity theory. An alternative methodology, consistent with the application of similarity theory to and q, is then developed without requiring that itself satisfy similarity theory.     

Equatorial disturbances,monsoons, and 1982–1983 ENSO

Summary Interannual modes are described in terms of three-month running mean anomaly winds (u,v), outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and sea surface temperature (T _* ). Normal atmospheric monsoon circulations are defined by long-term average winds (u _n,v _n) computed every month from January to December. Daily winds are grouped into three frequency bands, i.e., 30–60 day filtered winds (u _L,v _L); 7–20 day filtered winds (u _M,v _M); and 2–6 day filtered winds (u _S,v _S). Three-month running mean anomaly kinetic energy (signified asK _L , K _M , andK _S , respectively) is then introduced as a measure of interannual variation of equatorial disturbance activity. Interestingly, all of theseK _L , K _M , andK _S perturbations propagate slowly eastward with same phase speed (0.3 ms^–1) as ENSO modes. Associated with this eastward propagation is a positive (negative) correlation between interannual disturbance activity (K _L , K _M , K _S ) and interannualu (OLR) modes. Namely, (K _L , K _M , K _S ) becomes more pronounced than usual nearly simultaneously with the arrival of westerlyu and negativeOLR (above normal convection) perturbutions. In these disturbed areas with (K _L , K _M , K _S >0), upper ocean mixing tends to increase, resulting in decreased sea surface temperature, i.e.T _* 0. Thus, groups (not individual) of equatorial disturbances appear to play an important role in determiningT _* variations on interannual time scales. HighestT _* occurs about 3 months prior to the lowestOLR (convection) due primarily to radiational effects. This favors the eastward propagation of ENSO modes. The interannualT _* variations are also controlled by the prevailing monsoonal zonal windsu _n, as well as the zonal advection of sea surface temperature on interannual time scales. Over the central Pacific, all of the above mentioned physical processes contribute to the intensification of eastward propagating ENSO modes. Over the Indian Ocean, on the other hand, some of the physical processes become insignificant, or even compensated for by other processes. This results in less pronounced ENSO modes over the Indian Ocean.With 10 FiguresContribution No. 89-6, Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii.     

Environmental aerosols and their effect on the Earth’s local fair-weather electric field

Summary The Earths local fair-weather electric field is significantly affected by small ions present in the atmosphere. These ions are typically smaller than 0.001µm and occur in concentrations from 500 to 600cm^–3 in air. Attachment to larger aerosol particles may severely decrease the mobility of these atmospheric ions resulting in an increased local electric field. The number concentration of environmental aerosol particles in the size range 0.1 to 5.0µm was measured with two automatic laser scattering particle counters. The Earths electric field was monitored with an electric fieldmeter. Measurements were made in clean air and in an environment highly polluted by wood smoke. The electric field was found to be positively correlated to the aerosol number concentration. During one 24-hour period of measurement, the electric field increased from 180 to about 280Vm^–1 as the number concentration of aerosols larger than 0.1µm increased from about 2000 to 9000cm^–3. The number concentrations of aerosols larger than 0.1 and 0.3µm were both found to be positively correlated with the Earths electric field with correlation coefficients of 70% and 61%, respectively.Present address: School of Physical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane 4001, Australia.     

Occurrence of roll circulations in a shallow boundary layer

Meteorological measurements taken at the Näsudden wind turbine site during slightly unstable conditions have been analyzed. The height of the convective boundary layer (CBL) was rather low, varying between 60 and 300 m. Turbulence statistics near the ground followed Monin-Obukhov similarity, whereas the remaining part of the boundary layer can be regarded as a near neutral upper layer. In 55% of the runs, horizontal roll vortices were found. Those were the most unstable runs, with -z _i/L > 5. Spectra and co-spectra are used to identify the structures. Three roll indicators were identified: (i) a low frequency peak in the spectrum of the lateral component at low level; (ii) a corresponding increase in the vertical component at mid-CBL; (iii) a positive covariance {ovvw} together with positive wind shear in the lateral direction (V/z) in the CBL. By applying these indicators, it is possible to show that horizontal roll circulations are likely to be a common phenomenon over the Baltic during late summer and early winter.     

Re-analysis of the nuclear winter phenomenon

Summary An analysis of the report of the (U.S.) National Academy of Sciences (NAS) on atmospheric effects of a nuclear exchange leads to conclusions that differ from those of the NAS and of the earlier TTAPS and AMBIO studies. Any cooling of the earth's surface is likely to beshort-lived because of rapid removal of the smoke clouds originating from nuclear burst-initiated fires, andminor because of appreciable green-house effects due to several distinct physical causes. (One of these, neglected in prior analyses, is the infrared absorption from cirrus clouds produced directly by the nuclear bursts.) Taken together, these effects may even induce slight surface warming (nuclear summer) instead of cooling (nuclear winter). The consequences to atmospheric ozone are similarly ambiguous; depending on the detailed nuclear scenario, the net ozone content may increase-rather than decrease as argued by TTAPS. Experiments could settle some uncertainties.With 2 Figures     

Analytical investigations of horizontal meso-scale momentum equations with Newtonian nudging

Summary This study presents an analytical investigation of the local behaviour of the solution to a mesoscale model with Newtonian nudging when observed winds are time varying. The analysis examines each Fourier component of the time series of observed winds. Unlike the case with a constant observed wind, the nudged wind vector does not asymptotically approach the observed wind. In response to sinusoidal oscillation of the observed wind, the nudged wind vector is always on a half circle connecting the vector ends of the observed and un-nudged modelled winds. When nudging parameter 0, the nudged wind vector approaches the un-nudged wind; when , the nudged wind vector approaches the observed wind. For commonly used values of nudging parameter , the modelled wind field always carries errors.A target nudging scheme is devised in this study in order to ensure the model result is identical to observed winds with sinusoidal oscillation. Investigation shows that such a target wind exists for a finite value of , and the magnitude of the target-nudging term is about the same as that of a normal nudging term if f, wheref is the Coriolis parameter and is the frequency of the wind oscillation.With 7 Figures     

Variangular wind spirals

The term variangular is introduced to emphasize a significant difference between the present and certain earlier solutions to the problem of organized airmotion within the planetary boundary layer. The latter belong to the family of equiangular wind spirals and have the characteristic that the angle () formed by the vectors of shearing stress and geostrophic departure is invariant with height; it is shown that in this spiral-family, parabolic height-dependency of the effective (eddy) diffusivity (K) alone is permitted, including the asymptotic case of constant K; the famous Ekman spiral as well as the Rossby spiral are two prominent members of the family of equiangular wind spirals. The new variangular theory, as the name implies, permits variation of with height (z) and produces more versatile profiles of wind and stress due to less restraint in K (z). As an example of comparison with observed data, monthly mean wind profiles obtained at Plateau Station, Antarctica, are selected since they exhibit a noteworthy degree of variangularity, in relatively satisfactory agreement with properties of the new theoretical model for wind spirals.National Research Council Visiting Scientist Research Associate, Regional Environments Division, Earth Sciences Laboratory.     

Grid transformation for incorporating the Arctic in a global ocean model

A grid transformation is described which isolates the Arctic and North Atlantic, rotates the spherical grid to pass an equator up the Atlantic through the north pole and remaps the Coriolis parameter. Boundary condition information is exchanged along the equatorial Atlantic so that the Arctic-Atlantic model is dynamically coupled to a model of the rest of the global ocean (which remains on the geographic spherical grid). The transform produces a more regular grid over the Arctic and eliminates the need for filtering or special treatment at the pole. The transform has been implemented in the GFDL Modular Ocean Model. After testing with idealized geometry, a 300 y global integration is compared to an integration using the geographic spherical grid and Fourier filtering. Results are similar, with differences in the Arctic and western North Atlantic regions leading to smaller air-sea heat flux near the Gulf Stream separation latitude for the transform case. Use of the transform also leads to a reduction in computation time.     

Trace gas exchange at the air/water interface: Measurements of mass accommodation coefficients

A liquid jet of 90 m diameter and variable length has been utilized to determine absorption rates and, hence, mass accommodation coefficients , of atmospheric trace gases. The compounds investigated are HCl (0.01), HNO₃ (0.01), N₂O₅ (0.005), peroxyacetyl nitrate (>0.001), and HONO (0.005). It is concluded that the absorption of these trace gases by liquid atmospheric water is not significantly retarded by interfacial mass transport. The strengths and limitations of the liquid jet technique for measuring mass accommodation coefficients are explored.     

A study of a fair weather boundary layer in TOGA-COARE: Parameterization of surface fluxes in large scale and regional models for light wind conditions

The study focuses on a way to parameterize the effect of subgrid scale convective motions on surface fluxes in large scale and regional models for the case of light surface winds. As previously proposed, these subgrid effects are assumed to scale with the convection intensity through the relationship: where is the mean velocity of the wind, U₀ the velocity of the mean wind, w_* the free convection velocity, and an empirical coefficient to be determined. Both observations and numerical simulation are presently used to determine the free convection coefficient .Large eddy simulation of a fair weather convective boundary layer case observed during TOGA-COARE is performed. Comparisons between observations and the simulation of surface properties and vertical profiles in the planetary boundary layer are presented. The simulated vertical turbulent fluxes of heat, moisture and buoyancy range well within estimates from aircraft measurements.The most important result is that the true free convection coefficient , directly estimated from simulation, leads to a value of 0.65, smaller than the ones estimated from temporal and spatial variances. Using observations and simulation, estimates of from temporal and spatial variances are obtained with similar values 0.8. From both theoretical derivations and numerical computations, it is shown that estimates of the true from variances are possible but only after applying a correction factor equal to 0.8. If this correction is not used, is overestimated by about 25%. The time and space sampling problem is also addressed in using numerical simulations.