广东佛山EF3级龙卷超级单体风暴高分辨率数值模拟

本文对2015年10月4日发生于广东佛山地区台风"彩虹"登陆后螺旋云带中的一次强龙卷风过程进行高分辨率（148 m,48 m）数值模拟,结果产生了类龙卷涡旋（Tornado-Like Vortex,TLV）,最接近观测到的龙卷风,并对龙卷超级单体及产生龙卷的TLV系统的三维动热力精细化结构进行诊断分析.结果表明,此次龙卷产生于超级单体右侧边缘,钩状回波显著,伴有明显的中气旋活动.模拟的龙卷超级单体与之前观测研究和理想化建模的龙卷超级单体结构相类似,超级单体后部云墙之下低层水成物呈现狭窄的触地漏斗状结构,对应低层的TLV系统;TLV具有中心气流下沉和周围气流上升的动力结构,对应上宽下窄的强烈涡管.与之前的研究相比,本次台风螺旋云带中的超级单体中后部入流较弱,出流较强,其前部气流上升存在水合物聚集.相对螺旋度（Storm Relative Helicity,SRH）的分析表明,超级单体的发展伴随正负SRH的增大,龙卷发生在SRH正负高值区的交界处.     

辽宁开原龙卷强对流过程的扰动天气环境

2019年7月3日下午辽宁部分地区出现短时强降水和冰雹等强对流天气,其中开原市金钩子镇遭遇了龙卷风,造成当地严重的生命财产损失.本文重点分析有利于这次龙卷和冰雹等强对流过程发生的大气变量扰动环境,包括数值模式预报产品中的扰动天气环境以及雷达回波和卫星云图演变对应的大气扰动风场变化特征.结果发现:开原单个龙卷与苏北多次单个龙卷发生的大气温压场扰动环境相似,发生地位于对流层上部下伸到地面的位势高度扰动槽线和近地面水平方向上冷暖温度扰动气团交界线附近,其冷暖扰动气团之间的强度对比较美国多龙卷爆发时的弱小.利用来自欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)模式产品和美国国家环境预报中心全球预报系统(NCEP/GFS)的实时分析资料进行扰动环流形势分析并与当地实况卫星云图和雷达回波相结合,可以从潜在趋势上定性地推断有利于强对流天气发展的位置.     

中国热带气旋龙卷的气候统计特征(2006~2018)

文章调查了2006至2018年中国热带气旋龙卷(简称TC龙卷)的发生情况.在这13年间,共有64次TC龙卷记录,平均每年发生约5次.约三分之一的登陆热带气旋至少有一个龙卷生成.这些TC龙卷主要发生在热带气旋临近登陆或登陆后36小时内的午后,集中于距离热带气旋中心500 km范围内.大多数TC龙卷位于地形相对平坦的沿海地区,其中江苏和广东是中国TC龙卷发生频次最大的两个省份.此外,文章还揭示了两个值得注意的特征:(1)中国的TC龙卷主要生成于TC中心的东北象限,而非TC移动方向的右前象限;(2)与美国相比,中国大多数TC龙卷生成于强度相对较弱的热带气旋(如热带低压、热带风暴).进一步分析表明,中国的TC龙卷倾向于在具有较大低层风暴相对螺旋度和较大对流有效位能(考虑夹卷效应)的环境中产生.中国2018年的TC龙卷尤其活跃,共有24次TC龙卷记录,占总样本数的37.5%.中国现代气象史上的首次龙卷爆发事件发生于台风摩羯(2018)中,至少有11个龙卷生成.此龙卷爆发事件发生于摩羯与中纬度中层槽的相互作用阶段,且伴随着较强的中高层干空气侵入过程.     

基于三亚VHF雷达的场向不规则体观测研究:1.电离层E区连续性回波

基于三亚(109.6°E,18.4°N)VHF电离层相干散射雷达观测,分析了我国低纬电离层E区场向不规则结构连续性回波的发生特征.研究结果表明:白天,E区连续性回波的多普勒速度范围为-50至25m/s,多普勒宽度主要分布在20至70m/s;连续性回波的高度大约以1km/h的速度缓慢下降,与偶发E层(Es)底部所在高度(hbEs)有很好的相关性,表明在背景电场影响下,Es经梯度漂移不稳定性产生场向不规则结构,引起E区连续性回波.夜间,E区连续性回波的多普勒速度范围为-50至50m/s,多普勒宽度为20至110m/s,回波在时间-高度-强度图上常呈现多层结构,可能与潮汐引起的多个离子层相关;而E区连续性回波的短暂中断,以及120km以上高E区连续性回波的发生,则可能归因于赤道扩展F极化电场的影响.此外,对E区连续性回波多普勒速度与全天空流星雷达风场观测的比较发现,在100km以下,多普勒速度与子午风场有很好的相关性.     

钠多普勒激光雷达回波光子数仿真及大气参数反演

钠多普勒激光雷达利用中层顶区域的钠原子作为示踪物,探测中层顶区域大气风场和温度剖面.本文主要分析钠多普勒激光雷达的探测原理和大气参数反演算法.利用MSISE和HWM93等大气模型给出背景大气温度、密度及风场,并给定钠原子数密度剖面,从激光雷达方程出发,模拟计算了激光雷达的瑞利散射和钠共振荧光散射回波光子数.利用模拟的回波光子数剖面数据,反演得到大气温度、视线风速和钠原子数密度剖面,反演结果与模拟计算用的背景参数符合很好,验证了这一反演方法的正确性.分析了激光频率偏移和激光线宽变化对反演精度的影响.     

湘西北地区一次局地特大暴雨分析

利用多普勒雷达资料和闪电定位资料,对2006年8月24日晚常德西北地区的局部特大暴雨成因进行分析,结果表明MCV的不断生成与合并维持MCC的生命史,3个MCC组成一个有组织的MCS,中尺度辐合线是造成特大暴雨的主要原因,回波的生成和发展趋向暖湿气流流入的方向,中低层东南暖湿气流为特大暴雨提供充足水汽,闪电活动的开始指示强降水的开始,南北向地形的抬升作用有利于回波维持和加强,提高回波降水效率和延长降水时间。     

长江流域梅雨锋暴雨过程的中尺度结构个例分析

利用外场试验资料, 用双多普勒雷达技术和径向速度场分析方法, 研究了2002年7月22~23日发生在长江流域一次暴雨过程的中尺度结构动力特征和演变过程. 结果表明, 在西南-东北取向1000 km长的暴雨雨带中, 存在有许多尺度在20~50 km大小的β或γ中尺度强回波带或回波团, 在长江中游, 混合性强降水雨带在长200 km以上的低空切变线上形成; 在切变线南侧的低空西南急流和北侧的偏东气流共同作用下形成上升气流, 对流云得到发展, 切变线低空风场的扰动、中尺度切变和β中尺度辐合是造成对流发展的原因; 新回波常常在老回波右后侧生成, 并移向西南气流区, 从而得到充足的水汽, 这种回波发展旺盛, 持续时间长. β中尺度对流系统常常伴有尺度更小的中尺度涡旋和中尺度辐合等γ中尺度结构, 这些γ中尺度结构在强对流的发展过程中也起了很重要的作用.     

基于CloudSat资料的北上江淮气旋暴雪云系结构特征

2007年3月3-5日和2013年11月24-25日,受江淮气旋北上影响,我国北方大部地区遭遇罕见暴风雪天气,2次暴雪过程有很多相似之处.利用常规观测、CloudSat卫星云廓线雷达的探测资料和NECP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了这2次暴雪过程江淮气旋云系结构和微物理特征.结果表明：（1）北上江淮气旋的冷锋云系较窄,以深厚对流云为主,回波核心在2~7 km,其结构在气旋发展的不同阶段变化不大;（2）逗点头云系范围宽广,在气旋的不同发展阶段,结构和强度有显著差异.气旋初始锋面波动和锋面断裂阶段,逗点头云系有两个降水区：北部为由多个单体组成的大范围层状云区,强回波从地表向上伸展,上空有高空对流泡,建立了播撒云-供水云机制,有利于下部冰晶粒子长大;南部有对流云柱发展.逗点头西部的冷输送带云系主要集中在6 km以下,强度弱,冰粒子含量少;（3）气旋暖锋后弯阶段,干侵入加强,冷锋后部的无云区或少云区范围扩大,逗点头云系南北范围收缩、变窄,云系的高度、强度和含水量减弱,冷锋云系也减弱;（4）气旋冷锋云系和逗点头南部的对流云柱以降雨为主,位于高纬度陆地上的逗点头云系以降雪为主,当逗点头云系处于海上有对流不稳定发展,以降雨为主.冷锋云系北部和逗点头云系南部均有由层积云或高积云组成的低云,以毛毛雨为主.冷锋云系和逗点头云系北部100-200 km的范围为随高度和距离逐渐变薄的高层云,无降水对应.     

基于双金属球三维电场探空仪的一次雷暴云内电荷结构观测研究

本文自主研制性能稳定的双金属球三维电场探空仪,并结合气象探空仪等构建了雷暴电场-气象综合探空系统,实现了雷暴云内三维电场及温度、湿度的同步测量.2019年夏季对华北平原地区雷暴开展穿云观测,并结合地面大气电场、雷达回波、变分多普勒雷达分析系统(VDRAS)反演的动力场等资料进行综合研究,首次给出该地区雷暴云内的电场和电荷结构分布特征.对2019年8月7日发生的一次中尺度对流系统电场探空发现,在雷暴减弱阶段,其弱回波区内存在5个极性交替的电荷区:4.4~5.6 km之间的上部正电荷区(0℃附近)、3.6~4.4 km之间的中部负电荷区和1.0~3.6 km之间的下部正电荷区,此外在1 km下方有一个负极性电荷区,雷暴云顶附近5.7~6.9 km之间为一个弱负极性屏蔽电荷区.其中,中部负电荷区和下部正电荷区由多个不同强度、不同厚度的电荷层构成.此外,电场探空系统在中部负电荷区高度范围内经历的上升—下沉—再次上升的往返探空数据表明,雷暴云内动力环境复杂,电荷结构分布相似但又有所差异,反映了实际雷暴云内电荷分布的时空不均匀性和复杂性.     

气象卫星大气导风研究进展和未来展望

本文主要回顾了气象卫星导风的发展历程并对未来发展方向进行了阐述.引言部分首先回顾发展历程并介绍了导风发展史上的一些里程碑事件，分别对中国、美国、欧洲以及日本的气象卫星导风情况进行了简要介绍.第一节详细总结了多种传统气象卫星导风算法的特点和关键技术，介绍了交叉相关法、形态辨认法以及亚像元法.此外，还描述了五种较为常用的高度指定算法，对传统导风追踪算法以及高度指定算法的原理进行了详细地描述.第二节归纳了最近几年基于计算机视觉和机器学习技术发展起来的多种新体制的气象卫星导风产品，分别介绍了光流法、三维导风以及中尺度导风的优势和研究背景.最后，对比了传统与新型气象卫星各种导风算法的优缺点，展望了未来的发展趋势和应用前景.特别是指出光流法导风有着空间分辨率高、三维导风能得到更多层风场的信息、中尺度导风则能对特殊天气如热带气旋实现高时空分辨率的观测的优势，并提出三维导风与中尺度导风的应用研究将是未来重要发展方向.     

Numerical simulation of 23 June 2016 Yancheng City EF4 tornadic supercell and analysis of lightning activity

Based on the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model that features charging and discharging parameterization, relationships between tornado, hail and lightning were investigated for a tornado-producing (EF4 intensity) supercell thunderstorm over Yancheng City in Jiangsu Province, China, on 23 June 2016. Based on a sounding at 0800, there was a low lifting condensation level, substantial convective available potential energy (CAPE), and strong vertical wind shear near Yancheng City, which promote supercell development. At 1400, observations revealed that hail production and a dramatic increase of positive cloud-to-ground flash rates occurred simultaneously, maximizing five minutes later. The tornado occurred 30 min after the hail production. The time of minimum positive cloud-to-ground flash rates was 15 min later. The simulation indicated that the tornadic supercell moved eastward and that positive cloud-to-ground flash rates increased dramatically at 1400, the same as observed, but their maximum was 5 min later than observed. The simulated updraft volume peaked at 1425 and the simulated downdraft volume maximized 5 min later, when the mesocyclone formed. Simulated reflectivities showed no hook echo and horizontal winds for different height at mid-low levels had a different cyclonic shear at 1430, favorable to mesocyclone formation. Based on the simulated results, the region of positively charged graupel ascended resulting from the region of high liquid water content was lifted by the strong updraft, forming a mid-level strong positive charge region. A lower negative charge region formed by the inductive charging mechanism of collisions between graupel and droplets at the bottom of the cloud, conducive to positive cloud-to-ground flashes.     

Internal airflow of a convective storm from dual-Doppler radar measurements

The dual-Doppler radar coplane method of scanning and data reduction has been used to determine the internal airflow and radar reflectivity structure of a convective storm. Cumulus convection growing in a moderately sheared wind environment resulted in a nonsteady, moderate intensity thunderstorm. Precipitation fallout and downward moving air are found downshear of an updraft inclined in the downshear direction. Rapid storm translation, vertical shear of the ambient wind, and slow subcloud ascent of inflow air act to establish this observed draft configuration. The absence of significant cold air outflow and its attendant gust front at the surface is attributed to (i) appreciable inflow of slow moving air into the downdraft at the middle layers and (ii) the fact that the potentially coldest air was located too low to contribute significantly to a deep downdraft circulation.     

沿海地区一次多单体雷暴电荷结构时空演变

利用闪电放电辐射源三维时空分布测量,分析了山东低海拔地区一次多单体雷暴过程的电荷结构演变以及与回波强度的关系.结果表明对流云区电荷结构是典型的上正下负电偶极结构,且随着雷暴发展正负电荷层强度增大,高度抬升.负电荷区处在40 dBz以上的强回波区域中,正电荷层处在约40 dBz区域中.层状云区也有类似结构,只是强度弱,高度低.观测到的四层电荷结构是出现在对流区消散阶段,此时,由于云体不同部位的不同消散程度,电荷结构发生断裂,云体前部正负电荷区下沉,云体中部正负电荷区高度变化不大,但负电荷区域变薄,呈现出四层电荷结构.从本例结果说明,雷暴优势起电机制通常能形成电偶极或三极性结构,多极结构可能不是起电形成.本文还分析了一次负地闪传输过程,和宏观电荷结构很好吻合,说明利用三维定位系统观测,可以较好地描述雷暴宏观电荷结构.     

Meso-α and meso-β network analyses of a severe storm complex during SESAME-AVE-V

Presented in this paper are meso-α and meso-β network analyses of thermodynamics and kinematics related to the formation of a severe storm complex on 20 May 1979 during SESAME-AVE-V. The storm organizes in the mesonetwork by mid-afternoon ahead of a nearly east-west-aligned quasistationary pressure trough. By mid-morning a tongue of high mixing ratios develops south of the trough in northern Texas and southern Oklahoma. In response to strong differential solar heating and the moist tongue, a pronounced low-level ϑ_e maximum appears in this region. Convective activity to the south of the trough is inhibited by a low-level stable layer in the region. Sinking motion aloft enhances the stable layer. At midday the pressure trough accelerates southward and intensifies, strengthening low-level convergence, which in turn induces a well-defined vertical circulation in the meso-β network. The vertical motion in the circulation pushes the air to its lifting condensation level, and the convective instability is released. Detailed analyses of data in the meso-β network indicate that the induced vertical circulation appears 90 min prior to radar echo development in the cross-section. The circulation at this time indicates a doublet of ascent-descent of equal magnitude. The peak value of upward motion appears at mid-levels first and then moves upwards and intensifies with time. In the mature stage the storm complex appears to have a strong influence on the upper-level horizontal-flow field.     

Detailed observational study of a weak Echo region

High resolution 3-cm weather radar was used to observe the three dimensional structure of a weak echo region of a severe convective storm in northern Minnesota, U.S.A. Observations show that a seemingly steady-state updraft in the lower portion of the storm broke into an unsteady structure in the upper levels. This is interpreted as indicating that precipitation loading gradually decelerated the upper reaches of the updraft, resulting in periodic breakout of a new updraft core on the inflow side. This periodic behavior of the updraft may be related to hailstreaks and what has been termed the multi-celled storm.     

Structures of Mesocirculations Producing Tornadoes Associated with Tropical Cyclone Frances (1998)

Radar structures of one mesocyclone and one mesocirculation (the term mesocirculation refers to a class of rotating updrafts, which may or may not be as spatially and temporally large as a typical mesocyclone) that developed a total of four tornadoes in association with Tropical Cyclone (TC) Frances 1998 are presented. One tornado developed within an inner rainband near the time of landfall while three of the other tornadoes developed within an outer rainband nearly 24 hours after the landfall. Radar reflectivities of the tornadic circulations averaged upwards of 40 dBZ while Doppler radar wind components directed toward the radar averaged 11 m s−1. It is realized that although TC Frances was a minimal hurricane it spawned several tornadoes (four of which were studied) causing damage exceeding $2 million. These tornadoes were not all located close to the TC center, serving as a caution to forecasters and emergency personnel that the immediate landfalling area is not the only place to watch.While it is difficult to accurately predict the TC tornado location and time of occurrence, the degree of low-level baroclinicity seems to play an important role in tornadogenesis. Another significant finding is that the tornadoes were produced on the inward side of an inner rainband, as well as the inward side of an outer rainband. Consistent with climatology, the forward right quadrant of the TC developed the four tornadoes studied here.The lead author, Professor G. V. Rao died 31 July 2004 at the age of 70. He fell victime to the waves while swimming in Mazatlan, Mexico. This is the last paper he publilshed as lead author.     

海南岛海风雷暴结构的数值模拟

本文利用高分辨率WRF模式对2012年7月20日发生在海南地区的一次海风雷暴过程进行模拟,探讨了海南岛复杂地形下海风雷暴的结构、发展演变过程及其触发机制.结果表明,海南岛北部向内陆传播的海风与南部受地形阻挡的海风相遇后会形成海风辐合带,辐合带能影响当地的散度和涡旋特征,为雷暴的发生发展提供有利的动力和热力学条件.海南岛受热带海洋的影响较大,当地的水汽条件和对流潜势长期保持着有利于对流发展的状态,自由对流高度始终处于较低的位置,一旦海风辐合带来的抬升运动克服对流抑制到达自由对流高度后,对流就能自主地发展起来,所以单纯的海风辐合也常常能触发当地的强雷暴.雷暴发生发展过程中对流参数存在明显的变化,其演变曲线的突变位置对雷暴的发生有一定的指示作用.海南岛的海风雷暴过程与当地的复杂地形密切相关,地形的动力阻挡作用影响着低层海风的辐合以及对流的发展.     

Occurrence conditions of positive cloud-to-ground flashes in severe thunderstorms

The purpose of this study was to understand the reasons why frequent positive cloud-to-ground (+CG) flashes occur in severe thunderstorms. A three-dimensional dynamics-electrification coupled model was used to simulate a severe thunderstorm to permit analysis of the conditions that might easily cause +CG flashes. The results showed that strong updrafts play an important role in the occurrence of intracloud flashes. However, frequent +CG flashes require not only strong updrafts but also strong downdrafts in the lower cloud region, conditions that correspond to the later phase of the mature stage and the period of the heaviest solid precipitation of a thunderstorm. During this stage, strong updrafts elevated each charge area in the updraft region to a higher level, which resulted in an inverted tripole charge structure. A wide mid-level region of strong positive charge caused largely by positively charged graupel, presented in the middle of the updraft region because of a non-inductive ice-ice collisional charging mechanism. The charge structure in the downdraft region was consistently more complex and revealed several vertically stacked charge regions, alternating in polarity. Much of the graupel/hail outside the updrafts was lowered to cloud-base by strong downdrafts. In this area, the graupel/hail was charged negatively because of the transportation of negatively charged graupel/hail from higher regions of negative charge in the updrafts, and via the inductive charging mechanism of collisions between graupel/hail and cloud droplets at the bottom of the cloud. Consequently, a large region of negative charge formed near the ground. This meant that +CG flashes were initiated more easily in the lower inverted dipole, i.e., the middle region of positive charge and lower region of negative charge. Frequent +CG flashes began almost synchronously with dramatic increases in the storm updrafts, hail volume, and total flash rate. Therefore, the occurrence of +CG flashes appears a good indicator of storm intensification and it could have some use as a predictor of severe weather in the form of hail.