基于GPS数据的海原-六盘山断裂带滑动速率亏损时空分布

利用青藏高原东北缘及周缘地区1999—2007年和2009—2014年2个时段的GPS水平运动速度场做约束,反演获取了海原-六盘山断裂带的闭锁程度和滑动速率亏损的时空分布演化。结果表明,海原断裂带以左旋走滑亏损为主,六盘山断裂北段以逆冲倾滑速率亏损为主,南段则以正向倾滑为主。其中,毛毛山断裂和老虎断裂西段在2个时段的闭锁深度都达到25km,最大左旋滑动亏损为6mm/a。老虎山东段和海原断裂(狭义)闭锁程度低,主要处于蠕滑状态。六盘山断裂2个时段的闭锁深度可达35km,最大逆冲滑动速率亏损为2mm/a。汶川地震后,六盘山断裂上逆冲滑动速率亏损高值区由中段迁移至北段且范围减小,南段则变成正倾滑速率亏损。毛毛山、老虎山西段和六盘山断裂的地震危险性要明显高于海原-六盘山断裂带其他断层段。     

利用GRACE时变重力场反演青藏高原的隆升速率

青藏高原隆升对中国、亚洲乃至世界的气候都有着重要影响,研究青藏高原地壳隆升速率具有重大意义.本文利用2004—2015年期间高覆盖度的卫星重力数据,通过去除陆地储水的重力效应获得地壳隆升引起的重力变化速率,基于直立长方体垂直运动与重力变化的关系模型反演了该区域的地壳隆升速率分布.研究结果表明在300 km的空间尺度下青藏高原隆升速率分布具有不均匀的特点,表现为以冈底斯山—唐古拉山—鲜水河断裂带为界线,其两侧的速率差异较大.位于界线以南,沿喜马拉雅推覆构造带的区域平均隆升速率为2.01±0.87 mm·a^-1,其中西侧的印度板块与东侧的缅甸板块隆升速率分别为~2.43 mm·a^-1、~2.89 mm·a^-1,位于两板块之间的区域隆升速率为~0.69 mm·a^-1;位于界线以北,除了天山区域和华北板块的隆升速率为~1 mm·a^-1,其他区域隆升现象不明显,其速率为~0 mm·a^-1.我们发现存在两条均穿过正断裂带区域的隆升速率梯度带,其中一条为从加德满都到塔里木盆地,其恰好穿过青藏高原内部的正断裂带,另一条为从那加山到四川盆地,其恰好穿过大理正断裂带.本文反演的青藏高原隆升速率与以往观测到的GPS结果有很好的一致性,为青藏高原隆升、地壳增厚等科学问题提供理论支持.     

川西理塘断裂带平均滑动速率、地震破裂分段与复发特征

理塘断裂带是川西北次级块体内部的一条活动断裂带.野外调查获得其晚第四纪断错、近代地震破裂、破裂分段的新证据, 估算出断裂的滑动速率、特征地震震级与复发间隔.结果表明, 理塘断裂带由毛垭坝盆地北缘、理塘和康嘎-德巫等三条次级断裂组成, 以左旋走滑为主, 不同部位伴有不等的逆倾滑分量. 由7个地点的断错地貌及相关沉积物年龄估算断裂带距今约14 ka以来的平均左旋滑动速率为4.0±1.0 mm/a, 垂直(逆)滑动速率0.1~1.8 mm/a; 三条次级断裂均为独立的地震破裂段, 相应特征地震最大矩震级估值为7.0~7.3, 平均复发间隔为500~1000年, 北西段最晚地震破裂发生在距今119±2 a之前, 中段发生在公元1890年前后, 南东段则发生在公元1948年, 显示出与段落之间应力触发作用有关的地震破裂事件沿断裂带单向迁移的特点.     

安宁河—则木河断裂带和大凉山断裂带孕震深度研究及其地震危险性

安宁河—则木河断裂带及东侧的大凉山断裂带作为大凉山次级块体西侧与东侧边界,具有发生大地震的活动构造背景.本文意在用有限的形变数据和地震数据两种资料评估大凉山次级块体边界断裂带的孕震深度及其地震危险性.采用弹性半空间模型对安宁河断裂、则木河断裂和大凉山断裂带滑动速率和闭锁深度进行了详细分析;计算了90%、95%和99%不同分位数的小震深度下界值并与GPS得到的闭锁深度进行对比,分析二者异同点.结果显示,安宁河断裂北段闭锁深度为6.2 km,不到90%分位小震震源深度16 km的一半,表明该段在1952年M_S6³/₄地震后,断层逐渐趋于闭锁;而在6~16 km深度主要以小地震和无震滑动两种形式释放能量,存在深部蠕滑运动.大凉山断裂北段在0~10 km范围内完全闭锁,而10~25 km闭锁程度较弱.安宁河断裂南段、则木河断裂、大凉山断裂中段和南段均处于完全闭锁阶段,闭锁深度接近90%分位数小震深度的下界值,标准差约为0.94 km.此外,A、B、C三个剖面的反演结果表明大凉山次级块体的运动自北向南具有顺时针旋转特性,与川滇块体顺时针运动特征吻合.大凉山次级块体北、中、南三段边界断裂及块体内部总的滑动速率分别为9.8 mm·a^-1、8.9 mm·a^-1和8.4 mm·a^-1,呈自北向南递减趋势.大凉山断裂南段布拖断裂和交际河断裂积累的能量分别能够发生一次矩震级为M_W7.5的地震,离逝时间已经接近地震平均复发间隔,未来100年大地震的发震概率分别为7.1%和5.9%,应对其地震危险性给予重视.     

滇西南地区孟连断裂晚第四纪走滑速率的厘定

通过卫星影像解译和野外实地调查,获得滇西南地区孟连断裂的几何特征和活动性参数。孟连断裂总体走向NE-NEE向,不具有明显的分段性,连续性较好。断裂从单侧控制着沿线的勐滨、孟连和勐马三个新生代盆地的发育。断裂沿线地貌以线性较好的断层谷、断层崖和断层陡坎为主,并发育多级左旋位错的河流、冲沟和阶（台）地等,观测到的最小左旋位错约为7 m。采用高精度Li-DAR测量方法,对4处典型水平位错地貌进行精细测量,根据获得的相应地貌面年代,得到孟连断裂晚第四纪以来平均左旋走滑速率为2.2±0.4 mm/a。其结果与滇西南地区其他NE向左旋走滑断裂滑动速率相当,反映了区域构造活动的整体协调性。根据跨断层地质体最大左旋位错量9.5±1.8 km,估算断裂开始左旋走滑的时代为距今4.7±1.6 Ma左右,即中新世中晚期。     

东昆仑断裂滑动速率变化及其对2017年九寨沟地震的应力加载

为了解东昆仑断裂活动对2017年8月8日九寨沟M_S7.0地震的影响,本文选取1999—2007年、2013—2017年GPS速度场作为约束,基于块体-位错模型反演计算东昆仑断裂两个时间段的块体运动速率、断裂滑动速率和滑动亏损率,并进一步研究青藏高原东缘最大剪应变率场和九寨沟震区的震间库仑应力累积速率.结果显示,东昆仑断裂中西段左旋走滑速率较高,东段走滑速率较低,自西向东逐步递减,存在明显的梯度.在两个时间段,阿坝块体刚性运动的方向顺时针偏转0.2°,运动速率由12.22mm·a^-1增大到15.96mm·a^-1;东昆仑断裂左旋走滑速率升高,其中西段较为明显(升高约1.2±0.3mm·a^-1);东昆仑断裂东段闭锁深度和闭锁程度增加;2013—2017年,东昆仑断裂滑动引起的九寨沟震区库仑应力累积速率是1999—2007年的3倍,最大剪应变率也明显升高.因此本文认为:2008年汶川地震和2013年芦山地震后,龙门山断裂部分解锁,阿坝地块活动性增强,东昆仑断裂滑动速率增大,导致九寨沟震区库仑应力加载速率增加,加速了九寨沟地震的孕育过程.     

用GPS数据反演海原断裂带断层滑动速率和闭锁深度

以"中国地壳运动观测网络"区域站在海原断裂带附近的所有观测数据及跨断裂GPS剖面观测数据作为约束,用Smith 3-D体力模型反演了海原断裂带断层滑动速率和断层闭锁深度.从西到东断裂共分为5段,采用遗传算法拟合GPS水平运动速度场,拟合残差均方根为1.1 mm/a.反演结果为:毛毛山断裂左旋走滑运动速率为3.5 mm/a,闭锁深度为22.0km;老虎山断裂左旋走滑速率为6.5 mm/a,闭锁深度为10.3 km;海原断裂带西段、中段和东段的滑动速率依次为4.5 mm/a、5.6 mm/a和5.5 mm/a,闭锁深度依次为8.4 km、3.6km和4.3 km.表明毛毛山断裂左旋走滑运动速率小,闭锁深度大,有利于应变能的积累,使得该断裂及附近地区存在发生强震的背景.     

青藏高原东北缘主要断裂闭锁特征和滑动亏损研究

利用1999—2015年GPS水平速度场, 基于块体-位错模型, 反演了青藏高原东北缘4条主要断裂(海原断裂, 六盘山断裂, 陇县—宝鸡断裂, 西秦岭北缘断裂)的闭锁程度和滑动亏损速率的空间分布, 并分析了各断裂的地震危险性。 结果显示, 六盘山断裂南段、 陇县-宝鸡断裂北段、 西秦岭北缘断裂东段闭锁程度最强, 闭锁深度达到24 km左右; 西秦岭北缘断裂东段滑动亏损速率最大, 平均值达到3 mm/a; 六盘山断裂南段、 陇县—宝鸡断裂北段滑动亏损速率平均值达到1.9 mm/a, 稍弱于西秦岭北缘断裂东段; 海原断裂闭锁程度和滑动亏损速率相对较小, 闭锁程度和滑动亏损都仅分布在浅部。 我们认为现阶段海原断裂的地震危险性相对较小, 六盘山断裂南段、 陇县—宝鸡北段、 西秦岭北缘断裂东段地震危险性高于这些断裂的其他段落。 这些结果对于青藏高原东北缘地震危险性判定和地震灾害评估具有参考意义。     

大凉山断裂带北段东支——竹马断裂晚第四纪活动性

大凉山断裂带是川滇菱形活动块体东边界的重要组成部分,其活动习性和滑动速率对于了解青藏高原东南缘的块体运动和构造变形具有重要的理论意义,同时对于该地区地震危险性评价和地震中长期预测有着重要的应用价值。大凉山断裂带由6条分支断裂构成,竹马断裂是其北段的一条分支。文中在详细野外调查的基础上,通过典型构造地貌的高精度GPS测量和断错时间的约束,得出竹马断裂是一条以左旋走滑为主的全新世活动断裂,全新世以来的水平滑动速率为1.5~3.1mm/a;利用古地震探槽揭示出竹马断裂的2次古地震事件时间分别为(50.3±5.7)~30ka BP和30~(17.4±1.2)ka BP。考虑到断裂带北段还存在一条与竹马断裂平行的分支断裂——公益海断裂,大凉山断裂带北段的滑动速率与南段基本一致。鲜水河-小江断裂系中段在大凉山断裂带上分配的滑动速率与并行的安宁河断裂带和则木河断裂带也大体相当,断裂系中段的滑动速率之和与南北两段的速率大致吻合。大凉山断裂带的存在使断裂系在几何上成为一个完整的弧形构造,也弥补了中段滑动速率的亏损,使各段的滑动保持协调一致。此外,沿竹马断裂大量发育的冲洪积台地,根据沉积特征和测年结果,认为是新仙女木事件后末次冰消期的冰川融水形成的冰水堆积,类似的地貌面可能广泛分布于青藏高原东南缘。     

用GPS数据反演海原断裂带断层滑动速率和闭锁深度c

以ldquo;中国地壳运动观测网络rdquo;区域站在海原断裂带附近的所有观测数据及跨断裂GPS剖面观测数据作为约束,用Smith 3-D体力模型反演了海原断裂带断层滑动速率和断层闭锁深度．从西到东断裂共分为5段,采用遗传算法拟合GPS水平运动速度场,拟合残差均方根为1.1mm/a.反演结果为:毛毛山断裂左旋走滑运动速率为3.5mm/a,闭锁深度为22.0km;老虎山断裂左旋走滑速率为6.5mm/a,闭锁深度为１10.3km;海原断裂带西段、中段和东段的滑动速率依次为4.5mm/a、5.6mm/a和5.5mm/a,闭锁深度依次为8.4km、3.6km和4.3km．表明毛毛山断裂左旋走滑运动速率小,闭锁深度大,有利于应变能的积累,使得该断裂及附近地区存在发生强震的背景．      

基于GPS速度场研究鄂拉山断裂现今滑动速率和闭锁状态

鄂拉山断裂是位于青藏高原东北缘的一条右旋走滑断裂,前人通过野外地质考察厘定了其万年尺度的长期滑动速率,但对其现今运动学特征的认识仍不足.本文利用近二十年获取的GPS速度场,以贝叶斯理论作为断层滑动反演的理论框架,采用MCMC(马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗)方法,构建鄂拉山断裂的运动学模型,探讨该断裂的现今震间滑动速率和闭锁状态.研究结果表明,鄂拉山断裂的闭锁深度约为15 km,深部的滑动速率为5.0±1.5 mm·a^-1,反映了断层两侧地壳的整体相对运动速率.尽管当前研究区的GPS观测台站分布相对稀疏,但仍可以探测出断层闭锁状态沿走向的变化.在断层中段,由于几何形态的变化,形成了强闭锁的凹凸体,闭锁系数达到0.6~0.7;断层的南段和北段有明显的蠕滑特征,计算得到的闭锁系数仅为0.2~0.3.进一步计算凹凸体上由于滑动亏损产生的等效地震矩积累率为2.35×10^17 N·m/a,等同于M W5.6地震的能量水平.最后,针对研究区域GPS台站分布稀疏的局限,本研究基于滑动模型的误差最小化准则,给出有限资源条件下的GPS台站优化增设方案.     

综合利用多种地壳形变观测资料计算鲜水河断裂带现今滑动速率

本文首先沿走向将鲜水河断裂带划分为炉霍、道孚、乾宁、康定和磨西五个断裂段,利用沿断裂带布设的跨断层短基线、短水准场地测量资料计算了近场的断层活动参数,利用覆盖断裂带相对较大区域的重力、GPS观测资料计算了重力场动态变化、GPS速度场.基于重力场动态变化和GPS速度场采用蚁群算法和粒子群算法(具有全局优化的优势)分别反演计算了五个断裂段断层活动参数,将结果中的走滑分量作为五个断裂段的现今走滑速率.通过对以上三类现今走滑速率及五个断裂段的地质平均滑动速率进行融合与对比分析,将重力资料反演计算结果作为断裂带整体走滑速率,与跨断层短基线、短水准测量计算的断层滑动速率结果进行对比分析,初步判定了各跨断层短基线、短水准场地所跨断裂的性质,最终给出了五个断裂段的现今整体左旋走滑速率和部分分支断裂左旋走滑速率,结果为:(1)炉霍段为9.13mm·a~(-1),虾拉沱区域西支断裂为2.46mm·a~(-1),东支断裂为5.84mm·a~(-1).(2)道孚段为8.57mm·a~(-1),东南段沟普区域西支断裂为1.78mm·a~(-1),东支断裂为6.79mm·a~(-1).(3)乾宁段为7.67mm·a~(-1).(4)康定段为6.14mm·a~(-1).(5)磨西段为4.41mm·a~(-1).本文还定性讨论了断裂带两侧重力、GPS测点覆盖范围内活动地块的三维弹塑性变形和古地震、历史地震造成的永久位错.     

Deformation of the Haiyuan-Liupanshan fault zone inferred from the denser GPS observations

The Haiyuan-Liupanshan fault,an active tectonic feature at the Tibetan Plateau's northeastern boundary,was ruptured by two MS earthquakes(1920 and 1927)bracketing an unbroken section(the Tianzhu seismic gap).A high seismic hazard is expected along the gap.To monitor deformation characteristics and do a seismic risk assessment,we made measurements at two newly built campaign-mode Global Positioning System(GPS) stations and 13 pre-existing stations in 2013 and 2014.Adding existing data from 1999 to 2014,we derived a new velocity field.Based on the horizontal velocity,we used three block models to invert the deformation of four crustal blocks.The results suggest non-uniform deformation in the interior of the Lanzhou block,the Ordos block and the Alaxan block,but uniform deformation in the Qilian block.Fault slip rates derived from block models show a decreasing trend from west to east,(2.0-3.2 mm/a on the Haiyuan fault to 0.9-1.5 mm/a on the Liupanshan fault).The Haiyuan fault evidences sinistral striking-slip movement,while the Liupanshan fault is primarily thrusting due to transformation of the displacement between the strike-slip and crustal shortening.The locking depth of each segment along the Haiyuan fault obtained by fitting the fault parallel velocities varies drastically from west to east(21.8-7.1 km).The moment accumulation rate,calculated using the slip rate and locking depth,is positively correlated with the locking depth.Given the paucity of large seismic events during the previous millennium,the Tuolaishan segment and the Maomaoshan segment have higher likelihood of nucleation for a future event.     

鄂尔多斯块体周缘地区现今地壳水平运动与应变

位于青藏块体和华北块体之间的鄂尔多斯块体及其周缘地区是中国大陆构造活动最活跃的地区之一,从1300年至今,在块体周边断陷盆地和西南缘断裂带上发生了五次8级以上的地震.为了了解该地区现今地壳运动、应变状态以及断裂滑动分布,我们收集了中国大陆构造环境监测网络2009—2013年、国家GPS控制网、跨断陷盆地的8个GPS剖面等共527个流动站和32个连续站GPS观测数据,获得了高空间分辨率的地壳水平运动速度场,进一步用均匀弹性模型计算了应变率分布.结果表明,块体内部GPS站点向NEE方向运动,速度变化较小,应变率大多在(-1.0~1.0)×10~(-8)/a之间;山西断陷带构造运动与变形最为强烈,盆地相对于鄂尔多斯块体为拉张变形,应变率为(1.0~3.0)×10~(-8)/a,相对于东部山地则为挤压变形,应变率为(-2.0~-3.0)×10~(-8)/a,盆地西侧断裂(如罗云山断裂、交城断裂)以拉张运动为主,拉张速率为2~3mm·a-1,盆地东侧断裂主要以右旋缩短运动为主,速率为1~3mm·a-1;河套断陷带西部的临河凹陷处于较强的张性应变状态,应变率为(2.0~3.0)×10~(-8)/a;块体西南边缘处于压缩应变状态,应变率为(-1.0~-2.0)×10~(-8)/a,六盘山断裂存在明显的地壳缩短运动,速率约为2.1mm·a-1,速率在断裂附近逐渐减小,反映了断裂处于闭锁状态;相对于鄂尔多斯块体内部渭河断裂带为左旋运动,速率为1.0mm·a-1,盆地处在弱拉张变形状态.     

HOLOCENE SLIP RATE AND EARTHQUAKE HAZARD OF THE NORTH-EDGE FAULT OF THE YANQI BASIN,SOUTHEASTERN TIAN SHAN,CHINA

The Tian Shan Mountains is an active orogen in the continent. Previous studies on its tectonic deformation focus on the expanding fronts to basins on either side, while little work has been done on its interiors. This work studied the north-edge fault of the Yanqi Basin on the southeastern flank of Tian Shan. Typical offset landforms, and lineaments of scarps on the eastern segment of this fault were used to constrain the vertical displacement and shortening rates. Geological and geomorphic mapping in conjunction with high-resolution GPS differential measurement reveals that the vertical offsets can be divided into three groups of 1.9m, 2.4m and 3.0m, and the coseismic vertical offset was estimated as 0.5~0.6m. In situ ¹⁰Be terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide dating of three big boulders capping the regional geomorphic surface that preserved 3.0m vertical offset suggests that the surfaces were exposed at~5ka. Meanwhile, the lacustrine sediments from Bosten Lake within the Yanqi Basin suggest climate change during cooling-warming transitions was also at~5ka. The climate, therefore, controlled creation and abandonment of geomorphic surfaces in southern piedmont of Tian Shan. Combining the exposure ages and vertical offsets, we inferred that the east section of the north-edge fault in the Yanqi Basin has a dip slip rate 0.6~0.7mm/a,~0.5mm/a of vertical slip and~0.4mm/a of shortening since 5ka. Based on calculation of earthquake moment, we estimated that this fault is capable of generating M7.5 earthquakes in the future. This study provides new data for further understanding tectonic deformation of Tian Shan and is useful in seismic hazard assessment of this area.     

A 48-kyr-long slip rate history for the Jordan Valley segment of the Dead Sea Fault

We investigate the late Quaternary active deformation along the Jordan Valley segment of the left-lateral Dead Sea Fault and provide new insights on the behaviour of major continental faults. The 110-km-long fault segment shows systematic offsets of drainage systems surveyed at three sites along its southern section. The isotopic dating of six paleoclimatic events yields a precise chronology for the onset of six generations of gully incisions at 47.5 ka BP, 37.5 ka BP, 13 ka BP, 9 ka BP, 7 ka BP, and 5 ka BP. Additionally, detailed mapping and reconstructions provide cumulative displacements for 20 dated incisions along the fault trace. The individual amounts of cumulative slip consistently fall into six distinct classes. This yields: i) an average constant slip rate of 4.7 to 5.1 mm/yr for the last 47.5 kyr and ii) a variable slip rate ranging from 3.5 mm/yr to 11 mm/yr over 2-kyr- to 24-kyr-long intervals. Taking into account that the last large earthquake occurred in AD 1033, we infer 3.5 to 5 m of present-day slip deficit which corresponds to a Mw  7.4 earthquake along the Jordan Valley fault segment. The timing of cumulative offsets reveals slip rate variations critical to our understanding of the slip deficit and seismic cycle along major continental faults.     

FAULTED LANDFORM AND SLIP RATE OF THE JINGHE SECTION OF THE BOLOKENU-AQIKEKUDUKE FAULT SINCE THE LATE PLEISTOCENE

The Bolokonu-Aqikekuduke fault zone(Bo-A Fault)is the plate convergence boundary between the middle and the northern Tianshan. Bo-A Fault is an inherited right-lateral strike-slip active fault and obliquely cuts the Tianshan Mountains to the northwest. Accurately constrained fault activity and slip rate is crucial for understanding the tectonic deformation mechanism, strain rate distribution and regional seismic hazard. Based on the interpretation of satellite remote sensing images and topographic surveys, this paper divides the alluvial fans in the southeast of Jinghe River into four phases, Fan1, Fan2, Fan3 and Fan4 by geomorphological elevation, water density, depth of cut, etc. This paper interprets gullies and terrace scarps by high-resolution LiDAR topographic data. Right-laterally offset gullies, fault scarps and terrace scarps are distributed in Fan1, Fan2b and Fan3. We have identified a total of 30 right-laterally offset gullies and terrace scarps. Minimum right-lateral displacement is about 6m and the maximum right-lateral displacements are(414±10)m, (91±5)m and(39±1)m on Fan2b, Fan3a and Fan3b. The landform scarp dividing Fan2b and Fan3a is offset right-laterally by (212±11)m. Combining the work done by the predecessors in the northern foothills of the Tianshan Mountains with Guliya ice core climate curve, this paper concludes that the undercut age of alluvial fan are 56~64ka, 35~41ka, 10~14ka in the Tianshan Mountains. The slip rate of Bo-A Fault since the formation of the Fan2b, Fan3a and Fan3b of the alluvial-proluvial fan is 3.3~3.7mm/a, 2.2~2.6mm/a and 2.7~3.9mm/a. The right-lateral strike-slip rate since the late Pleistocene is obtained to be 3.1±0.3mm/a based on high-resolution LiDAR topographic data and Monte Carlo analysis.     

Late Pleistocene and Holocene slip rate of the Northern Wadi Araba fault, Dead Sea Transform, Jordan

The Wadi Araba Valley is a morphotectonic depression along part of theDead Sea Transform (DST) plate boundary that separates the Arabian plateon the east from the Sinai subplate on the west. The Wadi Araba fault(WAF) is the main strike-slip faults one of between the Gulf of Aqaba and the E-Wtrending Khunayzira (Amatzayahu) fault that bounds the southern end ofthe Dead Sea. Just south of the Dead Sea, the WAF cuts across severalgenerations of alluvial fans that formed on tributaries to the Wadi Dahalafter the regression of Late Pleistocene Lake Lisan ca. 15 ka. Geomorphicand stratigraphic evidence of active faulting, including left-laterally offsetstream channels and alluvial-fan surfaces, yielded fault slip-rate data for thenorthern segment of WAF. Typical cumulative displacements of 54 m,39 m, and 22.5 m of stream channels and alluvial-fan surfaces acrossthe fault were measured from detailed geologic and topographic mapping.The 54 m offset of the oldest alluvial-fan surface (Q _f1 ) occurredafter the final lowering of Lake Lisan (16–15 ka) and before 11 ka yieldinga slip-rate range of 3.4 mm/yr to 4.9 mm/yr. Based on radiocarbonages of charcoal and landsnail shell samples from the buried Q _f2 alluvial-fan deposits exposed in trenches excavated across the fault, the39 m and 22.5 m offsets occurred after 9 ka and 5.8 ka, respectively. These data yield a slip-rate range between 3.9 mm/yr and 6.0 mm/yr.The small variability in these slip-rate estimates for different time periodssuggests that the northern Wadi Araba fault has maintained a relativelyconstant slip rate in the past 15 ka. We calculate an average slip rate of 4.7± 1.3 mm/yr since 15 ka based on the three separate displacementsand age estimates. Five separate offsets of 3 m were measured from gullybends and the offset of small fault-scarp alluvial fans. These displacementdata suggest a coseismic slip of 3 m in the last earthquake, or acumulative slip of 3 m in the past few earthquakes. A maximum slip of3 m correspond to a Mw 7 earthquake that ruptures about 49 km offault length. Using an average slip rate of 4.7 ± 1.3 mm/yr togetherwith a 3-m slip-per-event suggests a maximum earthquake recurrence intervalof this fault segment of 500 to 885 years.     

陕西中南部现今断层滑动速率和闭锁深度反演

位于华北板块和扬子板块之间的陕西中南部由渭河盆地、秦岭造山带和汉中盆地构成,其新构造运动主要形式为山脉隆升、盆地断陷,因此以重复水准测量为手段的地壳垂直运动研究尤为重要.基于研究区1970年以来的多期精密水准测量数据,用GPS垂直运动速率约束的动态平差方法获得了区域垂直运动速度场.以此为基础,用倾滑位错模型、网格搜索方法反演了研究区主要断层倾滑速率和闭锁深度,结果显示:秦岭北缘断裂倾滑速率为2.25～4.53 mm·a~(-1),闭锁深度为7.7～10.0 km;华山山前断裂倾滑速率为2.35～2.71 mm·a~(-1);闭锁深度为2.8～5.0 km,反映了该断裂在华县大地震之后,可能还没有完全闭锁,发生大震的应变能积累条件不足;渭河盆地北缘断裂的倾滑动速率为2.0～2.5 mm·a~(-1),闭锁深度仅为3.0 km左右,说明该断裂以蠕滑运动为主;略阳断裂倾滑速率为3.02 mm·a~(-1),闭锁深度6.7 km,是陕南较活动的断裂.