基于多主体系统的区位建模

探讨了基于多主体系统（multi-agent system，MAS）的城市商业区位建模的新方法。模型由相互作用的环境层和多主体层组成，旨在探索商业区位过程中消费者、商业设施、政府等多主体之间以及多主体与环境之间的微观相互作用而导致的宏观商业布局过程。该模型可以方便地探索销售商在不同选址策略下商业设施的区位分布，为商业选址提供有用的决策依据，并在一个虚拟的城市空间中模拟了销售商在不同选址策略下的选址决策。     

Creating Residential and Tenure Histories from Multi‐Year White Pages

In epidemiology research, a list of residences a person has occupied as well as a history of tenants for a residence are useful pieces of information for investigating geographically localized risk factors, environmental exposures, and for analyzing disease clusters. This article reports on a methodology for constructing residential and tenure histories using multi‐year white page phone listings. Residential histories associate a person with a list of addresses of residence and the length of occupancy at each address. Tenure histories document the list of persons occupying a residence along with length of occupancy. These histories were created using fuzzy matching on name address pairs between sequential years. Simulated annual phone listing data were used to develop and test the methodology which was then applied to an actual white page phone listing for a study town in Maine. The approach is applied locally and generates partial local residential and tenure histories that capture local migrations. We see these local history sets as building blocks for constructing more geographically extensive histories over time. Geocoded results were compared against numbers of housing units reported in the 2000 and 2010 US Census to assess the proportion of local residences captured by phone listings.     

Fine-scale simulation of spatial population distribution by coupling GA–ABM and big data: A case study of Dongguan,China

Capturing spatial population distribution can offer useful information for urban planning to promote reasonable population distribution and allocate urban resource. Agent-based model (ABM) based on the modeling idea of “bottom-up” can offer the ability to simulate the complex individual behaviors that generate spatial population distribution. Previous ABMs were unable to be extended for simulation of spatial population distribution at a fine scale due to the shortage of fine characterization of the urban environment and the calibration of agents' behavior. This study filled these gaps by proposing a genetic algorithm-ABM (GA–ABM) for fine-scale simulation of spatial population distribution in a manufacturing metropolis. In this model, the employment and residential choice behaviors of agents were defined by the labor economic theory and discrete selection model. Multisource geospatial big data such as enterprise points-of-interest big data and building footprints data were used to finely characterize the labor market and urban environment to reflect the impact of agents' employment choices on their residential decision. Furthermore, the grid-scale population investigation big data were combined with the GA to calibrate the agents' residential decision behaviors. The proposed model was used in Dongguan, the typical manufacturing metropolis in China. As a comparison, the expert-experience-based method-ABM (EEBM–ABM) was also conducted by using the same data set. Through the comparison of the results produced by these two models, it was demonstrated that the model coefficient calibrated by GA could effectively reflect the agents' residential decisions. The calibrated GA–ABM is more capable than EEBM–ABM in simulating spatial population distribution in a manufacturing metropolis. Hence, the proposed model can be used to simulate spatial population distribution in a manufacturing metropolis which helps the urban planner to conduct scientific urban planning.     

Geospatial Agents, Agents Everywhere . . .

The use of the related terms “agent‐based”, “multi‐agent”, “software agent” and “intelligent agent” have witnessed significant growth in the Geographic Information Science (GIScience) literature in the past decade. These terms usually refer to both artificial life agents that simulate human and animal behavior and software agents that support human‐computer interactions. In this article we first comprehensively review both types of agents. Then we argue that both these categories of agents borrow from Artificial Intelligence (AI) research, requiring them to share the characteristics of and be similar to AI agents. We also argue that geospatial agents form a distinct category of AI agents because they are explicit about geography and geographic data models. Our overall goal is to first capture the diversity of, and then define and categorize GIScience agent research into geospatial agents, thereby capturing the diversity of agent‐oriented architectures and applications that have been developed in the recent past to present a holistic review of geospatial agents.     

A Patch‐based Cellular Automaton for Simulating Land‐use Changes at Fine Spatial Resolution

While cellular automata have become popular tools for modeling land‐use changes, there is a lack of studies reporting their application at very fine spatial resolutions (e.g. 5 m resolution). Traditional cell‐based CA do not generate reliable results at such resolutions because single cells might only represent components of land‐use entities (i.e. houses or parks in urban residential areas), while recently proposed entity‐based CA models usually ignore the internal heterogeneity of the entities. This article describes a patch‐based CA model designed to deal with this problem by integrating cell and object concepts. A patch is defined as a collection of adjacent cells that might have different attributes, but that represent a single land‐use entity. In this model, a transition probability map was calculated at each cell location for each land‐use transition using a weight of evidence method; then, land‐use changes were simulated by employing a patch‐based procedure based on the probability maps. This CA model, along with a traditional cell‐based model were tested in the eastern part of the Elbow River watershed in southern Alberta, Canada, an area that is under considerable pressure for land development due to its proximity to the fast growing city of Calgary. The simulation results for the two models were compared to historical data using visual comparison, K_simulation indices, and landscape metrics. The results reveal that the patch‐based CA model generates more compact and realistic land‐use patterns than the traditional cell‐based CA. The K_simulation values indicate that the land‐use maps obtained with the patch‐based CA are in higher agreement with the historical data than those created by the cell‐based model, particularly regarding the location of change. The landscape metrics reveal that the patch‐based model is able to adequately capture the land‐use dynamics as observed in the historical data, while the cell‐based CA is not able to provide a similar interpretation. The patch‐based approach proposed in this study appears to be a simple and valuable solution to take into account the internal heterogeneity of land‐use classes at fine spatial resolutions and simulate their transitions over time.     

Agent-Based Simulation of Urban Residential Dynamics and Land Rent Change in a Gentrifying Area of Boston

Certain complex processes are most effectively modeled not on the macro-scale, but from the bottom-up, by simulating the decisions of individual entities, or agents. This study uses an agent-based modeling (ABM) approach to simulate residential dynamics in an area of Boston that has increasingly experienced gentrification in the past decades. The model is instantiated using basic empirical data and uses simple decision-making rules, differentiated into four classes, to simulate the process of residential dynamics. The model employs the consumption explanation of the cause of gentrification, which emphasizes the choices of individuals drawn to urban amenities, while testing the production explanation, which suggests that major investments from the public and private sphere attract and explain gentrification. Verification shows that the processes in the model work according to its construction, simulates complexity and emergent phenomena, and may be a valuable explanatory tool for understanding and learning about some processes underlying gentrification.     

Negotiating on location, timing, duration, and participant in agent-mediated joint activity-travel scheduling

Agent-based simulation has become an important modeling approach in activity-travel analysis. Social activities account for a large amount of travel and have an important effect on activity-travel scheduling. Participants in joint activities usually have various options regarding location, participants, and timing and take different approaches to make their decisions. In this context, joint activity participation requires negotiation among agents involved, so that conflicts among the agents can be addressed. Existing mechanisms do not fully provide a solution when utility functions of agents are nonlinear and non-monotonic. Considering activity-travel scheduling in time and space as an application, we propose a novel negotiation approach, which takes into account these properties, such as continuous and discrete issues, and nonlinear and non-monotonic utility functions, by defining a concession strategy and a search mechanism. The results of experiments show that agents having these properties can negotiate efficiently. Furthermore, the negotiation procedure affects individuals’ choices of location, timing, duration, and participants.     

Inferring the home locations of Twitter users based on the spatiotemporal clustering of Twitter data

Residential locations play an important role in understanding the form and function of urban systems. However, it is impossible to release this detailed information publicly, due to the issue of privacy. The rapid development of location‐based services and the prevalence of global position system (GPS)‐equipped devices provide an unprecedented opportunity to infer residential locations from user‐generated geographic information. This article compares different approaches for predicting Twitter users' home locations at a precise point level based on temporal and spatial features extracted from geo‐tagged tweets. Among the three deterministic approaches, the one that estimates the home location for each user by finding the weighted most frequently visited (WMFV) cluster of that user always provides the best performance when compared with the other two methods. The results of a fourth approach, based on the support vector machine (SVM), are severely affected by the threshold value for a cluster to be identified as the home.     

A Temporal Variant‐Invariant Validation Approach for Agent‐based Models of Landscape Dynamics

Agent‐based modeling provides a means for addressing the way human and natural systems interact to change landscapes over time. Until recently, evaluation of simulation models has focused on map comparison techniques that evaluate the degree to which predictions match real‐world observations. However, methods that change the focus of evaluation from patterns to processes have begun to surface; that is, rather than asking if a model simulates a correct pattern, models are evaluated on their ability to simulate a process of interest. We build on an existing agent‐based modeling validation method in order to present a temporal variant‐invariant analysis (TVIA). The enhanced method, which focuses on analyzing the uncertainty in simulation results, examines the degree to which outcomes from multiple model runs match some reference to how land use parcels make the transition from one land use class to another over time. We apply TVIA to results from an agent‐based model that simulates the relationships between landowner decisions and wildfire risk in the wildland‐urban interface of the southern Willamette Valley, Oregon, USA. The TVIA approach demonstrates a novel ability to examine uncertainty across time to provide an understanding of how the model emulates the system of interest.     

Using Pattern‐oriented Modeling (POM) to Cope with Uncertainty in Multi‐scale Agent‐based Models of Land Change

Local land‐use and ‐cover changes (LUCCs) are the result of both the decisions and actions of individual land‐users, and the larger global and regional economic, political, cultural, and environmental contexts in which land‐use systems are embedded. However, the dearth of detailed empirical data and knowledge of the influences of global/regional forces on local land‐use decisions is a substantial challenge to formulating multi‐scale agent‐based models (ABMs) of land change. Pattern‐oriented modeling (POM) is a means to cope with such process and parameter uncertainty, and to design process‐based land change models despite a lack of detailed process knowledge or empirical data. POM was applied to a simplified agent‐based model of LUCC to design and test model relationships linking global market influence to agents’ land‐use decisions within an example test site. Results demonstrated that evaluating alternative model parameterizations based on their ability to simultaneously reproduce target patterns led to more realistic land‐use outcomes. This framework is promising as an agent‐based virtual laboratory to test hypotheses of how and under what conditions driving forces of land change differ from a generalized model representation depending on the particular land‐use system and location.     

Toward Optimal Calibration of the SLEUTH Land Use Change Model

SLEUTH is a computational simulation model that uses adaptive cellular automata to simulate the way cities grow and change their surrounding land uses. It has long been known that models are of most value when calibrated, and that using back‐casting (testing against known prior data) is an effective calibration method. SLEUTH's calibration uses the brute force method: every possible combination and permutation of its control parameters is tried, and the outcomes tested for their success at replicating prior data. Of the SLEUTH calibration approaches tried so far, there have been several suggested rules to follow during the brute force procedure to deal with problems of tractability, most of which leave out many of the possible parameter combinations. In this research, we instead attempt to create the complete set of possible outcomes with the goal of examining them to select the optimum from among the millions of possibilities. The self‐organizing map (SOM) was used as a data reduction method to pursue the isolation of the best parameter sets, and to indicate which of the existing 13 calibration metrics used in SLEUTH are necessary to arrive at the optimum. As a result, a new metric is proposed that will be of value in future SLEUTH applications. The new measure combines seven of the current measures, eight if land use is modeled, and is recommended as a way to make SLEUTH applications more directly comparable, and to give superior modeling and forecasting results.     

A four‐dimensional agent‐based model: A case study of forest‐fire smoke propagation

Dynamic geospatial complex systems are inherently four‐dimensional (4D) processes and there is a need for spatio‐temporal models that are capable of realistic representation for improved understanding and analysis. Such systems include changes of geological structures, dune formation, landslides, pollutant propagation, forest fires, and urban densification. However, these phenomena are frequently analyzed and represented with modeling approaches that consider only two spatial dimensions and time. Consequently, the main objectives of this study are to design and develop a modeling framework for 4D agent‐based modeling, and to implement the approach to the 4D case study for forest‐fire smoke propagation. The study area is central and southern British Columbia and the western parts of Alberta, Canada for forest fires that occurred in the summer season of 2017. The simulation results produced realistic spatial patterns of the smoke propagation dynamics.     

Comparative Study of Approaches to Delineating Built‐Up Areas Using Road Network Data

Delineated built‐up areas may be used for applications such as navigation, database enrichment and the identification of urban sprawl. As more road network data have become available, many studies have considered using road network data to delineate built‐up areas. This study investigated the three existing approaches to delineating built‐up areas on a map: the grid‐based approach, kernel density analysis and an approach based on street blocks. These approaches are evaluated and compared from three angles. First, two measures were proposed to quantitatively evaluate the land area of the delineated built‐up areas; second, a questionnaire was designed to visually compare the representations of the delineated built‐up areas; and, third, the time complexity of using each approach was tested. The three approaches were applied to different sets of road network data for New Zealand; data from buildings and residential areas were used as benchmarks. The results showed that: (1) in a quantitative assessment, both the grid‐based approach and kernel density analysis can usually detect more built‐up areas than the approach based on street blocks; (2) on visual inspection, most of the students who completed the questionnaire performed the representations using the approach based on street blocks; and (3) in time complexity, the approach based on street blocks always takes the least time.     

UML‐Based Approach to Developing a CityGML Application Domain Extension

Recently a national 3D standard was established in the Netherlands as a CityGML Application Domain Extension (called IMGeo). In line with the Dutch practice of modeling geo‐information, the ADE is developed using a model driven approach. The classes are designed in UML and automatically mapped to GML schema. The current OGC CityGML specification does not provide rules or guidance on correctly modeling an ADE in UML. This article fills this gap by studying how CityGML can be extended for specific applications starting from the UML diagrams. Six alternatives for modeling ADEs in UML are introduced and compared. The optimal alternative is selected and applied to obtain the national 3D standard. The approach was extensively discussed with international experts, who were members of both SIG3D and other working groups. As a consequence the approach was adopted by the SIG3D, the Special Interest Group 3D which, among other things, work on the 3D standard CityGML in cooperation with OGC. Therefore the approach contains many issues that can be generalized and reused by future domain extensions of CityGML. To further support this, the article formulates a model‐driven framework to model CityGML ADEs. Open issues are described in the conclusions.     

An evaluation of sampling and full enumeration strategies for Fisher Jenks classification in big data settings

Large data contexts present a number of challenges to optimal choropleth map classifiers. Application of optimal classifiers to a sample of the attribute space is one proposed solution. The properties of alternative sampling‐based classification methods are examined through a series of Monte Carlo simulations. The impacts of spatial autocorrelation, number of desired classes, and form of sampling are shown to have significant impacts on the accuracy of map classifications. Tradeoffs between improved speed of the sampling approaches and loss of accuracy are also considered. The results suggest the possibility of guiding the choice of classification scheme as a function of the properties of large data sets.     

Conjoint modeling of residential group preferences: A comparison of the internal validity of hierarchical information integration approaches

 In this paper, two approaches for measuring residential group preferences, based on the method of Hierarchical Information Integration (HII), are compared. In particular, the hypothesis that group-based preference models estimated from integrated HII experiments better predict group preferences than part individual-based group models estimated from classical HII experiments is tested. To that effect, the models' ability to predict group preferences for new residential alternatives is compared in a study of residential preferences of co-ops. Results indicate that integrated HII group experiments indeed result in better predictions of residential preferences.     

Multi‐scale approach to mining significant spatial co‐location patterns

Spatial co‐location pattern mining aims to discover a collection of Boolean spatial features, which are frequently located in close geographic proximity to each other. Existing methods for identifying spatial co‐location patterns usually require users to specify two thresholds, i.e. the prevalence threshold for measuring the prevalence of candidate co‐location patterns and distance threshold to search the spatial co‐location patterns. However, these two thresholds are difficult to determine in practice, and improper thresholds may lead to the misidentification of useful patterns and the incorrect reporting of meaningless patterns. The multi‐scale approach proposed in this study overcomes this limitation. Initially, the prevalence of candidate co‐location patterns is measured statistically by using a significance test, and a non‐parametric model is developed to construct the null distribution of features with the consideration of spatial auto‐correlation. Next, the spatial co‐location patterns are explored at multi‐scales instead of single scale (or distance threshold) discovery. The validity of the co‐location patterns is evaluated based on the concept of lifetime. Experiments on both synthetic and ecological datasets show that spatial co‐location patterns are discovered correctly and completely by using the proposed method; on the other hand, the subjectivity in discovery of spatial co‐location patterns is reduced significantly.     

Strategically Locating Wildlife Crossing Structures for Florida Panthers Using Maximal Covering Approaches

Crossing structures are an effective method for mitigating habitat fragmentation and reducing wildlife‐vehicle collisions, although high construction costs limit the number that can be implemented in practice. Therefore, optimizing the placement of crossing structures in road networks is suggested as a strategic conservation planning method. This research explores two approaches for using the maximal covering location problem (MCLP) to determine optimal sites to install new wildlife crossing structures. The first approach is based on records of traffic mortality, while the second uses animal tracking data for the species of interest. The objective of the first is to cover the maximum number of collision sites, given a specified number of proposed structures to build, while the second covers as many animal tracking locations as possible under a similar scenario. These two approaches were used to locate potential wildlife crossing structures for endangered Florida panthers (Puma concolor coryi) in Collier, Lee, and Hendry Counties, Florida, a population whose survival is threatened by excessive traffic mortality. Historical traffic mortality records and an extensive radio‐tracking dataset were used in the analyses. Although the two approaches largely select different sites for crossing structures, both models highlight key locations in the landscape where these structures can remedy traffic mortality and habitat fragmentation. These applications demonstrate how the MCLP can serve as a useful conservation planning tool when traffic mortality or animal tracking data are available to researchers.     

GIS与Voronoi多边形在医疗服务设施地理可达性分析中的应用

地理可达性是研究评价各种服务设施布局及其服务域的重要指标之一,空间距离、交通便捷性、出行成本等是可达性测度的重要因子。由于医疗设施等公共设施通常以服务的公平性和覆盖性为目标,因此可定义居民点到最邻近医院的距离为地理可达性的测度。在此基础上,作者提出了基于GIS与Voronoi多边形的地理可达性计算方法。这一方法不仅将地理可达性分析中的空间点对之间的距离计算简化为空间查询,方便了GIS应用,而且计算的Voronoi多边形在本质上就是最邻近意义上医院的服务域,即服务域内各居民点到该医院的距离就是最邻近距离。此外结合人口分布等属性数据,还可深入分析各医院的服务承载力,本方法为医疗设施等公共服务设施的规划决策提供了重要的工具。