Facing climatic and anthropogenic changes in the Mediterranean basin: What will be the medium-term impact on water stress?

The Mediterranean basin has been identified as one of the world's most vulnerable regions to climatic and anthropogenic changes. A methodology accounting for the basin specific conditions is developed to assess the current and future water stress state of this region. The medium-term evolution of water stress is investigated using climatic scenarios and a water-use scenario based on efficiency improvements following the recommendations of the Mediterranean Strategy for Sustainable Development. Currently, the southern and eastern rims are experiencing high to severe water stress. By the 2050 horizon, a 30–50% decline in freshwater resources is simulated over most of the Mediterranean basin. While total water withdrawals would stabilize, or even decrease (10–40%), in several northern catchments, they would double in southern and eastern catchments. These changes should significantly increase water stress over the Mediterranean basin and exacerbate the disparities between rims.     

气候变化影响下水资源脆弱性评估方法及其应用

气候变化和人类活动影响下的水资源脆弱性评价,是将气候变化影响纳入水资源规划管理、提出缓解气候变化不利影响的适应性对策的重要科学依据。针对与气候变化影响的水资源系统的敏感性和抗压性相联系的脆弱性与适应性问题,提出变化环境下水资源脆弱性评估理论体系和一般性公式。进一步,以水资源供需安全为出发点,采用温度、降雨双参数弹性系数和有水资源基础,直观、简单的水资源关键性指标体系方法,提出气候变化和人类活动背景下水资源脆弱性评估模型。将模型应用于缺水最严重的海河流域,评价了现状和未来情境下流域水资源的脆弱性情况。结果表明:整体上海河流域水资源脆弱性偏高,且平原区较山区更脆弱;气候因素对流域水资源的脆弱性影响明显,未来如不采取措施,海河流域的水资源脆弱性将进一步加重。     

利用GRACE重力卫星数据反演黑河流域地下水变化

干旱区地表水资源有限, 地下水资源被超采利用, 黑河流域是西北干旱区典型内陆河流域, 有同样的地下水资源利用问题. 然而由于监测地下水变化的测井数目有限且分布不均, 难以从流域尺度上把握地下水资源的时空变化. 利用GRACE重力测量卫星数据反演黑河流域2003-2008年间的地下水时空变化, 为合理分配利用水资源提供科学依据, 为掌握无资料区域地下水水资源及其变化趋势提供了计算方法. 为验证GRACE反演结果的可靠性, 首先将计算出的黑河中上游地下水的变化, 与该区域实测地下水变化数据进行对比分析, 结果显示二者之间相关性较好, 在一定程度上表明GRACE数据具备反演整个黑河流域水储量变化及其各个组分的能力. 此后, 利用GRACE数据反演了全黑河流域的地下水变化, 对其时空变化进行了分析和讨论. 结果表明: 黑河流域2003-2004年间地下水减少的幅度越来越少, 2005年夏季期间地下水资源量增加量最多, 自此地下水增加幅度逐渐减少, 至2008年趋于平衡. 空间上流域局部变化波动较大, 2003-2004年间黑河上游地下水资源量处于减少状态, 2005年相对于6 a地下水平均含量有轻微增加趋势, 2006年处于6 a平均值状态, 2007-2008年有稍微上升趋势; 中游在2005年有略微的上升, 之后3 a下降; 下游地下水含量在6 a中整体呈上升趋势.     

基于水库群预报调度的黄河流域干旱应对系统

为有效应对日益严重的流域干旱问题,有必要开展面向干旱全过程的黄河流域干旱应对系统研究。基于干旱演变过程设计了干旱指数,通过天气预报模型、回归分析等进行干旱、需水与径流预报;设置多年调节水库旱限水位,实现水资源年际补偿;识别洪水和泥沙分期特征,采用分期汛限水位增加洪水资源利用量;建立了梯级水库群协同优化调度模型,调配抗旱水源。算例结果显示:黄河流域干旱应对系统能够平衡年际间的干旱损失以避免重度破坏,与实际情况相比,在重旱的2014年增加抗旱水源22.40亿m^3。建立的干旱应对系统已应用于黄河流域抗旱实践,提升了流域应对干旱的水资源调控能力。     

Evaluation of groundwater quality in the Cihanbeyli basin, Konya, Central Anatolia, Turkey

The Cihanbeyli basin is located in the northern part of Konya in the Central Anatolian region, Turkey and is characterized by semi-arid climatic conditions and scarcity in water resources. The suitability of groundwater quality for drinking and agricultural purposes in the Cihanbeyli basin was assessed by measuring physicochemical parameters, including major cation and anion compositions, pH, total dissolved solid, electrical conductivity, and total hardness. For this purpose, 54 samples were collected from different sources viz. deep wells, shallow wells, and springs. Results from hydrochemical analyses reveal that groundwater is mostly affected by salty and gypsiferous lithologies. Evaporite minerals such as gypsum, anhydrite, and chloride salts make high contributions from the recharge areas (west, northwest, and southwest parts) toward the discharge area (central and eastern parts). High values of total dissolved solids in groundwater are associated with high concentrations of all major ions. A comparison of groundwater quality in relation to drinking water standards showed that most of the water samples are not suitable for drinking. Based on sodium absorption ratio values and percent sodium, salinity appears to be responsible for the poor groundwater quality, rendering most of the samples unsuitable for irrigation usage. It is concluded that evaporation and mineral dissolution are the main processes that determine major ion compositions.     

中国西北内陆河水问题及其应对策略——以黑河流域为例

中国被联合国列为13个贫水国之一,占国土面积1/3的内陆河地区先天性的水资源不足,再叠加不合理的利用,使得水问题成为西北内陆河流域经济发展和生态保护的关键性问题.以黑河为例论述了流域尺度的水、土、生态、环境及管理问题;提出缓解流域水资源矛盾必须在流域尺度提高水效益的适应对策;讨论了绿洲灌区水资源利用率提高的4个环节,即灌溉水向土壤水转化、土壤水的生物利用、生物水的生产率以及市场需求的产业配置;展示了水源涵养、节水型绿洲建设、生态水利用率提高的部分实例;分析了水资源的社会化管理的阶段、问题与途径,强调流域虚拟水配置战略,指出提高流域水-生态-经济综合效益仍有较大潜力.     

Evaluation of water resources in a high-mountain basin in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Serra da Estrela</Emphasis>, Central Portugal,using a semi-distributed hydrological model

High-mountain basins provide a source of valuable water resources. This paper presents hydrological models for the evaluation of water resources in the high-mountain Zêzere river basin in Serra da Estrela, Central Portugal. Models are solved with VISUAL BALAN v2.0, a code which performs daily water balances in the root zone, the unsaturated zone and the aquifer and requires a small number of parameters. A lumped hydrological model fails to fit measured stream flows. Its limitations are overcome by considering the dependence of the temperature and precipitation data with elevation and the spatial variability in hydrogeomorphological variables with nine sub-basins of uniform parameters. Model parameters are calibrated by fitting stream flow measurements in the Zêzere river. Computed stream flows are highly sensitive to soil thickness, whereas computed groundwater recharge is most sensitive to the interflow and percolation recession coefficients. Interflow is the main component of total runoff, ranging from 41 to 55% of annual precipitation. High interflows are favored by the steep relief of the basin, by the presence of a high permeability soil overlying the fractured low permeability granitic bedrock and by the extensive subhorizontal fracturing at shallow depths. Mean annual groundwater recharge ranges from 11 to 15% of annual precipitation. It has a significant uncertainty due to uncertainties in soil parameters. This methodology proves to be useful to handle the research difficulties regarding a complex mountain basin in a context of data scarcity.     

石羊河流域水资源利用现状及其持续利用对策研究

通过对石羊河流域水资源利用现状及存在问题的分析,认为流域水资源已经严重超载,进行流域综合治理已刻不容缓.针对流域面临严峻的水资源及生态环境问题,提出分抢救和治本两个阶段来解决问题,近期以抢救为重点.按照南护水源、中建绿洲、北防风沙的治理思路,实行治理上游、改造中游、拯救下游的流域综合治理,以遏制生态环境恶化的趋势为目标,以提高用水效率为核心,以流域水资源统一管理为保证,实现流域水资源的可持续利用,支撑经济社会的可持续发展,达到人与自然和谐共处.     

Assessment of groundwater vulnerability in the Río Artiguas basin, Nicaragua

The Río Artiguas basin in central Nicaragua shows a distinctive case of environmental deterioration due to anthropogenic activities. Heavy metals used in gold mining and other wastes are continuously released into the rivers, representing a threat to the water quality. This article aims to evaluate the groundwater intrinsic vulnerability in the Río Artiguas basin and to provide information for sustainable use of water resources. The DRASTIC and GOD methods were used to analyse the relative pollution potential within the basin. DRASTIC was modified to include the degree of influence that geological structures have on the vulnerability. Moderate vulnerability areas cover most of the basin along stream valleys and lowlands, increasing downstream in the basin. The resulting vulnerability maps show that the limited groundwater resources are susceptible to surface water pollution as high vulnerability areas converge along the river valleys.     

Disputed water: Competing knowledge and power asymmetries in the Yali Alto basin,Chile

Hydrological information – which plays a crucial role in resolving conflicts over water allocation and distribution – is commonly seen as apolitical. However, this type of information is seldom objective and free of biases. Instead, it is used to position arguments and interests in accordance with the prevailing political agendas. Information is structured by complex and conflicting networks of public and private stakeholder interests, further reconstituted in different periods of time and place. Based on a study of the upper Yali basin in the municipality of San Pedro de Melipilla, Chile, we show how knowledge about water is produced, circulated and applied in the context of water scarcity and emerging conflicts over access to groundwater. Building on the notion of the hydrosocial cycle, the qualitative study shows how the production of hydrological reports and its application in political decision-making have reinforced asymmetrical relationships between the stakeholders locked in water conflicts. The lack of capacity of local farmers and community organizations to translate experiences into codified hydrological knowledge further exacerbates these asymmetries. Agro-industrial companies operating in the basin use hydrological assessments to locate and shift the water scarcity problems to the users, whereas locals blame them for accumulating disproportionately large concentrations of water extraction rights. Results contribute to the existing literature on environmental knowledge, arguing that discourses on water scarcity are not objective but shaped by socio-political contingencies. Overemphasising on data and techno-science based information to support certain decisions may be misleading without first unveiling the knowledge production processes operating across power-laden landscapes.     

Improving school children’s understanding of water scarcity with a co-produced book on groundwater in Central Chile

Water scarcity is a critical issue worldwide, and Chile is no exception. Since 2010, Central Chile has been enduring an ongoing water crisis due to the coupled effects of a severe drought and the overuse of water resources, especially groundwater. Rural communities have been strongly impacted, mainly because wells from which drinking water is supplied show a dramatic drop in water levels, and some have even dried up. The water scarcity scenario requires the integration of actors and disciplines to increase awareness of groundwater; however, how to make this valuable element visible in society is an issue that remains open to debate. This paper describes and reflects on the process of making educational material about groundwater and water scarcity for children to promote public awareness. Based on transdisciplinary and co-designing processes, this work describes the social perceptions of groundwater among children and community leaders, as well as how scientific information and local knowledge of water scarcity could be integrated into a book for the young population. This research finds that educational projects on groundwater resources increase people’s awareness of the role of this hidden resource in the water cycle. Such projects encourage the creation of grounded and contextualised materials that incorporate the knowledge and experience already present in the communities, increasing public awareness of the role of groundwater and associated water scarcity issues, thereby integrating academia and society. This approach could be a tool to lay the foundations for successfully addressing the water crisis in Chile over generations.

     

蔚汾河流域水资源多目标优化配置方法探讨

随着社会经济快速发展和水环境持续恶化,蔚汾河流域水资源供需矛盾日益加剧。本文对蔚汾河流域有限水资源的优化配置方法进行探讨,并对流域水资源进行可持续开发和利用,有利于促进人类可持续发展。在调查该流域不同水质水源基础上,本文研究了决策变量的约束条件,采用生活、农业、工业/建筑业、第三产业和生态环境多目标优化方法,结合决策者不同偏好,得出了几种不同的配置方案。通过调用Matlab优化工具箱中的fgoal-attain函数对该模型进行求解,得到几种不同的水资源优化配置方案,符合蔚汾河流域可持续发展的规律,能使该流域内环境、社会与经济协调发展。     

The use of Artificial Neural Networks in the modeling of socioeconomic category of Integrated Water Resources Management (Case study: Saf-Saf River Basin, North East of Algeria)

This research work has an objective to determine the effective variables in socioeconomic category of Integrated Water Resources Management for Saf-Saf river basin characterized by fast growing demand of urban and rural populations and the demand of economic sectors including industry and agriculture. In this paper, the artificial neural network models were used to model and predict the relationship between water resources mobilization and socioeconomic variables in the Saf-Saf river basin. The study area chosen is Saf-Saf river basin and real data were collected from 30 municipalities for reference year 2010. The results indicate that the feed-forward multilayer perceptron models with back-propagation are useful tools to define and prioritize the most effective variable on water resources mobilization and use. The model evaluation shows that the correlation coefficients are more than 94 % for training, verification, and testing data. The model aims to link the water resources mobilization and driving forces variables with the objective to strengthen the Integrated Water Resources Management approach.     

中国西北内陆干旱盆地地下水资源评估与开发

以多年的地下水勘查经验、成果为基础，总结西北内陆干旱盆地地下水资源评估与开发中的主要问题，分析了产生这些问题的客观和主观原因；认为地下水动态监测和水运行测量统计是实现逐步逼近地下水资源量的最有效方法；提出了开发地下水库，实施地表水、地下水联合调度，稳定供水，是西北内陆干旱盆地水资源开发的最佳模式。     

基于初始二维水权的流域水资源调控框架初析

为推动中国水权制度建设进程与落实最严格水资源管理制度提供技术支撑,基于二维水权概念与内涵等现有研究成果,结合对国内外初始水权分配相关研究进展与需求实践的系统梳理,从供水管理视角提出了包括"初始分配"、"优化调控"和"实时调控"3项内容在内的基于初始二维水权的流域水资源调控理论框架,详细阐述了各组成部分的实现途径、支撑技术、建模步骤及其之间的工作关系。     

气候变化对伊逊河流域水资源量的影响

海河流域作为中国水资源最为紧张的流域,其水资源对气候变化非常敏感.以海河流域中受人类活动影响较小的伊逊河流域为对象,基于海河流域未来气候变化研究成果构建了20种气候变化情景,应用具有物理机理的分布式流域水文模型模拟了不同气候变化情景下的流域水循环情景,对气候变化对伊逊河流域水资源量的影响进行了分析,结果表明气温升高1℃将使流域内3.8mm的径流转化为蒸散发,降水的增加将使流域的蒸发和径流都有所增加,其中新增降水50%转化为蒸发,30%转化为径流.同时径流和蒸散发对于高温和强降水更为敏感.未来气候变化的不确定性使未来水资源量的变化也有很大的不确定性,在以升温为主、降水变化存在很大不确定性的情况下,伊逊河流域天然径流量可能进一步衰减.     

华北平原水资源紧缺情势与因源

基于水资源可持续利用理念,从水资源承载能力演化周期性、经济社会需用水规模难变性和未来水资源供需关系入手,介绍近60年以来华北平原水资源情势,特别是该平原水资源量、实际用水量和地下水开采量变化特征,并结合未来10到30年区域经济社会发展需用水量趋势,识别和诊断华北平原水资源紧缺因源。结果表明：由于降水量减少导致华北平原缺水（自然资源性缺水）占该平原总缺水量的15.1%~16.4%;因管理缺陷导致水资源浪费的缺水（管理性缺水）占22.1%~24.2%;人口数量和经济社会发展规模过大导致用水量超过区域水资源承载力的缺水（政策性缺水）占59.3%~62.5%。自然资源性、管理性以及政策性缺水的解决对策不同：自然资源性缺水是不依人的意志为转移的,惟有从外域适量调水才能解决;管理性缺水可通过社会文明进步和科技进步不断修正;政策性缺水宜因势利导进行经济社会布局和产业结构调整,特别是限制高耗低效用水产业。即使南水北调工程70.3×108m3/a水进入华北平原,该平原地下水超采情势也难以得到根本性扭转。有新增水源调入或华北平原严控生活和工业用水量,同时大幅压减农业用水量,因势利导优化和逐步调整经济社会布局和产业结构,特别是灌溉农业进行规模化减蒸、降耗、节水的改造,将是缓解华北平原地下水超采和水资源紧缺的根本所在。     

泸西喀斯特断陷盆地地表水与地下水流域边界与水动力性质

在详细调查基础上,采用系统科学及水文地质分析方法,依据地形地貌、地层岩性、地质构造、示踪试验、地下水排泄基准面、喀斯特发育条件及发育规律等剖析论证流域边界,并通过钻探及示踪试验进行验证。研究结果:（1）对泸西喀斯特断陷盆地南东部的水系统边界向北移进行了修正,证实了三塘一带深部不发育的喀斯特是地下水分水岭边界,使得泸西喀斯特断陷盆地流域的径流系统和边界圈化更加准确;（2）泸西喀斯特断陷盆地流域地表水、地下水转化频繁,地表水径流特征主要以小江河在水库、河流、伏流间的径流转化过程为体现,地下水在侵溶山区接受大气降水补给后,上层径流以泉、暗河的形式在泸西盆地底面排泄后转化成地表水,最终汇集于盆地南部、通过工农隧洞及落水洞排向小江,而下层径流则以小江水面为基准,通过深层径流排泄。      

流域水资源实时调度研究——以黑河流域为例

系统地总结了流域水资源实时调度的研究现状和调度的基本理论依据。流域水资源实时调度以显式考虑人类活动影响的二元动态水资源演化模式为其理论基础,提出了“宏观总控、长短嵌套、实时决策、滚动修正”的流域水资源实时调度的模式。并以黑河流域为例,进行了应用研究,初步应用表明,该模式能满足流域水资源实时调度管理的需要,可为我国北方干旱半干旱地区流域水资源实时调度提供借鉴。     

河西走廊疏勒河流域水资源管理问题分析

从水资源管理体制、配置程序、市场化管理等方面探讨了河西走廊疏勒河流域水资源管理及存在的问题。目前流域已建成较健全的用水者协会体系,水价和水权在不断调整以适应水资源管理的需求。其管理存在以下问题：受地方行政、企业等多方权力博弈的影响,地表水和地下水处于双线管理状态,未能实现流域水资源的全面统一管理;用水者协会的职能未得到充分发挥,公众参与水资源管理不积极;流域内水价、水权制度不完善。建议如下：应在甘肃省水利厅和酒泉市政府之间形成协调机制,以协调各相关方的权益,完善流域管理局和地方政府统一协调的水资源管理体系,实现流域水资源的集成管理;加强流域机构立法,实现流域水资源的统一管理与调配;将协会的职责和义务融入到村委会的职务中,并完善水价制度,建立水权交易市场,以调动公众的自我管理和实现水资源的高效利用。