2005—2017年两次强ENSO事件对中国区域陆地水储量变化影响的卫星重力观测

近年来极端气候事件的频发对全球和区域性水循环产生了重大影响,特别是2005—2017年间两次强ENSO(El Nino-Southern Oscillation)事件使得全球陆地水储量出现了较大的年际波动.GRACE(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment)重力卫星随着数据质量的提高、后处理方法的完善和超过十年的连续观测,捕捉陆地水储量异常的能力明显提高,这为研究2005—2017年间两次强ENSO事件对中国区域陆地水储量变化的影响提供了观测基础.本文综合利用GRACE卫星重力数据、GLDAS水文模型和实测降水资料分析了中国区域陆地水储量年际变化和与ENSO的关系.研究发现:长江流域中、下游地区和东南诸河流域与ENSO存在较高的相关性,与ENSO的相关系数最大值分别为0.55、0.78、0.70,较ENSO分别滞后约7个月、5个月和5个月.其中长江流域下游地区与ENSO的相关性最强,2010/11 La Nina和2015/16 El Nino两次强ENSO事件使得陆地水储量分别发生了约-24.1亿吨和27.9亿吨的波动.在2010/11 La Nina期间,长江流域下游地区和东南诸河流域陆地水储量异常约在2011年4—5月达到谷值,而长江流域中游地区晚1~2月达到谷值.在2015/16 El Nino期间,长江流域中、下游地区和东南诸河流域陆地水储量从2015年9月到2016年7月持续出现正异常信号.其中,2015年秋冬季(2015年9月至2016年1月)陆地水储量异常明显是受此次El Nino同期影响的结果;2016年春季(4—5月)陆地水异常是受到此次厄尔尼诺峰值的滞后影响所致;2016年7月的陆地水储量异常则与西北太平洋存在的异常反气旋环流有关.     

Correlation between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and precipitation in South‐east Asia and the Pacific region

The relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events versus precipitation anomalies, and the response of seasonal precipitation to El Niño and La Niña events were investigated for 30 basins that represent a range of climatic types throughout South‐east Asia and the Pacific region. The teleconnection between ENSO and the hydroclimate is tested using both parametric and non‐parametric approaches, and the lag correlations between precipitation anomalies versus the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) several months earlier, as well as the coherence between SOI and precipitation anomalies are estimated. The analysis shows that dry conditions tend to be associated with El Niño in the southern zone, and part of the middle zone in the study area. The link between precipitation anomalies and ENSO is statistically significant in the southern zone and part of the middle zone of the study area, but significant correlation was not observed in the northern zone. Patterns of precipitation response may differ widely among basins, and even the response of a given river basin to individual ENSO events also may be changeable. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impacts of El Niño–southern oscillation on global runoff: Characteristic signatures and potential mechanisms

Runoff signatures, including low flow, high flow, mean flow and flow variability, have important implications on the environment and society, predominantly through drought, flooding and water resources. Yet, the response of runoff signatures has not been previously investigated at the global scale, and the influencing mechanisms are largely unclear. Hence, this study makes a global assessment of runoff signature responses to the El Niño and La Niña phases using daily streamflow observations from 8217 gauging stations during 1960–2015. Based on the Granger causality test, we found that ~15% of the hydrological stations of multiple runoff signatures show a significant causal relationship with El Niño–southern oscillation (ENSO). The quantiles of all runoff signatures were larger during the El Niño phase than during the La Niña phase, implying that the entire flow distribution tends to shift upward during El Niño and downward during La Niña. In addition, El Niño has different effects on low and high flows: it tends to increase the low and mean flow signatures but reduces the high flow and flow variability signatures. In contrast, La Niña generally reduces all runoff signatures. We highlight that the impacts of ENSO on streamflow signatures are manifested by its effects on precipitation (P), potential evaporation (PET) and leaf area index (LAI) through ENSO-induced atmospheric circulation changes. Overall, our study provides a comprehensive picture of runoff signature responses to ENSO, with valuable insights for water resources management and flood and drought disaster mitigation.     

Low‐frequency modulation and trend of the relationship between ENSO and precipitation along the northern to centre Peruvian Pacific coast

The relationship between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and precipitation along the Peruvian Pacific coast is investigated over 1964–2011 on the basis of a variety of indices accounting for the different types of El Niño events and atmospheric and oceanographic manifestations of the interannual variability in the tropical Pacific. We show the existence of fluctuations in the ENSO/precipitation relationship at decadal timescales that are associated with the ENSO property changes over the recent decades. Several indices are considered in order to discriminate the influence of the two types of El Niño, namely, the eastern Pacific El Niño and the central Pacific El Niño, as well as the influence of large‐scale atmospheric variability associated to the Madden and Julian Oscillation, and of regional oceanic conditions. Three main periods are identified that correspond to the interleave periods between the main climatic transitions over 1964–2011, i.e. the shifts of the 1970s and the 2000s, over which ENSO experiences significant changes in its characteristics. We show that the relationship between ENSO and precipitation along the western coast of Peru has experienced significant decadal change. Whereas El Niño events before 2000 lead to increased precipitation, in the 2000s, ENSO is associated to drier conditions. This is due to the change in the main ENSO pattern after 2000 that is associated to cooler oceanic conditions off Peru during warm events (i.e. central Pacific El Niño). Our analysis also indicates that the two extreme El Niño events of 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 have overshadowed actual trends in the relationship between interannual variability in the tropical Pacific and precipitation along the coast of Peru. Overall, our study stresses on the complexity of the hydrological cycle on the western side of the Andes with regard to its relationship with the interannual to decadal variability in the tropical Pacific. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Long‐term trend of precipitation in China and its association with the El Niño–southern oscillation

The plausible long‐term trend of precipitation in China and its association with El Niño–southern oscillation (ENSO) are investigated by using non‐parametric techniques. It is concluded that a greater number of decreasing trends are observed than are expected to occur by chance. Geographically, the decreasing trend was concentrated in most parts of China, including the Songliao River, Hai River, Huai River, Yellow River, Zhujiang River, and southern part of the Yangtze River basins, whereas an increasing trend appeared primarily in the western and middle parts of China, mainly including the Inland River basin, and the northern part of the Yangtze River basins. Monthly mean precipitation for the summer and early autumn months generally decreased, with the greatest decrease occurring in August. The precipitation in spring from January to April and later autumn, including September and October, tended to increase. The teleconnection between precipitation and ENSO has been investigated by using the non‐parametric Kendall's τ. The correlation coefficients between the southern oscillation index (SOI) and precipitation show the areas with positive or negative associations. Approximately 20% of the stations exhibit statistically significant correlations between SOI and precipitation, of which 70% show a negative correlation, with most of them appearing in southeast China and several appearing in northwest and northeast China. Similar regional patterns are also observed when the precipitation records are further subdivided into El Niño, La Niña, and neutral periods. Statistical tests for the three kinds of time series were carried out using the non‐parametric Wilcoxon rank‐sum test, and it is noted that the stations with significant differences in precipitation averages are mainly marked in the Yellow River basin and south China. The frequencies of below‐ and above‐average precipitation that occurred during the El Niño, La Niña, and neutral periods are estimated as well. The result shows that greater precipitation may be associated with El Niño episodes in south China, but drought may easily occur during El Niño episodes in the Yellow River basin. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

High-resolution flood hazard mapping based on nonstationary frequency analysis: case study of Ho Chi Minh City,Vietnam

Flood modelling inputs used to create flood hazard maps are normally based on the assumption of data stationarity for flood frequency analysis. However, changes in the behaviour of climate systems can lead to nonstationarity in flood series. Here, we develop flood hazard maps for Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, under nonstationary conditions using extreme value analysis, a coupled 1D–2D model and high-resolution topographical data derived from LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) data. Our findings indicate that ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) influence the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall, while global sea-level rise causes nonstationarity in local sea levels, having an impact on flood risk. The detailed flood hazard maps show that areas of high flood potential are located along river banks, with 0.60 km² of the study area being unsafe for people, vehicles and buildings (H5 zone) under a 100-year return period scenario.     

Multivariate properties of extreme precipitation events in the Pearl River basin,China: Magnitude,frequency, timing,and related causes

Daily precipitation/temperature data collected at 74 weather stations across the Pearl River basin of China (PRBC), for the years 1952–2013, were used to analyse extreme precipitation (EP) processes at annual and seasonal scales in terms of precipitation magnitude, occurrence rates, and timing. Peak‐over‐threshold sampling, modified Mann‐Kendall trend tests, and Poisson regression model were utilized in this study. Causes driving the observed statistical behaviours of EP were investigated, focusing particularly on the impacts of temperature change and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). EP events, which occur mainly during April and September, are most frequent in June. At an annual scale, they are subject to relatively even interannual distributions during the wet season. Significant trends were observed in the magnitude, frequency, and timing of EP events during the dry seasons, although no such trends were seen during the wet seasons. Seasonal shifts in EP can easily trigger sudden flood or drought events and warming temperatures, and ENSO events also have significant impacts on EP processes across the PRBC, as reflected by their increased magnitude and frequency in the western PRBC and decreased precipitation magnitudes in the eastern PRBC during ENSO periods. These results provide important evidence of regional hydrological responses to global climate changes in terms of EP regimes in tropical and subtropical zones.     

Sensitivity of Kelani streamflow in Sri Lanka to ENSO

As part of an effort to demonstrate the use of climate predictions for water resources management, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences on stream flow in the Kelani River in Sri Lanka were investigated using correlation analysis, composite analysis and contingency tables. El Niño (warm phase of ENSO) was associated with decreased annual stream flow and La Niña (cold phase of ENSO) with increased annual flows. The annual stream flow had a negative correlation with the simultaneous ENSO index of NINO3·4 that was significant at the 95% level. This negative correlation is enhanced to a 99% level if the aggregate January to September or the April to September stream flow alone were considered. Although, there is little correlation between ENSO indices and stream flow during the October to December period, there is a high correlation between rainfall and NINO3·4 (r = 0·51, significant at the 99% level). Therefore ENSO based rainfall predictions can be used along with a hydrological model to predict the October to December stream flow. This study demonstrates the viability of using ENSO based predictors for January to September or April to September stream flow predictions in the Kelani River. The October to December stream flow may be predicted by exploiting the strong relationship between ENSO and rainfall during that period. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Banda Sea surface-layer divergence

Sea-surface temperature (SST) within the Banda Sea varies from a low of 26.5 °C in August to a high of 29.5 °C in December and May. Ekman upwelling reaches a maximum in May and June of approximately 2.5 Sv (Sv=10⁶ m³ s^?1) with Ekman downwelling at a maximum in February of approximately 1.0 Sv. The Ekman pumping annual average is 0.75 Sv upwelling. During the upwelling period, from April through December the average Ekman upwelling velocity is 2.36 × 10^?6 m s^?1 (1.27 Sv). ENSO modulation is generally within 0.5 Sv of the mean Ekman curve, with weaker (stronger) July to October upwelling during El Niño (La Niña). Combined TOPEX/POSEIDON and ERS 1993–1999 altimeter data reveal a 33 cm maximum range of sea level. Steric effects are minor, with well over 80% of the sea level change due to mass divergence (some bias due to unresolved tidal aliasing may still be present). The annual and interannual sea level behavior follows the monsoonal and ENSO phenomena, respectively. Lower (higher) sea level occurs in the southeast (northwest) monsoon and during El Niño (La Niña) events. The surface-layer volume anomaly and the surface-layer divergence, assuming a two-layer ocean, are estimated. Maximum divergence is attained during the transitional monsoon months of October/November: 1.7 Sv gain (convergence), with matching loss (divergence) in the April/May. During the El Niño growth period of 1997 the surface layer is divergent, but in 1998 when the El Niño was on the wane, the average rate of change is convergent. Surface-layer divergence attains values as high as 4 Sv. Banda Sea surface-water divergence correlates reasonably well with the 3-month lagged export of surface (upper 100?m) water into the Indian Ocean as estimated by a shallow pressure gauge array. It is concluded that the Banda Sea surface-layer divergence influences the timing and transport profile of the Indonesian throughflow export into the Indian Ocean, as proposed by Wyrtki in 1958, and that satellite altimetry may serve as an effective means of monitoring this phenomena.     

El Niño and La Niña influence on mean river flows of southern South America in the 20th century

The influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon on monthly mean river flows of 12 rivers in the extreme south of South America in the 20th century is analysed. The original dataset of each river is divided into two subsets, i.e. warm ENSO events or El Niño, and cold ENSO events or La Niña. The elements of the subsets are composites of 24 consecutive months, from January of the year when the ENSO event begins to December of the following year. The ENSO signal is analysed by comparing the monthly mean value of each subset to the long-term monthly mean. The results reveal that, in general, monthly mean El Niño (La Niña) river flows are predominantly larger (smaller) than the long-term monthly mean in the rivers studied. The anomalies are more evident during the second half of the year in which the event starts and the first months of the following year.     

The effect of ENSO on rainfall characteristics in the tropical peatland areas of Central Kalimantan,Indonesia

Abstract

The effect of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on rainfall characteristics in the tropical peatland areas of Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, is demonstrated. This research used rainfall data collected between 1978 and 2008. The results suggest a relationship between ENSO events and the trend in rainfall observed in the study area. Further analyses show that El Niño events have a stronger effect on the rainfall compared to La Niña events. El Niño events were also correlated to the increase in the number of days with less than 1 mm of rainfall in the dry season. The analysis reveals that the impact of El Niño events on rainfall in dry seasons is intensifying annually. Furthermore, ENSO events are not the only factors affecting rainfall trends in the observed area. Other factors, such as deforestation, may also affect the trend.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Susilo, G.E., Yamamoto, K., Imai, T., Ishii, Y., Fukami, H., and Sekine, M., 2013. The effect of ENSO on rainfall characteristics in the tropical peatland areas of Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (3), 539–548.     

Influence of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation on South Korean streamflow variability

Deciphering the mechanisms through which the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects hydrometeorological parameters in the tropics and extratropics is of great interest. We investigate climatic teleconnections between warm or cold phases of ENSO and streamflow patterns over South Korea using an empirical methodology designed to detect regions showing a strong and consistent hydroclimatic signal associated with ENSO. We calculate not only spatial coherence values by monthly streamflow composite formed over 2‐year ENSO cycle and the first harmonic fit to detect candidate regions but also temporal consistency rates by aggregate composite and index time series to determine core regions. As a result, the core regions, namely, the Han river basin and the Nakdong river basin, are detected with a high level of response of ENSO phenomena to streamflow patterns. The ENSO composites for both core regions indicate drier (wetter) conditions in early autumn of the warm (cold) episode years and wetter (drier) conditions from winter to spring of the following year. For both regions, the spatial coherences are over 92% (82%) and the temporal consistencies are 71% (75%) during the El Niño (La Niña) events. In addition, for the core regions identified by composite‐harmonic analysis for both extreme episodes, the results of comparative analyses by using correlation, annual cycle, and Wilcoxon rank sum test indicate that 2 opposite phases‐streamflow relationships have a tendency of sign reversal of the streamflow anomaly. Also, the positive departures during the El Niño years show more coherent and strong responses than the negative anomalies in the La Niña events. In conclusion, South Korea experiences climatic teleconnection between ENSO forcing and midlatitude streamflow patterns.     

Influences of local hydroclimatology and teleconnections on Florida's precipitation and temperature variability

Understanding the influences of local hydroclimatology and two large-scale oceanic-atmospheric oscillations (i.e., Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) on seasonal precipitation (P) and temperature (T) relationships for a tropical region (i.e., Florida) is the focus of this study. The warm and cool phases of AMO and ENSO are initially identified using sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The associations of SSTs and regional minimum, maximum and average surface air temperatures (SATs) with precipitation are then evaluated. The seasonal variations in P-SATs and P-SSTs associations considering AMO and ENSO phases for sites in (1) two soil temperature regimes (i.e., thermic and hyperthermic); (2) urban and non-urban regions; and (3) regions with and without water bodies, are analysed using two monthly datasets. The analyses are carried out using trend tests, two association measures, nonparametric and parametric statistical hypothesis tests and kernel density estimates. Decreasing (increasing) trend in precipitation (SATs) is noted in the recent multi-decadal period (1985–2019) compared to the previous one (1950–1984) indicating a progression towards warmer and drier climatic conditions across Florida. Spatially and temporally non-uniform variations in the associations of precipitation with SATs and SSTs are noted. Strong positive (weak negative) P–T associations are noted during the wet (dry) season for both AMO phases and El Niño, while significant (positive) P–T associations are observed across southern Florida during La Niña in the dry season. The seasonal influences are predominant in governing the P–T relationship over the regions with and without water bodies; however, considerable variations between El Niño and La Niña are noted during the dry season. The climate variability influences on P–T correlations for hyperthermic and thermic soil zones are found to be insignificant (significant) during the wet (dry) season. Nonparametric clustering is performed to identify the spatial clusters exhibiting homogeneous P–T relationships considering seasonal and climate variability influences.     

Regional differences in the effects of El Niño and La Niña on low flows and floods

Abstract

The response of monthly 7-day low flow, monthly instantaneous peak flow, and monthly frequency of flood events to El Niño and La Niña episodes is investigated for 18 rivers that represent a diverse range of climatic types throughout New Zealand. A significant positive or negative deviation from the long-term average was observed in over half the possible combinations of river, streamflow index, and type of ENSO episode; significant deviations were most frequent in the case of low flow, especially during La Niña episodes. Patterns of streamflow response differ widely between rivers, and the response of a given river to individual ENSO episodes is very variable. The patterns of streamflow response to ENSO are consistent to some extent with the climatic effects of ENSO already identified by meteorologists. Two core regions can be defined in which streamflow tends to respond in the same way. These are in the northeast of the North Island, and in the axial ranges of the South Island, where there are significant effects of ENSO on the frequency and duration of rain-bearing northeasterly and westerly winds respectively. The patterns of response strongly reflect topography, and the exposure of catchments to predominant air masses.     

Global Terrestrial Water Storage Changes and Connections to ENSO Events

Improved data quality of extended record of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite gravity solutions enables better understanding of terrestrial water storage (TWS) variations. Connections of TWS and climate change are critical to investigate regional and global water cycles. In this study, we provide a comprehensive analysis of global connections between interannual TWS changes and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, using multiple sources of data, including GRACE measurements, land surface model (LSM) predictions and precipitation observations. We use cross-correlation and coherence spectrum analysis to examine global connections between interannual TWS changes and the Niño 3.4 index, and select four river basins (Amazon, Orinoco, Colorado, and Lena) for more detailed analysis. The results indicate that interannual TWS changes are strongly correlated with ENSO over much of the globe, with maximum cross-correlation coefficients up to ~0.70, well above the 95% significance level (~0.29) derived by the Monte Carlo experiments. The strongest correlations are found in tropical and subtropical regions, especially in the Amazon, Orinoco, and La Plata basins. While both GRACE and LSM TWS estimates show reasonably good correlations with ENSO and generally consistent spatial correlation patterns, notably higher correlations are found between GRACE TWS and ENSO. The existence of significant correlations in middle–high latitudes shows the large-scale impact of ENSO on the global water cycle.     

Analysing the influences of ENSO and PDO on water discharge from the Yangtze River into the sea

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are two important climate oscillations that affect hydrological processes at global and regional scales. However, few studies have attempted to identify their single and combined influences on water discharge variability at multiple timescales. In this study, we examine temporal variation in water discharge from the Yangtze River into the sea and explore the influence of the ENSO and the PDO on multiscale variations in water discharge over the last century. The results of the wavelet transform analysis of the water discharge series show significant periodic variations at the interannual timescale of 2 to 8 years and the decadal timescale of 15 to 17 years. Water discharge tended to be higher during the La Niña–PDO cold phase and lower during the El Niño–PDO warm phase. The results of the cross wavelet spectrum and wavelet coherence analyses confirm the relationship between the interannual (i.e., 2 to 8 years) and decadal (i.e., 15 to 17 years) periodicities in water discharge with the ENSO and the PDO, respectively. As an important large‐scale climate background, the PDO can modulate the influence of the ENSO on water discharge variability. In general, the warm PDO enhances the influence of El Niño events, and the cold PDO enhances the influence of La Niña events. Our study is helpful in understanding the influencing mechanism of climate change on hydrological processes and provides an important scientific guideline for water resource prediction and management.     

ENSO–climate fluctuation–crop yield early warning system—A case study in Jilin and Liaoning Province in Northeast China

Crop yield is very sensitive to climate variability. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important contributors to global climate fluctuation, and therefore has a major impact on agricultural production. In this study, we structure an ENSO–climate fluctuation–crop yield early warning system to model the maize yield in Jilin and Liaoning Provinces in Northeast China. The system, which consists of a weather generator and a Model to capture the Crop Weather relationship over a Large Area (MCWLA), is not only capable of simulating the maize yield both at the provincial (regional) scale and the grid scale, but can also provide the exceedance probability of yield. Simulation results show maize yields in El Niño years to be higher on average than those in neutral years, while yields in La Niña years are the lowest. Spatially, the central part of the study area always shows a higher yield than other parts of the study, while yields in the northeast and northwest parts are relatively lower, no matter how high or low the exceedance probability and whatever the ENSO phase. Our study strongly implies that such a warning system shows considerable potential for application in other areas of China.     

On some aspects of peaks-over-threshold modeling of floods under nonstationarity using climate covariates

This paper discusses some aspects of flood frequency analysis using the peaks-over-threshold model with Poisson arrivals and generalized Pareto (GP) distributed peak magnitudes under nonstationarity, using climate covariates. The discussion topics were motivated by a case study on the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on the flood regime in the Itajaí river basin, in Southern Brazil. The Niño3.4 (DJF) index is used as a covariate in nonstationary estimates of the Poisson and GP distributions scale parameters. Prior to the positing of parametric dependence functions, a preliminary data-driven analysis was carried out using nonparametric regression models to estimate the dependence of the parameters on the covariate. Model fits were evaluated using asymptotic likelihood ratio tests, AIC, and Q–Q plots. Results show statistically significant and complex dependence relationships with the covariate on both nonstationary parameters. The nonstationary flood hazard measure design life level (DLL) was used to compare the relative performances of stationary and nonstationary models in quantifying flood hazard over the period of records. Uncertainty analyses were carried out in every step of the application using the delta method.     

Solomon Sea circulation and water mass modifications: response at ENSO timescales

The South Pacific low latitude western boundary currents (LLWBCs) carry waters of subtropical origin through the Solomon Sea before joining the equatorial Pacific. Changes in their properties or transport are assumed to impact El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics. At ENSO timescales, the LLWBCs transport tends to counterbalance the interior geostrophic one. When transiting through the complex geography of the Solomon Sea, the main LLWBC, the New Guinea Coastal Undercurrent, cannot follow a unique simple route to the equator. Instead, its routes and water mass properties are influenced by the circulation occurring in the Solomon Sea. In this study, the response of the Solomon Sea circulation to ENSO is investigated based on a numerical simulation. The transport anomalies entering the Solomon Sea from the south are confined to the top 250 m of the water column, where they represent 7.5 Sv (based on ENSO composites) for a mean transport of 10 Sv. The induced circulation anomalies in the Solomon Sea are not symmetric between the two ENSO states because of (1) a bathymetric control at Vitiaz Strait, which plays a stronger role during El Niño, and (2) an additional inflow through Solomon Strait during La Niña events. In terms of temperature and salinity, modifications are particularly notable for the thermocline water during El Niño conditions, with cooler and fresher waters compared to the climatological mean. The surface water at Vitiaz Strait and the upper thermocline water at Solomon Strait, feeding respectively the equatorial Pacific warm pool and the Equatorial Undercurrent, particularly affect the heat and salt fluxes. These fluxes can change by up to a factor of 2 between extreme El Niño and La Niña conditions.