A study of Guptkashi,Uttarakhand earthquake of 6 February 2017 (<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">w</Emphasis></Subscript>5.3) in the Himalayan arc and implications for ground motion estimation

The 2017 Guptkashi earthquake occurred in a segment of the Himalayan arc with high potential for a strong earthquake in the near future. In this context, a careful analysis of the earthquake is important as it may shed light on source and ground motion characteristics during future earthquakes. Using the earthquake recording on a single broadband strong-motion seismograph installed at the epicenter, we estimate the earthquake’s location (30.546° N, 79.063° E), depth (H?=?19 km), the seismic moment (M₀?=?1.12×10¹⁷ Nm, M _w 5.3), the focal mechanism (φ?=?280°, δ?=?14°, λ?=?84°), the source radius (a?=?1.3 km), and the static stress drop (Δσ _s ~22 MPa). The event occurred just above the Main Himalayan Thrust. S-wave spectra of the earthquake at hard sites in the arc are well approximated (assuming ω^?2 source model) by attenuation parameters Q(f)?=?500f^0.9, κ?=?0.04 s, and f_max?=?infinite, and a stress drop of Δσ?=?70 MPa. Observed and computed peak ground motions, using stochastic method along with parameters inferred from spectral analysis, agree well with each other. These attenuation parameters are also reasonable for the observed spectra and/or peak ground motion parameters in the arc at distances ≤?200 km during five other earthquakes in the region (4.6?≤?M _w ?≤?6.9). The estimated stress drop of the six events ranges from 20 to 120 MPa. Our analysis suggests that attenuation parameters given above may be used for ground motion estimation at hard sites in the Himalayan arc via the stochastic method.     

A new <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">w</Emphasis></Subscript> estimation parameter for use in earthquake early warning systems

We propose a method that employs the squared displacement integral (ID2) to estimate earthquake magnitudes in real time for use in earthquake early warning (EEW) systems. Moreover, using τ _c and P _d for comparison, we establish formulas for estimating the moment magnitudes of these three parameters based on the selected aftershocks (4.0 ≤ M _s  ≤ 6.5) of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. In this comparison, the proposed ID2 method displays the highest accuracy. Furthermore, we investigate the applicability of the initial parameters to large earthquakes by estimating the magnitude of the Wenchuan M _s 8.0 mainshock using a 3-s time window. Although these three parameters all display problems with saturation, the proposed ID2 parameter is relatively accurate. The evolutionary estimation of ID2 as a function of the time window shows that the estimation equation established with ID2 ^Ref determined from the first 8-s of P wave data can be directly applicable to predicate the magnitudes of 8.0. Therefore, the proposed ID2 parameter provides a robust estimator of earthquake moment magnitudes and can be used for EEW purposes.     

Frictional and viscous effects on the nucleation phase of an earthquake

We study the frictional and viscous effects on earthquake nucleation, especially for the nucleation phase, based on a one-degree-of-freedom spring-slider model with friction and viscosity. The frictional and viscous effects are specified by the characteristic displacement, U _c, and viscosity coefficient, η, respectively. Simulation results show that friction and viscosity can both lengthen the natural period of the system and viscosity increases the duration time of motion of the slider. Higher viscosity causes a smaller amplitude of lower velocity motion than lower viscosity. A change of either U _c (under large η) or η (under large U _c) from a large value (U _ch for U _c and η _h for η) to a small one (U _cl for U _c and η _l for η) in two stages during sliding can result in a clear nucleation phase prior to the P-wave. The differences δU _c = U _ch ? U _cl and δη = η _h ? η _l are two important factors in producing a nucleation phase. The difference between the nucleation phase and the P-wave increases with either δU _c or δη. Like seismic observations, the peak amplitude of P-wave, which is associated with the earthquake magnitude, is independent upon the duration time of nucleation phase. A mechanism specified with a change of either η or U _c from a larger value to a smaller one due to temporal variations in pore fluid pressure and temperature in the fault zone based on radiation efficiency is proposed to explain the simulation results and observations.     

Gravity anomaly and crustal density structure in Jilantai rift zone and its adjacent region

This paper deals with the interpretation of Bouguer gravity anomalies measured along a 250 km long Suhaitu-Etuokeqi gravity profile located at the transitional zone of the Alxa and Ordos blocks where geophysical characteristics are very complex. The analysis is carried out in terms of the ratio of elevation and Bouguer gravity anomaly, the normalized full gradient of a section of the Bouguer gravity anomaly (G ^h ) and the crustal density structure reveal that (1) the ratio of highs and lows of elevation and Bouguer gravity anomaly is large between Zhengyiguan fault (F4) and Helandonglu fault (F6), which can be explained due to crustal inhomogeneities related to the uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet block in the northeast; (2) the main active faults correspond to the G ^h contour strip or cut the local region, and generally show strong deformation characteristics, for example the Bayanwulashan mountain front fault (F1) or the southeast boundary of Alxa block is in accord with the western change belt of G ^h , a belt about 10 km wide that extends to about 30 km; (3) Yinchuan-Pingluo fault (F8) is the seismogenic structure of the Pingluo M earthquake, and its focal depth is about 15 km; (4) the Moho depth trend and Bouguer gravity anomaly variation indicates that the regional gravity field is strongly correlated with the Moho discontinuity.     

Near-source attenuation of high-frequency body waves beneath the New Madrid Seismic Zone

Attenuation characteristics in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) are estimated from 157 local seismograph recordings out of 46 earthquakes of 2.6?≤?M?≤?4.1 with hypocentral distances up to 60 km and focal depths down to 25 km. Digital waveform seismograms were obtained from local earthquakes in the NMSZ recorded by the Center for Earthquake Research and Information (CERI) at the University of Memphis. Using the coda normalization method, we tried to determine Q values and geometrical spreading exponents at 13 center frequencies. The scatter of the data and trade-off between the geometrical spreading and the quality factor did not allow us to simultaneously derive both these parameters from inversion. Assuming 1/R ^1.0 as the geometrical spreading function in the NMSZ, the Q _P and Q _S estimates increase with increasing frequency from 354 and 426 at 4 Hz to 729 and 1091 at 24 Hz, respectively. Fitting a power law equation to the Q estimates, we found the attenuation models for the P waves and S waves in the frequency range of 4 to 24 Hz as Q _P?=?(115.80?±?1.36) f ^{(0.495?±?0.129)} and Q _S?=?(161.34?±?1.73) f ^{(0.613?±?0.067)}, respectively. We did not consider Q estimates from the coda normalization method for frequencies less than 4 Hz in the regression analysis since the decay of coda amplitude was not observed at most bandpass filtered seismograms for these frequencies. Q _S/Q _P?>?1, for 4?≤?f?≤?24 Hz as well as strong intrinsic attenuation, suggest that the crust beneath the NMSZ is partially fluid-saturated. Further, high scattering attenuation indicates the presence of a high level of small-scale heterogeneities inside the crust in this region.     

Location and source mechanism of the Karlsruhe earthquake of 24 September 2014

On 24 September 2014, a M_L 2.3 earthquake occurred southwest of the urban area of Karlsruhe, Germany, which was felt by a few people (maximum intensity I ₀?=?III). It was the first seismic event in this highly populated area since an I ₀?=?VII earthquake in 1948. Data of 35 permanent and temporary seismometers were analysed to localise the event and to determine the focal mechanism to compare it to previous seismicity. Restricting the data to P- and S-phases from 18 nearby stations and optimising the local earth model result in an epicentre in the southwest of the city at 48.986°N/8.302°E and in a hypocentral depth of 10 km. To calculate the focal mechanism, 22 P- and 5 S_H-polarities were determined that constrain a stable left lateral strike-slip focal mechanism with a minor thrusting component and nodal planes striking NE-SW and NW-SE. The epicentre lies in the vicinity of the I ₀?=?VII earthquake of 1948. Both events are part of the graben-parallel flower structure beneath the Upper Rhine Graben, parallel to the active Rastatt source zone, which runs 5 km further east and included the epicentre of the 1933 Rastatt I ₀?=?VII earthquake. The focal mechanisms of the 2014 and 1948 earthquakes show NE-SW striking nodal planes that dip to the southeast. However, for the 1948 event, a normal faulting mechanism was determined earlier. Taking the uncertainty of the epicentre and focal mechanism in 1948 and its fault dimensions into account, both events might have happened on the same fault plane.     

Body wave attenuation characteristics in the crust of Alborz region and North Central Iran

Attenuation of P and S waves has been investigated in Alborz and north central part of Iran using the data recorded by two permanent and one temporary networks during October 20, 2009, to December 22, 2010. The dataset consists of 14,000 waveforms from 380 local earthquakes (2 < M _L < 5.6). The extended coda normalization method (CNM) was used to estimate quality factor of P (Q _P) and S waves (Q _S) at seven frequency bands (0.375, 0.75, 1.5, 3, 6, 12, 24 Hz). The Q _P and Q _S values have been estimated at lapse times from 40 to 100 s. It has been observed that the estimated values of Q _P and Q _S are time independent; therefore, the mean values of Q _P and Q _S at different lapse times have been considered. The frequency dependence of quality factor was determined by using a power-law relationship. The frequency-dependent relationship for Q _P was estimated in the form of (62 ± 7)f ^{(1.03 ± 0.07)} and (48 ± 5)f ^{(0.95 ± 0.07)} in Alborz region and North Central Iran, respectively. These relations for Q _S for Alborz region and North Central Iran have estimated as (83 ± 8)f ^{(0.99 ± 0.07)} and (68 ± 5)f ^{(0.96 ± 0.05)}, respectively. The observed low Q values could be the results of thermoelastic effects and/or existing fracture. The estimated frequency-dependent relationships are comparable with tectonically active regions.     

Three-dimensional admittance analysis of lithospheric elastic thickness over the Louisville Ridge

Using bathymetry and altimetric gravity anomalies, a 1° 9 1° lithospheric effective elastic thickness(Te) model over the Louisville Ridge and its adjacent regions is calculated using the moving window admittance technique. For comparison, three bathymetry models are used: general bathymetric charts of the oceans, SIO V15.1,and BAT_VGG. The results show that BAT_VGG is more suitable for calculating T e than the other two models. T e along the Louisville Ridge was re-evaluated. The southeast of the ridge has a medium Te of 10–20 km, while Te increases dramatically seaward of the Tonga-Kermadec trench as a result of the collision of the Pacific and IndoAustralian plates.     

Temporal and spatial distributions of precursory seismicity rate changes in the Thailand-Laos-Myanmar border region: implication for upcoming hazardous earthquakes

To study the prospective areas of upcoming strong-to-major earthquakes, i.e., M _w  ≥ 6.0, a catalog of seismicity in the vicinity of the Thailand-Laos-Myanmar border region was generated and then investigated statistically. Based on the successful investigations of previous works, the seismicity rate change (Z value) technique was applied in this study. According to the completeness earthquake dataset, eight available case studies of strong-to-major earthquakes were investigated retrospectively. After iterative tests of the characteristic parameters concerning the number of earthquakes (N) and time window (T _w ), the values of 50 and 1.2 years, respectively, were found to reveal an anomalous high Z-value peak (seismic quiescence) prior to the occurrence of six out of the eight major earthquake events studied. In addition, the location of the Z-value anomalies conformed fairly well to the epicenters of those earthquakes. Based on the investigation of correlation coefficient and the stochastic test of the Z values, the parameters used here (N = 50 events and T _w  = 1.2 years) were suitable to determine the precursory Z value and not random phenomena. The Z values of this study and the frequency-magnitude distribution b values of a previous work both highlighted the same prospective areas that might generate an upcoming major earthquake: (i) some areas in the northern part of Laos and (ii) the eastern part of Myanmar.     

An experimental study on variation of <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis> value during deformation of rock samples with different structural models

A preliminary study of b value of rocks with two kinds of structural models has been made on the base of a new acoustic emission recording system. It shows that b value of the sample decreases obviously when the sample with compressive en echelon faults changes into a tensile one after interchange occurs between stress axis σ ₁ and σ ₂. A similar experiment is observed when the sample with tensile en echelon faults changes into that with a bend fault after two segments of the en echelon fault linking up. These facts indicate that the variation of b value may contain the information of the regional dominant structural model. Therefore, b-value analyses could be a new method for studying regional dominant structural models.     

Seismic source zoning and maximum credible earthquake prognosis of the Greater Kashmir Territory,NW Himalaya

We present the seismic source zoning of the tectonically active Greater Kashmir territory of the Northwestern Himalaya and seismicity analysis (Gutenberg-Richter parameters) and maximum credible earthquake (m _max) estimation of each zone. The earthquake catalogue used in the analysis is an extensive one compiled from various sources which spans from 1907 to 2012. Five seismogenic zones were delineated, viz. Hazara-Kashmir Syntaxis, Karakorum Seismic Zone, Kohistan Seismic Zone, Nanga Parbat Syntaxis, and SE-Kashmir Seismic Zone. Then, the seismicity analysis and maximum credible earthquake estimation were carried out for each zone. The low b value (<1.0) indicates a higher stress regime in all the zones except Nanga Parbat Syntaxis Seismic Zone and SE-Kashmir Seismic Zone. The m _max was estimated following three different methodologies, the fault parameter approach, convergence rates using geodetic measurements, and the probabilistic approach using the earthquake catalogue and is estimated to be M _w 7.7, M _w 8.5, and M _w 8.1, respectively. The maximum credible earthquake (m _max) estimated for each zone shows that Hazara Kashmir Syntaxis Seismic Zone has the highest m _max of M _w 8.1 (±0.36), which is espoused by the historical 1555 Kashmir earthquake of M _w 7.6 as well as the recent 8 October 2005 Kashmir earthquake of M _w 7.6. The variation in the estimated m _max by the above discussed methodologies is obvious, as the definition and interpretation of the m _max change with the method. Interestingly, historical archives (～900 years) do not speak of a great earthquake in this region, which is attributed to the complex and unique tectonic and geologic setup of the Kashmir Himalaya. The convergence is this part of the Himalaya is distributed not only along the main boundary faults but also along the various active out-of-sequence faults as compared to the Central Himalaya, where it is mainly adjusted along the main boundary fault.     

An Evaluation of Coulomb Stress Changes from Earthquake Productivity Variations in the Western Gulf of Corinth,Greece

Spatial and temporal evolution of the stress field in the seismically active and well-monitored area of the western Gulf of Corinth, Greece, is investigated. The highly accurate and vast regional catalogues were used for inverting seismicity rate changes into stress variation using a rate/state-dependent friction model. After explicitly determining the physical quantities incorporated in the model (characteristic relaxation time, fault constitutive parameters, and reference seismicity rates), we looked for stress changes across space and over time and their possible association with earthquake clustering and fault interactions. We focused our attention on the Efpalio doublet of January 2010 (M = 5.5 and M = 5.4), with a high aftershock productivity, and attempted to reproduce and interpret stress changes prior to and after the initiation of this seismicity burst. The spatial distribution of stress changes was evaluated after smoothing the seismological data by means of a probability density function (PDF). The inverted stress calculations were compared with the calculations derived from an independent approach (elastic dislocation model) and this comparison was quantified. The results of the two methods are in good agreement (up to 80 %) in the far field, with the inversion technique providing more robust results in the near field, where they are more sensitive to the uncertainties of coseismic slip distribution. It is worth mentioning that the stress inversion model proved to be a very sensitive stress meter, able to detect even small stress changes correlated with spatio–temporal earthquake clustering. Data analysis was attempted from 1975 onwards to simulate the stress changes associated with stronger earthquakes over a longer time span. This approach revealed that only M > 5.5 events induce considerable stress variations, although in some cases there was no evidence for such stress changes even after an M > 5.5 earthquake.     

Seismicity study in Pournari reservoir area (W. Greece) 1981–2010

The spatial-temporal evolution of seismicity is examined, during the initial impoundment of Pournari reservoir located on Arachthos River (Western Greece), as well as for the next 30 years. The results show that, despite the relatively moderate-to-high seismicity from west to east, there is no remarkable earthquake in the vicinity before the first reservoir impoundment. Immediately after the impoundment (January 1981), and during the first 4 months, a considerable number of low-magnitude seismic events were recorded in the broader area of the dam. Moreover, two independent major events occurred on March 10, 1981 (M _L ?=?5.6) and April 10, 1981 (M _L ?=?4.7) with focal depths 13 and 10 km, respectively. The detailed analysis of the two corresponding aftershock sequences shows that they present different behaviors (e.g., larger b-value and lower magnitude of the main aftershock) than that of other aftershock sequences in Greece. This seismicity is probably due to triggering, via the water loading mechanism and the undrained response due to a flysch appearance on the reservoir basement. The activation of the thrust fault may be attributed to the bulging of evaporites that characterize the disordered structure of W. Greece, via possible water intake. The detailed processing of the recorded seismicity during the period 1982–2010, in comparison with the variations of Pournari Dam water level, shows an increase of shallow seismicity (h?≤?5 km) in the vicinity of the reservoir up to a 10-km distance—in contrast to the initial period, characterized by a number of deeper events due to the background response change from undrained to drained status.     

Crustal stress field in Yunnan: implication for crust-mantle coupling

We applied the g CAP algorithm to determine239 focal mechanism solutions 3:0 M We 6:0T with records of dense Chin Array stations deployed in Yunnan,and then inverted 686 focal mechanisms(including 447 previous results) for the regional crustal stress field with a damped linear inversion. The results indicate dominantly strike-slip environment in Yunnan as both the maximum(r1) and minimum(r3) principal stress axes are sub-horizontal. We further calculated the horizontal stress orientations(i.e., maximum and minimum horizontal compressive stress axes: S H and S h, respectively) accordingly and found an abrupt change near *26°N. To the north, S H aligns NW-SE to nearly E-W while S h aligns nearly N-S. In contrast, to the south, both S H and S h rotate laterally and show dominantly fan-shaped patterns. The minimum horizontal stress(i.e., maximum strain axis) S h rotates from NW-SE to the west of Tengchong volcano gradually to nearly E-W in west Yunnan, and further toNE-SW in the South China block in the east. The crustal strain field is consistent with the upper mantle strain field indicated by shear-wave splitting observations in Yunnan but not in other regions. Therefore, the crust and upper mantle in Yunnan are coupled and suffering vertically coherent pure-shear deformation in the lithosphere.     

Numerical sensitivity test of three-electrode laterolog borehole tool

Finite element numerical simulation has been carried out to investigate quantitatively the response of the three-electrode laterolog borehole tool (LL3) on radial and vertical heterogeneity of the rock. In order to calculate the apparent resistivity from the electric potential and the current discharge of the measurement electrode the probe coefficient of the LL3 tool with finite electrode extent was determined. Two independent methods, a finite element modeling and a semi-analytical solution, resulted in the probe coefficient of approx. 0.15 m with a relative deviation of 2.4% due to the different geometry, resolution and electronics of the models. It was established that LL3 is only slightly sensitive to the presence of mud when the borehole diameter is d ≤ 30 cm and the ratio of the resistivity of rock and the borehole mud is 1 ≤ R _t/R _m ≤ 1000. Vertical heterogeneity test pointed out that the layer boundaries can be localized exactly even for thin bedded layer (with a thickness of 1 m) and the presence of low-resistive borehole mud. Correction factors were suggested to decrease the biasing effect of the low-resistive borehole mud and the shoulder beds on the apparent resistivity observed by LL3. Finally, it was verified that the probe has large penetration depth with excellent vertical resolution, what explains the enduring popularity of the LL3 tool in well logging.     

Attenuation coefficients of Rayleigh and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Lg</Emphasis> waves

Analysis of the frequency dependence of the attenuation coefficient leads to significant changes in interpretation of seismic attenuation data. Here, several published surface-wave attenuation studies are revisited from a uniform viewpoint of the temporal attenuation coefficient, denoted by χ. Theoretically, χ( f) is expected to be linear in frequency, with a generally non-zero intercept γ?=?χ(0) related to the variations of geometrical spreading, and slope dχ/df = π/Q _e caused by the effective attenuation of the medium. This phenomenological model allows a simple classification of χ( f) dependences as combinations of linear segments within several frequency bands. Such linear patterns are indeed observed for Rayleigh waves at 500–100-s and 100–10-s periods, and also for Lg from ~2 s to ~1.5 Hz. The Lg χ( f) branch overlaps with similar linear branches of body, Pn, and coda waves, which were described earlier and extend to ~100 Hz. For surface waves shorter than ~100 s, γ values recorded in areas of stable and active tectonics are separated by the levels of \(\gamma _{D} \approx 0.2 \times 10^{-3}\) s^???1 (for Rayleigh waves) and 8 ×10^???3 s^???1 (for Lg). The recently recognized discrepancy between the values of Q measured from long-period surface waves and normal-mode oscillations could also be explained by a slight positive bias in the geometrical spreading of surface waves. Similarly to the apparent χ, the corresponding linear variation with frequency is inferred for the intrinsic attenuation coefficient, χ _i , which combines the effects of geometrical spreading and dissipation within the medium. Frequency-dependent rheological or scattering Q is not required for explaining any of the attenuation observations considered in this study. The often-interpreted increase of Q with frequency may be apparent and caused by using the Q-based model of attenuation and following preferred Q( f) dependences while ignoring the true χ( f) trends within the individual frequency bands.     

The aftershock sequence of the 5 August 2014 Orkney earthquake (M<Subscript>L</Subscript> 5.5), South Africa

More than 1000 aftershocks were recorded within a month after the occurrence of the M_L 5.5, 5 August 2014 Orkney earthquake. The events were relocated using the double difference method as part of an effort to identify the fault which might be the source of the events. A north–south trend of seismicity was revealed by the relocated events, with a diffuse cluster to the north of the main event. A depth profile shows these two clusters: one at a depth of about 2 km to the north of the main event and the other at depth between 3 and 6 km south of the main event. Focal mechanism solutions of 18 aftershocks were determined using first motion polarities from seismic stations of the Council for Geoscience cluster networks. Stress inversion analysis results from the focal mechanism solutions show a dominant extensional stress field in the region; the main event had a strike-slip fault plane solution. This is consistent with the regional stress field which is predominantly related to the East African rift system. It is possible that the occurrence of the main event triggered seismicity on shallower faults within the mining horizons oriented in a different direction to the fault on which the main event occurred. The area has a complex heterogeneous faulting structure as indicated by the observed low p values and complex focal mechanism solutions.     

Determination of source parameters of strong earthquakes of Kamchatka,the Kurile Islands,and Japan from aftershock sequences

Aftershock sequences of some strong earthquakes of Kamchatka, the Kurile Islands, and Japan are examined. Such source parameters as the length L, along-dip width W, motion on fault D, and stress drop Δσ are determined from the aftershock sequences considered. The values of these parameters were obtained by the formal estimation of linear source parameters (lower bound estimates) and visually (upper bound estimates). The correlation dependences of the obtained parameters on the surface wave (M _S ) and seismic moment (M _W ) magnitudes are calculated.     

Region-specific <Emphasis Type="Italic">S</Emphasis>-wave attenuation for earthquakes in northwestern Iran

In this study, continuous wavelet transform is applied to estimate the frequency-dependent quality factor of shear waves, Q _S , in northwestern Iran. The dataset used in this study includes velocigrams of more than 50 events with magnitudes between 4.0 and 6.5, which have occurred in the study area. The CWT-based method shows a high-resolution technique for the estimation of S-wave frequency-dependent attenuation. The quality factor values are determined in the form of a power law as Q _S (f)?=?(147?±?16)f ^0.71?±?0.02 and (126?±?12)f ^0.73?±?0.02 for vertical and horizontal components, respectively, where f is between 0.9 and 12 Hz. Furthermore, in order to verify the reliability of the suggested Q _S estimator method, an additional test is performed by using accelerograms of Ahar-Varzaghan dual earthquakes on August 11, 2012, of moment magnitudes 6.4 and 6.3 and their aftershocks. Results indicate that the estimated Q _S values from CWT-based method are not very sensitive to the numbers and types of waveforms used (velocity or acceleration).     

Probabilistic aftershock hazard analysis,two case studies in West and Northwest Iran

Aftershock hazard maps contain the essential information for search and rescue process, and re-occupation after a main-shock. Accordingly, the main purposes of this article are to study the aftershock decay parameters and to estimate the expected high-frequency ground motions (i.e., Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA)) for recent large earthquakes in the Iranian plateau. For this aim, the Ahar-Varzaghan doublet earthquake (August 11, 2012; M _N =6.5, M _N =6.3), and the Ilam (Murmuri) earthquake (August 18, 2014 ; M _N =6.2) have been selected. The earthquake catalogue has been collected based on the Gardner and Knopoff (Bull Seismol Soc Am 64(5), 1363-1367, 1974) temporal and spatial windowing technique. The magnitude of completeness and the seismicity parameters (a,??b) and the modified Omori law parameters (P,??K,??C) have been determined for these two earthquakes in the 14, 30, and 60 days after the mainshocks. Also, the temporal changes of parameters (a,??b,??P,??K,??C) have been studied. The aftershock hazard maps for the probability of exceedance (33%) have been computed in the time periods of 14, 30, and 60 days after the Ahar-Varzaghan and Ilam (Murmuri) earthquakes. For calculating the expected PGA of aftershocks, the regional and global ground motion prediction equations have been utilized. Amplification factor based on the site classes has also been implied in the calculation of PGA. These aftershock hazard maps show an agreement between the PGAs of large aftershocks and the forecasted PGAs. Also, the significant role of b parameter in the Ilam (Murmuri) probabilistic aftershock hazard maps has been investigated.