影响气象科技服务效益的若干要素

近年来 ,全省乃至全国各基层气象台站的气象科技服务工作呈现出了新的特点 :一是服务内容不断丰富 ,已由原来单一的与用户签订气象预报有偿服务合同、为地方政府提供决策服务信息 ,发展成为现在的“1 2 1”电话气象信息自动答询、多媒体电视天气预报画面制作、建 (构 )筑物和计算机信息系统防雷等高科技含量的气象服务 ;二是服务手段不断更新 ,已由原来的气象信息人工抄送、电话传递和依靠亲朋好友签订有偿服务合同 ,发展成为现在依靠法律手段和气象信息网开展服务 ;三是服务领域进一步拓宽 ,已由最初的砖瓦制造业、烟草业等行业辐射到工业…     

签订和履行气象技术服务合同应当遵循的原则

气象事业是经济建设、国防建设、社会发展和人民生活的基础性公益事业。根据《气象法》的规定,气象台站在确保公益性气象服务的前提下,可以依法开展气象有偿服务。近年来,随着经济的快速发展,气象服务的领域在不断地拓宽,气象工作已经从经济领域的后台走到前台,气象信息服务已经渗透到各行各业和人们的日常生活,气象服务工作在国民经济各个领域的地位和作用也不断地增强。气象信息的有偿服务,是通过签订气象技术服务合同来完成的。气象技术服务合同属于合同的一种,应当受《中华人民共和国合同法》的调整。依照合同法的规定,当事人在签订…     

农产品期货交易与气象信息

农产品期货交易与气象信息孙志国作为抵消风险调节供需的期货交易是风行国际的金融活动。在我国已得到了广泛的认识．开发和利用气象信息为期货交易服务是气象科技转化为第一生产力的要求，并为有偿气象服务拓宽了新领域。由于期货交易具有抵消风险功能，本身又具有获胜率...     

我国的气象服务商品化趋势

本文从理论上分析气象服务产品作为公共物品的供需矛盾和市场低效率等缺陷，以及气象服务商品化竞争模式的供需均衡和市场高效率。对比公共物品和竞争商品对市场资源配置效益、社会效益的不同影响，初步探讨气象服务市场如何才能达到帕累托最优状态等问题。针对我国气象服务商品化进程中存在的问题，论述我国气象服务商品化道路的必然趋势。根据我国的基本国情和市场状况，借鉴气象服务商品化较早的经济发达国家的成功经验，探讨适合我国的气象服务商品化发展模式。     

“一带一路”沿线国家气象服务的供需协调度分析

基于2011—2020年“一带一路”沿线国家气候风险、灾损情况、经济水平,以及市场环境等方面数据资料,从气象服务供需视角,构建气象服务供需协调度指标体系,采用熵值法和协调度耦合模型量化分析沿线国家气象服务的需求、供给及供需均衡水平。结果表明,灾情指标和人口密度指标能较好地表征需求和供给水平;南亚的印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉和东南亚的菲律宾等国家的气象服务需求相对较高;供给指数相较需求指数更加稳定;均衡指数在研究期内的波动范围变化不大,但是空间分布格局变化较大;沿线印度、新加坡和孟加拉三国的均衡性上升趋势最为显著。     

气象技术服务合同风险及防范

气象技术服务合同属于技术合同，是指签订合同的双方当事人之间确立、变更、终止气象技术服务权利义务关系所达成的一种协议。我国自实行气象有偿服务以来，开始使用气象技术服务合同。它对稳定正常的气象有偿服务秩序，保护气象有偿服务活动当事人的合法权益，强化对气象有偿服务的监督和管理，都起着重要的不可替代的作用。基于我国实行气象有偿服务的时间不长，在实际中合同的操作还不完善，难免给气象有偿服务带来一定的风险和损失。因此，研究气象服务合同的风险及防范对搞好气象有偿服务有一定现实意义。     

广东省气象信息服务单位的摸排方法及统计分析

针对气象信息服务的特点和广东省省情,建立了包括部门信息共享、服务渠道反查、网络搜索、备案公示信息查询等气象信息服务单位摸排方法,对广东省气象信息服务单位进行了摸排和分析,结果表明:广东共有278家气象信息服务单位,其中,92.8%的单位属于气象信息传播类,专业气象服务类、气象软件开发类只占7.2%;气象部门是气象信息服务的中坚力量,非气象部门的气象信息服务单位只占小部分;气象信息服务单位多属事业性质单位,属于企业性质的很少,且绝大部分在珠三角地区。     

基层气象服务产品配置策略探究

以搜集整理的气象服务产品、黑龙江省气象服务周年方案和七台河市气象局的现有气象服务产品为研究对象，分析了基层气象服务的产品供给现状和产品服务过程中的问题，就基层气象部门解决气象服务产品供需错位，做好各类气象服务给出建议，并积极探索了对专业气象服务产品工作的发展策略。     

气象科技论文中表格的规范化

气象信息资源是国家的基础性自然资源、战略性经济资源和公共性社会资源。大力提高气象信息产品的质量,提高气象信息服务的能力水平是气象事业的崇高责任。本文通过分析气象信息对经济社会发展的重要意义、影响气象信息传播利用的主要因素等,提出提高气象信息服务水平的对策建议,即不断拓宽气象信息服务领域;开发气象信息资源,增加气象信息产品;提高气象信息服务质量,改善气象信息服务手段。     

专业气象服务的公关策略与技巧

从公共关系的角度出发 ,阐述了开拓和巩固专业气象服务用户合同 ,最大限度地增加气象科技服务创收 ,开展专业气象服务的策略和技巧。     

加强业务管理提高测报质量

我局从1999～2003年,测报工作连续4年未出现错情,在此期间共有1个250个班,9个百班无错通过上级业务部门验收.在仪器保管、使用、维护上符合要求,对外报送的各种表、簿都能做好出门合格.     

Comparing the theoretical versions of the Beaufort scale, the T-Scale and the Fujita scale

2005 is the bicentenary of the Beaufort Scale and its wind-speed codes: the marine version in 1805 and the land version later. In the 1920s when anemometers had come into general use, the Beaufort Scale was quantified by a formula based on experiment. In the early 1970s two tornado wind-speed scales were proposed: (1) an International T-Scale based on the Beaufort Scale; and (2) Fujita's damage scale developed for North America. The International Beaufort Scale and the T-Scale share a common root in having an integral theoretical relationship with an established scientific basis, whereas Fujita's Scale introduces criteria that make its intensities non-integral with Beaufort. Forces on the T-Scale, where T stands for Tornado force, span the range 0 to 10 which is highly useful world wide. The shorter range of Fujita's Scale (0 to 5) is acceptable for American use but less convenient elsewhere. To illustrate the simplicity of the decimal T-Scale, mean hurricane wind speed of Beaufort 12 is T2 on the T-Scale but F1.121 on the F-Scale; while a tornado wind speed of T9 (= B26) becomes F4.761. However, the three wind scales can be uni-fied by either making F-Scale numbers exactly half the magnitude of T-Scale numbers [i.e. F′half = T / 2 = (B / 4) − 4] or by doubling the numbers of this revised version to give integral equivalence with the T-Scale. The result is a decimal formula F′double = T = (B / 2) − 4 named the TF-Scale where TF stands for Tornado Force. This harmonious 10-digit scale has all the criteria needed for world-wide practical effectiveness.     

准两年振荡对大气中微量气体分布的影响

NCAR的包含化学、辐射、动力相互作用的两维模式（SOCRATES）移植回国后进行了初步的模拟试验,用以研究某些对环境问题重要的微量气体的化学、辐射、动力传输过程。在不考虑极地平流层云和气溶胶表面非均相化学等情况下,模式积分多年,计算结果稳定,模拟的风场、温度场显示出正常的季节变化,模拟的微量气体分布与卫星实测资料对照,结果也比较一致。为了探讨热带平流层风场的准两年周期振荡（QBO）对平流层微量气体分布的影响,我们做了QBO强迫的数值试验,即在模式中加入QBO强迫,并与不考虑QBO强迫的模拟结果对比。结果表明,QBO与其相关的次级环流所引起动力输送的变化,使平流层微量气体分布发生变化。     

Quantifying the uncertainty of the annular mode time scale and the role of the stratosphere

The impact of high resolution modern vegetation cover on the West African climate is examined using the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model implementing the NCAR Community Land Model. Two high resolution 25 km long-term simulations driven by the output from a coarser 50-km resolution simulation are performed for the period 1998–2010. One high resolution simulation uses an earlier and coarser-resolution version of plant functional type distribution and leaf area index, while the other uses a more recent, higher-quality, and finer-resolution version of the data. The results indicate that the new land cover distribution substantially alters the distribution of temperature with warming in Central Nigeria, northern Gulf of Guinea and part of the Sahel due to the replacement of C4 grass with corn; and cooling along the coastlines of the Gulf of Guinea and in Central Africa due to the replacement of C4 grass with tropical broadleaf evergreen trees. Changes in latent heat flux appear to be largely responsible for these temperature changes with a net decrease (increase) in regions of warming (cooling). The improved land cover distribution also results in a wetter monsoon season. The presence of corn tends to favor larger precipitation amounts via more intense events, while the presence of tropical broadleaf evergreen trees tends to favor the occurrence of both more intense and more frequent events. The wetter conditions appear to be sustained via (1) an enhanced soil moisture feedback; and (2) elevated moisture transport due to increased low-level convergence in regions south of 10N where the most substantial land cover differences are present. Overall the changes induced by the improved vegetation cover improve, to some extent, the performance of the high resolution regional climate model in simulating the main West African summer monsoon features.     

由中国历史气候记录对季风导致唐朝灭亡说的质疑

2007年1月4日杂志发表了Yancheva等10人的题为"Influence of the intertropical convergence zone on the East-Asian monsoon"(热带辐合带对东亚季风的影响)的论文[1],这是德国波兹坦地学研究中心气候动力与沉积学科的主管豪格(G.H.Haug)率领的科研小组的一项成果,认为是季风的变化引起的长期干旱导致了唐朝的灭亡.     

流场配置及地形对西南低涡形成的动力作用

本文采用定常二层模式讨论较小地形及高、低层流场配置对西南低涡形成的动力作用。指出了西南低涡的形成是与盆地、河谷以及其上气流分层有关的一种定常态.在上、下为西风分层时期,低层的浅薄暖湿西风有利于西南低涡的形成.在上、下为东、西风分层时期,上层浅薄东风亦有利于西南低涡的形成.小型的凸起山脉对西南低涡的形成没有作用.     

On the forecast of the onset and end of the convective season in the Amazon

Summary ?Some features of the climate system that can be considered predictors of the onset and end of the convective season over the Amazon were identified using one-month lag correlations and field composites. The fields analyzed were sea surface temperature (SST), outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR), vertical velocity and upper tropospheric winds. Warm (cold) anomalies in the SST in the tropical North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea tend to be associated with delayed (early) onsets. Likewise, there is a tendency towards a delayed (early) end of the convective season with cold (warm) anomalies in these ocean regions. In addition, the SST in the cold tongue region of the equatorial Pacific is negatively, though weakly correlated with the onset date. The signal of this SST is more evident in the case of the end date, which is earlier with respect to its mean date in most of El Ni?o cases. The convective activity intensity itself conditions the onset and the end of the convective season, as it is evidenced by the behavior of the OLR and the vertical velocity fields. The more (less) intense the convective activity over South America during the preceding month, the earlier the onset and the later the end of the convective season on the Amazon region. The prediction of the onset and end dates of the convective season in the Amazon region was explored using a simple multiple regression technique based on the variables that have shown precursor signals with respect to these dates. The correlation coefficient between the predicted and the observed onset date is 0.81, and in the case of the end date, it is 0.76. The skill to predict early, delayed and normal categories was high, since in more than two thirds of the cases the category was successfully predicted, and there were no predictions of categories opposed to those observed. Received July 23, 2001; revised February 22, 2002; accepted April 26, 2002     

Analysis of the Characteristics of the Low-level Jets in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River during the Mei-yu Season

Here, we analyze the characteristics and the formation mechanisms of low-level jets(LLJs) in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River during the 2010 mei-yu season using Wuhan station radiosonde data and the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ERA5) reanalysis dataset. Our results show that the vertical structure of LLJs is characterized by a predominance of boundary layer jets(BLJs) concentrated at heights of 900–1200 m.The BLJs occur most frequently at 230...