动力气候模式输出产品释用技术的研究和应用

对国家气候中心１９９６年１～１２月用Ｔ６３模式所作的５００ｈＰａ３４次月延伸预报进行了检验评估，并对模式的系统性误差进行了分析和订正。在假定订正后的Ｔ６３延伸预报完全准确的条件下，用ＥＣＭＷＦ旬平均高度场和西南区域月平均气温和月雨量资料，建立了用Ｔ６３预报产品预测西南区域月要素场的一种完全预报（ＰＰ）的动力统计关系。并对西南区域１９９６年２月至１９９７年１月逐月平均气温和降水进行了预报试验。     

气温插值中不同空间插值方法的适用性分析——以江苏省为例

气温是最重要的气象因子之一,空间插值为台站气象数据降尺度提供了有效方法.本文利用江苏省67个气象台站2003年的逐日气温资料计算逐月平均气温和年平均气温,结合空间分辨率为30mX 30m的DEM数据,分别利用反距离权重法、张力样条插值法、普通克里格插值法和协同克里格插值法,对月和年平均气温进行插值,并利用交叉验证法对插...     

欧亚大陆冬季雪盖同四川夏季旱涝的关系

本文利用1966年～1983年冬季雪盖资料研究了欧亚大陆冬季(12～2月)雪盖面积同后期四川月平均气温和月降雨量之间的关系。研究表明:欧亚大陆冬季雪盖面积对四川省夏季月平均气温为负相关,同月降雨量为正相关。这种关系说明冬季雪盖面积对夏季气温和降雨量有重要的滞后影响,尤其是对川东伏旱地区的作用更为显著。还说明冬季雪盖面积大,夏季月平均气温比多年平均值偏低,月降雨量比多年平均值偏多,高温伏旱轻;相反 冬季雪盖面积小时,夏季月平均气温比多年平均值偏高,月降雨量比多年平均值偏少,高温伏旱严重。     

陕西近40年气候变化特征的分析

利用陕西96个台站近40a气候资料，通过对气温和降水两个基本气象要素变化特征进行全面分析，得到陕西气候变化的一些特征。（1）近40a来，陕西平均气温在经历了20世纪60年代后期的低温后，从80年代中期开始有明显的上升趋势，陕北西部上升幅度最为明显；冬季平均气温明显上升，夏季平均气温有明显的降低趋势；极端气温明显上升，特别是90年代以后极端最低气温上升明显。（2）陕西平均年总降水量波动略有减少，自20世纪90年代以后冬季降水量增加明显，夏季降水量减少，尤其是关中西部增加明显。（3）年平均气温、季平均气温变化存在以1985年为跃变点，这次跃变比全国晚5～7a，比西北地区提前1a。     

近10年黑龙江省气温的时空变异分析

以ArcGIS Analyst为支撑,80个气象站点观测的1997-2006年的旬平均气温为插值变量,利用高程、坡向等影响气温空间分异的局地因素作为协同变量,采用协同克里格(CoKriging)方法,考虑旬平均气温的自相关性以及旬平均气温与高程、坡向空间上的关联性,通过数据的检查、误差拟合、精度评价和模型比较,对黑龙江省旬平均气温进行空间插值,求得全省1km×1km的各旬平均气温表面数据。36旬气温插值结果的均误差、均方根误差、平均标准差、标准化均误差和均方根标准差的平均数分别为0.0024℃、0.774℃、0.682℃、0.0006和1.124。由旬平均气温插值结果叠加计算出月、年平均气温表面数据。利用插值计算结果和气象站点观测的数据,分析旬、月和年平均气温的时空分异特征,得出空间上东南部地区分异较小,其他地区分异较大时间上11-13、12-14、19-21等旬期平均气温有平稳下降趋势,15-17、26-28和27-29等旬期平均气温有平稳升高趋势。7月气温有稍许下降趋势,9月和11月的平均气温稍有上升趋势,5-9月平均气温升高约1℃。年平均气温以2.9℃为均值在2.5~3.3℃之间波动,略有升高但无明显上升趋势。春季之交一些旬期平均气温变化率降低趋稳,夏秋之交一些旬期平均气温变化率升高,实际物候有向后延迟的迹象。研究结果为气温变化监测、农业区划、土地生产潜力计算和千亿斤粮食背景下作物估产等相关研究奠定基础。     

2016-01-21青海门源MS6.4地震震前应力降变化特征研究

利用甘肃省数字地震台网记录的波形数据，采用Atkinson多台多震计算非弹性衰减系数方法和Moya遗传算法，计算2016年门源MS6.4地震震前3 a震源区及周围地区157个ML2.0以上地震的应力降参数，应力降值分布在0.02~10.86 MPa，平均值为1.67 MPa。结果显示，应力降高值区主要集中在皇城-双塔断裂与冷龙岭断裂之间，与研究区内中强地震活动范围具有很强的一致性；2013年肃南-门源交界MS5.1地震前数月开始出现显著的应力降高值，震后逐渐下降，直到2016年门源MS6.4地震发生前，应力降总体处于较低水平，但在MS6.4地震前半年左右，应力降月均值出现两次高值异常，与门源地震具有一定的对应关系。     

湛江气温的多时间尺度特征及其变化趋势预测

利用MHAT小波函数分析了湛江市近50年来年平均气温的多时间尺度变化特征，并采用Kalman滤波模型对年平均温度的变化趋势进行了预测研究。结果表明，在半个多世纪的气候变化过程中包含了16a、4a和准2a的周期振荡，20世纪80年代中期以来湛江气温持续升高，且未来几年仍处于偏高阶段。卡尔曼滤波模型对湛江年平均气温的预测中，独立样本预测的平均绝对误差（MAE）等于0．30℃，相对误差为1．24％，对短期气候预测工作具有较高的参考价值。     

试论青海省国土资源的可持续发展战略

我省位于青藏高原东北部,国土面积71.75万km2,位居全国第四位,省内50%的地区海拔均在3000m以上,北有祁连山脉与甘肃省相隔,西有阿尔金山脉与新疆自治区相望,南有唐古拉山脉与西藏自治区接壤。我省属大陆高原性气候,自然条件较为恶劣,省内平均气温0.7℃￣7.7℃,年平均降水量196.     

近47年白银市气候变化及其对农业生产的影响分析

利用白银市4个代表站逐日平均气温、逐日地面最低温度，分别得到≥0℃初终日期、初终霜冻日期以及利用逐月平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温和逐月降水资料，对白银市近47a的气候变化特征进行分析，同时分析了气候变化对农业生产的影响，为充分利用变化了的农业气候资源，减少不利因素带来的影响提出了对策和建议。     

彭州市立体农业气候资源的研究(二)热量资源分析

利用彭州市境内市气象站，新兴，白果坪的日平均气温资料，进行热量资源分析。结果表明，彭州市7－8月为最热月，多年平均温度低于24．9℃，12－2月为最冷月，多年平均温度高于1．7℃。大多数年全年稳定通过0℃，可一年四季进行农业耕作，有利于作物越冬和多年生作物的种植，生长期长，积温丰富。界限温度的初，终日期及持续日数变化较大，积温际变化显著，热量资源随海拔高度增加而减少，各界限温度的初日推迟，终日提前，持续日数和积温减少，温度强度也降低，形成显著的立体农业气候。     

北极海冰的基本特征

本文应用1953～1984年的北极海冰资料,分析各区海冰的季节变化、年际变化、自相关特性及互相关特性。认为Ⅰ区海冰占有最大权重,又具有较大的方差,在全区海冰中起着重耍作用。冬季,各区海冰相互关联,其余季节,基本上相互独立。各区海冰均提供了气候“贮存”机制,一个季节的冰能影响下一个季节冰的特性;冬季的贮存能力大于夏季,春秋次之;Ⅱ区和Ⅳ区冰的持续性优于Ⅰ区 。     

INTERANNUAL OSCILLATION OF MERIDIONAL SEA LEVEL WID AND ITS IMPACT ON SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

INTRODUCTIONTheSouthChinaSea(Srs),nearthewestedgeofthetropicalwestPade,istheoTilyquasi-endotaldeepbasinintheworid,hasa相似文献   

Interannual Variability of the Hadley Circulation Associated with Tropical Pacific SST Anomaly

The seasonal and interannual variability of zonal mean Hadley circulation are analyzed, and the important effects of sea surface temperature(SST), especially the tropical Pacific SST, on the meridional circulation are discussed. Following results are obtained: 1) the Hadley circulation presents a single clockwise(anticlockwise) cross-equator circulation in the Northern(Southern) Hemisphere winter,while it is a double-ring-shaped circulation quasi-symmetric about the equator in spring and autumn. The annual mean state just indicates the residual of the Hadley cell in winter and summer. 2) The first mode of interannual anomalies shows a single cell crossing the equator like the climatology in winter and summer but with narrower width. The second mode shows a double ring-shaped cell quasi-symmetric about the equator which is similar to the Hadley cell in spring or autumn. 3) Vertical motion of the Hadley circulation is driven by sea surface temperature(SST) through latent and sensible heat in the tropics, and the interannual anomalies are mainly driven by the SST anomaly(SSTa) in the tropical Pacific. 4) The meridional gradient of SSTa is well consistent with the lower meridional wind of Hadley circulation in the interannual part. For the spatial distribution, the meridional gradient of SSTa in the Pacific plays a major role for the first two modes while the effects of the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean can be ignored.     

Long-term variability of the sharp thermocline in the Yellow and East China Seas

Based on observed temperature data since the 1950s, long-term variability of the summer sharp thermocline in the Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass (YSCWM) and East China Sea Cold Eddy (ECSCE) areas is examined. Relationships between the thermocline and atmospheric and oceanic forcing were investigated using multiyear wind, Kuroshio discharge and air temperature data. Results show that: 1) In the YSCWM area, thermocline strength shows about 4-year and 16-year period oscillations. There is high correlation between summer thermocline strength and local atmospheric temperature in summer and the previous winter; 2) In the ECSCE area, interannual oscillation of thermocline strength with about a 4-year period (stronger in El Ni o years) is strongly correlated with that of local wind stress. A transition from weak to strong thermocline during the mid 1970s is consistent with a 1976/1977 climate shift and Kuroshio volume transport; 3) Long-term changes of the thermocline in both regions are mainly determined by deep layer water, especially on the decadal timescale. However, surface water can modify the thermocline on an interannual timescale in the YSCWM area.     

基于多源数据的华北平原地下水储量时空变化分析

利用GRACE卫星数据反演华北平原2003~2015年地下水储量变化,并用监测井数据进行验证。基于EOF方法分解GRACE年际地下水储量变化,结合冬小麦年均WFblue和TRMM降雨数据分析影响华北平原地下水储量年际变化的因素。结果表明,前2个特征向量方差贡献率为93.09%。其中,第1模态方差贡献率为80.04%,与华北平原2003~2009年冬小麦年均WFblue空间变化的相关系数为-0.69,且空间分布一致;第2模态方差贡献率为13.05%,与同时段降水数据的空间分布的相关系数为0.93。说明农业灌溉,尤其是冬小麦的灌溉对华北平原地下水的消耗起着至关重要的作用。     

Recent climate trends on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, Xinjiang, China

In arid regions, mountains fulfill important ecological and economic functions for the surrounding lowlands. In the scenario of global warming, mountain ecosystems change rapidly, especially in the arid region of northwestern China. This paper provides an assessment of the changes in temperature and precipitation in the historical records of climate on the northern slopes of the eastern Tianshan Mountains. A Mann-Kendall nonparametric trend and Sen＇s tests are employed to analyze the interannual changes and innerannual variability in temperature and precipitatiofi in the regions of low to high altitude. The present study finds that the largest increases in annual temperature are observed at stations in the low altitude regions. The significant increasing trends in temperature tend to occur mainly in late winter and early spring at stations from middle to high altitude, but in summer and autumn at stations of low altitudes. The increasing trends in annual precipitation are found from the middle to high altitude areas, but decreasing trends are found in the low altitude areas. The significant increasing trends in precipitation occur mostly in winter and earlier spring at stations from the middle to high altitudes, while the increasing and decreasing trend coexists at stations of low altitude with most of the significant trend changes occurring in March, June and August.     

Interannual variability of the spring Wyrtki Jet

Feature s of the interannual variability of the spring Wyrtki Jet in the tropical Indian Ocean are revealed using observation data and model output.The results show that the jet has significant interannual variation,which has a significant correlation with winter El Nino Modoki index(R=0.62).During spring after an El Nino(La Nina) Modoki event,the Wyrtki Jet has a positive(negative) anomaly,forced by a westerly(easterly) wind anomaly.The result of a linear-continuously stratified model shows that the first two baroclinic modes explain most of the interannual variability of the spring Wyrtki Jet(-70%) and the third to fifth modes together account for approximately 30%.Surface wind anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean are related to the Walker circulation anomaly associated with El Nino/La Nina Modoki.The interannual variability of the spring Wyrtki Jet has an evident impact on sea surface salinity transport before the onset phase of the summer monsoon in the Indian Ocean.     

A strategy for studying shelf circulation in China Seas —Interannual variability of shelf circulation

Circulation in China Seas has been investigated by Chinese oceanographers in some detail for many years. However, owing to data being sparse and scarce, studies were basically concerned in interseasonal (mainly summer and winter) fluctuations and almost none was in the interannual variability of the circulation in China Seas. It is pointed out that the routine (monthly or bimonthly) hydrographical section data on the continental shelf of China Seas accumulated since 1975, can be used to examine the interannual variability of the shelf circulation. An example is given to show there is interannual variability of shelf circulation in the East China Sea. And what is more, a hypothesis is proposed to describe where the interannual variability comes from and to explain why it is strongly correlated with El Niño events. It is strongly suggested that the interannual variability of the shelf circulation in China Seas be studied, as a strategy, with the routine hydrographical survey, which should be seriously continued, combined with cooperative study in the Philippine Sea and the western tropical Pacific Ocean.     

Interpretation of sea surface wind interannual vector EOFs over the China seas

Using interpolation and averaging methods, we analyzed the sea surface wind data obtained from December 1992 to November 2008 by the scatterometers ERS-1, ERS-2, and QuikSCAT in the area of 2°N–39 °N, 105°E–130°E, and we reported the monthly mean distributions of the sea surface wind field. A vector empirical orthogonal function (VEOF) method was employed to study the data and three temporal and spatial patterns were obtained. The first interannual VEOF accounts for 26% of the interannual variance and displays the interannual variability of the East Asian monsoon. The second interannual VEOF accounts for 21% of the variance and reflects the response of China sea winds to El Niño events. The temporal mode of VEOF-2 is in good agreement with the curve of the Niño 3.4 index with a four-month lag. The spatial mode of VEOF-2 indicates that four months after an El Niño event, the southwesterly anomalous winds over the northern South China Sea, the East China Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the Bohai Sea can weaken the prevailing winds in winter, and can strengthen the prevailing winds in summer. The third interannual VEOF accounts for 10% of the variance and also reflects the influence of the ENSO events to China Sea winds. The temporal mode of VEOF-3 is similar to the curve of the Southern Oscillation Index. The spatial mode of VEOF-3 shows that the northeasterly anomalous winds over the South China Sea and the southern part of the East China Sea can weaken the prevailing winds, and southwesterly anomalous winds over the northern part of the East China Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the Bohai Sea can strengthen the prevailing winds when El Niño occurs in winter. If El Niño happens in summer, the reverse is true.     

Climate Changes in Northeastern China During Last Four Decades

The northeastern China is a sensitive region of climate change, whose detailed trend of climate changes is highly interesting. In this study, this kind of variation trend was analyzed. Potential evapotranspiration (PE) and moisture index (MI) were modeled by using Thornthwaite scheme based on the observation data of 1961-2004 from 94 meteorological stations. To describe the climate fluctuation in the northeastern China in 1961-2004, the linear regression method was used to analyze the variation trends of mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, PE and MI. Mann-Kendall method was used to test the significant difference. The results show a general increasing tendency in mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, PE and MI. However increasing tendency was more significant in mean annual temperature and PE than in mean annual precipitation and MI. Analysis of seasonal climate variation indicates that there showed positive trends in winter and in spring, while the positive trend was more significant in winter than in spring. Furthermore, the relations between climate changes and geographical factors were analyzed, the results show that both climate factors and their interannual variability were correlated to latitude, longitude and altitude, suggesting that latitude is the most climate factor affecting climate changes, followed by altitude and longitude.