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Tsunamis are high-impact disasters that can cause death and destruction locally within a few minutes of their occurrence and
across oceans hours, even up to a day, afterward. Efforts to establish tsunami warning systems to protect life and property
began in the Pacific after the 1946 Aleutian Islands tsunami caused casualties in Hawaii. Seismic and sea level data were
used by a central control center to evaluate tsunamigenic potential and then issue alerts and warnings. The ensuing events
of 1952, 1957, and 1960 tested the new system, which continued to expand and evolve from a United States system to an international
system in 1965. The Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific (ITSU) steadily improved through the decades as more stations became
available in real and near-real time through better communications technology and greater bandwidth. New analysis techniques,
coupled with more data of higher quality, resulted in better detection, greater solution accuracy, and more reliable warnings,
but limitations still exist in constraining the source and in accurately predicting propagation of the wave from source to
shore. Tsunami event data collected over the last two decades through international tsunami science surveys have led to more
realistic models for source generation and inundation, and within the warning centers, real-time tsunami wave forecasting
will become a reality in the near future. The tsunami warning system is an international cooperative effort amongst countries
supported by global and national monitoring networks and dedicated tsunami warning centers; the research community has contributed
to the system by advancing and improving its analysis tools. Lessons learned from the earliest tsunamis provided the backbone
for the present system, but despite 45 years of experience, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami reminded us that tsunamis strike
and kill everywhere, not just in the Pacific. Today, a global intergovernmental tsunami warning system is coordinated under
the United Nations. This paper reviews historical tsunamis, their warning activities, and their sea level records to highlight
lessons learned with the focus on how these insights have helped to drive further development of tsunami warning systems and
their tsunami warning centers. While the international systems do well for teletsunamis, faster detection, more accurate evaluations,
and widespread timely alerts are still the goals, and challenges still remain to achieving early warning against the more
frequent and destructive local tsunamis. 相似文献
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Tsunami is one of the most devastating natural coastal disasters. Most of large tsunamis are generated by submarine earthquakes occurring in subduction zones. Tsunamis can also be triggered by volcano eruptions and large landslides. There are many records about "sea-overflow" in Chinese ancient books, which are not proved to be tsunamis. Tectonics and historical records analysis are import to forecast and prevention of tsunami. Consider the tectonic environment of the China sea, the possibility of huge damage caused by the offshore tsunami is very small. And the impact of the ocean tsunami on the Bohai sea, the Yellow sea, and the East China sea is also small. But in the South China Sea, the Manila subduction zone has been identified as a high hazardous tsunamigenic earthquake source region. No earthquake larger than MW7.6 has been recorded in the past 100a in this region, suggesting a high probability for larger earthquakes in the future. If a tsunamigenic earthquake were to occur in this region in the near future, a tragedy with the magnitude similar to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami could repeat itself. In this paper, based on tectonics and historical records analysis, we have demonstrated that potential for a strong future earthquake along the Manila subduction zone is real. Using a numerical model, we have also shown that most countries in the South China Sea will be affected by the tsunamis generated by the future earthquake. For China, it implies that the maximum wave height over 4.0 meter on China mainland, especially the Pearl River Estuary. But the island, local relief maybe influence the maximum wave. But it takes nearly 3 hours to attack China mainland, if there is the operational tsunami warning system in place in this region, should be greatly reduced losses. And the simulated results are conformable to historical records. It indicates that the tsunami hazards from Manila trench to China mainland worthy of our attention and prevention. 相似文献
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On 15 July 2009, a Mw 7.8 earthquake occurred off the New Zealand coast, which by serendipitous coincidence occurred while
the International Tsunami Symposium was in session in Novosibirsk, Russia. The earthquake generated a tsunami that propagated
across the Tasman Sea and was detected in New Zealand, Australia and as far away as the US West coast. Small boats close to
the epicenter were placed in jeopardy, but no significant damage was observed despite a measured run-up height of 2.3 m in
one of the Sounds in close proximity to the source (Wilson in GNS Science Report 46:62 2009). Peak-to-trough tsunami heights of 55 cm were measured at Southport, Tasmania and a height of 1 m was measured in Jackson
Bay, New Zealand. The International Tsunami Symposium provided an ideal venue for illustration of the value of immediate real-time
assessment and provided an opportunity to further validate the real time forecasting capabilities with the scientific community
in attendance. A number of agencies with responsibility for tsunami forecast and/or warning, such as the NOAA Center for Tsunami
Research, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, GNS Science in New Zealand, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the European
Commission Joint Research Centre were all represented at the meeting and were able to demonstrate the use of state of the
art numerical models to assess the tsunami potential and provide warning as appropriate. 相似文献
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Phil R. Cummins Laura S. L. Kong Kenji Satake 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2008,165(11-12):1983-1989
In this introduction we briefly summarize the 14 contributions to Part I of this special issue on Tsunami Science Four Years after the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. These papers are representative of the new tsunami science being conducted since the occurrence of that tragic event. Most of these were presented at the session: Tsunami Generation and Hazard, of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics XXIV General Assembly held at Perugia, Italy, in July of 2007. That session included over one hundred presentations on a wide range of topics in tsunami research. The papers grouped into Part I, and introduced here, cover topics directly related to tsunami mitigation such as numerical modelling, hazard assessment and databases. Part II of this special issue, Observations and Data Analysis, will be published in a subsequent volume of Pure and Applied Geophysics. 相似文献
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香港海啸监测及警报系统的发展 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
地震监测、海啸数值模拟和海平面监测是监测和预报海啸的主要工具。为了有效监测南海北部可能发生的地震海啸,香港天文台(HKO)正在香港筹建一个宽频地震站,同时通过太平洋海啸警报及减灾系统(PTWS)的框架取得美国加州综合地震网(CISN)显示系统的实时地震信息,并通过世界气象组织(WM0)的全球通信系统(GTS)接收南海和西北太平洋的验潮站和海啸浮标数据以监测海面的波动情况。香港天文台通过联合国教科文组织(UNESCO)政府间海洋学委员会(IOC)取得海啸漫滩模式交换计划(TIME)下的海啸数值模式,把香港本地的高分辨率水深和地形数据融合在模式之内,并利用这个模式计算南海多处地区在不同地震情景下的海啸传播,为海啸预报提供重要的参考数据。 相似文献
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In this introduction we briefly summarize the fourteen contributions to Part II of this special issue on Tsunami Science Four Years After the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. These papers are representative of the new tsunami science being conducted since the occurrence of that tragic event. Most of these were presented at the session: Tsunami Generation and Hazard, of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics XXIV General Assembly held at Perugia, Italy, in July of 2007. That session included over one hundred presentations on a wide range of topics in tsunami research. The papers grouped into Part II, and introduced here, cover field observations of recent tsunami’s, modern studies of historical events, coastal sea-level observations and case studies in tsunami data analysis. 相似文献
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Hajime Naruse Shigehiro Fujino Apichart Suphawajruksakul Thanawat Jarupongsakul 《Island Arc》2010,19(3):399-411
Multiple‐layered tsunami deposits have been frequently reported from coastal stratigraphic sequences, but the formation processes of these layers remain uncertain. A terrestrial sandy deposit formed by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami was investigated at Ban Nam Kem, southern Thailand. Four internal layers induced by two tsunami waves were identified in the tsunami deposit. Sedimentary structures indicated that two units were formed by run‐up currents caused by the tsunami and the other two units were deposited by the backwash flows. Graded bedding was common in the layers, but inverse grading was observed at limited intervals on the surveyed transects. The characteristics of the multiple‐layered tsunami deposit vary remarkably over a very short distance (<1 m) in response to the local topography. Remarkable asymmetries in thickness and grain‐size distribution are recognized between the run‐up and backwash flow deposits. On the basis of the interpretation of sedimentary structures, the formation process of the multiple‐layered tsunami deposit observed in this study can be explained in a schematic model as the modification of the ideal tsunami sequence by local erosion and the asymmetric hydraulic properties of tsunami waves, such as the maximum shear velocity and the heterogeneity of the flow velocity field. 相似文献
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Sumatra tsunami: lessons from modeling 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The need for the combination of seismic data with real-time wave height information for an effective prediction of tsunami impact is emphasized in the paper. A preliminary, but comprehensive study of arrival times, wave heights and run-up values at a number of locations and tide gage stations throughout the Indian Ocean seaboard is presented. Open ocean wave height data from satellite observations are analyzed and used in the reconstruction of a tsunami source mechanism for the December 26, 2004 event. The reconstructed source is then used to numerically estimate tsunami impact along the Indian Ocean seaboard, including wave height, and arrival times at 12 tide gage stations, and inundation at 3 locations on the coast of India. The December 2004, as well as the March 28, 2005 tsunamis are investigated and their differences in terms of tsunami generation are analyzed and presented as a clear example of the need for both, seismic and real-time tsunami data for a reliable tsunami warning system in the Indian Ocean. 相似文献
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Fifteen papers are included in Volume 2 of a PAGEOPH topical issue Tsunamis in the World Ocean: Past, Present, and Future. These papers are briefly introduced. They are grouped into three categories: reports and studies of recent tsunamis, studies
on tsunami statistics and application to tsunami warning, and modeling studies of tsunami runup and inundation. Most of the
papers were presented at the 24th International Tsunami Symposium held 14–16 July 2009 in Novosibirsk, Russia, and reflect
the current state of tsunami science. 相似文献
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地震海啸监测预警现状与进展 总被引:3,自引:2,他引:1
2004年12月26日印度洋地震大海啸引起了全世界公众的关注和政府的重视,如何预防地震海啸造成的灾害,建立有效的预警机制,成为政府和社会关注的话题。介绍了国内外地震海啸监测预警的历史、现状与当前的发展方向。 相似文献
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Chao AN 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2021,64(2):191-204
Tsunamis are one of the most destructive disasters in the ocean.Large tsunamis are mostly generated by earthquakes,and they can propagate across the ocean without significantly losing energy.During the shoaling process in coastal areas,the wave amplitude increases dramatically,causing severe life loss and property damage.There have been frequent tsunamis since the 21 st century,drawing the attention of many countries on the study of tsunami mechanism and warning.Tsunami records also play an essential role in deriving earthquake rupture models in subduction zones.This paper reviews the recent progress and limitations of tsunami research,from the aspects of tsunami generation,propagation,inversion and warning.Potential tsunami warning strategies are discussed and future prospects on tsunami research are provided. 相似文献
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Paula K. Dunbar Kelly J. Stroker Vanita R. Brocko Jesse D. Varner Susan J. McLean Lisa A. Taylor Barry W. Eakins Kelly S. Carignan Robin R. Warnken 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2008,165(11-12):2275-2291
In response to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the United States began a careful review and strengthening of its programs aimed at reducing the consequences of tsunamis. Several reports and calls to action were drafted, including the Tsunami Warning and Education Act (Public Law 109–424) signed into law by the President in December 2006. NOAA’s National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and co-located World Data Center for Geophysics and Marine Geology (WDC-GMG) maintain a national and international tsunami data archive that fulfills part of the P.L. 109-424. The NGDC/WDC-GMG long-term tsunami data archive has expanded from the original global historical event databases and damage photo collection, to include tsunami deposits, coastal water-level data, DART? buoy data, and high-resolution coastal DEMs. These data are used to validate models, provide guidance to warning centers, develop tsunami hazard assessments, and educate the public about the risks from tsunamis. In this paper we discuss current steps and future actions to be taken by NGDC/WDC-GMG to support tsunami hazard mitigation research, to ultimately help save lives and improve the resiliency of coastal communities. 相似文献
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We develop stochastic approaches to determine the potential for tsunami generation from earthquakes by combining two interrelated
time series, one for the earthquake events, and another for the tsunami events. Conditional probabilities for the occurrence
of tsunamis as a function of time are calculated by assuming that the inter-arrival times of the past events are lognormally
distributed and by taking into account the time of occurrence of the last event in the time series. An alternative approach
is based on the total probabilitiy theorem. Then, the probability for the tsunami occurrence equals the product of the ratio,
r (= tsunami generating earthquakes/total number of earthquakes) by the conditional probability for the occurrence of the next
earthquake in the zone. The probabilities obtained by the total probability theorem are bounded upwards by the ratio r and, therefore, they are not comparable with the conditional probabilities. The two methods were successfully tested in three
characteristic seismic zones of the Pacific Ocean: South America, Kuril-Kamchatka and Japan. For time intervals of about 20
years and over the probabilities exceed 0.50 in the three zones. It has been found that the results depend on the approach
applied. In fact, the conditional probabilities of tsunami occurrence in Japan are slightly higher than in the South America
region and in Kuril-Kamchatka they are clearly lower than in South America. Probabilities calculated by the total probability
theorem are systematically higher in South America than in Japan while in Kuril-Kamchatka they are significantly lower than
in Japan. The stochastic techniques tested in this paper are promising for the tsunami potential assessment in other tsunamigenic
regions of the world. 相似文献
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Dieter Kelletat Sander R. Scheffers Anja Scheffers 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(2-3):413-431
The Andaman-Sumatra Tsunami of Dec. 26, 2004, was by far the largest tsunami catastrophe in human history. An earthquake of
9 to 9.3 on the Richter scale, the extension of waves over more than 5000 km of ocean and run-ups up to 35 m are its key features.
These characteristics suggest significant changes in coastal morphology and high sediment transport rates. A field survey
along the west coast of Thailand (Phuket Island, Khao Lak region including some Similan Islands, Nang Pha mangrove areas and
Phi Phi Don Islands) seven to nine weeks after the tsunami, however, discovered only small changes in coastal morphology and
a limited amount of dislocated sediments, restricted to the lower meters of the tsunami waves. This is in striking contrast
to many paleo-tsunami's events of the Atlantic region. Explanations for this discrepancy are sought in:
a. Mechanics of the earthquake. A rather slow shock impulse on the water masses over the very long earthquake zone,
b. Shallow water in the earthquake zone, and
c. Bathymetry of the foreshore zone at the impacted sites. Shallow water west of Thailand has diminished wave energy significantly.
The differences in geomorphological and sedimentological signatures of this tsunami compared with many paleo-tsunami worldwide
makes it unsuitable to be used as a model for old and future tsunami imprints by an event of this extreme energy and extension. 相似文献
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简要介绍了南中国海区域海啸预警与减灾系统的建设和发展历程,同时重点阐述了地震监测系统构成及其基本功能。作为重要组成部分,地震监测系统通过地震数据的实时汇集、存储、自动处理和分析,并结合人机交互方式实现了地震定位、震源机制解和有限断层模型反演。实际应用表明,地震监测系统对全球6.0级以上地震定位时间不超过8 min,在震后10—15 min内完成W震相方法快速反演海底强震震源机制解,在震后短时间内完成有限断层模型反演,为海啸预警提供快速、准确、可靠的地震基本参数和震源特征参数。 相似文献