青海东部及邻区强震前地震活动特征参数Wq值的研究

利用1980～2007年以来,青海省东部及邻区（34°～40°N,96°～104°E）ML≥2．3级地震资料进行特征参数耽值的空间扫描。结果表明,在该区域内发生的9次6．0级以上地震中有6次震前7—28个月在震中周围出现叻值异常区,并且大部分地震前的异常区存在异常出现一异常区面积扩大一面积收缩一发震的变化过程,为地震的中短期预报提供了判定依据。     

地磁数据处理与地震关系之探

研究了上海崇明、佘山和杭州这3个地磁台的观测资料在2004年4月21日南黄海ML4．0级、5月26日浙江省舟山群岛ML4．3级和11月15日南黄海％4．6级地震前的异常变化特征,结果表明：杭州台和崇明台数字化地磁观测资料分钟值空间差值于4月14日～17日、4月30日、5月8日出现的异常信息很可能是震磁异常信息;杭州台和余山台数字化地磁观测资料分钟值、模拟观测21时值Z分量地磁场相关系数R值分别在震前2天、24天和震前5天、15天出现了超出2σ值的震磁异常变化：崇明和余山地磁台数字化地磁Z分量分钟值的空间差值异常信息在4月21日南黄海尬4．0级地震前后有所显示。但在5月26日舟山群岛ML4．3级地震前不太明显,可能与谈两个地磁台站相距较近日震中距较近有美．     

随州-信阳ML4.2地震前定点形变异常特征

分析了2000年1月28日随州和信阳交界处发生的ML4．2地震前，信阳地震台（△＝35km)定点形变中短期及临震异常特征。分析研究表明：该次地震前信阳台目视水管倾斜仪EW向测值从1999年6开始出现反向变化，NS向测值从1999年3月开始出现加速变化；水平摆倾余仪EW向和NS向测值分别从1999年2月和1999年6月开始出现反向变化。这些异常于2000年下半年结束。震前3天水管倾斜仪EW向测值出现加速变化；震前5－8天NS向测值除了出现加速变化外，还出现突跳。城前约20天，水平摆倾斜仪2个方向测值构出现了准周期性波动变化。另外，形变固体潮潮汐因子也有明显异常。     

应力调制在华东地区地震预报中的应用

应用应力调制图像法,对上海地区1970～2007年以来的18次ML≥5．0地震进行了检验。结果显示,有15次地震的震前出现了Se值异常单元,虚报地震9次,漏报3次。     

应力调制在辽宁地区地震预报中的应用

应用应力调制图像法对辽宁地区1970年以来的21次ML≥5．0地震进行了检验。结果显示，有18次地震的震前出现了S值异常单元，虚报地震11次，漏报3次，R值评分0．58。     

青藏高原北部地区地震活动短期异常震例特征研究

以活动地块为单元,研究了青藏高原北部地区1970年以来的30次Ms≥5．0级地震前ML≥2．1级小震的频度、b值、缺震、调制比4项活动性参数的短临异常特征,结果发现,这30次中强地震前,4项指标异常持续时间和异常结束至发震的时间,大部分都在1～6个月之内,尤其是异常结束到发震的时间,在1～6个月内的占异常总数的77％以上。而且30次地震前,4项指标均出现异常的有15次,占地震总数的50％;震前3项指标出现异常的5次,占地震总数的17％;2项指标出现异常的有6次,占地震总数的20％;1项指标出现异常的有3次,占总数的10％。特别是祁连山地块,异常比较丰富,以4项和3项指标异常为主,同时又以5项次以上异常的数量特征表现。     

东北地震活动性短期预报方法研究

研究了1970年以来东北地区发生的MS≥5·0浅源地震孕育过程中地震活动性参数和地震活动图像的变化特征,并对地震活动性参数进行了比较系统地综合预报效能评价,结果显示:东北9次(组)浅震地震前,所研究的5项地震活动性参数中,88·9%出现了持续3个月以上的短期异常变化,且5项参数R值评分结果都满足97·5%的置信水平;88·9%地震前震源区附近出现了孕震空区,有87·5%孕震空区在空区边缘或空区内部出现了ML≥4·0逼近地震,逼近地震以单个或成对的形式出现。66·7%的地震在震源区附近出现了地震条带异常。最后给出东北地区中强震的短期预报方法,这对未来东北地区的地震预报工作将起着一定的参考意义。     

海城附近4个震群地震活动特征的对比研究

自1975年以来,海城附近发生具有一定规模和强度的震群（ML≥4．0;震次≥100次）有：1975年2月4日海城7．3级、1999年11月29日岫岩5．4级、2008年11月14日海城Ml4．8和2012年2月2日盖州Ml4．8震群,这4个震群发生前地震活动背景怎样,是否存在着某种共同的特点？对这4个震群进行对比研究发现：震前1年该区出现小震群活动,ML≥3．0地震条带、地震活动水平明显增强,连续发生多次ML≥4．0地震,ML≥4．0地震震源机制高度一致,且震中最近台站记录P波初动符号出现明显的一致性等变化,可视为地震异常。及时捕捉中强地震前异常,对于地震活动趋势判断起到至关重要的作用。     

云南地区3次6级间歇性双震第二主震的前震特征分析

分析大姚6．2，6．1级间歇性双震地震序列的地震波、地震活动变化，以类比方法分析了同震型的1976年盐源-宁蒗6．7，6．4级地震序列，1971年普洱6．7，6．2级地震序列，寻求第二主震的前震活动特征，结果表明：大姚6．2级与盐源-宁蒗6．7级序列中均出现一组P，S波振幅比为直线的前震；双震序列在第一主震后20～60d内，出现3，4级地震频度增高与b值、h值偏离余震衰减准同步异常的现象，第二主震临震前数天出现3，4级地震平静，与第二主震时间间隔仅2～9h，相距震中8km内发生3级显著地震。为预测预报间歇性双震序列的第二主震提供了一定判据。     

A(b)值在东南沿海地区地震预测中的应用

采用A(b)值空间扫描方法对1975年以来东南沿海地区ML2.3到ML4．9级地震资料进行了研究。统计分析了Ms4．6级以上地震前A(b)值异常情况。结果显示大多数Ms4．6级以上地震发生前的1～3年内,震中周围出现A(b)≥5．0的高值异常区域。R值检验结果为0．46。     

Diffuse CO2 efflux from Iwojima volcano,Izu-Ogasawara arc,Japan

Iwojima volcano, located on the southernmost part of the Izu-Ogasawara arc, is characterized by the extrusion of trachyte or trachy andesite lavas and pyroclastic rocks of Holocene and surface thermal manifestations. Small phreatic explosions have been recorded frequently during the last 100 years with the most recent in 1999 and 2001. In order to elucidate the behavior of volcanic volatiles and to assess the potential activity of this volcano, diffuse CO₂ efflux, CO₂ content and δ¹³C–CO₂ in soil gas, and soil temperature at 30 cm depth were measured at 272 sites in March 2000, 112 sites in December 2000 and 40 sites in December 2001. We found that high CO₂ efflux values, of more than 100 g m⁻² day⁻¹, occurred at several locations on Motoyama volcano corresponding with high soil temperatures (more than 60 °C at 30 cm depth) region and with areas where CO₂ with magmatic δ¹³C was observed. Here, the magmatic δ¹³C determined for fumarolic CO₂ data ranged from −2‰ to +3‰, which is clearly higher than magmatic gas values (−8‰ to −2‰) typically found in island arc settings around the world. However, this can be explained in terms of carbon-isotope fractionation between calcite and CO₂ under subsurface temperature and pressure conditions at Iwojima. A total efflux of CO₂ for Iwojima volcano is estimated to be 760 t day⁻¹, with a magmatic contribution of about 450 t day⁻¹. This value is rather high compared with other volcanoes in island arc settings. Since Iwojima has no visible plume, almost all volcanic CO₂ is released as diffuse efflux through the volcanic edifice.     

四川布拖土壤CO_2多年释放特征及影响因素

依据四川省布拖土壤CO2测点2005—2013年的连续数据,分析了CO2的释放特征、来源和影响因素。结果表明,布拖CO2释放率有明显的夏高冬低年变特征,来源于土壤生物呼吸。布拖CO2释放率的主要影响因素为地温和土壤湿度,在每年11月至次年3月,CO2释放率和地温正相关;在每年4~10月,CO2释放率和土壤湿度正相关。结果还表明,布拖CO2释放率在2007、2012和2013年夏季的峰值偏高,其成因为生物生长增长期内降水量偏大引起土壤湿度增大、从而引起土壤呼吸增强、进而引起CO2释放率偏高,与地震孕育或区域构造活动无关。     

Geochemical features of the geothermal CO2-water-carbonate rock system and analysis on its CO2 sources--Examples from Huanglong Ravine and Kangding, Sichuan, and Xiage, Zhongdian, Yunnan

Taking Huanglong Ravine and Kangding, Sichuan, and Xiage, Zhongdian, Yunnan, as examples, the authors summarize the hydrogeochemical and carbon stable isotopic features of the geothermal CO2-water-carbonate rock system and analyze the CO2 sources of the system. It was found that the hydrogeochemical and carbon stable isotopic features of such a system are different from those of shallow CO2-water-carbonate rock system, which is strongly influenced by biosphere. The former has higher CO2 partial pressure, and is rich in heavy carbon stable isotope. In addition, such a geothermal system is also different from that developed in igneous rock. The water in the latter system lacks Ca2+, and thus, there are few tufa deposits on ground surface, but it is rich in light carbon stable isotope. Further analysis shows that CO2 of the geothermal CO2-water-carbonate rock system is a mixture of metamorphic CO2 and magmatic CO2.     

CO2 degassing from Pico Island (Azores,Portugal) volcanic lakes

The CO₂ degassing from lakes on Pico Island (Azores archipelago) were characterized in order to estimate the total diffuse CO₂ output and identify the possible sources of CO₂. Two surveys have been made in each lake (Capitão, Caiado, Rosada, Peixinho, Paúl and Seca), in the winter and summer periods. These water bodies show small surface areas and are rather shallow, with depths ranging from 1.8 to 8.6 m. Water samples are cold, both in winter and summer periods, not presenting variations along the water column, with acid to neutral pH (5.26–7.06). The electrical conductivity values point out to very diluted waters (mean range between 27 and 33.4 μS cm⁻¹), of the Na-Cl type, corresponding to meteoric waters influenced by marine salts.To measure the CO₂ flux at the lakes surface the modified accumulation chamber method was used, and a total of 1632 measurements were accomplished (711 in winter surveys and 921 in summer). Two statistical analysis (GSA and sGs) were applied to the results of diffuse CO₂ flux measurements, showing that the CO₂ flux values measured in theses lakes are relatively low (0.60–20.47 g m⁻² d⁻¹), what seems to indicate a single source for CO₂ (biogenic source), also suggested by the water δ¹³C isotopic signature.CO₂ emissions range between 0.04 t d⁻¹ (Rosada_1) and 0.25 t d⁻¹ (Caiado_1) during the winter surveys, being in general similar to the values recorded during the summer surveys that vary between 0.03 t d⁻¹ (Peixinho_2 and Seca_1) and 0.30 t d⁻¹ (Caiado_2). Taken into account the surface area of the lakes, the highest values were estimated for both surveys made in Seca Lake (˜13 t km⁻² d⁻¹). The occurrence of a dense macrophyte mass in a few of the studied lakes, such as Caiado and Seca, seems to enhance the CO₂ flux from these water bodies.     

Untersuchung der CO2-Konzentration im Tropopausenniveau

Zusammenfassung Zwischen 50° bis 85°N Breite wurde die atmosphärische CO₂-Konzentration während mehrerer Messflüge registriert. Diese war oberhalb der Tropopause bis zu 7 ppm (im Mittel etwa 2 ppm) niedriger als in der oberen Troposphäre. Im Jahresmittel entspricht diese CO₂-Konzentrationsdifferenz einem Fluss von etwa 10^–2 g CO₂/cm² Jahr aus der nördlichen Troposphäre in die Stratosphäre. Die Bedeutung dieser CO₂-Konzentrationsunterschiede für den atmosphärischen CO₂-Haushalt sowie für die Strahlungsbilanz im Tropopausenniveau kann erst nach Vorlage weiterer, über das ganze Jahr verteilter Messdaten erfolgen.

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Summary CO₂-concentration was measured during several flights in northern latitudes (50°–85°). Above Tropopause CO₂-concentration was up to 7 ppm (as a mean some 2 ppm) smaller than in upper troposphere. As a mean this difference in CO₂-concentration cm² year conforms to a CO₂-flux of some 10^–2 g CO₂/cm² year from northern troposphere into stratosphere. The importance of these CO₂-differences for atmospheric CO₂-system and for radiation balance in tropopause-height may be considered as soon as more CO₂-concentration data for the whole year are available.

     

Ice sheets and the CO2 problem

In this review, the carbon dioxide problem is discussed, with special reference to the possible effects of a global warming on the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica. Instead of detailed projections of future climate and the consequences, the basic mechanisms are explained and illustrated with results described in the literature.It is concluded that a doubling of the atmospheric CO₂ content (most likely to occur somewhere in the second half of the next century) will result in a globally-averaged warming of 2–4°C, and an intensification of the hydrological cycle. In the polar regions, this warming will be a few degrees larger and as a consequence the Greenland Ice Sheet will decrease in size. Antarctica, on the other hand, is expected to grow because of the increased snowfall. The instability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is also discussed and, although no conclusive prediction to its long-term response can be made, it is argued that on a short time scale (less than about 100 y) nothing dramatically wil happen to this part of Antarctica.     

地壳中的CO2及其释放与地震短临预测

该文通过对地壳中二氧化碳（ＣＯ２）的分布及其与多震层的关系,以及地壳中ＣＯ２的释放与地震活动关系的分析,探讨了断层带ＣＯ２监测在强震短临预测阶段对时间判定的作用,提出应进一步加强对断层带ＣＯ２释放的监测与研究。     

Carbon stable isotopic composition of karst soil CO2 in central Guizhou, China

The δ¹³c values of soil CO₂ are less than that of atmosphere CO₂ in the karst area. On the soil-air interface, the δ¹³c vlaues of soil CO₂ decrease with the increase in soil depth; below the soil-air interface, the δ¹³c values of soil CO₂ are invariable. The type of vegetation on the land surface has an influence on the δ¹³C values of soil CO₂. Due to the activity of soil microbes, the δ¹³C values of soil CO₂ are variable with seasonal change in ps. Isotopic tracer indicates that atmosphere CO₂ has a great deal of contribution to soil CO₂ at the lower parts of soil proflie. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 49703048 and 49833002)     

Monitoring CO2 saturation using time‐lapse amplitude versus offset analysis of 3D seismic data from the Ketzin CO2 storage pilot site,Germany

The injection of CO₂ at the Ketzin pilot site commenced in June 2008 and was terminated in August 2013 after 67 kT had been injected into a saline formation at a depth of 630–650 m. As part of the site monitoring program, four 3D surface seismic surveys have been acquired to date, one baseline and three repeats, of which two were conducted during the injection period, and one during the post‐injection phase. The surveys have provided the most comprehensive images of the spreading CO₂ plume within the reservoir layer. Both petrophysical experiments on core samples from the Ketzin reservoir and spectral decomposition of the 3D time‐lapse seismic data show that the reservoir pore pressure change due to CO₂ injection has a rather minor impact on the seismic amplitudes. Therefore, the observed amplitude anomaly is interpreted to be mainly due to CO₂ saturation. In this study, amplitude versus offset analysis has been applied to investigate the amplitude versus offset response from the top of the sandstone reservoir during the injection and post‐injection phases, and utilize it to obtain a more quantitative assessment of the CO₂ gaseous saturation changes. Based on the amplitude versus offset modelling, a prominent decrease in the intercept values imaged at the top of the reservoir around the injection well is indeed associated solely with the CO₂ saturation increase. Any change in the gradient values, which would, in case it was positive, be the only signature induced by the reservoir pressure variations, has not been observed. The amplitude versus offset intercept change is, therefore, entirely ascribed to CO₂ saturation and used for its quantitative assessment. The estimated CO₂ saturation values around the injection area in the range of 40%–60% are similar to those obtained earlier from pulsed neutron‐gamma logging. The highest values of 80% are found in the second seismic repeat in close vicinity to the injection and observation wells.     

ARIMA forecasting of ambient air pollutants (O3, NO, NO2 and CO)

In the present study, a stationary stochastic ARMA/ARIMA [Autoregressive Moving (Integrated) Average] modelling approach has been adapted to forecast daily mean ambient air pollutants (O₃, CO, NO and NO₂) concentration at an urban traffic site (ITO) of Delhi, India. Suitable variance stabilizing transformation has been applied to each time series in order to make them covariance stationary in a consistent way. A combination of different information-criterions, namely, AIC (Akaike Information Criterion), HIC (Hannon–Quinn Information Criterion), BIC (Bayesian Information criterion), and FPE (Final Prediction Error) in addition to ACF (autocorrelation function) and PACF (partial autocorrelation function) inspection, has been tried out to obtain suitable orders of autoregressive (p) and moving average (q) parameters for the ARMA(p,q)/ARIMA(p,d,q) models. Forecasting performance of the selected ARMA(p,q)/ARIMA(p,d,q) models has been evaluated on the basis of MAPE (mean absolute percentage error), MAE (mean absolute error) and RMSE (root mean square error) indicators. For 20 out of sample forecasts, one step (i.e., one day) ahead MAPE for CO, NO₂, NO and O₃, have been found to be 13.6, 12.1, 21.8 and 24.1%, respectively. Given the stochastic nature of air pollutants data and in the light of earlier reported studies regarding air pollutants forecasts, the forecasting performance of the present approach is satisfactory and the suggested forecasting procedure can be effectively utilized for short term air quality forewarning purposes.