Intraplate seismicity of the Pacific Basin, 1913–1988

We establish here a comprehensive database of intraplate seismicity in the Pacific Basin. Relocation and analysis of 894 earthquakes yield 403 reliable intraplate earthquakes during 1913–1988. These numbers do not include earthquake swarms, which account for another 838 events. Most of the remainder (304 events) are actually plate boundary earthquakes that have been erroneously located in intraplate regions. A significant number occur in recent years when location capabilities should have guarded against this situation. Relocations involve a careful linear inversion ofP andS arrivals, accompanied by a Monte Carlo statistical analysis. We have also attentively removed the high number of clerical errors and nuclear tests that exist in epicenter bulletins.A geographical examination of the relocated epicenters reveals several striking features. There are three NW-SE lineaments north of the Fiji Plateau and in Micronesia; diffuse seismicity and incompatible focal mechanisms argue against the southernmost, discussed byOkal et al. (1986) andKroenke andWalker (1986), as the simple relocation of the Solomon trench to the North. Besides another striking lineament, along the 130°W meridian, there is also a strong correlation between seismicity and bathymetry in certain parts of the Basin. In the Eastcentral Pacific and Nazca plates there are many epicenters on fracture zones and fossil spreading ridges, and hot spot traces like the Louisville, Nazca and Cocos Ridges also display seismicity.     

A statistical model for estimating the accuracy of event location applied to a network of Scandinavian stations

A statistical model for estimating the errors of epicenter location and origin time is proposed and applied to the old Fennoscandian seismic network. An average crustal model (Sellevoll andPomeroy, 1968) and P and S wave residuals as a function of azimuth have been used. The calculations are carried out for different maximum detection ranges. The analysis shows relatively, small (1 km) standard errors of epicenter location of strong earthquakes for central Fennoscandia. The largest errors are found in the southern and eastern parts of Fennoscandia.On leave from Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland.     

Case 25 application of the concentration parameter of seismoactive faults to Southern California

In this paper we evaluate the present state of the seismic regime in Southern California using the concentration parameter of seismogenic faults (K _sf ,Sobolev andZavyalov, 1981). The purpose of this work is to identify potential sites for large earthquakes during the next five or ten years. The data for this study derived from the California Institute of Technology's catalog of southern California earthquakes, and spanned the period between 1932 to June 1982. We examined events as small asM _L 1.8 but used a magnitude cutoff atM _L =3.3 for a detailed analysis. The size of the target earthquakes (M _M ) was chosen as 5.3 and 5.8.The algorithm for calculatingK _sf used here was improved over the algorithm described bySobolev andZavyalov (1981) in that it considered the seismic history of each elementary seismoactive volume. The dimensions of the elementary seismoactive volumes were 50 km×50 km and 20 km deep. We found that the mean value ofK _sf within 6 months prior to the target events was 6.1±2.0 for target events withM _L 5.3 and 5.41.8 for targets withM _L 5.8. Seventy-three percent of the targets withM _L 5.8 occurred in areas whereK _sf was less than 6.1. The variance of the time between the appearance of areas with lowK _sf values and the following main shocks was quite large (from a few months to ten years) so this parameter cannot be used here for accurate predictions of occurrence time.Regions where the value ofK _sf was below 6.1 at the end of our data set (June, 1982) are proposed as the sites of target earthquakes during the next five to ten years. The most dangerous area is the area east of San Bernardino whereK _sf values are presently between 2.9 and 3.7 and where there has been no earthquake withM _L 5.3 since 1948.     

Cyclic migration of weak earthquakes between Lunigiana earthquake of October 10, 1995 and Reggio Emilia earthquake of October 15, 1996 (Northern Italy)

The cyclic migration of weak earthquakes (M 2.2) which occurred during the yearprior to the October 15, 1996 (M = 4.9) Reggio Emilia earthquake isdiscussed in this paper. The onset of this migration was associated with theoccurrence of the October 10, 1995 (M = 4.8) Lunigiana earthquakeabout 90 km southwest from the epicenter of the Reggio Emiliaearthquake. At least three series of earthquakes migrating from theepicentral area of the Lunigiana earthquake in the northeast direction wereobserved. The migration of earthquakes of the first series terminated at adistance of about 30 km from the epicenter of the Reggio Emiliaearthquake. The earthquake migration of the other two series halted atabout 10 km from the Reggio Emilia epicenter. The average rate ofearthquake migration was about 200–300 km/year, while the time ofrecurrence of the observed cycles varied from 68 to 178 days. Weakearthquakes migrated along the transversal fault zones and sometimesjumped from one fault to another. A correlation between the migratingearthquakes and tidal variations is analysed. We discuss the hypothesis thatthe analyzed area is in a state of stress approaching the limit of thelong-term durability of crustal rocks and that the observed cyclic migrationis a result of a combination of a more or less regular evolution of tectonicand tidal variations.     

Multifractal analysis of earthquakes

Multifractal properties of the epicenter and hypocenter distribution and also of the energy distribution of earthquakes are studied for California, Japan, and Greece. The calculatedD _q-q curves (the generalized dimension) indicate that the earthquake process is multifractal or heterogeneous in the fractal dimension. Japanese earthquakes are the most heterogeneous and Californian earthquakes are the least. Since the earthquake process is multifractal, a single value of the so-called fractal dimension is not sufficient to characterize the earthquake process. Studies of multifractal models of earthquakes are recommended. Temporal changes of theD _q-q curve are also obtained for Californian and Japanese earthquakes. TheD _q-q curve shows two distinctly different types in each region; the gentle type and the steep type. The steeptype corresponds to a strongly heterogeneous multifractal, which appears during seismically active periods when large earthquakes occur.D _q for smallq or negativeq is considerably more sensitive to the change in fractal structure of earthquakes thanD _q forq2. We recommend use ofD _q at smallq to detect the seismicity change in a local area.     

P in the shadow zone of the earth's core—Part I

Summary Regional variations have been indicated in the slope of theP travel-time curve in the shadow zone of the earth's core. Further study is needed since the uncertainties of the slope are large, especially for the observations from North American stations. There is no significant difference between themean slope of theP travel-time curve in the 95°102.9 range and those obtained byJeffreys, andJeffreys andBullen. However, there is a significant difference between themean slope in the 103° to 135° range as obtained in this study, and those obtained byJeffreys andBullen, and in a later revision byJeffreys. Themean travel-time curve ofP in the shadow zone of the earth's core should be lowered. A trial travel-time table is given with amean slope of 4.41 sec/deg. This table is in close agreement with the times obtained byGutenberg andRichter, and with the trial travel-times ofLehmann. Under the assumption of diffraction the longitudinal wave velocity has been determined to be 13.7 km/sec at the core-mantle boundary.This paper was presented at the Annual Meeting of the Seismological Society of America Reno, Nevada, 1966.     

Piezomagnetic monitoring in the South Pacific region

Data from an array of piezomagnetic stations in the South Pacific Islands indicate that noise limitations on piezomagnetic stress monitoring reported for California (Mueller andJohnston, 1981;Johnston et al., 1984) are probably pessimistic since they seem to include significant diurnal residual. Raw station differences could be significant at the 1.0 nT level out to distances of several hundred kilometres. Two large earthquakes have occurred within the network, and no coseismic anomalies were observed. However, changes in observed magnetic field for several stations within 200 km of the earthquakes indicate that stress propagation effects are observable prior to the events, and that these effects dominate the simple elastic effects previously investigated which accompany the stress drops for moderate to large earthquakes.     

Earthquake Triggering along the Xianshuihe Fault Zone of Western Sichuan,China

Western Sichuan is among the most seismically active regions in southwestern China and is characterized by frequent strong (M 6.5) earthquakes, mainly along the Xianshuihe fault zone. Historical and instrumental seismicity show a temporal pattern of active periods separated by inactive ones, while in space a remarkable epicenter migration has been observed. During the last active period starting in 1893, the sinistral strike–slip Xianshuihe fault of 350 km total length, was entirely broken with the epicenters of successive strong earthquakes migrating along its strike. This pattern is investigated by resolving changes of Coulomb failure function (CFF) since 1893 and hence the evolution of the stress field in the area during the last 110 years. Coulomb stress changes were calculated assuming that earthquakes can be modeled as static dislocations in an elastic halfspace, and taking into account both the coseismic slip in strong (M 6.5) earthquakes and the slow tectonic stress buildup associated with major fault segments. The stress change calculations were performed for faults of strike, dip, and rake appropriate to the strong events. We evaluate whether these stress changes brought a given strong earthquake closer to, or sent it farther from, failure. It was found that all strong earthquakes, and moreover, the majority of smaller events for which reliable fault plane solutions are available, have occurred on stress–enhanced fault segments providing a convincing case in which Coulomb stress modeling gives insight into the temporal and spatial manifestation of seismic activity. We extend the stress calculations to the year 2025 and provide an assessment for future seismic hazard by identifying the fault segments that are possible sites of future strong earthquakes.     

Attenuation of high-frequency earthquake waves in South America

Earlier attenuation studies for the South American continent indicate that for Sn and Lg waves there is low attenuation in the shield region east of the Andes, whereas in the west of South America, with some exceptions, there is high attenuation. Those studies, however, were nonquantitative. In this study theQ ₀ (1-Hz values) for Lg waves for South America are presented, based on a scattering model ofAki (1969) as extended byHerrmann (1980) for the coda waves of shallow local and near-regional earthquakes. The results of the codaQ method are compared with those obtained byNuttli's method (1973). TheseQ ₀ values are in good agreement with the apparentQ ₀ of Lg waves obtained by the latter method. The data were obtained from over 100 local and regional earthquakes recorded by 12 WWSSN stations throughout continental South America. They provided a range of frequencies from 0.4 to 1.4 Hz, for which the frequency dependence ofQ was investigated by assumingQ=Q ₀(f/f ₀). The observed data indicate that the tectonic region of western South America is characterized by lowQ ₀ and a large frequency-dependent factor , the values ranging from 150 to 350 and 0.4 to 0.7, respectively. TheQ ₀ values increase in the shield region east of the Andes, but frequency dependence decreases. The average crustalQ ₀ for north and central Argentina ranges from 420 to 580, and ranges from 0.2 to 0.3. TheQ ₀ is larger in the Brazil region, ranging from 580 to 980, and varies from 0.0 to 0.2. In the lower-attenuation region of eastern South America higher values of attenuation correlate with greater thickness of the sedimentary layers.     

The probability of occurrence of largest earthquakes in the European area

Summary TheGumbel's theory of largest values has been applied to the estimation of probability of occurrence and of return periods of largest earthquakes in the European area. For this study shallow shocks from the period 1901–1955 and from 15 earthquake zones were used. For each zone the largest magnitudes corresponding to one-year intervals were arranged in order of increasingM, grouped in classes and then the probabilitiesF(x _j) were calculated. The data plotted on the probability paper fit a straight line fairly well. The extrapolated lines yield the possibility of estimating large magnitudes which will be exceeded with a given probability, e.g. 1%. Such values were compared with largest magnitudes observed during the period 1901–1955. Their return periods indicate that in most regions the largest probable shock already occurred. Following the procedure ofEpstein-Lomnitz the coefficients and were calculated and compared with corresponding values ofa andb of the magnitude-frequency relation.     

Estimation of strong ground motions from hypothetical earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone,Pacific Northwest

Strong ground motions are estimated for the Pacific Northwest assuming that large shallow earthquakes, similar to those experienced in southern Chile, southwestern Japan, and Colombia, may also occur on the Cascadia subduction zone. Fifty-six strong motion recordings for twenty-five subduction earthquakes ofM _s7.0 are used to estimate the response spectra that may result from earthquakesM _w<81/4. Large variations in observed ground motion levels are noted for a given site distance and earthquake magnitude. When compared with motions that have been observed in the western United States, large subduction zone earthquakes produce relatively large ground motions at surprisingly large distances. An earthquake similar to the 22 May 1960 Chilean earthquake (M _w 9.5) is the largest event that is considered to be plausible for the Cascadia subduction zone. This event has a moment which is two orders of magnitude larger than the largest earthquake for which we have strong motion records. The empirical Green's function technique is used to synthesize strong ground motions for such giant earthquakes. Observed teleseismicP-waveforms from giant earthquakes are also modeled using the empirical Green's function technique in order to constrain model parameters. The teleseismic modeling in the period range of 1.0 to 50 sec strongly suggests that fewer Green's functions should be randomly summed than is required to match the long-period moments of giant earthquakes. It appears that a large portion of the moment associated with giant earthquakes occurs at very long periods that are outside the frequency band of interest for strong ground motions. Nevertheless, the occurrence of a giant earthquake in the Pacific Northwest may produce quite strong shaking over a very large region.     

Large earthquakes in the macquarie ridge complex: Transitional tectonics and subduction initiation

While most aspects of subduction have been extensively studied, the process of subduction initiation lacks an observational foundation. The Macquarie Ridge complex (MRC) forms the Pacific-Australia plate boundary between New Zealand to the north and the Pacific-Australia-Antarctica triple junction to the south. The MRC consists of alternating troughs and rises and is characterized by a transitional tectonic environment in which subduction initiation presently occurs. There is a high seismicity level with 15 large earthquakes (M>7) in this century. Our seismological investigation is centered on the largest event since 1943: the 25 MAY 1981 earthquake. Love, Rayleigh, andP waves are inverted to find: a faulting geometry of right-lateral strike-slip along the local trend of the Macquarie Ridge (N30°E); a seismic moment of 5×10²⁷ dyn cm (M _w=7.7) a double event rupture process with a fault length of less than 100km to the southwest of the epicenter and a fault depth of less than 20km. Three smaller thrust earthquakes occurred previous to the 1981 event along the 1981 rupture zone; their shallow-dipping thrust planes are virtually adjacent to the 1981 vertical fault plane. Oblique convergence in this region is thus accommodated by a dual rupture mode of several small thrust events and a large strike-slip event. Our study of other large MRC earthquakes, plus those of other investigators, produces focal mechanisms for 15 earthquakes distributed along the entire MRC; thrust and right-lateral strike-slip events are scattered throughout the MRC. Thus, all of the MRC is characterized by oblique convergence and the dual rupture mode. The true best-fit rotation pole for the Pacific-Australia motion is close to the Minster & Jordan RM2 pole for the Pacific-India motion. Southward migration of the rotation pole has caused the recent transition to oblique convergence in the northern MRC. We propose a subduction initiation process that is akin to crack propagation; the 1981 earthquake rupture area is identified as the crack-tip region that separates a disconnected mosaic of small thrust faults to the south from a horizontally continuous thrust interface to the north along the Puysegur trench. A different mechanism of subduction initiation occurs in the southernmost Hjort trench region at the triple junction. newly created oceanic lithosphere has been subducted just to the north of the triple junction. The entire MRC is a soft plate boundary that must accommodate the plate motion mismatch between two major spreading centers (Antarctica-Australia and Pacific-Antarctica). The persistence of spreading motion at the two major spreading centers and the consequent evolution of the three-plate system cause the present-day oblique convergence and subduction initiation in the Macquarie Ridge complex.     

Regional moments,energy levels,and a new discriminant

Teleseismic observations of explosions tend to be richer in short-period energy than are earthquakes, thus the effectiveness of them _b M _s discriminant. At regional distances the same basic separation occurs for smaller events in terms ofM _L M ₀ (Woods et al., 1993) andm _b M ₀ (Patton andWalter, 1993). While these studies demonstrate the basic differences in excitation, they suffer in practical application because of the detailed information required in the retrieval ofM ₀ . In this paper, we introduce a new method of discrimination, based on the energy strength (M _E ) from broadband regional records that appears to be effective and efficient. In this method all events are processed as earthquakes, and explosions are distinguished by their stronger energy levels relative to their long-period amplitudes. Results from 29 events recorded by TERRAscope, sampling 15 explosions from NTS and 14 earthquakes from the southwestern United States, are represented, indicating complete separation (45 data points).M _L =3.6 is the smallest event examined to date but the method can probably be extended to even smaller levels in calibrated regions.     

A preliminary study on the relationship between precipitation and large earthquakes in Southern California

By comparing seasonal rainfall data from the past 90 years with the occurrence of large (M6) earthquakes along an arid stretch of the San Andreas fault system in southern California, certain correlations have been observed. Most large earthquakes are preceded by a pattern consisting of a few years of below normal precipitation (drought) terminated by one or more consecutive seasons of heavy (above normal) rainfall. While this drought-above normal rainfall cycle can be seen at times other than prior to major earthquakes, it precedes, to varying degrees, all of the twelve M6 events. This new precursor evidence, when combined with other premonitory signals, may offer a helpful diagnostic measure that could be useful in earthquake prediction in arid regions.     

Die ≪Strahlung≫ bei Pouillet und Kirchhoff

Zusammenfassung Der Widerspruch zwischen den Strahlungsgesetzen der Physik und der Definition der Strahlung durchPouillet, die allen bisherigen Strahlungs-Messungen zu Grunde liegt, wird am Modell des schwarzstrahlenden Hohlraums vonKirchhoff gezeigt. Auch die Bestimmungen der Solarkonstante (Kalitins's Liste) sind verloren.

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Summary The contradiction ofPouillet's radiation and the physical laws of radiation sinceKirchhoff, Boltzmann-Stefan, Wien, Lummer andKurlbaum is by the model of the black radiating body ofKirchhoff demonstrated. The measurements of radiation have followed til now to the antiquated idea ofPouillet. The determination of the solar constant as inKalitin's list represented also is lost.

     

Large earthquake doublets and fault plane heterogeneity in the northern Solomon Islands subduction zone

In the Solomon Islands and New Britain subduction zones, the largest earthquakes commonly occur as pairs with small separation in time, space and magnitude. This doublet behavior has been attributed to a pattern of fault plane heterogeneity consisting of closely spaced asperities such that the failure of one asperity triggers slip in adjacent asperities. We analyzed body waves of the January 31, 1974,M _w =7.3, February 1, 1974,M _w =7.4, July 20, 1975 (1437)M _w =7.6 and July 20, 1975 (1945),M _w =7.3 doublet events using an iterative, multiple station inversion technique to determine the spatio-temporal distribution of seismic moment release associated with these events. Although the 1974 doublet has smaller body wave moments than the 1975 events, their source histories are more complicated, lasting over 40 seconds and consisting of several subevents located near the epicentral regions. The second 1975 event is well modeled by a simple point source initiating at a depth of 15 km and rupturing an approximate 20 km region about the epicenter. The source history of the first 1975 event reveals a westerly propagating rupture, extending about 50 km from its hypocenter at a depth of 25 km. The asperities of the 1975 events are of comparable size and do not overlap one another, consistent with the asperity triggering hypothesis. The relatively large source areas and small seismic moments of the 1974 doublet events indicate failure of weaker portions of the fault plane in their epicentral regions. Variations in the roughness of the bathymetry of the subducting plate, accompanying subduction of the Woodlark Rise, may be responsible for changes in the mechanical properties of the plate interface.To understand how variations in fault plane coupling and strength affect the interplate seismicity pattern, we relocated 85 underthrusting earthquakes in the northern Solomon Islands Are since 1964. Relatively few smaller magnitude underthrusting events overlap the Solomon Islands doublet asperity regions, where fault coupling and strength are inferred to be the greatest. However, these asperity regions have been the sites of several previous earthquakes withM _s 7.0. The source regions of the 1974 doublet events, which we infer to be mechanically weak, contain many smaller magnitude events but have not generated any otherM _s 7.0 earthquakes in the historic past. The central portion of the northern Solomon Islands Arc between the two largest doublet events in 1971 (studied in detail bySchwartz et al., 1989a) and 1975 contains the greatest number of smaller magnitude underthrusting earthquakes. The location of this small region sandwiched between two strongly coupled portions of the plate interface suggest that it may be the site of the next large northern Solomon Islands earthquake. However, this region has experienced no known earthquakes withM _s 7.0 and may represent a relatively aseismic portion of the subduction zone.     

Pn residuals and station corrections

Summary This paper is an attempt towards determination of station adjustments for Shillong and Delly Observatories from considerations of a large number ofP _n residuals. Station adjustments toJeffreys-Bullen travel time tables for Shillong comes to about 4 seconds and for Delhi 2 seconds respectively for 20°.     

Turbidometric estimations in Mexico city using the Volz sun photometer

Summary Measuring, with the aid of two filters, the instantaneous intensity of the solar radiation in two wave lengths ( _B = 0.44 , _R = 0.64 ) by means of a sun photometer designed byVolz, we carried out determinations of the decadic turbidity coefficientB (=0.5 ) and the wave length exponent of the haze extinction for Mexico City. Observations were made for almost two and a half years (1960 to 1962 period). A seasonal size distribution in both parameters was found. Although the data thus obtained are provenient of a contaminated atmosphere, comparison of our data is made with those found for higher latitudes ofÅngström, Schüepp andVolz. The height of the homogeneous haze layerH _D was calculated showing pronounced variations for a given wind direction. The maximum and minimum values ofB enable us to get, by the first approximation, the aerosol size distribution ofJunge for our latitudes. However, for exceptional very clear days having maximum actinometric intensity of the solar radiation the sensitivity of the microamperimeter in theVolz sun photometer fails.     

根据构造环境应力场预测峰值水平加速度

在分析了对峰值加速度 PGA 的影响因素之后,我们发现构造环境剪应力场参数τ₀对 PGA起了重要的作用,将τ₀引入 PGA 的预测公式中,同时考虑了 PGA 对频率的依赖性。大地震的PGA 的优越频率 f_a 较低,小地震的 f_a 较高.因此,小地震的衰减系数较大,PGA 衰减较快。基于上述两点改进,提出了新的 PGA 预测公式。在该公式中,构造环境应力场、震级、距离和场地条件是预测将来强地面运动的重要变量。此公式有很大的适用范围,可以用于大地震（矩震级 M_w=6-7.8）,也可以用于较小地震（M_w=3-6）的 PGA 预测;在考虑了世界各个地区不同的构造环境应力值水平以后,新预测公式可以应用于世界不同地区（例如美国加州和中国华北、西南等）。用实际观测资料检验结果表明,预测效果良好。     

Real time test of the long-range aftershock algorithm as a tool for mid-term earthquake prediction in Southern California

Result of the algorithm of earthquake prediction, published in 1982, is examined in this paper. The algorithm is based on the hypothesis of long-range interaction between strong and moderate earthquakes in a region. It has been applied to the prediction of earthquakes withM6.4 in Southern California for the time interval 1932–1979. The retrospective results were as follows: 9 out of 10 strong earthquakes were predicted with average spatial accuracy of 58 km and average delay time (the time interval between a strong earthquake and its best precursor) 9.4 years varying from 0.8 to 27.9 years. During the time interval following the period studied in that publication, namely in 1980–1988, four earthquakes occurred in the region which had a magnitude ofM6.4 at least in one of the catalogs: Caltech or NOAA. Three earthquakes—Coalinga of May, 1983, Chalfant Valley of July, 1985 and Superstition Hills of November, 1987—were successfully predicted by the published algorithm.The missed event is a couple of two Mammoth Lake earthquakes of May, 1980 which we consider as one event due to their time-space closeness. This event occurred near the northern boundary of the region, and it also would have been predicted if we had moved the northern boundary from 38°N to the 39°N; the precision of the prediction in this case would be 30 km.The average area declared by the algorithm as the area of increased probability of strong earthquake, e.g., the area within 111-km distance of all long-range aftershocks currently present on the map of the region during 1980–1988 is equal to 47% of the total area of the region if the latter is measured in accordance with the density distribution of earthquakes in California, approximated by the catalog of earthquakes withM5. In geometrical terms it is approximately equal to 17% of the total area.Thus the result of the real time test shows a 1.6 times increase of the occurrence ofC-events in the alarmed area relative to the normal rate of seismicity. Due to the small size of the sample, it is of course, beyond the statistically significant value. We adjust the parameters of the algorithm in accordance with the new material and publish them here for further real-time testing.