Numerical groundwater-flow modeling to evaluate potential effects of pumping and recharge: implications for sustainable groundwater management in the Mahanadi delta region,India

Process-based groundwater models are useful to understand complex aquifer systems and make predictions about their response to hydrological changes. A conceptual model for evaluating responses to environmental changes is presented, considering the hydrogeologic framework, flow processes, aquifer hydraulic properties, boundary conditions, and sources and sinks of the groundwater system. Based on this conceptual model, a quasi-three-dimensional transient groundwater flow model was designed using MODFLOW to simulate the groundwater system of Mahanadi River delta, eastern India. The model was constructed in the context of an upper unconfined aquifer and lower confined aquifer, separated by an aquitard. Hydraulic heads of 13 shallow wells and 11 deep wells were used to calibrate transient groundwater conditions during 1997–2006, followed by validation (2007–2011). The aquifer and aquitard hydraulic properties were obtained by pumping tests and were calibrated along with the rainfall recharge. The statistical and graphical performance indicators suggested a reasonably good simulation of groundwater flow over the study area. Sensitivity analysis revealed that groundwater level is most sensitive to the hydraulic conductivities of both the aquifers, followed by vertical hydraulic conductivity of the confining layer. The calibrated model was then employed to explore groundwater-flow dynamics in response to changes in pumping and recharge conditions. The simulation results indicate that pumping has a substantial effect on the confined aquifer flow regime as compared to the unconfined aquifer. The results and insights from this study have important implications for other regional groundwater modeling studies, especially in multi-layered aquifer systems.     

Numerical simulation and evaluation of groundwater resources in a fractured chalk aquifer: a case study in Zinder well field,Niger

Groundwater is often a unique water source for agriculture, industry and domestic use for local inhabitants in semi-arid African continent owing to shortage of surface water and rainfall. It is of significance to quantify and assess the groundwater resources for local sustainable development in order to correctly evaluate groundwater resources of Zinder well field with fractured media in Zinder, Niger. A conceptual model of hydrogeology was set up by a geological and hydrogeological survey. For simulating the real conditions, a large multi-well pumping test with designed pumping rate was conducted. In addition, a two-dimensional finite-element transient flow model was developed to simulate groundwater flow at the site. Results show that generally good agreements have been found between the simulated and observed hydrogeology heads for the test. The hydraulic parameters were obtained from the pumping test. A 11-year prediction of groundwater resources has been made under three exploitation schemes, respectively, and it indicates that the well field can offer 7,000 m³/day when the aquifer remains confined. An optimal scheme of exploitation is provided.     

山东淄博市地下水资源评价及其合理开发利用研究

本文采用有限单元法进行地下水资源评价以解决评价区供水面积大、精度要求高的矛盾。首先根据实际的开采量和长期观测孔的水位资料,校正数学模型,反求有关参数;然后给定开采方案进行未来水头的预测;最后研究地下水资源的合理开发利用问题。利用有限单元法进行水源地或单一含水层的地下水资源评价已被证明是先进的、有效的。本文是对水文地质条件非常复杂的大面积的区域,用有限单元法进行地下水资源评价的一种尝试,可供类似地区参考。     

Sustainable groundwater management on the small island of Manukan,Malaysia

Numerical models are capable of simulating various groundwater scenarios and relate it towards groundwater management. This paper focuses on numerical modeling and water balance approaches in the search for a sustainable management plan in Manukan Island. The impacts of pumping and recharge rates represented by groundwater scenarios were investigated by means of hydraulic heads, chloride concentrations and water balance components. Overpumping and inconsistency in recharge rate are the stresses shown in Scenario A. Scenario B involved with reduction pumping rate by 25% has shown an increase in groundwater levels, chloride concentration and groundwater storage. Scenario C showed the most promising finding compared with Scenarios A and B. Highest hydraulic heads, lowest chloride concentration (1,552.2 mg/L) and positive groundwater storage (254.3 m³/day) were obtained in Scenario C. Chloride concentration in pumping wells still exceeds World Health Organization International Standard limit in Scenario C which illustrates an additional water treatment is needed. Nevertheless, in view of a compromise groundwater management plan in study area, Scenario C is the best plan so far to protect the groundwater resources in the study area. More understanding of the artificial recharge method (percolation tank) and study site by means of modeling studies is needed. Additionally, further progress is needed in obtaining the water usage data from each part to determine the best pumping rate. A sustainable groundwater management plan is crucial to maintain the natural resources and social benefits as well as to protect the ecological balance of Manukan Island.     

Postaudit evaluation of conceptual model uncertainty for a glacial aquifer groundwater flow and contaminant transport model

Numerical groundwater flow and contaminant transport modeling incorporating three alternative conceptual models was conducted in 2005 to assess remedial actions and predict contaminant concentrations in an unconfined glacial aquifer located in Milford, Michigan, USA. Three alternative conceptual models were constructed and independently calibrated to evaluate uncertainty in the geometry of an aquitard underlying the aquifer and the extent to which infiltration from two manmade surface water bodies influenced the groundwater flow field. Contaminant transport for benzene, cis-DCE, and MTBE was modeled for a 5-year period that included a 2-year history match from July 2003 to May 2005 and predictions for a 3-year period ending in July 2008. A postaudit of model performance indicates that predictions for pumping wells, which integrated the transport signal across multiple model layers, were reliable but unable to differentiate between alternative conceptual model responses. In contrast, predictions for individual monitoring wells with limited screened intervals were less consistent, but held promise for evaluating alternative hydrogeologic models. Results of this study suggest that model conceptualization can have important practical implications for the delineation of contaminant transport pathways using monitoring wells, but may exert less influence on integrated predictions for pumping wells screened over multiple numerical model layers.     

Inverse modeling and uncertainty analysis of potential groundwater recharge to the confined semi-fossil Ohangwena II Aquifer,Namibia

The identification of potential recharge areas and estimation of recharge rates to the confined semi-fossil Ohangwena II Aquifer (KOH-2) is crucial for its future sustainable use. The KOH-2 is located within the endorheic transboundary Cuvelai-Etosha-Basin (CEB), shared by Angola and Namibia. The main objective was the development of a strategy to tackle the problem of data scarcity, which is a well-known problem in semi-arid regions. In a first step, conceptual geological cross sections were created to illustrate the possible geological setting of the system. Furthermore, groundwater travel times were estimated by simple hydraulic calculations. A two-dimensional numerical groundwater model was set up to analyze flow patterns and potential recharge zones. The model was optimized against local observations of hydraulic heads and groundwater age. The sensitivity of the model against different boundary conditions and internal structures was tested. Parameter uncertainty and recharge rates were estimated. Results indicate that groundwater recharge to the KOH-2 mainly occurs from the Angolan Highlands in the northeastern part of the CEB. The sensitivity of the groundwater model to different internal structures is relatively small in comparison to changing boundary conditions in the form of influent or effluent streams. Uncertainty analysis underlined previous results, indicating groundwater recharge originating from the Angolan Highlands. The estimated recharge rates are less than 1% of mean yearly precipitation, which are reasonable for semi-arid regions.     

地下水数值模拟不确定性分析研究进展

地下水数值模拟不确定性分析旨在提高研究区域地下水流的模拟精度。学者们将地下水数值模拟不确定性分析分为:模型的不确定性、参数的不确定性以及资料的不确定性三类,其中参数的不确定性分析在研究中是最为重要的。同时,对模型、参数、资料不确定性分析的研究进展和成果进行归纳总结,补充关于参数不确定性分析过程中的替代模型的一些研究成果以及模型不确定性分析的多模型分析;强调在地下水数值模拟的过程中,重视模型、资料的不确定性分析;展望未来,随着地下水数值模拟不确定性分析研究的深入,方法和应用会更加多样化。     

Review: Current and emerging methods for catchment-scale modelling of recharge and evapotranspiration from shallow groundwater

A review is provided of the current and emerging methods for modelling catchment-scale recharge and evapotranspiration (ET) in shallow groundwater systems. With increasing availability of data, such as remotely sensed reflectance and land-surface temperature data, it is now possible to model groundwater recharge and ET with more physically realistic complexity and greater levels of confidence. The conceptual representation of recharge and ET in groundwater models is critical in areas with shallow groundwater. The depth dependence of recharge and vegetation water-use feedback requires additional calibration to fluxes as well as heads. Explicit definition of gross recharge vs. net recharge, and groundwater ET vs. unsaturated zone ET, in preparing model inputs and reporting model results is necessary to avoid double accounting in the water balance. Methods for modelling recharge and ET include (1) use of simple surface boundary conditions for groundwater flow models, (2) coupling saturated groundwater models with one-dimensional unsaturated-zone models, and (3) more complex fully-coupled surface-unsaturated-saturated conceptualisations. Model emulation provides a means for including complex model behaviours with lower computational effort. A precise ET surface input is essential for accurate model outputs, and the model conceptualisation depends on the spatial and temporal scales under investigation. Using remote sensing information for recharge and ET inputs in model calibration or in model–data fusion is an area for future research development. Improved use of uncertainty analysis to provide probability bounds for groundwater model outputs, understanding model sensitivity and parameter dependence, and guidance for further field-data acquisition are also areas for future research.     

GMS在双城市城区地下水资源评价中的应用

根据双城市水文地质条件建立了概念模型,应用GMS软件建立了研究区地质结构模型及地下水数值模拟模型。考虑自然条件以及开采量的影响,设计6种方案对研究区地下水流进行预报,结果显示以设计开采量对水源地进行开采,水源地投产10年后最大中心水位降深不会超过最大允许降深。     

The importance of alternative conceptual models for simulation of concentrations in a multi-aquifer system

Four different conceptual models based on alternative geological interpretations were formulated for a shallow 600 km² aquifer system in Denmark comprising Quaternary deposits. Each of the four models was calibrated against groundwater heads and discharge measurements through inverse modeling. Subsequently, the transport capabilities of the four models were compared to 32 concentration measurements of environmental tracers (tritium ³H, helium-3 ³He, chlorofluorocarbons CFC11, CFC12 and CFC113). The flow simulations showed only minor differences in spatial head distribution associated with alternative conceptualizations despite the complexity of the aquifer system and the significant differences in geological interpretations. The models, however, showed major differences in predictions of the age of the groundwater and environmental tracer concentrations, differences that are seen as an effect of model structure uncertainty, because no additional calibrations to these data were performed. A single conceptualization may be adequate in characterizing the natural behavior of a field system after calibration, because the calibration procedure is able to compensate for errors in the data or in the conceptual model through biased parameter values. However, once extrapolation beyond the calibration base is attempted, different conceptual model formulations result in significantly different results. Consequently, it is crucial to take model conceptual uncertainty into account when making predictions beyond the calibration base.     

Modeling approaches and strategies for data-scarce aquifers: example of the Dar es Salaam aquifer in Tanzania

Management of groundwater resources can be improved by using groundwater models to perform risk analyses and to improve development strategies, but a lack of extensive basic data often limits the implementation of sophisticated models. Dar es Salaam in Tanzania is an example of a city where increasing groundwater use in a Pleistocene aquifer is causing groundwater-related problems such as saline intrusion along the coastline, lowering of water-table levels, and contamination of pumping wells. The lack of a water-level monitoring network introduces a problem for basic data collection and model calibration and validation. As a replacement, local water-supply wells were used for measuring groundwater depth, and well-top heights were estimated from a regional digital elevation model to recalculate water depths to hydraulic heads. These were used to draw a regional piezometric map. Hydraulic parameters were estimated from short-time pumping tests in the local wells, but variation in hydraulic conductivity was attributed to uncertainty in well characteristics (information often unavailable) and not to aquifer heterogeneity. A MODFLOW model was calibrated with a homogeneous hydraulic conductivity field and a sensitivity analysis between the conductivity and aquifer recharge showed that average annual recharge will likely be in the range 80–100 mm/year.     

Development of unconfined conditions in multi-aquifer flow systems: a case study in the Rajshahi Barind,Bangladesh

Identifying flow processes in multi-aquifer flow systems is a considerable challenge, especially if substantial abstraction occurs. The Rajshahi Barind groundwater flow system in Bangladesh provides an example of the manner in which flow processes can change with time. At some locations there has been a decrease with time in groundwater heads and also in the magnitude of the seasonal fluctuations. This report describes the important stages in a detailed field and modelling study at a specific location in this groundwater flow system. To understand more about the changing conditions, piezometers were constructed in 2015 at different depths but the same location; water levels in these piezometers indicate the formation of an additional water table. Conceptual models are described which show how conditions have changed between the years 2000 and 2015. Following the formation of the additional water table, the aquifer system is conceptualised as two units. A pumping test is described with data collected during both the pumping and recovery phases. Pumping test data for the Lower Unit are analysed using a computational model with estimates of the aquifer parameters; the model also provided estimates of the quantity of water moving from the ground surface, through the Upper Unit, to provide an input to the Lower Unit. The reasons for the substantial changes in the groundwater heads are identified; monitoring of the recently formed additional water table provides a means of testing whether over-abstraction is occurring.     

Sustainability of groundwater in Mali,West Africa

The following paper describes the goals and some preliminary work in the Bani sustainability study, an ongoing project in Mali, West Africa. Rural communities in Mali are increasingly relying on hand-pumps, which tap groundwater resources, as a means of obtaining potable water. The long-term sustainable yield of groundwater resources is not known but can be evaluated in sustainability study. In 2005, a groundwater sustainability study was established along the Bani River of Mali. The Bani study collected groundwater levels that were used in a conceptual groundwater flow model—the Bani model—to develop an understanding of current aquifer conditions and to make limited predictions of sustainability under various future scenarios. The Bani model showed the climatic parameters of recharge (derived from precipitation) and evapotranspiration to influence simulated groundwater levels and groundwater volume available, while increased pumping rates, due to population growth, showed little effect. When considered in the context of the actual Bani sustainability study area, the change in groundwater levels resulting from climatic parameters may have negative implications, especially during several consecutive years of decreased precipitation, such as drought, or if downward trends anticipated for precipitation continue.     

Maximizing the management of groundwater resources in the Paris–Abu Bayan reclaimed area,Western Desert,Egypt

The Paris–Abu Bayan area located along the Darb El Arbaein road is involved in the New Valley Project in the Egyptian Western Desert (EWD) as part of ongoing efforts since the 1960s. In this dryland area, groundwater stored in the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System (NSAS) serves as the only water resource for a number of different uses. A major concern is the significant groundwater withdrawals from 74 pumped wells since the beginning of agricultural activities in 2000. The recent rapid expansion of agricultural activity and the lack of sufficient groundwater recharge as a result of unplanned groundwater development have led to severe stress on the aquifer. Field measurements have shown a rapid decline in groundwater levels, creating a crisis situation for this sole source of water in the area. In this study, mathematical modeling of the groundwater system (single aquifer layer) of the Paris–Abu Bayan reclaimed area was implemented using MODFLOW to devise a new strategy for the sustainable use of groundwater, by applying a number of scenarios in a finite-difference program. The conceptual model and calibration were developed by generating and studying the hydrogeological records, NSA parameters, production wells, and water level measurements for 2005 and 2012. Three management scenarios were applied on the calibrated model to display the present and future stresses on this aquifer over a 30-year period (2012–2042). The results clearly show a high decline in the heads of the NSA, by about 13.8 m, due to the continuous withdrawal of water (first scenario: present conditions, 102,473 m³/day). In the second scenario, the water level is expected to decrease significantly, by about 16 m, in most of the reclamation area by increasing the pumping rates by about 25% (over-pumping) to meet the continuous need for more cultivation land in the area. To reduce the large decline in water levels, the third plan tests the aquifer after reducing the water withdrawal by approximately 25%, applying modern irrigation systems, and suggesting two new reclaimed areas in the northeastern and northwestern parts (areas 1 and 2), with 20 new wells, at 500 m³/day/well. The results in this case show that groundwater levels are slightly decreased, by about 9.5 m, while many wells (especially the new wells in the northern part) show a slight decrease in groundwater levels (0.8 m). The results comparison shows that the groundwater level in the modeled area is lowered by 0.3 m/year with an increase in the number of wells to 94 and increased cultivation area by about 18% (third scenario), versus 0.45 m/year and 0.60 m/year recorded for the first and second scenarios, respectively. Therefore, based on the results, the third scenario is recommended as a new strategy for improving groundwater resource sustainability in the region.     

Groundwater simulation studies of parts of Western Yamuna Canal Command area, Haryana for planning sustainable development

A single layer mathematical model was developed to simulate the hydrogeological condition and groundwater flow in an area of about 2536 Sq km, which forms part of the WYC Command area. The model was run both for the steady state and for the transient state. The model was then successfully calibrated. The calibration results were recorded qualitatively and quantitatively. The results of the calibrated model were analyzed. Two Scenarios developed alonwith six scenarios created earlier, in another modeling study, were analyzed to find out a sustainable solution for optimal utilization of surface and ground water. The two Scenarios developed show that a viable solution will be reduction in pumping and regulated surface water supply. This will ameliorate water logging in the nearby areas. The reduction in pumping and thereby, reduction of return flow recharging groundwater can be achieved by improving water use efficiency and modifying/changing cropping pattern. These strategies can be successfully implemented, through mass awareness programmes, involving the farmers, who have to implement the programme, along with all the other stake holders. Ultimately reduction of groundwater pumping can be achieved through strict groundwater regulation. Direct recharge by way of seepage through canal can be reduced by lining the unlined canals and proper repair and maintenance of the already lined canals. But this has to be tested through a pilot project vis-a-vis economic viability of this lining, as seepage may be indirectly helping groundwater recharge in areas without water logging. Further to increase the availability of surface water and augment recharge of groundwater, the surface run off from the precipitation, can be utilized in various ways to reduce to decline of groundwater level.     

Evaluation of change in subsurface thermal environment due to groundwater flow in the Tokyo Lowland,Japan

Information on the distribution of subsurface temperature and hydraulic heads at 24 observation wells in and around the Tokyo Lowland, the eastern part of the Tokyo Metropolitan area, were examined to make clear the relationship between groundwater and the subsurface thermal environment in the urban area. Minimums in temperature–depth logs due to subsurface temperature increasing at shallow parts were recognized in 21 wells. This fact shows subsurface temperature is affected by ground surface warming in almost all of this area. Deeper than minimums, where the effects of surface warming became relatively small, regional variation is observed as follows: high temperatures are shown in the central part to the southern part, and low temperatures shown in the inland to eastern part. The high temperature area corresponds to an area where the lower boundary of groundwater flow is relatively shallow. This area corresponds also to an area with severe land subsidence resulting from excessive groundwater pumping. It is considered that this high temperature area is formed by the effects of upward groundwater flow affected by hydrogeological conditions and pumping. On the other hand, a comparison between past data (1956–1967) and present data (2001–2003) revealed widespread decreasing temperature in the inland area. This is explained by downward groundwater flow based on an analysis of temperature–depth logs. This fact suggests that subsurface temperature is not only increasing from the effects of surface warming but also decreasing from the effects of groundwater environment change due to pumping.     

Evaluation and numerical modeling of seawater intrusion in the Gaza aquifer (Palestine)

A numerical assessment of seawater intrusion in Gaza, Palestine, has been achieved applying a 3-D variable density groundwater flow model. A two-stage finite difference simulation algorithm was used in steady state and transient models. SEAWAT computer code was used for simulating the spatial and temporal evolution of hydraulic heads and solute concentrations of groundwater. A regular finite difference grid with a 400 m² cell in the horizontal plane, in addition to a 12-layer model were chosen. The model has been calibrated under steady state and transient conditions. Simulation results indicate that the proposed schemes successfully simulate the intrusion mechanism. Two pumpage schemes were designed to use the calibrated model for prediction of future changes in water levels and solute concentrations in the groundwater for a planning period of 17 years. The results show that seawater intrusion would worsen in the aquifer if the current rates of groundwater pumpage continue. The alternative, to eliminate pumpage in the intruded area, to moderate pumpage rates from water supply wells far from the seashore and to increase the aquifer replenishment by encouraging the implementation of suitable solutions like artificial recharge, may limit significantly seawater intrusion and reduce the current rate of decline of the water levels.     

Groundwater resources management under environmental constraints in Shiroishi of Saga plain, Japan

A sinking of the land surface due to the pumping of groundwater has long been recognized as an environmental issue in the Shiroishi plain of Saga, Japan. Land subsidence can have several negative economic and social implications such as changes in groundwater and surface water flow patterns, restrictions on pumping in land subsidence prone areas, localized flooding, failure of well casings as well as shearing of structures. To minimize such an environmental effect, groundwater management should be considered in this area. In this study, a new integrated numerical model that integrates a three-dimensional numerical groundwater flow model coupled with a one-dimensional soil consolidation model and a groundwater optimization model was developed to simulate groundwater movement, to predict ground settlement and to search for optimal safe yield of groundwater without violating physical, environmental and socio-economic constraints. It is found that groundwater levels in the aquifers greatly vary from season to season in response to the varying climatic and pumping conditions. Consequently, land subsidence has occurred rapidly throughout the area with the Shiroishi plain being the most prone. The predicted optimal safe yield of the pumping amount is about 5 million m³. The study also suggests that pumping with this optimal amount will minimize the rate of land subsidence over the entire area. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Groundwater deterioration in Nankou—a suburban area of Beijing: data assessment and remediation scenarios

Since the 1980s, high-nitrate concentration in one of the groundwater sampling wells at the Nankou site, northwest of the Beijing Plain, has become a major concern for the local water authority. In a previous study (Sun et?al. in Environ Earth Sci 64(5):1323?C1333, 2011), a hydrogeological structural model was developed based on the borehole logs of this area and the steady, as well as transient groundwater-flow models, were calibrated using the measured hydraulic heads. In this paper, the potential pollution sources in this area are investigated. The chemical analysis of the groundwater is also presented. The results demonstrate that the most likely pollution source is the untreated wastewater discharge from a nearby fertilizer factory. Furthermore, a mass transport model is developed to reproduce the nitrate transport process in the aquifer at the Nankou site under different pollution sources, i.e., a fertilizer factory, river with wastewater and an agriculture field. The combined effects of the river and agriculture fields present a better understanding of the nitrate transport in the local aquifer. In addition, a pumping scenario is designed to clean up the current nitrate concentration. The pumping rate and the well location are first estimated with 2-D analytical solutions of the type curves method. Then a 3-D numerical model is used to calculate the nitrate-concentration changes after the pumping activities start. In the downstream direction of the regional groundwater flow, three pumping wells are set up for the clean-up strategy. The calculated pumping rate in each well is about 1,500 m³/day. After 1?year, the nitrate concentration in the observation well recedes to 68?mg/l from the initial value of 72.9?mg/l, and it will be lower than the limitation value (20?mg/l) after 5,400 days of groundwater extraction. The data assessment and clean-up scenarios reported in this paper are fundamental for the contaminated aquifer management in the future.     

Use of stream response functions to determine impacts of replacing surface-water use with groundwater withdrawals

A regional-scale numerical groundwater model is used to study the impacts of replacing surface-water use with groundwater wells to improve low-flow stream conditions for endangered species within the Bertrand and Fishtrap watersheds, southern British Columbia, Canada and Washington, USA. Stream response functions ranging from 0 to 1.0 were calculated for individual wells placed within a steady-state groundwater flow model at varying distances from the streams to determine the impact that these replacement wells, operating under sustained pumping rates, would have on summer instream flows. Lower response ratios indicate groundwater pumping will have less of an impact on streamflow than taking an equivalent amount of water directly from a surface-water source. Results show that replacing surface-water use with groundwater withdrawals may be a viable alternative for increasing summer streamflows. Assuming combined response factors should be ≤0.5 for irrigators to undergo the expense of installing new wells, ~57% of the land area within 0.8 km of Bertrand Creek would be suitable for replacement wells. Similarly, 70% of the land area within 0.8 km of Fishtrap Creek was found to be appropriate. A visual analysis tool was developed using STELLA to allow stakeholders to quickly evaluate the impact associated with moving their water right.