川滇地区地震时的月日赤纬及黄经差特征比较

在进行潮汐应力对发震断层作用研究的基础上，对云南、四川两区域受到潮汐应力触发作用的强震和中强震发震时的月日赤纬及黄经差进行了计算，得到了其分布图象。结果表明：云南、四川两不同构造区域上受到潮汐触发作用地震时的月日赤纬和黄经差分布图象是不同的，受到潮汐应力触发作用的强震和中强震的地震频次随月日黄经差的分布特征有明显差别，这些图象初步揭示了这两个区域的地震最易受到潮汐触发的日、月位置。     

Conditional Probability Approach of the Assessment of Tsunami Potential: Application in Three Tsunamigenic Regions of the Pacific Ocean

We develop stochastic approaches to determine the potential for tsunami generation from earthquakes by combining two interrelated time series, one for the earthquake events, and another for the tsunami events. Conditional probabilities for the occurrence of tsunamis as a function of time are calculated by assuming that the inter-arrival times of the past events are lognormally distributed and by taking into account the time of occurrence of the last event in the time series. An alternative approach is based on the total probabilitiy theorem. Then, the probability for the tsunami occurrence equals the product of the ratio, r (= tsunami generating earthquakes/total number of earthquakes) by the conditional probability for the occurrence of the next earthquake in the zone. The probabilities obtained by the total probability theorem are bounded upwards by the ratio r and, therefore, they are not comparable with the conditional probabilities. The two methods were successfully tested in three characteristic seismic zones of the Pacific Ocean: South America, Kuril-Kamchatka and Japan. For time intervals of about 20 years and over the probabilities exceed 0.50 in the three zones. It has been found that the results depend on the approach applied. In fact, the conditional probabilities of tsunami occurrence in Japan are slightly higher than in the South America region and in Kuril-Kamchatka they are clearly lower than in South America. Probabilities calculated by the total probability theorem are systematically higher in South America than in Japan while in Kuril-Kamchatka they are significantly lower than in Japan. The stochastic techniques tested in this paper are promising for the tsunami potential assessment in other tsunamigenic regions of the world.     

多种岩石的Qp,Qs,Qc

本采用脉冲传播谱振幅比法、能量法、尾波法分别测多种岩样的Ｐ波Ｑ值、Ｓ波Ｑ值及尾波Ｑ值。结果表明，能量法所得Ｑｐ、Ｑｓ较小。谱振幅比法所得Ｑｐ一般居中，Ｑｓ较大。尾波Ｑｃ有的偏大，有的偏小。     

Attenuation relations for horizontal peak ground acceleration and response spectrum in northeastern Tibetan Plateau region

Introduction Developing local attenuation relations of ground motion is one of the key steps in seismic hazard assessment. Because of inadequate strong ground motion records in China, the attenuation relations used in China are usually developed by using the transforming method (Hu, Zhang, 1983; HU, ZHANG, 1984). To use this method, we need to have both the attenuation relation of seismic intensity for the studied region and the attenuation relations of seismic intensity and ground mo-tion…     

结构主动控制系统时间滞后测量与补偿方法

本文研究了结构主动控制系统时间滞后产生的原因,利用作者建立的结构主动控制系统进行了系统时间滞后测量方法的研究,测量得到了该系统时间滞后的具体数值,在此基础上,研究了时间滞后对控制系统的影响,提出了结构主动控制系统时间滞后的三种补偿,即移相法,泰勒级数展开法和预估状态向量法,通过主动控制试验证了时间滞后补偿方法的有效性。     

地壳形变与地震预报问题

在对形变科研成果研究的基础上分析了地形变监测方法用于地震预报研究的现状和进展，对其效能作了肯定性评价。总结了这一研究领域２０余年的得失和教训，并结合当前的体制和管理现状，改革开放对地震科研的新要求，提出了一系列改善本学科生存环境，增强其效益的建议。从自然科学和社会科学的不同视角，对本学科面临的阻力和困境进行了估计，最后展望了地壳形变在地震预报中的应用前景。     

3D AND 2½ D MODELLING OF GRAVITY ANOMALIES WITH VARIABLE DENSITY CONTRAST1

The decrease of density contrast in sedimentary basins may be approximated by a quadratic function. A sedimentary basin may be viewed as a number of prisms placed in juxtaposition. Equations in closed form for the gravity anomalies of 3D and 2½ D prismatic models are derived. Approximate equations for these models are also derived for rapid calculations. Efficient methods are developed for anomaly calculation by an appropriate use of the exact and approximate equations, and hence, for 3D and 2½ D modelling. The depths to the basement are adjusted iteratively by comparing the calculated anomalies with the observed anomalies. These methods are applied for analysis of the residual anomaly map of the Los Angeles Basin, California.     

Analysis of extreme rainfall using the log logistic distribution

Computer-intensive methods are used to examine the fit of the log logistic distribution to annual maxima of Irish rainfall. The characteristics of the L-moment solutions are examined by using the conventional bootstrap on the data and by random sampling within the ellipse of concentration of the parameter estimates. A statistical method of examining uncertainty is provided by the maximum product of spacings solution. Factors derived from random division of an interval are proposed for estimation of short-duration falls for which no data are available.     

立式储罐动力反应谱分析

采用有限元方法对工程上常用的储罐进行了有限元分析。给出了相应的建模方法和有限元分析方法,结果与理论计算值进行了比较,证明该模型和采用的求解方法是可靠的。在此基础上进行了模态响应分析及动力反应谱分析,得出了储罐内力及变形值,与规范计算结果进行了比较。为今后储罐的工程设计提供了可靠的参考依据。     

LL-moments for estimating low flow quantiles / Estimation des quantiles d'étiage grâce aux LL-moments

Abstract

A parameter estimation method is proposed for fitting probability distribution functions to low flow observations. LL-moments are variants of L-moments that are analogous to LH-moments, which were defined for the analysis of floods. LL-moments give higher weights to the small observations. Expressions are given that relate them to the probability distribution function for the case of normal, Weibull and power distributions. Sampling properties of the LL-moments and of the distribution parameters and quantiles estimated by them are found by a Monte Carlo simulation study. It is shown on an example that the low flow quantile estimates obtained by LL-moments may be significantly different from those obtained by L-moments.     

常规土类动剪切模量比和阻尼比试验研究

采用共振柱自振试验方法给出国内常规土类动剪切模量比G／Gmax和阻尼比λ变化的平均曲线,推荐值和包线,使用的共振仪是由工种力学研究所原有共振柱改装而成,并经试验验证了改装后仪器的精度可靠性,试验土类包括粘土,粉质土,粉土,砂土,淤泥和淤泥质土,土样来自国内十余个不同地区,采用折线双曲线拟合G／Gmax,λ随γ衰减关系,其中参数a和b由最小二乘法对每次试验结果回归分析得到,对同类土,将所有的a,b 值平均,用均值a和b给出动剪切模量比和阻尼比与剪应变关系,从而得到了此类土G/Gmax,λ随γ变化曲线及推荐值,试验是在两种固结压力下进行,因而得到的结构分别适用于土体埋深小于10m和埋深10m-20m之间的两种情况。     

洞庭湖沉积物腐殖酸的配位性与酸碱性研究

通过电位滴定研究了从洞庭湖沉积物中分离得到的腐殖酸（HA）的酸碱性和配位性,采用修正格兰函数进行了数据拟合。表征了六类可滴官能团含量和分布,pKa数值在2．35～10．50之间,羧基占可电离中心总数的62％,利用铜离子选择电极和汞齐电极（Pb、Cd和Zn）研究了腐殖酸与Cu^2＋、Pb^2＋、Cd^2＋和Zn^2＋配位性质,借助Scatchard方法对数据进行了处理,显示铜和铅为二配体,镉和锌为单配体。平均稳定常数顺序为：logKHA-Pb〉logKHA-Cd〉logKHAtZn,配位能力顺序为：Pb〉Cu〉Cd≈Zn。     

Attenuation of Peak Horizontal and Vertical Acceleration in the Dinarides Area

Peak acceleration attenuation relations for horizontal and vertical components are presented for the Dinarides region, based on 145 3-component accelerograms related to 46 earthquakes with local magnitudes of 4.5 or greater and with epicentral distances of less than 200 km as recorded on 39 recording sites in the greater Dinarides region. The attenuation functions were obtained by two-stage stratified regression on the local magnitude and epicentral distance as independent variables. The predicted peak acceleration values within the distance range covered by the data are comparable to the ones obtained for stiff-soil or rock sites when selected reference relations are used. The rather large average residuals are caused mostly by the lack of information on local site conditions and by the use of epicentral distance instead of fault distance.     

Constant‐ductility response spectra for sequential earthquake and tsunami loading

Simplified approaches for examining structural system response under sequential earthquake and tsunami loading are helpful for understanding response trends. To aid understanding, nonlinear (constant‐ductility) response spectra are developed for elastoplastic single degree of freedom systems subjected to seismic loads followed by hydrodynamic tsunami loads. The forcing function is composed of long‐duration earthquake motion concatenated with a range of tsunami hydrodynamic forces that are proportional to the pseudo‐spectral acceleration produced by the earthquake motion. The constant‐ductility spectra are thus constructed for scenarios where the loading imposed by one hazard is not dominant over the other. The spectra and basic intensity measures indicate that the amplification of response for sequential earthquake and tsunami loading over the earthquake only case is most significant for systems with long natural periods and high‐ductility capacity under seismic loading. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

安徽强震动台站场地响应研究

采用H/V谱比法,利用安徽强震台网记录的波形数据,计算了3个强震台的场地响应。结果表明,当台站场地为基岩或覆盖层较薄时,由地脉动和S波数据分别计算出的谱比曲线一致性很好。当覆盖层大于30.5 m的时候,两者的放大因子有差异,即用S波计算的场地放大响应要明显大于用脉动计算的场地响应。     

垂向裂隙各向异性煤层地震波响应

煤层中存在的裂隙会导致介质表现为各向异性,本文以HTI型煤层为例,结合各向异性介质弹性矩阵和各向异性裂隙理论,推导出不同充填物的垂直裂隙中各向异性参数表达式,将其应用于地震波响应分析;通过改进的交错网格差分法和各向异性Christoffel方程波场分解法,得到地震波合成记录和分解后的P波和SV波记录;将Thomsen群速度与相速度公式,经过坐标轴旋转变换,得到HTI型煤层中不同各向异性参数的地震波速度响应表达式;建立不同类型煤层地质模型,分析了裂隙密度、裂隙充填物以及煤层厚度等参数变化时的地震波响应特征.研究结果为分析垂向裂隙各向异性薄煤层地震波传播规律提供工具,为选用相应地震数据进行地震波各向异性参数反演提供依据.     

STOCHASTIC INVERSION BY RAY CONTINUATION: APPLICATION TO SEISMIC TOMOGRAPHY1

The conventional tomographic inversion consists in minimizing residuals between measured and modelled traveltimes. The process tends to be unstable and some additional constraints are required to stabilize it. The stochastic formulation generalizes the technique and sets it on firmer theoretical bases. The Stochastic Inversion by Ray Continuation (Sirc ) is a probabilistic approach, which takes a priori geological information into account and uses probability distributions to characterize data correlations and errors. It makes it possible to tie uncertainties to the results. The estimated parameters are interval velocities and B -spline coefficients used to represent smoothed interfaces. Ray tracing is done by a continuation technique between source and receivers. The ray coordinates are computed from one path to the next by solving a linear system derived from Fermat's principle. The main advantages are fast computations, accurate traveltimes and derivatives. The seismic traces are gathered in CMPs. For a particular CMP, several reflecting elements are characterized by their time gradient measured on the stacked section, and related to a mean emergence direction. The program capabilities are tested on a synthetic example as well as on a field example. The strategy consists in inverting the parameters for one layer, then for the next one down. An inversion step is divided in two parts. First the parameters for the layer concerned are inverted, while the parameters for the upper layers remain fixed. Then all the parameters are reinverted. The velocity-depth section computed by the program together with the corresponding errors can be used directly for the interpretation, as an initial model for depth migration or for the complete inversion program under development.     

华南和华北陆块显生宙的古地磁及构造演化

本文采用给每个岩石单元的古地磁极以单位权的方法,对目前收集到的、并按一定可靠性判据选择出来的华南和华北陆块的古地磁数据,进行了统计分析,绘制了它们的显生宙视极移曲线。进而根据古地磁结果,分析了两大陆块显生宙的构造演化,着重探讨了它们的碰撞时限和拼合过程。     

对近年来地震危险区预测效果的评估

采用R值评分方法，对中国地震局地球物理研究所2001—2004年度划定的全国地震危险区进行了评估，2001—2004年度的R值分别为0．265、0．182、0．293、0．404。近两年的R值相对高些，为了排除随机成分，做了相应的随机预报试验检验，并对地震落入危险区的随机概率作了估计。结果表明，4个年度的R值明显高于随机预报，除2002年度外，地震随机落入危险区的概率很低，不到2％。这说明中国地震局地球物理研究所实际地震危险区划分取得了一定的效果，且逐年提高。     

我国农村房屋的地震破坏分析与工程抗震处理对策

根据对我国农村建(构)筑物震害的调查结果,总结了农村房屋的震害特征,分析了建(构)筑物破坏的主要原因及农村房屋建(构)筑物在选址、施工、抗震设防等方面的教训,采用有限元分析比较了基础材料不同时基础部分的抗震差异。提出了提高农村房屋抗震能力的对策和建议。