三峡库区滑坡空间发育规律及其关键影响因子

三峡库区涉水滑坡众多,目前库岸滑坡空间发育规律及其影响因素尚不明确.收集三峡大坝至库尾江津长江两岸593处滑坡相关资料,选取地层岩性、斜坡结构、高程与坡度作为滑坡关键控制因素及库水作用这一诱发因素.沿三峡大坝追溯至库尾,根据不同影响因子把干流库岸进行分段研究,统计滑坡在各影响因子中的分布特征,分析其分布规律及内在机理,可得以下结论:（1）受不同岩组的工程地质性质差异,干流库岸稳定性差异较大,造成滑坡在空间分布上呈显著区域差异性与分带性特征;（2）在同一岩组的左、右两岸或上下游段滑坡发育密度呈明显局部差异性,其主要受斜坡结构影响,顺向坡中发育密度明显高于横向坡与逆向坡;（3）由于地形地貌条件及库水作用影响,滑坡后缘高程与坡度由库首至库尾逐渐降低,而前缘主要集中于100~175 m,滑坡复活变形的最主要诱发因素为库水位升降作用,当水位作用于滑坡中前部时影响效果最明显,影响时效随着滑坡逐年变形应力调整后逐渐减弱.研究结果为三峡库区滑坡防治提供了一定依据.      

黄土高原区地形与植被分布规律对滑坡发生概率的影响

黄土高原区自然斜坡的地形与植被条件对滑坡的发生有一定的促进和抑制作用。通过将研究区划分为31 418个自然斜坡单元,利用ArcGIS区域统计功能提取斜坡单元的地形和植被参数,分析研究区斜坡的坡体形态和植被空间分布规律。依据区内292处滑坡调查点的资料,统计分析不同坡体形态下的滑坡发生概率。分析结果表明,研究区正向类的凸型和直线型斜坡发生滑坡的概率明显高于负向类的凹型和阶梯型边坡;随着斜坡坡度和坡高增大,发生滑坡的概率增大;阳坡发生滑坡的概率明显高于其他坡向的边坡;随着NDVI增大,滑坡发生概率显著降低。     

兰州老狼沟黄土微地貌灾害链时空分布特征与危险性模拟研究

黄土洞穴和滑坡是黄土高原独特侵蚀作用下的微地貌景观,反映了地貌快速演化链式过程,具有分布广、发育密度高等特点,严重威胁了我国西北地区人居安全。本研究以老狼沟小流域为研究对象,利用现场调查、GIS空间分析、无人机测绘以及数值模拟等手段开展了黄土微地貌灾害链时空分布特征和危险性模拟研究。结果表明,老狼沟研究区内发育黄土洞穴、滑坡、浅沟的数量分别为134个、38个和81个,黄土洞穴密度约为159个/km2,占研究区总面积的1.88%。黄土洞穴多位于TWI高值的凹地形区域,呈线状展布排列,与浅沟发育密切。研究区2001~2021年五期核密度估计结果显示高密度中心均位于西侧斜坡,面积约为5.91×104 m2,长轴、短轴、面积、高程、周长的空间集聚程度更高。黄土微地貌灾害链演化模式可以总结为原生地貌阶段、早期侵蚀阶段、加速侵蚀阶段、侵蚀贯通阶段、局部破坏阶段。洞穴环境加剧了水分入渗程度,更易引发滑坡发生。模拟结果显示潜在滑坡运动能够对阶地建筑物造成严重破坏,受灾面积约为2.02×104 m2,滑坡运动过程为150 s,平均堆积厚度约为9.2 m,最大运动距离约为651 m。本研究是揭示黄土洞穴发育规律及其灾害链效应的有益探索和尝试,为黄土高原城镇防灾减灾提供参考。     

南海南沙海槽大型海底滑坡的发育特征及成因机制

大型海底滑坡的研究对认识海底斜坡的稳定性具有重要意义.利用最新的高精度多波束数据和重处理的二维地震资料,识别了南海南沙海槽一处大型海底滑坡,描述了其发育特征,探讨了其可能的形成原因.该滑坡体覆盖面积达6 300 km2,横向最宽50 km,延伸最远140 km.上部源头区外形呈半环形,滑坡后壁的高度落差200~350 m,平均坡度0.7°,发育基底剪切面和掀斜断块.中部滑移区呈拱形,分布于1 600~2 400 m水深段,平均坡度1°~3°,发育基底侵蚀面和大量残余块体.下部堆积区呈扇形,分布于2 400~2 800 m水深段,平均坡度0.1°~1.0°,发育大型碎屑流朵体和逃逸块体.研究表明不断隆升的背斜脊对高供给率沉积物的阻挡是海底斜坡失稳的内在条件,而高通量流体的聚集以及天然气水合物的分解使其变得更加不稳定.      

黄土斜坡内部水分二维成像研究——以黑方台罗家坡滑坡为例

黄土高原地区受构造活动及河流侵蚀形成的大量黄土斜坡, 在降雨及农业灌溉等条件影响下, 每年会有大量黄土滑坡发生, 因此, 准确揭示黄土斜坡内部水分空间分布规律及运移特征对于理解黄土滑坡机理和预警预报极其重要。本文利用电阻率层析成像技术(ERT)及模型模拟的方法对斜坡内部电阻率与含水量关系进行量化, 并结合surfer软件进行斜坡内部水分二维成像。黄土电阻率与地层物理化学参数相关性分析表明:黄土斜坡中地层含水率是地层电阻率发生变化的主导因素;基于Archie公式的模型拟合结果能更准确地量化电阻率与含水量特征关系;地层水分二维成像结果可以直观地显示斜坡内部水分时空演化。本研究定量化且更直观地对黄土斜坡内部的水分分布特征进行描述, 可为黄土滑坡预报预警提供最直接有效的数据资料。     

基于ArcGIS的滑坡空间分布的变维分形研究——以江西省宁都县为例

滑坡空间分布的定量研究对了解滑坡的发育特征具有实际意义,能够为滑坡的防治提供重要依据.为了了解滑坡的空间分布特征,以江西省宁都县1：5万地质灾害调查数据为基础,基于ArcGIS空间分析叠加模块,对滑坡空间分布规律应用变维分形理论进行定量研究,揭示出滑坡空间分布与地形地貌、岩土体类型、高程、坡度均呈二价累计和分形分布,使得滑坡与各因素之间的关系从定性分析上升到定量研究,并计算出分维值,说明了分维值的意义.     

基于降雨响应的黄土丘陵区滑坡危险性预测研究——以宝鸡市麟游县为例

极端降雨易造成群发滑坡灾害,难以作为单体预测.为预测评估黄土丘陵区不同降雨强度诱发滑坡灾害危险性,论文在区域滑坡灾害特征研究的基础上,分析降雨强度特征及滑坡分布特征.以岭南滑坡为代表分析降雨诱发黄土-丘陵区滑坡的形成机制,介绍了无限斜坡模型原理、参数选取,利用GIS空间建模与分析功能,定量完成了无降雨、25 mm、50...     

基于ArcGIS的滑坡空间分布的变维分形研究——以江西省宁都县为例

滑坡空间分布的定量研究对了解滑坡的发育特征具有实际意义，能够为滑坡的防治提供重要依据.为了了解滑坡的空间分布特征，以江西省宁都县1：5万地质灾害调查数据为基础，基于ArcGIS空间分析叠加模块，对滑坡空间分布规律应用变维分形理论进行定量研究，揭示出滑坡空间分布与地形地貌、岩土体类型、高程、坡度均呈二价累计和分形分布，使得滑坡与各因素之间的关系从定性分析上升到定量研究，并计算出分维值，说明了分维值的意义.     

基于深部位移监测的浙江省中林村滑坡变形特征分析

位移监测是获取滑坡范围、滑面位置、滑坡方向等变形特征最直接和最有成效的一种手段,可以为滑坡防治提供较为精准的数据。采取测斜仪和FBG光纤等2种深部位移监测方法,对浙江省中林村滑坡的变形特征与稳定性发展趋势进行了较系统研究分析。监测结果表明:中林村滑坡可分为上部、中下部2个部分,它们均处于蠕滑状态,变形呈缓慢增长趋势。2部分岩土体滑向、滑面埋深、滑动方式等差异明显,斜坡上部具有牵引式滑动特征,活动性不明显,受高陡临空面影响;斜坡中下部具有推移式滑坡特征,活动特征较明显,降雨为主要的诱发因素。     

鲜水河断裂带炉霍段地震滑坡空间分布规律分析

鲜水河断裂带炉霍段具有极强的活动性,一旦发生地震,极有可能引发大量的滑坡等地质灾害。研究区发育1973年地震滑坡179个（通过现场调查识别出43个）,1973年以前地震滑坡62个。本文研究数据基于1973年179个及1973年以前62个地震滑坡,共计241个地震滑坡。利用统计分析方法研究了1973年179个地震滑坡分布与烈度及震中距的关系,分析了241个地震滑坡发育的滑动方向、地层岩性、地形坡度、相对高程及在断裂不同位置的分布特征。结果显示:（1）炉霍断裂地震滑坡规模以小型为主;（2）集中于Ⅸ～Ⅹ度烈度区内;（3）距震中0～5km及10～15km范围内密度最大;（4）滑动方向多与断裂斜交,交角介于35～75;（5）断裂南东段滑坡数量多于北西段,北东盘多于南西盘,北西段的北东盘滑坡个体面积较大;（6）滑坡多发育于T2-3r地层中;（7）主要分布于斜坡的中下部,相对高程主要介于30～60m;（8）发育坡度多介于30～45,具有规模越大,坡度越小的特点。     

2008年汶川地震滑坡详细编目及其空间分布规律分析

最新研究成果表明, 2008年5月12日汶川MS 8.0级地震触发了超过197000处滑坡。首先,基于GIS与遥感技术构建了汶川地震滑坡的3类编目图,分别为单体滑坡面分布数据、滑坡中心点位置和滑坡后壁点位置。构建方法为基于地震前后高分辨率遥感影像的目视解译方法,区分单体滑坡并圈定其边界,对滑坡后壁进行识别与定点,并开展了部分滑坡的野外验证工作。这些滑坡分布在一个面积大约为110000km2的区域内,滑坡总面积约为1160km2。选择一个面积约为44031km2的区域作为研究区,区内滑坡数量为196007个,滑坡面积为1150.622km2,这是最详细完整的汶川地震滑坡编录成果,也是单次地震事件触发滑坡最多的记录。其次,开展研究区内的地震滑坡空间分布规律的研究。基于滑坡面与滑坡中心点分别构建滑坡空间分布面积密度图与点密度图,结果表明:滑坡多沿着映秀北川断裂分布,多发生在断裂的上盘。滑坡的高密度区位于映秀北川同震地表破裂的南西段(映秀镇与北川县之间)的上盘区域,这一区域恰对应着逆冲分量为主的断裂上盘,表明逆冲断裂对上盘区域发生滑坡的极强烈的控制作用,而该区域正是形变最大的区域,因此说明是地震滑坡发生的强烈控制作用。基于滑坡面密度(LAP)、滑坡中心点密度(LCND)与滑坡后壁点密度(LTND)这3个衡量指标,使用统计分析方法,评价了汶川地震滑坡与地震参数、地质参数、地形参数的关系。结果表明:LAP、LCND与LTND这3个衡量指标与坡度、地震烈度与PGA存在明显的正相关关系; 与距离震中、距离映秀北川同震地表破裂存在负相关关系; 斜坡曲率越接近0,滑坡越不易发生; LAP、LCND与LTND的高值高程区间为1200～3000m; 滑坡发生的优势坡向为E、SE、S方向; 滑坡发育的易发岩性为砂岩与粉砂岩(Z)、花岗岩; 滑坡与坡位的相关关系不太明显。统计结果还表明LCND与LTND两个衡量指标的差异对地震与地质因子不敏感,而对地形因子较敏感。最后将本文的统计结果与以往的汶川地震滑坡空间分布规律统计成果进行了一些对比,对比结果表明,对于某些因子,如高程、岩性、距离震中、距离映秀北川断裂的统计分析结果,采用不完整的滑坡分布数据或点数据,与采用较完整的滑坡分布面数据会有一定的差异,这种差异并未出现在针对坡度与坡向等因子的统计对比结果中。总之,作者认为一个完备、详细的地震滑坡分布面要素编目图是地震滑坡空间分布规律定量分析、危险性定量分析与滑坡控制的地震区地貌演化研究的重要基础,否则,与实际情况相比,得到统计结果会有一定的偏差,本文的研究成果与以往成果的对比结果证明了这一点。     

Regional mapping and characterisation of old landslides in hilly regions using LiDAR-based imagery in Southern Flanders

Analysis of LiDAR-derived imagery led to the discovery of more than 330 pre-Holocene to recent landslides in Southern Flanders (4850 km²). The morphology of three landslides, including the 266.5 ha deep-seated gravitational slope deformation in Alden Biesen, was investigated in more detail. The analysis of the morphological and topographical characteristics (width–length relation, frequency–area distribution and topographical threshold) of the landslides revealed important differences compared to the characteristics reported in other landslide studies, and helped understanding possible landslide triggering mechanisms. Especially the possibility of a seismic origin of the landslides was investigated. Finally, a heuristic model for region-wide landslide susceptibility mapping was successfully tested. The susceptibility model and map allow prediction of future landslide locations and contribute to better understanding the role of individual causal factors on landslide location and spatial density. The results suggest that landslides on low-gradient, soil-mantled hills are a more important contributor to landscape evolution of hilly areas than was hitherto thought. The morphology of all hilly regions of Flanders is clearly marked by landslide processes and higher landslide densities often coincide with the presence of quaternary active faults. This study further shows that high-resolution topographical data such as LiDAR significantly contributes to a better detection of old, previously unknown landslides.     

降雨引发的兰州黄土滑坡时空规律分析和临界降雨量预测

开展降雨型黄土滑坡预警对于区域性防治滑坡具有重要意义。本研究在收集1985~2015年兰州市降雨型黄土滑坡历史数据的基础上,运用反距离权重插值(IDW)和核密度估算(KDE)方法揭示了降雨引发黄土滑坡的时空分布规律。该文基于统计学的基本原理,运用相关性和偏相关性等方法建立适合兰州市的有效降雨量模型。通过拟合有效降雨量与滑坡因子的线性回归关系,确定引发黄土滑坡的临界降雨量阈值,设定兰州市黄土滑坡的降雨量危险性预警等级。研究表明:(1)兰州市黄土滑坡灾害点沿着黄河及其支流沿岸分布,城关区滑坡点最多且呈环形分布,西固区次之,其他地区分布较少;(2)降雨是兰州市及其周边地区黄土滑坡的关键诱因,10d有效降雨量与滑坡因子均呈现显著正相关特性,其相关系数达到0.698;(3)依据10mm、20mm和40mm临界降雨量阈值将预警等级划分为低、中、高3个危险性等级。     

Topographical features of rainfall-triggered landslides in Mon State,Myanmar, August 2019: spatial distribution heterogeneity and uncommon large relative heights

Continuous 5-day (August 4–9, 2019) torrential rainfall in the monsoon season triggered more than 90 landslides on northwest-southeast extended mountain range of Mon State, Myanmar. In this study, remote sensing images, DEM, and limited fieldworks were used to create the landslide inventory. The topography features of these landslides are analyzed via ArcGIS. The largest one occurred on 9 August 2019 and caused 75 deaths and 27 buildings were damaged. This landslide occurred on gentle topography (slope angle, 23°) with long run-out, in which the angle of reach was relatively low (10°). The volume was 111,878 m³ was mainly composed of weathered granite and red soil and the sliding depth was approximately 7.5 m. Topographic characteristics including the relative slope height, angle of reach, and slope angle of source area of 35 landslides with areas?>?4000 m² were analyzed. The spatial distribution characteristics and topographic features of the 35 landslides below are distinguished: (1) the concentration of most of landslides on southwest-facing slopes showing the heterogeneous spatial distribution of landslide; (2) an uncommon landslide distribution in which more than half of landslide originates from upper slope; (3) the range of the angle of the source area (17°–38°) compatible with the internal friction angle of soils in tropical regions (17°–33°); and (4) the tangent of the angle of reach is generally smaller than 0.5 (angle of reach?<?27°) shows a relative high mobility and the relation between landslide mobility and the slope angle of the landslide source area is similar to the one of earthquake-triggered landslides, even though the triggering mechanism, landslide type, and landslide volume are dramatically different.

     

分形分维理论在地质灾害发育及空间分布规律中的应用——以长安区滑坡、崩塌地质灾害为例

长安区区内地层岩性、地质构造多样,加之人类经济工程活动、降雨、地震等诱发影响,秦岭北坡及黄土台塬边缘滑坡崩塌地质灾害发育,是陕西省地质灾害较严重的县(区)之一。本文以长安区为研究区域,在对长安区自然地理及区域地质环境条件等资料充分收集的基础上,结合长安区滑坡崩塌灾害点的实际调查资料,详细分析了长安区的滑坡崩塌灾害发育特征及空间分布规律,并采用网络覆盖法,对长安区滑坡崩塌地质灾害的空间分布进行了分形分维计算。求得地质灾害的空间分布分维值为0.876 6,反应出长安区滑坡崩塌地质灾害空间分布特性的复杂性。研究结果表明,分形分维理论能合理评价地质灾害空间分布特征,对类似地区的地质灾害空间分布特征分析具有借鉴意义。     

Landslides triggered by slipping-fault-generated earthquake on a plateau: an example of the 14 April 2010, Ms 7.1, Yushu, China earthquake

On 14 April 2010 at 07:49 (Beijing time), a catastrophic earthquake with Ms 7.1 struck Yushu County, Qinghai Province, China. A total of 2,036 landslides were interpreted from aerial photographs and satellite images, verified by selected field checking. These landslides cover about a total area of 1.194 km². The characteristics and failure mechanisms of these landslides are presented in this paper. The spatial distribution of the landslides is evidently strongly controlled by the locations of the main co-seismic surface fault ruptures. The landslides commonly occurred close together. Most of the landslides are small; there were only 275 individual landslide (13.5 % of the total number) surface areas larger than 1,000 m². The landslides are of various types. They are mainly shallow, disrupted landslides, but also include rock falls, deep-seated landslides, liquefaction-induced landslides, and compound landslides. Four types of factors are identified as contributing to failure along with the strong ground shaking: natural excavation of the toes of slopes, which mean erosion of the base of the slope, surface water infiltration into slopes, co-seismic fault slipping at landslide sites, and delayed occurrence of landslides due to snow melt or rainfall infiltration at sites where slopes were weakened by the co-seismic ground shaking. To analyze the spatial distribution of the landslides, the landslide area percentage (LAP) and landslide number density (LND) were compared with peak ground acceleration (PGA), distance from co-seismic main surface fault ruptures, elevation, slope gradient, slope aspect, and lithology. The results show landslide occurrence is strongly controlled by proximity to the main surface fault ruptures, with most landslides occurring within 2.5 km of such ruptures. There is no evident correlation between landslide occurrences and PGA. Both LAP and LND have strongly positive correlations with slope gradient, and additionally, sites at elevations between 3,800 and 4,000 m are relatively susceptible to landslide occurrence; as are slopes with northeast, east, and southeast slope aspects. Q₄ al-pl, N, and T₃ kn ¹ have more concentrated landslide activity than others. This paper provides a detailed inventory map of landslides triggered by the 2010 Yushu earthquake for future seismic landslide hazard analysis and also provides a study case of characteristics, failure mechanisms, and spatial distribution of landslides triggered by slipping-fault generated earthquake on a plateau.     

Spatial risk analysis of Li-shan landslide in Taiwan

By coupling limit equilibrium analysis and Monte Carlo analysis with a geography information system (GIS), this study implements a method that can evaluate the risk (corresponding to probability of failure in this study) of landslide with consideration of spatial uncertainties. The GIS can adopt the three-dimensional information including surface topography, underground geomaterial distribution and groundwater level to determine slope profiles for analysis. Then the safety of defined slope can be evaluated by limit equilibrium analysis. In this study, the mechanical properties of geomaterial were considered as random variables instead of single values. The slope and groundwater profiles are also randomly adopted. Through a Monte Carlo sampling process, a distribution of safety factor and probability of failure can be determined. This probabilistic risk analysis approach was applied to Li-shan landslide in Central Taiwan.

Due to heavy rains, the sites near the highway 7A (mileage 73 k + 150) and the highway 8 (mileage 82 k) in the Li-shan Township began to subside in mid April 1990. Topography, geology, and groundwater condition of this area were first reviewed. Based on this review, together with field investigations and a series of limit equilibrium back analyses, a general hypothetic model was established to illustrate the failure mechanism of this landslide area. Then the developed probabilistic risk analysis model is applied to spatially evaluate the risk of this landslide area as well as the performance of the remediation treatment.     

汶川地震触发崩滑地质灾害空间分布及影响因素

通过遥感解译和实地考察,获取了2008年汶川地震触发崩滑的空间分布,利用GIS空间分析和Lo-gistic回归,分析崩滑的空间分布特征及其影响因素,建立了地震触发崩滑与其影响因素之间的回归方程。结果表明,(1)研究区共有5 154个崩滑群,覆盖总面积1 139 km2;(2)崩滑沿北川—映秀发震断层的两侧(断层上盘区占90%),呈北东向宽度不一的条带状分布;(3)Ⅺ和Ⅹ烈度区崩滑面积占区域面积的73.2%,Ⅷ度及以下烈度区崩滑面积比例较小;(4)崩滑发育及空间分布不仅受控于发震断层的活动,断层上下盘效应、地形放大效应等也是其重要影响因素。崩滑与其影响因子的回归方程表明:(1)到北川—映秀发震断层距离因子和到震中距离因子的偏回归系数远大于其他因子的偏回归系数,北川—映秀断层发震活动是控制崩滑空间分布的主导因子;(2)岩性软硬程度对崩滑空间分布的影响不显著;(3)地形坡度、高程、坡度变率、多年累积降雨、人工修路及植被覆盖对崩滑的发育产生影响。地形高程因子对崩滑空间分布的影响大于坡度、坡度变率因子的影响。人工道路、多年降雨及植被覆盖对地震崩滑的影响程度依次降低。     

空间三维滑坡敏感性分区工具及其应用

对于滑坡敏感性分区目前有三种方法:定性法、统计法和基于岩土定量模型的确定性方法。定性法基于对滑坡敏感性或灾害评估的人为判断;统计法用一个来源于结合了权重因子的预测函数或指标;而确定性法,或者说是物理定量模型法以质量、能量和动量守恒定律为基础。二维确定性模型广泛用于土木工程设计,而无限边坡模型(一维)也用于滑坡灾害分区的确定性模型。文中提出了一个新的基于GIS(地理信息系统)的滑坡敏感性分区系统,这个系统可用于从复杂地形中确认可能的危险三维(3-D)滑坡体。所有与滑坡相关的空间数据(矢量或栅格数据)都被集成到这个系统中。通过把研究区域划分为边坡单元并假定初始滑动面是椭球的下半部分,并使用Monte Carlo随机搜索法,三维滑坡稳定性分析中的三维最危险滑面是三维安全系数最小的地方。使用近似方法假定有效凝聚力、有效摩擦角和三维安全系数服从正态分布,可以计算出滑坡失稳概率。3DSlopeGIS是一个计算机程序,它内嵌了GIS Developer kit(ArcObjects of ESRI)来实现GIS空间分析功能和有效的数据管理。应用此工具可以解决所有的三维边坡空间数据解问题。通过使用空间分析、数据管理和GIS的可视化功能来处理复杂的边坡数据,三维边坡稳定性问题很容易用一个友好的可视化图形界面来解决。将3DSlopeGIS系统应用到3个滑坡敏感性分区的实例中:第一个是一个城市规划项目,第二个是预测以往滑坡灾害对临近区域可能的影响,第三个则是沿着国家主干道的滑坡分区。基于足够次数的Monte Carlo模拟法,可以确认可能的最危险滑坡体。这在以往的传统边坡稳定性分析中是不可能的。