东北、华北与台湾地区某些地震区地震趋势分析

运用孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论及相关预测方法,分析了东北、华北与台湾地区某些地震区未来地震趋势,给出了这些地震区未来中强震、强震或大(巨)震的四要素预测结果.分析表明;菏泽—濮阳地震区、晋东北地震区、晋西南地震区、台湾南授地震区与花莲—台东地震区未来有大震或巨震事件发生;海城地震区、通辽地震区、阿荣旗—嫩江地震区、邢台地震区未来有中强震或强震发生;京津唐地震区未来10~20年在北京及其周边地区有发生强震的可能;郯庐断裂山东段地震区未来将发生M_S 5.5级震群事件.本文得出的结论可供有关部门参考,以制定相应的防震减灾措施.此外,本文还给出了计算地震区CBS值时最小地震事件震级的选取方法.     

川滇地区某些地震区未来震情研判

运用孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论与相关预测方法,对川滇地区某些地震区未来震情进行了重新研判和分析,并给出了这些地震区未来中强震或强震的四要素预测结果.结果表明:若1973年炉霍大震不是Ms7.9级,则鲜水河地震区未来有Ms 7.9～8.1级的地震发生;其它地震区,包括小江、西昌、云龙、宜宾-长宁以及自贡-遂宁地震区,未来都将有破坏性地震发生.     

东太平洋、大洋海岭与大陆裂谷地震带大震预测

基于孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论,对北美洲板块划分了3个板内地震区,对加勒比板块划分了6个板间与板内地震区,对斯科舍板块划分了7个板间地震区,对大洋海岭地震带划分了4个板间地震区,对大陆裂谷地震带划分了3个地震区.从孕育周期界定与主震事件判识角度,分析了这些地震区大(巨)震事件孕育过程,研判了其未来震情.结果表明:关塔那摩-圣胡安与波哥大-阿里卡-瓦尔迪维亚地震区未来有巨震发生;普利茅斯-库马纳与贝加尔湖地震区未来有大震或巨震发生;哈利法克斯-纽约-亚特兰大、阿拉斯加半岛、波兹曼-华雷斯城、韦韦特南戈-科万、加拉加斯-库库塔、巴拿马城、太子港-金斯顿-特古西加尔巴、蓬塔阿雷纳斯、南桑威奇群岛、蒙塔古岛、布里奇曼岛、朱巴-布琼布拉与夏威夷群岛地震区未来有大震发生;大洋海岭地震区B与阿塞拉-利隆圭地震区未来有强震或大震发生;西斯科舍海盆地震区未来有强震发生;斯科舍海盆、大洋海岭地震区A与大洋海岭地震区C当前孕育周期主震事件已发生,目前处于余震活动期;对于蒙塔古岛东部地震区,若2006年MW7.4级地震为主震事件,则该区未来有可能发生MW7.0级左右余震,若非主震事件则未来将发生MW7.6~7.8级地震.本文所得结论可供有关国家相关部门参考,以采取有效防震减灾措施.     

环太平洋地震带巨震预测

基于孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论,提出了板间地震区初划原则与合理性检验原则,对环太平洋地震带划分了15个地震区.从孕育周期界定与主震事件判识角度,分析了这些地震区大(巨)震事件的孕育过程,研判了其未来震情.结果表明:台湾岛-菲律宾群岛与琉球群岛-台湾岛地震区均已到达临界状态。巨震可随时发生;阿留申群岛-温哥华-旧金山-瓜达拉哈拉、墨西哥城、波哥大-阿里卡-瓦尔迪维亚、苏瓦-惠灵顿、新几内亚岛一所罗门群岛、爪哇岛-马鲁古群岛、北马里亚那群岛和北海道-堪察加地震区未来有巨震发生;圣萨尔瓦多一圣何塞地震区未来有大震或巨震发生;梅莱凯奥克地震区未来有大震发生;苏门答腊地震区2004年M_W 9.1级地震与查戈斯群岛地震区2012年M_W 8.6级地震均为主震事件;巴拿马城南部地震区是一个不低于M_W 7.2级地震危险区.本文所得结论可供有关国家相关部门参考,以采取有效防震减灾措施.对上述震倒的分析表明:深源地震可能与浅源地震孕育机制类似,均为锁固段脆性破裂.     

云南盈江Ms5.8级地震和缅甸Ms7.2级地震预测总结及震后趋势分析

针对强震能否预测以及如何预测的科学难题,建立了孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论与相关预测方法.结合作者前期研究成果--中缅边境地震区未来强震四要素预测结果,并与2011年3月云南盈江Ms5.8级地震、缅甸Ms7.2级地震比较,认为这两次地震都能被作者提出的理论方法提前预测,表明该理论方法能可靠地应用于中等强度预震和主震的预...     

西北与西藏地区某些地震区地震趋势分析

运用孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论及相关预测方法,分析了西北与西藏地区某些地震区未来地震趋势,给出了这些地震区未来中强震、强震或大(巨)震的四要素预测结果 .分析表明:库木巴彦断裂地震区未来可能有MS6.2～7.0级地震发生,日土地震区未来有强震发生,玉树与仲巴地震区未来有大震发生,哈密-阿勒泰-斋桑地震区未来有大震或巨震发生.鉴于近期作者对特定地震区强震孕育周期界定及主震事件判识有了新的认识,故重新对乌兰-大柴旦、改则、古浪、共和、海原、玛多-阿坝、聂荣以北、拉孜、班戈以北、墨脱、当雄、洛隆与阿图什地震区未来震情进行研判.本文所得结论可供有关部门参考,以制定相应的防震减灾措施.     

华东、华南与西南地区某些地震区地震趋势分析

运用孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论及相关预测方法,分析了华东、华南与西南地区某些地震区未来地震趋势,给出了这些地震区未来中强震、强震或大震的四要素预测结果.分析表明:南通东部黄海地震区未来有大震发生,威海地震区是一个MS6.0级地震危险区,宜昌地震区未来有中强震发生.鉴于我们近期对特定地震区的强震孕育周期界定及主震事件判识有了新的认识,故重新研判了万州地震区、普洱地震区、宜宾-长宁地震区与丽江地震区的未来震情.本文所得结论可供有关部门参考,以制定相应的防震减灾措施.     

中国西南地区某些地震区强震孕育周期界定

运用孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论及相关预测方法,界定了中国西南地区某些地震区的强震孕育周期,分析了这些地震区未来地震趋势.结果表明:得荣地震区与小江地震区当前孕育周期还未结束,未来分别有大震与巨震事件发生.鲜水河地震区与中缅边境地震区1已经历一个完整的孕育周期,未来分别有大(巨)震与强震事件发生.昭通地震区已经历一个完整的孕育周期,若2014年鲁甸地震实际震级不小于MS6.1级,则其为第二孕育周期的主震事件.西昌地震区与云龙地震区已经历两个完整的孕育周期,未来分别有大震与强震事件发生.下关-楚雄地震区已经历三个完整的孕育周期,目前处于第四孕育周期主震临震阶段.     

甘肃岷县漳县6.6级地震的前瞻性预测验证及震后趋势分析

基于作者提出的孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论与相关预测方法,作者于2013年7月21日对海原地震区未来震情进行了分析,并给出了该地震区较大地震事件的震级、震中经纬度、震源深度以及临界Benioff应变值四要素预测结果.将其前瞻性强震四要素预测结果与2013年7月22日甘肃岷县漳县6.6级地震参数进行比较,结果表明该前瞻性预测是一次较为成功的强震预测案例,2000年景泰Ms5.9级震群事件是2013年甘肃岷县漳县6.6级地震的直接导火索.     

国外某些地震区大地震孕育过程分析(Ⅰ)

在缺失断层资料、无法准确厘定地震区边界的情况下,本文提出了地震区划分的合理性判别原则与"最优地震区"确定方法.从孕育周期界定与主震事件判识角度,分析了7个国外地震区强(大、巨)震孕育过程,阐述了该方法的实际操作步骤.震情分析表明:意大利中部地震区和泰缅边境地震区未来有强震发生;海地-多米尼加-波多黎各地震区未来有大震发生;巴基斯坦-阿富汗-伊朗地震区未来将发生MW7.9~8.1级地震;对涉及深源地震的堪察加地震区、南美洲西部地震区和日本地震区,分考虑和不考虑深源地震两种情况,分析了上述三个地震区大(巨)震事件的孕育过程,给出了其未来巨震事件的四要素预测结果.研究表明:考虑深源地震与否,对于孕育周期起点与终点、膨胀点与峰值强度点标志性地震事件的选择、预测临界CBS值以及未来震情的判断都有一定影响,特别是在深源地震本身就是膨胀点或峰值强度点标志性事件的情况下其影响更加显著.因此,对深源地震成因机制的研究有待进一步深入,以期给出其是否参与孕震过程的明确依据.     

Cadmium,zinc, copper,and barium in foraminifera tests

The concentrations of cadmium, zinc, copper and barium have been determined on 2-mg samples of single-species foraminifera populations. Cleaning techniques were tested using North Atlantic core tops, and followed by a detailed downcore study for the last 30,000 years in South Atlantic core V22-174. Raw foram tests cleaned by crushing followed by ultrasonic removal of fine-grained material, and dissolved in a pH 5.5 acetate buffer, contain appreciable amounts of trace elements associated with ferromanganese and alumino-silicate contaminants. A reductive/complexing cleaning treatment reduces ferromanganese contamination by 1–2 orders of magnitude. Acetate buffers at pH 5.5 complex iron and raise the solubility of ferromanganese oxides; these buffers are unsuitable for separating carbonate lattice-bound trace elements from the fraction associated with ferromanganese phases. Improved mechanical and ultrasonic reductive cleaning combined with a mild dissolution in distilled water under 1 atm.P_CO2 reduces contaminant levels another order of magnitude. The Cd and Zn concentrations (order 10^?8 mole Cd/mole Ca and 10^?5 mole Zn/mole Ca) of species with low surface area show an increase with decreasing isotopic temperatures. This increase is consistent with the increasing concentrations of these metals from low values in surface waters to higher values at depth. The variance of Cd and Zn over the last 30,000 years in the central South Atlantic is consistent with the probable variability of the dissolved trace elements at the calcification levels of the species analyzed. Cu and Ba are irreproducible and probably sensitive to residual contaminant phases. The trace element content of the tests differs from levels observed in a recent coprecipitation study. Foraminifera may be a significant vector in zinc cycling in the ocean.     

Deterministic signals in precipitation in Arkansas,Louisiana, and Mississippi

Evidence for a signal near 19 years is found in 51 out of 65 rain gauge records in the tri-state region of Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi, While another term with period 10 to 11 years is found in 39 instances. These are identified as the 18.6-year luni-solarM _n and solar cycleS _c signals in climate variability. In terms of both amplitude and phase the luni-solar wave trains are highly nonstationary; in particular, the waves commonly change phase by 180°. Examples of theM _n andS _c terms in corn yield for Arkansas and Missouri are presented, and the implications for economic science briefly discussed.     

Deccan plume,lithosphere rifting,and volcanism in Kutch,India

Kutch (northwest India) experienced lithospheric thinning due to rifting and tholeiitic and alkalic volcanism related to the Deccan Traps K/T boundary event. Alkalic lavas, containing mantle xenoliths, form plug-like bodies that are aligned along broadly east–west rift faults. The mantle xenoliths are dominantly spinel wehrlite with fewer spinel lherzolite. Wehrlites are inferred to have formed by reaction between transient carbonatite melts and lherzolite forming the lithosphere. The alkalic lavas are primitive (Mg# = 64–72) relative to the tholeiites (Mg# = 38–54), and are enriched in incompatible trace elements. Isotope and trace element compositions of the tholeiites are similar to what are believed to be the crustally contaminated Deccan tholeiites from elsewhere in India. In terms of Hf, Nd, Sr, and Pb isotope ratios, all except two alkalic basalts plot in a tight cluster that largely overlap the Indian Ridge basalts and only slightly overlap the field of Reunion lavas. This suggests that the alkalic magmas came largely from the asthenosphere mixed with Reunion-like source that welled up beneath the rifted lithosphere. The two alkalic outliers have an affinity toward Group I kimberlites and may have come from an old enriched (metasomatized) asthenosphere. We present a new model for the metasomatism and rifting of the Kutch lithosphere, and magma generation from a CO₂-rich lherzolite mantle. In this model the earliest melts are carbonatite, which locally metasomatized the lithosphere. Further partial melting of CO₂-rich lherzolite at about 2–2.5 GPa from a mixed source of asthenosphere and Reunion-like plume material produced the alkalic melts. Such melts ascended along deep lithospheric rift faults, while devolatilizing and exploding their way up through the lithosphere. Tholeiites may have been generated from the main plume head further south of Kutch.     

2006年台湾屏东海外7.2级地震前福建漳州汰内井水氡异常分析

通过对福建华安县汰内井2005年以来的水氡测值进行分析,提取了中期及短期异常,认为这些异常与2006年12月26日台湾屏东海外7.2级地震有关。     

Streamflow generation in semi-arid,glacier-covered,montane catchments in the upper Shule River,Qilian Mountains,northeastern Tibetan plateau

Streamflow generation was investigated using isotopic and geochemical tracers in semiarid, glacier-covered, montane catchments in the upper Shule River, northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Samples from stream water, precipitation, glacier meltwater, and groundwater were collected at the Suli and Gahe catchments along the Shule River, with an area of 1908 and 4210 km², respectively. The samples were analysed for stable isotopes of water and major ions. Results of diagnostic tools of mixing models showed that Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺ and Cl⁻, along with δ¹⁸O and δ²H, behaved conservatively as a result of mixing of three endmembers. The three endmembers identified by the mixing analysis were surface runoff directly from precipitation, groundwater, and glacier meltwater. Streamflow was dominated by groundwater, accounting for 59% and 60% of streamflow on average in the Suli and Gahe catchments, respectively, with minimum groundwater contribution in July (47% and 50%) and maximum contribution in October (69% and 70%). The contributions of surface runoff were slightly higher in the Suli catchment (25%) than in the Gahe catchment (19%). However, the contributions of glacier meltwater were higher in the Gahe catchment (21%) compared to the Suli catchment (17%), as a result of a higher percentage of glacier covered area in the Gahe catchment. This difference followed well the non-linear power–law trend of many glacier-covered catchments around the world. As glacier retreat continues in the future, the reduction of streamflow in glacier-covered upper Shule catchment likely will be accelerated and possibly elsewhere in the Tibetan Plateau. This study suggests that it is critical to define the turning point of an accelerated reduction in glacier meltwater for glacier-covered catchments around the world in order to better assess and manage water resources.     

Complexity,magnetic field topology,criticality, and metastability in magnetotail dynamics

Recently, it has been shown that certain features of magnetotail dynamics in response to solar wind changes may resemble the behavior of a complex system near a dynamical critical state (Chang, Phys. Plasmas 6 (1999) 4137; Consolini and Chang, Space Sci. Rev. 95 (2001) 309), and of topological phase transitions (Chang, Phys. Scr. (2001), 80). Moreover, the impulsive part of the magnetotail response seems to be well described by cellular automata and other simulation models displaying criticality.Here, the relevance of the magnetic field topological disorder will be discussed in connection with observed complexity and near-criticality, showing how the impulsive character of the magnetotail response could be viewed as fluctuation-induced topological transitions among metastable configurations of magnetic field topology.     

Nutrient flux, uptake, and transformation in a spring-fed stream in the Missouri Ozarks, USA

We examined nutrient flux, uptake, and transformation along a spring-fed stream in the Ozark region of Missouri, USA, over the year 2006. Water in Mill Creek originates from several springs, with a single spring contributing over 90% of the stream discharge during much of the year of study. Soluble reactive phosphate concentrations were usually low (<10 μg L⁻¹) along Mill Creek, but peaked during high discharge. Concentrations of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) were relatively high in the spring water, mainly as nitrate, but usually declined across a small pond and the 10-km length of Mill Creek. During low flows in summer and early autumn, the stream removed over 300 μg L⁻¹ of DIN over its 10-km length, or about 80% of the initial amount. DIN retention along the stream, as a percentage of the DIN upstream, was related mainly to discharge, with higher flows having much higher DIN concentrations. The net uptake rate of DIN uptake was 0.91 μg m⁻² s⁻¹ in the stream during summer baseflow. The uptake rate declined downstream for different reaches and was closely related to DIN concentration. In experimental channels, uptake by epilithic algae was one significant sink for nitrate-N in Mill Creek. In 2006, inorganic nutrient export during a single day after a spring storm was similar to export during 40–100 days of low flow conditions in summer and early autumn. Our results suggest that significant nutrient retention can occur during baseflow periods via biological uptake, whereas substantial export occurs during high flow conditions.     

Macroalgal mats in Langstone Harbour,Hampshire, England

The spread of green algae over mudflats in Langstone Harbour has been caused by increased discharges of both treated and untreated sewage effluent. The decline in some species of estuarine birds may be a secondary effect of the blanketing of the muds by algae, but Soulsby et al. concluded that the evidence for a causal link was inconclusive. This note examines the points they put forward in support of this.     

A once-molten,coarse-grained,Ca-rich inclusion in Allende

A compact, spheroidal Type B inclusion in Allende contains melilite laths that project radially inward from the inclusion edge which show interference growth textures. The combined textural and chemical features of this object cannot be explained by independent vapor-solid condensation of grains in space, followed by random aggregation of these grains into an inclusion. Rather, it probably formed from a once-molten droplet that crystallized in response to radiative cooling from its outer surface. The crystallization sequence in this and another similar inclusion in which oxygen isotopes have been measured is: melilite-spinel-anorthite-fassaite. This sequence supports the idea that oxygen isotopic heterogeneities in coarse-grained inclusions were formed after complete solidification of these objects by partial exchange with a less¹⁶O-rich gas, and not during or before a melting event.