加卸载响应比理论在水库型滑坡时间预测预报中的应用研究

加卸载响应比理论在滑坡时间预测预报中的应用越来越广泛,但基本都以降雨型堆积层滑坡为研究对象,加卸载参数以降雨量、地下水水位为主,而对于水库型滑坡研究较少。为此,提出了一种以库水位为加卸载参数,以滑坡加速度为加卸载响应参数的预测模型,并以典型水库型滑坡——八字门滑坡为例对其准确性进行验证。研究结果表明,以库水位为加卸载参数的加卸载响应比理论预测模型能较准确地对水库型滑坡进行预测预报。     

四川省白龙江宝珠寺水库滑坡分布特征及库岸稳定程度模糊聚类分析

宝珠寺水库自蓄水以来由于库水的反复升降及暴雨作用，库区沿岸发生了较大面积的滑坡，库区许多交通等基础设施，迁建集镇、移民房屋遭到破坏，对沿岸经济发展及社会稳定造成严重影响。文章在对库区滑坡分布特征、类型、形成条件、形成机制及其活动特征分析基础上，以库岸地形特征、地质条件、岸坡岩土次生改造作用、库水升降影响、人类工程活动及岸坡集水面积6个指标为参数，对库岸稳定程度进行了聚类分析。结果表明，宝珠寺水库沿岸岸坡约有4％处于稳定状态。70％处于较稳定状态，20％处于较不稳定状态，其余处于不稳定状态。     

基于SBAS-InSAR技术的白鹤滩水电站库岸潜在滑坡变形分析

库岸潜在滑坡变形分析是保障国家水利水电设施安全运行的重要环节,针对仅利用单一轨道SAR数据对库岸潜在滑坡变形监测不准确的问题,采用SBAS-InSAR技术,联合升降轨Sentinel-1 SAR数据构建研究区2019年7月至2021年7月的雷达视线方向形变时间序列,并结合无人机野外调查,分析白鹤滩水电站库岸典型潜在滑坡...     

三峡库区滑坡空间发育规律及其关键影响因子

三峡库区涉水滑坡众多,目前库岸滑坡空间发育规律及其影响因素尚不明确.收集三峡大坝至库尾江津长江两岸593处滑坡相关资料,选取地层岩性、斜坡结构、高程与坡度作为滑坡关键控制因素及库水作用这一诱发因素.沿三峡大坝追溯至库尾,根据不同影响因子把干流库岸进行分段研究,统计滑坡在各影响因子中的分布特征,分析其分布规律及内在机理,可得以下结论:（1）受不同岩组的工程地质性质差异,干流库岸稳定性差异较大,造成滑坡在空间分布上呈显著区域差异性与分带性特征;（2）在同一岩组的左、右两岸或上下游段滑坡发育密度呈明显局部差异性,其主要受斜坡结构影响,顺向坡中发育密度明显高于横向坡与逆向坡;（3）由于地形地貌条件及库水作用影响,滑坡后缘高程与坡度由库首至库尾逐渐降低,而前缘主要集中于100~175 m,滑坡复活变形的最主要诱发因素为库水位升降作用,当水位作用于滑坡中前部时影响效果最明显,影响时效随着滑坡逐年变形应力调整后逐渐减弱.研究结果为三峡库区滑坡防治提供了一定依据.      

多分类支持向量机在滑坡稳定性判识中的应用

如何准确地判识和评价滑坡的稳定性一直是滑坡研究中的关键问题。基于多分类支持向量机的基本理论,利用三峡库区的37个典型滑坡（27个训练样本,10个测试样本）,建立了滑坡稳定性判识的多分类支持向量机模型,并与距离判别分析方法进行了比较。结果表明,SVM模型对测试样本和训练样本的判识准确率均达到100％,而距离判别法对测试样本和训练样本的判识准确率分别为80％和77.8％,前者的判识精度明显优于后者。在此基础上,将SVM模型运用于溪洛渡库区牛滚凼滑坡的稳定性判识中,结果与实际情况吻合较好。     

Evaluating sediment yield at King Talal Reservoir from landslides along Irbid–Amman Highway

With a capacity of 86 MCM, King Talal Reservoir is considered a major water supply in Jordan. It was built exclusively to irrigate the land in the Jordan Valley. Unexpectedly, the design capacity of the reservoir was confronted by the elevated sediment inflows during and after the construction of the Irbid–Amman Highway in 1987. Since then the annual sediment inflow measured at the mouth of the reservoir was higher than expected in a similar year. Notably, the over-wet season of 1991/2, as a result of six major landslides along the highway, registered the highest sediment inflow into the reservoir. In the present work the fractional contribution of these landslides to total sediment yield at the reservoir was evaluated. The evaluation was made by applying the well-known erosion model, AGNPS (Young et al., USDA Conservation Research Report 35, 1987). To calibrate the model, it was successively applied from 1980/1 to 1990/1 on the measured sediment data before the occurrence of landslides. With a slight tune-up of some of the King Talal watershed erosion variables, fairly good agreement was obtained in some years. However, the disagreement noticed in other years might be attributed to some conservation measures practised in the watershed. Because the serious landslides occurred in the wet season of 1991/2, the model was run for the two scenarios in this year: with and without landslides. The difference in results represents the contribution of landslides to sediment yield at the reservoir. It is concluded, based on these results, that landslides, if continued without control, will definitely jeopardize the design capacity of the reservoir.     

三峡库岸滑坡变形特征及影响因素分析

三峡库区涉水滑坡主要影响因素是水位和降雨量,也是库区滑坡体失稳的主要影响因素和诱发因素。库区每年重复着水位升降不利于滑坡的稳定,而降雨特别是大强度的降雨也诱发产生滑坡。当水位波动遇到降雨,出现工况叠加,滑坡将加剧。因此,有必要对影响滑坡变形的主导因素进行了解分析。2016年6月三峡库区全面展开了自动化监测,使得数据统计方便可靠。本文采用滑坡变形速率、降雨量、库水位变化、最大水位变化速率、淹没程度,运用灰色关联度分析法对涉水滑坡进行了计算分析。水位下降阶段,文中土质滑坡变形受库水位影响最大。水位上升阶段,该土质滑坡上部变形受降雨影响最大,下部受水位影响最大。文中岩质滑坡总是受库水位影响最大。     

两河口水电站雅砻江主库区滑坡发育规律

两河口水电站雅砻江主库区滑坡的形成与地层岩性、斜坡地质结构、河谷地貌特征密切相关,滑坡主要发生于板岩及板岩与中薄层状砂岩互层的中陡—陡倾反向层状结构斜坡和板岩陡倾顺向层状结构斜坡中,且多发生于峡谷凹岸及三面临空的脊状山体一侧。滑坡变形破坏方式主要为弯曲—拉裂型。     

裂隙水诱发缓倾角滑坡变形破坏机理初步研究

基于弹性力学的有关理论和Mohr-Coulomb破坏准则，对三峡库区缓倾角滑面滑坡裂隙水压力致滑问题进行了定量化研究，探讨了裂隙水压力致滑的判据和缓倾角滑面滑坡滑动时临界水深的计算方法，并分析了裂隙水压力致滑的机理和过程。对三峡库区缓倾角地层滑坡的防治设计具有一定的意义。     

Landslides affecting sedimentary characteristics of reservoir basin

Typhoons Aere (2004) and Matsa (2005) caused high nephelometric turbidity in the Shihmen reservoir in northern Taiwan, jeopardizing the operation of the reservoir for several days, and ultimately impacting the living conditions and economy of the downstream residents. The torrential rains caused landslides and debris flows in upland areas, and flowed into riverbeds, likely contributing significantly to the suspended sediment yields in the reservoir. This investigation elucidates how upland landslides affect sediment attributes in the reservoir basin. Study methods including field observations, spatial analysis in GIS and aerial photo interpretation are adopted to trace the sediment sources and contributing factors to the landslide. Torrential rains induced landslides and debris-flows upland, causing river incisions and soil erosion in landslide areas lacking vegetation. These factors, together with the conditions of the engineered structures and geologic vulnerabilities of the area, caused suspended sediment yield in the reservoir. The high nephelometric turbidity could potentially reoccur, with masses of landslide-derived sediment remaining upland and in the riverbed.     

渗透系数与库水位升降对下坪滑坡稳定性的影响研究

在三峡水库运行过程中,库水位周期性涨落引起库区内滑坡稳定性发生变化,渗透特征是滑坡的内在属性,滑坡因渗透性的不同而导致其稳定性对库水变化的响应不同。根据万州库段水位统计资料,以三峡库区万州区下坪滑坡为模型,分析在4种不同数量级的渗透系数条件下的渗流场特征,研究在不同渗透系数下的滑坡稳定性变化规律。分析结果表明:该类型滑坡的稳定性变化与库水位的变化呈现高度的正相关;滑坡稳定性最差出现在库水位下降到最低水位时,且水位降速越快,滑坡稳定性越差;不同渗透条件下的滑坡稳定性随时间的变化规律基本一致,其变化率处在一定的波动范围内,保持在-2%~2%之间;滑坡稳定性的最大值和最小值都是随着渗透性的变大而变大;稳定性最小值与渗透系数的对数值表现为近似指数关系,稳定性最大值与渗透系数的对数值表现为近似对数关系。     

关键影响因子作用下三峡库区堆积层滑坡分布规律及变形破坏响应特征

三峡库区崩滑地质灾害频发,堆积层滑坡是最常见的滑坡类型。在分析三峡库区145处库岸堆积层滑坡资料基础上,选取地形地貌、地质岩性和斜坡构造作为控制因素、降水和库水波动作为主要诱发因素,探究堆积层滑坡在上述关键影响因子下的分布发育规律及变形破坏响应特征,阐明内在机理,结果表明:(1)受区域地质构造和基岩地层岩性显著控制,滑坡发育频次和规模沿长江存在显著空间差异性;(2)砂页岩夹煤层岩组(SC)和泥灰岩与砂泥岩互层岩组(MSM)对库区堆积层滑坡危害最大,软岩、“软-硬”互层二元结构和水-岩(土)相互作用是主导滑坡发育的主要影响因素;(3)大多数滑坡涉水,主要发育在10°~30°斜坡上,前缘高程集中在100~175 m,受库水波动影响严重,岸别和斜坡结构对堆积层滑坡发育没有明显控制作用;(4)库区滑坡主要由降雨-库水下降联合诱发滑体前缘滑移-拉裂,引发牵引式滑坡,降雨与库水波动各自对滑体的影响格局和程度存在明显差异。以期研究成果为有针对性的库区滑坡总体防治提供一定的科学指导。     

滑坡预警判据初步研究--以三峡库区为例

在三峡库区典型地段滑坡灾害调查评价和统计分析的基础上,结合典型滑坡变形发展的阶段性变形现象、标志和临界诱发因素分析,初步提出3个层次的滑坡预警预报判据27条,包括:(1)滑坡空间预测识别判据11条,主要用于滑坡或潜在危岩体空间识别和危险性区划,是滑坡空间预测的基本判据;(2)滑坡状态判据7条,主要用于滑坡单体稳定性评价的亚临界-临界状态预警判据,是滑坡状态预警判据系统的重要组成部分;(3)滑坡临界时间预报判据9条,主要用于单体滑坡剧烈变形或临滑预报,是滑坡时间预报研究的关键判据.     

Investigations and assessment of the landslide hazards of Fengdu county in the reservoir region of the Three Gorges project on the Yangtze River

The spatial database of landslides in Fengdu County of the reservoir region of the Three Gorges project (TGP) on the Yangtze River was compiled from a variety of different sources including field investigations on landslides, existing catalogues and archives on landslides, reports of meteorological events and human engineering activities that triggered slope failures. The major factors that are found to have affected the slope stabilities are outlined, and an assessment and zonation of landslide hazards of the region is made using an integrated information model, which is divided into destructive, disastrous, likely disastrous and essentially non-disastrous areas from the assessment of landslide hazards. The destructive and disastrous areas are respectively 1.9 and 13.8% of the total region, mostly being nearby townships, highways along the south bank of the Yangtze River and residential quarters along two flanks of the Yangtze River and its distributaries, that will impose direct impact to highway transportation and residential lives, and may effect to some degree the navigation of the Yangtze River, reservoir banks, and building of cities and towns.     

长江三峡库区滑坡发育与河道演变的地质过程分析

据区域地质灾害调查,三峡库区发育有数以千计的滑坡.年代学研究表明,三峡地区的滑坡均发生于第四纪中更新世中后期,并具有明显的阶段性特征,滑坡的高发期大致为:(41~37)×104 aBP、(31~27)×104 aBP和(17~5)×104 aBP.滑坡发育与区域新构造抬升和河流地貌形成的地质过程相一致,且主要发生在第四纪的间冰期,表明滑坡与构造抬升、气候变暖、长江河道快速下切贯通发展具有一定的耦合关系.三峡地区尚未发现年龄超过54×104 aBP的滑坡,据此推测长江贯通三峡的时间可能在早更新世.      

三峡库区典型滑坡变形与高水位涨落关系研究

从滑坡的基本概况、变形史和监测资料入手,应用定性分析的方法对三峡库区6个典型水库型滑坡进行了分析总结,得出滑坡自身的工程地质背景及其水文地质背景是导致该类型滑坡产生明显变形的主要内在因素,且该类型滑坡的变形具有空间分布特征和时间效应特征;认为库水位涨落及其涨落的速率和周期性是引发该类型滑坡产生明显变形的主要外在因素.     

长江三峡库区滑坡与构造活动的关系

论文总结了三峡库区的新构造活动规律及其与滑坡之间的关系。三峡库区新构造运动呈现出良好的阶段性 ,具体表现为 :地壳快速隆升期与相对稳定的阶地发育期相间 ,断裂活动、地震活动活跃期与宁静期相间。滑坡也具有阶段性 ,并且与构造活动阶段性之间有一一对应关系 ,即滑坡的高峰期对应着构造活动的高峰期。这些说明 ,在新构造期构造活动因素在三峡滑坡的发育过程中起着重要的作用。依据地震的活动周期显示 ,在未来的一定时期内构造活动处于平静期 ,人类活动可能成为滑坡的主要影响因素。     

The regional distribution regularity of landslides and their effects on the environments in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China

On the basis of research and analysis of the landslide system of the Three Gorges Reservoir area, this paper systematically analyzes and studies the temporal–spatial distribution law of landslides of this reservoir area and their impacts on environment of this area. The paper puts forward that the temporal–spatial distribution of this area’s landslides is mainly controlled by lithologic characters of strata, geological structure, valley landscape, and types of bank slope structure; landslide deformation and failure have such characteristics as simultaneity, laggardness, cyclical instability, and stage. Besides, the paper systematically analyzes and studies the main impacts of landslide on environment and points out that landslides and collapses will bring about relatively serious impacts on relocation and layout of cities and towns along the banks. These impacts mainly include the increase of relocation investment, number of migrants, and compensation for losses. Much attention and evaluation should be paid to the impacts of Xintan Landslide and Lianziya Landslide—large landslides near the Dam—on the construction and safety of the Three Gorges Project. However, landslides have relatively small impacts on shipping and reservoir capacity. The above-mentioned research is of great guiding significance for the construction of the Three Georges Project, planning and construction of cities and towns along the banks, and protection of geological environment.     

汉江孤山水电站库首罗行滩滑坡稳定性分析及处理对策

罗行滩滑坡是汉江孤山水电站库首的重要滑坡之一,系发育在崩坡积土层中的堆积层滑坡,体积约70×104 m3,属中型滑坡。据野外调查,初步分析滑坡目前整体处于基本稳定状态。分现状、暴雨和水库蓄水等3种工况对滑坡进行稳定性计算,结果表明：在现状条件下,滑坡基本稳定;在暴雨工况和蓄水工况条件下两侧滑体稳定性较差,中段滑体稳定性较好,但两侧滑体若失稳对中段滑体稳定不利。滑坡失稳对工程危害较大,建议滑坡治理结合大坝围堰填筑用料采取清除措施。     

地形坡度对鄂渝地区水库型堆积层滑坡贡献率研究

堆积层滑坡是库区常见的滑坡类型之一,而地形坡度是滑坡发育的重要内因,研究地形坡度与堆积层滑坡发生概率之间的关系对水库型堆积层滑坡的危险性评价具有重要意义。以三峡库区及丹江口库区的139处堆积层滑坡为例,首先,将滑坡地形坡度以每隔5划分为一个区间,总共分为7个区间; 在此基础上,采用贡献率方法,定量研究了地形坡度分别对滑坡数量、面积、体积的贡献率; 最后,通过迭加统计,得到了不同坡度区间对滑坡发生的综合贡献率。结果表明, 15～25的地形坡度对水库型堆积层滑坡的贡献率最高, 10～15及25～30的地形坡度对水库型堆积层滑坡的贡献率中等,小于10及大于30的地形坡度对水库型堆积层滑坡的贡献率最小。研究结果可为具有类似地质背景的水库型堆积层滑坡危险性评估及防治规划提供参考依据。