金矿资源量灰色建模预测法

本文应用灰色预测的理论，在给出了矿床定性预测－灰色关联分析预测法的基础上，提出了矿床资源量定量预测－灰色ＧＭ（１，１）拓扑预测法。理论分析和预测结果表明，该方法适用于矿床的定量预测，为预测金矿资源提供了科学依据。     

沉降预测的非等步长灰色时变参数模型

针对经典灰色系统模型的不足，根据灰色系统理论的信息处理原则，在模型中引入遗忘因子，建立了灰色系统沉降预测的非等步长灰色时变参数模型，并在求解过程中引入遗忘因子以修正预测结果。模型充分考虑了预测系统的时变性和灰色性，从而降低对预测系统状态的预测误差。实例预测表明，灰色时变参数模型可以将工后总沉降量的预测误差控制在23%以内。误差检验结果显示，预测结果的精度等级较引入遗忘因子修正前有显著的提高。     

河流年径流量的R/S灰色预测

径流过程具有分形和灰色特征。基于此,将R/S分析与灰色系统理论相结合,提出了R/S灰色预测模型以预报河流年径流量。针对黑河正义峡水文站60a(1949~2011年)的年径流量资料,首先进行R/S分析,确定径流量序列的Hurst指数H和平均循环周期T;然后在一个周期内进行年径流量灰色预测。结果表明:R/S灰色预测结果的精度明显高于直接进行灰色预测的精度。该方法拓宽了分形和灰色理论在径流过程研究的应用范围,为河流径流量的科学预测提供了一种新方法。     

沉降预测的非等步长灰色时变参数模型

根据灰色系统理论的信息处理原则,在灰色模型中引入时变参数,建立了沉降预测的非等步长灰色时变参数模型。模型充分考虑了预测系统的时变性和灰色性,在求解过程中,引入遗忘因子以修正预测结果,并根据后验方差比C确定遗忘因子λ的最优值,以提高预测精度。沉降预测实例表明：沉降预测的非等步长灰色时变参数模型具有较强的适用性,可降低沉降量的预测误差和提高沉降的预测精度。     

改进灰色马尔科夫模型及其在水资源预测中的利用

这里首先对灰色系统理论GM(1,1)模型的算法进行改进,并将改进后的灰色模型与马尔科夫模型结合。通过对灰色系统预测数据的修正,既发挥了灰色系统预测精确的特点,又利用了马尔科夫模型对预测波动性数据准确的优势,对于在任何时间序列上展开的具有一定波动性的数据进行预测,精度更高。     

超长桩承载力的灰色优化-马尔柯夫预测模型

为了提高模型预测的精度,根据灰色理论,建立超长桩承载力的非等步长灰色微分方程,得到了微分方程的精确解。基于优化理论,建立误差目标函数。利用最小二乘法,直接求得微分方程的系统参数,得到灰色优化模型。以此模型为基础划分n个状态,应用Markov原理,通过计算状态的一步转移概率矩阵,建立了灰色优化-马尔柯夫预测模型。使用该模型预测超长桩的承载力,预测值和试验值吻合较好,与GM(1,1)模型、灰色优化模型相比,预测精度进一步提高,为超长桩承载力的预测提供了新的方法。     

改进灰色模型对路基沉降预测的应用研究

讨论了灰色系统理论在路基沉降预测中的应用,并对等间隔的灰色模型GM（1,1）进行了改进,建立了任意间隔的非时序改进灰色模型。通过具体工程实践,给出了两种模型对路基沉降量预测结果与实测结果的比较,结果表明改进灰色模型的预测沉降量与实际沉降量更接近,精度更高,更能满足工程需要。     

钻机易磨损件更换时间间隔的灰色预测

提出了采用铁谱分析技术、运用灰色预测理论对钻机易磨损件的更换时间间隔进行灰色预测。通过实例计算,证明本方法效果良好。     

改进灰色模型对路基沉降预测的应用研究

讨论了灰色系统理论在路基沉降预测中的应用 ,并对等间隔的灰色模型GM(1,1)进行了改进 ,建立了任意间隔的非时序改进灰色模型。通过具体工程实践 ,给出了两种模型对路基沉降量预测结果与实测结果的比较 ,表明改进灰色模型的预测沉降量与实际沉降量更接近 ,精度更高 ,更能满足工程需要     

矿井涌水量的灰色预测

针对矿井涌水量研究中存在的问题,提出并论述了灰色预测理论应用于矿井涌水量预测的可行性和必要性,通过对井陉矿区的预测实践,建立了相应的 GM（1,1）模型,给出了提高灰色模型预测精度的方法。      

Connectivity of a network of random discontinuities

Discontinuities such as fractures or cracks are common in geo-materials. Connectivity is a comprehensive parameter that includes the influence of length, orientation and density of the discontinuities. The main objectives of this paper are to define connectivity based on the statistical geometrical parameters of a network of random discontinuities and to quantify the hydraulic properties of the network using connectivity. An analytical method is first proposed to evaluate connectivity through the density of degree of freedom (DDOF). The analytically estimated DDOF is verified using numerical analysis. DDOF increases with the increases in the mean length, relative orientation and density of the random discontinuity network. Connectivity becomes better and the permeability becomes larger with increasing DDOF. The representative element volume (REV) of a random discontinuity network can be estimated based on connectivity. When a discontinuity network is poorly connected, a REV does not exist when the size of the discontinuity network is smaller than 10 times of the mean length of the discontinuities. When a discontinuity network is normally connected, a REV exists when the REV size is smaller than 10 times of the mean length of the discontinuities. When the discontinuity network is highly connected, the REV size is only 2–4 times of the mean length of the discontinuities. The results indicate that DDOF is a good indicator to quantify the connectivity of a random discontinuity network and the relationship between connectivity and permeability.     

新疆吉木萨尔大龙口非海相二叠系—三叠系界线层段古地磁特征

通过对吉木萨尔县大龙口非海相二叠系-三叠系界线上下地层磁性特征的研究,在梧桐沟组-锅底坑组共发现78个极性异常,其中以负极性为主,间隔了一系列的正极性和过渡极性.梧桐沟组上部以负极性为主,间隔了2个正极性和过渡极性.这可与巴基斯坦盐岭和四川广元上寺的大隆组下部对比,即相当于Da段.梧桐沟组顶部和锅底坑组底部,正、负极性变化频繁,极性特征可与巴基斯坦盐岭和四川广元上寺大隆组中部对比,即相当于Db段.锅底坑组下部以负极性为主,间隔了2个正极性段,可与四川广元上寺大隆组中上部对比,即相当于Dc段.锅底坑组中下部以负极性为主,上部夹1个正极性段,可与四川广元上寺大隆组上部磁性特征对比,即相当于Dd段.锅底坑组中上部以负极性为主,间隔了4个正极性段,可与四川广元上寺飞仙关组下部对比,即相当于Fa段.根据磁性段的划分对比,将二叠系三叠系界线置于Fa和Dd之间,即本次研究测制剖面的41层和42层之间.根据各岩组的古地磁特征求得岩组形成时的古地磁极:梧桐沟组79.1°N,238.1°;锅底坑组72.3°N,322.2°;下三叠统77.5°N,320.8°.古纬度基本一致,为32°～35°N.     

Incipient Stage of Ore Formation Process of the Kamioka Zn-Pb Ore Deposit in the Hida Metamorphic Belt, Central Japan: Leaching and Precipitation of Clinopyroxene

Abstract: Boundaries between the cpx Zn-Pb ores of the Kamioka ore deposit and host clinopyroxene granitoid in the Hida metamorphic belt were examined to decipher the incipient stage of ore formation process. The boundaries are characterized by the compositional zoning of relic clinopyroxene with outward increase of XMg from 0. 5 to 0. 75 in the host rocks, and by the incline of XMg towards the ores, passing through the boundaries, reaching up to 0. 95. In the ores, relic clinopyroxene is rimmed by hedenbergite. Both clinopyroxenes show compositional zoning with outward decrease and increase of XMg and MnO, down to 0. 02 and to 3. 2 wt%, respectively. The presence of high magnesian clinopyroxene can be explained if hydrothermal fluid flow had leached hedenbergite component of relic clinopyroxene. The incline of XMg of clinopyroxene toward the ores was attributed to the degree of dissolution of clinopyroxene, and thus the total amounts of fluid to have passed. The outward decrease of XMg of clinopyroxenes in the ores was due to crystal-fluid fractionation during precipitation. These mineralogical changes at the boundaries indicate the time-integrated phenomena of hydrothermal ore forming process. Firstly, leaching of ore components by infiltrating fluid proceeded in host rocks, and enhanced the formation of a fluid channel. The condition of fluid changes through the fluid channel in P-T space, and hence ore forming minerals precipitate at a remote place from the leaching one. This in turn caused the physicochemical change of fluid condition anyhow, and accelerated the precipitation of the minerals. This leaching-precipitation sequence appears a basic process of hydrothermal ore-forming system, and characterizes the incipient stage of ore formation process of the Kamioka Zn-Pb ore deposit. Compositional zoning of clinopyroxenes defines Z-shaped compositional trend in the Di–Hd–Jo diagram, each arm of which corresponds to the leaching and the precipitation stages, and the secondary dissolution of precipitated clinopyroxene.     

贵州罗甸二叠纪末生物大灭绝事件后沉积的微生物岩时代和沉积学特征

二叠纪末期发生的显生宙以来最大的生物绝灭事件,使海洋生态系统和陆地生态系统均受到重创之后,微生物岩广泛分布于全球正常浅海地区。研究认为,扬子地台在二叠纪末期存在一次海平面降低的事件,造成研究区二叠纪地层与早三叠世微生物岩之间存在沉积间断或剥蚀,并使三叠纪牙形石混入二叠纪末期的沉积物中。二叠-三叠系界线位于微生物岩层的底界;微生物岩形成于早三叠世最早期,相当于Hindeodus parvus带,是早三叠世最早期开始的海侵事件为其提供生长所需的可容纳空间。在Isarcicella staeschei带-I. isarcica带早期再次发生相对海平面降低事件,之后海平面开始快速上升。研究区早三叠世早期的微生物岩以凝块构造发育为特征,具有斑状、层状、枝状和网状凝块构造4种典型中型构造。结合前人的工作,认为微生物群落通过生物沉积和物理沉积作用形成球状体,球状体汇聚形成不同的中型凝块构造。研究扬子地台早三叠世凝块石的确切时代和结构、构造类型特征,为准确恢复生物大灭绝事件前后的环境变迁以及生物演化事件与环境变化的相互作用关系提供重要的证据。     

Geochemistry and petrology of Mesozoic-Cenozoic magmatic complexes of the southern framing of the Aldan shield: Geodynamic problems

This paper summarizes the results of long-term geological, petrological, and geochemical investigations of the Mesozoic-Cenozoic complexes of the Stanovoy Range in order to determine the main reasons for their generation and evolution. The analysis of this material showed that the compositionally variable Late Mesozoic igneous complexes of the Stanovoy Range were formed in various depth facies, from abyssal to surficial. The majority of their salic complexes show minor compositional variations, whereas the mafic complexes are more variable, especially in the southeast of the region. The southeastern Stanovoy Range comprises comparable amounts of both subalkaline and low-alkali igneous rocks, whereas the central part is dominated by subalkaline rocks, and the northwestern part contains rocks only of the shoshonite-latite series. This zoning is fundamentally different from that of typical island arcs, which are characterized by the occurrence of volcanic rocks of similar alkalinity in each zone. Extrusive and intrusive rocks with similar alkali and silica contents (and schlieren-like inclusions in the granitoids of the region) were formed from common magmas of corresponding chemical compositions. In addition, the mafic and most of the salic magmas were formed as independent melting products, whereas the magmas of intermediate composition were formed mainly by mixing of chemically contrasting liquids (i.e., salic and basic). It was shown that the available information on the magmatism of the region is best interpreted in terms of the model of mantle diapirism. In particular, mantle diapirs ascended rather slowly during the Mesozoic and occurred over the whole territory of the Stanovoy Range during the Jurassic-Cretaceous stage (J₃-K₁), when alkaline and subalkaline basalts were formed. During the Early-Late Cretaceous stage, mantle diapirs produced alkali-poor basalts in the central and eastern parts. During the Cenozoic, the diapir ascended rather rapidly but only in a small area in the eastern part of the region forming alkali basalts. In contrast to the Cenozoic, the Earth’s crust was strongly affected by mantle diapirs and related mafic magmas in the Mesozoic. As a result, crustal sequences were reworked by fluids and subsequently yielded tremendous volumes of compositionally corresponding salic magmas, which interacted and mixed with mafic magmas producing the corresponding chemical zoning. The maximum generation of crustal magmas was confined to the axial zones of ascending diapirs, where the highest energy effects took place, whereas the role of autochthonous gneissic granites increased away from the axis at the expense of typical intrusive complexes.     

Stratigraphy and ecostratigraphic distribution of foraminiferal morphogroups from the Upper Jurassic of the Makar’yev section (Unzha River,Volga River basin)

Investigation of the Upper Callovian to Lower Kimmeridgian microfossils from the Makar’yev reference section (Unzha River, East European Platform) has been carried out. The section is characterized by ammonite debris and abundant associations of benthic and planktic foraminifers. It is a perfect object for stratigraphic and paleoecological researches. The biostratigraphic distribution of foraminifers from the Makar’yev section allows one to identify standard foraminifera zones of the East European Platform, as well as to upgrade some of them. The analysis of vertical and lateral ammonites and foraminiferal distribution, completed with litho stratigraphy, has precised the stratigraphic volume and position of boundaries of several lithological units.An improved stratigraphic scheme for the Kostroma area of the Moscow Depression is proposed. Analysis of the composition, structure, and dynamic changes of the foraminiferal assemblages has been performed. The morphofunctional analysis of foraminiferal genera has for the first time identified how foraminiferal morphogroups differing in their life style and feeding strategy varied with short-term paleoenvironmental changes. These morphogroup changes allow establishing four ecostratigraphic levels. These paleoecological data have been calibrated along with geochemical factors. They have shown a crisis of foraminiferal association during the Late Oxfordian and Early Kimmeridgian. A similar crisis has also been discovered in the north of Siberia, which may be an argument for its global distribution. The analysis of the taxonomic composition and the density of foraminiferal associations, in parallel with the structure of the association, has revealed a succession of transgressive and regressive events during the Late Callovian-Early Kimmeridgian. It allows the typification of each assemblage in relation with each event and underlines the occurrence of second-order sea-level fluctuations (middle part of the Middle Oxfordian and the earliest Kimmeridgian).     

有关《中国古地理图》的点滴追忆

The Atlas of Palaeogeography of China was published in 1955. This paper will introduce the impor- tant historical background of the compilation and publishing of the atlas. Actually it was a direct outcome of the famous Main geological structural units of China written by Huang Jiqing in 1945. Confined by the status of geological development of that stage, the atlas mainly presents the variation of the distribution of old landmasses and oceans during different geological stages. The compilation was based on facies types, palaeontological species , and features of regional fauna assemblages . The basic scale of the atlas was 1:1 000 000. There are totally 20 maps, spanning from the Sinian to Triassic of the Mesozoic. The compila-tion was finished in more than three years. The outline of landmasses and oceans, main direction of trans-gression and regression, distribution of fossils, crustal deformation, mineral deposits, as well as volcanic and glacial activities are shown with various patterns and colors     

Centrifuge simulation of the consolidation characteristics of capped marine sediment beds

Marine sediment capping is a technique where clean sand or sediment is placed over contaminated sediment to reduce the migration of contaminants to the environment. Environmental regulations have limited the use of in situ sediment capping due to concerns about the contaminant migration through the cap. A series of centrifuge tests were conducted to simulate the effects of consolidation settlement of capped marine sediment. This study describes the testing and monitoring of the centrifuge tests. The results from the centrifuge tests are interpreted and compared to predictions made by the PSDDF computer program, which can qualitatively estimate the consolidation settlement of capped marine sediment.

Centrifuge tests were utilized to predict the consolidation of marine sediment caused by the placement of a capping layer. The centrifuge tests used the modeling of models technique to verify that correct modeling procedures were utilized. In this study, the maximum deviation between the centrifuge test results and PSDDF prediction was 20%. Thus, designers should utilize PSDDF consolidation settlement results with caution. Dye tracer studies showed the importance of consolidation-induced advective transport of contaminants. Thus, the capping layer must be appropriately designed to reduce the effects of consolidation-induced advective transport. This may be accomplished by adding a reactive barrier or geosynthetic barrier layer to the cap design.     

Lipid geochemistry of a post-glacial lacustrine sediment

The post-glacial environmental history of Voua de la Motte, a small pond, was studied by the lipid geochemistry of a 6 m long core. Palynological studies show that the deepest part of the core goes back to 10,000 yr BP corresponding to the time of formation of the lake following the retreat of the Rhodanian glacier. Hydrocarbons, aldehydes, linear alcohols, sterols, monocarboxylic and monohydroxy fatty acids, were determined throughout the core both in the free and bound lipid fractions, as well as in the tightly bound fraction for the carboxylic acids. There is no clear evidence of a transformation from the unbound to the bound form, except perhaps for the α-hydroxy acids.Qualitative as well as quantitative fluctuations in the distributions of these lipid classes were observed upward in the core. An attempt is made to correlate these fluctuations with the bioenvironmental and climatological evolution of the Basin on the basis of information obtained from palynology.     

Statistical considerations for grain-size analyses of tills

Relative percentages of sand, silt, and clay from samples of the same till unit are not identical because of different lithologies in the source areas, sorting in transport, random variation, and experimental error. Random variation and experimental error can be isolated from the other two as follows. For each particle-size class of each till unit, a standard population is determined by using a normally distributed, representative group of data. New measurements are compared with the standard population and, if they compare satisfactorily, the experimental error is not significant and random variation is within the expected range for the population. The outcome of the comparison depends on numerical criteria derived from a graphical method rather than on a more commonly used one-way analysis of variance with two treatments. If the number of samples and the standard deviation of the standard population are substituted in at-test equation, a family of hyperbolas is generated, each of which corresponds to a specific number of subsamples taken from each new sample. The axes of the graphs of the hyperbolas are the standard deviation of new measurements (horizontal axis) and the difference between the means of the new measurements and the standard population (vertical axis). The area between the two branches of each hyperbola corresponds to a satisfactory comparison between the new measurements and the standard population. Measurements from a new sample can be tested by plotting their standard deviation vs. difference in means on axes containing a hyperbola corresponding to the specific number of subsamples used. If the point lies between the branches of the hyperbola, the measurements are considered reliable. But if the point lies outside this region, the measurements are repeated. Because the critical segment of the hyperbola is approximately a straight line parallel to the horizontal axis, the test is simplified to a comparison between the means of the standard population and the means of the subsample. The minimum number of subsamples required to prove significant variation between samples caused by different lithologies in the source areas and sorting in transport can be determined directly from the graphical method. The minimum number of subsamples required is the maximum number to be run for economy of effort.