Enhancing a GIS Cellular Automata Model of Land Use Change: Bayesian Networks, Influence Diagrams and Causality

Cellular Automata (CA) models at present do not adequately take into account the relationship and interactions between variables. However, land use change is influenced by multiple variables and their relationships. The objective of this study is to develop a novel CA model within a geographic information system (GIS) that consists of Bayesian Network (BN) and Influence Diagram (ID) sub‐models. Further, the proposed model is intended to simplify the definition of parameter values, transition rules and model structure. Multiple GIS layers provide inputs and the CA defines the transition rules by running the two sub‐models. In the BN sub‐model, land use drivers are encoded with conditional probabilities extracted from historical data to represent inter‐dependencies between the drivers. Using the ID sub‐model, the decision of changing from one land use state to another is made based on utility theory. The model was applied to simulate future land use changes in the Greater Vancouver Regional District (GVRD), Canada from 2001 to 2031. The results indicate that the model is able to detect spatio‐temporal drivers and generate various scenarios of land use change making it a useful tool for exploring complex planning scenarios.     

Using Pattern‐oriented Modeling (POM) to Cope with Uncertainty in Multi‐scale Agent‐based Models of Land Change

Local land‐use and ‐cover changes (LUCCs) are the result of both the decisions and actions of individual land‐users, and the larger global and regional economic, political, cultural, and environmental contexts in which land‐use systems are embedded. However, the dearth of detailed empirical data and knowledge of the influences of global/regional forces on local land‐use decisions is a substantial challenge to formulating multi‐scale agent‐based models (ABMs) of land change. Pattern‐oriented modeling (POM) is a means to cope with such process and parameter uncertainty, and to design process‐based land change models despite a lack of detailed process knowledge or empirical data. POM was applied to a simplified agent‐based model of LUCC to design and test model relationships linking global market influence to agents’ land‐use decisions within an example test site. Results demonstrated that evaluating alternative model parameterizations based on their ability to simultaneously reproduce target patterns led to more realistic land‐use outcomes. This framework is promising as an agent‐based virtual laboratory to test hypotheses of how and under what conditions driving forces of land change differ from a generalized model representation depending on the particular land‐use system and location.     

Visualisation techniques to support public interpretation of future climate change and land-use choices: a case study from N-E Scotland

Mitigating and adapting to climate change includes a requirement to evaluate the role of future land uses in delivering robust integrated responses that are sensitive to local landscape contexts. In practice, this emphasises the need for community engagement, planning and inclusive decision-making. Community engagement may be potentially facilitated by the use of spatially explicit quantitative scenarios of land-use change in combination with interactive visualisation. This requires a coherent framework to integrate spatial data modelling, analytical capabilities and visualisation tools in a format that will also engage diverse public audiences. These challenges were explored with a case study of virtual landscapes from N-E Scotland that was used to test preferences for scenarios of future land use. Visualisations employed texture-based rendering rather than full photo-realistic rendering to facilitate interactivity and this provided additional scope for audiences to explore multiple future scenarios compared to the present landscape. Interactive voting in a virtual landscape theatre suggested preferences for visual diversity, good stewardship and perceived naturalness that should be considered in developing planned responses to change. Further investigation of preferences was conducted using interactive 3D features located within the landscape. Study findings are reviewed against objectives for inclusive engagement in the Digital Earth agenda and used to make further recommendations on the use of scenarios and visualisation tools. In particular, technical advances in user engagement need to be developed in conjunction with emerging good practice that addresses ethical, behavioural and inclusion issues so that the content is presented in as transparent and unbiased format as possible.     

Incorporating GIS data into an agent-based model to support planning policy making for the development of creative industries

This paper presents an extension to the agent-based model “Creative Industries Development–Urban Spatial Structure Transformation” by incorporating GIS data. Three agent classes, creative firms, creative workers and urban government, are considered in the model, and the spatial environment represents a set of GIS data layers (i.e. road network, key housing areas, land use). With the goal to facilitate urban policy makers to draw up policies locally and optimise the land use assignment in order to support the development of creative industries, the improved model exhibited its capacity to assist the policy makers conducting experiments and simulating different policy scenarios to see the corresponding dynamics of the spatial distributions of creative firms and creative workers across time within a city/district. The spatiotemporal graphs and maps record the simulation results and can be used as a reference by the policy makers to adjust land use plans adaptively at different stages of the creative industries’ development process.     

Integration of Satellite Telemetry Data and Land Cover Imagery: A Study of Migratory Cranes in Northeast Asia

The present study describes a procedure for quantitatively analyzing satellite telemetry data to identify interspecific land use differences among four threatened crane species. The inherent inaccuracy of satellite telemetry data points, the temporal autocorrelation of those points, and the resolution of two land‐cover imagery products from the IGBP‐DISCover Global Land‐Cover Characterization Project (derived from AVHRR data) were assessed and integrated in a GIS. Satellite telemetry is a system where animals are tracked using battery‐operated transmitters and locations are calculated using triangulation from satellites. Using the variable spatial inaccuracy of the telemetry locations, each point was buffered using a radius based on the accuracy of the point, and then intersected with the land cover imagery. The research concluded that the methodology is valuable for studies of birds at a regional scale, with interspecific differences clearly evident, but that diurnal and nocturnal differences were not discernable due to the coarse resolution of both satellite telemetry and land‐cover data.     

Evaluation of Land Suitability for Urban Land‐Use Planning: Case Study Dhaka City

The aim of this research is evaluation of land suitability for urban land‐use planning. Four factors and fourteen criteria were selected for suitability analysis and land‐use planning. Factors and criteria were defined based on literature survey, experts’ opinions, local contexts and availability of data. GIS‐based Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used as a Multi‐criteria Decision Making model. The study was conducted on a selected area of Dhaka city, which is one of the fastest growing mega‐cities of the world. The research result shows that highly suitable area (13%) should be used for urban residential zone; moderately suitable area (35%) should be designated as mixed use zone; low suitable area (42%) should be reserved for agricultural use and open spaces; and not suitable area (10%) should be protected from any types of activities except agriculture. The research approached an urban land‐use planning at a regional scale.     

Development of a GIS-based decision support system for assessing land use status

The objectives of this study are to assess land suitability and to predict the spatial and temporal changes in land use types (LUTs) by using GIS-based land use management decision support system. A GIS database with data on climate, topography, soil characteristic, irrigation condition, fertilizer application, and special socioeconomic activities has been developed and used for the evaluation of land productivity for different crops by integrating with a crop growth model—the erosion productivity impact calculator (EPIC). International food policy simulation model (IFPSIM) is also embedded into GIS for the predictions of how crop demands and crop market prices will change under alternative policy scenarios. An inference engine (IE) including land use choice model is developed to illustrate land use choice behavior based on logit models, which allows to analyze how diversified factors ranging from climate changes, crop price changes to land management changes can effect the distribution of agricultural land use. A test for integrated simulation is taken in each 0.1o by 0.1o grid cell to predict the change of agricultural land use types at global level. Global land use changes are simulated from 1992 to 2050.     

Development of a GIS-based decision support system for assessing land use status

IntroductionAgriculturallandusepatternsandtheirchangesaretightlyrelatedwithagriculturepolicyandfoodsecurityissuesundergrowingfooddemand,assess mentofglobalclimatechangeimpactsonagricul ture,environmentalissuesduetotheintensificationofagriculturallandusessuchaswaterpollution,soildegradation,andrecentlywaterscarcityissues.Soasustainableandholisticplanningandmanage mentoflandresourcesshouldcombineallthesere latedinformationwithefficienttoolsforassessmentandevaluationinordertopermitbroad ,interact…     

High‐resolution national land use scenarios under a shrinking population in Japan

In sharp contrast with the global trend in population growth, certain developed countries are expected to experience rapid national population declines. Considering future land use scenarios that include depopulation is necessary to evaluate changes in ecosystem services that affect human well‐being and to facilitate comprehensive strategies for balancing rural and urban development. In this study, we applied a population‐projection‐assimilated predictive land use modeling (PPAP‐LM) approach, in which a spatially explicit population projection was incorporated as a predictor in a land use model. To analyze the effects of future population distributions on land use, we developed models for five land use types and generated projections for two scenarios (centralization and decentralization) under a shrinking population in Japan during 2015–2050. Our results suggested that population centralization promotes the compaction of built‐up areas and the expansion of forest and wastelands, while population decentralization contributes to the maintenance of a mixture of forest and cultivated land.     

Evaluation and development of sustainable urban land use plans through spatial optimization

Along with rapid global urbanization, cities are challenged by environmental risks and resource scarcity. Sustainable urban planning is central to address the dilemma of economic growth and ecosystem protection, where the use of land is critical. Sustainable land use patterns are spatially explicit in nature, and can be structured and addressed using spatial optimization integrating GIS and mathematical models. This research discusses prominent sustainability concerns in land use planning and suggests a generalized multi‐objective spatial optimization model to facilitate conventional planning. The model is structured to meet land use demand while satisfying the requirements of the physical environment, society and economy. Unlike existing work relying on raster data, due to its simple data structure and ease of spatial relationship evaluation, this research develops an approach for identifying land use solutions based on vector data that better reflects the actual shape and spatial layout of land parcels as well as the ways land use information is managed in practice. An evolutionary algorithm is developed to find the set of efficient (Pareto) solutions given the complexity of vector‐based representations of space. The proposed approach is applied in an empirical study of Dafeng, China in order to support local urban growth and development. The results demonstrate that spatial optimization can be a powerful tool for deriving effective and efficient land use planning strategies. A comparison to results using a raster data approach supports the superiority of land use optimization using vector data as part of planning practice.     

Calibration of cellular automata models using differential evolution to simulate present and future land use

A key issue in cellular automata (CA) modeling is the minimization of the differences between the actual and simulated patterns, which can be mathematically formulated as an objective function. We develop a new hybrid model (termed DE‐CA) by integrating differential evolution (DE) into CA to solve the objective function and retrieve the optimal CA parameters. Constrained relations among factors were applied in DE to generate different sets of CA parameters for prediction of future scenarios. The DE‐CA model was calibrated using historical spatial data to simulate 2016 land use in Kunming and predict multiple scenarios to the year 2026. Assessment of quantitative accuracy shows that DE‐CA yields 92.4% overall accuracy, where 6.8% is the correctly captured urban growth; further, the model reported only 5.0% false alarms and 2.6% misses. Regarding the simulation ability, our new CA model performs as well as the widely applied genetic algorithm‐based CA model, and outperforms both the logistic regression‐based CA model and a no‐change NULL model. We projected three possible scenarios for the year 2026 using DE‐CA to adequately address the baseline urban growth, environmental protection and urban planning to show the strong prediction ability of the new model.     

A GIS for hydrological modelling in the semi-arid, HAPEX-Sahel experiment area of Niger, Africa

During the HAPEX-Sahel experiment (1991–94), water redistribution processes were studied at the meso-scale (10 000 km²) near Niamey, Niger. A project now under way at ORSTOM aims at modelling the regional water balance through a spatial approach combining GIS data organization and distributed hydrological modelling. The main objective is to extend the surface water balance, by now available only on a few, small (around 1 km²) unconnected endoreic catchments, to a more significant part of the HAPEX-Sahel square degree, a 1500 km² region called SSZ that includes most of the environmental and hydrology measurement sites. GIS architecture and model design consistently consider data and processes at the local, catchment scale, and at the regional scale. The GIS includes spatial and temporal hydrological data (rainfall, surface runoff, ground water), thematic maps (topography, soil, geomorphology, vegetation) and multi-temporal remote sensing data (SPOT, aerial pictures). The GIS supports the simulation of the composite effect at the regional scale of highly variable and discontinuous component hydrologic processes operating at the catchment scale, in order to simulate inter-annual aquifer recharge and response to climatic scenarios at the regional scale.     

Using remote sensing imagery to determine the impact of land cover changes on potential runoff for the Mid-Cibolo Creek watershed,Texas

Land cover changes within watersheds have the potential to produce dramatic changes in surface hydrology, namely runoff, in the event of storms. The Mid-Cibolo Creek watershed in south-central Texas has experienced extensive land-cover change in the past two decades due to mass residential development and land clearing in the wake of urban growth along the I-35 corridor. This study determined land-cover changes within the basin using supervised classification to classify land cover from LANDSAT images for the years 1986 and 1999. Changes in runoff volume were then calculated using the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) runoff equation for a series of rainfall scenarios. The results showed that an overall increase in impervious cover and decrease in natural vegetative cover has occurred leading to larger runoff volumes for all storm scenarios. The findings are important for watershed scale urban expansion and land clearing practices as current methods suggest that flood risk is increased.     

Approaches for Linking People,Place, and Environment for Human Dimensions Research

Abstract

Much of the human dimensions of environmental change research emphasize the mapping and modeling of land use and land cover patterns over space and time, and the linkages between people, place, and environment as proximate and distal forces of landscape dynamics. Spatial digital technologies, framed within a GIScience (GISc) context, figure prominently in the characterization of land use and land cover through remote sensing technologies, and in the assessment of social and demographic factors and local and regional site and situation considerations achieved through global positioning systems, data visualizations, and spatial and statistical analyses. Here, we describe some fundamental approaches for linking data across thematic domains, essential for the study of human‐environment interactions. The goal is to generate compatible data sets that extend across social, biophysical, and geographical domains so that the causes and consequences of land use and land cover dynamics might be explored within a spatially‐explicit context.     

Neural networks-based simulation of land cover scenarios in Doon valley,India

Land cover transformation is one of the foremost aspects of human-induced environmental change, having an extensive history dating back to antiquity. The present study aims to simulate the process of land cover change based on different policy-based scenarios so as to provide a basis for sustainable development in Doon valley, India. For this purpose, an artificial neural network-based spatial predictive model was developed for the Doon valley. The predictive model generated future land cover patterns under three policy scenarios, i.e. baseline scenario, compact growth scenario and hierarchical growth scenario (HGS). The simulated land cover patterns mirror where land cover patterns are headed in the valley by year 2021. The result suggests that unabated continuation of the present pattern of land cover transformation will result in a regional imbalance. However, this skewed development can be corrected by altering the current growth trend as revealed in the compact growth and HGSs.     

The Performance of Vector Oriented Data Storage Strategies in ESRI's ArcGIS

The emergence of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) as an important tool in the analysis of spatial phenomena has been mirrored by the evolution of the data models underpinning such systems. When considering vector‐based solutions, such developments have seen a migration from single‐user, file‐based, topological hybrid models to multi‐user database management system (DBMS) based integrated formats, often with no inherent topology. With all these solutions still being readily available, the decision of which to employ for a given application is a complicated one. This study analyses the performance of a number of vector data storage formats for use with ESRI's ArcGIS, with the aim to facilitate the ‘intelligent selection’ of an appropriate solution. Such a solution will depend upon the application domain and both single‐user and multi‐user (corporate) scenarios are considered. Findings indicate that single‐user ESRI coverages and multi‐user ArSDE/Oracle strategies perform better when considering the range of GIS operations used to evaluate data store performance.     

An open source GIS‐based Planning Support System: Application to the land use plan of La Troncal,Ecuador

Planning Support Systems (PSS) comprise a wide variety of geo‐technological tools related to GIS and spatial modeling aimed at addressing land planning processes. This article describes the OpenRules system, a PSS based on a previous system called RULES. Among OpenRules new features are its architecture, based exclusively on free and open source software, and its applicability to all land use types, including rural and urban uses. In addition, OpenRules incorporates an unlimited number of land evaluation factors and a new objective in land use spatial allocation. OpenRules has been programmed in Java and implemented as a module of the free GIS software gvSIG, with full integration between the GIS and the decision support tools. Decision support tools include multicriteria evaluation, multiobjective linear programming and heuristic techniques, which support three basic stages of land use planning processes, namely land suitability evaluation, land use area optimization and land use spatial allocation. The application of OpenRules to the region of La Troncal, Ecuador, demonstrates its capability to generate alternative and coherent solutions through a scientific and justified procedure at low cost in terms of time and resources.     

Effects of climate change on forests of the eastern United States

A multi‐phased approach was used to estimate potential impacts of climate change on forests of the eastern United States. Phase I was at community‐level and Phase II examined selected species, both using three 2 x CO₂ climate scenarios. Geographic information systems (GIS) and statistical modeling techniques were used to manipulate and analyze climate and vegetation data, and model vegetation responses to climate change. The first two stages of the study indicated possible large‐scale alteration of forest communities by future climate change. Although results varied among climate models, several trends were apparent. In northern states of the study area, ranges of several conifers declined significantly and ranges of oaks and hickories moved northward. In central states, ranges of sugar maple and tulip poplar became much smaller, with concomitant increases in ranges of southern oaks and loblolly pine. In . southern states, American beech declined and ranges of southern oaks increased northward. This paper discusses results of the first two phases and current progress of the third phase.     

永善县建设用地变化模拟与分析

土地的可持续利用是社会可持续发展的基础,建设用地变化是其关键.以永善县县城及其周边地区为研究区,以建设用地变化为主要研究对象,以2003年遥感影像以及2009年土地利用现状矢量图为数据源,运用GIS和RS技术,研究了该区过去6年的土地利用变化时空特征.通过挖掘土地利用类型转换规则,利用LCM模型、CA_Markov模型...     

Multiple band digital orthophoto quadrangle data: A source for generating land use maps

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to investigate the use of color infrared‐digital orthophoto quadrangle (CIR‐DOQ) data to generate land use/land cover (LULC) maps and to incorporate them as data layers in geographic information systems (GIS) involving various resource management scenarios. The Danville 7.5‐minute quadrangle located in the southern part of Limestone and Morgan counties, Alabama, was used as the study site. Data for the special CIR‐DOQ were generated by scanning four 9x9 inch CIR aerial photographs at a uniform pixel sample grid of 25 microns resulting in 2 meters ground sample resolution. One‐half of the quadrangle was used to identify training sites for performing a supervised classification of the data and the other half to verify the accuracy of the classification. The CIR‐DOQ data were found to be adequate for using a supervised classification algorithm to differentiate major LULC classes, resulting in a classification accuracy of 93 percent. The superior spatial quality of the data over commençai satellite data affords resource managers an opportunity to more effectively study land cover and surface hydrological properties of an area, soil moisture and surface soil textures, as well as differentiate among vegetation species, using remote sensing techniques. However, caution must be exercised when using multispectral classification techniques to classify mosaicked CIRDOQ data because of the image enhancements used to generate the final product. In its present form, there are some limitations to the use of the data for performing spectral classifications. Hozvever, the high spatial resolution of the data enables even the novice resource planner to effectively use the data in visual interpretations of major LULC classes.