用于气候研究的雪盖模型参数化方案敏感性研究

为了得到一个适用于气候研究简化的季节性雪盖模式最佳方案,必须对雪盖内部的重要物理过程、其与上大气相互作用、相应模型的参数化方案和有关的参数选取以及模型的分层结构进行深入研究.利用作者的雪盖模型(SAST),对其中的一些关键性过程的有关参数化方案(如压实、相变、融化雪水流动及分层方案考虑等)及关键的参数(如雪面反照率、有效热传导系数及持水能力等)进行了分析和敏感性试验,得到若干有意义的结论,为雪盖模式改进提供有用的结论.     

CCM3模式中LSM积雪方案的改进研究(Ⅰ):修改方案介绍及其单点试验

为了改进美国NCARCCM3全球模式中LSM陆面模型中的积雪方案的模拟效果,在Sun等[1]SAST积雪模型的基础上,作了部分修改后,加进CCM3模式LSM模型中.该方案根据格点区域平均积雪深度的不同,把地面雪盖划分为1到3层不等,能在积雪表层和中间层更好地描述温度的日变化和季节变化;较详细地考虑了雪的热传导、太阳辐射的穿透吸收、雪的融化、液态水的储存、渗透和再冻结等积雪内部的主要物理过程;根据Nimbus-7卫星实测雪深资料修改了积雪覆盖度和雪面反照率的计算方案.利用前苏联6个台站1978-1983年的实测积雪资料和大气强迫数据,进行了单点模拟试验,结果表明,新的积雪参数化方案能够较好地再现积雪深度和雪水当量的逐日和季节变化特征,部分提高了积雪参数化方案对积雪的模拟能力.     

CCM3模式中LSM积雪方案的改进研究（I）：修改方案介绍及其单点试验

为了改进美国NCAR CCM3全球模式中LSM陆面模型中的积雪方案的模拟效果，在Sun等SAST积雪模型的基础上，作了部分修改后，加进CCM3模式LSM模型中。该方案根据格点区域平均积雪深度的不同，把地面雪盖划分为1到3层不等，能在积雪表层和中间层更好地描述温度的日变化和季节变化；较详细地考虑了雪的热传导、太阳辐射的穿透吸收、雪的融化、液态水的储存、渗透和再冻结等积雪内部的主要物理过程；根据Nimbus-7卫星实测雪深资料修改了积雪覆盖度和雪面反照率的计算方案。利用前苏联6个台站1978—1983年的实测积雪资料和大气强迫数据，进行了单点模拟试验，结果表明，新的积雪参数化方案能够较好地再现积雪深度和雪水当量的逐日和季节变化特征，部分提高了积雪参数化方案对积雪的模拟能力。     

路面气象数值预报模型及性能检验

该文基于通用陆面模式 (CoLM) 发展了精细化路面参数数值预报模型 (BJ-ROME)。该模型可以预报路面温度、积雪厚度、积冰厚度以及积水厚度。模型不仅考虑了路面的不透水性、相对较低反照率、低热容以及高热导率等特征,还考虑了城市人为热的影响。模型采用北京市气象局快速更新循环预报系统 (BJ-RUC) 产生的气象强迫场驱动,预报时间跨度为24 h,更新时间为3 h。采用北京地区芬兰Vaisala公司路面观测站2009年8月9—24日路面温度及2010年1月3—4日积雪厚度观测结果对模型预报结果进行验证,同时进行了敏感性试验。结果表明:无论是在晴空还是降水的气象条件下,BJ-ROME均能较准确地预报路面温度极值以及日变化。BJ-ROME还可以较准确地模拟积雪厚度的最大值以及随时间变化情况。     

青藏高原雪盖的季节内变化及其影响

回顾了青藏高原雪盖的季节内变化及其影响研究的新进展。高原大部分地区雪盖不稳定且持续时间短,导致高原雪盖具有显著的季节内快速变化特征。局地气温和降水的季节内变化是控制高原雪盖季节内变化的直接原因,这种直接关系是区域大气环流季节内活动的结果。高原雪盖季节内变化还与大尺度大气环流的季节内活动有关,热带季节内振荡、北极涛动和北大西洋涛动引起的大气季节内过程可解释部分高原雪盖季节内变率。高原雪盖季节内变化通过雪-反照率效应迅速对大气施加影响,雪盖造成的冷异常通过大气平流过程影响高原及其下游地区,造成东亚高空急流和东亚大槽增强。由于高原雪盖季节内变化的重要影响,数值预报中高原雪盖的初始场和预报场会影响次季节预报技巧。     

多因子和多尺度合成中国夏季降水预测模型及预报试验

根据青藏高原60个站平均的月积雪深度、热带太平洋Nino 3区月海温和中国160个站月降水量等资料,用小波变换和相关分析,分析了1958～1998年秋冬季青藏高原异常雪盖与El Nino-南方涛动(ENSO)的关系、多时间尺度变化的特征及其与中国夏季降水的相关型式.并取青藏高原积雪和Nino 3区海温的年际变化、年代际变化和线性趋势三种不同时间尺度的小波分量作为预报因子,对我国夏季降水距平作线性回归,建立了相应的预测模型.最后,利用1999～2002年的独立资料进行了预报试验,并在2003年和2004年应用于实际预报.研究表明,青藏高原雪盖与ENSO这两个物理因子彼此具有一定的独立性.它们都是多时间尺度现象,并与中国夏季降水有较好的关系.在不同时间尺度上不仅有不同的相关型式,而且相对贡献也有变化.回归预测模型的拟合情况和预报试验表明,综合考虑前期秋冬季青藏高原雪盖和ENSO这两个物理因子的年际变化、年代际变化和线性趋势作为预报因子建立的预测我国夏季降水距平分布的模型,有一定的预报能力.     

基于加密观测的一次极端雨雪过程积雪特征分析

利用降水现象仪、地面自动站、人工加密积雪深度逐时观测资料及NCEP/NCAR 1°×1°再分析资料,对山东2020年1月5-7日罕见雨雪过程的积雪特征及温度影响机制进行了分析。结果表明:(1)降水量突破同期历史极值导致此次雨雪过程成为极端天气事件,地面影响系统为江淮气旋,冷平流较弱,积雪深度是预报难点。(2)整个过程全省各站的平均降雪含水比为0.46 cm·mm~(-1),低于过去20年间的江淮气旋暴雪过程。(3)积雪深度与高空温度、相对湿度和垂直速度的配置有关,在最大上升运动与90%以上相对湿度的叠置层次内,如果环境温度有利于树枝状冰晶增长则积雪深度和降雪含水比大,而环境温度适合空心柱状冰晶增长的则积雪深度小;云下温度高于0℃使得积雪深度减小。(4)积雪深度与近地面温度的关系表现为:气温低于0.5℃可形成有量积雪;0 cm地温对积雪的影响表现在积雪产生之前,降至0.4℃以下可形成有量积雪;雪面温度在产生积雪前后的2 h内维持在0℃左右,其他时段变化与气温类似。(5)降雪含水比基本上随着气温的升高而减小,在0.5 cm·mm~(-1)以上时一般降雪期间气温低于0.4℃。该个例揭示了积雪深度和降雪含水比的预报需要综合考虑高低空气象条件。     

青藏高原冬春多源积雪资料年际变化尺度上的适用性分析

青藏高原冬春积雪变化具有显著的年际变化特征,其对中国东部夏季降水预测具有一定指示意义。由于特殊的复杂地形,青藏高原气象站点分布稀疏且不均匀,再分析数据和卫星数据提供的高原积雪资料的不确定性是影响和制约积雪变化及其天气气候效应研究中的一个关键问题。本文基于青藏高原台站观测、再分析（ERA5和NOAA-V3）和卫星反演（MODIS雪盖以及IMS雪盖）的多源积雪资料,采用偏差分析、均方根误差以及相关分析等多元统计方法重点检验了多源高原积雪数据在描述积雪年际变化特征方面的不确定性。通过比较不同积雪资料的时空分布和变化特征,以期提升多源高原积雪资料适用性的认知,并为相关研究提供有意义的参考。分析结果表明：（1）就再分析数据给出的积雪资料而言,ERA5雪深资料相较NOAA-V3雪深,对高原站点观测雪深的描述效果更好。除了高原中东部分站点外,ERA5雪深数据的平均偏差和平均均方根误差均较小,而NOAA-V3雪深数据的平均偏差和均方根误差在整个高原范围内均存在一定程度的高估;（2）再分析（ERA5和NOAA-V3）和卫星反演（MODIS雪盖以及IMS雪盖）积雪数据和高原站点雪深均在年际变化特征上具有较...     

1988～1998年北半球积雪时空变化特征分析

利用NOAA提供的北半球近10年(1988～1998)逐周雪盖观测资料，通过引入年或季节累积雪盖周数作为对雪量累积情况的定量衡量，对北半球雪盖变化时空特征进行了分析。结果表明:近10年来，北半球积雪年际变化的关键区位于青藏高原、蒙古高原、欧洲阿尔卑斯山脉及北美中西部，其中青藏高原是北半球积雪异常变化最强烈的区域。青藏高原和欧亚大陆其他地区积雪变化的关联表现为两种不同的时空变化型，第一种型表现为青藏高原地区和其他地区(如欧洲、俄罗斯远东地区)积雪的同位相趋势性增多；第二种型表现为青藏高原地区和中亚地区积雪变化同位相，而和蒙古高原－我国东北地区积雪变化反位相的年际振荡。     

遥感-测站相结合的动态雪深反演方法初探

该文结合2000年专用传感器微波成像仪(SSM/I)的亮温数据和我国观测站雪深资料,提出了一种遥感-测站相结合的动态雪深反演方法,试图用统计关系的时空动态化方案克服理论上亮温与不同类型积雪之间物理关系的复杂性,从而提高测站稀疏区和雪盖边缘区的雪深反演精度。其最大特点在于反演系数并不固定,而随时间和空间变化,较好地改善了单一系数反演方法中积雪物理性质的区域性差异和时间(季节)性差异带来的反演误差。初步分析表明:这种遥感-测站相结合的反演方法所得的积雪空间分布连续性好,在雪盖边缘区和站点稀疏区也能得到较合理的雪深数据;与静态遥感反演法和可见光雪盖面积相比,这种方法克服了它们在华北和华中低估雪盖面积的缺点,积雪面积分布更接近真实场,对西部积雪分布的反演也有一定改善。     

Test of a simple two-layer parameterisation to simulate the energy balance and temperature of a snow pack

Summary  Reasonably simple yet realistic modelling schemes simulating the heat and mass balance within a snow pack are required to provide the necessary boundary conditions for meteorological and hydrological models. An improvement to a one-layer snow energy balance model (UEB, Tarboton etal., 1995) is proposed to better simulate snow surface and snow pack temperatures and, as a result, snowmelt. The modified scheme is assessed against measured snow data from the WINTEX field campaign during spring 1997 in northern Finland, and compared with results from a complex multi-layer snow energy balance scheme. The results show that separation of a one-layer representation into two snow layers and a soil layer enables a more realistic simulation of soil and snow temperatures as well as of the snow surface temperature. The two-layer and the multi-layer snow schemes yielded comparable results for internal processes in the snow whenever the simulation was carried out under similar boundary forcing. The modified scheme is proposed for use as a sub-scheme in meteorological or hydrological models, or as a tool for simulating spatially-variable snowmelt and the surface energy balance during seasonal snow cover. Received November 18, 1999 Revised June 17, 2000     

有关雪盖模型内部及界面过程的参数化方案的敏感试验

In order to develop a seasonal snow model of land surface process as accurately as possible for climatic study, it is necessary to fully understand the effects of important snow internal processes and interaction with air and to get an insight into influence of several relevant parameterization schemes with parameters＇ uncertainty to some degree. Using the snow model (SAST) developed by first author and other one and some useful field observation data, this paper has conducted a series of sensitivity studies on the parameterization schemes. They are relative to compaction process, snow thermal conduction, methodology of layering snow pack and to key parameters such as snow albedo, water holding capacity. Then, based on the results from the sensitivity studies, some useful conclusions for snow cover model improvement are ob tained from the analysis of the results.     

Impact of the snow cover scheme on snow distribution and energy budget modeling over the Tibetan Plateau

This paper presents the impact of two snow cover schemes (NY07 and SL12) in the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5) on the snow distribution and surface energy budget over the Tibetan Plateau. The simulated snow cover fraction (SCF), snow depth, and snow cover days were evaluated against in situ snow depth observations and a satellite-based snow cover product and snow depth dataset. The results show that the SL12 scheme, which considers snow accumulation and snowmelt processes separately, has a higher overall accuracy (81.8%) than the NY07 (75.8%). The newer scheme performs better in the prediction of overall accuracy compared with the NY07; however, SL12 yields a 15.1% underestimation rate while NY07 overestimated the SCF with a 15.2% overestimation rate. Both two schemes capture the distribution of the maximum snow depth well but show large positive biases in the average value through all periods (3.37, 3.15, and 1.48 cm for NY07; 3.91, 3.52, and 1.17 cm for SL12) and overestimate snow cover days compared with the satellite-based product and in situ observations. Higher altitudes show larger root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) in the simulations of snow depth and snow cover days during the snow-free period. Moreover, the surface energy flux estimations from the SL12 scheme are generally superior to the simulation from NY07 when evaluated against ground-based observations, in particular for net radiation and sensible heat flux. This study has great implications for further improvement of the subgrid-scale snow variations over the Tibetan Plateau.     

一次高原强降水过程及其云物理结构的数值模拟

本文利用中尺度WRF数值模式,对2010年8月7—8日发生在青藏高原东部一次强降水过程进行数值模拟,利用常规观测资料、FY卫星云图和数值模拟结果对此次强降水过程的宏微观演变特征和降水机制进行分析。本次模拟选用Milbrandt-Yau(MY)微物理方案,有较为完整的双参数计算过程,较为全面地考虑了各类云物理过程,对云微物理结构的描述和处理精细而复杂。结果表明,此次强对流降水发生在副热带高压与南亚高压相连、中高纬短波槽分裂南下、并与西南暖湿气流相遇形成低涡切变线的有利天气形势下,西南暖湿气流带来大量水汽、降水区存在大量不稳定能量、以及低层辐合高层辐散的高低空配置为暴雨发生发展提供了必要条件。WRF模式较好地模拟出了此次强降水过程的降水落区、降水中心和降水量级,对青海平安和甘南上空云团合并过程、强对流云团范围也模拟较好。对云微物理结构的分析结果表明,此次对流云降水为冷云降水,暖层浅薄,冰相粒子丰富,其中霰粒对过冷水的碰冻能力最强,使得其含量远大于冰雪晶含量,其融化是雨水的主要来源。雪晶含量最少,或与其碰冻过冷水能力较弱有关。     

A new snow parameterization for the Météo-France climate model

Both observational studies and numerical experiments demonstrate the sensitivity of the atmosphere to variations in the extent and mass of snow cover. There is therefore a need for simple but realistic snow parameterizations in forecast and climate models. This study describes a new physically-based snow hydrology for use in the Météo-France climate model, together with the ISBA land-surface scheme. A restricted number of parameters has been added, while preserving a single surface energy budget. The ageing process of the snow pack has been introduced through prognostic equations for snow density and snow albedo. Snowmelt computation has been modified over partially snow-covered and vegetated areas. The new scheme has been validated against field measurements in stand-alone simulations forced by observed meteorological conditions. The results show a strong improvement in the model's performance, thereby suggesting that a simple one-layer snow model is able to reproduce the main physical mechanisms governing the snow pack evolution. Part II of the present study will concern the validation in a 3-D experiment within the Météo-France climate model.     

云微物理过程对台风数值模拟的影响

将中国气象科学研究院（CAMS）混合双参数云微物理方案用于中尺度天气模式WRF,开展了对2013年超强台风天兔（1319）的模拟,通过与台风最佳路径、强度及热带降雨测量卫星（TRMM）资料对比,分析CAMS云微物理方案在模拟台风中的适用性及云微物理过程对模拟台风天兔的影响机制。设计了3组敏感性试验:修改雪粒子质量和落速系数（EXP1）,采用海洋性云滴参数（EXP2）,同时修改雪粒子质量和落速系数并采用海洋性云滴参数（EXP3）。结果表明:EXP1和EXP3由于霰碰并雪速率的增加及减小的雪下落通量,导致雪含量显著降低,同时也减少了整体冰相物的含量;EXP2和EXP3模拟的台风眼区对流有效位能快速减小,再现了前期台风的快速增强过程,路径偏差也最小;各试验模拟的小时降水率总体偏强,EXP3的降水空间分布与实况更接近,明显降低雪粒子含量,并一定程度上改善模拟的台风路径、强度及降水分布等。该结果不但可为改进适用于台风的云微物理参数化方案提供思路,也可加深云微物理过程对台风影响的认识。     

Modeling the transport of nutrients and sediment loads into Lake Tahoe under projected climatic changes

The outputs from two General Circulation Models (GCMs) with two emissions scenarios were downscaled and bias-corrected to develop regional climate change projections for the Tahoe Basin. For one model—the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory or GFDL model—the daily model results were used to drive a distributed hydrologic model. The watershed model used an energy balance approach for computing evapotranspiration and snowpack dynamics so that the processes remain a function of the climate change projections. For this study, all other aspects of the model (i.e. land use distribution, routing configuration, and parameterization) were held constant to isolate impacts of climate change projections. The results indicate that (1) precipitation falling as rain rather than snow will increase, starting at the current mean snowline, and moving towards higher elevations over time; (2) annual accumulated snowpack will be reduced; (3) snowpack accumulation will start later; and (4) snowmelt will start earlier in the year. Certain changes were masked (or counter-balanced) when summarized as basin-wide averages; however, spatial evaluation added notable resolution. While rainfall runoff increased at higher elevations, a drop in total precipitation volume decreased runoff and fine sediment load from the lower elevation meadow areas and also decreased baseflow and nitrogen loads basin-wide. This finding also highlights the important role that the meadow areas could play as high-flow buffers under climatic change. Because the watershed model accounts for elevation change and variable meteorological patterns, it provided a robust platform for evaluating the impacts of projected climate change on hydrology and water quality.     

Impact of cloud microphysical processes on hurricane intensity, part 2: Sensitivity experiments

Summary Seven different microphysical sensitivity experiments were designed with an objective to evaluate their respective impacts in modulating hurricane intensity forecasts using mesoscale model MM5. Microphysical processes such as melting of graupel, snow and cloud ice hydrometeors, suppression of evaporation of falling rain, the intercept parameter and fall speed of snow and graupel hydrometeors are modified in the existing NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) microphysical parameterization scheme. We studied the impacts of cloud microphysical processes by means of track, intensity, precipitation, propagation speed, kinematic and thermodynamic vertical structural characteristics of hurricane inner core. These results suggest that the set of experiments where (a) melting of snow, graupel and cloud ice were suppressed (b) melting of snow and graupel were suppressed and (c) where the evaporation of rain water was suppressed all produced most intense storms. The major findings of this study are the interconversion processes such as melting and evaporation among hydrometeors and associated feedback mechanism are significantly modulate the intensity of the hurricane. In particular an experiment where the melting of graupel, snow and cloud ice hydrometeors was eliminated from the model parameterization scheme produced the most explosively intensified storm. In the experiment where rain water evaporation was eliminated from the model, it produced a stronger storm as compared to the control run but it was not as strong as the storms produced from absence of melting processes. The impact on intensity due to variations made in intercept parameters of the hydrometeors (i.e., snow and graupel) were not that evident compared to other experiments. The weakest storm was noted in the experiment where the fall speeds of the snow hydrometeors were increased two fold. This study has isolated some of the factors that contributed to a stronger hurricane and concludes with a motivation that the findings from this study will help in further improvement in the design of sophisticated explicit microphysical parameterization for the mesoscale non-hydrostatic model for realistic hurricane intensity forecasts.