Thresholds for post-wildfire debris flows: Insights from the Pinal Fire,Arizona, USA

Wildfire significantly alters the hydrologic properties of a burned area, leading to increases in overland flow, erosion, and the potential for runoff-generated debris flows. The initiation of debris flows in recently burned areas is well characterized by rainfall intensity-duration (ID) thresholds. However, there is currently a paucity of data quantifying the rainfall intensities required to trigger post-wildfire debris flows, which limits our understanding of how and why rainfall ID thresholds vary in different climatic and geologic settings. In this study, we monitored debris-flow activity following the Pinal Fire in central Arizona, which differs from both a climatic and hydrogeomorphic perspective from other regions in the western United States where ID thresholds for post-wildfire debris flows are well established, namely the Transverse Ranges of southern California. Since the peak rainfall intensity within a rainstorm may exceed the rainfall intensity required to trigger a debris flow, the development of robust rainfall ID thresholds requires knowledge of the timing of debris flows within rainstorms. Existing post-wildfire debris-flow studies in Arizona only constrain the peak rainfall intensity within debris-flow-producing storms, which may far exceed the intensity that actually triggered the observed debris flow. In this study, we used pressure transducers within five burned drainage basins to constrain the timing of debris flows within rainstorms. Rainfall ID thresholds derived here from triggering rainfall intensities are, on average, 22 mm h⁻¹ lower than ID thresholds derived under the assumption that the triggering intensity is equal to the maximum rainfall intensity recorded during a rainstorm. We then use a hydrologic model to demonstrate that the magnitude of the 15-min rainfall ID threshold at the Pinal Fire site is associated with the rainfall intensity required to exceed a recently proposed dimensionless discharge threshold for debris-flow initiation. Model results further suggest that previously observed differences in regional ID thresholds between Arizona and the San Gabriel Mountains of southern California may be attributed, in large part, to differences in the hydraulic properties of burned soils. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Possible effect of ENSO on annual sediment discharge of debris flows in the Jiangjia Ravine based on Morlet wavelet transforms

The multi-time-scale structures of an annual sediment discharge series of debris flow in the Jiangjia Ravine and the Southern Oscillation index are analysed using the method of Morlet wavelet transformations. The possible effects of E1 Nirio episodes on the annual sediment discharge are discussed by comparing the period variations of ENSO and the discharge. The results show that the annual sediment discharge series of debris flow is related to E1 Nifio episodes. Generally, the annual sediment discharge of debris flow is less than usual during an E1 Nifio episode and debris flow is less active. On the contrary, the annual sediment discharge of debris flows is greater than usual during a La Nifia episode and debris flows are more frequent. There is a relationship between the annual sediment discharges of debris flow in the Jiangjia Ravine and the summer Southern Oscillation index, with both having quasi-periodic variations of 2 and 5-6 years.     

Analysing the relation between rainfall characteristics and lahar activity at Mount Pinatubo,Philippines

The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991 altered the conditions of the surrounding river catchments. Pyroclastic flows and tephra fall were deposited over extensive areas, stripping off the forest cover and burying drainage divides. These recent deposits are very loosely consolidated and generally consist of sand‐sized particles, which commonly mobilize into lahars in response to rainfall of a certain magnitude. Several devastating lahar occurrences have buried settlements covering tens to several hundred square kilometres in a single event. Correlation of storm rainfall intensities and durations with lahar activity as recorded by acoustic flow monitors is used to investigate trends in the initiation conditions for lahar activity. This research confirms that the relationships of rainfall intensity and duration with lahar initiation threshold values are not linear but rather approximate a power relation. Different relations were found for lahar initiation in different years, from 1991 to 1997, as a result of the dynamic changes in hydrologic and geomorphic conditions of the affected catchments. Data from acoustic flow monitors are used to distinguish debris flow and hyperconcentrated flow activity from that of muddy water. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydraulic model tests for propagation of flow and sediment in floods due to breaking of a natural landslide dam during a mountainous torrent

During mountain torrents, large-magnitude floods may result from heavy rainfall and cause the breakage of landslide dams naturally formed by heavy rainfall, earthquakes, and so on. The characteristics of longitudinal spreading of clear water discharge and changes in flow depth must be clarified because the changes in peak depth have not yet been examined in steep-slope torrents and because there are few data on spreading of flash floods and related sedimentation in mountainous torrents. In the present study, experimental data were collected through hydraulic model tests over a rigid bed, and the spreading of water, fine sediment, bed load, and large boulders due to flooding are discussed assuming that flash flooding/debris flows occur in the upstream reach. The effects of changes in flow width, such as expansions and contractions in the flow width, as well as changes in meandering channels, sediment transportation, and spreading flow depth resulting from bores are examined using flume data for a steep-slope torrent. The data obtained in the present study reveal that fine sediment components are transported to the downstream reach if large-magnitude floods occur and that the spreading rate and peak lags of the fine sediment and water level indicate the occurrence of a flood in the upstream reach.     

Determination of the suspension competence of debris flows based on particle size analysis

The determination of the critical particle size between solid and fluid phases, i.e., the suspension competence, is fundamental for debris flow. A method for determining suspension competence based on particle size analysis is presented in this paper. Suspension competence of static experimental water-debris mixtures prepared with the sediment of Jiangjia Gully is -0.025 mm if the bulk density is less than 1,800 kg m-3 and it increases with bulk density of more concentrated mixtures. Suspension competence of natural debris flows in Jiangjia Gully increases exponentially with the bulk density. These two data sets are compared in order to understand the suspension mechanism. It is concluded that turbulence may play a leading role in particle suspension in non-viscous and sub-viscous debris flows, while in viscous debris flows both matrix strength and excess pore water pressure play important roles.     

Variability in rainfall threshold for debris flow after the Chi-Chi earthquake in central Taiwan, China

The purpose of this study is to analyze variability in rainfall threshold for debris flow （critical rainfall for debris flow triggering） after the ML 7.3 Chi-Chi earthquake in central Taiwan in 1999. Two study sites with different geological conditions were surveyed in the earthquake area. Streambed surveys were conducted to continuously monitor debris flows between 1999 and 2006. During the 7-year study period, every debris flow event was identified, and the streambed characterized. Results show that the rainfall threshold for debris flow was remarkably lower just after the Chi-Chi Earthquake, but gradually recovered. To date, this rainfall threshold is still lower than the original level prior to the earthquake. This variability in rainfall threshold is closely related to the mount of sediment material in the initiation area of debris flow, which increased rapidly due to landslides resulting from the earthquake. With the increase in sediment material, the rainfall threshold was lowered severely during the first year following the Chi-Chi earthquake. However, heavy rainfalls mobilized the sediment material, causing debris flows and transporting sediment downstream. With the decrease in sediment material, the rainfall threshold recovered gradually over time. Furthermore, debris flows occurred only in the subbasins that had sufficient sediment material to cause significant movement. Hence, these results confirm that the sediment material in the initiation area of debris flow is a crucial component of the rainfall threshold for debris flow.     

Sediment-charged flash floods on Montserrat: The influence of synchronous tephra fall and varying extent of vegetation damage

On 20th May 2006 the Soufrière Hills Volcano on the Caribbean island of Montserrat experienced a large dome collapse and intense rainfall generated flash floods. The floods had very high loads of volcanic debris derived both from this and previous eruptions and can thus be classified as lahars. The floods reached unusually high water levels and caused substantial geomorphic change in the Belham Valley. Detailed rainfall and geomorphological data, coupled with the precise timing of events and yewitness accounts have facilitated an assessment of the relative importance of rainfall volume and intensity, older volcanic debris, pre- and syn-flood tephra fall and the extent of pre-flood vegetation damage for the behavior of this and subsequent sediment-laden floods in this setting. The change in runoff behavior was controlled by preexisting vegetation damage and synchronous tephra fall and this was critically important in controlling the impact of these flash floods. Although rainfall intensity and volume have some control on flood occurrence they are not the critical control on flash flood impact on the geomorphology in the Belham Valley. A significant conclusion of this study is that the extreme nature of the flash floods was not caused by extreme rainfall (as is commonly believed to be the primary cause of flash floods) but rather it was the result of changed runoff behaviour caused by the widespread syn-flood tephra deposition and importantly the widespread vegetation damage by volcanic-associated acid rain in the preceding weeks.     

The influence of debris flows on channels and valley floors in the Oregon Coast Range,U.S.A.

Debris flows are one of the most important processes which influence the morphology of channels and valley floors in the Oregon Coast Range. Debris flows that initiate in bedrock hollows at heads of first-order basins erode the long-accumulated sediment and organic debris from the floors of headwater, first- and second-order channels. This material is deposited on valley floors in the form of fans, levees, and terraces. In channels, deposits of debris flows control the distribution of boulders. The stochastic nature of sediment supply to alluvial channels by debris flows promotes cycling between channel aggradation which results in a gravel-bed morphology, and channel degradation which results in a mixed bedrock- and boulder-bed morphology. Temporal and spatial variability of channel-bed morphology is expected in other landscapes where debris flows are an important process.     

A clear and present danger: Ladakh's increasing vulnerability to flash floods and debris flows

This preliminary investigation of the recent spate of deadly flash floods and debris flows in Ladakh (India) over the last decade identifies uncontrolled development in hazardous locations as an important factor contributing to loss of life and property damage in this high mountain desert. The sediments exposed in the channel banks and on the alluvial fans of several mountain streams in the area indicate a long history of flash floods and debris flows resulting from intense storms, which appear to have increased in frequency within the last decade. The signposts of these recurrent hazards are being ignored as a growing economy, which is boosted by a well‐established tourism industry, is now driving development onto lands that are susceptible to floods and debris flow hazards. In this science briefing we argue that the increasing vulnerability in Ladakh should be addressed with sound disaster governance strategies that are proactive, rather than reactionary. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development of a thresholds approach for real‐time flash flood prediction in complex geomorphological river basins

Flash floods represent one of the deadliest and costliest natural disasters worldwide. The hydrological analysis of a flash flood event contributes in the understanding of the runoff creation process. This study presents the analysis of some flash flood events that took place in a complex geomorphological Mediterranean River basin. The objective of the present work is to develop the thresholds for a real‐time flash flood forecasting model in a complex geomorphological watershed, based on high‐frequency data from strategically located hydrological and meteorological telemetric stations. These stations provide hourly real‐time data which were used to determine hydrological and meteorological parameters. The main characteristics of various hydrographs specified in this study were the runoff coefficients, lag time, time to peak, and the maximum potential retention. The estimation of these hydrometeorological parameters provides the necessary information in order to successfully manage flash floods events. Especially, the time to peak is the most significant hydrological parameter that affects the response time of an oncoming flash flood event. A study of the above parameters is essential for the specification of thresholds which are related to the geomorphological characteristics of the river basin, the rainfall accumulation of an event, the rainfall intensity, the threshold runoff through karstic area, the season during which the rainfall takes place and the time intervals between the rainstorms that affect the soil moisture conditions. All these factors are combined into a real‐time‐threshold flash flood prediction model. Historical flash flood events at the downstream are also used for the validation of the model. An application of the proposed model is presented for the Koiliaris River basin in Crete, Greece. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Lichenometric dating of debris-flow deposits in the Scottish Highlands

Debris-flow deposits, dated by lichenometry, indicate that the majority of hillslope debris flows in Scotland have occurred within the last 500 years. Progressive weathering and climatic change can be discounted as the prime cause of the increase in the incidence of debris flows. The timing of the increase suggests that it is related to landuse changes in the Scottish Highlands during the 19th and early 20th centuries. Both burning and overgrazing can be cited as potential causal factors.     

Controls on debris-flow initiation on burned and unburned hillslopes during an exceptional rainstorm in southern New Mexico,USA

AbstractUsing observations from 688 debris flows, we analyse the hydrologic and landscape characteristics that influenced debris-flow initiation mechanisms and locations in a watershed that had been partially burned by the 2012 Whitewater-Baldy Complex Fire in the Gila Mountains, southern New Mexico. Debris flows can initiate due to different processes. Slopes can fail as discrete landslides and then become fluidized and move downstream as debris flows (landslide initiated) or progressive bulking of sediment from a distributed area can become channelized and concentrated as it moves downslope (runoff generated). In this study, we have an unusual opportunity to investigate both types of debris-flow initiation mechanisms in our observations of debris flows, triggered by an exceptional rainstorm in the autumn of 2013. Additionally, we compare our observations with those of a dataset of 1138 debris flows in the Colorado Front Range, triggered during the same weather system. We found that runoff-generated debris flows dominated in burn areas, and runoff required to start these flows could be well characterized by the Shields stress. Landslide-initiated debris flows were dominant in unburned areas. Debris-flow densities were tied to total rainfall and precipitation intensities. Like the observations in the Colorado Front Range, debris-flow initiation locations were found primarily in areas of relatively sparse vegetation on south-facing slopes between 25 and 40°, and with upslope contributing areas less than 1000 m². In terms of preferential locations for debris-flow initiations, 2013 vegetation coverage, approximated by Green–Red Vegetation Index metrics, proved to be more influential than the 2012 burn-severity designation. The uniformity of observations between our study area and those in the Colorado Front Range indicate that the underlying hydrologic and landscape patterns of the debris-flow initiation locations documented in these studies could be applicable to the wider southwest and Rocky Mountain regions. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

VOLUMETRIC SEDIMENT CONCENTRATION IN DEBRIS FLOWS

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RHEOLOGICAL PROPERTIES OF VISCOUS DEBRIS FLOWS IN THE JIANGJIA RAVINE, YUNNAN, CHINA

RIIEOLOGICAL PROPERTmS OF V1SCOUS DEBmS FLOWS1N THE JIANGat RAVIN'E, YUNNAN, CmNA*fYuy WANG', Chyandeg JAN', Changzhi LI3 and WeIiliang HAN4Abstract:The rheological ProPethes of natural debris flow are studied using exPerimental data obtained froma formeter bullt by the aUthOrS. The Present study is aimed to addrss the rheological Propenies ofviscous debris flow at lOw shear od. It is found that oversboss effeet and shearbo-thinninPhenomenon chM the viscous …     

Experimental study of debris flow caused by domino failures of landslide dams

The formation of landslide dams is often induced by earthquakes in mountainous areas.The failure of a landslide dam typically results in catastrophic flash floods or debris flows downstream.Significant attention has been given to the processes and mechanisms involved in the failure of individual landslide dams.However,the processes leading to domino failures of multiple landslide dams remain unclear.In this study,experimental tests were carried out to investigate the domino failure of landslide dams and the consequent enlargement of downstream debris flows.Different blockage conditions were considered,including complete blockage,partial blockage and erodible bed（no blockage）.The mean velocity of the flow front was estimated by videos.Total stress transducers（TSTs）and Laser range finders（LRFs） were employed to measure the total stress and the depth of the flow front,respectively.Under a complete blockage pattern,a portion of the debris flow was trapped in front of each retained landslide dam before the latter collapsed completely.This was accompanied by a dramatic decrease in the mean velocity of the flow front.Conversely,under both partial blockage and erodible bed conditions,the mean velocity of the flow front increased gradually downward along the sloping channel.Domino failures of the landslide dams were triggered when a series of dams（complete blockage and partial blockage） were distributed along the flume.However,not all of these domino failures led to enlarged debris flows.The modes of dam failures have significant impacts on the enlargement of debris flows.Therefore,further research is necessary to understand the mechanisms of domino failures of landslide dams and their effects on the enlargement of debris flows.     

CLUSTERING ANALYSIS OF DEBRIS-FLOW STREAMS

The Chi-Chi earthquake in 1999 caused disastrous landslides, which triggered numerous debris flows and killed hundreds of people, A critical rainfall intensity line for each debris-flow stream is studied to prevent such a disaster. However, setting rainfall lines from incomplete data is difficult, so this study considered eight critical factors to group streams, such that streams within a cluster have similar rainfall lines. A genetic algorithm is applied to group 377 debris-flow streams selected from the center of an area affected by the Chi-Chi earthquake, These streams are grouped into seven clusters with different characteristics, The results reveal that the proposed method effectively groups debris-flow streams.     

Investigating the impact of the Chi‐Chi earthquake on the occurrence of debris flows using artificial neural networks

Debris flows have caused enormous losses of property and human life in Taiwan during the last two decades. An efficient and reliable method for predicting the occurrence of debris flows is required. The major goal of this study is to explore the impact of the Chi‐Chi earthquake on the occurrence of debris flows by applying the artificial neural network (ANN) that takes both hydrological and geomorphologic influences into account. The Chen‐Yu‐Lan River watershed, which is located in central Taiwan, is chosen for evaluating the critical rainfall triggering debris flows. A total of 1151 data sets were collected for calibrating model parameters with two training strategies. Significant differences before and after the earthquake have been found: (1) The size of landslide area is proportioned to the occurrence of debris flows; (2) the amount of critical rainfall required for triggering debris flows has reduced significantly, about half of the original critical rainfall in the study case; and (3) the frequency of the occurrence of debris flows is largely increased. The overall accuracy of model prediction in testing phase has reached 96·5%; moreover, the accuracy of occurrence prediction is largely increased from 24 to 80% as the network trained with data from before the Chi‐Chi earthquake sets and with data from the lumped before and after the earthquake sets. The results demonstrated that the ANN is capable of learning the complex mechanism of debris flows and producing satisfactory predictions. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial and temporal diversity for debris‐flow meteorological control in subarctic oceanic periglacial environments in Iceland

Slopes in fjord environments of Iceland are prone to debris‐flow initiation, responding to a wide variety of meteorological triggering factors, such as rain on snow, rapid snowmelt, long‐lasting rainfall or intense rainfall. If all fjord regions have similar debris flows with regards to their magnitude, their meteorological control is diverse both in space and in time. Debris flows in Northwest Iceland are triggered mostly by rain‐on‐snow and long‐lasting rainfall, while snowmelt is more characteristic in North Iceland, and rainfall has a clear impact in East Iceland. Most debris‐flow events occur on a single slope, and only a few are recorded at the same time in different regions. Observations of the threshold values underline the diversity of debris‐flow initiation, occurring with huge amounts of sudden water supply as well as with very moderate ones. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Approaches for defining thresholds and return periods for rainfall‐triggered shallow landslides

Probabilistic thresholds for triggering shallow landslides by rainfall are developed using two approaches: a logistic regression model and Iverson's physically based model. Both approaches are applied to a 180 km² area in northern Italy. For the physically based model a Monte Carlo approach is used to obtain probabilities of slope failure associated with differing combinations of rainfall intensity and duration as well as differing topographic settings. For the logistic regression model hourly and daily rainfall data and split‐sample testing are used to explore the effect of antecedent rainfall on triggering thresholds. It is demonstrated that both the statistical and physically based models provide stochastic thresholds that express the probability of landslide triggering. The resulting thresholds are comparable, even though the two approaches are conceptually different. The physically based model also provides an estimate of the percentage of potentially unstable areas in which failure can be triggered with a certain probability. The return period of rainfall responsible for landslide triggering is studied by using a Gumbel scaling model of rainfall intensity–duration–frequency curves. It is demonstrated that antecedent rainfall must be taken into account in landslide forecasting, and a method is proposed to correct the rainfall return period by filtering the rainfall maxima with a fixed threshold of antecedent rainfall. This correction produces an increase of the return periods, especially for rainstorms of short duration. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

鹅掌河泥石流对四川邛海影响的初步研究

沉积作用在湖泊的演化和消亡过程中至关重要,洪水泥石流的淤积作用对我国西南地区广泛分布的构造断陷湖泊是一个普遍的环境问题．通过调查鹅掌河泥石流发育背景,人类的活动对泥沙进入邛海的影响和对比1988年与2003 年邛海水下地形图得出:在近30年的时间内,鹅掌河洪水和泥石流改沿固定河堤流入邛海,在湖底形成浊流,将更大量泥沙带到湖中．浊流在鹅掌河河口的水下扇陡坡上形成一水下冲沟,在湖底沉积区形成一条长2 km的水下堤．计算发现, 鹅掌河泥石流带入邛海的泥沙远大于一般土壤侵蚀产沙量,其中以1996,1997和1998三年泥石流输入的泥沙量最多．鹅掌河洪水和泥石流对邛海的影响以及水下地形、湖泊基本特征和湖泊环境的变化,应引起人们对邛海保护的高度关注．