气候变化对水循环与水资源的影响研究综述

以全球变暖为主的气候变化已成为当前世界最重要的环境问题之一。气候变化对水循环与水资源影响的研究越来越引起国内外学者的的高度关注和重视。简要回顾了国内外气候变化对水文水资源影响研究的发展历程,着重论述了目前气候变化对水文水资源影响的重点研究领域:水循环要素变化的检测与归因分析、气候变化与人类活动对水循环与水资源影响的定量评估、未来气候变化情景下水循环与水资源的演变趋势预估、气候变化对极端水文事件的影响研究和应对气候变化的水资源适应性管理策略;并介绍了气候变化对水文水资源影响研究中的气候变化情景、水文模拟及陆-气模型耦合等重要技术手段。最后,针对目前研究中存在的问题及薄弱环节,提出未来研究的发展趋势和亟需解决的关键问题。     

水文水资源系统对气候变化的响应

分别从水文系统的降水、蒸发、径流和土壤水分及水资源系统供水、需水和水资源管理等方面综述了区域水文水资源对气候变化的响应,提出了作者的看法。自从工业革命以来,由于人类改造自然界的能力日益增强,使大气中CO₂及其它温室气体的浓度大幅度上升,导致温室效应,使全球气候变暖,对天气系统、生态系统及水文水资源系统等带来重大的影响。     

湿地生态系统对气候变化的响应

气候变化常伴随着区域气温及降雨条件等发生变化,对湿地水文、生物地球化学过程、水质与水循环、湿地能量平衡与湿地生态功能等产生较大的影响。湿地水文条件是决定湿地生态过程的关键因子,气候变化引起的地表积水水位变化直接影响湿地植物优势种群结构的演替及氧化-还原环境条件的变化,导致湿地生态过程的变化及温室气体排放强度和时空分布特征等的变化。气候对湿地结构和功能的影响还包括营养物质和矿物质的循环及食物链的动态变化等。     

中亚天山地区关键水文要素变化与水循环研究进展

天山地处欧亚大陆腹地,是丝绸之路经济带中段的重要水源地.天山地区的水循环系统具有时空差异性大、水源机制复杂、径流构成多元以及水系统脆弱等特点,水循环各环节受陆表格局和气候变化影响显著,水文要素对气候变化响应敏感,难以沿用现有的流域水循环模式阐述其内在机理.结合文献阅读和研究,系统分析了气候变化背景下天山地区关键水文要素...     

气候变化下极端水文事件的研究进展

气候异常变化导致洪涝灾害、干旱等极端水文事件的发生及其增加的水灾害风险正成为人类生存所面临的重大挑战。近年来,开展气候变化背景下流域极端水文事件的变化趋势、发生机理及其对气候变化的响应与预测研究正逐渐受到国内外众多学者的关注。本文从极端水文事件的定义、研究方法、水文极值分布函数、观测事实及模拟研究等方面分析评述了极端水文事件问题的研究现状和研究成果。在此基础上,讨论了研究现状存在的问题并对该领域未来研究方向进行了展望。     

“气候变化与全球变暖对山地、寒地和其他地区水文水资源的影响”国际学术讨论会在拉萨召开

1993年7月25日至7月31日,“气候变化与全球变暖对山地、寒地和其他地区水文水资源的影响”国际学术讨论会在西藏拉萨市举行。本次会议由国际地理联合会全球变化与水文资源响应研究会、中国地理学会、国家自然科学基金委、中科院地理所、西藏水文水资源勘测局、西藏大学、西藏地理学会等单位联合举办。会议由国际地理联合会全球变化与水文水资源响应研究会、石家庄农业现代化研究所所长刘     

岩溶地区人类活动的水文效应研究现状及展望

在全球气候变化背景下,加之岩溶生态系统的脆弱性及敏感性,地表水与地下水交换迅速,岩溶水动力系统对人类活动及其造成的生态环境变化反馈敏感。岩溶地区人类活动导致的植被退化、石漠化等环境问题已对岩溶地区的水文水循环过程造成了严重影响,水资源问题已成为岩溶地区发展的重要限制因素。本文在对岩溶生态系统及水文环境特性分析的基础上,从土地利用变化的水文效应,人类活动对降水—径流的影响、岩溶水资源的开发利用、岩溶地下水污染及水文模型在岩溶地区的应用等方面,概述了岩溶地区人类活动水文效应的相关研究现状与不足,总结了未来岩溶地区人类活动水文效应的5个研究趋势,并探讨了研究中的重点及难点问题。     

从实验水文到水文系统模拟——刘昌明先生水文科学思想学习的几点认识

刘昌明院士是国际知名的水文水资源学家,长期倡导和力行水循环、水环境、水生态、水资源和水灾害的研究,将水文学的地球物理、工程和地理方向相结合,提出了水文循环研究的微观与宏观系统观点和方法,发展了较为完善的"五水"转化的理论模式,构建了全新的分布式水文模型系统,并对华北平原的节水农业发展、"南水北调"工程环境效应、缓解黄河断流的对策等国家重大应用问题,提出了系统性的科学观点和有效的决策咨询意见。本文仅从实验水文学、稀缺资料地区水文预测和水文模型三方面,探讨刘昌明院士跨越50多年的研究工作,从中可以体会出先生研究的系统性思想和不断创新发展的精神。     

黄河流域水资源未来变化趋势分析

黄河水资源贫乏，气候暖干化将进一步加剧水资源的供需矛盾，分析水资源的变化趋势对其合理开发利用等方面具有重要意义。根据黄河的产流特点和水平衡原理，建立了月水文模型，用来模拟天然水 资源的变化；依据假定的暖干化气候方案和气候模型的输出结果，采用水文模拟途径，分析了黄河上中游主要产流区水资源对气候变化的响应及其变化趋势。     

水文地理研究发展若干问题商榷

水问题研究一直是我们国家最重要的课题之一,关系到社会稳定、民生福祉、经济发展等一系列国家重大需求。水文地理是水文学与地理学交叉学科,主要采用地理学原理、观点和方法。陆地表层系统的提出对水文地理的系统性研究具有重要的启发作用。首先,对水文地理学的交叉关联、研究内容、全球水系统和生态水文研究的兴起进行阐述;其次,在总结陆地表层系统论思想的主要倡导者及其观点后,讨论了地理研究综合性和区域性的关系,提出综合性、区域性和时空动态过程机理等“三性”应是水文地理系统的研究思想;再次,基于学科基础理论的扩展,给出深化水文地理时空动态过程机理的系统科学技术的几个案例;最后,讨论了中国水文地理研究的几个重点发展方向,主要包括气候变化与人类活动对水循环过程的影响、生态水文四大平衡动态演变过程机理、水资源可再生性维护、“蓝绿水”的认知意义、水文地理区划与制图技术及智能技术等。     

A total water management analysis of the Las Vegas Wash watershed,Nevada

Climate change, land-use change, and population growth are fundamental factors affecting future hydrologic conditions in streams, especially in arid regions with scarce water resources. Located in the arid southwest within the Las Vegas Wash watershed, Las Vegas is one of the fastest growing metropolitan areas of the country. In the past 30?years, because of climate and land-use changes, it has experienced a decrease in clean water supply but an increase in water demand. To alleviate some of these problems, large amounts of water have been pumped into the city from different sources, such as Lake Mead, and the urban wastewater is treated and returned back to the reservoir for water augmentation. However, in the face of continual global climate change and urbanization in the watershed, long-term planning for sustainable water management is critical. This research was designed to provide a comprehensive analysis incorporating hydrologic modeling, population projection, land-use change modeling, and water management policies to examine the total water balance and management options in this arid and rapidly urbanizing watershed under various scenarios of climate regime, population growth, land-use change, and total water management programs for the year 2050.     

SWAT模型及其应用研究进展

SWAT（Soil and Water Assessment Tool）模型是近几年发展迅速、影响较大的水文模型,主要用于模拟预测各种管理措施及气候变化对水资源供给的影响,评价流域非点源污染等。本文通过对SWAT模型的发展历史及该模型在水文、气候变化、非点源污染和输入参数对模拟结果的影响等几个主要方面的研究,总结了模型的优势,以及在使用该模型时需要注意的主要问题。SWAT 模型在国内的应用主要侧重于水文及非点源污染研究,研究多是以模型作为手段,改进工作不多,建议今后根据研究区域的需要,对模型作相应的改进,以更好地服务于研究项目。     

湿地脆弱性评价研究进展

湿地脆弱性评价是近年来湿地科学及可持续性科学领域的热点和前沿.湿地脆弱性评价研究经历了从湿地脆弱性特征定性评价,到湿地脆弱性定量评价,再到气候变化下湿地脆弱性评价的发展历程.首先,在对湿地脆弱性概念归纳总结的基础上,提出湿地脆弱性是在自然环境和人为压力下湿地退化的程度和可能性.其次,定性介绍了水土流失、水热分配不均、湿地退化等主要脆弱性特征表现;并以脆弱性评价的基本步骤为主线论述了模型法、特征法、综合指数法、EFI评价法、空间分析法等主要研究方法;同时,从不同角度概述了气候变化背景下的湿地脆弱性,总结了湿地水文景观分类法、生物完整性指标法、模型法、空间分析等评价方法.最后,指出湿地脆弱性研究中存在的概念不统一、评价标准不一致、评价指标范围较狭窄、动态研究偏少、定量评价的不确定性等主要问题,提出了完善评价体系、加强动态研究和国内对气候变化下湿地脆弱性的定量研究以及不确定性分析、脆弱性评价与决策管理衔接等湿地脆弱性未来研究的重点.     

Assessing the impacts of climate change on water resources of a West African trans-boundary river basin and its environmental consequences (Senegal River Basin)

The Senegal River Basin (SRB) is a shared watershed in West Africa which includes regions (the upper basin, valley, and delta), characterized by distinct environmental conditions. An important feature of the Senegal River flow volume historically was its inter- annual irregularity, which caused a major water resource constrain. This situation has been accentuated during the long-term drought (1969–1984) in the Sahel zone which highlights the vulnerability of food-producing systems to climate change and variability. SRB is undergoing fundamental environmental, hydrologic, and socioeconomic transitions and represents a good illustration of sensitivity to climatic variations and opportunities for adaptation. This paper aims to study water resources systems under stress from climate variability and change in the Senegal River Basin. The results show (1) through the compilation of available data, information and knowledge (sedimentological, climatical, geological, environmental, archeological, etc.), the chronological consequences of climate change during the past millennium in West Africa, and also (2) an analysis of the recent impacts and vulnerability to climate change in the SRB and finally (3) the adaptation strategies in the SRB in order to identify and resolve problems associated with this water scarcity and to address the potential for guaranteed agricultural production in this narrow geographic area.     

青海北川河流域径流变化的机理研究——基于模型和统计两种方法

气候变化和下垫面变化是影响河道径流的两大驱动力,研究两者对径流的影响有利于深入理解流域水文过程,为水资源管理提供科学依据。鉴于利用不同方法获得的结果存在一定程度的差异,有必要使用多种方法进行交叉验证。论文基于Budyko水量平衡法和新增水库模块的分布式水文模型(DHSVM)法量化了气候变化和下垫面变化对青海省北川河流域径流变化的贡献。结果表明：① 自1960年以来流域出口流量以每年0.037 m³/s的趋势下降,突变年份发生在1969年。② 2种方法的分析结果均表明,年代际尺度上,气候变化对径流影响的贡献率由高到低依次为：1990—1999年>2000—2009年>1970—1979年>1980—1989年=2010—2019年,且下垫面变化是1970—2019年流域出口径流变化的主导因素,对应的贡献率分别为94.58% (Budyko法)和65.68% (DHSVM法)。③ Budyko方法只能揭示流域整体的变化,而DHSVM方法能够体现水文过程变化的时空差异,模型结果表明上中游、下游地区的年平均径流变化分别受气候变化、下垫面变化主导;流域出口处月径流变化则对下垫面条件中的水库调节更敏感。此外,文中就2种方法量化结果差异的原因也展开了讨论。     

新时代自然地理学发展的思考

自然地理学是地理学的基础学科,也是地理学综合研究的基石。本文在梳理自然地理学主要研究进展的基础上,思考了新时代自然地理学的发展方向。在全球环境变化驱动下,自然地理学及其分支学科在传承中得到新的发展。自然地理学近年来的研究进展主要表现为自然地理过程综合与深化、陆地表层系统集成、陆海相互作用和区域生态环境管理应用等方面。自然地理学及其分支学科的发展需要面向全球环境变化和人类需求,探索应用新技术新方法,开展多要素多过程集成研究,发展并完善地理模型,模拟和预测环境变化与可持续发展,服务于国家重大需求和政府决策。在发展过程中,亟待关注以下前沿领域与方向：①地貌学需要重点加强地貌学与全球环境变化及人类活动关系研究;②生物地理学有待深化属性地理学、全球变化生物地理学等前沿领域的探索,连接变化背景下的生物地理空间分布与人类需求;③水文学需要开展多要素、多过程、多尺度的综合集成研究,发展生态水文学、社会水文学、水文形态学等新兴学科领域;④自然地理学有待全方位介入气候变化研究,在气候变化国际重大研究计划、气候变化框架公约等方面发挥更加积极的支撑功能;⑤综合自然地理需要面向国家重大需求,聚焦人地系统耦合研究,在资源环境承载力评估、生态安全格局与生态文明建设等领域作出积极贡献;⑥自然地理学需深化耦合自然与人文要素及过程研究,建立发展复杂系统模拟模型,分析和模拟变化环境下的自然、人文要素耦合机制和陆地表层系统动态变化规律。     

Global and Regional Water Availability and Demand: Prospects for the Future

One of the most pressing global issues currently facing mankind is the increase in world population and its impact on the availability of freshwater. Recent estimates of water stocks and flows through the world's hydrologic cycle and their spatiotemporal variability illustrate the nature of current and projected water disparities throughout the world. As all such problems manifest themselves at smaller scales, a major challenge in freshwater assessments is how to handle this on different geographical scales. Increasing use of water is creating water shortages in many countries that are projected to have significant population increases in the next 25 years. Humankind is projected to appropriate from 70% to 90% of all accessible freshwater by 2025. Agriculture is the dominant component of human water use, accounting for almost 70% of all water withdrawals. Hence, many of the solutions to water-related food and environmental security come from within agriculture by increasing the efficiency and productivity of water use. Many factors significantly impact the increasing water demand, including population growth, economic growth, technological development, land use and urbanization, rate of environmental degradation, government programs, climate change, and others. Demand management, not increasing supply availability, is the realistic way forward. Although, thanks to market forces, the threatened exhaustion of nonrenewable resources has not happened, renewable resources, such as freshwater, remain problematic because they are vulnerable to human overuse and pollution. Climate change adds further risks and uncertainties to the global picture requiring the adoption of adaptive management in water resources based on monitoring and reevaluation. Although climate change may be perceived as a long-term problem, it needs to be addressed now because decisions today will affect society's ability to adapt to increasing variability in tomorrow's climate. If we are to balance freshwater supply with demand, and also protect the integrity of aquatic ecosystems, a fundamental change in current wasteful patterns of production and consumption is needed. Recognition of the links between rapidly growing populations and shrinking freshwater supplies is the essential first step in making water use sustainable.     

气候变率影响下博茨瓦纳河流流量的时空变化

The fourth assessment report of the IPCC highlights that the global average surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.8 to 4.0℃ by the year 2100 compared to current climate. Given that climate is the most important driver of the hydrological cycle, the rise in temperature could cause changes in occurrence patterns of extreme hydrologic events like streamflow droughts. An increase in frequency and severity of these events could pose seri-ous challenges for sustainable management of water resources particular in arid regions. However, the understanding of water resources dynamics and the possible impacts of climate change on these dynamics is hindered by uncertainties in climate change models and com-plex hydrological responses of streams and catchments to climatic changes. Therefore ob-servational evidence of streamflow dynamics at the local scale could play a crucial role in addressing these uncertainties and achieving a fuller reconciliation between model-based scenarios and ground truth. This paper determines spatial and temporal changes in stream-flow volumes and their association with climatic factors based on the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and ANOVA to determine possible changes in streamflow over the years and their relation to climatic factors. Streamflow is generally stochastic highlighting the im-portance of factoring in temporal flow variability in water resources planning. There is no clear evidence that changes in climatic variables are related to streamflow behaviour.     

Water resource formation and conversion and water security in arid region of Northwest China

Climate change and water resource issues are global problems of common concern to the international community, and they are major bottlenecks affecting the eco-environment and sustainable socio-economic development in the arid region of Northwest China. On the basis of results from previous studies, this paper points out that the unique landscape of Northwest China increases the complexity and uncertainty of the climate system. This paper analyzes the key constraints on socio-economic development and ecological security in the region, discusses the impact of climate change on water resources in Northwest China, identifies common themes and the main problems present in research on climate change and water resources in the arid northwest region, and finally, based on the importance and urgency of conducting research on the region’s water resources, proposes scientific problems that need to be addressed: first, the impact of climate change on the formation, conversion and future trends of water resources in the region; second, bidirectional coupling of high-resolution regional climate models and water cycle models of arid region land surface patterns; third, the impact of climate change and human activities on water resources of the arid northwest region. Through consideration and discussion of the above, this paper seeks to further clarify specific areas of research on pressing issues related to climate change and water resources in Northwest China, so as to establish a solid scientific basis for significantly enhancing our ability to respond to climate change and water shortages.