塔里木河流域径流变化趋势及其对气候变化的响应

This paper has studied the change of streamflow and the impact of climatic variability conditions on regional hydrological cycle in the headwater of the Tarim River Basin. This study investigates possible causes of observed trends in streamflow in an environment which is highly variable in terms of atmospheric conditions, and where snow and ice melt play an important role in the natural hydrological regime. The discharge trends of three head streams have a significant increase trend from 1957 to 2002 with the Mann-Kendall test. Complex time-frequency distributions in the streamflow regime are demonstrated especially by Morlet wavelet analysis over 40 years. The purpose is to ascertain the nature of climatic factors spatial and temporal distribution, involved the use of EOF （Empirical Orthogonal Function） to compare the dominant temperature, precipitation and evaporation patterns from normally climatic records over the Tarim＇s headwater basin. It shows that the first principal component was dominated since the 1990s for temperature and precipitation, which identifies the significant ascending trend of spatial and temporal pattern characteristics under the condition of the global warming. An exponential correlation is highlighted between surface air temperature and mean river discharge monthly, so the regional runoff increases by 10%-16% when surface air temperature rises by 1 ℃. Results suggest that headwater basins are the most vulnerable environments from the point of view of climate change, because their watershed properties promote runoff feeding by glacier and snow melt water and their fundamental vulnerability to temperature changes affects rainfall, snowfall, and glacier and ice melt.     

Surface hydrological processes of rock glaciated basins in the San Juan Mountains,Colorado

Glaciers in the western USA contribute summer meltwater to regional hydrological systems. In the San Juan Mountains of Colorado, where glaciers do not exist, rock glaciers serve that function during the summer runoff period. Most rock glaciers in Colorado are located on northern slopes in mountainous areas; however, some rock glaciers in southwest Colorado have different aspects. In this study, we asked how slope aspect and rising air temperatures influence the hydrological processes of streams sourced from rock glaciers in the San Juan Mountains. We focused on three adjacent basins, Yankee Boy basin, Blue Lakes basin, and Mill Creek basin, which share a common peak, Gilpin Peak. Using HOBO® U20-001–04 water-level loggers, streamflow data were collected in each of these basins, below each rock glacier. Air temperature significantly influenced stream discharge below the rock glacier. Discharge and air temperature patterns indicate a possible air temperature threshold during late summer when rock glacier melt increases at a greater rate. The results also suggest that the aspect of rock glacier basins influences stream discharge, but that temperature and precipitation are likely larger components of melt regimes.     

近50 a来乌鲁木齐河源区径流变化及其机理研究

 乌鲁木齐河源区径流是供给中下游地区和乌鲁木齐市的重要水源。通过对河源区3个水文断面（1号冰川、空冰斗和总控）有观测记录以来的径流变化研究,一方面提供径流观测的最新资料,使人们对乌鲁木齐河源区径流近期变化有新的认识;另一方面通过对气候、冰川变化的综合分析,揭示乌鲁木齐河源区径流近50 a变化事实和可能的原因。结果表明：河源区3个水文断面径流自有观测记录以来整体上呈增加趋势,其中总控水文断面径流虽有增加,但不显著。影响3个水文断面径流变化的因素不同,1号冰川水文断面径流变化受控于冰川区热量条件,当消融期气温大于2 ℃时,径流呈加速增长。1号冰川径流不仅包含了冰川对气候变化的瞬时响应,也包含了冰川对气候变化的滞后响应,由冰川物质平衡和面积计算的冰川体积损失量变化较好地验证了径流变化。对于空冰斗融雪径流,降水量多寡是导致径流变化的主导因素,但冰斗区固态降水多,气温亦起着不可忽视的作用。总控水文断面径流大小与气温和降水关系比较复杂,表现为近年来气温和降水增加,径流却有下降趋势,这可能与河源区实际蒸散增强、冰川快速退缩导致径流峰值已经出现、大范围冻土消融导致的地下渗漏量增多等原因有关。     

Distribution features of stable oxygen isotopes in the typical monsoon temperate-glacier region, Mountain Yulong in China

During the summers of 1999 and 2000, sampling was carried out in Mt. Yulong, for the investigation of the spatial distribution of oxygen stable isotope in the atmospheric glacial hydro system and similar results obtained in the two years have confirmed our conclusion. There is an evident negative correlation between stable isotopic composition and air temperature precipitation amount, suggesting that there exits a strong "precipitation amount effect" in this typical monsoon temperate glacier region. There are marked differences between the δ 18 O values in winter accumulated snow, glacial meltwater, summer precipitation and glacier feeding stream. Under the control of varied climatic conditions, spatial and temporal variations of above glacial hydro mediums are apparent. Isotopic depletion or fractionation and ionic changes had occurred during the phase change and transformation processes of snow ice, ice meltwater, flowing of runoff and contact with bedrock. The variation of stable isotope in a runoff can reflect not only its own flowing process but also its different feeding sources.     

SRM融雪径流模型在长江源区冬克玛底河流域的应用

冬克玛底河流域作为青藏高原腹地长江源区典型代表性高寒山区流域,有较大面积的冰川、积雪存在。本文以冬克玛底河流域2005年5~10月的实测水文、气象资料为基础,运用SRM融雪径流模型对不同分带数对融雪径流模拟效果的影响和不同测站气温分别作为气温驱动变量对融雪径流模拟效果的影响分别进行了模拟试验。结果表明：不同分带会对SRM模型融雪径流量模拟产生一定的影响;而不同的气温作为驱动变量对模拟的效果影响很大,这表明SRM模型对气温驱动变量非常敏感。同样根据流域内径流与气温降水的相关分析看到日径流量与气温相关性较好,线性相关系数最好达到0.72,而径流与降水线性相关系数为0.20。根据以上模拟实验和相关分析选择合适的分带和具有代表性的站点气温,SRM模型模拟的两个优度指标最好可达到Nash-Sutcliffe 系数 (R2) = 0.83和体积差 (Dv) = 0.95%。 考虑到SRM 模型对气温的敏感性,利用最终选择的模拟方案并结合气温升高1 ^oC气候情景假设来考虑气温、降水和径流之间的关系。模拟结果表明：气温升高1 ^oC后,(1) 模拟时期内的径流总量由原来模拟的25.5 × 10⁶ m³增加到33 × 10⁶ m³;(2) 冰川物质平衡线从原来的 5600上升到5750米,冰川消融区从5.8 km²增大到13.5 km²,冰川消融量增加,对径流量的贡献明显增大。(3) 气温的升高加速积雪融化并改变降水形态是径流在5~6月变大的主导因素。7~10月份的径流变大则主要是由于冰川消融。     

基于氢氧同位素和水化学的祁连山老虎沟冰川区径流过程分析

基于2012-2013年两个消融期在祁连山老虎沟冰川区连续2 a采集的冰川融水径流、雪冰以及降水样品,分析探讨了冰川区水体介质中氢氧同位素和水化学要素(主要化学离子、pH值、TDS和电导率等)在消融期的变化过程及特征。结果表明:祁连山老虎沟雪冰融水中的氢氧同位素值(δD和δ¹⁸O)表现出明显的消融期随月份波动,先升高再降低的趋势,在7月份表现出高值,反映了冰川消融强弱程度的变化过程。冰川径流中同位素含量与冰雪融水接近,且处于当地降水线上,其主要来自冰雪融水和降雨补给。老虎沟冰川融水径流水化学主要表现为Ca-Na-HCO₃-SO₄和Ca-Mg-HCO₃-SO₄型,其组成特征也表现出随消融过程而变化。对氢氧同位素和化学要素组成在消融期(6~9月)随时间的变化过程进行了分析,表明结合冰川区氢氧同位素和化学要素(包括化学离子、TDS、pH值和电导率等)的组成可以区分雪坑和新雪、河水的组分变化,可以反映冰川融水径流在消融期的变化过程。     

Glacier meltwater runoff process analysis using δD and δ<Superscript>18</Superscript>O isotope and chemistry at the remote Laohugou glacier basin in western Qilian Mountains,China

Stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope has important implication on water and moisture transportation tracing research. Based on stable hydrogen (δD) and oxygen (δ¹⁸O) isotope using a Picarro L1102-i and water chemistry (e.g. major ions, pH, EC and TDS) measurement, this study discussed the temporal variation and characteristics of stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope, chemistry (e.g. TDS, pH, EC, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Na⁺ and Cl^-) in various water bodies including glacier meltwater runoff, ice and snow, and precipitation at the Laohugou glacier basin during June 2012 to September 2013. Results showed that δD and δ¹⁸O in the meltwater runoff varied obviously with the temporal change from June to September, showing firstly increasing trend and then decreasing trend, with the highest values in July with high air temperature and strong glacier melting, which could indicate the temporal change of glacier melting process and extent. Variations of δD and δ¹⁸O in the runoff were similar with that of snow and ice on the glacier, and the values were also above the GMWL, which probably implied that the glacier runoff was mainly originated from glacier melting and precipitation supply. The glacier meltwater chemical type at the Laohugou glacier basin were mainly composed by Ca-Na-HCO₃-SO₄ and Ca-Mg-HCO₃-SO₄, which also varied evidently with the glacier melting process in summer. By analyzing the temporal change of stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope and chemistry in the melting period, we find it is easy to separate the components of the snow and ice, atmospheric precipitation and melt-runoff in the river, which could reflect the change process of glacier melting during the melting period, and thus this work can contribute to the glacier runoff change study of large-scale region by stable isotope and geochemical method in future.     

基于MODIS数据的2000-2013年西昆仑山玉龙喀什河流域积雪面积变化

利用两种卫星影像合成并引入冰川积雪区的方法,对西昆仑山玉龙喀什河流域2000-2013 年MOD10A2积雪数据进行去云处理,分析不同海拔高度积雪的年内和年际变化特征及趋势,结合气象要素,分析其分布变化原因。结果表明：① 低山区（1650-4000 m）积雪年内变化为单峰型,补给期为冬季,而高山区（4000~6000 m）存在“平缓型”春季补给期和“尖峰型”秋季补给期两个峰值;② 就年际变化而言,低、高山区平均、最大积雪面积呈微弱增加趋势,高山区最小积雪面积显著增加,倾向率为65.877 km²/a;③ 就季节变化而言,春、夏、冬三季低、高山区积雪面积年际变化呈“增加—减少—增加”趋势,秋季高山区积雪面积则呈“增加—减少”趋势,而低山区积雪面积在2009 和2010 年异常偏大,其他年份面积变化不大;④ 在低山区,气温是影响春、夏两季积雪面积变化的主因,气温和降水对秋季积雪面积变化的影响相当,而冬季积雪面积变化对降水更敏感;在高山区,夏季积雪面积变化对气温更敏感,而冬、春季积雪面积变化主要受降水影响。     

典型季风海洋型冰川流域水循环过程变化对气候变暖的响应(英文)

Studying the response to warming of hydrological systems in China’s temperate glacier region is essential in order to provide information required for sustainable development.The results indicated the warming climate has had an impact on the hydrological cycle.As the glacier area subject to melting has increased and the ablation season has become longer,the contribution of meltwater to annual river discharge has increased.The earlier onset of ablation at higher elevation glaciers has resulted in the period of minimum discharge occurring earlier in the year.Seasonal runoff variations are dominated by snow and glacier melt,and an increase of meltwater has resulted in changes of the annual water cycle in the Lijiang Basin and Hailuogou Basin.The increase amplitude of runoff in the downstream region of the glacial area is much stronger than that of precipitation,resulting from the prominent increase of meltwater from glacier region in two basins.Continued observations in the glacierized basins should be undertaken in order to monitor changes,to reveal the relationships between climate,glaciers,hydrology and water supplies,and to assist in maintaining sustainable regional development.     

中国西部冰川度日因子的空间变化特征

在冰川与积雪消融研究中,度日模型应用较为广泛,该模型是基于冰雪消融与气温,尤其是正积温之间的线性关系建立的。度日因子是该模型的重要参数,反映了单位正积温产生的冰雪消融量,其空间变化特征对于不同模型模拟冰雪消融过程的精度有较大影响。 本文根据中国西部不同地区数十条冰川的短期考察和观测资料,分析了西部冰川度日因子的空间变化特征,结果表明：由于青藏高原及其周围地区独特的气候和热量条件,西部冰川度日因子具有明显的区域特征。在同一冰川上,度日因子的空间变化较为明显。从冰川类型来看,与极大陆型及亚大陆型冰川相比,海洋型冰川的度日因子较大。总体看来,西部冰川的度日因子由西北向东南逐渐增大,这与中国西部冰川的气候环境变化趋势是一致的,即在干冷的气候条件下,度日因子较小;而在暖湿的气候条件下度日因子较大。     

气候变化对中亚天山山区水资源影响研究

本文结合资料分析和文献阅读,对全球气候变化背景下的中亚天山山区水文、水资源变化进行了讨论分析。在全球升温滞缓背景下,中亚天山山区在过去的10余年,气温却一直处于高位态波动状态;气候变暖及持续高位态波动加剧了山区冰川和积雪等固态水体的消融,导致山区降雪率降低,天山山区降雪率从1960-1998年的11%~24%降低到2000年以来的9%~21%,有97.52%的冰川表现为退缩状态,水储量呈明显减少趋势,减小幅度约为-3.72 mm/a;气候变暖直接影响区域水循环和水系统的稳定性,引起径流补给方式和水资源数量的改变,加大了水资源时空分布的不确定性。天山山区在短时期内因冰雪融水增多,会出现径流量增加现象。但在未来气候持续变暖、降水条件维持不变的条件下,河川径流量将会出现减少趋势。     

Possible change on the runoff in the upper Yellow River basin under global climate change

In this study,the characteristics and changing trends of temperature,precipitation,and runoff in the upper Yellow River basin up Tangnag station are analyzed by using hydrological and meteorological data in the past 50 years from observation stations in the basin.Further,in this study,the evolving trend of runoff in the future decades is forecasted in the basin based on the method of suppositional climate scenes combination.The results indicate temperature variation in the basin has an evident positive relation with global warming,and the precipitation variations are quite complicated in the basin because of differences of located geographic positions during the past 50 years.Runoff in the basin has been decreasing continually since the end of the 1980s because the mean temperature in the basin has been rising and precipitation in the main areas of runoff formation in the basin has been decreasing.Runoff will largely decrease if precipitation decreases and temperature rises continuously,whereas runoff will increase if temperature is invariable and precipitation increases largely;the increase magnitude of runoff may be more than that of precipitation because of the synchronously increasing supply of meltwater from snow,glacier,and frozen soils in future several decades.     

三江源地区气候变化及其对径流的驱动分析(英文)

Based on the precipitation and temperature data of the 12 meteorological stations in the "Three-River Headwaters" region and the observed runoff data of Zhimenda in the headwater sub-region of the Yangtze River, Tangnaihai in the headwater sub-region of the Yellow River and Changdu in the headwater sub-region of the Lancang River during the period 1965-2004, this paper analyses the trends of precipitation, temperature, runoff depth and carries out significance tests by means of Mann-Kendall-Sneyers sequential trend test. Makkink model is applied to calculate the potential evaporation. The runoff model driven by precipitation and potential evaporation is developed and the influence on runoff by climate change is simulated under different scenarios. Results show that during the period 1965-2004 the temperature of the "Three-River Headwaters" region is increasing, the runoff of the three hydrological stations is decreasing and both of them had abrupt changes in 1994, while no significant trend changes happen to the precipitation. The runoff model suggests that the precipitation has a positive effect on the runoff depth, while the potential evaporation plays a negative role. The influence of the potential evaporation on the runoff depth of the Lancang River is found to be the significant in the three rivers; and that of the Yellow River is the least. The result of the scenarios analysis indicates that although the precipitation and the potential evaporation have positive and negative effects on runoff relatively, fluctuated characteristics of individual effect on the runoff depth in specific situations are represented.     

新疆且末绿洲土地利用变化机制与驱动力分析

土地利用与覆盖变化是全球变化研究的重要组成部分,干旱区土地利用与覆盖变化的机制与驱动力又是干旱地区相关问题研究的核心。新疆且末绿洲特殊的MODS背景,制约着LUCC的一系列过程及其规律。LUCC是各种自然、社会、政治、经济和文化因素相互作用的结果。驱动力类型与特征受绿洲时空特征的制约而表现出不同的特征。在区域尺度上,且末绿洲LUCC的自然驱动力,包括了相关区域地壳运动、冰川变化、风沙活动等自然作用过程,热量、降水、温度变化等的气候过程以及地表径流、冰川进退等引起的水文过程的作用。在特定生产力发展水平下,人类的社会经济活动直接影响了LUCC的演变过程及演变趋势。     

SRM融雪径流模型在乌鲁木齐河源区的应用研究

 乌鲁木齐河源区发育现代冰川7条,冰川面积5.6 km²,并有大范围的积雪,冰雪消融期融雪径流对乌鲁木齐河贡献显著。应用SRM（snowmelt?runoff model）融雪径流模型来探讨乌鲁木齐河源区融雪期径流情况,利用度日方法,由流域本身特征及参变量获取方法的深入分析来率定模型参数,应用模拟指标Nash-Sutcliffe系数R²=0.702和积差Dv=6.81%来评价模型表现,研究发现：（1）气温、降水作为该模型的直接驱动变量对模型的模拟较为敏感。尝试对乌乌鲁木齐河源区的气温、降水数据进行IDW插值并进行修正,使得模型模拟精度提高,对模型变量的输入精度问题上提供了新的思路;（2）不同高度带上积雪的度日因子并不是稳定的,而度日因子的选取与调整对模型也非常重要;（3）模型本身的局限性也导致模拟精度的降低。结果表明SRM模型可在乌鲁木齐河流域推广应用,这必将对认识和利用乌鲁木齐河流域冰雪水资源具有重要意义。     

Current Trends in Climate Change in Yakutia

The spatial distribution patterns of climatic changes in Yakutia are considered. For 26 meteorological stations of Yakutia we calculated the linear trend coefficients of climatic characteristics: air temperature (mean annual, January and July temperatures) and the mean annual amount of atmospheric precipitation from 1966 to 2016. Maps of climate change trends were compiled from linear trend coefficients. A spatial analysis of the zonal (regional) peculiarities of the climate of Yakutia has been carried out. An increase in air temperature was established for the 50-year period under consideration. It was found that the annual values of the air temperature trend are positive and, on average, a characteristic trend change interval is 0.3 to 0.6 °C/10 yr. Most of the meteorological stations recorded trends of air temperature with maximum values in winter and minimum values in summer. It was determined that the values of the trends in annual precipitation show different directions, and positive trends occur on more than 70% of the territory of Yakutia. Their maximum corresponds to the mountain-taiga regions of Southern Yakutia. Negative trends in precipitation with values of up to–15 mm/10 yr. are observed in tundra landscapes. The findings show that different regions of Yakutia respond differently to climate change. The trend of an increase in mean annual temperature is largely due to the rise in temperatures during the winter months. The rise in air temperature in Yakutia may be part of global warming. Over the last 50 years there has been an increase in the amount of precipitation in Yakutia as a whole.     

Hydrological processes of glacier and snow melting and runoff in the Urumqi River source region,eastern Tianshan Mountains,China

Hydrological processes were compared, with and without the influence of precipitation on discharge, to identify the differences between glacierized and non-glacierized catchments in the Urumqi River source region, on the northern slope of the eastern Tianshan Mountains, during the melting season (May-September) in 2011. The study was based on hydrological data observed at 10-min intervals, meteorological data observed at 15-min intervals, and glacier melting and snow observations from the Empty Cirque, Zongkong, and Urumqi Glacier No.1 gauging stations. The results indicated that the discharge differed markedly among the three gauging stations. The daily discharge was more than the nightly discharge at the Glacier No.1 gauging station, which contrasted with the patterns observed at the Zongkong and Empty Cirque gauging stations. There was a clear daily variation in the discharge at the three gauging stations, with differences in the magnitude and duration of the peak discharge. When precipitation was not considered, the time-lags between the maximum discharge and the highest temperature were 1-3 h, 10-16 h, and 5-11 h at the Glacier No.1, Empty Cirque, and Zongkong gauging stations, respectively. When precipitation was taken into consideration, the corresponding time-lags were 0-1 h, 13 h, and 6-7 h, respectively. Therefore, the duration from the generation of discharge to confluence was the shortest in the glacierized catchment and the longest in the catchment where was mainly covered by snow. It was also shown that the hydrological process from the generation of discharge to confluence shortened when precipitation was considered. The factors influencing changes in the discharge among the three gauging stations were different. For Glacier No.1 station, the discharge was mainly controlled by heat conditions in the glacierized region, and the discharge displayed an accelerated growth when the temperature exceeded 5°C in the melt season. It was found that the englacial and subglacial drainage channel of Glacier No.1 had become simpler during the past 20 years. Its weaker retardance and storage of glacier melting water resulted in rapid discharge confluence. It was also shown that the discharge curve and the time-lag between the maximum discharge and the highest temperature could be used to reveal the evolution of the drainage system and the process of glacier and snow melting at different levels of glacier coverage.     

珠穆朗玛峰北坡东绒布冰川成冰作用的新认识

冰川成冰作用的研究对于选择冰芯钻取点具有重要的科学意义。前人对珠穆朗玛峰北坡冰川成冰作用的研究,由于缺少高海拔区域的实测资料而具有一定的局限性。文章通过1998年东绒布冰川垭口处(6 500 m a. s. l.)11 m冰芯和海拔6 450 m处20 m冰芯剖面的成冰作用过程研究,认识到由于水、热条件的逐年波动,冰川成冰作用也处于变化之中。珠穆朗玛峰北坡东绒布冰川高海拔区域,在一定的水、热条件下(如气温较低和降水量较大等),再冻结-重结晶作用依然占主导地位,该成冰作用至少在垭口部位是有分布的。而一般在气温较高或降水量较少等条件下,冰川的成冰作用则以冷渗浸-重结晶作用为主。     

西北地区山区融雪期气候变化对径流量的影响(英文)

Water resources in the arid land of Northwest China mainly derive from snow and glacier melt water in mountainous areas. So the study on onset, cessation, length, tempera-ture and precipitation of snowmelt period is of great significance for allocating limited water resources reasonably and taking scientific water resources management measures. Using daily mean temperature and precipitation from 8 mountainous weather stations over the pe-riod 1960?2010 in the arid land of Northwest China, this paper analyzes climate change of snowmelt period and its spatial variations and explores the sensitivity of runoff to length, temperature and precipitation of snowmelt period. The results show that mean onset of snowmelt period has shifted 15.33 days earlier while mean ending date has moved 9.19 days later. Onset of snowmelt period in southern Tianshan Mountains moved 20.01 days earlier while that in northern Qilian Mountains moved only 10.16 days earlier. Mean precipitation and air temperature increased by 47.3 mm and 0.857℃ in the mountainous areas of Northwest China, respectively. The precipitation of snowmelt period increased the fastest, which is ob-served in southern Tianshan Mountains, up to 65 mm, and the precipitation and temperature in northern Kunlun Mountains increased the slowest, an increase of 25 mm and 0.617℃, respectively, while the temperature in northern Qilian Mountains increased the fastest, in-creasing by 1.05℃. The annual runoff is also sensitive to the variations of precipitation and temperature of snowmelt period, because variation of precipitation induces annual runoff change by 7.69% while change of snowmelt period temperature results in annual runoff change by 14.15%.     

Recent signal and impact of wet-to-dry climatic shift in Xinjiang,China

The Xinjiang region of China is among the most sensitive regions to global warming.Based on the meteorological and hydrological observation data,the regional wet-to-dry cli-mate regime shifts in Xinjiang were analyzed and the impacts of climatic shift on the eco-hydrological environment of Xinjiang were assessed in this study.The results showed that temperature and precipitation in Xinjiang have increased since the mid-1980s,showing a warming-wetting trend.However,drought frequency and severity significantly increased after 1997.The climate of Xinjiang experienced an obvious shift from a warm-wet to a warm-dry regime in 1997.Since the beginning of the 21st century,extreme temperatures and the number of high temperature days have significantly increased,the start date of high temper-ature has advanced,and the end date of high temperature has delayed in Xinjiang.In addition,the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation have significantly increased.Conse-quently,regional ecology and water resources have been impacted by climatic shift and ex-treme climate in Xinjiang.In response,satellite-based normalized difference vegetation index showed that,since the 1980s,most regions of Xinjiang experienced a greening trend and vegetation browning after 1997.The soil moisture in Xinjiang has significantly decreased since the late 1990s,resulting in adverse ecological effects.Moreover,the response of river runoff to climatic shift is complex and controlled by the proportion of snowmelt to the runoff.Runoff originating from the Tianshan Mountains showed a positive response to the regional wet-to-dry shift,whereas that originating from the Kunlun Mountains showed no obvious re-sponse.Both climatic shift and increased climate extremes in Xinjiang have led to intensifi-cation of drought and aggravation of instability of water circulation systems and ecosystem.This study provides a scientific basis to meet the challenges of water resource utilization and ecological risk management in the Xinjiang region of China.