A 20-year coupled ocean-sea ice-atmosphere variability mode in the North Atlantic in an AOGCM

In order to understand potential predictability of the ocean and climate at the decadal time scales, it is crucial to improve our understanding of internal variability at this time scale. Here, we describe a 20-year mode of variability found in the North Atlantic in a 1,000-year pre-industrial simulation of the IPSL-CM5A-LR climate model. This mode involves the propagation of near-surface temperature and salinity anomalies along the southern branch of the subpolar gyre, leading to anomalous sea-ice melting in the Nordic Seas, which then forces sea-level pressure anomalies through anomalous surface atmospheric temperatures. The wind stress associated to this atmospheric structure influences the strength of the East Greenland Current across the Denmark Strait, which, in turn, induces near-surface temperature and salinity anomalies of opposite sign at the entrance of the Labrador Sea. This starts the second half of the cycle after approximatively 10 years. The time scale of the cycle is thus essentially set by advection of tracers along the southern branch of the subpolar gyre, and by the time needed for anomalous East Greenland Current to accumulate heat and freshwater anomalies at the entrance of the Labrador Sea. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) does not play a dominant role in the mode that is confined in the subpolar North Atlantic, but it also has a 20-year preferred timescale. This is due to the influence of the propagating salinity anomalies on the oceanic deep convection. The existence of this preferred timescale has important implications in terms of potential predictability of the North Atlantic climate in the model, although its realism remains questionable and is discussed.     

Quantifying Arctic contributions to climate predictability in a regional coupled ocean-ice-atmosphere model

The relative importance of regional processes inside the Arctic climate system and the large scale atmospheric circulation for Arctic interannual climate variability has been estimated with the help of a regional Arctic coupled ocean-ice-atmosphere model. The study focuses on sea ice and surface climate during the 1980s and 1990s. Simulations agree reasonably well with observations. Correlations between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index and the summer Arctic sea ice thickness and summer sea ice extent are found. Spread of sea ice extent within an ensemble of model runs can be associated with a surface pressure gradient between the Nordic Seas and the Kara Sea. Trends in the sea ice thickness field are widely significant and can formally be attributed to large scale forcing outside the Arctic model domain. Concerning predictability, results indicate that the variability generated by the external forcing is more important in most regions than the internally generated variability. However, both are in the same order of magnitude. Local areas such as the Northern Greenland coast together with Fram Straits and parts of the Greenland Sea show a strong importance of internally generated variability, which is associated with wind direction variability due to interaction with atmospheric dynamics on the Greenland ice sheet. High predictability of sea ice extent is supported by north-easterly winds from the Arctic Ocean to Scandinavia.     

Response of the overturning circulation to high-latitude fresh-water perturbations in the North Atlantic

Studies have suggested that sea-ice cover east and west of Greenland fluctuates out-of phase as a part of the Atlantic decadal climate variability, and greater changes are possible under global warming conditions. In this study, the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) to the distribution of surface fresh-water flux is explored using a global isopycnal ocean model. An Arctic ice related fresh-water flux of 0.1 Sv entering the Nordic Seas is shown to reduce the maximum overturning by 1 to 2 Sv (10⁶ m³ s^–1). A further decrease of 3 to 5 Sv in the MOC is observed when the fresh-water flux is shifted from the Fram Strait to the southern Baffin Bay area. Surprisingly, the salinity in much of the upper Nordic Seas actually increases when the Arctic fresh-water source is the strongest there, as a result of enhanced global overturning. It reflects the great influence of Labrador Sea convection on this models MOC. By applying a weaker surface fresh-water transport perturbation (0.02 Sv) on the Baffin Bay area and therefore perturbing the Labrador Sea Water (LSW) formation, we have also investigated the interaction between the overflows across the Greenland–Scotland Ridge and the LSW and find that, with the same surface forcing conditions in the Nordic Seas, volume transport of the overflows weakens when the LSW formation intensifies.     

On the seesaw in interannual variability of upper ocean heat advection between the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre and the Nordic Seas

In this study we investigate the interannual variability of the heat content of the upper North Atlantic and the main factors, which influence the observed variability: the ocean-atmosphere heat exchange and the ocean heat transport. The data from the combined in situ and satellite dataset ARMOR-3D, and from the ocean reanalyzes ORAS5 and SODA3 (two versions) show a similar decadal interannual variability of the heat content, as well as of oceanic heat transports the study regions, though the mean values may differ. The observed variations are linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI). The current velocity of the North Atlantic, East Greenland and Labrador currents of the Subpolar Gyre increases with the NAOI, but the velocity of the Irminger and West Greenland currents decreases. This forms a seesaw of heat advection by the North Atlantic Current between the Subpolar Gyre and Nordic Seas. In the Subpolar gyre during the periods of high NAOI, this negative anomaly of the oceanic heat convergence adds to the intensified sea-surface heat release to the atmosphere, together effectively reducing the upper ocean heat content. The upper ocean heat content of the Norwegian Sea shows practically no link to the NAOI, in spite of a somewhat larger oceanic heat flux across its southern boundary linked to high NAOI.     

A model-based study of ice and freshwater transport variability along both sides of Greenland

We investigate some aspects of the variability of the Arctic freshwater content during the 1965–2002 period using the DRAKKAR eddy admitting global ocean/sea-ice model (12 km resolution in the Arctic). A comparison with recent mooring sections shows that the model realistically represents the major advective exchanges with the Arctic basin, through Bering, Fram and Davis Straits, and the Barents Sea. This allows the separate contributions of the inflows and outflows across each section to be quantified. In the model, the Arctic freshwater content variability is explained by the sea-ice flux at Fram and the combined variations of ocean freshwater inflow (at Bering) and outflow (at Fram and Davis). At all routes, except trough Fram Strait, the freshwater transport variability is mainly accounted for by the liquid component, with small contributions from the sea-ice flux. The ocean freshwater transport variability through both Davis and Fram is controlled by the variability of the export branch (Baffin Island Current and East Greenland Current, respectively), the variability of the inflow branches playing a minor role. We examine the respective role of velocity and salinity fluctuations in the variability of the ocean freshwater transport. Fram and Davis Straits offer a striking contrast in this regard. Freshwater transport variations across Davis Strait are completely determined by the variations of the total volume flux (0.91 correlation). On the other hand, the freshwater transport through Fram Strait depends both on variations of volume transport and salinity. As a result, there is no significant correlation between the variability of freshwater flux at Fram and Davis, although the volume transports on each side of Greenland are strongly anti-correlated (−0.84). Contrary to Davis Strait, the salinity of water carried by the East Greenland Current through Fram Strait varies strongly due to the ice-ocean flux north of Greenland.     

Formation and pathways of North Atlantic Deep Water in a coupled ice–ocean model of the Arctic–North Atlantic Oceans

We investigate the formation process and pathways of deep water masses in a coupled ice–ocean model of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans. The intent is to determine the relative roles of these water masses from the different source regions (Arctic Ocean, Nordic Seas, and Subpolar Atlantic) in the meridional overturning circulation. The model exhibits significant decadal variability in the deep western boundary current and the overturning circulation. We use detailed diagnostics to understand the process of water mass formation in the model and the resulting effects on the North Atlantic overturning circulation. Particular emphasis is given to the multiple sources of North Atlantic Deep Water, the dominant deep water masses of the world ocean. The correct balance of Labrador Sea, Greenland Sea and Norwegian Sea sources is difficult to achieve in climate models, owing to small-scale sinking and convection processes. The global overturning circulation is described as a function of potential temperature and salinity, which more clearly signifies dynamical processes and clarifies resolution problems inherent to the high latitude oceans. We find that fluxes of deep water masses through various passages in the model are higher than observed estimates. Despite the excessive volume flux, the Nordic Seas overflow waters are diluted by strong mixing and enter the Labrador Sea at a lighter density. Through strong subpolar convection, these waters along with other North Atlantic water masses are converted into the densest waters [similar density to Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW)] in the North Atlantic. We describe the diminished role of salinity in the Labrador Sea, where a shortage of buoyant surface water (or excess of high salinity water) leads to overly strong convection. The result is that the Atlantic overturning circulation in the model is very sensitive to the surface heat flux in the Labrador Sea and hence is correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. As strong subpolar convection is found in other models, we discuss broader implications.     

Simulation of the interannual variability of the wind-driven Arctic sea-ice cover during 1958–1998

A thermodynamic-dynamic sea-ice model based on a granular material rheology developed by Tremblay and Mysak is used to study the interannual variability of the Arctic sea-ice cover during the 41-year period 1958–98. Monthly wind stress forcing derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis data is used to produce the year-to-year variations in the sea-ice circulation and thickness. We focus on analyzing the variability of the sea-ice volume in the Arctic Basin and the subsequent changes in sea-ice export into the Greenland Sea via Fram Strait. The relative contributions of the Fram Strait sea-ice thickness and velocity anomalies to the sea-ice export anomalies are first investigated, and the former is shown to be particularly important during several large export events. The sea-ice export anomalies for these events are next linked to prior sea-ice volume anomalies in the Arctic Basin. The origin and evolution of the sea-ice volume anomalies are then related to the sea-ice circulation and atmospheric forcing patterns in the Arctic. Large sea-ice export anomalies are generally preceded by large volume anomalies formed along the East Siberian coast due to anomalous winds which occur when the Arctic High is centered closer than usual to this coastal area. When the center of this High relocates over the Beaufort Sea and the Icelandic Low extends far into the Arctic Basin, the ice volume anomalies are transported to the Fram Strait region via the Transpolar Drift Stream. Finally, the link between the sea-ice export and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is briefly discussed. The overall results from this study show that the Arctic Basin and its ice volume anomalies must be considered in order to fully understand the export through Fram Strait. Received: 27 January 1999 / Accepted: 8 July 1999     

北极海冰变化的时间和空间型

利用 4 4a(195 1～ 1994年 )北极海冰密度逐月资料 ,分析提出了一种与北极冰自然季节变化相吻合的分季法 ,并根据这种分季法 ,使用EOF分解 ,揭示了北极各季海冰面积异常的特征空间型及其对应的时间变化尺度。结果表明 :(1)北极冰面积异常变化的关键区 ,冬季 (2～ 4月 )主要位于北大西洋一侧的格陵兰海、巴伦支海和戴维斯海峡以及北太平洋一侧的鄂霍次克海和白令海 ,夏季 (8～ 10月 )则主要限于从喀拉海、东西伯利亚海、楚科奇海到波佛特海的纬向带状区域内 ,格陵兰海和巴伦支海是北极海冰面积异常变化的最重要区域 ;(2 )春 (5～ 7月 )、秋 (11月～次年 1月 )季各主要海区海冰面积异常基本呈同相变化 ,夏季东西伯利亚海、楚科奇海、波佛特海一带海冰面积异常和喀拉海呈反相变化 ,而冬季巴伦支海、格陵兰海海冰面积异常和戴维斯海峡、拉布拉多海、白令海、鄂霍次克海的海冰变化呈反相变化 ;(3)北极冰总面积过去 4 4a来确实经历了一种趋势性的减少 ,并且叠加在这种趋势变化之上的是年代尺度变化 ,其中春季 (5～ 7月 )海冰面积异常变化对年平均北极冰总面积异常变化作出了主要贡献 ;(4)位于北太平洋一侧极冰面积异常型基本具有半年的持续性 ,而位于北大西洋一侧极冰面积异常型具有半年至一年的持续性     

Causes and impacts of changes in the Arctic freshwater budget during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries in an AOGCM

The fourth version of the atmosphere-ocean general circulation (AOGCM) model developed at the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL-CM4) is used to investigate the mechanisms influencing the Arctic freshwater balance in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing. The freshwater influence on the interannual variability of deep winter oceanic convection in the Nordic Seas is also studied on the basis of correlation and regression analyses of detrended variables. The model shows that the Fram Strait outflow, which is an important source of freshwater for the northern North Atlantic, experiences a rapid and strong transition from a weak state toward a relatively strong state during 1990–2010. The authors propose that this climate shift is triggered by the retreat of sea ice in the Barents Sea during the late twentieth century. This sea ice reduction initiates a positive feedback in the atmosphere-sea ice-ocean system that alters both the atmospheric and oceanic circulations in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN)-Barents Seas sector. Around year 2080, the model predicts a second transition threshold beyond which the Fram Strait outflow is restored toward its original weak value. The long-term freshening of the GIN Seas is invoked to explain this rapid transition. It is further found that the mechanism of interannual changes in deep mixing differ fundamentally between the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. This difference is caused by the dominant influence of freshwater over the twenty-first century. In the GIN Seas, the interannual changes in the liquid freshwater export out of the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait combined with the interannual changes in the liquid freshwater import from the North Atlantic are shown to have a major influence in driving the interannual variability of the deep convection during the twenty-first century. South of Iceland, the other region of deep water renewal in the model, changes in freshwater import from the North Atlantic constitute the dominant forcing of deep convection on interannual time scales over the twenty-first century.     

Interdecadal climate variability in the subpolar North Atlantic

The statistical relationships between various components of the subpolar North Atlantic air-sea-ice climate system are reexamined in order to investigate potential processes involved in interdecadal climate variability. It is found that sea surface temperature anomalies concentrated in the Labrador Sea region have a strong impact upon atmospheric sea level pressure anomalies over Greenland, which in turn influence the transport of freshwater and ice anomalies out of the Arctic Ocean, via Fram Strait. These freshwater and ice anomalies are advected around the subpolar gyre into the Labrador Sea affecting convection and the formation of Labrador Sea Water. This has an impact upon the transport of North Atlantic Current water into the subpolar gyre and thus, also upon sea surface temperatures in the region. An interdecadal negative feedback loop is therefore proposed as an internal source of climate variability within the subpolar North Atlantic. Through the lags associated with the correlations between different climatic components, observed horizontal advection time scales, and the use of Boolean delay equation models, the time scale for one cycle of this feedback loop is determined to have a period of about 21 years.     

Simulation of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in an atmosphere–ocean global coupled model. Part I: a mechanism governing the variability of ocean convection in a preindustrial experiment

A preindustrial climate experiment was conducted with the third version of the CNRM global atmosphere–ocean–sea ice coupled model (CNRM-CM3) for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4). This experiment is used to investigate the main physical processes involved in the variability of the North Atlantic ocean convection and the induced variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). Three ocean convection sites are simulated, in the Labrador, Irminger and Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian (GIN) Seas in agreement with observations. A mechanism linking the variability of the Arctic sea ice cover and convection in the GIN Seas is highlighted. Contrary to previous suggested mechanisms, in CNRM-CM3 the latter is not modulated by the variability of freshwater export through Fram Strait. Instead, the variability of convection is mainly driven by the variability of the sea ice edge position in the Greenland Sea. In this area, the surface freshwater balance is dominated by the freshwater input due to the melting of sea ice. The ice edge position is modulated either by northwestward geostrophic current anomalies or by an intensification of northerly winds. In the model, stronger than average northerly winds force simultaneous intense convective events in the Irminger and GIN Seas. Convection interacts with the thermohaline circulation on timescales of 5–10 years, which translates into MOC anomalies propagating southward from the convection sites.     

Decadal fingerprints of freshwater discharge around Greenland in a multi-model ensemble

The recent increase in the rate of the Greenland ice sheet melting has raised with urgency the question of the impact of such a melting on the climate. As former model projections, based on a coarse representation of the melting, show very different sensitivity to this melting, it seems necessary to consider a multi-model ensemble to tackle this question. Here we use five coupled climate models and one ocean-only model to evaluate the impact of 0.1 Sv (1 Sv = 10⁶ m³/s) of freshwater equally distributed around the coast of Greenland during the historical era 1965–2004. The ocean-only model helps to discriminate between oceanic and coupled responses. In this idealized framework, we find similar fingerprints in the fourth decade of hosing among the models, with a general weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Initially, the additional freshwater spreads along the main currents of the subpolar gyre. Part of the anomaly crosses the Atlantic eastward and enters into the Canary Current constituting a freshwater leakage tapping the subpolar gyre system. As a consequence, we show that the AMOC weakening is smaller if the leakage is larger. We argue that the magnitude of the freshwater leakage is related to the asymmetry between the subpolar-subtropical gyres in the control simulations, which may ultimately be a primary cause for the diversity of AMOC responses to the hosing in the multi-model ensemble. Another important fingerprint concerns a warming in the Nordic Seas in response to the re-emergence of Atlantic subsurface waters capped by the freshwater in the subpolar gyre. This subsurface heat anomaly reaches the Arctic where it emerges and induces a positive upper ocean salinity anomaly by introducing more Atlantic waters. We found similar climatic impacts in all the coupled ocean–atmosphere models with an atmospheric cooling of the North Atlantic except in the region around the Nordic Seas and a slight warming south of the equator in the Atlantic. This meridional gradient of temperature is associated with a southward shift of the tropical rains. The free surface models also show similar sea-level fingerprints notably with a comma-shape of high sea-level rise following the Canary Current.     

Simultaneous winter sea‐ice and atmospheric circulation anomaly patterns

Abstract

This study looks at simultaneous changes in atmospheric circulation and extremes in sea‐ice cover during winter. Thirty‐six years of ice‐cover data and 100‐kPa height and 50–100‐kPa thickness data are used. For the entire Arctic, the study found a general weakening of the Aleutian and Icelandic lows for heavy (i.e. severe) compared with light sea‐ice conditions suggesting reduced surface heating as a possible cause. The weakening of the two lows would also reduce meridional atmospheric circulation and poleward heat transport into the Arctic. The study also looks at three regions of high sea ice and atmospheric variability: the Bering Sea, the Davis Strait/Labrador Sea and the Greenland Sea. For the Bering Sea, heavy sea‐ice conditions were accompanied by weakening and westward displacement of the Aleutian Low again suggesting reduced surface heating and the formation of a secondary low in the Gulf of Alaska. This change in circulation is consistent with increased cold air advection over the Bering Sea and changes in storm tracks and meridional heat transport found in other studies. For the Davis Strait/Labrador Sea, heavy ice‐cover winters were accompanied by intensification of the Icelandic Low suggesting atmospheric temperature and wind advection and associated changes in ocean currents as the main cause of heavy ice. For the Greenland Sea no statistically significant difference was found. It is felt that this may be due to the important role that ice export through Fram Strait and ocean currents play in determining ice extent in this region.     

Sensitivity of last glacial maximum climate to sea ice conditions in the Nordic Seas

Published reconstructions of last glacial maximum (LGM) sea surface temperatures and sea ice extent differ significantly. We here test the sensitivity of simulated North Atlantic climates to two different reconstructions by using these reconstructions as boundary conditions for model experiments. An atmospheric general circulation model has been used to perform two simulations of the (LGM) and a modern-day control simulation. Standard (CLIMAP) reconstructions of sea ice and sea surface temperatures have been used for the first simulation, and a set of new reconstructions in the Nordic Seas/Northern Atlantic have been used for the second experiment. The new reconstruction is based on 158 core samples, and represents ice-free conditions during summer in the Nordic Seas, with accordingly warmer sea surface temperatures and less extensive sea ice during winter as well. The simulated glacial climate is globally 5.7 K colder than modern day, with the largest changes at mid and high latitudes. Due to more intense Hadley circulation, the precipitation at lower latitudes has increased in the simulations of the LGM. Relative to the simulation with the standard CLIMAP reconstructions, reduction of the sea ice in the North Atlantic gives positive local responses in temperature, precipitation and reduction of the sea level pressure. Only very weak signatures of the wintertime Icelandic Low occur when the standard CLIMAP sea surface temperature reconstruction is used as the lower boundary condition in LGM. With reduced sea ice conditions in the Nordic Seas, the Icelandic Low becomes more intense and closer to its present structure. This indicates that thermal forcing is an important factor in determining the strength and position of the Icelandic Low. The Arctic Oscillation is the most dominant large scale variability feature on the Northern Hemisphere in modern day winter climate. In the simulation of the LGM with extensive sea ice this pattern is significantly changed and represents no systematic large scale variability over the North Atlantic. Reduction of the North Atlantic sea ice extent leads to stronger variability in monthly mean sea level pressure in winter. The synoptic variability appears at a lower level in the simulation when standard reconstructions of the sea surface in the LGM are used. A closer inspection of storm tracks in this model experiment shows that that the synoptic lows follow a narrow band along the ice edge during winter. The trajectories of synoptic lows are not constrained to the sea ice edge to the same degree when the sea ice extent is reduced. Seasonally open waters in the Nordic Seas in the new reconstruction apparently act as a moisture source, consistent with the current understanding of the rapid growth of the Fennoscandian and Barents Ice Sheets, during the LGM. The signal from the intensified thermal forcing in the North Atlantic in Boreal winter is carried zonally by upper tropospheric waves, and thus generates non-local responses to the changed sea ice cover.     

A possible feedback mechanism involving the Arctic freshwater, the Arctic sea ice, and the North Atlantic Drift

Model studies point to enhanced warming and to increased freshwater fluxes to high northern latitudes in response to global warming. In order to address possible feedbacks in the ice-ocean system in response to such changes, the combined effect of increased freshwater input to the Arctic Ocean and Arctic warming--the latter manifested as a gradual melting of the Arctic sea ice--is examined using a 3-D isopycnic coordinate ocean general circulation model. A suite of three idealized experiments is carried out: one control integration, one integration with a doubling of the modern Arctic river runoff, and a third more extreme case, where the river runoff is five times the modern value. In the two freshwater cases, the sea ice thickness is reduced by 1.5-2 m in the central Arctic Ocean over a 50-year period. The modelled ocean response is qualitatively the same for both perturbation experiments: freshwater propagates into the Atlantic Ocean and the Nordic Seas, leading to an initial weakening of the North Atlantic Drift.Furthermore, changes in the geostrophic currents in the central Arctic and melting of the Arctic sea ice lead to an intensified Beaufort Gyre, which in turn increases the southward volume transport through the Canadian Archipelago. To compensate for this southward transport of mass, more warm and saline Atlantic water is carried northward with the North Atlantic Drift. It is found that the increased transport of salt into the northern North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas tends to counteract the impact of the increased freshwater originating from the Arctic, leading to a stabilization of the North Atlantic Drift.     

Convection induced long term freshening of the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean

This paper is mainly concerned with the understanding and attribution of the recent observed freshening trend in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean. From previous coupled model studies and an analysis of the long HadCM3 control simulation, it seems unlikely that this freshening trend is a direct consequence of anthropogenically forced climate change. It is shown in this paper that the subpolar North Atlantic can be freshened to the observed degree without invoking substantial large-scale surface freshwater flux changes. The source of freshening can come from a freshwater redistribution within the Arctic/subpolar North Atlantic. The redistribution (involving both liquid water and sea ice) is carried by a perturbed ocean circulation change in the subpolar seas and triggered by deep convection in the Labrador Sea. The freshening can be widespread but mainly in the north and northwest of the subpolar North Atlantic. A sustained 30–40 years freshening trend can be easily identified in specific locations such as the Labrador Sea or in the basin wide integral of freshwater storage. At the peak, the model subpolar North Atlantic can hold around 10,000 km³ of extra freshwater. An analysis of 1,400 years HadCM3 control simulation also reveals a good correlation between freshwater content anomalies and gyre transport in the subpolar North Atlantic on decadal timescales. A general mechanism involving circulation regime changes and freshwater redistribution between the subpolar North Atlantic and the Arctic/Nordic Seas is proposed, which can resolve a number of seemingly contradictory observed changes in the North Atlantic and contributes to the longer term goal of a full understanding of recent North Atlantic fresh water changes.     

Atmospheric forcing of Fram Strait sea ice export: a closer look

Fram Strait is the primary region of sea ice export from the Arctic and therefore plays an important role in regulating the amount of sea ice and freshwater within the Arctic. We investigate the variability of Fram Strait sea ice motion and the role of atmospheric circulation forcing using daily data during the period 1979–2006. The most prominent atmospheric driver of anomalous sea ice motion across Fram Strait is an east–west dipole pattern of Sea Level Pressure (SLP) anomalies with centers of action located over the Barents Sea and Greenland. This pattern, also observed in synoptic studies, is associated with anomalous meridional winds across Fram Strait and is thus physically consistent with forcing changes in sea ice motion. The association between the SLP dipole pattern and Fram Strait ice motion is maximized at 0-lag, persists year-round, and is strongest on time scales of 10–60 days. The SLP dipole pattern is the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of daily SLP anomalies in both winter and summer. When the analysis is repeated with monthly data, only the Barents center of the SLP dipole remains significantly correlated with Fram Strait sea ice motion. However, after removing the leading EOF of monthly SLP variability (e.g., the North Atlantic Oscillation), the full east–west dipole pattern is recovered. No significant SLP forcing of Fram Strait ice motion is found in summer using monthly data, even when the leading EOF is removed. Our results highlight the importance of high frequency atmospheric variability in forcing Fram Strait sea ice motion.     

Sea ice induced changes in ocean circulation during the Eemian

We argue that Arctic sea ice played an important role during early stages of the last glacial inception. Two simulations of the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace coupled model 4 are analyzed, one for the time of maximum high latitude summer insolation during the last interglacial, the Eemian, and a second one for the subsequent summer insolation minimum, at the last glacial inception. During the inception, increased Arctic freshwater export by sea ice shuts down Labrador Sea convection and weakens overturning circulation and oceanic heat transport by 27 and 15%, respectively. A positive feedback of the Atlantic subpolar gyre enhances the initial freshening by sea ice. The reorganization of the subpolar surface circulation, however, makes the Atlantic inflow more saline and thereby maintains deep convection in the Nordic Seas. These results highlight the importance of an accurate representation of dynamic sea ice for the study of past and future climate changes.     

冬春季节北极海冰的年际和年代际变化

利用1953～1990年海冰密集度资料,研究了冬、春季节北极海冰的时空变化特征.结果表明:冬,春季节海冰变率大的海区主要有巴伦支海、格陵兰海、巴芬湾、戴维斯海峡以及白令海;在巴芬湾、戴维斯海峡和白令海海区,冬季海冰变率比春季的大;冬、春季节喀拉海、巴伦支海海冰面积均与春季白令海海冰面积呈反向变化关系,与巴芬湾、戴维斯海峡海冰面积也存在相反的变化趋势.分析还表明:北极海冰面积还表现出年代际时间尺度变化,尤其在冬季.春季格陵兰海海冰明显存在12年变化周期,而在冬、春季节,喀拉海、巴伦支海海冰存在l0年变化周期.     

Interdecadal variability of the meridional overturning circulation as an ocean internal mode

The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in the coupled ECHAM5/MPIOM exhibits variability at periods of near 30 years and near 60 years. The 30-year variability, referred to as interdecadal variability (IDV), exist in an ocean model driven by climatological atmospheric forcing, suggesting that it is maintained by ocean dynamics; the 60-year variability, the multidecadal variability (MDV), is only observed in the fully coupled model and therefore is interpreted as an atmosphere–ocean coupled mode. The coexistence of the 30-year IDV and the 60-year MDV provides a possible explanation for the widespread time scales observed in climate variables. Further analyses of the climatologically forced ocean model shows that, the IDV is related to the interplay between the horizontal temperature-dominated density gradients and the ocean circulation: temperature anomalies move along the cyclonic subpolar gyre leading to fluctuations in horizontal density gradients and the subsequent weakening and strengthening of the MOC. This result is consistent with that from less complex models, indicating the robustness of the IDV. We further show that, along the North Atlantic Current path, the sea surface temperature anomalies are determined by the slow LSW advection at the intermediate depth.