汶川地区震后钢筋混凝土框架结构的地震易损性研究

以汶川地震为研究背景,针对震后典型钢筋混凝土框架结构进行地震易损性研究。基于Cornell理论框架结合汶川地质资料,拟合出考虑场地特点的地震危险性模型,同时定义损伤水平状态及限值指标,以概率解析易损性研究方法为基础,运用考虑地震动参数的解析易损性评估方法绘制汶川地区钢筋混凝土框架建筑的地震易损性曲线。研究结果表明:考虑地震动参数的概率解析易损性研究方法是一种有效的地震易损性评估方法;以PGA作为地震强度输入指标的结构反应,随自振周期的增大体系最大响应的相关性降低,结构各个损伤状态的失效概率均随之增大。     

基于概率估计方法的立式储罐地震易损性研究

结合储罐的震害资料和震害特点,提出了基于概率估计方法的立式储罐地震易损性研究.考虑了结构的随机性及荷载作用的随机性,给出了各随机变量的概率分布模型及给定烈度下地震发生的概率.从可靠度指标的几何意义入手,提出了储罐的地震易损性计算方法.通过2×103m3和5×104m32种高矮罐的地震易损性研究,结果表明:通过概率方法和绘制地震易损性曲线的方式,更能直观的给出储罐各失效模式的地震易损性.储罐的地震易损性与地震烈度、高径比的关系很大,地震易损性随着地震烈度的增大逐渐增大;与2×103m3储罐相比,5×104m3储罐各失效模式地震易损性明显较小;从多种失效模式进行储罐地震易损性研究更具有科学性.     

桩土作用对隔震梁桥地震易损性及震后通行能力影响

为确定桩土作用对一座位于Ⅲ类场地上的110m三跨连续梁桥地震易损性曲线和震后通行能力的影响,首先建立墩底固结和考虑桩土作用2种有限元模型,选取50条实测的、符合工程场地条件的不同强度地震波作为输入,分别以桥墩墩顶和支座最大位移为目标响应,计算得到转角延性比和支座剪应变值,进而构建桥墩和支座的易损性曲线;然后通过宽界限法建立桥梁系统的地震易损性曲线,提出新的平均损伤水平值计算公式并结合易损性曲线评估该连续梁桥的震后通行能力。分析结果表明,同一地震强度下考虑桩土作用时的桥墩位移峰值比墩底固结情况大,更符合实际情况;对于桥梁构件易损性曲线而言,考虑桩土作用时支座破坏超越概率最大,但与墩底固结情况相比相差不大;采用桥梁系统地震易损性曲线评价桥梁交通流量变化更加合理,固结模型的震后交通流量评估Ⅲ类场地情况时不可忽略桩土作用对桥梁地震易损性的影响。     

地震重灾区诱发次生地质灾害风险评价研究

为了揭示地震重灾区与次生地质灾害的关联性,以某地震灾区为例,在分析次生地质灾害类型与危害的基础上,通过计算一次泥石流总量及流量确定其危险度,并引入易损性指数,确定各评价单元次生山地灾害的易损性大小,设置评价指标;结合研究区实际,采用层次分析法构建次生地质灾害风险评价模型,对地震重灾区诱发次生地质灾害风险进行评价。实验以次生地质灾害中的泥石流产生的灾害风险为例进行研究,结果表明,采用本文研究方法可在有效确定地震重灾区诱发次生地质灾害的位置方面具有一定优势,但在纵向地震造成次生地质灾害风险评价方面需进一步进行研究。     

基于经验频率曲线的湖泊富营养化随机评价方法及其验证

本文提出了基于经验频率曲线的湖泊富营养化随机评价方法.该法通过建立水体富营养化评价标准中各项水质指标和评价级别的经验频率曲线,推求实际水体各项水质指标的经验频率,并采用加权平均法推求湖泊富营养化评价级别的经验频率,从而得出湖泊富营养化的评价级别,具有方法简单、图形直观、计算工作量小的特点.经全国30个湖库湖泊实测水质资料的验证,随机评价方法与模糊评价方法和灰色评价方法的计算精度相当.     

核电厂考虑结构参数不确定的 地震易损性分析

为考虑核电厂结构参数不确定对结构地震易损性的影响,基于一次二阶矩法(First-Order Second-Moment, FOSM)进行地震易损性分析。以核电结构中混凝土材料的密度、弹性模量,泊松比和抗拉强度为不确定参数,建立有限元模型,并与试验结果对比,以验证模型的准确性。基于有限元数值模拟方法,通过增量动力法计算核电厂模型在多条地震记录下不同峰值加速度的动力响应,同时基于FOSM得到参数不确定下的对数标准差,进而得到核电厂结构考虑参数不确定的地震易损性曲线。结果表明,结构参数的不确定对核电结构有一定的影响,未考虑参数不确定的地震易损性结果会低估结构的失效概率。该方法可为核电结构基于参数不确定下的易损性分析提供一定的理论依据与实用价值。     

永登5.8级地震中黄土震陷灾害的探讨

在1995年兰州永登发生的5.8级地震中,震区产生了严重的黄土震陷灾害。为了研究震区黄土震陷灾害的成因,对震区黄土进行了土工试验和土动力学试验,探讨了该区黄土的基本物理力学指标和土动力特性参数与黄土易损性的关系,分析了易损性与震区黄土震陷灾害的关系。经过多指标综合分析研究发现,震区黄土的易损性大,震陷性强。利用黄土震陷试验分析计算预测方法对震区黄土场地的震陷量进行预测研究,所得结果与实际地震的震陷量符合较好。     

基于增量动力分析(IDA)方法的地震易损性工程实例分析

增量动力分析法(Incremental Dynamic Analysis,IDA)是一种以动力弹塑性时程分析为基础的参数分析方法,而建筑结构的地震易损性分析是指在不同强度地震作用下结构达到或超过某种极限状态的概率。文章基于IDA分析方法,通过选取一定数量的地震动记录,指定地震动强度指标并做归一化处理,利用OpenSees软件平台向结构碰撞数值模型输入地震动数据,计算得出结构倒塌概率,以地震动参数为随机变量,对数据进行拟合分析,建立倒塌概率易损性曲线,验证IDA方法的可靠性以及Opensees软件对于该类问题的适用性。     

基于IDA的钢管混凝土空间组合桁架连续梁桥抗震易损性分析

以一座最大墩高110m钢管混凝土空间组合桁架连续梁桥为工程背景,采用Open Sees建立其弹塑性三维有限元动力分析模型,从PEER地震数据库中选取10条地震动记录进行增量动力分析。以典型墩最不利截面材料损伤应变所对应截面曲率为损伤指标,利用能力需求比对数函数进行回归分析,计算不同构件在不同损伤状态下的破坏概率,建立墩柱易损性曲线和支座易损性曲线。基于联合失效概率分析方法,形成了桥梁系统易损性曲线。结果表明:纵向地震作用下该类桥梁墩高突变明显时,低墩较高墩对地震动更敏感,应充分注意墩高突变区域抗震设计;高耸钢管混凝土格构墩柔性较好,在可预料地震作用下几乎不会发生严重损伤和完全破坏,抗震性能良好;该桥系统失效概率大于结构中最易破坏支座失效概率。     

基于易损性指数的S RC框架核心筒结构地震损伤评估

设计1个20层SRC框架核心筒结构模型,考虑地震的随机性和结构材料的不确定性,采用拉丁超立方体抽取结构-地震动样本,之后对其进行增量动力分析（IDA）,以第1周期谱加速度为强度指标,最大层间位移角为结构需求,定义4个性能水平,研究该结构的易损性。通过引入群体结构震害评估中易损性指数的概念,计算多遇、设防和罕遇地震下的易损性指数。结果表明:以易损性指数作为评价指标,该结构在多遇地震作用下,处于轻微破坏状态;在设防地震作用下,处于中等破坏状态;在罕遇地震作用下,结构处于严重破坏状态。可认为依据我国抗震规范设计的SRC框架核心筒结构能够满足"小震不坏"、"中震可修"和"大震不倒"的抗震设防目标。     

新疆部分城镇远震和近震影响的确定方法

以建筑抗震设计规范ＧＢＪ１１－９（条文说明）中涉及到的新疆地区考虑远震影响的城镇为研究对象，采用现行的地震危险性分析概率方法，考虑远震和近震影响的实质，提出了一处合理的确定远震和近震影响的方法，进而确定这些城镇的基本烈度是远震影响还是近震影响。     

Macroseismic and mechanical models for the vulnerability and damage assessment of current buildings

The European Commission funded the RISK-UE project in 1999 with the aim of providing an advanced approach to earthquake risk scenarios for European towns and regions. In the framework of Risk-UE project, two methods were proposed, originally derived and calibrated by the authors, for the vulnerability assessment of current buildings and for the evaluation of earthquake risk scenarios: a macroseismic model, to be used with macroseismic intensity hazard maps, and a mechanical based model, to be applied when the hazard is provided in terms of peak ground accelerations and spectral values. The vulnerability of the buildings is defined by vulnerability curves, within the macroseismic method, and in terms of capacity curves, within the mechanical method. In this paper, the development of both vulnerability and capacity curves is presented with reference to an assumed typological classification system; moreover, their cross-validation is presented. The parameters of the two methods and the steps for their operative implementation are provided in the paper.     

钢筋混凝土桥梁地震易损性评估模型设计

桥梁作为交通中不可或缺的一部分,对其地震易损性进行研究具有现实意义。针对当前桥梁地震易损性分析方法存在准确性待提升的问题,提出基于模糊评定的钢筋混凝土桥梁地震易损性评估模型。以桥梁结构层次、材料层次及边界层几方面为主对桥梁评估过程中的不确定性参数进行分析。以分析结果为依据,考虑到桥梁损失是一个比较模糊的概念,引入模糊数学中的模糊评定方法对桥梁地震易损性进行评估。融合位移下桥梁支座损伤分析、能量下桥墩损伤分析、周期下桥梁结构整体损伤分析,构建可以反映钢筋混凝土桥梁由局部到整体的多层次模糊易损性评估模型。通过实验对所建模型进行验证,结果显示：在纵向只发生轻微破坏,且轻微破坏的概率较小,基本处于完好状态。而在横向,发生轻微破坏的概率较大,甚至还可能发生中等破坏。在地震作用下,桥梁破坏也基本以轻微破坏和中等破坏为主,严重破坏的概率很小。     

城市抗震防灾规划中建筑物易损性评价方法的研究

基于功能和后果的抗震设防理念,提出了城市建筑物的分类方法并根据不同类别采取不同抗震易损性评价方法,其中包括应用能力谱的理论易损性分析方法和快速群体震害预测方法等。根据这些方法和泉州市规划区内的房屋调查资料,对泉州市的房屋进行了震害预测,并通过泉州市建筑物地震易损性分析的结果,提出了针对性的抗震减灾策略。所发展的易损性评价方法和对策措施对其他城市编制抗震防灾规划也具有一定参考价值。     

Seismic vulnerability assessment based on typological characteristics. The first level procedure “SAVE”

In this paper a procedure is described for quick seismic vulnerability assessment according to the EMS 98 classification. The criteria adopted by Ems 98 to assign the typological classes are mainly based on the vertical structure type. The proposed methodology aims to reduce the uncertainty in the class assessment using a set of parameters, related to typological features, that are identified as modifiers of the vulnerability level. The paper shows how the weight of each of these parameters is evaluated through the analysis of the seismic damages recorded during past earthquakes. A synthetic damage parameter is then defined in order to compare the seismic response of different sets of buildings under the same seismic intensity. Finally, the vulnerability assessment obtained on a set of buildings by the application of the methodology is compared with expert evaluations derived from the direct inspections on buildings.     

Quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment with vulnerability surface and hazard joint return period

Risk assessment plays an important role in disaster risk management. Existing multi-hazard risk assessment models are often qualitative or semi-quantitative in nature and used for comparative study of regional risk levels. They cannot estimate directly probability of disaster losses from the joint impact of several hazards. In this paper, a quantitative approach of multi-hazard risk assessment based on vulnerability surface and joint return period of hazards is put forward to assess the risk of crop losses in the Yangtze River Delta region of China. The impact of strong wind and flood, the two most prominent agricultural hazards in the area, is analyzed. The multi-hazard risk assessment process consists of three steps. First, a vulnerability surface, which denotes the functional relationship between the intensity of the hazards and disaster losses, was built using the crop losses data for losses caused by strong wind and flood in the recent 30 years. Second, the joint probability distribution of strong wind and flood was established using the copula functions. Finally, risk curves that show the probability of crop losses in this multi-hazard context at four case study sites were calculated according to the joint return period of hazards and the vulnerability surface. The risk assessment result of crop losses provides a useful reference for governments and insurance companies to formulate agricultural development plans and analyze the market of agricultural insurance. The multi-hazard risk assessment method developed in this paper can also be used to quantitatively assess multi-hazard risk in other regions.     

罕遇地震下高层RC框架结构双地震动强度参数易损性分析

为研究高层RC框架结构罕遇地震下的易损性,设计了一个7度区典型11层RC框架结构。采用IDA方法进行时程分析,以地震动峰值地面加速度和结构第一自振周期对应的谱加速度为地震动强度指标,最大层间位移角为结构损伤指标,分别得到了单一地震动强度和双地震动强度参数下的IDA曲线和失效概率,绘制了双地震动强度参数下易损性曲面,并对单一地震动强度和双地震动强度参数下的易损性分析结果进行了对比。结果表明:罕遇地震下,采用双地震动强度参数结构失效概率明显低于采用单一地震动强度参数结构失效概率;对高层RC框架结构,采用双地震动强度参数进行易损性分析反映的地震动信息更全面;采用双地震动强度参数得到的结构失效概率公式更能真实量化不同强度地震作用下结构的失效概率。     

Development and assessment of damage‐to‐loss models for moment‐frame reinforced concrete buildings

The assessment of earthquake loss often requires the definition of a relation between a measure of damage and a quantity of loss, usually achieved through the employment of a damage‐to‐loss model. These models are frequently characterized by a large variability, which inevitably increases the uncertainty in the vulnerability assessment and earthquake loss estimation. This study provides an insight on the development of damage‐to‐loss functions for moment‐frame reinforced concrete buildings through an analytical methodology. Tri‐dimensional finite element models of existing reinforced concrete buildings were subjected to a number of ground motion records compatible with the seismicity in the region of interest, through nonlinear dynamic analysis. These results were used to assess, for a number of damage states, the probability distribution of loss ratio, taking into consideration member damage and different repair techniques, as well as to derive sets of fragility functions. Then, a vulnerability model (in terms of the ratio of cost of repair to cost of replacement, conditional on the level of ground shaking intensity) was derived and compared with the vulnerability functions obtained through the combination of various damage‐to‐loss models with the set of fragility functions developed herein. In order to provide realistic estimates of economic losses due to seismic action, a comprehensive study on repair costs using current Portuguese market values was also carried out. The results of this study highlight important issues in the derivation of vulnerability functions, which are a fundamental component for an adequate seismic risk assessment. © 2015 The Authors. Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

新疆玛纳斯县城场地类别模糊综合评定

采用苏经宇等提出的场地类别模糊综合评定方法对玛纳斯县城的场地类别进行划分。该方法采用多因素综合评定,充分占有判断信息,其结果合理、可靠。为把该方法应用于其他中小城镇及重要场区,简要介绍了该方法的基本原理并详细说明了该方法的计算机过程。模糊综合评定包括了模糊一级评定和二级评定结果。