首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 437 毫秒
1.
Spatially explicit land use/cover models are indispensable for sustainable rural land use planning, particularly in southern African countries that are experiencing rapid land use/cover changes. Using Zimbabwe as an example, we simulated future land use/cover changes up to 2030 based on a Markov-cellular automata model that integrates Markovian transition probabilities computed from satellite-derived land use/cover maps and a cellular automata spatial filter. A multicriteria evaluation (MCE) procedure was used to generate transition potential maps from biophysical and socioeconomic data. Dynamic adjustments of transition probabilities and transition potential map thresholds were implemented in the Markov-cellular automata model through a multi-objective land allocation (MOLA) procedure. Using the normalised transition probabilities, the Markov-cellular automata model simulated future land use/cover changes (up to 2030) under the 2000 calibration scenario, predicting a continuing downward trend in woodland areas and an upward trend in bareland areas. Future land use/cover simulations indicated that if the current land use/cover trends continue in the study area without holistic sustainable development measures, severe land degradation will ensue.  相似文献   

2.
Simulating land use/cover change (LUCC) and determining its transition rules have been a focus of research for several decades. Previous studies used ordinary logistic regression (OLR) to determine transition rules in cellular automata (CA) modeling of LUCC, which often neglected the spatially non-stationary relationships between driving factors and land use/cover categories. We use an integrated geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) CA-Markov method to simulate LUCC from 2001–2011 over 29 towns in the Connecticut River Basin. Results are compared with those obtained from the OLR-CA-Markov method, and the sensitivity of LUCC simulated by the GWLR-CA-Markov method to the spatial non-stationarity-based suitability map is investigated. Analysis of residuals indicates better goodness of fit in model calibration for geographically weighted regression (GWR) than OLR. Coefficients of driving factors indicate that GWLR outperforms OLR in depicting the local suitability of land use/cover categories. Kappa statistics of the simulated maps indicate high agreement with observed land use/cover for both OLR-CA-Markov and GWLR-CA-Markov methods. Similarity in simulation accuracy between the methods suggests that the sensitivity of simulated LUCC to suitability inputs is low with respect to spatial non-stationarity. Therefore, this study provides critical insight on the role of spatial non-stationarity throughout the process of LUCC simulation.  相似文献   

3.
Continental to global reconstructions of historic land cover/use are important inputs for many environmental, ecological and biogeochemical studies. While local to regional reconstructions frequently make use of old topographic maps and land use statistics, continental to global reconstructions are mostly model-based reconstructions. As a result they are subject to large uncertainties. A wealth of historic land cover/use maps and statistics have been produced and these are now more accessible due to the ending of copyrights and secrecy statuses, enthusiastic hobby communities and national cartographic institutes or cadastres that have a strategy towards data sharing with society. In this paper we made use of historic statistics and old topographic maps to demonstrate the added value for model-based reconstructions of historic land cover/use for Central Europe back to 1900. We harmonized these diverse data types and different types of historic land data were incorporated into the land use reconstructions. The added value of using these data was evaluated using historical maps by performing a reconstruction with and without the historic information. The accuracy of the land allocation in the historic reconstruction was improved by 16.5% using historic maps. Additionally, historic maps improved the representation of the spatial structure of landscapes. The historic land cover/use statistics used showed a strong agreement with independent estimates, like historic maps.  相似文献   

4.
土地利用/ 土地覆被变化(LUCC) 是当前研究全球变化的重要内容, 而区域土地利用 格局模拟是LUCC 研究的核心内容之一。以张家界市永定区为研究单元, 根据由2005 年土地 利用现状图和数字高程模型数据源得到的土地利用、地形、河流以及道路等空间数据, 对区 域土地利用类型空间格局的空间自相关性特征进行了建模研究, 并通过在传统Logistic 模型 中引入描述空间自相关性的成份, 实现了能够考虑自相关性因素的回归分析模型 (AutoLogistic 模型), 同时应用该模型对区域土地利用格局进行了模拟和分析。结果显示, 通 过与没有考虑空间自相关性的回归模型(传统Logistic 模型) 相比较, 该模型显示了更好的拟 合优度和更高的拟合准确率(耕地、林地、建设用地及未利用地的ROC 值分别从0.851、 0.913、0.877 和0.852 提高到0.893、0.940、0.907 和0.863)。研究结果说明了基于 AutoLogistic 方法的土地利用格局的相关性建模在一定意义上是合理的。同时研究结果也可以 为永定区及其相似地区的土地利用规划决策提供更为科学的依据。  相似文献   

5.
The objective of this paper is to examine a method for estimation of land cover statistics for local environments from available area frame surveys of larger, surrounding areas. The method is a simple version of the small-area estimation methodology. The starting point is a national area frame survey of land cover. This survey is post-stratified using a coarse land cover map based on topographic maps and segmentation of satellite images. The approach is to describe the land cover composition of each stratum and subsequently use the results to calculate land cover statistics for a smaller area where the relative distribution of the strata is known. The method was applied to a mountain environment in Gausdal in Eastern Norway and the result was compared to reference data from a complete in situ land cover map of the study area. The overall correlation (Pearson’s rho) between the observed and the estimated land cover figures was r = 0.95. The method does not produce a map of the target area and the estimation error was large for a few of the land cover classes. The overall conclusion is, however, that the method is applicable when the objective is to produce land cover statistics and the interest is the general composition of land cover classes - not the precise estimate of each class. The method will be applied in outfield pasture management in Norway, where it offers a cost-efficient way to screen the management units and identify local areas with a land cover composition suitable for grazing. The limited resources available for in situ land cover mapping can then be allocated efficiently to in-depth studies of the areas with the highest grazing potential. It is also expected that the method can be used to compile land cover statistics for other purposes as well, provided that the motivation is to describe the overall land cover composition and not to provide exact estimates for the individual land cover classes.  相似文献   

6.
Understanding and analysis of drivers of land-use and -cover change (LUCC) is a requisite to reduce and manage impacts and consequences of LUCC. The aim of the present study is to analyze drivers of LUCC in Southern Mexico and to see how these are used by different conceptual and methodological approaches for generating transition potential maps and how this influences the effectiveness to produce reliable LUCC models. Spatial factors were tested for their relation to main LUCC processes, and their importance as drivers for the periods 1993–2002 and 2002–2007 was evaluated by hierarchical partitioning analysis and logistic regression models. Tested variables included environmental and biophysical variables, location measures of infrastructure and of existing land use, fragmentation, and demographic and social variables. The most important factors show a marked persistence over time: deforestation is mainly driven by the distance of existing land uses; degradation and regeneration by the distance of existing disturbed forests. Nevertheless, the overall number of important factors decreases slightly for the second period. These drivers were used to produce transition potential maps calibrated with the 1993–2002 data by two different approaches: (1) weights of evidence (WoE) to represent the probabilities of dominant change processes, namely deforestation, forest degradation, and forest regeneration for temperate and tropical forests and (2) logistic RM that show the suitability regarding the different land-use and -cover (LUC) classes. Validation of the transition potential maps with the 2002–2007 data indicates a low precision with large differences between LUCC processes and methods. Areas of change evaluated by difference in potential showed that WoE produce transition potential maps that are more accurate for predicting LUCC than those produced with RM. Relative operating characteristic (ROC) statistics show that transition potential models based on RM do usually better predict areas of no change, but the difference is rather small. The poor performance of maps based on RM could be attributed to their too general representation of suitability for certain LUC classes when the goal is modeling complex LUCC and the LUC classes participate in several transitions. The application of a multimodel approach enables to better understand the relations of drivers to LUCC and the evaluation of model calibration based on spatial explanatory factors. This improved understanding of the capacity of LUCC models to produce accurate predictions is important for making better informed policy assessments and management recommendations to reduce deforestation.  相似文献   

7.
The Qilian mountain area was examined for using the Logistic-CA-Markov coupling model combined with GIS spatial analyst technology to research the transformation of LUCC, driving force system and simulate future tendency of variation. Results show that:(1) Woodland area decreased by 12.55%, while grassland, cultivated land, and settlement areas increased by 0.22%, 7.92%, and 0.03%, respectively, from 1986 to 2014. During the period of 1986 to 2000, forest degradation in the middle section of the mountain area decreased by 1,501.69 km~2. Vegetation cover area improved, with a net increase of grassland area of 38.12 km~2 from 2000 to 2014.(2) For constructing the system driving force, the best simulation scale was 210m×210m. Based on logistic regression analysis, the contribution(weight) of composite driving forces to land use and cover change was obtained, and the weight value was more objectively compared with AHP and MCE method.(3) In the natural scenarios, it is predicted that land use and cover distribution maps of Qilian mountain area in 2028 and 2042, and the Lee-Sallee index test was adopted. Over the next 27 years(2015–2042), farmland, woodland, grassland, settlement areas show an increasing trend, especially settlements with an obvious change of 0.56%. The area of bare land will decrease by 0.89%. Without environmental degradation, tremendous structural change of LUCC will not occur, and typical characteristic of the vertical zone of the mountain would remain. Farmland and settlement areas will increase, but only in the vicinity of Qilian and Sunan counties.  相似文献   

8.
Nowadays, spatial simulation on land use patterns is one of the key contents of LUCC. Modeling is an important tool for simulating land use patterns due to its ability to integrate measurements of changes in land cover and the associated drivers. The conventional regression model can only analyze the correlation between land use types and driving factors, but cannot depict the spatial autocorrelation characteristics. Land uses in Yongding County, which is located in the typical karst mountain areas in northwestern Hunan province, were investigated by means of modeling the spatial autocorrelation of land use types with the purpose of deriving better spatial land use patterns on the basis of terrain characteristics and infrastructural conditions. Through incorporating components describing the spatial autocorrelation into a conventional logistic model, we constructed a regression model (Autologistic model), and used this model to simulate and analyze the spatial land use patterns in Yongding County. According to the comparison with the conventional logistic model without considering the spatial autocorrelation, this model showed better goodness and higher accuracy of fitting. The distribution of arable land, wood land, built-up land and unused land yielded areas under the ROC curves (AUC) was improved to 0.893, 0.940, 0.907 and 0.863 respectively with the autologistic model. It is argued that the improved model based on autologistic method was reasonable to a certain extent. Meanwhile, these analysis results could provide valuable information for modeling future land use change scenarios with actual conditions of local and regional land use, and the probability maps of land use types obtained from this study could also support government decision-making on land use management for Yongding County and other similar areas.  相似文献   

9.
The complexity of land use and land cover (LULC) change models is often attributed to spatial heterogeneity of the phenomena they try to emulate. The associated outcome uncertainty stems from a combination of model unknowns. Contrarily to the widely shared consensus on the importance of evaluating outcome uncertainty, little attention has been given to the role a well-structured spatially explicit sensitivity analysis (SSA) of LULC models can play in corroborating model results. In this article, I propose a methodology for SSA that employs sensitivity indices (SIs), which decompose outcome uncertainty and allocate it to various combinations of inputs. Using an agent-based model of residential development, I explore the utility of the methodology in explaining the uncertainty of simulated land use change. Model sensitivity is analyzed using two approaches. The first is spatially inexplicit in that it applies SI to scalar outputs, where outcome land use maps are lumped into spatial statistics. The second approach, which is spatially explicit, employs the maps directly in SI calculations. It generates sensitivity maps that allow for identifying regions of factor influence, that is, areas where a particular input contributes most to the clusters of residential development uncertainty. I demonstrate that these two approaches are complementary, but at the same time can lead to different decisions regarding input factor prioritization.  相似文献   

10.
This article describes and compares six disaggregation methods used to produce a dasymetric population density grid of the European Union at a 100 m resolution. Population data were initially available at commune level. The main ancillary information source was CORINE land cover, a land cover map distributed by the European Environment Agency. Information from the Eurostat point survey, land use/cover area frame survey, was also integrated in the parameter estimation of some of the approaches tested. Accurate population data for 1 km cell grids were provided by the Statistical Offices of Austria, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, Northern Ireland, Estonia and Sweden. These data provided the basic reference to quantify the accuracy of each method. The best results were obtained with a modified version of the limiting variable method (Eicher, C. and Brewer, C., 2001. Dasymetric mapping and areal interpolation: implementation and evaluation. Cartography and Geographic Information Science, 28, 125–138) that could be implemented, thanks to the national reference grids. For other methods the parameters could be estimated without using the reference grids; among them a method based on logit regression gave the best results. Compared with the traditional choropleth maps that represent a homogeneous density in each commune, the accuracy improvement of the disaggregated maps ranged between 20% and 67% (between 46% and 67% for the best method).  相似文献   

11.
Detailed and harmonized information on spatial forest distribution is an essential input for forest-related environmental assessments, in particular, for biomass and growing stock modeling. In the last years, several mapping approaches have been developed in order to provide such information for Europe in a harmonized way. Each of these maps exhibits particular properties and varies in accuracy. Yet, they are often used in parallel for different modeling purposes. A detailed spatial comparison seemed necessary in order to provide information on the advantages and limitations of each of these forest cover maps in order to facilitate their selection for modeling purposes.

This article confronts the high-resolution forest cover map recently developed by the Joint Research Centre for the year 2000 (FMAP2000) with previously existing maps for the same time period: the CORINE Land Cover 2000 (CLC2000) and the Calibrated European Forest Map 1996 (CEFM1996). The spatial comparison of these three maps was carried out based on forest proportion maps of 1 km derived from the original maps. To characterize differences according to biogeographic regions, two criteria were used: detail of thematic content within each map and local spatial agreement.

Concerning thematic content, CLC2000 displayed a surfeit of non-forested areas at the cost of low forest proportions, while FMAP2000 showed a more balanced distribution likely to preserve more detail in forest spatial pattern. Good spatial agreement was found for CLC2000 and FMAP2000 within about 70% of the study area, while only 50% agreement was found when compared with CEFM1996. The largest spatial differences between all maps were found in the Alpine and Mediterranean regions. Reasons for these might be different input data and classification techniques and, in particular, the calibration of CEFM1996 to reported national statistics.  相似文献   

12.
长时间序列的土地利用/ 土地覆被数据是开展全球变化、可持续发展及生态安全等各项研究的重要基础。然而,早期的土地利用/ 土地覆被数据,特别是卫星遥感数据出现之前 的土地利用/ 土地覆被信息通常很难获取。利用TM、MSS 遥感影像数据和地形图、气候、地质、地貌、土壤、植被、水文等自然环境背景图件以及数据,社会经济统计数据等多源数 据,选择大庆市杜尔伯特蒙古族自治县作为典型案例区,在GIS 技术支持下建立了土地利用/ 土地覆被数字重建模型,再现了典型研究区20 世纪30 年代和50 年代土地利用/ 土地覆被空间分布状况。通过野外调查和历史文献资料对土地利用数字重建结果进行精度评价并初步得到以下结论:① 采用逐个图斑跟踪记录的方法对研究区各个时期土地利用/ 覆被变化的敏感 性进行分析,有利于揭示区域土地利用/ 土地覆被变化的规律;② 在定量、定位分析环境背景对土地利用/ 土地覆被分布及其变化的影响基础上,综合判断各种土地利用/ 土地覆被分布概率,其结果可为土地利用数字重建提供依据;③ 对1:10 万地形图提取土地利用信息的可行性与可信度分析表明,地形图中土地利用信息完全能够达到一级土地利用分类精度,同时疏林地、灌木林、沼泽地、盐碱地、沙地等二级分类信息也能获取。  相似文献   

13.
大渡河上游地区土地利用动态模拟分析   总被引:50,自引:9,他引:41  
基于1967、1987和2000年三期遥感数据和1:25万数字高程模型,通过Logistic逐步回归分析,在地形、海拔、水系、道路交通、城镇和居民点分布等多种自然地理和社会经济因素中,筛选出不同时期对大渡河上游地区主要土地利用类型空间分布及其变化具有决定作用的驱动因子,并生成相应的土地利用空间分布概率适宜图,然后采用CLUE-S模型,模拟分析了1987年和2000年两个时点上金川、壤塘和马尔康三县18665 km2范围内的土地利用状况。用当年的现状图检验对比的结果表明,模拟取得了较为理想的结果,Kappa值分别达到0.86和0.89。在此基础上,针对三种政策情景,应用相同模型模拟预测了研究地区2010年时的土地利用时空变化。  相似文献   

14.
A generic problem associated with different land cover maps that cover the same geographical area is the use of different legend categories. There may be disagreement in many areas when comparing different land cover products even though the legend shows the same or very similar land cover class. To capture the uncertainty associated with both differences in the legend and the difficulty in classification when comparing two land cover maps, expert knowledge and a fuzzy logic framework are used to map the fuzzy agreement. The methodology is illustrated by comparing the Global Land Cover 2000 data set and the MODIS global land cover product. Overall accuracy measures are calculated, and the spatial fuzzy agreement between the two land cover products is provided. This approach can be used to improve the overall confidence in a land cover product, since areas of severe disagreement can be highlighted, and areas can be identified that require further attention and possible re-mapping.  相似文献   

15.
This article presents an econometric analysis of land‐cover change in western Honduras. Ground‐truthed satellite image analysis indicates that between 1987 and 1996 net reforestation occurred in the 1,015‐km2 study region. While some reforestation can be attributed to a 1987 ban on logging, the area of reforestation greatly exceeds that of previously clear‐cut areas. Further, new area was also deforested between 1987 and 1996. Thus, the observed land‐cover changes represent a complex mosaic of changing land‐use patterns across time and space. The analysis contributes to the literature on land‐cover change modeling in that: (1) it compares two econometric approaches to capture complex and often bidirectional changes in land cover from 1987 to 1996 as a function of agricultural suitability and transportation costs, and (2) it addresses techniques to identify and correct for spatial autocorrelation in a categorical regression framework.  相似文献   

16.
In order to advance land use and land cover change (LUCC) research in Nepal, it is essential to reconstruct both the spatiotemporal distribution of agricultural land cover as well as scenarios that can explain these changes at the national and regional levels. Because of rapid population growth, the status of agricultural land in Nepal has changed markedly over the last 100 years. Historical data is used in this study, encompassing soils, populations, climatic variables, and topography. Data were revised to a series of 30 m grid cells utilized for agricultural land suitability and allocation models and were analyzed using a suite of advanced geographical tools. Our reconstructions for the spatiotemporal distribution of agricultural land in Nepal reveal an increasing trend between 1910 and 2010 (from 151.2 × 102 km2 to 438.8 × 102 km2). This expanded rate of increase in agricultural land has varied between different eco, physiographic, and altitudinal regions of the country, significantly driven by population changes and policies over the period of this investigation. The historical dataset presented in this paper fills an existing gap in studies of agricultural land change and can be applied to other carbon cycle and climate modeling studies, as well as to impact assessments of agricultural land change in Nepal.  相似文献   

17.
We assessed deforestation in Southeast Mexico (a surface area of 29 000 km2 in seven states) through the comparison of land use/land cover maps at a scale of 1:250 000. This facilitated mapping of the land use/land cover change (LULCC) processes and calculation of the rates of change and the change matrix for the period 1978–2000. An original method was used to assess the accuracy of the LULCC map. The verification sites were selected through a stratified random sampling and were corroborated with aerial photographs for 1978 and 2000. Error matrices were elaborated using both hard and fuzzy set approaches in order to take into account the errors related to generalization of the map in fragmented landscapes. The results showed an average annual deforestation rate of 1.1 per cent which represents an average annual loss of 190 000 ha of forest, or an estimated total reduction of 4.2 million ha over 22 years. Furthermore, deforestation processes are concentrated in some areas such as Yucatan and Chiapas states, which registered major forest conversions to grassland and slash‐burning. The overall accuracy of the LULCC map, assessed with hard and fuzzy set approaches, was 72 per cent and 88 per cent respectively.  相似文献   

18.
Topographic maps are powerful tools for the purpose of identifying land use and cover change (LUCC) as they are among the most reliable representations of past landscapes for the time prior to the existence of aerial photography. In light of the increased availability of historical maps, we argue that there is a need for a standardized process to assess map comparability in a systematic way in order to avoid, or at least minimize, the detection of spurious landscape changes due to incompatible map series. A full understanding of map quality, background and error distributions is fundamental to attain reliable LUCC results. The conceptual framework presented in this study considers the context, distortion and cartographic generalization of topographic maps. Furthermore, it includes an approach to homogenize the level of generalization of landscape elements (e.g. forests) from maps with different scales. To demonstrate its application, we assessed the comparability of seven topographic maps from Canton Zurich covering a time span of 336 years (1664–2000). Overall, for the maps of Canton Zurich, a wall-to-wall comparison of forest cover based on the topographic maps presented here can be problematic for the oldest map from 1664. Based on the results, a wall-to-wall comparison with the later maps is not recommended, due to its substantial distortion. Yet, after re-generalization of natural landscape elements, such as forests, a comparison based on landscape indices is possible, even for the oldest map. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that maps from the mid-19th century onward possess an acceptable level of accuracy. This framework can be applied to a wide range of maps at regional, national, or global levels, providing the opportunity to look at land cover history over multiple centuries.  相似文献   

19.
There is a growing demand for reliable information about land cover and land resources. The Norwegian area frame survey of land cover and outfield land resources (AR18X18) is a response to this demand. AR18X18 provides unbiased land cover and land resource statistics and constitutes a baseline for studying changes in outfield land resources in Norway and a framework for a national land resource accounting system for the outfields. The area frame survey uses a systematic sampling technique with 0.9 km2 sample plots at 18 km intervals. A complete wall-to-wall land cover map of an entire plot surveyed is obtained in situ by a team of fieldworkers equipped with aerial photographs. The use of sample plots with extended coverage (0.9 km2) ensures that the survey also deals with local variation, thus strengthening the estimates well beyond simple point sampling. The article documents the methodology used in the survey, followed by a discussion of issues raised by the choice of methodology. These issues include the problem of calculating uncertainty and a confidence interval for the estimates, the focus on common rather than rare land cover categories, and the prospect of downscaling the results in order to obtain statistics for subnational regions.  相似文献   

20.
Land cover type is a crucial parameter that is required for various land surface models that simulate water and carbon cycles, ecosystem dynamics, and climate change. Many land use/land cover maps used in recent years have been derived from field investigations and remote-sensing observations. However, no land cover map that is derived from a single source (such as satellite observation) properly meets the needs of land surface simulation in China. This article presents a decision-fuse method to produce a higher-accuracy land cover map by combining multi-source local data based on the Dempster–Shafer (D–S) evidence theory. A practical evidence generation scheme was used to integrate multi-source land cover classification information. The basic probability values of the input data were obtained from literature reviews and expert knowledge. A Multi-source Integrated Chinese Land Cover (MICLCover) map was generated by combining multi-source land cover/land use classification maps including a 1:1,000,000 vegetation map, a 1:100,000 land use map for the year 2000, a 1:1,000,000 swamp-wetland map, a glacier map, and a Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer land cover map for China in 2001 (MODIS2001). The merit of this new map is that it uses a common classification system (the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) land cover classification system), and it has a unified 1 km resolution. The accuracy of the new map was validated by a hybrid procedure. The validation results show great improvement in accuracy for the MICLCover map. The local-scale visual comparison validations for three regions show that the MICLCover map provides more spatial details on land cover at the local scale compared with other popular land cover products. The improvement in accuracy is true for all classes but particularly for cropland, urban, glacier, wetland, and water body classes. Validation by comparison with the China Forestry Scientific Data Center (CFSDC)–Forest Inventory Data (FID) data shows that overall forest accuracies in five provinces increased to between 42.19% and 88.65% for our MICLCover map, while those of the MODIS2001 map increased between 27.77% and 77.89%. The validation all over China shows that the overall accuracy of the MICLCover map is 71%, which is higher than the accuracies of other land cover maps. This map therefore can be used as an important input for land surface models of China. It has the potential to improve the modeling accuracy of land surface processes as well as to support other aspects of scientific land surface investigations in China.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号