Method for estimating available groundwater volume of small coral islands

We present a simple modelling method to estimate the volume of available groundwater in the freshwater lens of atoll islands under steady-state conditions. Model inputs include annual rainfall depth, island width for cross-sections along the length of the island, aquifer hydraulic conductivity, and depth to the contact between the upper sand aquifer and the lower limestone aquifer. The methodology is tested for nine islands of varying size in the Maldives and Micronesia. Sensitivity analysis indicates that lens volume on large islands typically is governed by the depth to the discontinuity, whereas lens volume for smaller islands is governed by rainfall rate and hydraulic conductivity. Volume curves, which relate lens volume to lens thickness, are developed for each of the nine islands and for three generic island shapes to allow rapid estimation of lens volume given field-estimated lens thickness. The methods presented in this study can be used for any small atoll island.     

Quantifying transient post‐overwash aquifer recovery for atoll islands in the Western Pacific

Marine overwash events for atoll islands in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, which cause salinization of fresh groundwater because of infiltrating seawater, pose a significant challenge for island community sustainability in regard to water supply. Understanding transient fresh groundwater development during a post‐overwash period for a range of island sizes, geologic characteristics, and rainfall patterns is essential for water management. This paper presents a methodology for quantifying this development for an atoll nation, with methods applied to the 32 atolls of the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) in the western Pacific. Using the numerical groundwater modelling code SUTRA, overwash events and post‐overwash freshwater–seawater dynamics are simulated for the range of island widths (200 to 1100 m), geologic characteristics (hydraulic conductivity corresponding to leeward and windward islands), and rainfall patterns (western, central, and eastern regions) present in the FSM, thereby providing results for each atoll island. Results show that 10–17, 8–12, and 6–12 months are required to achieve 60% freshwater lens recovery for leeward islands in the western, central, and eastern FSM, respectively, with variation due to rainfall rate and island width. In contrast, 4–9 months is required for 60% recovery for windward islands. However, the natural thinness of the lend on windward islands typically precludes extensive use of groundwater under average rainfall conditions. Overwash characteristics (depth, duration, and seasonal timing) did not significantly affect recovery times. For the region of lowest rainfall (western FSM), 6–10 months is required to achieve potable groundwater at the typical depth of hand‐dug wells. Results provide water resource managers and atoll island communities with important information regarding timing of potential fresh groundwater use following an overwash event. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Groundwater dynamics of Fongafale Islet, Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu

Geoelectric and hydrologic surveys during spring tides revealed the spatiotemporal distribution of groundwater quality produced by tidal forcing in Fongafale Islet, Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu. The observed low resistivity showed that saline water largely immersed the surficial Holocene aquifer, indicating that there is no thick freshwater lens in Fongafale Islet, unlike in other atoll islands of comparable size. Half of the islet was constructed by reclaiming the original swamp with porous, highly permeable coral blocks; this reclaimed area should not be considered as part of the islet width for calculation of the expected thickness of the freshwater lens. The degree of aquifer salinization depends on the topographic characteristics and the hydrologic controls on the inland propagation of the tidal forcing. Large changes in bulk resistivity and the electrical conductivity of groundwater from wells indicate that periodic salinization in phase with the semidiurnal tides was occurring widely, especially in areas at lower elevation than the high-tide level and in reclaimed areas with high permeability. Thin sheets of nearly fresh and brackish water were observed in the surficial aquifer in areas above the high-tide level and in taro swamps, respectively. The thinness of the brackish and freshwater sheets suggests that the taro swamps and the fresh groundwater resources of the islet are highly vulnerable to salinization from anticipated sea-level rise. An understanding of the inherent geologic and topographic features of an atoll is necessary to evaluate the groundwater resources of the atoll and assess the vulnerability of its water resources to climate change.     

Atoll island hydrogeology: flow and freshwater occurrence in a tidally dominated system

A layered-aquifer model of groundwater occurrence in an atoll island was tested with a solute-transport numerical model. The computer model used, SUTRA, incorporates density-dependent flow. This can be significant in freshwater-saltwater interactions associated with the freshwater lens of an atoll island. Boundary conditions for the model included ocean and lagoon tidal variations. The model was calibrated to field data from Enjebi Island, Enewetak Atoll, and tested for sensitivity to a variety of parameters. This resulted in a hydraulic conductivity of 10 m day⁻¹ for the surficial aquifer and 1000 m day⁻¹ for the deeper aquifer; this combination of values gave an excellent reproduction of the tidal response data from test wells. The average salinity distribution was closely reproduced using a dispersivity of 0.02m. The computer simulation quantitatively supports the layered-aquifer model, including under conditions of density-dependent flow, and shows that tidal variations are the predominant driving force for flow beneath the island. The oscillating, vertical flow produced by the tidal variations creates an extensive mixing zone of brackish water. The layered-aquifer model with tidally driven flow is a significant improvement over the Ghyben-Herzberg-Dupuit model as it is conventionally applied to groundwater studies for many Pacific reef islands.     

Sea‐level rise impact on fresh groundwater lenses in two‐layer small islands

The fresh groundwater lenses (FGLs) of small islands can be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts, including sea‐level rise (SLR). Many real cases of atoll or sandy islands involve two‐layer hydrogeological conceptualizations. In this paper, the influential factors that affect FGLs in two‐layer small islands subject to SLR are investigated. An analytical solution describing FGLs in circular islands, composed of two geological layers, is developed for the simplified case of steady‐state and sharp‐interface conditions. An application of the developed model is demonstrated to estimate the FGL thickness of some real‐world islands by comparison with existing FGL thickness data. Furthermore, numerical modelling is applied to extend the analysis to consider dispersion effects and to confirm comparable results for both cases. Sensitivity analyses are used to assess the importance of land‐surface inundation caused by SLR, relative to other parameters (i.e. thickness of aquifer layers, hydraulic conductivity, recharge rate and land‐surface slope) that influence the FGL. Dimensionless parameters are used to generalize the findings. The results demonstrate that land‐surface inundation has a considerable impact on a FGL influenced by SLR, as expected, although the FGL volume is more sensitive to recharge, aquifer thickness and hydraulic conductivity than SLR impacts, considering typical parameter ranges. The methodology presented in this study provides water resource managers with a rapid‐assessment tool for evaluating the likely impacts of SLR and accompanying LSI on FGLs.     

Quantifying threats to groundwater resources in the Republic of Maldives Part II: Recovery from tsunami marine overwash events

Marine overwash events are among the most serious short‐term threats to groundwater supply of small coral islands. During such events, seawater can inundate small islands partially or completely, causing salinization of the aquifer. A comprehensive knowledge of freshwater lens recovery is essential for water planners on these islands. In this study, a numerical modelling approach is used to quantify recovery of the freshwater lens on 4 islands of the Maldives after a tsunami‐induced overwash event similar to that experienced from the Indian Ocean earthquake in December 2004. The islands vary in size (0.2 to 10.1 km²) and span the climatic regions of the Maldives. A tested 3‐dimensional SEAWAT groundwater model for each island is used to simulate the recovery process. Recharge rates from historical rainfall data and from global climate models are imposed on each island during the post‐overwash recovery period. The effect of groundwater pumping on lens recovery also is examined. Results show abrupt decrease in fresh groundwater volumes for each island, followed by recovery that is significantly influenced by island size and recharge patterns. Overall, salinization is more widespread on small islands (<1 km²), but recovery is more rapid than for large islands. Between 50% and 90% of lens recovery occurs after 2 years for small islands (<1 km²) whereas only 35% and 55% for large islands. Imposing pumping rates required to sustain the local population lengthened the recovery time between 5% and 15%, with smaller islands having the higher percentage. However, the governing factor on recovery time is the spatial extent of land surface inundation by the overwash event, with wave height and duration of the event having a negligible impact. A strong relationship exists between required recovery time and island surface area, thereby providing a method to determine recovery time for other atoll islands not investigated in this study with similar geologic structure. Our results can be used to aid in managing water resources during the post‐overwash period.     

Modeling fresh water lens damage and recovery on atolls after storm-wave washover

The principal natural source of fresh water on scattered coral atolls throughout the tropical Pacific Ocean is thin unconfined groundwater lenses within islet substrates. Although there are many threats to the viability of atoll fresh water lenses, salinization caused by large storm waves washing over individual atoll islets is poorly understood. In this study, a mathematical modeling approach is used to examine the immediate responses, longer-term behavior, and subsequent (partial) recovery of a Pacific atoll fresh water lens after saline damage caused by cyclone-generated wave washover under different scenarios. Important findings include: (1) the saline plume formed by a washover event mostly migrates downward first through the top coral sand and gravel substrate, but then exits the aquifer to the ocean laterally through the more permeable basement limestone; (2) a lower water table position before the washover event, rather than a longer duration of storm washover, causes more severe damage to the fresh water lens; (3) relatively fresher water can possibly be found as a preserved horizon in the deeper part of an aquifer after disturbance, especially if the fresh water lens extends into the limestone under normal conditions; (4) post-cyclone accumulation of sea water in the central depression (swamp) of an atoll islet prolongs the later stage of fresh water lens recovery.     

Impact of coastal land reclamation on ground water level and the sea water interface

Land reclamation in coastal areas may have a significant effect on local ground water systems. Steady-state analytic solutions based on Dupuit and Ghyben-Herzberg assumptions are derived to evaluate this effect. Two situations are considered, both with ground water flow resulting from precipitation recharge: the coastal aquifer of an extensive landmass and an island. The results show that after reclamation, the water table rises and the salt water-fresh water interface moves seaward. The degree of these changes depends on the extent of reclamation and the hydraulic conductivity of the fill material. For the island situation, the reclamation displaces the ground water divide and changes the ground water conditions in the entire island. An unintended advantage of the reclamation is an increase of fresh ground water resource because the reclaimed land can be an additional aquifer and rain recharge takes place over a larger area.     

Assessing groundwater availability of the Maldives under future climate conditions

Groundwater resources of the Republic of the Maldives are threatened by a variety of factors including variable future rainfall patterns, continued population growth and associated pumping demands, rising sea level, and contamination from the land surface. This study assesses changes in groundwater availability due to variable rainfall patterns and sea level rise (SLR) in the coming decades, a key component of water resources management for the country. Using a suite of two‐dimensional density‐dependent groundwater flow models, time‐dependent thickness of the freshwater lens is simulated for a range of island sizes (200 to 1,100 m) during the time period of 2011 to 2050, with recharge to the freshwater lens calculated using rainfall patterns provided by general circulation models for the three distinct geographic regions of the Maldives. The effect of SLR on the freshwater lens is quantified using estimates of shoreline recession and associated decreases in island width. If rainfall is solely considered, groundwater availability is projected to increase, as lens thickness during the 2031–2050 time periods is slightly greater (1–5%) than during the 2011–2030 time period. However, including the impact of SLR indicates an overall decrease in lens thickness, with drastic decreases (60% to 100%) projected for small islands (200 m) and moderate decreases (12% to 14%) expected for 400 m islands, which accommodate one third of the national population. Similar methodologies can be used for other atoll island nations, such as the Republic of Marshall Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, and the Republic of Kiribati. For the Maldives, results from this study can be used in conjunction with population growth estimates to determine the feasibility of including groundwater in water resources planning and management for the country.     

The Effect of Modeled Recharge Distribution on Simulated Groundwater Availability and Capture

Simulating groundwater flow in basin‐fill aquifers of the semiarid southwestern United States commonly requires decisions about how to distribute aquifer recharge. Precipitation can recharge basin‐fill aquifers by direct infiltration and transport through faults and fractures in the high‐elevation areas, by flowing overland through high‐elevation areas to infiltrate at basin‐fill margins along mountain fronts, by flowing overland to infiltrate along ephemeral channels that often traverse basins in the area, or by some combination of these processes. The importance of accurately simulating recharge distributions is a current topic of discussion among hydrologists and water managers in the region, but no comparative study has been performed to analyze the effects of different recharge distributions on groundwater simulations. This study investigates the importance of the distribution of aquifer recharge in simulating regional groundwater flow in basin‐fill aquifers by calibrating a groundwater‐flow model to four different recharge distributions, all with the same total amount of recharge. Similarities are seen in results from steady‐state models for optimized hydraulic conductivity values, fit of simulated to observed hydraulic heads, and composite scaled sensitivities of conductivity parameter zones. Transient simulations with hypothetical storage properties and pumping rates produce similar capture rates and storage change results, but differences are noted in the rate of drawdown at some well locations owing to the differences in optimized hydraulic conductivity. Depending on whether the purpose of the groundwater model is to simulate changes in groundwater levels or changes in storage and capture, the distribution of aquifer recharge may or may not be of primary importance.     

Effects of Marine Overwash for Atoll Aquifers: Environmental and Human Factors

Inundation of atoll islands by marine overwash is a serious threat to fresh groundwater, which can be a critical emergency water resource after artificial storage or other water resource infrastructure has been exhausted or destroyed. In contrast to drought, which slowly exhausts water supplies and often can be forecasted in time, overwash can occur with little warning and can ruin both rain catchment storage and groundwater reserves. In this study, a SUTRA‐based model is applied to estimate how groundwater contamination by overwash and subsequent recovery of fresh groundwater are influenced by geologic factors (aquifer hydraulic conductivity, dispersivity, and the presence or absence of a reef flat plate), the seasonal timing of the event (wet vs. dry), and the presence of hand‐dug wells that penetrate the reef flat plate. Actual tidal and rainfall data from regions in the western Pacific are applied to simulated 30‐month recovery periods for hypothetical islands with properties and conditions characteristic of the western Pacific. For all scenarios, results indicate that 12 to 16 months are required to achieve 60% recovery of fresh groundwater. However, the time required to restore useful quantities of groundwater to acceptable salt concentration at depths typical of hand‐dug wells is only 3 to 6 months. Of particular interest is the influence of the reef flat plate, which acts as a barrier to infiltrating seawater, thus preserving a pocket of confined freshwater during an overwash event and the recovery, which could probably be utilized if the necessary tools and equipment are on hand.     

Performance Assessments of a Novel Well Design for Reducing Exposure to Bedrock‐Derived Arsenic

Arsenic in groundwater is a serious problem in New England, particularly for domestic well owners drawing water from bedrock aquifers. The overlying glacial aquifer generally has waters with low arsenic concentrations but is less used because of frequent loss of well water during dry periods and the vulnerability to surface‐sourced bacterial contamination. An alternative, novel design for shallow wells in glacial aquifers is intended to draw water primarily from unconsolidated glacial deposits, while being resistant to drought conditions and surface contamination. Its use could greatly reduce exposure to arsenic through drinking water for domestic use. Hypothetical numerical models were used to investigate the potential hydraulic performance of the new well design in reducing arsenic exposure. The aquifer system was divided into two parts, an upper section representing the glacial sediments and a lower section representing the bedrock. The location of the well, recharge conditions, and hydraulic properties were systematically varied in a series of simulations and the potential for arsenic contamination was quantified by analyzing groundwater flow paths to the well. The greatest risk of arsenic contamination occurred when the hydraulic conductivity of the bedrock aquifer was high, or where there was upward flow from the bedrock aquifer because of the position of the well in the flow system.     

The Sustainable Pumping Rate Concept: Lessons from a Case Study in Central Italy

The term sustainable pumping rate (SPR) is defined as the maximum pumping rate that can be maintained indefinitely without mining an aquifer, and is different from the concept of safe yield (SY), which takes into account also aspects related to the much wider concept of sustainability. The assessment of the SPR for the case study of Petrignano d'Assisi, an alluvial aquifer located in Central Italy, shows the need for a reliable estimate of the global water budget of the aquifer, particularly of the recharge under undisturbed conditions; however, the latter is not sufficient, because the SPR is affected also by the geometry of the aquifer, the hydraulic conductivity pattern, the variation of recharge/discharge ratio induced by the abstractions, and so on. All these aspects are analyzed by means of a numerical flow model calibrated both under undisturbed conditions (1974) and under exploitation conditions (1998 to 2004). The steady-state modeling results show that the relation between recharge and abstractions both at local and global scale is a key point in order to estimate a long-term SPR. Moreover, as it could be necessary to overexploit the aquifer for short periods, e.g., during drought episodes, the estimate of SPR must be performed also in transient conditions, in order to take into account the characteristic time of depletion and the successive recovery.     

Groundwater-supported evapotranspiration within glaciated watersheds under conditions of climate change

This paper analyzes the effects of geology and geomorphology on surface-water/-groundwater interactions, evapotranspiration, and recharge under conditions of long-term climatic change. Our analysis uses hydrologic data from the glaciated Crow Wing watershed in central Minnesota, USA, combined with a hydrologic model of transient coupled unsaturated/saturated flow (HYDRAT2D). Analysis of historical water-table (1970–1993) and lake-level (1924–2002) records indicates that larger amplitude and longer period fluctuations occur within the upland portions of watersheds due to the response of the aquifer system to relatively short-term climatic fluctuations. Under drought conditions, lake and water-table levels fell by as much as 2–4 m in the uplands but by 1 m in the lowlands. The same pattern can be seen on millennial time scales. Analysis of Holocene lake-core records indicates that Moody Lake, located near the outlet of the Crow Wing watershed, fell by as much as 4 m between about 4400 and 7000 yr BP. During the same time, water levels in Lake Mina, located near the upland watershed divide, fell by about 15 m. Reconstructed Holocene climate as represented by HYDRAT2D gives somewhat larger drops (6 and 24 m for Moody Lake and Lake Mina, respectively). The discrepancy is probably due to the effect of three-dimensional flow. A sensitivity analysis was also carried out to study how aquifer hydraulic conductivity and land-surface topography can influence water-table fluctuations, wetlands formation, and evapotranspiration. The models were run by recycling a wet year (1985, 87 cm annual precipitation) over a 10-year period followed by 20 years of drier and warmer climate (1976, 38 cm precipitation). Model results indicated that groundwater-supported evapotranspiration accounted for as much as 12% (10 cm) of evapotranspiration. The aquifers of highest hydraulic conductivity had the least amount of groundwater-supported evapotranspiration owing to a deep water table. Recharge was even more sensitive to aquifer hydraulic conductivity, especially in the lowland regions. These findings have important implications for paleoclimatic studies, because the hydrologic response of a surface-water body will vary across the watershed to a given climate signal.     

Analysis of an unconfined aquifer subject to asynchronous dual-tide propagation

Most published solutions for aquifer responses to ocean tides focus on the one-sided attenuation of the signal as it propagates inland. However, island aquifers experience periodic forcing from the entire coast, which can lead to integrated effects of different tidal signals, especially on narrow high-permeability islands. In general, studies disregard a potential time lag as the tidal wave sweeps around the island. We present a one-dimensional analytical solution to the ground water flow equation subject to asynchronous and asymmetric oscillating head conditions on opposite boundaries and test it on data from an unconfined volcanic aquifer in Maui. The solution considers sediment-damping effects at the coastline. The response of Maui Aquifers indicate that water table elevations near the center of the aquifer are influenced by a combination of tides from opposite coasts. A better match between the observed ground water head and the theoretical response can be obtained with the proposed dual-tide solution than with single-sided solutions. Hydraulic diffusivity was estimated to be 2.3 × 10⁷ m²/d. This translates into a hydraulic conductivity of 500 m/d, assuming a specific yield of 0.04 and an aquifer thickness of 1.8 km. A numerical experiment confirmed the hydraulic diffusivity value and showed that the y -intercepts of the modal attenuation and phase differences estimated by regression can approximate damping factors caused by low-permeability units at the boundary.     

Analytic solutions to transient groundwater flow under time-dependent sources in a heterogeneous aquifer bounded by fluctuating river stage

Analytical solutions for the water table and lateral discharge in a heterogeneous unconfined aquifer with time-dependent source and fluctuating river stage were derived and compared with those in an equivalent homogeneous aquifer. The heterogeneous aquifer considered consists of a number of sections of different hydraulic conductivity values. The source term and river stage were assumed to be time-dependent but spatially uniform. The solutions derived is useful in studying various groundwater flow problems in a horizontally heterogeneous aquifer since the spatially piecewise-constant hydraulic conductivity and temporally piecewise-constant recharge and lateral discharge can be used to quantify variations in these processes commonly observed in reality. Applying the solutions derived to an aquifer of three sections of different hydraulic conductivity values shown that (1) the aquifer heterogeneity significantly increases the spatial variation of the water table and thus its gradient but it has little effect on lateral discharge in the case of temporally and spatially uniform recharge, (2) the time-dependent but spatially uniform recharge increases the temporal variation of groundwater table over the entire aquifer but its effect on lateral discharge is limited in the zone near the river, and (3) the effect of river stage fluctuation on the water table and lateral discharge is limited in the zone near the river and the effect of the heterogeneity is to increase lateral discharge to or recharge from the river.     

Seasonal variation of infiltration rates through pond bed in a managed aquifer recharge system in St-André, Belgium

In Belgium, IWVA uses managed aquifer recharge (MAR) to recharge the aquifer with treated wastewater generated from the communities to sustain the potable water supply on the Belgian coast. This MAR facility is faced with a challenge of reduced infiltration rates during the winter season when pond water temperatures near 4°C. This study involves the identification of the predominant factor influencing the rate of infiltration through the pond bed. Several factors, including pumping rates, natural recharge, tidal influences of the North Sea and pond-water temperature, were identified as potential causes for variation of the recharge rate. Correlation statistics and linear regression analysis were used to determine the sensitivity of the infiltration rate to the aforementioned factors. Two groundwater flow models were developed in visual MODFLOW to simulate the water movement under the pond bed and to obtain the differences in flux to track the effects of variation of hydraulic conductivity during the two seasons. A 32% reduction in vertical hydraulic gradient in the top portion of the aquifer was observed in winter, causing the recharge rates to fluctuate. Results showed that water temperature caused a 30% increase in hydraulic conductivity in summer as compared with winter and has the maximum impact on infiltration rate. Cyclic variations in water viscosity, occurring because of seasonal temperature changes, influence the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the pond bed. Results from the models confirm the impact on infiltration rate by temperature-influenced hydraulic conductivity.     

Quantifying threats to groundwater resources in the Republic of Maldives Part I: Future rainfall patterns and sea‐level rise

Reserves of fresh groundwater on atoll islands are extremely fragile due to climatic and anthropogenic stresses. Of major concern is the quantity of water to be available in the coming decades under the influence of variable rainfall patterns, rising sea level, environmental conditions, and expected population growth that depends on groundwater resources. In this study, a 3‐dimensional numerical modelling approach using the SEAWAT modelling code is used to estimate freshwater lens volume fluctuation for 4 representative islands in the Republic of Maldives in response to long‐term changes in rainfall, sea‐level rise (SLR), and anthropogenic stresses such as groundwater pumping and short‐term impacts from tsunami‐induced marine overwash events. This work is divided into 2 papers. This first paper presents numerical model set‐up and calibration, and the effect of future rainfall patterns and SLR on fresh groundwater reserves. The second paper focuses on marine overwash events. The results of simulated future freshwater lens volume presented in the first study contribute to efficient groundwater resources planning and management for the Maldives in the upcoming decades. Freshwater lenses in small atoll islands (area < 0.6 km²) are shown to have a strong variability trends in the upcoming decades with expected reduction in lens volume between 11% and 36% due to SLR. In contrast, freshwater lenses in larger atoll islands (area > 1.0 km²) are shown to have less variability to changing patterns with expected reduction in lens volume between 8% and 26% due to SLR. Study results can provide water resource managers with valuable findings for consideration in water security measures.     

Analysis of water movement in paddy rice fields (I) experimental studies

For the purpose of increasing the amount of ground water recharge, we investigated the hydraulic characteristics of water infiltration in a flooded paddy rice field in Ten-Chung, Chung-Hwa county, Taiwan. Experimental results based on mini-tensiometers and double ring infiltrometer measurements indicated that the least permeable layer occurred at the interface of the puddled topsoil and non-puddled subsoil. The average thickness of this layer was about 7.5 cm and saturated hydraulic conductivity ranged from 0.034 to 0.083 cm/day. Vertical infiltration flow was saturated within the plow sole layer and became unsaturated in the subsoil below the plow sole layer. The hydraulic conductivity of the subsoil, 20–30 times greater than that of the plow sole layer, revealed that the subsoil was more permeable than the plow sole layer. In situ measurements also demonstrated that breakage of the plow sole layer increased infiltration rate by a factor of 3.7. Increasing ponded water depth from 6 to 16 cm increased infiltration 1.5 fold. It is suggested that using the fallow paddy rice fields without puddling is a feasible way to enhance groundwater recharge, but for cultivated paddy rice fields, breaking the plow sole needs further study in terms of its recoverability and because of the potential contamination of the shallow aquifer by agrochemicals. The experimental data can be applied in numerical simulation models to quantify detailed water movement mechanisms and accurately estimate the amount of ground water recharge in paddy rice fields.     

Predicting Future Groundwater Resources of Coral Atoll Islands

Fresh groundwater reserves on small coral islands are under continual threat of salinization and contamination because of droughts, storm‐surge overwash events, over‐extraction, island community urbanization, and sea level rise. Whereas storm‐surge overwash events can cause sudden groundwater salinization, long‐term changes in rainfall patterns and sea level elevation have the potential of rendering these islands uninhabitable in the coming decades. This study demonstrates the use of a tested freshwater lens thickness simulator to estimate the groundwater resources of a set of atoll islands in the coming decades. The method uses ranges of projected rates of annual rainfall and sea level rise (SLR) to provide a range of probable lens thickness for each island. Projected rainfall is provided by General Circulation Models that accurately replicate the historical rainfall patterns in the geographic region of the islands. Methodology is applied to 68 atoll islands in the Federated States of Micronesia. These islands have widths that range between 150 and 1000 m, and experience annual rainfall rates of between 2.8 and 4.8 m. Results indicate that under average conditions of SLR, beach slope, and rainfall, almost half of the island will experience a 20% decrease in lens thickness by the year 2050. For worst‐case scenarios (high SLR, low rainfall), average decrease in lens thickness is 55%, with almost half of the islands experiencing a decrease of greater than 75% and half of the islands having a lens thickness less than 1.0 m. Small islands (widths less than 400 m) are particularly vulnerable because of shoreline recession. Groundwater on islands in the western region is less vulnerable to SLR because of a projected increase in rainfall during the coming decades. Results indicate the vulnerability of small islands to changing climatic conditions, and can be used for water resources management and community planning. Methodology can be applied to any group of islands as a first approximation of the effect of future climate conditions on groundwater resources. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.